Group 1 - The report emphasizes three main investment themes in the building materials industry: the stock chain, the Africa chain, and the AI chain. The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply varieties, with a significant shift in consumer demand expected as renovation needs rise to nearly 70% by 2030 [4][7][26] - The Africa chain highlights the undervalued potential of leading companies in the African market, benefiting from population growth and urbanization, with a projected threefold market expansion for cement [9][10] - The AI chain anticipates an upgrade in the special electronic cloth industry, driven by the transition from Low-Dk to higher-grade products, indicating substantial domestic replacement opportunities due to supply shortages [10][10] Group 2 - The stock chain indicates that the renovation demand is currently around 50% and is expected to reach nearly 70% by 2030, which will drive the industry back to historical demand levels [7][26][28] - The report notes that the supply of consumer building materials is expected to exit significantly, with production levels for various materials projected to be at 90% to 62% of their peak by 2024 [7][37] - The report identifies companies like Huaxin Cement and West Cement as key players in the African market, which is expected to see high demand due to ongoing urbanization and infrastructure development [9][10] Group 3 - The report suggests that the renovation market could reach 20 billion square meters annually, driven by a shorter renovation cycle and an increase in the aging housing stock [28][31] - The report highlights that leading companies in the consumer building materials sector are expected to show revenue and profit resilience, with some companies already demonstrating growth despite industry downturns [8][41] - The report indicates that the waterproof and coating sectors are under significant pressure, with the waterproof materials market expected to see a notable decline in production by 2024 [45][58]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货12月24日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation. Affected by the export license management policy, the prices of finished products still face some short - term pressure, and the policy impact is expected to be gradually digested later. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The macro - level is still in the policy observation period, and attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to mainly operate within an oscillatory range. The support at the lower level is relatively solid in the short term. After the rebound of the futures price, the basis has shrunk [5]. - The market sentiment of the black commodity chain has clearly warmed up. The future trends of ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon are mainly led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese - silicon and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Also, the impact of "dual - carbon" policies on the supply of ferrous alloys needs attention [8][9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest region [12]. - The futures price of polysilicon is expected to be unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [15]. - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to weak demand and limited capacity contraction [18]. - The soda ash market's rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [20]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3136 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.255%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 60684 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.597429 million lots, an increase of 17388 lots. The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: This week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. The overall terminal demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3285 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.121%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 104293 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.229562 million lots, an increase of 31165 lots. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of hot - rolled coils has significantly declined, the apparent demand has weakened slightly, the inventory has continued to fall, but the inventory pressure is still relatively prominent. The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 779.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.13% (+1.00). The position changed by - 317 lots to 553,700 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 920,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.78 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period decreased month - on - month. The daily average pig iron production continued to decline. The port inventory continued to increase, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within an oscillatory range [5]. Ferrous Alloys (Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese - Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On December 24, the main manganese - silicon contract (SM603) maintained an oscillation, closing up 0.17% at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures basis, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. Future trends are led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to cost - push from manganese ore and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) closed up 0.14% at 5656 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 44 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Due to increasing production losses, some enterprises have shut down or switched production, leading to a supply decline and a certain rebound in the futures price. Future trends are led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to supply contraction due to losses and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) was 8860 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.91% (+80). The weighted contract position changed by - 2859 lots to 398,154 lots. The spot price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, both with no change. The basis of the main contract was 340 yuan/ton for 553 and - 10 yuan/ton for 421 [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in the short term. The weekly production decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2605) was 58300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.56% (- 925). The weighted contract position changed by - 12830 lots to 210,746 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were stable, with a basis of - 5950 yuan/ton for the main contract. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has introduced position limits and added delivery warehouses [13][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon production in December is expected to continue to decline, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure is difficult to relieve before the Spring Festival. The futures price is expected to be unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1048 yuan/ton, up 1.95% (+20). The large - plate price in North China was 1020 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1060 yuan, down 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million cases, up 0.57%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 28192 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 31578 lots [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand recovery is still weak, and the market is in a supply - demand loosening pattern. The market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1184 yuan/ton, up 0.77% (+9). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1137 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 0.57%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 13051 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 14971 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand is weak, the factory inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is low, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. Glass prices are oscillating upward with increased production line maintenance, while soda ash prices are oscillating narrowly. The sentiment of waiting and seeing is growing for ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon manganese, and their alloy prices are consolidating [1][3]. - For glass, the supply is contracting due to cold - repairs in some production lines in late December, but the supply contraction is insufficient, the rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is still an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. High inventory also suppresses prices. For soda ash, although production has declined, it is still at a relatively high level, and with new production lines coming into operation, supply may increase further. High inventory and potential cold - repairs of float glass production lines pose challenges to heavy soda demand [1]. - For ferrosilicon manganese, enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. The cost support has weakened. For ferrosilicon, production decreased significantly last week, inventory pressure has been relieved, and the fundamental contradictions have eased [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: Futures oscillated upward yesterday, while the market transaction center of spot goods moved downward, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on demand. Some production lines are expected to undergo cold - repairs in late December, leading to a contraction in glass supply [1]. - Soda Ash: Futures oscillated narrowly yesterday, and downstream buyers showed strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, mainly purchasing for rigid demand [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Production is oscillating at a high level, the supply contraction is insufficient, rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. High inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to glass cold - repair situations and the impact of macro - policies on speculative demand [1]. - Soda Ash: Production has declined but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. With new production lines coming into operation, supply may increase further. High inventory and potential cold - repairs of float glass production lines pose challenges to heavy soda demand. Attention should be paid to downstream demand situations [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Futures oscillated narrowly yesterday, and spot prices were consolidating at a high level. Steel tenders are ongoing, with prices in the northern market ranging from 5,520 - 5,570 yuan/ton and in the southern market from 5,620 - 5,670 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Futures maintained narrow - range oscillations yesterday. Steel tenders are imminent, and spot prices are stable. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. Port manganese ore inventories continue to rise, and the total manganese element inventory has slightly increased, weakening the cost support. Attention should be paid to cost support and production changes [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Production decreased significantly last week as enterprises actively adjusted their production rhythms to cope with declining demand. Inventory pressure has been relieved, and the fundamental contradictions have eased. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, cost - end changes, and regional policies [3]. Strategy - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". For specific varieties, the outlook for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon is "oscillation", while the outlook for coking coal is "oscillation with a slight upward trend" [5][7][8][10][12][13][15][17] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry have limited highlights. However, the policy tone remains positive, and there are still expectations for winter storage and restocking. The futures market is expected to have room for a rebound from low levels, but the upside space is limited. The overall market presents an oscillatory pattern [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - Steel is in the off - season with weak supply and demand. Although there is a slight improvement in demand and inventory is decreasing, the inventory level is still high year - on - year, and the upside space for the futures market is limited. Iron ore has a strong support at the bottom of the futures market due to the expectation of steel mill复产 and winter storage, but the port inventory is accumulating, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. Coal and coke are in a state of low - level valuation repair. Coke's supply - demand structure may tighten, and coking coal's fundamentals will continue to improve marginally [1][2] 2. Sub - sectors Analysis Iron Element - Iron ore: The demand support from molten iron is weakening, the port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills have not started restocking. The upstream - downstream game is intense, and the short - term ore price is expected to oscillate. Scrap steel: Supply is decreasing while demand is stable. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side has shown signs of stabilization. With the expected steel mill复产 in January and the start of winter storage and restocking in the middle and lower reaches, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the import pressure will ease in January. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the futures valuation still has room for repair [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of the manganese silicon market remains loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upside space for the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation in the medium term. Ferrosilicon: The upstream supply pressure has eased, but the market has weak supply and demand in the off - season. The upside space for the futures price should not be overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. Soda ash: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply surplus pattern will further intensify in the long term, with the price center continuing to decline [3] 3. Index Information - On December 24, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures' commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index all increased, with increases of 1.08%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.22% on that day, 0.35% in the past 5 days, 0.04% in the past month, and decreased by 6.04% since the beginning of the year [104][106]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for achieving a reasonable recovery in prices, emphasizing that this has become a significant policy goal in China since the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference [1]. Group 1: Price Trends and Economic Context - The current cycle of price stagnation began in 2012, with China's Producer Price Index (PPI) entering negative territory since 2022, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained between 0-1% [2]. - From May 2012, China's PPI diverged from that of Europe and the US, entering negative territory for 4 years and 5 months until October 2016, primarily due to structural distortions in the economy and a significant increase in manufacturing output [2][5]. - The increase in China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of global output rose from 8.6% in 2004 to 22.3% in 2012, while the population's share of global numbers declined, indicating an oversupply of goods amid a shrinking consumer base [2]. Group 2: Supply-Side Structural Reforms - To address the prolonged negative PPI, supply-side structural reforms were initiated in 2015, focusing on reducing excess capacity in key sectors like steel and coal, driven by the need to balance supply and demand [5]. - The period from 2016 to 2017 saw the most significant push for these reforms, with a focus on deleveraging and reducing inventory and production capacity [5]. Group 3: Recent Economic Developments - After a brief recovery in PPI starting in October 2016, external factors such as the US-China trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic led to renewed declines in PPI, with the index entering negative territory again from late 2019 to the end of 2020 [9]. - The article notes that from 2012 to 2025, China experienced approximately 8.5 years of negative PPI, with persistent overcapacity being a fundamental issue [9]. Group 4: Challenges in Price Recovery - The current downturn in PPI since October 2022 is characterized by a shift from expansion to contraction in household balance sheets, coinciding with a downturn in the real estate market, which has compounded the issues of overcapacity and insufficient effective demand [14]. - The article highlights that the decline in production of certain goods, such as liquor, reflects broader demographic trends and consumption downgrades, complicating the path to price recovery [14][15]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - The Central Economic Work Conference has emphasized the need to expand domestic demand, particularly through consumption, to facilitate price recovery [22]. - The article argues that increasing consumer demand is essential for price recovery, suggesting that measures should focus on enhancing employment and income levels, particularly for low- and middle-income groups [32][33]. - It is noted that the structural issues in income distribution and the ongoing real estate downturn present significant challenges to achieving a reasonable price recovery [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 玻璃纯碱：现货需求偏弱，玻碱窄幅震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 供需与逻辑：上周硅铁产量大幅回落，企业主动调整生产节奏，应对需求下滑。硅铁企业库存压力得到缓解，硅 铁基本面矛盾有所缓和。关注后续硅铁去库情况、成本端变化及产区政策情况。 策略 硅锰方面：震荡 硅铁方面：震荡 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the finished steel prices continued to fluctuate. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to export license management but are expected to gradually digest the policy impact. The willingness for winter storage is low this year, and there may not be large - scale restocking. Attention should be paid to the possible marginal impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply of overseas shipments has decreased, the demand for molten iron has declined, and the port inventory has increased while the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall macro sentiment has improved. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate following the market, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to decline, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations [20]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [22]. 3. Summary by Catalog Steel - **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60,684 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract decreased by 11,933 lots to 1.580041 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.122%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 104,293 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract increased by 9846 lots to 1.198397 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy View** - Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. Hot - rolled coil production dropped significantly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory continued to fall. The export license policy aims to promote the high - quality development of the steel industry. Overall, the terminal demand is weak, the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to the policy but are expected to gradually digest it. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness is low [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 778.50 yuan/ton, down 0.38% (- 3.00). The position increased by 2081 lots to 554,000 lots. The weighted position was 928,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy View** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, while those from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily molten iron output continued to decline, and the steel mill profitability remained stable. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory reached a five - year low. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information** - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 88 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed at 5648 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 52 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View** - The macro sentiment has improved. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but most factors are already priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand is basically balanced, and the supply has decreased due to production losses. The future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8780 yuan/ton, up 2.15% (+ 185). The weighted position decreased by 15,701 lots to 401,013 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 420 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy View** - The price is expected to fluctuate following the market. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 59,225 yuan/ton, up 0.65% (+ 380). The weighted position decreased by 10,996 lots to 223,576 lots. The spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type re - feed material was 52.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 6875 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening positions from December 25 [14][16]. - **Strategy View** - The supply is expected to decline, but the decrease may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high before the Spring Festival. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information** - The main contract of glass closed at 1028 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 0.29% (- 3). The North China large - plate price was 1020 yuan, down 10; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, up 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,833 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 21,478 short positions [19]. - **Strategy View** - The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations due to insufficient terminal demand and increasing inventory pressure [20]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information** - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1175 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 0.51% (+ 6). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, up 18. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 5000 tons (+ 0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory down 18,800 tons and the light - soda inventory up 23,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9114 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10,651 short positions [21]. - **Strategy View** - The downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited due to cost reduction and low profitability. Short positions can be considered [22].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-24 淡季现实与冬储预期博弈，盘⾯震荡运 ⾏ 钢⼚复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，铁矿盘⾯下⽅⽀撑较强，煤焦估值 低位修复。但⽬前淡季钢材供需双弱，铁矿港⼝库存累积，煤焦补库 空间有限，基本⾯亮点有限，盘⾯继续上涨乏⼒，价格震荡运⾏。 钢厂复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，铁矿盘面下方支撑较强，煤焦估值 低位修复。但目前淡季钢材供需双弱，铁矿港口库存累积，煤焦补库 空间有限，基本面亮点有限，盘面继续上涨乏力，价格震荡运行。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续下滑，刚需支撑减弱，港口库存累积，钢 厂补库未至，上下游博弈较强，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供减需 稳，钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废 钢需求仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，现货继续提降预期较 低，随着焦钢企业原料冬储补库逐渐开启，现货价格将有更强支撑， 预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，焦煤基 本面将延续边际改善，盘面估值仍拥有修复空间。 3. 合金方面：锰硅市场供需宽松格局难改，上游库存压力较大 ...