Core Points - The former chairman of Jingyi Co., Ltd. resigned due to exposure of a dishonesty record, leading to the election of a new chairman, Gu Chong, who is a financial director born in the 1980s [1][5][6] - Gu Chong has a background in finance, having previously worked at Nantong Sanjian Group and its holding company, which is also a major shareholder of Jingyi [3][4] - Following the leadership change, Jingyi's stock price experienced significant volatility, reaching a recent high before a sharp decline on the day of the new chairman's election [4][6] Company Background - Jingyi Co., Ltd. was established in 1999 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2009, primarily engaged in copper processing products [4] - The company has faced substantial revenue fluctuations over the past five years, with a reported revenue drop of over 60% in 2022 and net profit consistently below 100 million yuan [4] Regulatory Context - The resignation of the former chairman was prompted by a regulatory decision from the Guangdong Securities Regulatory Commission, which highlighted failures in disclosing the chairman's dishonesty status [5][6] - The commission mandated Jingyi to rectify its governance issues and replace the chairman within two trading days of the decision [5]

2 0 2 5 . 7 . 1 5 原木周报 中泰期货股份有限公司 高萍 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 目录 CONTENTS 1 原木综述 2 原木平衡表解析 3 原木供需解析 4 原木成本利润 Part 1 原木综述 1.1 原木综述——供给端 5 原木价格与价差 | | | 项目 | 单位 | 2025年5月 2025/7/11 | 2025年4月 2025/7/4 | 环比 | 累计 同比 | 预估下周/月 根据三方数据线性预估 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国外 | 到船量 | 条 | 10 | 13 | -3 | —— | 6条 | | | | | 到港量 | 万方 | 34.35 | 44.3 | -9.95 | | 19.2万方 | | | | | 针叶原木进口量 | | 219.07 | 218.46 | 0.61 | -11% | | | | | | 辐射松进口量 | | 169.00 | 165.45 | 3.55 | -6% | | 短期来看，下周到港仍处低位，供应端具 ...

Core Insights - The Xi'an International Port is becoming a crucial hub for the China-Europe Railway Express, enhancing the integration of local enterprises into global supply chains [1][4] - The development of smart manufacturing and logistics in Xi'an is exemplified by companies like Geely and Aijiu Group, which leverage the railway for efficient production and distribution [2][3] Group 1: Company Developments - Geely's Xi'an manufacturing base has achieved an output of 142,000 vehicles and a production value of 15.773 billion yuan from January to May this year, fostering a local automotive ecosystem [1] - Aijiu Group has established a "three-in-one" logistics processing park across Kazakhstan and Xinjiang, importing nearly 100,000 tons of feed wheat through the railway in the first half of the year [2] - Konka's smart home appliance production line operates under China's Industry 4.0 standards, with over 60% of its products exported via the China-Europe Railway Express, totaling 229,000 appliances shipped by June [3] Group 2: Industry Impact - The China-Europe Railway Express (Xi'an) has expanded to 18 international routes, with a projected increase in train operations from over 100 in the early days to 4,985 by 2024 [3] - The railway has become a key driver for the development of Xi'an's hub economy, facilitating the flow of goods and enhancing the city's outward economic growth [3] - The establishment of the China-Xi'an Kazakhstan terminal marks a significant upgrade in logistics capabilities, transitioning from "point-to-point" to "hub-to-hub" operations [3]

极目新闻记者 袁超一 7月15日，湖北省发改委发布公告，湖北成品油价格按机制下调，92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油每升分别下降0.1元、0.11元、0.1元。 根据近期国际市场油价变化情况和国家发改委调价信息，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，自2025年7月15日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品）每吨分别 下调130元和125元。调价后，我省汽、柴油最高零售价格相应调整，92号、95号汽油分别下降至每升7.27元、7.78元，0号柴油降至每升6.9元。 以油箱容量50升的普通私家车计算，此次调价后，车主们空油箱加满92号汽油将少花5元左右。 湖北市场油价（图源：湖北省发改委） 本轮是2025年第十四次调价，也是2025年的第六次下调。本次调价过后，2025年成品油调价将呈现"六涨六跌两搁浅"的格局。根据"十个工作日"原则，下一 次调价窗口将在2025年7月29日24时开启。 国内机构分析称，展望后市，美国对产油国的制裁立场延续，且美国传统燃油消费旺季仍在进行中，不过OPEC+增产将在7到9月进行，地缘局势也有缓和 趋势，多空博弈迹象可能再度增强。整体来看，预计下一轮成品油调价搁浅的概率较大。 国家发展改革委强调 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non-US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading in the next stage, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by supply tightness expectations, but the high - capacity operation and market surplus situation remain. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2,950 - 3,250 this week. For aluminum, the current price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, the price of the main contract is expected to face pressure in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 this week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress price increases. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, but the increase in domestic mine production in June fell short of expectations, providing price support. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand has weakened marginally. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel has loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. In the short term, the macro situation is volatile. It is recommended to hold existing short positions from previous highs and pay attention to US tariff changes [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level ferronickel price weakens cost support, the supply - side production cuts fall short of expectations, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still face pressure, and the surplus may increase. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract reference range of 63,000 - 68,000, but there is still downward pressure in the medium term [20]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 116.4 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%. The import profit and loss improved by 200.42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import profit and loss decreased by 605.76 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased to 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 64,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41%. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. In May, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 250,500 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30%. In May, the un - wrought aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 97,000 tons, an increase of 11.75% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. In May, the stainless steel import volume was 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. In May, the lithium carbonate import volume was 21,146 tons, a decrease of 25.37% [20]. Spread - **Copper**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 70 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 340 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 150 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, and the 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan/ton [20].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen significant performance forecasts from nearly 1500 listed companies for the first half of 2025, with over 630 companies expecting positive results and more than 820 anticipating declines [1] Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Over 800 listed companies disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with a notable focus on companies from Hunan province [1] - Among the companies, Huaneng Power ranked second in terms of year-on-year profit growth [1] - A total of 56 stocks are expected to see net profit growth exceeding 1000%, with Southern Precision, Huaneng Power, and others leading the list [2] Group 2: Major Profit Increases - Southern Precision forecasts a net profit of 200 million to 250 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28647% to 35784%, primarily due to non-recurring gains from equity investments [2] - China Shenhua, Zijin Mining, and others are expected to report net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Muyuan Foods projecting a net profit of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [2] Group 3: Expected Losses - Some companies, including Vanke A, Huaxia Happiness, and Tongwei Co., are forecasting significant losses, with Vanke A expecting a loss of 10 billion to 12 billion yuan due to decreased project settlement scale and low profit margins [3] - Vanke A has taken steps to mitigate debt risks, securing 24.9 billion yuan in new financing and successfully repaying 16.49 billion yuan in public debt [3] - Huaneng Power is expected to report a net profit of 180 million to 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 175 million to 215 million yuan, driven by increased power generation and reduced fuel costs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in fuel prices reflects the ongoing fluctuations in international oil markets, with a notable decrease in retail prices for gasoline and diesel, which is expected to impact consumer costs and logistics expenses positively [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of July 15, 2025, retail prices for gasoline and diesel will decrease by 130 yuan and 125 yuan respectively, translating to reductions of 0.10 yuan for 92 gasoline, 0.11 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 0.11 yuan for 0 diesel per liter [1]. - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92 gasoline will save approximately 5 yuan [1]. - For a heavy-duty truck running 10,000 kilometers monthly with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will decrease by around 195 yuan before the next price adjustment [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current pricing cycle has seen a weak fluctuation in international oil prices due to a combination of seasonal demand in the U.S. and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, alongside an unexpected production increase from OPEC+ [1]. - Analysts predict that the upcoming price adjustments will lead to a negative change rate, indicating potential downward pressure on future market conditions [1][2]. - Domestic supply of refined oil is expected to increase as major refineries resume operations, while demand for diesel may decline due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions affecting construction activities [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The next price adjustment window is scheduled for July 29, 2025, which will provide further insights into market trends and pricing strategies [3].

Company Overview - JianKe Intelligent Equipment Manufacturing (Tianjin) Co., Ltd. has been dedicated to the intelligent rebar processing robot equipment industry for over 20 years, becoming one of the largest and most comprehensive companies in this sector in China and globally [2][3] - The company aims to be a global leader in intelligent rebar processing robot technology, focusing on high-quality development and providing comprehensive solutions for green transformation and digital upgrades in production equipment [2][4] Intellectual Property - As of December 31, 2024, the company holds 616 valid patents, including 282 domestic invention patents, 312 utility model patents, and 14 foreign invention patents [4] - The company has registered 103 trademarks, including 48 domestic, 9 from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, and 46 international trademarks [4] Market Expansion Strategy - In 2025, the company plans to pursue a dual strategy of global expansion and local deepening, focusing on emerging markets and high-potential regions [5] - Domestic strategy includes deepening strategic cooperation with various downstream sectors and developing large intelligent rebar processing robot clusters [5] - Internationally, the company will follow the "Belt and Road" initiative, expanding its export footprint to over 100 countries and enhancing its global marketing and service networks [6] Industry Barriers - The intelligent rebar processing equipment industry has high technical barriers due to the complexity of production technology and the integration of various advanced technologies [4][6] - The industry requires significant long-term investment in technology and experience to meet the demands of technological advancement and green development [4] Product Innovation: Smart Beam Factory - The Smart Beam Factory T-beam robot production line automates processes that previously required 10+ workers, reducing the workforce needed to just 3-5 operators with a 90% automation rate [7][8] - The production line addresses challenges in rebar processing, significantly improving efficiency and quality [7][9] - The system integrates functions such as rebar straightening, cutting, bending, placement, transportation, and welding, ensuring high-quality connections and efficient production [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company Yiqiu Resources (601388) expects a significant decrease in net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, primarily due to exchange rate fluctuations and increased fixed costs [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company ranging from 22.53 million to 32.53 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a decrease of 36 million to 46 million yuan compared to 68.53 million yuan in the same period last year, which is a year-on-year decline of 53% to 67% [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 25.64 million and 36.64 million yuan, down from 71.64 million yuan in the previous year, indicating a reduction of 35 million to 46 million yuan, or a year-on-year decrease of 49% to 64% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual metal ratings include: Copper - "震荡" (Oscillation); Alumina - "震荡" (Oscillation); Aluminum - "短期仓单数量和累库仍需观察，预计价格区间震荡；中长期消费仍有隐忧，视库存和升贴水拐点区间思路偏逢高空" (Short - term: Observe warehouse receipts and inventory accumulation, expect price range - bound oscillation; Medium - to long - term: Consumption has concerns, consider shorting on rallies based on inventory and premium/discount inflection points); Aluminum Alloy - "震荡" (Oscillation); Zinc - "震荡偏弱" (Oscillation with a weak bias); Lead - "震荡" (Oscillation); Nickel - "震荡偏弱" (Oscillation with a weak bias); Stainless Steel - "震荡" (Oscillation); Tin - "震荡" (Oscillation) [1][5][6][9][10][13][14][16][17][20][21] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff game continues, and the expectation of domestic policy stimulus is increasing. Overall, the macro - expectation is volatile, and non - ferrous metals will continue to oscillate. In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of basic metals are gradually seasonally loosening, and domestic inventories are gradually rising seasonally. In the short - to medium - term, tariff uncertainty and weakening demand expectations suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Focus on structural opportunities, cautiously consider short - term long positions in aluminum and tin on dips, and short zinc ingots on rallies. In the long - term, the demand prospects of basic metals are still uncertain, and shorting opportunities on rallies for some varieties with excess or expected excess supply and demand can be considered [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The time for the US copper tariff to take effect may be advanced, and the price of Shanghai copper is under pressure. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, Trump's claim to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper has led to a significant increase in COMEX copper prices. The US Secretary of Commerce said the tariff may be implemented at the end of the month, weakening the siphon effect on copper in the US and alleviating the tight supply - demand situation in non - US regions, putting pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, copper ore processing fees continue to decline, and raw material supply is still tight. The demand is weakening as the consumption off - season approaches. Domestic and foreign inventories are accumulating again, and the risk of LME squeeze has eased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints still exist, and inventories are at a low level, but demand is marginally weakening, and the US copper tariff is unfavorable to Shanghai copper prices. It is expected to show an oscillatory pattern [5][6] 3.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Market rumors suggest that the mining permit issue has eased, and the alumina futures price has declined. - **Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and operating capacity and inventories are gradually rising. The Guinean government's new policies may increase corporate costs and affect the bottom - line expectation of ore prices. - **Outlook**: Cautious reverse arbitrage [6] 3.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory has significantly accumulated, and aluminum prices have declined under pressure. - **Logic**: The short - term tariff negotiation deadline is postponed, but there is still strong uncertainty. The fundamentals have shown marginal weakening signs, with inventory accumulation, spot discounts, and a decrease in the risk of near - month squeeze. - **Outlook**: Short - term: Observe warehouse receipts and inventory accumulation, expect price range - bound oscillation; Medium - to long - term: Consumption has concerns, consider shorting on rallies based on inventory and premium/discount inflection points [9] 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Demand has entered the off - season, and the futures price has corrected. - **Logic**: Short - term, ADC12 faces a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, while demand is in the off - season. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 is expected to rise in the future. - **Outlook**: Short - term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate at low levels, following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. There is room for an increase in the future, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [10][12] 3.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are in excess, and zinc prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the prices of black - series products are rebounding. The supply of zinc ore is loosening in the short - term, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and demand expectations are general. Zinc ingot inventories are accumulating, and the support for zinc prices is weakening. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will continue to increase, and downstream demand will enter the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13][14] 3.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the spot market, the discount has narrowed, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. On the supply side, the price of scrap batteries has decreased slightly, and the production of recycled lead is at a low level. On the demand side, the off - season has not completely passed, but the start - up rate of lead - acid battery factories is higher than the same period in previous years. - **Outlook**: The US tariff suspension period is postponed to August 1st, but the announced tariffs are high, and the macro - situation is still uncertain. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the start - up rate of battery factories is recovering. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost support of recycled lead is stable, and lead prices are expected to oscillate [14][15][16] 3.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Philippine nickel enterprises are increasing nickel ore exports, and nickel prices will oscillate widely in the short - term. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may loosen. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has slightly declined. The inventory has significantly accumulated, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: Philippine nickel enterprises are increasing nickel ore exports to Indonesia. Nickel prices will oscillate widely in the short - term, and long - term trends need further observation [16][17][18] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to weaken, and the stainless - steel futures price is running weakly. - **Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening. Although the futures price is rising, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In terms of supply and demand, stainless - steel production decreased in June but remained at a high level historically. As demand exits the peak season, there is a risk of weakening demand. Inventory has decreased, and the pressure of structural surplus has been alleviated. - **Outlook**: The weakening cost weakens the support for steel prices, but beware of the possibility of an expanded scale of production cuts due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. The demand side is putting pressure on steel prices as it exits the traditional peak season. Focus on inventory changes and cost changes in the future. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short - term [20] 3.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Logic**: The shortage of domestic tin ore is intensifying, and the replacement of Indonesian refined tin export licenses has brought new supply problems. The supply - demand fundamentals are tightening, strengthening the bottom support for tin prices. However, the impact of the short - term interruption of Indonesian exports may be limited, and the terminal demand for tin will weaken marginally in the second half of the year. - **Outlook**: The tightness of the ore end supports the tin price. Whether the tightness at the ore end can further accelerate the transmission to the ingot end will determine the height of the tin price in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [21]