Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats showed a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil prices declined due to the expected increase in domestic imports following signs of eased China - Canada trade relations. Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose slightly. Given the seasonal consumption off - peak and the upcoming summer vacation in southern sales areas, with normal soybean import rhythm and high - volume factory crushing, soybean oil inventory will further accumulate. Domestic oil and fat inventories are slightly on the loose side, and consumption is average. There is a high possibility of futures prices oscillating and consolidating [8][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Analysis - As of June 05, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 7,980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [9]. - As of June 05, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of June 05, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [12]. Other Data - As of May 30, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 6.40 million tons to 84.80 million tons. On June 4, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 3.00 million tons to 36.30 million tons [16]. - As of June 5, 2025, the port - imported soybean inventory was 5,895,030 tons [20]. - As of June 05, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 304 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of June 05, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 404 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of June 05, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 168 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats oscillated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract rose 1.31% to close at 7,738 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 0.62% to close at 8,110 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 2.23% to close at 9,140 yuan/ton [5][30]. - In May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was estimated to increase by 3.07%. The Malaysian palm oil rose 1.01%. Meanwhile, 6 - 7 months in 2025 saw concentrated soybean purchases by Chinese enterprises. It is expected that 12 million tons of soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August. Based on last year's average monthly soybean crushing volume of 8.7 million tons from June to August, the domestic soybean commercial inventory is expected to increase by 3 - 4 million tons by the end of August. The US soybeans rose 1.51% this week [6][7][30].

Core Viewpoint - The drought situation in the U.S. Midwest is gradually easing, which is beneficial for the growth of new season crops, although there are concerns about warm and dry weather affecting recently planted soybeans [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - As of the week ending May 29, U.S. old crop soybean export sales were 194,300 tons, close to the lower end of market expectations [1] - New crop sales were only 3,500 tons, indicating a lack of significant overseas demand [1] - The market is optimistic about U.S.-China trade relations, which could lead to increased imports of U.S. agricultural products, alleviating soybean supply concerns [1] Group 2: Argentine Soybean Harvest - Argentina has completed 89% of its soybean harvest, an increase of 4% from the previous week [1] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its production forecast at 50 million tons, slightly above the USDA's estimate of 49 million tons [1] Group 3: Malaysian Palm Oil Production - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.07% month-on-month from May 1 to 31, with peninsula production up by 4.05% and East Malaysia production up by 1.90% [1] - April export volume rose by 24.6%, while March production increased by 17.66% [1] Group 4: Futures Market Trends - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures rose moderately, closing about 0.5% higher, reaching a one-week high due to optimism in U.S.-China trade relations [1] - CBOT soybean oil futures experienced mixed results, closing about 0.3% lower due to weak export sales [1] - Domestic and international palm oil futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations due to increased production, while crude oil prices stabilize, creating a favorable atmosphere for oilseeds [1]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-06 油脂结构调整，维持震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8126.00元/吨，环比变化-4元，幅度-0.05%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7676.00元 /吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.16%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9152.00元/吨，环比变化+51.00元，幅度+0.56%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8480.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.47%，现货基差P09+354.00，环比变化-36.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7880.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+204.00，环比变 化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9350.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.75%，现货基差OI09+198.00， 环比变化+19.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至6月3日当周，约16%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此 前一周为17%。巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）基于船运计划数据预测，6月1日至7日期间，巴西大豆出口量为 490.1 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-06-05 中加代表会面，菜系进一步下行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8130.00元/吨，环比变化-66元，幅度-0.81%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7688.00 元/吨，环比变化-4.00元，幅度-0.05%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9101.00元/吨，环比变化-171.00元，幅度-1.84%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8520.00元/吨，环比变化-130.00元，幅度-1.50%，现货基差P09+390.00，环比变化 -64.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7900.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+212.00， 环比变化-16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9280.00元/吨，环比变化-170.00元，幅度-1.80%，现货基差 OI09+179.00，环比变化+1.00元。 风险 政策变化 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(6月船期)C&F价格1048美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；阿根廷豆油(8月船期)C&F 价格10 ...

6 月 5 日山东德州报价 2.7 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.02 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期端午节后需求转弱，叠加梅雨季来临，鸡蛋容易发生质量问 题，渠道及下游采购心态偏弱，蛋价支撑有限，不过近期淘汰有所加速，一 定程度缓解供应压力，各环节库存有所消化，关注蛋价跌至低位后冷库入库 积极性。中期来看，25 年 3-4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 7-8 月新开 产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需 要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长 期来看，经过上半年养殖利润不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季 度新开产或环比减少，关注三季度淘汰及鸡病情况。短期节后需求转弱，蛋 价支撑不足，三季度供需双增，蛋价反弹承压，四季度供应压力或有所缓 解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月后限仓，观望为 主，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待，养殖企业等待反 弹逢高套保，08 关注 3750-3800 压力，关注饲料端及淘汰扰动；10 关注 逢低多机会。关注淘鸡、鸡病、天气等因素（数据来源：蛋 e 网、同花顺 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-06-04 中加贸易摩擦或有缓和，菜系价格承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8196.00元/吨，环比变化+136元，幅度+1.69%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7692.00 元/吨，环比变化+54.00元，幅度+0.71%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9272.00元/吨，环比变化-76.00元，幅度-0.81%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8650.00元/吨，环比变化+180.00元，幅度+2.13%，现货基差P09+454.00，环比 变化+44.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.89%，现货基差Y09+228.00， 环比变化+16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9450.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.84%，现货基差 OI09+178.00，环比变化-4.00元。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期市场咨询汇总： 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚5月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1069643吨，较 上月同期出口的8253 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-05-28 策略 中性 进口大豆库存回落，油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8044.00元/吨，环比变化+90元，幅度+1.13%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7740.00 元/吨，环比变化+36.00元，幅度+0.47%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9444.00元/吨，环比变化+62.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8450.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.36%，现货基差P09+406.00，环比变 化-60.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.13%，现货基差Y09+180.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9620.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.63%，现货基差 OI09+176.00，环比变化-2.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：中国粮油商务网数据显示，截止到2025年第21周末，国内进口压榨菜油库存量为90.0万吨，较 上周的92.9万吨减少2.9万吨，环比下降3.17%；合同量为11.6万吨，较上周的12.7万吨减 ...

5 月 28 日山东德州报价 2.9 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.2 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期随着端午临近，鸡蛋性价比尚可，终端消费预计增加，渠道及 下游采购需求或增加，叠加淘汰有所加速，缓解供应压力，预计对蛋价形成 支撑，不过 5 月新开产量较大，供应压力仍较大，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存 储，节后进入梅雨季节，渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体 端午节日有利好，但高供应叠加天气，蛋价走势承压。中期来看，25 年 2- 4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前 期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远 期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长期来看，经过上半年养殖利润 不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季度新开产或环比减少，关注三 季度换羽淘汰及鸡病情况。短期端午节提振，蛋价存支撑，不过供应较为充 足叠加需求转弱，蛋价走势承压，三季度供需双增，区间操作为主，四季度 供应压力或有所缓解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月 后限仓，谨慎追空，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 饲料养殖 ...

油脂：市场紧张情绪缓和 油脂小幅回升 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 3、据外媒报道，咨询公司 Datagro 预估巴西 2024/25 年度大豆产量将达到 1.720 亿吨， 此前预测为 1.712 亿吨。预估巴西 2024/25 年度玉米产量为 1.327 亿吨，此前预测为 1.317 亿吨。 4、加拿大油籽加工商协会（COPA）发布的油籽压榨数据显示，2025 年 04 月，加拿大 油菜籽压榨量为 919345.0 吨，环比降 10.27%；菜籽油产量为 390276.0 吨，环比降 10.5%； 数据来源：Wind、金石期货研究所 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、上周我国菜油、棕榈油商业库存下降，豆油增加，三大油脂库存整体下降。5 月 23 日，三大油脂商业库存 185 万吨，周环比下降 1 万吨，月环比上升 8 万吨，同比上升 10 万 吨。其中豆油库存 70 万吨，周环比上升 6 万吨，月环比上升 10 万吨，同比下降 22 万吨； 菜籽油 79 万吨，周环比下降 2 万吨，月环比上升 2 万吨，同比上升 35 万吨；棕榈 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Dalian Commodity Exchange's oilseed futures prices are weakening due to dual negative pressures, suggesting that Malaysian palm oil may further decline [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the current market conditions affecting oilseed futures, particularly the impact of external factors leading to price drops [1] - It suggests that the market may experience additional downward pressure, indicating a potential for further declines in palm oil prices [1]