| [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-01 | [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2026 年第 5 期） 25 年行业利润下降 42%，26 年盈利有望改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 SFC CE No. AUS961 010-59136686 shentao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 安鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 SFC CE No. BNW176 021-38003693 anpeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 宋炜 SAC 执证号：S0260518050002 SFC CE No. BMV636 021-38003691 songwei@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The port coal price has slightly increased due to a minor contraction in supply and pre-holiday demand for replenishment, with the current price at 692 RMB/ton [1] - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim has decreased by 1.60% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow has increased by 8.82%, leading to a significant reduction in inventory by 6.10% [1] - Despite the recent price increase, the overall coal price is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to high inventory levels and weakening industrial electricity demand as the New Year approaches [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,117.95 points, down 0.35% week-on-week, while the coal sector index rose by 1.57% [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector increased significantly by 69.64% [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic coal prices have shown stability with slight increases; for instance, the price of 5500 kcal coal in Datong rose by 20 RMB/ton to 602 RMB/ton [16] - The port coal price at Qinhuangdao increased by 7 RMB/ton to 692 RMB/ton [16] 3. International Coal Prices - The international coal price index has shown a slight increase, with the Newcastle coal price rising by 1.83 USD/ton to 111.26 USD/ton [19] 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily coal outflow from the Bohai Rim ports increased to 189.33 million tons, while the inflow decreased to 155.18 million tons [30] - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports increased by 21% to 100.50 vessels [34] 5. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets due to their low valuations [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, with a target price of RMB 46.85 per share for A-shares and HKD 45.80 per share for H-shares [6]. Core Views - The 25-year performance forecast is generally in line with expectations, and the acquisition of group assets is progressing smoothly [1]. - The forecast for the 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders is set at RMB 52 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.3% to 2.3%, which is better than the non-recurring profit performance [6]. - The company plans to acquire 12 assets from the National Energy Group for a total transaction price of RMB 133.6 billion, which is expected to enhance operational capabilities and profitability [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 343,074 million - 2024A: RMB 338,375 million - 2025E: RMB 310,460 million (down 8.2% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 327,292 million (up 5.4% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 338,435 million (up 3.4% YoY) [2][10] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 59,694 million - 2024A: RMB 58,671 million - 2025E: RMB 52,293 million (down 10.9% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 54,759 million (up 4.7% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 57,498 million (up 5.0% YoY) [2][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: RMB 3.00 - 2024A: RMB 2.95 - 2025E: RMB 2.63 - 2026E: RMB 2.76 - 2027E: RMB 2.89 [2][10] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Return on Equity (ROE): 14.6% in 2023A, declining to 11.9% in 2025E, then recovering to 12.3% in 2027E [2][10]. - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): 10.4 in 2023A, increasing to 15.9 in 2025E, then stabilizing around 14.5 in 2027E [2][10]. - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow is projected to be RMB 89,687 million in 2023A, decreasing to RMB 82,544 million in 2025E, and recovering to RMB 92,973 million by 2027E [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that national energy investment in China is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2025, with key project investments surpassing 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 11% [1] - The investment growth rate in the energy sector outpaces that of infrastructure and manufacturing by 12.9 and 10.1 percentage points, respectively [1] - Five provinces (Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu) each completed energy investments exceeding 200 billion yuan last year [1] Group 2 - In 2025, investments in green energy transition new formats are accelerating, with new installed capacity for wind and solar power exceeding 430 million kilowatts and cumulative installed capacity surpassing 1.8 billion kilowatts [1] - Investment in onshore wind power is showing strong growth, with key projects seeing a year-on-year investment increase of nearly 50% [1] - The new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries are experiencing significant growth, with key project investments doubling compared to the previous year [1] Group 3 - Investment in energy security key areas is expanding effectively, with good growth in coal power and conventional hydropower investments [1] - Major hydropower projects in the southwestern region are progressing steadily, increasing physical workload [1] - Investment in the power grid is maintaining stable growth, with accelerated construction of cross-provincial and cross-regional transmission channels [1] Group 4 - Private enterprises in the energy sector are also experiencing rapid investment growth, with key project investments increasing by 12.9% year-on-year, surpassing the national energy project growth rate by approximately 2 percentage points [2] - Private investments are primarily focused on solar power generation, wind power, and coal mining, with double-digit growth in onshore wind and distributed solar photovoltaic sectors [2]

Core Insights - The national energy investment in China is expected to maintain rapid growth, with the annual investment in key projects exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 11% [1] - The investment growth rate outpaces that of infrastructure and manufacturing by 12.9 and 10.1 percentage points, respectively [1] Group 1: Energy Investment Overview - In 2025, five provinces (Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu) each completed energy investments exceeding 200 billion yuan [1] - The new energy sector, particularly wind and solar power, is projected to see an addition of over 430 million kilowatts in installed capacity, with a cumulative installed capacity surpassing 1.8 billion kilowatts [1] - Investment in onshore wind power projects is expected to grow nearly 50% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Private Sector Investment - Private enterprises in the energy sector are also experiencing rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.9% in investment for key projects, which is about 2 percentage points higher than the national average [2] - The focus of private investment is primarily in solar power generation, wind power, and coal mining, with double-digit growth in onshore wind and distributed solar photovoltaic sectors [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest rates are fluctuating narrowly, credit bond yields have slightly declined, and most credit spreads are still narrowing. [3][9] - Most urban investment bond spreads have decreased by 1 - 2BP. [14] - Real - estate bond spreads are still widening, while most other industrial bond spreads are converging. [25] - This week, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds (Two - and - Perpetual bonds, "Two - and - Perpetual" bonds refer to bank Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds) have shown weak performance. Except for the 5Y variety, most yields have increased. [4][33] - The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has narrowed, while the excess spread of urban investment bonds has shown differentiation. [4][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest rates are fluctuating narrowly, credit bond yields have slightly declined, and most credit spreads are still narrowing - Interest - rate bond yields fluctuated narrowly. The yields of 1Y and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased by 1BP, the yield of 3Y decreased by 1BP, and the yields of 5Y and 7Y remained flat. [3][9] - Credit bond yields generally declined slightly. The yields of 1Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds increased by 1BP, while the other grades remained flat; the yield of 3Y AAA remained flat, and the other grades decreased by 2 - 4BP; the yields of 5Y AA + and above - grade remained flat, and the other grades increased by 1BP; the yields of 7Y all grades decreased by 1 - 3BP; the yields of 10Y all grades increased by 1BP. [3][9] - Most credit spreads slightly converged. The credit spreads of 1Y AA + and above - grade remained flat, and the other grades narrowed by 1BP; the spread of 3Y AAA increased by 1BP, the spread of AA - decreased by 1BP, and the other grades compressed by 3BP; the spreads of 5Y AA + and above - grade remained flat, and the other grades widened by 1BP; the spreads of 7Y all grades narrowed by 1 - 3BP; the spreads of 10Y all grades narrowed by 1BP. [3][9] 3.2 Most urban investment bond spreads have decreased by 1 - 2BP - In terms of external ratings, the credit spreads of external - rated AAA platforms generally decreased by 1BP compared with last week, and the credit spreads of AA + and AA platforms generally decreased by 2BP. [14] - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial - level platforms generally decreased by 1BP compared with last week, and the credit spreads of prefecture - level and district - county - level platforms generally decreased by 2BP. [19] 3.3 Real - estate bond spreads are still widening, while most other industrial bond spreads are converging - Most industrial bond spreads converged. The spread of Vanke continued to compress significantly, but the spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds and other private - enterprise real - estate bonds still widened overall. [25] - The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds widened by 1 - 3BP, the spread of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 188BP, and the spread of private - enterprise real - estate bonds increased by 15BP. [25] - The spread of Longfor decreased by 2BP, that of CIFI increased by 49BP, that of Vanke decreased by 1802BP, that of Midea Real Estate decreased by 1BP, that of Huafa increased by 13BP, and that of Poly increased by 3BP. [25] - The spread of AA - grade coal bonds increased by 1BP, and the other grades decreased by 1BP; the spread of AAA - grade steel bonds remained flat, and that of AA + decreased by 2BP; the spread of AAA - grade chemical bonds remained flat, and that of AA + decreased by 1BP. [25] 3.4 This week, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have shown weak performance. Except for the 5Y variety, most yields have increased - The yields of 1Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds remained flat, and the spreads decreased by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds increased by 1 - 2BP, and the spreads increased by 0 - 1BP. [33] - The yields of 3Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads widened by 3 - 4BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds remained flat, and the spreads widened by 1BP. [33] - The yields of 5Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds decreased by 0 - 2BP, the yields of perpetual bonds remained flat, and the spreads changed by the same margin. [33] - The yields of 10Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 2 - 5BP, and the spreads widened by 1 - 3BP; the yields of perpetual bonds increased by 5BP, and the spreads increased by 3BP. [33] 3.5 The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has narrowed, while the excess spread of urban investment bonds has shown differentiation - The excess spread of industrial AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds converged by 0.76BP compared with last week to 13.91BP, at the 36.17% percentile since 2015. The excess spread of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds remained the same as last week at 13.21BP, at the 33.60% percentile since 2015. [36] - The excess spread of urban - investment AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.83BP to 4.86BP, at the 5.43% percentile. The excess spread of urban - investment 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 3.72BP to 9.62BP, at the 11.15% percentile. [36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and ChinaBond Perpetual Bonds data. The historical percentiles are since the beginning of 2015. [38] - The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical percentiles are since the beginning of 2015. [38] - The credit spreads of industrial and urban - investment individual bonds = the ChinaBond valuation (exercise) of individual bonds - the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by the linear interpolation method), and finally the arithmetic average method is used to calculate the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban - investment bonds. [40] - The excess spread of bank Tier 2 capital bonds/perpetual bonds = the credit spread of bank Tier 2 capital bonds/perpetual bonds - the credit spread of bank ordinary bonds of the same grade and term. The excess spread of industrial/urban - investment perpetual bonds = the credit spread of industrial/urban - investment perpetual bonds - the credit spread of medium - term notes of the same grade and term. [40] - Sample screening criteria and other information: Both industrial and urban - investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bond samples, and exclude guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds. If the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it will be excluded from the statistical samples. Industrial and urban - investment bonds are all external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings. [40]

Core Viewpoint - The closure of the last hard coal mine in the Czech Republic marks the end of over 250 years of hard coal mining history in the country, leading to approximately 900 miners facing unemployment [1][3]. Group 1: Closure of Hard Coal Mining - The last hard coal mine in the Czech Republic was closed on January 31, 2023, concluding a long history of coal mining in the region [3]. - The closure is attributed to the inability of current coal prices to cover high extraction costs, alongside a decline in market demand and economic inefficiency [3]. - The last hard coal power plant in the Czech Republic was shut down in 2025, indicating a significant shift away from coal dependency [3]. Group 2: Global Context and Environmental Impact - Hard coal, known for its high calorific value and carbon content, was historically referred to as "black gold" and was essential for the industrial revolution, steel production, and electricity generation [3]. - Due to environmental concerns related to high carbon emissions and declining economic viability, many countries are implementing policies to phase out hard coal mining in favor of cleaner energy sources [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading coal enterprise in East China, focusing on a diversified strategy that emphasizes coal production while expanding into coal chemical, power generation, and aggregate businesses [6][8] - The report highlights the certainty of production increases from the resumption of the Xinhui Mine and the upcoming production of the Taohutu Mine, which are expected to significantly contribute to the company's profitability [9][10] - The company is expected to enhance shareholder returns through a planned dividend distribution of no less than 35% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for the years 2025-2027 [10][12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huabei Mining is a major coal enterprise in East China, with a focus on coal mining, processing, and chemical production, supported by a strong state-owned background [6][17] - The company has a total share capital of 2,693.26 million shares and a market capitalization of approximately 33,827.33 million yuan [1] Business Growth and Diversification - The company is actively pursuing a multi-faceted growth strategy, with coal production as the core, while also expanding into coal chemicals, power generation, and aggregates [8][9] - The Xinhui Mine, with a capacity of 3 million tons/year, is expected to resume production, contributing significantly to net profits in the coming years [29] - The Taohutu Mine, with a capacity of 8 million tons/year, is set to begin production in 2026, further enhancing the company's output and profitability [32] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 429.81 billion, 477.28 billion, and 508.09 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 14.95 billion, 26.24 billion, and 41.02 billion yuan [12][7] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 22.6X, 12.9X, and 8.2X for the respective years, indicating potential value for investors [12][7] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - The company is expected to enter a phase of reduced capital expenditure as major projects near completion, which will enhance its ability to return value to shareholders [10][12] - The planned dividend policy reflects a commitment to shareholder returns, with a minimum payout ratio set at 35% of net profits [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The closure of the last hard coal mine in the Czech Republic marks the end of over 250 years of hard coal mining history in the country, resulting in approximately 900 miners facing unemployment [1] Group 1: Industry Changes - The last hard coal power plant in the Czech Republic was closed in 2025, with current coal prices unable to cover high extraction costs [1] - The direct reasons for the closure of hard coal mines include the disappearance of market demand and low economic efficiency [1] - Despite a temporary spike in coal prices due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Czech Republic ultimately decided to fully terminate hard coal mining [1] Group 2: Environmental and Economic Factors - Hard coal, known as "black gold" for its high calorific value and carbon content, has been a core fuel for the industrial revolution and modern steelmaking and power generation [1] - The position of hard coal in energy production has become increasingly challenged due to environmental concerns related to high carbon emissions and declining economic viability [1] - Many countries worldwide are gradually phasing out hard coal mining through policies in favor of cleaner energy sources [1]

Core Insights - The National Energy Administration reported that the total investment in key energy projects exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 11% [1] - Investment in renewable energy and green transformation is accelerating, with renewable energy generation capacity expected to exceed 60% by 2025, and onshore wind power investment increasing by nearly 50% year-on-year [1] - Private sector investment in energy projects has also seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, particularly in solar power, wind power, and coal mining [2] Investment Growth - The total investment in key energy projects reached over 3.5 trillion yuan, marking a nearly 11% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Five provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, each completed investments exceeding 200 billion yuan [1] - The investment in new energy storage and hydrogen industries doubled compared to the previous year, with hydrogen production capacity reaching over 250,000 tons per year by the end of 2025 [1] Renewable Energy Focus - By 2025, renewable energy generation is projected to reach approximately 4 trillion kilowatt-hours, surpassing the total electricity consumption of the 27 EU countries [1] - The investment in onshore wind power projects has shown strong growth, with a nearly 50% increase year-on-year [1] - The development of hydrogen energy production, storage, and application processes is progressing, with significant technological breakthroughs achieved [1] Policy and Market Dynamics - The National Energy Administration plans to enhance policy support and market mechanisms to stimulate investment in green energy and optimize the development environment [2] - New policies, such as green electricity direct connection, are being implemented to facilitate the integration of renewable energy with industrial users [2] - The government aims to strengthen the institutional framework to ensure smooth project execution and enhance the synergy between policy and market forces [2] Energy Supply Stability - The overall energy supply remains stable, with sufficient coal reserves and a steady electricity supply during the winter peak [3] - As of January 27, the national coal inventory was 220 million tons, sufficient for 26 days of consumption [3] - Natural gas consumption during the heating season reached 119.52 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with stable supply from domestic and imported sources [3]