Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Polyolefins - PP and PE show a supply contraction trend, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, leading to continuous inventory reduction. However, there is still overall inventory pressure. In the short term, pay attention to the support from inventory reduction. For PP in the medium term, consider short - selling when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [2] Urea - The core driver of the urea market is the resonance of export policies and international events. The secondary drivers are short - term supply contraction and cost reduction. The market is expected to stabilize after a decline, and it is necessary to track factors such as Indian tender results, Chinese quota policy changes, and port shipping progress [4] Crude Oil - Recent oil prices have weakened due to the decline in risk premiums, and the market is weighing the potential OPEC+ production increase plan, the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation, and the uncertainty of US tariff conflicts. The supply is expected to be loose, and the oil price is likely to fluctuate widely in the next week. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7] Chlor - alkali - For caustic soda, the short - term decline driver is insufficient, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly. In the medium term, there may be new production capacity, and the price upside is limited. For PVC, the short - term contradiction is not intensified, but the over - supply problem is prominent in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [12] Methanol - The methanol market shows a differentiation between ports and the inland. The upside and downside of methanol prices are limited, and interval trading is recommended [29] Styrene - The pure benzene market is weak, and the styrene market is stable. There is pressure on the supply - demand margin of styrene, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for styrene driven by raw material factors [34] Polyester - PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. PTA is supported by raw materials but has limited self - driving force. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, and the price is expected to be weak. Short - fiber has weak supply - demand, and bottle - chip supply - demand may improve [39] Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2601, PP2601, and PP2509 prices decreased, while L2509 increased slightly. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PP and PE supply contracted, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations. The overall inventory decreased [2] Urea - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The long - short positions of the top 20 traders and the long - short ratio also changed [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea decreased, and the plant and port inventories decreased. The production start - up rate decreased [4] Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different varieties and different months also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ may increase production in August, and the market is concerned about the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation and US tariff conflicts [7] Chlor - alkali - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed, and the spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [11] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC production increased, and the downstream start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC products changed. The inventory of caustic soda and PVC decreased or increased slightly [11][12] Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The basis and regional spreads also changed [29] - **Supply and Demand**: The methanol market is differentiated between ports and the inland. The port may face inventory pressure, while the inland may see reduced supply pressure in July [29] Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures changed, and the basis and spread between contracts also changed [31][32] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the styrene industry chain changed, and the inventory of some products increased [34] Polyester - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials, downstream polyester products, and related spreads in the polyester industry chain changed [39] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the polyester industry chain changed, and the supply - demand situation of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip is different [39]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is facing production losses despite low inventory levels, leading to expectations of increased production cuts in July and August [1][5]. Group 1: Production and Inventory - As of June 27, the average operating load of polyester plants was 89.80%, a slight decrease of 0.74 percentage points from May, indicating limited production cuts [1]. - Polyester product inventories are currently not high, which may support future production levels. For instance, as of the end of June, the inventory days for various products were: POY at 16.6 days, FDY at 30.2 days, short fiber at 10.8 days, bottle chips at 17.3 days, and chip at 10.2 days [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Conditions - As of June 27, theoretical losses for polyester products were significant: 211 CNY/ton for short fiber, 210 CNY/ton for chip, and 339 CNY/ton for bottle chips, while long fiber had a theoretical profit of 95 CNY/ton [3]. - The demand for fiber products is expected to decline as the weather heats up, making it difficult for short fiber and chip to recover from losses, while long fiber profits may also decrease [3]. - The supply of bottle chips is excessive, and the seasonal demand for soft drinks has already been priced in, leading to expectations that bottle chips will also struggle to recover from production losses [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the limited inventory pressure, the majority of polyester products are experiencing production losses, making it challenging for polyester plants to compete for profits within the supply chain, particularly against PX, which has strong de-inventory expectations [5]. - It is anticipated that polyester plants will increase production cuts, with operating loads potentially falling below 87% in July and August [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After sharp rises and falls in the market, oil prices are likely to oscillate within a narrow range, and there is room for a slight increase in the oil price center in the future, subject to further guidance from OPEC+ production policies [1] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market will be supported in the short term, but the supply from Iran and Russia is declining, and attention should be paid to the risk of significant oil price fluctuations [3] - The price of asphalt is affected by both the cost - side oil price and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate [3] - The supply of polyester products is expected to increase, demand support is insufficient, and prices are expected to return to a low - range consolidation, with PX and TA following the cost of crude oil [4] - The rubber market has weak fundamental contradictions, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4] - Methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as the expected resumption of Iranian production and the impact on port arrivals in Taicang [6] - The fundamentals of polyolefins have not improved significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the decline in crude oil prices [6] - PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate as the downstream enters the off - season, but the arbitrage and hedging space is gradually narrowing [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI August contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; Brent August contract closed up $0.05 to $67.73 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; SC2508 closed at 498 yuan per barrel, down 7.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.46% decrease. Russian Urals crude oil price has fallen below the $60 per - barrel limit [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3019 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2508 of low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 0.19% at 3693 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased week - on - week [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.2% at 3563 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt manufacturers increased by 0.7% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.42% at 4770 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.69% at 4293 yuan per ton. Iranian ethylene glycol plants are expected to resume production, and the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to return to a low - range consolidation [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 270 yuan per ton to 14040 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber rose 335 yuan per ton to 12145 yuan per ton. The global natural rubber production in May decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly [4] - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2765 yuan per ton. Iranian plants are expected to resume production, and methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China wire drawing is 7150 - 7250 yuan per ton. Due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in crude oil prices, polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **PVC**: The prices in East, North, and South China markets fluctuate. As the downstream enters the off - season, PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on June 26th and 25th, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price increases and decreases, and basis changes [9] 3.3 Market News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending June 20th, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels [12] - An impaired facility at the 14th - phase project of the South Pars Refinery in Iran's Bushehr Province has resumed operation [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [32] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of inter - period contract spreads for various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA, are provided [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report includes charts of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of production profits for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are presented [73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/25 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/23 | 2025/6/24 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 574.5 | 518. 6 | -55. 90 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,地缘局势缓和,原油价格跌幅明 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 837. 1 | 1007. 3 | 170. 23 | 显,利空PTA市场,PTA行情下跌。PTA现货货少利好仍 | | | | | | | 在,支撑现货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2005 | 1. 2673 | 0. 0668 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 899 | 859 | -40 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 2 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **chemical industry**, focusing on the **polyester supply chain**, **ethylene glycol**, **PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid)**, and **PX (Paraxylene)** markets, along with insights into **polypropylene** and **PVC** markets. Key Insights and Arguments Polyester Supply Chain - The polyester supply chain prices are influenced by multiple factors including costs, policies, and geopolitical issues. In April, prices dropped significantly due to cost declines, while in May, prices rebounded with tariff policy changes and oil price increases. In June, Middle Eastern conflicts led to rapid oil price increases, affecting upstream aromatic prices like PX and PTA, which subsequently raised downstream product prices significantly [1][3]. - Ethylene glycol's performance in the first half of 2025 was weak, primarily due to stable supply from coal-based production amid disrupted demand, leading to a relatively soft price trend [4]. - The price spread between PX and Brent crude oil was at a near five-year low in 2025, although it recovered slightly after tariff cancellations. Overall, PX valuations remain low due to weakened gasoline cracking margins and reduced demand for toluene and xylene [5]. PX and PTA Market Dynamics - The US demand for aromatics showed a decline in April and May, particularly in toluene and benzene imports from South Korea, leading to a seasonal demand drop in Asia [6]. - Polyester fiber operating rates decreased at the beginning of the year, but remained high during seasonal declines in PX and PTA operating rates, resulting in significant destocking effects in Q2 [7]. - PTA is expected to see increased production capacity in the second half of 2025, which may lead to inventory pressure, while PX has no new capacity planned for the year, relying on imports to maintain supply-demand balance [8]. Future Market Expectations - The PTA market is expected to face inventory accumulation due to increased production and weakened polyester demand, particularly from bottle-grade polyester [13]. - The PX market's performance is closely tied to oil prices and geopolitical stability. A potential easing of Middle Eastern tensions could lead to lower oil prices, impacting PX valuations negatively [9]. - The overall polyester industry is projected to see a decrease in operating rates by 3% to 4% in the second half of 2025, with significant reductions in bottle-grade polyester production anticipated [12]. Polypropylene and PVC Market Insights - The polypropylene market is currently in a bearish trend due to accelerated capacity expansion, weak demand, and macroeconomic uncertainties. Seasonal demand in the second half may provide some support, but supply pressures from new production remain a concern [2][23]. - The PVC market faces significant supply-demand pressures, with high levels of new capacity expected to come online, while domestic demand remains weak due to low construction activity [52][54]. Additional Important Points - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and macroeconomic policies, as these factors significantly influence market dynamics and pricing strategies across the chemical industry [20][61]. - The need for cautious optimism regarding PX imports and the overall supply-demand balance was emphasized, particularly in light of potential production disruptions and the impact of external market conditions [22][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the chemical industry, particularly in the polyester, polypropylene, and PVC markets.

聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 目录 PX&P TA 本周PX期货价格震荡偏强，PX浮动价&基差月差走强,PX利润扩大。本周镇海炼化、金陵石化降负，盛虹炼化小幅 提负，PX开工率变动不大。7月初，威廉化学200万吨/年、天津石化39万吨有检修计划，福佳大化70万PX检修推 迟到9月，中金石化6月中旬计划外降负至8成运行，原计划6月中旬重启的沙特Petro Rabigh134万吨PX装置推迟 到7月中下旬重启，伊朗石化142万吨PX装置因战争因素停车，韩国GS一套40万吨PX装置目前正在重启，亚洲PX 开工率近期回落，PX流通货源偏紧。 PTA本周供减需增，社会库存下降，基差月差走强，加工费压缩。供应方面，逸盛新材料一套360万吨PTA上周末 降负，恒力一套220万吨PTA停车，嘉兴石化150万吨PTA重启，PTA开工率下降，下游聚酯开工回升，聚酯工厂库 存下降，聚酯利润继续压缩。PTA流通现货依旧偏紧，成本端油价和PX维持偏强格局，PT ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 伊以冲突可能走向停火，油价应声暴跌，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘 | | | | 下跌 5.33 美元至 68.51 美元/桶，跌幅 7.22%。布伦特 8 月合约收 | | | | 盘下跌 5.53 美元至 71.48 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%。SC2508 以 537.7 | | | | 元/桶收盘，下跌 32.2 元/桶，跌幅为 5.65%。伊朗最高国家安全委 | | | | 员会秘书处 23 日发表声明说，为回应美国对伊朗核设施的侵略行 | | | | 径，伊朗当天对美国驻卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地进行了导弹打击。 | | | | 特朗普在美国东部时间当天 18 时 02 分，北京时间 24 日 6 时 02 | | | | 分，发表的帖文中说，停火将在大约 6 小时后正式生效，届时以 | | | 原油 | 伊双方将完成各自正在进行的"最后任务"。根据协议，停火将分 | 震荡 | | | 阶段实施：伊朗先开始停火，到第 12 个小时 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/24 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/20 | 2025/6/23 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 566. 6 | 574.5 | 7.90 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,原油高开低走,PTA行情冲高回落 | | | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 860. 5 | 837. 1 | -23.41 | 。午后传闻华东某PX企业可能减少7月长约供应量,暂 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2090 | 1. 2005 | -0. 0085 | 无官宣消息,午后PTA行情一度反弹。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 896 | 899 | 3 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 250 | 253 | 3 ...

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY 2025/6/23 元/吨 9200.00 9125.00 0.82% | | | | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY 2025/6/23 元/吨 7500.00 7450.00 0.67% | | | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D 2025/6/23 元/吨 7450.00 7350.00 1.36% | | | | 下 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/6/23 元/吨 7450.00 7350.00 1.36% | | | | 游 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/6/23 元/吨 6890.00 6890.00 0.00% | | | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 2025/6/23 元/吨 6140.00 6120.00 0.33% | | | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 2025/6/23 元/吨 6260.00 6260.00 0.00% | | | | 装置信息 西北一套120万吨PTA装置计划5月15日至20日之间重启。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 国际原 ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 6月20日 | 张跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 6月20日 | 6月23日 | 6月23日 | 胀跌 | 单位 | 张跌幅 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -7.2% | 77.01 | -5.53 | POY150/48价格 | 60 | 布伦特原油(8月) | 71.48 | 7225 | 7165 | 0.8% | 美元/桶 | -7.2% | 50 | WTI原油(8月) | 68.51 | 73.84 | -5.33 | FDY150/96价格 | 7515 | 0.7% | 7465 | | | 40 | CFR日本石脑油 | 646 | -4 | -0.6% | D ...