美国总统特朗普谈及更改俄罗斯"截止日期"并宣称，今天开始，10天内（若不与乌克兰达成停火协议）将对俄罗斯加征关税。 针对俄罗斯石油发出的二级制裁威胁，关税可能会影响到俄罗斯，也可能不会产生影响。 WTI原油期货短线上扬超过0.60美元，刷新日高至68.45美元，日内整体涨幅扩大至超过2.5% ...

墨西哥总统辛鲍姆计划7月31日敲定石油公司PEMEX的重组计划。 （文章来源：华尔街见闻） ...

Group 1 - Guangzhou Port maintains the highest domestic container throughput in China and experiences double-digit growth in foreign trade, with foreign trade cargo throughput increasing by 13.28% and foreign trade container throughput rising by 21.20% year-on-year [1] - In the first half of 2025, Guangzhou Port achieved a total cargo throughput of 343 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, and a container throughput of 13.82 million TEUs, up by 7.57%, ranking fifth and sixth globally respectively [1] - The port's international shipping center index has improved to 12th globally, surpassing Tokyo, marking a rise of one position compared to 2024 [1] Group 2 - The transformation of Guangzhou Port from a domestic trade hub to a comprehensive domestic and foreign trade hub is highlighted, indicating a significant historical shift [2] - The port's foreign trade business has seen substantial growth, with a total import and export value reaching 605.05 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a 15.5% year-on-year increase [3] - The port's performance contributes 13.1% to national foreign trade growth and 46.7% to Guangdong's foreign trade growth [3] Group 3 - Guangzhou Port has extended its "outbound" function into the industrial hinterland, establishing an "invisible port network" through sea-rail and river-sea intermodal transport [4] - The port has increased its foreign trade routes, adding seven new foreign trade routes in the first half of the year, bringing the total to 285, with 179 being foreign trade routes [4] - This strategic expansion positions Guangzhou Port as one of the ports with the most "Belt and Road" routes [4] Group 4 - The port's dual focus on domestic and foreign trade is expected to enhance its hub advantages and open up a "second growth curve" for the region [5]

【沥青】 | 《八》 国经期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月29日 | | 原油 | な女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 立☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | なな女 | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 下半年以来全球原油库存去化1.9%、成品油库存增加1.4%、总体石油库存自一、二季度分别增加1.9%、2.8%后下降 0.7%，关注OPEC+产量陆续回归后平衡表宽松预期能否持续兑现。周日欧美达成15%对等关税协议,较美国此前威胁 的30%减半，本周在瑞典举行的中美经贸谈判亦存在8月12日豁免到期后进一步延续90天的预期,宏观面走向存在利 好预期。我们此前预估的8月末、9月初地续博弈窗口亦随着特朗普缩 ...

奥斯曼帝国600年统治将宗教、政治、经济死死捆绑，地理位置让它昔日富甲一方，后因工业革命和新 航线衰落。中东脚踩全球60%的石油，却成了殖民、战争、转型的漩涡。石油究竟是天赐还是诅咒？新 能源崛起，中东未来路在何方？ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the analysis implies a short - term upward support situation [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend according to the star - rating system [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, suggesting a bearish trend [1] - Asphalt: Not explicitly stated, with a neutral view on supply and weak demand but some price support [3] - LPG: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias [1] Core View - The macro - economic and geopolitical factors have an impact on the energy market, with different products showing various trends. The overall energy market is affected by factors such as inventory changes, production adjustments, and demand fluctuations. The prices of these energy products generally follow the trend of crude oil to some extent, but each has its own supply - demand characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, global crude oil inventory has decreased by 1.9%, refined oil inventory has increased by 1.4%, and the overall petroleum inventory has decreased by 0.7% after increases in the first and second quarters. There are expectations for a more relaxed balance sheet after OPEC+ production returns. There are positive macro - economic expectations from trade agreements and negotiations. The short - term market has upward support [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Macro and geopolitical news boosts oil prices, but fuel - related futures' cracking spreads are expected to be under pressure. In July, the arrival volume in the Singapore market increased by 22.5% month - on - month to 6.55 million tons, and the demand for ship refueling weakened. The cracking spreads are likely to be in a weak and volatile state [2] Asphalt - The planned production in August decreased compared to July, but there are signs of potential production increases. Demand recovery is delayed in the South due to typhoons and is weak in the North. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The supply increase space is considered neutral, demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation, and the price is supported by low inventory and follows the crude oil trend with limited upward space [3] LPG - Traders are cautious about potential CP price cuts at the end of the month. Exports increase and put pressure on the overseas market. The import cost decline improves chemical profit margins, and the PDH operating rate has room to rise. The supply is relatively loose, and the market is under pressure, showing a weak and volatile trend [4]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Supply - side factors such as potential OPEC+ production increases and the structural shift of Russian crude oil supply to Asia cap the upside of oil prices, while demand is suppressed by factors like the decline in Indian imports and the Fed's tightening expectations. The domestic SC crude oil performs weaker than the international market due to the sharp increase in warehouse receipts and the expected suspension of refined oil price adjustments [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - As of July 28, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price closed at 505.9 yuan per barrel, down 7.0 yuan (-1.36%) from the previous Friday (July 25). In contrast, WTI and Brent rose by $1.91 (+2.94%) and $2.0 (+2.96%) respectively. The spread between domestic and international oil prices narrowed significantly, and the near - month premium of SC contracts widened to 30.7 yuan per barrel, indicating strengthened expectations of spot tightness [1]. - Intensified capital games in the industrial chain. The SC medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts increased by 732,000 barrels to 5.249 million barrels on July 28, hitting a recent high, suggesting rising domestic spot delivery pressure. The warehouse receipts of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil remained stable, indicating that the refinery's finished product supply did not accumulate in tandem with raw material inventories [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply: On July 28, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not adjust the production plan. US President Trump's threat to impose sanctions on Russia raised concerns about restricted Russian energy exports [3]. - Demand: India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% month - on - month to 20.32 million tons (the lowest since February), reflecting that high oil prices are suppressing emerging market demand. The expected suspension of refined oil price adjustments may further dampen domestic purchasing willingness [4]. - Inventory: The sharp increase in domestic SC medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts indicates significant spot market selling pressure. The accumulation of bonded delivery warehouse inventory may be related to the import arrival rhythm. The positive impact of US commercial crude oil inventory reduction is not clear, and the expected OPEC+ production increase may delay the arrival of the inventory inflection point [5]. c. Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Supply - side factors and demand - side constraints will cap the upside of oil prices. The domestic SC performs weaker than the international market. The widening Brent - WTI spread reflects the resilience of non - US market demand. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations and the OPEC+ production decision for September [6][7]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC decreased by 1.36%, WTI rose by 2.94%, and Brent rose by 2.96%. Spot prices of some crude oils remained stable or changed slightly. The spreads between different crude oils also changed, such as the narrowing of SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads and the widening of Brent - WTI spread [8]. - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.75%, Cushing inventory increased by 2.13%, and the US strategic reserve inventory decreased slightly. The API inventory decreased by 0.13%. - Refinery operations: The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.70%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 0.52% [8]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU decreased by 1.58%, LU decreased by 1.88%, and NYMEX fuel oil rose by 1.14%. Spot prices, paper - cargo prices, and spreads of fuel oil also showed different degrees of change. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.34% [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - On July 28, OPEC+ considered another production increase and urged member countries to comply with oil quotas. The price of Russia's Urals crude oil strengthened, and its discount to Brent narrowed to the lowest level since 2022. India's economic report expected global crude oil prices to remain low after OPEC's production increase exceeded expectations, and India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% month - on - month [10][11]. b. Demand - Mexico's state - owned oil company PEMEX's crude oil processing volume in the second quarter increased by 11% year - on - year. The refined oil price adjustment window will open on July 29. Russian Airlines canceled dozens of flights due to system problems [12]. c. Inventory - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 732,000 barrels, and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged [13]. d. Market Information - The market is cautious, and oil prices are expected to remain weakly volatile. The international crude oil price in this cycle fluctuated, and the retail price of refined oil is expected to be suspended. The market is trading on demand, and prices in the shipping fuel market are generally stable [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, while the medium - to - long - term supply is tight. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. Caution is needed [9][10] - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the near term. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in September [11] - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate recently [13] - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] - For plastics, it is expected to oscillate recently, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] - For PVC, it is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] - For coking coal, due to high volatility, cautious operation is advisable [19] - For urea, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on July 29, most domestic futures contracts declined. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, while glass dropped over 7%. In stock index futures, most contracts rose, and in treasury bond futures, most contracts declined [4] Capital Flows - As of 15:14 on July 29, rebar 2510, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had capital inflows of 1.39 billion, 1.272 billion, and 1.225 billion respectively. Lithium carbonate 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and ferromanganese silicon 2509 had capital outflows of 1.658 billion, 1.36 billion, and 827 million respectively [5] Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is currently loose due to tariff influence and may tighten in the long run. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price is declining. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [9][10] Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. OPEC+ will increase production. Prices are expected to oscillate [11] Asphalt - Supply and demand indicators show mixed trends. It is expected to oscillate recently [13] PP - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply and cost factors interact. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] Plastics - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply increases. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] Coking Coal - Supply is stable, and demand is strong. High volatility requires cautious operation [19] Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory removal slows. It is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that there will be no adjustment to domestic refined oil prices as of July 29, 2025, due to minimal fluctuations in international oil prices, with the adjustment amount being less than 50 yuan per ton [1] Group 1: Price Adjustment Overview - Domestic refined oil prices have undergone fifteen rounds of adjustments, resulting in a pattern of "six increases, six decreases, and three stabilities" [1] - After accounting for the increases and decreases, the overall prices of gasoline and diesel have decreased by 225 yuan/ton and 215 yuan/ton respectively compared to the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Future Price Expectations - The next price adjustment window will open on August 12, 2025, at 24:00 [1] - Analysts from Longzhong Information predict a higher probability of price increases in the next round due to potential supply risks from new U.S. sanctions on Russia and ongoing traditional fuel consumption peaks in the U.S. [1] - Analyst Wang Xueqin from Zhaocai Information also anticipates a bullish trend in oil prices, with an expected initial increase of 55 yuan/ton based on current international oil price levels [1]

从需求端来看，隆众资讯称，美国夏季出行高峰仍在推进，传统旺季提振燃油需求，需求季节性利好 延续。此外美国与日本和欧盟达成新的贸易协议，缓和市场担忧情绪，但美国关税问题引发的利空效 应并未消失，全球经济和需求前景仍令市场谨慎。 下一次调价窗口将在8月12日24时开启。隆众资讯表示，展望后市，OPEC+仍将维持较大增产力 度，地缘局势整体也趋于缓和，且美国关税问题依然存在一定不确定性，预计下一轮成品油调价下调 的概率较大。 微信编辑 | 雨林 至此，国内成品油价格现已经历十五轮调整，呈现"六涨六跌三搁浅"格局。涨跌互抵后，年内汽、 柴油价格整体分别较2024年底下跌225元/吨、215元/吨。 由于上一轮成品油价刚经历了一波下调，每升92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油分别下调0.1元、0.1 元、0.11元，本次调价搁浅，意味着全国大多数地区车柴价格将继续维持7元-7.2元/升，92号汽油 零售价7.4元-7.5元/升的水平。 本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格窄幅波动。隆众资讯介绍，从供应端来看，石油输出国组织 OPEC+将在8月初举行新一轮会议，预计9月仍将维持较大增产力度，且9月可能提前完成220万桶/ 日的原定增 ...