Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to see a gradual improvement in profitability, particularly in the fiberglass segment, as supply pressures ease and demand remains resilient [6][15] - The report highlights the importance of domestic demand policies and the potential for recovery in the housing market, which could positively impact the demand for home improvement materials [17] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials - Fiberglass profitability is anticipated to improve in the medium term as supply shocks diminish and industry price stabilization efforts gain traction [15] - The cement market is experiencing a temporary decline in demand due to seasonal factors, but a rebound is expected as supply-side discipline strengthens [20][21] - The average cement price in China is currently 349.2 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and a significant drop of 53.2 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year [21][22] 2. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the construction materials sector has shown resilience despite external uncertainties such as trade tensions, with government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption expected to support recovery [17] - The report emphasizes the need for industry self-discipline to manage supply and maintain profitability, particularly in the cement sector [14][20] 3. Market Performance - The construction materials sector outperformed the broader market indices, with a weekly gain of 2.66% compared to declines in the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices [5] - The report suggests that the valuation of leading companies in the sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery as industry policies take effect [14][17] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector, such as China National Building Material and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and policy support [14][18] - It also highlights the potential for growth in companies involved in advanced materials and technology applications, particularly in the context of domestic demand recovery [6][17]

Core Insights - The report highlights the current trends in the non-metallic building materials sector, including price changes, inventory levels, and production rates across various materials [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Performance - The national average price for high-standard cement is 349 RMB/ton, down 53 RMB/ton year-on-year and down 2 RMB/ton month-on-month, with an average shipment rate of 44.5%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month [1][4]. - The average price of float glass is 1289.81 RMB/ton, which represents an increase of 65.07 RMB/ton or 5.31% month-on-month [1][4]. - The average price for 2.0mm coated panels remains stable at around 13 RMB/square meter [1][4]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Metrics - The inventory days for key monitored provinces in the glass production sector are approximately 24.8 days, a decrease of 1.38 days from the previous week [1][4]. - The concrete mixing station's capacity utilization rate is reported at 7.48%, down 0.19 percentage points month-on-month [4]. - The average price for domestic 2400tex alkali-free winding direct yarn is 3524.75 RMB/ton, remaining stable, while the mainstream price for electronic cloth is between 4.3-4.5 RMB/m, reflecting a 6% increase [4]. Group 3: Company Developments and Recommendations - China National Materials Technology announced plans to raise no more than 4.48 billion RMB for projects related to low dielectric fiber cloth production and to repay government funds [6]. - Huaxin Cement plans to grant 257,800 restricted stocks to 11 incentive targets and intends to repurchase shares worth between 32.25 million and 64.5 million RMB, with a maximum repurchase price of 25 RMB/share [6]. - The report continues to recommend investment in African building materials, fiberglass, and electrolytic aluminum sectors, highlighting companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement as key players in international competition [2].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Financial Conditions**: Domestic financial conditions are stabilizing, with loose fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stabilizing the capital market, which helps to build consensus, boost expectations, and attract foreign capital [1][3] - **Investment Focus**: The main investment themes include technology, particularly AI innovation and semiconductor equipment, as well as adjusted financial sectors and industries like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and new energy [1][4] Company Insights - **Aviation Industry**: During the 2025 National Day holiday, air passenger traffic significantly increased, with ticket prices rising beyond expectations. The aviation industry is expected to see profits surpassing 2019 levels in Q3 2025, contingent on the recovery of business travel demand [1][5] - **LNG Shipping Market**: The LNG shipping market is expected to perform well in Q4 2025, benefiting from OPEC's production increase and additional supply from South America and West Africa, indicating a rebound in profitability for shipping companies [1][7] - **Coal Market**: The coal market is experiencing a dual improvement in supply and demand, with prices expected to rise gradually starting in the second half of 2026. The focus on coal stocks is increasing due to supply constraints and unexpected demand [1][14][15][16] Key Industry Trends - **Oil Prices**: Recent declines in oil prices are attributed to geopolitical factors, tariffs, and OPEC+ production increases. Future price movements will depend on the attitudes of oil-producing countries and geopolitical developments [1][8][9] - **Steel Industry**: The steel sector is expected to perform well in Q4, with historical data suggesting that policy-related factors can lead to year-end rallies. The industry is also seeing a shift towards a more stable supply-demand balance, with potential profit increases in the coming years [1][19][20] Recommendations - **Investment Recommendations**: - **Aviation**: Focus on companies that can capitalize on the recovery of business travel and rising ticket prices [1][5] - **LNG Shipping**: Companies like China Merchants Energy and China Ship Leasing are recommended due to expected profitability rebounds [1][7] - **Coal**: Companies like China Shenhua and other major state-owned enterprises are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for profit growth [1][18][17] - **Steel**: Recommended companies include Baosteel and Hualing Steel, which have cost advantages and strong market positions [1][20] Additional Insights - **Geopolitical Impact**: The current geopolitical landscape is influencing market dynamics, with clearer boundaries around trade risks compared to earlier in the year. This clarity is seen as an opportunity for investors to increase their holdings in Chinese assets [2][3] - **Consumer Building Materials**: The consumer building materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to perform well despite a challenging market environment [1][24][25] This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of various industries and companies.

Summary of Qibin Group Conference Call Industry Overview - The float glass industry is currently facing a weak peak season, with most companies operating at breakeven or experiencing cash flow losses, particularly in high-cost regions and gas-dependent enterprises [2][4][8] - Policy interventions and environmental inspections may accelerate the market clearing on the supply side, potentially leading to price recovery within 1-3 months [2][4] Company Insights - Qibin Group's core competitiveness lies in its extreme cost advantages in float glass and photovoltaic glass, achieved through self-sufficient silica sand resources and lean management practices [2][5] - The company is replicating its float glass model in the photovoltaic glass sector, with new capacities of 1,200 tons large-scale pool kilns, supported by upstream mineral and pipeline gas resources [2][5][11] - Qibin Group's float glass business has undergone rapid expansion (2011-2015), internal optimization (2016-2018), and a strategic restart of expansion (2019-present), currently holding the highest gross margin in the industry [2][6] Financial Performance - Float glass price fluctuations are primarily due to supply-demand mismatches, with rigid supply and linear demand changes [7] - As of early 2024, profits have hovered around breakeven, with high pipeline gas costs weakening profitability [7][8] - The company’s gross margin per box is approximately 13.4 yuan, significantly higher than the industry average of around 0.7 yuan [8] Market Dynamics - The fourth quarter is expected to see increased expectations for anti-involution policies and environmental production limits, which may disrupt supply [8] - The introduction of stricter energy consumption standards and green building methods is expected to lead to the exit of inefficient capacities, forming a dynamic balance in the market [3][8] Future Outlook - Qibin Group is experiencing a recovery point in profitability within the photovoltaic glass sector after a period of industry losses [10] - The company plans to enhance the scale effect of its photovoltaic glass business, optimize operational efficiency, and explore new markets in pharmaceutical glass and electronic glass [12] - The company’s long-term competitive edge is its extreme cost control capability, ensuring its leading position in the existing market and providing stable growth in new markets [12] Key Takeaways - Qibin Group is well-positioned to benefit from policy-driven price recovery and has a robust strategy to replicate its success in float glass to photovoltaic glass [4][10] - The company’s strategic focus on resource layout, energy cost control, and advanced production technology positions it favorably against competitors [11][12]

Market Overview - After the National Day holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced fluctuations, initially surpassing 3900 points before retreating, indicating a market adjustment phase [1] - The construction materials and public utilities sectors showed resilience, prompting discussions about a potential shift in market style [1] Institutional Investment Trends - Recent disclosures from listed companies' Q3 reports and share buyback announcements revealed significant repositioning by well-known fund managers [1] - On October 10, major indices in A-shares collectively retreated, while the construction materials sector strengthened, with Huanxin Cement (600801) seeing a notable increase in shareholding by institutional investors [1] - Huanxin Cement's stock price surged over 70% since July, correlating with increased institutional interest, as evidenced by the entry of the Fuguo Tianhui Select Growth Fund as its eighth-largest shareholder [1] Specific Company Movements - Flagship glass company Qibin Group (601636) saw increased holdings from fund managers Zheng Chengran and Yang Ruiwen, with a notable rise in share price of over 40% since July [2] - Other companies like Jinling Mining (000655) and Daoshi Technology (300409) also experienced significant stock price increases of 44.89% and 56.49%, respectively, attracting public fund investments [2] Technology Sector Adjustments - In the technology sector, companies like Xindian Software and Chip Origin faced reductions in holdings from institutional investors, indicating a cautious approach towards tech growth stocks [3] - Despite reductions, Chip Origin's stock price increased by over 15% since late August, suggesting resilience in the face of institutional selling [3] - The technology sector remains under scrutiny, with some analysts suggesting that the high valuations may lead to profit-taking, yet there is potential for continued investment opportunities in AI applications and advanced semiconductor processes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is pushing for a transformation in the construction industry towards industrialization, digitalization, and greening, aiming for high-quality development and sustainability in "Chinese construction" [1] Industry Policy and Trends - The reform focuses on promoting prefabricated buildings, accelerating the application of construction robots, and widely promoting green building materials and practices [1] - The goal is to enhance the quality, efficiency, and sustainability of the construction industry, creating new growth opportunities in green materials and smart construction sectors [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the consumer building materials sector include: - Sanke Tree (channel penetration, retail expansion) - Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader, optimized operational structure) - Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations, significant retail business) - Jianlang Hardware [1] - Beneficiary companies include: - Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader, diversified expansion in coatings and waterproof sectors) [1] - Cement sector beneficiaries include: - Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement, as the industry aims to control cement clinker capacity and improve energy efficiency [1] Market Performance - The building materials index rose by 2.66% in the week of October 6-10, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points [2] - Over the past year, the building materials index increased by 21.26%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 4.71 percentage points [2] Price Trends - As of October 10, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement was 287.21 RMB/ton, down 0.26% month-on-month [3] - The average price of float glass was 1301.65 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.72% [3] - Prices for various fiberglass products ranged from 3400 to 6500 RMB/ton, depending on the type [4] Raw Material Prices - As of October 10, 2025, crude oil prices were 65.05 USD/barrel, down 3.59% week-on-week [4] - Asphalt prices remained stable at 4570 RMB/ton, while acrylic acid and titanium dioxide prices saw declines [4]

Investment Rating - The report highlights several companies with dividend yields exceeding 5%, including Sichuan Road and Bridge, Rabbit Baby, and others, indicating a positive investment outlook for these firms [2][12] Core Insights - The report recommends focusing on overseas markets, particularly in Africa, for building materials, fiberglass, and electrolytic aluminum sectors, suggesting that companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement are well-positioned for international competition [13] - Continued tracking of AI copper foil and AI electronic cloth is advised, as demand remains strong, benefiting from capital expenditure expansion in semiconductor clean rooms and PCB equipment [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Companies with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio below 15x include Sichuan Road and Bridge (8.8x), China Construction (4.8x), and others, indicating potential undervaluation [2][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of cash dividend ratios for 2024 and 2025, with several companies projected to maintain high dividend yields [2][12] Cycle Linkage - The national average price for cement is reported at 349 RMB/t, down 53 RMB/t year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 44.5% [4][14] - The average price for float glass increased to 1289.81 RMB/t, reflecting a 5.31% rise, while inventory levels decreased [4][14] Market Performance - The building materials index increased by 2.66%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [17] - Cement manufacturing showed a price adjustment of -0.4%, with regional variations in pricing due to demand fluctuations [21][25] Price Changes in Building Materials - The report notes that the price of 2400tex fiberglass remains stable at 3524.75 RMB/t, with no significant changes expected in the short term [56] - The electronic cloth market shows stable pricing, with current rates between 4.3-4.5 RMB/m [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] Core Viewpoints - The glass and soda ash markets are both in a state of cautious waiting and oscillating weakly. The fundamentals of both are under pressure, with supply and demand contradictions remaining prominent. Attention should be paid to policy changes, supply dynamics, and downstream demand [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Glass - Price: The glass main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1,207 yuan/ton on Friday. The weekly average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,263 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 85.17 yuan/ton [1][5] - Supply: Glass capacity utilization and output increased slightly, and the post-holiday supply was relatively stable [1] - Demand: The float glass market is in the traditional peak season, with stable shipments. After the holiday, the market is cautious, and purchases are mainly based on rigid demand [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.82 million heavy boxes, showing a significant increase. Continued attention should be paid to the inventory situation in October [1][33] - Supply and Demand Logic: Glass production is stable, and some production lines have been ignited. It is expected that production will continue to increase. The production and sales data weakened significantly during the holiday, and although there was a certain increase after the holiday, the overall situation remains weak. The glass price is at a relatively low level and is greatly affected by policies, but the weak fundamentals still strongly suppress the price [1] Market Analysis - Soda Ash - Price: The soda ash main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1,240 yuan/ton on Friday. Some spot prices were lowered, and the spot-futures trading was good [1][5] - Supply: This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 88.41%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.76%. The output was 770,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.85%. Some enterprises had short shutdowns during the holiday, resulting in a decrease in supply [2][29] - Demand: Demand is relatively stable. With the decline in spot and futures prices, market transactions have increased, but overall supply-demand contradictions still exist [2][31] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday, indicating inventory accumulation [2][33] - Supply and Demand Logic: The supply-demand contradiction in soda ash remains severe. The second phase of Yuanxing's project was successfully ignited, and the subsequent supply pressure of soda ash will further increase. Demand is still weak due to the decline in photovoltaic glass and float glass. In the short term, soda ash will maintain a weak operation [2] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3]

此前，多位知名主动权益基金经理对华新水泥已有布局。2025年基金半年报显示，截至6月末，基金经 理杨鑫鑫管理的工银创新动力、刘莉莉管理的富国研究精选、范妍管理的富国稳健增长、董辰管理的华 泰柏富利等均有百万股以上的持仓。 另外，玻璃龙头旗滨集团近期也获得了多位知名基金经理的增持。截至9月25日，基金经理郑澄然管理 的广发高端制造新进入旗滨集团的前十大股东序列，持股数量为3182.09万股。2025年基金半年报显 示，该基金6月末尚未有旗滨集团的持仓。 近期顺周期板块表现亮眼，吸引了投资者的广泛关注。值得注意的是，三季度，知名基金经理朱少醒管 理的"独门基"富国天惠LOF增持了水泥龙头华新水泥，玻璃龙头旗滨集团也获得了知名基金经理杨锐 文、郑澄然的增持。 业内机构认为，近期商品市场反弹主要由"反内卷"政策预期升温驱动，尤其在建材行业政策明确产能管 控后，市场信心有所修复。当前商品市场仍处于"强预期、弱现实"的反复博弈阶段，后续"反内卷"政策 仍有期待空间。 朱少醒增持水泥龙头 近期，部分上市公司因回购股份披露了前十大股东持股情况。值得注意的是，多位知名主动权益基金经 理管理的公募产品现身上市公司前十大股东名单， ...

Group 1 - The coal industry is expected to see a year-on-year profit decline in October 2025, maintaining a neutral outlook due to coal prices being lower than the same period last year [4] - In the livestock breeding sector, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.38 million at the end of August 2025, with a slight month-on-month decrease, indicating potential stability in meat prices until Q1 2026 [4] - The general steel industry is projected to experience positive year-on-year profit growth in September 2025, with the PMI rolling average remaining stable [5] Group 2 - The float glass industry is expected to see a positive gross profit year-on-year in September 2025, leading to an upgrade in its economic signal [5] - The cement industry is forecasted to maintain flat profits year-on-year in September 2025, with a continued neutral outlook while waiting for positive signals from new housing starts [5] - The fuel refining industry is anticipated to have positive year-on-year profit growth in September 2025, while the oil service sector maintains a neutral outlook due to the absence of an upward trend in oil prices [5]