Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Fed's easing expectations support the rebound of aluminum prices. On the 6th, SHFE aluminum closed higher, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. Due to uneven arrivals, the daily inventory decreased slightly, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - SHFE aluminum closed higher on the 6th, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. [8] - The daily inventory decreased slightly due to uneven arrivals, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. [8] - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. [8] - The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. [8] - Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] 2. Industry News - **Overseas Bauxite Mining Right Changes**: On August 4, the Guinean government announced the establishment of Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA-GAC. The company is a public limited company wholly owned by the Guinean government, with a board of directors, legal personality, and financial and management autonomy. The 690.20-square-kilometer mining area previously occupied by GAC has been awarded to NMC for 25 years. Previously, EGA's annual production capacity in Guinea was 14 million tons, and the mine stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year. [9][10] - **New Aluminum Recycling Plant in the US**: Spectro Alloys' aluminum recycling plant in Rosemount, Minnesota, has been officially put into operation. The newly expanded plant covers an area of 90,000 square feet and will produce up to 120 million pounds of recycled aluminum ingots from scrap aluminum annually. These recycled aluminum ingots will be used for extrusion processing to make railings, window and door frames, and structural components for automobiles, ships, airplanes, trailers, etc. The plant is expected to reach full production in the first quarter of 2026. As part of its entry into the North American market, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) acquired 80% of Spectro Alloys in 2024. In addition, EGA recently announced plans to invest $4 billion in building a smelting plant in Oklahoma, which will nearly double the primary aluminum production in the US. [10] - **Change of Bauxite Mining Right in China**: The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shanzhou District Dataoyuan Bauxite Mine was changed. The mining right holder is Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd., with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The mine's mining species is bauxite, the mining method is open-pit/underground mining, the mining area is 7.7548 square kilometers, and the designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year. [10] - **Vedanta's Q1 FY2026 Results**: Vedanta's net profit in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (April - June 2025) declined. Despite strong local demand, it was difficult to offset the impact of falling aluminum and copper prices and rising tax expenditures. The company's quarterly profit did not meet expectations. Affected by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US trade policies, the benchmark three-month aluminum and copper prices fell by 4% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively in the reporting quarter. Falling commodity prices often affect the sales prices and profits of mining companies. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's total revenue increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 374.34 billion rupees ($4.3 billion), mainly due to the increase in aluminum and copper revenues, which increased by 7.7% and 34.6% respectively. The company's consolidated net profit decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 31.85 billion rupees, compared with 36.06 billion rupees in the same period of the previous fiscal year. According to data compiled by the London Stock Exchange (LSEG), analysts' average expectation for Vedanta's profit was 34.83 billion rupees. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's EBITDA increased by about 2% to 60.53 billion rupees, while tax expenditures jumped from 8.31 billion rupees a year ago to 15.96 billion rupees. Vedanta's operating profit margin remained unchanged at 21% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: According to customs data, in June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. (The above import and export data are based on customs codes 76011090 and 76011010) [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market was weak due to China's July economic data falling short of expectations, the US announcing full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data being disappointing. However, the market sentiment improved with optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries. Currently, the spot demand for aluminum is insufficient, and the subsequent trend of Shanghai aluminum may be volatile and weak. The speculation in the aluminum market has subsided, and this round of speculation may end [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Background and Sentiment - China's July economic data was below expectations, the US announced full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data was poor with previous two - month data significantly revised down. This led to an increased risk of US economic recession and rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The dollar tumbled and the RMB soared at night, causing the market to weaken. Optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries improved market sentiment during the day [1]. Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,525, and the spot price was 20,480, with a spot discount of - 45 points. The spot turned to a discount of - 40 yuan this week, and spot trading was poor. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased this week, while the social inventory of alumina decreased. The inventory of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and spot consumption was weak. The LME spot inventory increased this week, and the LME spot turned to a discount of - 3 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices rose significantly to 8.06, indicating that the external market performed weaker than the domestic market [1]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil and LME aluminum rose slightly. Shanghai aluminum opened lower and closed higher, rising slightly and closing at 20,525. The technical form improved slightly. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum both decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2]. Data Monitoring - From July 29 to August 4, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated, the spot premium/discount changed from 0 to - 40, the LME situation also changed, and the Shanghai - London ratio of the main contract increased from 7.83 to 8.06 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged at its late - July meeting, but the probability of a September rate cut increased, with greater internal divergence. The non - farm payrolls data on Friday night was significantly below expectations, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a rise in precious metal prices. In China, relevant meetings have concluded, and subsequent policies are awaited [6]. - As macro events gradually land, there is likely to be a macro - policy window period, and the market is more likely to return to fundamental logic. Attention should be paid to hedging opportunities during the off - season [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina - Industry Fundamentals 3.1.1 Supply - In June 2025, China's alumina total capacity was 11,292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.56% and a month - on - month increase of 50 million tons. The in - production capacity was 9,315 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.14% and a month - on - month increase of 365 million tons [11]. - In June 2025, China's alumina production was 774.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The cumulative production this year was 4,515.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - In June 2025, China's alumina operating rate was 82.49, at a relatively high - middle position in history, returning to the same level as last year and a month - on - month increase of 2.88%. There is still significant upward space, indicating high supply elasticity [17]. - In June 2025, China's alumina net exports were 6.87 million tons, with a continuous net - export pattern for 15 months and a significant month - on - month decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative net exports were 107.18 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [21]. 3.1.2 Demand - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 380.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The cumulative production this year was 2,237.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [24]. 3.1.3 Cost - The Guinea bauxite price increased slightly week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $73.5 per ton, a $0.5 increase from last week. The CIF average price of Australian bauxite was $69 per ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - The caustic soda price was 3,650 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [30]. 3.1.4 Profit - The full production cost of alumina was 2,834.3 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.1 yuan per ton. The smelting profit was 426.5 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.1 yuan per ton [33]. - The alumina export profit was 99 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 24 yuan per ton [36]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of July 31, the port inventory of alumina was 2.5 million tons, a 1.2 - million - ton decrease from July 24 [39]. 3.1.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply pattern. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In June, it returned to an oversupply pattern [42]. 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum total capacity was 4,520.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58% and a month - on - month increase of 0.5 million tons. The in - production capacity was 4,415.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% and a month - on - month increase of 2 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.38, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 380.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The cumulative production this year was 2,237.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [48]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.68, a year - on - year increase of 1.16% and a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. It is at a relatively high position in history, with limited upward space and low supply elasticity [51]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports were 17.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.86 million tons and a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 million tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative net imports were 116.35 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77 million tons [56]. - On August 1, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 19,955 yuan per ton, a 245 - yuan decrease compared to July 24. The refined - scrap spread was 1,635 yuan per ton, a 75 - yuan increase compared to July 24 [58]. - In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 15.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative scrap aluminum imports were 101.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.88% [61]. 3.2.2 Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product production was 587.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% and a month - on - month increase of 11.17 million tons. The cumulative production this year was 3,276.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [64]. - In June 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 166.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% and a month - on - month increase of 2.4 million tons. The cumulative production this year was 909.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [67]. 3.2.3 Cost - The domestic alumina spot price stabilized with a slight rebound, and the overseas spot price increased slightly in the short term [70]. - The pre - baked anode price was 5,482.5 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [73]. - The latest price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,670 yuan per ton, and the latest price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan per ton, both unchanged week - on - week [76]. 3.2.4 Profit - The recent electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was 16,882 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan per ton. The overall profit was 3,728 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 318 yuan per ton [79]. - Currently, the electrolytic aluminum import loss was 1,377 yuan per ton, a significant week - on - week narrowing of 228 yuan per ton [82]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of July 31, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major consumption areas was 54.5 million tons, a 3.3 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 1 - million - ton increase during the week [85]. - In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum spot inventory was 54.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.8 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 7.5 million tons. The absolute value is at a relatively low position in history, returning to the same level as in 2023 [88]. - As of July 31, the domestic aluminum rod inventory was 13.99 million tons, a 0.21 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 0.14 - million - ton decrease during the week. The inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, with little weekly change [91]. 3.2.6 Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China was between 20,490 - 20,690 yuan per ton, a 310 - yuan week - on - week decrease. The spot price against the 08 contract showed a high - level decline in both the spot and futures markets, with the spot turning to a discount and the discount widening. Due to the deepening off - season, the downstream's acceptance of high prices continued to decline, and overall trading was average [94].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 2024年1至12月份，天山铝业的营业收入构成为：铝行业占比100.0%。 天山铝业（SZ 002532，收盘价：9.17元）8月5日晚间发布公告称，截至本公告日，石河子市锦隆能源 产业链有限公司累计质押股数为3.7亿股，占其所持股份比例为40.52%。石河子市锦汇能源投资有限公 司累计质押股数约为1.73亿股，占其所持股份比例为50%。曾超懿累计质押股数约为2.43亿股，占其所 持股份比例为61.79%。曾超林累计质押股数约为2.22亿股，占其所持股份比例为73.36%。 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys) - Report Date: August 4, 2025 - Research Team: Hongyuan Futures Metal Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The US tariff hikes increase global economic uncertainty, and the traditional consumption off - season leads to inventory accumulation expectations, putting pressure on aluminum prices [1] - For alumina, although the cost is pushed up by the rising price of imported bauxite from Guinea, the supply - demand is expected to be loose, so the price may be cautiously weak - For electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys, the weak US job market raises the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but the traditional consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and prices may still have room to fall 3. Summary by Category Alumina - **Supply - demand situation**: Domestic bauxite supply is expected to be loose in August, with production and imports likely to increase. China's alumina production in August may increase month - on - month, and the surplus of alumina compared to electrolytic aluminum's operating capacity in July has expanded. Imports may decrease and exports may increase in August, and port inventories have decreased [3][18][27] - **Price and cost**: The price of imported bauxite from Guinea has risen, pushing up production costs. The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,880 yuan/ton. The price of alumina may be cautiously weak. It is recommended that investors hold previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,100 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,800 [3][24] - **Investment strategy**: Hold previous short positions cautiously, pay attention to support and resistance levels [3] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - demand situation**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in August may increase month - on - month due to the resumption and new production of some projects. Imports in August may also increase. The operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises has declined, and the demand is weak [4][60] - **Price and cost**: The weak US job market raises the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but the traditional consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand. The price of Shanghai aluminum may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the resistance level around 21,000 - 21,500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the resistance level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [4] - **Investment strategy**: Hold previous short positions cautiously, pay attention to support and resistance levels [4] Aluminum Alloys - **Supply - demand situation**: The production of domestic scrap aluminum in August may decrease, and imports may increase. The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys in August may increase, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished product inventory may decrease. The import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloys in August may decrease [6][71][84] - **Price and cost**: The weak US job market raises the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but domestic recycled aluminum alloy production is still in the red, and the traditional consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand. The price of aluminum alloys may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 19,500 - 19,700 and the resistance level around 20,000 - 20,300 [6] - **Investment strategy**: Hold previous short positions cautiously, pay attention to support and resistance levels [6] Basis and Spread - **Alumina**: The basis and monthly spread are positive and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors hold previous long positions on the alumina basis cautiously [11] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The basis of Shanghai aluminum is positive and basically within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is also positive and reasonable. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum [39] - **Aluminum Alloys**: The basis and monthly spread of cast aluminum alloys are positive and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spread of cast aluminum alloys [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the Shanghai Aluminum futures have fluctuated, rising first and then falling, driven by sector resonance and cost - side logic. Alumina has experienced significant fluctuations under the so - called "anti - involution" drive, but the impact on the alumina industry is limited. Cast aluminum alloy's trend is similar to that of Shanghai Aluminum, slightly stronger, with a slightly upward - shifted center of gravity after July's fluctuations. Overall, except for alumina, the aluminum industry chain has been relatively calm and deviated from the fundamentals [94]. - Fundamentally, the upstream of the industry chain remains relatively loose. Ore imports have increased, and domestic mine activities are relatively few. Alumina production capacity utilization is high, and new capacity is gradually being put into operation. Electrolytic aluminum plants have high operating capacity due to cost reduction and profit increase. The downstream processing industry shows a slack - season performance, but profiles, primary alloys, and cable sectors are relatively strong. In the terminal market, State Grid orders in the first half of the year boosted the demand for aluminum cables, but now it's the seasonal slack season with reduced demand. In the third quarter, new centralized tenders are expected to stabilize and improve the situation. The end of the photovoltaic rush - installation in the first half and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field have cooled the related industries, and it's hard to see improvement in the next 1 - 2 months. Other traditional demand terminals are relatively stable, with the growth of the automotive industry, especially new - energy vehicles, expected to slow down. The real - estate sector is still at the bottom, and the home - appliance industry shows resilience due to policy support. In August, the downstream aluminum processing industry is still in the slack season, and it's difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the short term. Low ingot volume in the industry leads to a continuous decline in inventory, and low inventory levels make price fluctuations more likely [94]. - In August, after the "anti - involution" cools down, the commodity market will adjust, and the non - ferrous sector, which has limited previous gains, will also be affected. Alumina will be most affected, and aluminum and aluminum alloy prices are also difficult to maintain at high levels. Attention should be paid to the warehouse - receipt level near the delivery date to prevent short - term price fluctuations. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 20,000 - 20,800; Alumina may return to around 3000, with a main operating range of 2900 - 3500; Cast aluminum alloy will also run weakly in the range of 19,500 - 20,200 [94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Alumina**: The MA5 of the Alumina main - contract (SHFE 6273) is 3357.60, MA10 is 3326.40, MA20 is 3217.10, MA40 is 3067.30, and MA60 is 3041.18 [6]. - **Aluminum**: The MA5 of the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract (SHFE 2214) is 20672.00, MA10 is 20681.50, MA20 is 20614.75, MA40 is 20499.25, and MA60 is 20337.83 [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The MA5 of the Aluminum Alloy main - contract (SHFE 6463) is 20073.00, MA10 is 20068.50, and MA20 is 19962.50 [10]. 2. Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; from January to June, the cumulative import volume reached 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From January to May 2025, China's bauxite production was 22.017 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.38%. Due to environmental protection and resource depletion, domestic bauxite production has declined, and the degree of external dependence will increase in the long term, but short - term fluctuations may be affected by factors such as shipping costs and geopolitics [15]. - **Alumina**: In June 2025, China's alumina production was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. Since 2024, alumina production has shown a slight increase, and in 2025, with the resumption of production and new capacity, the growth rate has further increased, and it is expected to achieve double - digit growth for the whole year. As of July 25, 2025, the total alumina inventory (market + factory) was 1.7235 million tons, and it is expected to continue to rise slightly in the second half of the year [20][23]. 3. Middle - Stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum import volume was about 1.924 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 12.499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Since 2024, primary aluminum imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is relatively stable with a slight increase. Since 2024, the operating capacity has continued to grow due to sufficient hydropower in the southwest and new capacity investment. In 2025, with the decline in alumina prices and the increase in profits, the operating capacity has maintained a high - level operation [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.57% year - on - year and decreased by 3.23% month - on - month. It is expected that the aluminum - water ratio will decline in July [35]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: As of July 29, 2025, the full cost of self - supplied power aluminum plants is about 14,227 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 652 yuan/ton; the full cost of grid - connected power aluminum plants is about 18,455 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 2,124 yuan/ton, maintaining a high level [39]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: In 2024, the aluminum ingot inventory change was small. In 2025, the inventory first decreased and then increased. Now it has entered the slack season and is in the process of slight inventory accumulation [42]. 4. Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry has been low, except for the aluminum foil and aluminum plate - strip sectors with an operating rate of 70% - 90%. In 2025, after the Spring Festival, the resumption of work varied. In the slack season, the operating rate of each sector declined, but the profile sector showed a slight increase [50]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In June 2025, the import volume of un - wrought aluminum alloy was 77,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 20.2%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 542,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. The export volume in June was 25,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 66%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 120,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [53]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: From January to June 2025, China's recycled aluminum alloy ingot production reached 3.5593 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.65% [56]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has increased, especially after entering the slack season in May, and it is expected to continue to rise in the short term [59]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In June 2025, China exported 489,000 tons of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products; from January to June, the cumulative export volume was 2.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. Affected by global trade barriers and tariffs, aluminum product exports may continue to decline [63]. 5. Industrial Chain Terminals - **Real Estate**: In the first half of 2025, real - estate investment, sales area, and new - construction area all declined. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, and it will take time to recover [69][72]. - **Automobile**: In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% and 13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. The development of new - energy vehicles is rapid, but there is an "anti - involution" expectation, and the growth rate may slow down [75]. - **Home Appliance**: In June 2025, the production of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased to varying degrees. However, since 2025, the growth rate of the three major home appliances has slowed down, and it is expected to weaken further in the second half of the year [78]. - **Power Grid Investment**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China plans to invest 388 billion yuan in 38 UHV projects. In 2025, at least 2 AC and 4 DC UHV lines will start construction. From January to June, the national power grid project investment was 254 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.7%, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth [81]. - **Photovoltaic**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity in China was 212.2 GW, a year - on - year increase of 107%. It is expected that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 250 GW in 2025, and the global new installed capacity will reach about 580 GW. After the end of the first - half rush - installation and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field, the industry has cooled down [84]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China imported 156,000 tons of scrap aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The import of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong due to the large price difference between refined and scrap aluminum [87]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - **Alumina**: In 2025, the supply of alumina has become more relaxed, and it is expected to maintain this state in the second half of the year [88]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In 2025, the supply - demand situation of electrolytic aluminum has deteriorated compared with 2024, and the degree of oversupply is expected to be more serious [89]. 7. Aluminum Price Seasonal Analysis Based on a 5 - year statistics up to 2025, the expected return of aluminum price from January 1st to December 31st is 1.15%, with 3 times of price increase and 2 times of price decrease. The maximum amplitude is 9.05%, the minimum amplitude is 4.63%, and the average amplitude is 6.56% [92].

2024年1至12月份，焦作万方的营业收入构成为：铝行业占比100.0%。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——"我们也深陷残酷价格战"！德资巨头中国区高管警告：智驾绝不能免费， 否则会给全行业带来灾难 （记者 王瀚黎） 每经AI快讯，焦作万方（SZ 000612，最新价：8.47元）8月1日晚间发布公告称，公司第九届第二十一 次董事会会议于2025年8月1日采取现场方式召开。会议审议了《关于选举公司第十届董事会非独立董事 的议案》等文件。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the supply of bauxite is expected to tighten due to the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine - right suspension, which will support the bottom of the ore price. However, the significant increase in bauxite imports from January to July (+34%), high port inventories, and the resumption of production of suspended mines limit the upside space of imported bauxite prices, and the price will mainly remain in the bottom - range operation [7][57]. - The stimulus of the "anti - involution" policy for over - capacity industries on related industrial products has temporarily ended. The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged. If relevant policies do not cover this industry, the alumina price will still be under pressure. The alumina futures price rose rapidly this month, reopening the spot - futures arbitrage window and attracting demand for spot delivery products. But the window will close again at the end of the month, weakening the support for the spot. Before the policy is clear, one should be cautious about the upside space of alumina. If there is a high point, short - selling can be considered [7][57]. - In the cast - aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap - aluminum supply, cast - aluminum will continue to fluctuate within a range following the Shanghai Aluminum, maintaining a low - level negative spread structure between AD - AL [7][59]. - At the electrolytic - aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level. The demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, with the real - estate side continuing to drag down and a slight decline in demand in the photovoltaic field. However, there is still support from the new - energy vehicle and cable sectors. Considering that August is the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, if the aluminum price continues to fall and the peak season approaches, there may be a certain increase in demand [7][59]. - Overall, the direct impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the aluminum industry is limited, and it mainly causes fluctuations in the market due to changes in sentiment. After the digestion of policy - expectation sentiment, the aluminum price trend will return to the fundamentals. In August, as the off - season is more than half over and the end of the month will see the transition from the off - season to the peak season, the aluminum price is expected to first decline and then rise, with the main operating range in August being 20,000 - 20,900 yuan/ton. A band - trading strategy should be maintained [7][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the overall operating center moving up compared to the previous month. The main increase was concentrated in the first and middle ten - days. Following the continuous repair of the macro - sentiment, the aluminum price followed the industrial - product sector and continued to run strongly. The index reached a maximum of 20,940 yuan/ton, but was significantly suppressed at the 21,000 - yuan integer mark. With the weakening of the macro - optimistic atmosphere and the cooling of market risk - preference sentiment, Shanghai Aluminum began to decline in the second half of July and continued to decline until the end of the month [9]. - Fundamentally, although July is the traditional consumption off - season, the aluminum - ingot inventory performance remained strong, staying below 500,000 tons. The inflection point of inventory accumulation was basically confirmed around the second half of the month, which provided impetus for the rise of the aluminum price. The import window remained closed during the month, and the import loss slightly increased compared to the beginning of the month, with a loss of about - 1,500 yuan/ton [9]. - Throughout the month, the Shanghai Aluminum index opened at 20,460 yuan/ton, reached a maximum of 20,940 yuan/ton, a minimum of 20,230 yuan/ton, and closed at 20,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.02% compared to the end of the previous month. As of the end of the month, the total open interest of the index was 591,000 lots, a decrease of 68,097 lots compared to the end of the previous month, and the trading volume decreased by 319,000 lots to 5.88 million lots compared to the end of the previous month. The London Aluminum opened at 2,595 US dollars/ton, reached a maximum of 2,664.5 US dollars/ton, a minimum of 2,555.5 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,562.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the end of the previous month. The open interest at the end of the month was 684,000 lots, a decrease of 11,404 lots compared to the end of the previous month, and the trading volume decreased by 34,039 lots to 377,000 lots compared to the end of the previous month [9]. 3.2 Supply - side of the Fundamentals 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply remained stable in July 2025. There was no significant change in supply, and there was no oversupply. The prices of bauxite in various regions remained flat compared to the previous month. For example, in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou, the prices of bauxite with specific aluminum - silicon ratios and alumina contents remained unchanged [14]. - For imported bauxite, as of the end of the month, the average CIF price of Guinea bauxite was 73.5 US dollars/ton, a slight decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared to the end of the previous month; the average CIF price of Australian bauxite was 69.5 US dollars/ton, also a slight decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared to the end of the previous month. In June 2025, China imported 18.116 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 3.44% and a year - on - year increase of 36.21%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. In July, the domestic arrival of Guinea bauxite was still from before the rainy season in Guinea and was less affected by the mine - right revocation event, with a high shipment volume. It is expected that the total amount of bauxite imported from Guinea will decline from August to October [15]. 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, as of July 31, the weighted average price of alumina in major regions was 3,252.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 137.8 yuan/ton or 4.42% compared to the end of the previous month. The prices in various domestic regions all increased. The overseas FOB price of alumina in Western Australia was 377 US dollars/ton, and after conversion, it was about 3,347 yuan/ton at domestic ports, higher than the domestic price, and the alumina import window remained closed [20]. - In terms of production capacity and output, in July 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina output was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. As of the end of July, the built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina was about 110.32 million tons, the actual operating capacity increased by 2.00% month - on - month, and the operating rate was 81.6%. In August, the alumina price is still high, and the profitability of alumina plants is good. Only a few enterprises are expected to carry out routine maintenance, and the impact on production is limited. The operating capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina is expected to continue to increase slightly [21]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In July 2025, the domestic electrolytic - aluminum output was 3.7214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.05% and a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly in July, mainly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan. As of the end of the month, the built - in production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 45.69 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. In August, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain at a high level, and the second - phase replacement project in Yunnan will be put into production and start outputting [28]. - In terms of imports and exports, the external market is stronger than the domestic market. The import window remains closed, and domestic demand is weak. The enthusiasm of overseas suppliers to send goods to China has decreased, and the net import of electrolytic aluminum in July is expected to remain at a low level. In June 2025, the domestic primary - aluminum export volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary - aluminum export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, the domestic primary - aluminum import volume was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary - aluminum import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [35]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of July 31, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 544,000 tons, an increase of 76,000 tons compared to the end of the previous month, at a low level in the same period in the past three years. The inventory of aluminum rods in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 147,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the end of the previous month. In London, the aluminum - ingot inventory of the London Metal Exchange was 461,025 tons, an increase of 112,400 tons compared to the end of the previous month [40]. 3.3 Demand - side of the Fundamentals 3.3.1 Real - estate Sector - The real - estate industry's aluminum consumption is mainly concentrated in the housing completion stage, including new - house doors and windows, aluminum formwork, and curtain - wall decoration. From January to June, national real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new - construction area, completion area, sales area, and sales volume of real - estate all showed varying degrees of decline. In July, the performance of building profiles was still sluggish. Most enterprises reported a significant decrease in building - material orders, and some enterprises are transforming to industrial profiles. It is expected that the situation will remain sluggish in August [47][50][51]. 3.3.2 Automotive Sector - In January 2025, eight departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on the 2025 automobile trade - in program, expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for scrapping and replacement subsidies. In the first half of 2025, the automobile trade - in policy continued to be effective, and the passenger - car market continued to perform well. In June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. The domestic sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the export decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% [54][55]. 3.4 Market Outlook - As mentioned above, in August, the aluminum price is expected to first decline and then rise, with the main operating range from 20,000 to 20,900 yuan/ton. A band - trading strategy should be maintained [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with prices likely to be weak first and then strong in August. The price of aluminum ore is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and may turn stronger in the fourth quarter if certain conditions are met. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by the capacity ceiling, and the demand in the downstream industry is in a mixed situation. The market is in a state of intense long - short game in the short - term, but the supply - demand situation in August is relatively optimistic [5][11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The short - term lack of new stimulus policies, a decline in investors' risk appetite, and the withdrawal of funds from the industrial products sector have narrowed the volatility of aluminum prices. With inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season as negative factors, the short - term price is under pressure. However, August is the transition period between the off - season and peak season, and with the decline of the US manufacturing index and the expectation of interest rate cuts, as well as domestic support policies, the price may be weak first and then strong. It is advisable to consider mid - line long positions below 2000 yuan [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The price was expected to enter a wide - range oscillation stage, with the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract seen in the range of 20200 - 20900, and it was recommended to wait and see [8]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price may be weak first and then strong in August. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be in the range of 20300 - 20900, and short - term trading is appropriate for now [9]. - **Suggestion for Spot Enterprises' Hedging**: Spot enterprises can consider appropriately allocating virtual inventory in futures at low prices [10]. 3.3 Overall View - **Aluminum Ore Market**: In the short - term, the supply of domestic aluminum ore is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported ore at ports and alumina plants is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short - term. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter and may turn stronger in the fourth quarter if the shipment from Guinea remains low and domestic inventory continues to decline [11]. - **Alumina Market**: In July, the operating capacity of national metallurgical alumina remained stable at about 88.27 million tons per year. There are new capacity projects in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity may reach a new high in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to the rainy season in Guinea and the operating capacity of alumina under the anti - involution situation [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: With the repair of smelting profits, some production capacity that was cut last year has gradually resumed. The current capacity utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum has exceeded 95%, and new capacity is limited due to the capacity ceiling [11]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1300 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been growing, and although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, the overall performance is resilient [11]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased slightly. Different sectors have different situations. For example, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles and aluminum foil is expected to remain low, while the start - up rate of aluminum cables may recover in August [13]. - **Inventory**: The latest inventory of aluminum ingots is 512,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 35% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,800 tons, a decrease of about 10% from last week and an increase of about 5% from last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July [13]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3200 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Expectation**: The proportion of alumina production lines over 10 years old is about 45%. There is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the anti - involution background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze. However, there is no clear policy on alumina capacity clearance in the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027, and the supply side has no obvious constraints for now. The short - term long - short game is intense [14]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of most important industry links have changed slightly. For example, the price of alumina has risen and then fallen, the price of coal has continued to rise steadily, and the price of electrolytic aluminum has risen and then fallen, hitting resistance at the 21,000 level [15][16]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of aluminum ore at ports has increased, the inventory of alumina has increased slightly, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory has continued to increase [18][20]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The cash cost of the alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 600 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3200 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1700 yuan/ton [22]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% compared with last week, and is 3.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Different sectors have different trends, and the overall start - up rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [26][27]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The overall price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the strength has weakened compared with last month [31]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1430 yuan/ton this week, wider than last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the price of electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has continued to rise slightly in the past 11 weeks. Since May, the short side has reduced positions overall, and the long side has increased positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has decreased slightly. Both the long and short sides have increased positions slightly in the past week. The net long position of financial speculative funds has increased first and then decreased, remaining at the same level as last week. The net short position of funds from mid - downstream enterprises has decreased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to have a certain premium squeezed out in August and September, but the depth of the correction is not significant. The key lies in the limited height of the current inventory accumulation. The possibility of a lackluster peak season in late August and September depends on whether the pre - placement of previous export demand has led to a lack of quality in traditional second - half export orders [3]. - Alumina prices continue to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although there are uncertainties on the supply side, the supply - side relaxation in the spot market may put pressure on the price [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract has shown a mild downward trend after failing to break through near the 21,000 mark. The premium of traditional non - ferrous metals has been squeezed out, but the decline is relatively mild [3]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of July 31, the SMM East China spot has turned to a discount, with a discount of 20 yuan/ton on Friday. The aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons. The weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has rebounded, but the cumulative output since the beginning of the year has still decreased by 0.73%. The output and sample production schedule of aluminum profiles have continued to weaken. The processing fee of aluminum rods has increased by 110 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [3]. 3.2 Alumina - **Price Trend**: The price center has continued to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although the spot price showed a turning point this week, considering the possible further relaxation of spot supply in mid - August, the futures price may still face pressure [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 31, the national alumina inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week. The in - plant inventory decreased by 2.3 tons, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 4.6 tons, the port inventory remained unchanged, and the yard/platform/in - transit inventory increased by 1.3 tons [51]. 3.3 Transaction - related - **Term Spread**: This week, the A00 spot premium has weakened, while the alumina spot premium has strengthened. The Shanghai Aluminum near - month spread has widened [11][12]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of both the Shanghai Aluminum and alumina main contracts have declined [14]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract has declined, and that of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [19]. 3.4 Inventory - related - **Bauxite**: As of August 1, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 1.44 million tons week - on - week. As of June, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises has continued to decline. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia has decreased, while the floating inventory has increased. The outbound volume of Guinea has increased, and the inbound volume has slightly decreased [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. As of July 31, the inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week [51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July 31, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons [52]. - **Aluminum Rod**: The spot and in - plant inventories have slightly decreased, and the outbound volume has increased [58]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Strip - Foil**: As of June, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has slightly decreased, while the raw - material inventory ratio has slightly increased. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate, strip, and foil has significantly increased, and the raw - material inventory has greatly increased [60]. 3.5 Production - related - **Bauxite**: As of July, the domestic bauxite production under the SMM caliber has slightly increased. The production in Shanxi has remained stable under the Steel Union caliber in June and slightly decreased under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Henan has increased slightly under the Steel Union caliber in June and decreased by 3.2 tons under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Guangxi has decreased significantly under the Steel Union caliber in June and increased by 8.94 tons under the SMM caliber in July [65][69]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has remained stable. As of August 1, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 94.6 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100,000 tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production this week was 1.847 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level in recent years [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of June, the operating capacity has remained at a high level. As of July 31, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum under the Steel Union caliber was 845,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week. The aluminum - water ratio has decreased seasonally [78]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods has decreased by 1,290 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum rods has increased by 3,400 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has increased by 4,950 tons week - on - week [81]. 3.6 Profit - related - **Alumina**: The smelting profit has continued to recover, with a slight decline this week. The profit in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan has remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi is better than that in other regions [89]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remains at a high level, but global macroeconomic complexity, geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [98]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly increased by 110 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [99]. 3.7 Consumption - related - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai Aluminum have widened. In June 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has significantly decreased by 57,000 tons month - on - month [107][109]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing has declined, while the automobile production has increased month - on - month [116].