Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Viewpoints - The upgrade of AI special glass fiber is accelerating, with a focus on the volume increase of high-end products [6][10] - Cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month [8][9] - Recommended investment in domestic substitution chains and African chains, with existing leading companies as the main line for the year [10] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement Market - In late June, the average shipping rate of national cement enterprises was 43%, down approximately 0.8 percentage points month-on-month and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The national average cement price decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, with most regions experiencing price declines [8][26] - The national cement average price was 357.74 yuan/ton, down 3.71 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 37.90 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market saw a slight improvement in transactions, but prices remained stable [9] - The total inventory of monitored provinces was 59 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.52 million weight boxes, with a decline of 2.51% [38][39] - The national average glass price was 69.17 yuan/weight box, down 0.81 yuan/weight box month-on-month and down 18.17 yuan/weight box year-on-year [39] Special Glass Fiber - China National Materials Technology is a leading domestic supplier of special glass fiber, benefiting from the upgrade trend [7] - The company is expected to achieve a monthly production capacity of 6 million meters by the end of 2026, with a projected performance of approximately 3.8 billion yuan in 2025-2026 [7] - The upgrade from M8 to M9 in copper-clad laminates is expected to drive the scale increase of high-end products [6] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include China National Materials Technology, Meijia Xincai, and Punaite Co., Ltd. for domestic substitution [10] - Keda Manufacturing is recommended for the African chain, benefiting from local market advantages [10] - The report also highlights the potential of Sanhe Tree and Rabbit Baby in the existing stock chain [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's main glass contract has increased by over 6%, currently priced at 1,048 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The main glass contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has seen a significant price increase, indicating strong market demand or potential supply constraints [1]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【2025年上半年玻璃供需恶化价格下行，下半年市场仍难有起色】2025年上半年，玻璃供需情况恶化， 价格下行，当前处于供需双弱状态。若后续利润水平维持，玻璃日熔量预计小幅下行，在15.5至15.9万 吨区间波动。因2023年新开工同比2022年下降20%，2025年竣工会继续下滑，下半年玻璃需求难有太大 起色。假设日熔量维持在15.7万吨左右，6 - 8月需求同比减少6%至8%，整体库存难以有效去化，需关 注后续冷修速度和旺季需求成色。 上半年玻璃价格较大幅度下行，行情分四个阶段。1月，春节前宏观 氛围好，黑色系商品价格反弹，玻璃日熔量低，下游冬储量不高，市场预期年后补库，玻璃价格上涨， 但现货和近月价格上行幅度小，基差和月差走弱。2 - 3月中旬，宏观降温，春节库存累积，节后需求恢 复慢，下游订单差，补库意愿弱，玻璃价格下行，基差未走强。3月下旬，需求环比恢复，中游贸易商 补库，市场预期节前下游补库，玻璃价格反弹，基差未明显走强，但5 - 9月差上涨多。4月至今，需求 低迷，旺季不旺，工厂库存累积至高位，国内宏观氛围差，黑色系商品价格下行，玻璃价 ...

Group 1: Overview of Private Enterprises in China - The number of private enterprises in China is substantial, with 1.85 million organizations accounting for 96.76% of total operating entities as of the end of May [1] - The 20th China International Small and Medium Enterprises Expo showcased new technologies and products from domestic SMEs, highlighting their commitment to technological empowerment and new productivity cultivation [1] Group 2: Support for SMEs - Various government departments are actively implementing measures to support SMEs in areas such as market expansion, financing, and digital transformation [1] - The Shandong-based Yuhong Minxin (Shandong) Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. has developed a high-precision nano-membrane core for pressure sensors, addressing domestic gaps in high-end sensor technology [1] Group 3: Nuclear Power Equipment Manufacturing - Hebei Zhongyi Nuclear Power Equipment Co., Ltd. has successfully won contracts for several national nuclear power projects, breaking the foreign product monopoly [2] Group 4: Innovation and Technology Support - Cangzhou is focusing on supporting the transformation and upgrading of SMEs and the digital economy, with plans to implement an "Innovation Platform Attack Plan" to assist in high-value patent layout and technology localization [3] - Over 600,000 technology and innovation-oriented SMEs have been cultivated in China, with more than 140,000 specialized and innovative SMEs [3] Group 5: International Market Expansion - The Guangdong-based Indel Industrial Co., Ltd. specializes in manufacturing vehicle refrigerators and is expanding its international market presence, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is committed to supporting SMEs in expanding international cooperation and enhancing their role in global supply chains [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a significant divergence in style, with strong performance in the banking sector supporting the index, while sectors like solid-state batteries and military industries faced adjustments [3] - Long-term capital inflow is accelerating, with steady growth in ETF size and continued inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support to the market [1][3] - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with close attention needed on policy, capital flow, and external market changes [1] Group 2 - The overall market remains active, driven by a rebound in risk appetite, although caution is advised against chasing high-performing sectors and stocks [3] - The mid-term market trend appears positive, with expectations for the A-share market to continue its upward trajectory, supported by financial policies aimed at high-quality development and anticipated monetary easing [3] - The liquidity in the equity market is expected to improve significantly due to policies that relax insurance capital entry and attract long-term funds [3]

Group 1 - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 350 billion yuan, indicating the arrival of an index-based investment era in the bond market [1] - Public funds in the first half of the year distributed a total of 127.5 billion yuan, with bond funds accounting for over 85% of the total distribution [1] - International gold prices increased by over 25% in the first half of 2025, driven by safe-haven demand, and are expected to continue rising [1] Group 2 - Several bank convertible bonds are facing mandatory redemption due to strong stock performance, leading to a contraction in the convertible bond market [2] - Chinese banks are increasingly investing in bonds, with small and medium-sized banks' bond investment balances rising to 46.41 trillion yuan, and large banks reaching 49.54 trillion yuan [2] Group 3 - The production of forest food in China has exceeded 200 million tons annually, with significant contributions from various regions [3] - The "thermal quenching" technology developed by researchers allows for precise switching of quantum materials between conductive and insulating states, potentially increasing electronic product speeds significantly [3] Group 4 - Leading photovoltaic glass companies are planning to reduce production by up to 30% due to a significant drop in prices [4] - *ST Yuancheng is under investigation for suspected financial data misrepresentation, which could lead to forced delisting [4] Group 5 - Lenovo Holdings plans to reduce its stake in Lakala by up to 3%, equating to approximately 23.64 million shares, due to business arrangements [5] - The actual controller of Baichuan Co., Ltd. is under investigation, but the company's operations remain normal [6] Group 6 - *ST Aowei reported an asset loss of approximately 25.04 million yuan due to poor storage management by a processing partner [6] - Shida Shenghua expects a net loss of 52 to 60 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to production issues and declining product prices [7] Group 7 - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq down 0.82% and the Dow Jones up 0.89%, influenced by a strong labor market and reduced interest rate expectations [8] - Tesla's stock fell over 7% amid legislative changes, while solar and wind energy stocks rose [9]

期货热点追踪 行业亏损倒逼减产，玻璃企业自救，期货价格大幅拉升！本轮反弹还能持续多久？ 相关链接 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62%, gaining 148 points to close at 24,220 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.27%. The early trading volume in Hong Kong was HKD 135.2 billion [1]. Copper Industry - Recent strong performance in copper prices has led institutions to believe that prices are likely to rise further. Copper mining stocks generally increased, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up by 2%, Zijin Mining (601899) (02899) up by 2.99%, and Jiangxi Copper (600362) (00358) up by 2.36% [1]. Cobalt Market - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) (03993) saw a 4.14% increase, reaching a new high, as Bank of America noted that soaring cobalt prices offset the impact of extended cobalt export bans [2]. Gold Sector - Most gold stocks rose, with Shandong Gold (600547) (01787) increasing by 6.24% to reach a new peak, and Zijin Mining (02899) rising over 2.99% [3]. Banking Sector - Chinese banks' stocks experienced broad gains in early trading, with institutions indicating that H-shares are more attractive compared to A-shares. Notable increases included Minsheng Bank (600016) (01988) up by 4.72%, CITIC Bank (601998) (00998) up by 2.54%, and China Construction Bank (601939) (00939) up by 3.16% [3]. Photovoltaic Industry - The news of production cuts in photovoltaic glass has been confirmed, leading to expectations of accelerated elimination of outdated capacity in the industry. Stocks in this sector rose significantly, with Fuyao Glass (601865) (06865) up by 8.4% and Xinyi Solar (00968) up by 7.63% [3]. Beverage Sector - Nayuki's Tea (02150) surged over 35%, with a continuous two-month double-digit growth in order volume, indicating significant growth potential [4]. Food Industry - Guoquan (02517) rose over 18% after announcing plans to invest HKD 490 million in a food production base in Hainan, with institutions noting a recovery in same-store sales [5]. Jewelry Sector - Luk Fook Holdings (00590) increased by 3.99%, with institutions stating that the operational performance for the second half of the fiscal year 2025 exceeded expectations, and the company plans to resume store expansion [6]. Biotechnology Sector - JACOB-23E73 completed its first patient dosing in the U.S. for Phase I/IIa clinical trials, leading to a rise of over 7% in shares of JACOB (01167) [7]. Automotive Sector - Li Auto-W (02015) fell by 2.4%, with June delivery volumes down 24% year-on-year, following a previous downward revision of second-quarter guidance [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-02 唐⼭减排要求趋严，受此影响炉料⾛弱，钢材⾛强。对铁⽔影响还需 要持续观察，盘⾯整体表现较为谨慎，尤其钢材处于淡季，需求有转 弱迹象，因此单边涨幅不⼤。双焦受煤矿复产和减排双重利空影响， 跌幅⼤于铁矿。由于此次限产集中在唐⼭地区且有时间期限，预计整 体影响有限，不过后续也要关注重⼤活动前限产是否会延续。 限产消息扰动，钢材价格⾛强 ⿊⾊：限产消息扰动，钢材价格⾛强 唐山减排要求趋严，受此影响炉料走弱，钢材走强。对铁水影响还需 要持续观察，盘面整体表现较为谨慎，尤其钢材处于淡季，需求有转 弱迹象，因此单边涨幅不大。双焦受煤矿复产和减排双重利空影响， 跌幅大于铁矿。由于此次限产集中在唐山地区且有时间期限，预计整 体影响有限，不过后续也要关注重大活动前限产是否会延续。 1、铁元素方面，本周海外矿山发运和45港口到港量环比下降，供应 端压力较小；需求端钢企盈利率保持高位，铁水缺乏因利润减产的驱 动。到港环比下降叠加需求高位，港口小幅去库。虽然前期海外矿山 冲发运将在几周内到港，矿石有阶段性小幅累库预期，但幅度有限， 整 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周二两市主要指数强势整理，收盘小涨，创新药板块涨幅居前。两市成交额 1.46 | | | | | 万亿元，变化不大。中证 1000 指数收 6373 点，涨 17 点，涨幅 0.28%；中证 500 | | | | | 指数收 5934 点，涨 19 点，涨幅 0.33%；沪深 300 指数收 3942 点，涨 6 点，涨幅 | | | | | 0.17%；上证 50 指数收 2717 点，涨 5 点，涨幅 0.21%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前 | | | | | 的是科创医药 ETF、创新药 ETF、生物疫苗 ETF、黄金股票 ETF、银行 ETF，跌幅居 | | | | | 前的是金融科技 ETF、软件龙头 ETF、信创 50ETF。两市板块指数中涨幅居前的是玻 | ...