Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is experiencing a slight decline in revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, but profitability is improving, particularly in the cement and fiberglass sectors [1] Cement Industry - The 12 listed cement companies achieved revenue of 261.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.98%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 7.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 134.64% [2] - Despite entering the peak demand season in Q4, cement demand is expected to see only a slight increase due to market funding shortages [2] - The industry is anticipated to enhance self-discipline and staggered production efforts to raise prices and improve profitability [2] - Long-term supply-side reforms are expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the cement industry [2] - Key stocks to watch include Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement [2] Glass Industry - The glass industry saw a revenue decline in the first three quarters of 2025, with 12 listed companies reporting revenue of 88.52 billion yuan, down 2.92%, and net profit of 7.69 billion yuan, down 9.65% [3] - In Q3 2025, the glass industry showed signs of improvement, with revenue of 31.69 billion yuan, up 10.31%, and net profit of 2.27 billion yuan, up 50.06% [3] - Float glass demand remained weak, with prices declining; however, Q4 is expected to be a traditional peak season [3] - The photovoltaic glass market experienced stable fluctuations, with supply-demand factors influencing prices; the industry is expected to maintain price stability in Q4 [3] - Key stocks to monitor include Qibin Group for float glass and Fuyao Glass for photovoltaic glass [3] Fiberglass Industry - The five listed fiberglass companies reported revenue of 40.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.22%, and net profit of 4.46 billion yuan, up 81.25% [4] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to rising fiberglass prices, with an average gross margin of 25.09%, up 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Continued demand for high-end fiberglass is expected to further enhance industry profitability [4] - Key stocks to focus on include China Jushi, Zhongcai Technology, and Honghe Technology [4] Consumer Building Materials Industry - The four tracked waterproofing companies reported revenue of 47.03 billion yuan, down 4.05%, and net profit of 3.44 billion yuan, down 23.78% [5] - The six tracked pipe industry companies achieved revenue of 12.75 billion yuan, down 6.16%, and net profit of 0.45 billion yuan, down 50.63% [5] - The seven tracked other major consumer building materials companies reported revenue of 29.64 billion yuan, down 8.93%, but net profit increased by 12.40% to 1.37 billion yuan [5] - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and easing restrictions are expected to gradually alleviate inventory pressure and improve industry fundamentals [5] - Key stocks to watch include Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report The global risk appetite has cooled due to hawkish signals from Fed officials and a slowdown in China's economic growth. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and various asset classes are expected to show short - term oscillations. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and changes in Fed monetary policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Fed officials oppose a December rate cut, reducing the market's December rate - cut expectation probability to 40%, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in October was weaker than in September, and the central bank's liquidity - releasing measures were countered by the Fed's hawkish signals. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, with stock indices and government bonds expected to oscillate in the short term, and a cautious approach is recommended for both [2]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, consumer electronics, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market fell. With weaker economic data and Fed hawkish signals, the short - term upward macro - drive has weakened. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term cautious long - positions are advised [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Friday night. Affected by Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the short - term trend is oscillatory, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term cautious observation is recommended, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is advisable [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, with the futures price oscillating at the bottom. Weak economic data and reduced demand have led to a short - term oscillation in the steel market, but the downside below 3000 points for rebar is limited [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price was flat on Friday, with the futures price oscillating. Although iron - water production has slightly increased, the profitability of steel mills is decreasing, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, with the silicon - iron futures price rebounding slightly and the silicon - manganese futures price weakening. With a slight decline in steel production, the demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The futures prices of both are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash futures contract oscillated last week. Supply decreased marginally due to plant maintenance but remained ample, while demand improved slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [8]. - **Glass**: The glass futures contract oscillated weakly last week. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US government's potential end of the shutdown, Fed officials' caution on rate cuts, and poor economic data have created a complex macro - environment. High copper inventories in the US and China are constraining prices, while a mine shutdown in Indonesia supports prices. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations and poor domestic economic data, the price of Shanghai aluminum fell on Friday. There may be further downside in the short term, and if expectations are not met later, the price may experience a significant correction [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short to medium term [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, and the price of lithium concentrate has risen. The supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure should be watched [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention on cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, but there is policy support. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but Fed hawkishness has led to a decline. The short - term spot market is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt remains low, with inventory gradually decreasing. The supply is still excessive, and attention should be paid to oil - price fluctuations [15]. - **PX**: The PX market is tight, with the PXN spread rising slightly. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: The upward momentum of PTA has faded, and the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The supply is high, and the medium - to - long - term pressure is bearish [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream demand is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling and oscillate [16][17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined slightly, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable [17]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, waiting for positive factors [17]. - **PP**: The demand for polypropylene has improved slightly, but the supply growth is too fast, and the price is expected to continue to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain under pressure [18]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is divided. The price is under downward pressure in the short term and may stabilize in the medium to long term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November USDA report was slightly bullish, but there is a risk of the bullish factors being exhausted. The price center may be higher than before [19]. - **Domestic Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of domestic bean meal is loose, and it may weaken in the short term following the potential decline of US soybeans. Rapeseed meal may also enter a weak - oscillation phase [20][21]. - **Edible Oils**: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is weak, but the price is stable. Rapeseed oil is expected to be strong due to inventory reduction and policy support. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Corn**: The inventory of corn is low, and the market has a bullish sentiment. The futures price may repair the basis and rise steadily [22]. - **Hogs**: The current pig price is weak, and the supply is still excessive. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [22].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese market, focusing on various sectors including technology, manufacturing, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods [1][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The index is expected to rise to 4,200-4,300 points from December to February, driven by product structure adjustments and increased capital inflow, alongside supportive policies from the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][3]. 2. **Valuation Expansion**: The Chinese market is currently in a valuation expansion phase, with reduced fears of sanctions due to changing perceptions of US-China relations and rationalized economic policies [4][6]. 3. **Sector Recommendations**: - **Technology Sector**: Focus on AI, internet, new energy vehicles, electronic semiconductors, and media communications [5]. - **Manufacturing**: Global expansion in power equipment, machinery, and auto parts [5]. - **Aviation**: Strong fundamentals with record high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, indicating a potential super cycle [10]. - **Oil Shipping**: Record high freight rates expected to lead to the highest profits in a decade due to OPEC production increases and geopolitical factors [11]. - **Chemicals**: Optimism for leading companies benefiting from supply-side optimization and cost advantages [3][16]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in food, beverages, and retail sectors, particularly for companies with low stock and strong fundamentals [7][30]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Recovery**: The upcoming year is expected to show a high probability of economic recovery, particularly in traditional sectors like cyclical and consumer goods [6]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with low stock prices and strong fundamentals, especially in the consumer goods sector [7][9]. 3. **Brokerage Role**: Brokerages are anticipated to play a crucial role in market advancement, especially as capital market reforms progress [8]. 4. **Metal Industry Outlook**: Positive expectations for the metal sector, with industrial metals likely to benefit from global liquidity and emerging demands from AI infrastructure and new energy vehicles [18][19]. 5. **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector has seen significant supply-side optimization, with leading companies expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and pricing [13][14][16]. 6. **Oil Market Dynamics**: Current oil market conditions show a supply surplus, but OPEC's cautious production increases are expected to support prices in the medium term [24]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a generally optimistic outlook for the Chinese market across various sectors, with specific recommendations for investment opportunities in technology, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods. The anticipated economic recovery and supportive policies are expected to drive market performance in the coming months.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, with Chongqing as a key node, facilitating global access through various transportation methods. The cargo volume and value from January to October reached 272,300 TEUs and 48.962 billion yuan, respectively, marking increases of 33% and 27% year-on-year. The network has expanded to 581 ports across 127 countries and regions, covering over 1,300 product types [1][11] - In the construction materials sector, four key points are identified for addressing the downturn: low market share and high growth potential, discovering new demands for existing products, developing second business lines, and fostering innovation to create high-barrier business models. The report highlights that the difficulty of these points increases, particularly in innovation [2][12] - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including Keda Manufacturing, Huaxin Cement, and China National Building Material, among others, focusing on both domestic and overseas markets [13] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report discusses the Western Land-Sea New Corridor and its significance in enhancing trade and logistics, with a focus on the expected completion by 2025 and the ongoing construction of the Pinglu Canal [1][11] Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 352 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/year-on-year, with a national average shipment rate of 46.2%. Glass prices were reported at 1,195.35 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease. The report also covers trends in concrete, fiberglass, aluminum, and steel, indicating a mixed outlook for these materials [3][14] Market Performance - The construction materials index showed a performance of -0.97%, with specific segments like glass manufacturing and fiberglass experiencing declines, while consumer building materials and pipe materials saw positive growth [17][18] Price Changes in Construction Materials - Cement prices showed a slight increase of 0.3% week-on-week, with regional variations. The report notes a general upward trend in prices due to seasonal demand and efforts to enhance profitability [20][23] - The floating glass market is described as stable but weak, with prices slightly declining. The report indicates that inventory levels are increasing, and market sentiment is cautious [32][47]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：短期震荡偏弱 中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内浮法玻璃产线稳定运行，无放水、点火产线，周产量环比持平。截至20251113， 国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296条(20万吨/ | | --- | --- | | | 日），其中在产222条，冷修停产74条，截至2025年11月13日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.91万吨，与6日持平。 | | 需求 | 截至20251031，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值10.8天，环比+4.0%，同比-16.1%。本期深加工订单有所分化，其中北部持有订单均值环比 | | | 略有提升，部分持有工程订单比例有所增加；而南部订单多数持平甚至部分环比下滑，整体竞价依旧激烈。 | | 库存 | 截止到20251113，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6324.7万重箱，环比+11.1万重箱，环比+0.18%，同比+33.61%。折库存天数27.5天，较上期 | | | +0.4天。本周华北地区出货较前期减缓 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - October domestic fixed asset investment data is under pressure, with a focus on companies benefiting from overseas business growth, such as Huaxin Cement, which saw a 76.01% year-on-year increase in net profit [6] - The cement price is marginally rising, while the decline in float glass prices is narrowing [2] - The real estate market remains under pressure, with significant year-on-year declines in new and second-hand housing transactions [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others benefiting from domestic demand recovery and tariff disruptions [6] - Companies in the waterproofing sector like Oriental Yuhong and Keshun Co. are recommended due to frequent price increases [6] - The solar glass sector is also highlighted, with companies like Qibin Group and Xinyi Solar expected to benefit from price adjustments [6] Cement Market Analysis - National cement prices increased by 0.3% week-on-week, with price rises mainly in Hebei, Fujian, Henan, Hunan, and Guangxi [2] - The average price of float glass decreased slightly, with a 0.16% decline [2] - The market for photovoltaic glass remains stable, with no significant changes in prices [2] Real Estate Market Insights - In the 46th week, new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.6452 million square meters, down 26% year-on-year [3] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 monitored cities showed a year-on-year decline of 8% [3] Company Performance Highlights - Huaxin Cement's net profit for the first three quarters reached 2.004 billion yuan, up 76.01% year-on-year, driven by overseas business growth [6] - Keda Manufacturing reported a 47.19% increase in revenue, with net profit rising by 63.49% [6] - The company Three Trees achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 81.2% year-on-year [6]

Group 1 - In October 2025, consumer spending continued to decline, with a notable increase in restaurant consumption growth, potentially driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, but sustainability remains uncertain and requires ongoing policy support [1][4][19] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in October 2025 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.1%, primarily due to the continued drag from real estate-related industries and a post-holiday production decline [1][2][5] - October saw a slight increase in inflation, supported by rising service, food, and gold prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 0.2% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a reduced year-on-year decline of 2.1% [1][4][11] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment in October 2025 showed an expanded year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all weakening, indicating that stabilization in the real estate sector requires additional policy measures [1][5][16] - Economic data for October indicates a continued weakening of the fundamentals, with consumer spending and inflation as bright spots, but their sustainability is still in question, while investment growth and real estate prices are declining rapidly [1][19][25] - The bond market is currently in a sideways trend, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8%, as the market has priced in the central bank's resumption of government bond trading and the weakening fundamentals [1][19][25]

Core Insights - The report by the Beijing Green Finance and Sustainable Development Research Institute presents the first phase of research on carbon reduction benchmarks for high-carbon industries in China, suggesting that the transformation pathways under a 2-degree scenario should serve as a benchmark for financial institutions and third-party organizations to evaluate corporate transformation plans [1] Group 1: Research Findings - The report systematically displays the benchmark carbon reduction pathways for six high-carbon industries in China, including electricity, steel, cement, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and glass, from 2020 to 2060 under the "dual carbon" context [1] - It assesses the long-term dynamic impacts of transformation risks and climate physical risks on China's macroeconomy, industrial structure, and carbon emissions [1] - The report simulates the transformation pathways of typical high-carbon industries from 2020 to 2060, covering changes in industry output, carbon emissions, and carbon intensity based on different climate warming scenarios (1.5 degrees, 2 degrees, and 3 degrees) [1] Group 2: Future Research Directions - The director of the Beijing Green Finance Institute, Ma Jun, emphasized that transformation finance is a crucial breakthrough and growth point for the future development of green and sustainable finance [1] - The next phase of research will optimize relevant models and data, focusing on carbon reduction target benchmarks for sub-sectors such as construction, real estate, water transport, air transport, ceramics, and paper [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, with prices continuing the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to reach an inflection point [2]. - For iron ore, high inventory still suppresses the price. In the short term, the rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin. In the macro vacuum period, the futures price is likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore fundamentals are weak. The short - term ore price will operate within the shock range, with the lower limit between 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is considered that looking for a callback position to do a rebound may have a higher cost - performance ratio than continuing to short. The subsequent overseas situation will be a definite situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and domestic demand - stimulating policies are still expected. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For polysilicon, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Be cautious about the authenticity of long and short news [16]. - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, and the downstream demand is average. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5166 tons to 90327 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 10693 lots to 1.857343 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12063 tons to 107606 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8957 lots to 1.302507 million lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coils had weak demand, could not absorb the production, and the inventory showed a counter - seasonal accumulation. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (- 1.50), and the positions decreased by 7106 lots to 494,100 lots. The weighted positions were 910,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.07% [4]. - The Simandou iron ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to reach full production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrivals decreased. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with an increase in the utilization rate of some blast furnace capacities. The steel mill profitability continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the short - term rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 13, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium to the futures price of 134 yuan/ton [7]. - The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.29% at 5506 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount to the futures price of 6 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the macro environment entered a relative vacuum period, and the pricing of the black sector returned to the fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trading in the black sector, but it was considered a temporary shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for a callback position to do a rebound. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.54% (- 50). The weighted positions increased by 6269 lots to 418,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 195 yuan/ton [12]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 54195 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.37% (+ 735). The weighted positions increased by 2397 lots to 237,112 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 2045 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, in October, the production continued to increase. In November, the production in the southwest is expected to decline. The demand for polysilicon decreased, and the organic silicon production is expected to be stable. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [13]. - For polysilicon, in November, some production capacities started maintenance, and the production is expected to decline in the last two months. The downstream silicon wafer production is also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton, up 0 + 0.67% (+ 7). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 57,921 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 52,810 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 2.06% (+ 25). The Shahe heavy - alkali price was 1194 yuan, up 30. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), including 907,100 tons of heavy - alkali inventory, up 75,000 tons, and 800,200 tons of light - alkali inventory, down 144,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 21,477 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 16,961 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, the downstream support is insufficient, the production enterprise shipment pressure increases, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, the downstream demand is average, especially the consumption of heavy - alkali is weak. Due to the industry - wide losses, some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-14 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力，供给同期历史低位；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期， 地产终端需求疲弱，库存高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1032元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1056元/吨，基差为-24元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6324.70万重量箱，较前一周增加0.18%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策、环保政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业产能出清，沙河地区"煤改气" ...