1月30日，锂矿板块大跌，截至14:40，锂矿板块跌超6%，西部矿业（601168）、中矿资源 （002738）、天齐锂业（002466）等跌超7%。 业内人士表示，碳酸锂价格的回暖，有望带动拥有自有矿和盐湖的生产企业业绩修复。 其中，一家不愿具名的企业负责人对记者表示："公司产品供不应求，产销正常，现在没有什么库存。" 上海钢联（300226）数据显示，2025年下半年以来，电池级碳酸锂价格持续上涨，从7万元/吨左右一度 涨至17万元/吨左右。 对此，赣锋锂业（002460）、雅化集团（002497）等多家锂矿企业回应中国证券报.中证金牛座记者 称，公司生产经营一切正常。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2026年1月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为22217吨，环比减少1.71%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96590吨，环比增加0.73%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18868 吨，环比增加3.35%。 供给端，2025年12月碳酸锂产量为99200实物吨，预测下月产量为97970实物吨，环比减少1.23%,2025年12月 碳酸锂进口量为23989实物吨，预测下月进口量为22500实物吨，环比减少6.20%。需求端，预计下月需求有所 强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所减少，低于历史同期平均水平，供需格局转 ...

业内人士表示，碳酸锂价格的回暖，有望带动拥有自有矿和盐湖的生产企业业绩修复。 1月30日，锂矿板块大跌，截至14:40，锂矿板块跌超6%，西部矿业、中矿资源、天齐锂业等跌超7%。 对此，赣锋锂业、雅化集团等多家锂矿企业回应中国证券报·中证金牛座记者称，公司生产经营一切正 常。 其中，一家不愿具名的企业负责人对记者表示："公司产品供不应求，产销正常，现在没有什么库存。" 上海钢联数据显示，2025年下半年以来，电池级碳酸锂价格持续上涨，从7万元/吨左右一度涨至17万 元/吨左右。 ...

周四晚间，美股开盘后整体下挫，引发市场恐慌情绪，导致市场流动性收紧，叠加近两日贵金属及有色 市场涨势过猛、累积了大量风险，贵金属、有色金属集体回踩，周五开盘后跌势延续。碳酸锂盘中触及 跌停，随后小幅回升，但日内跌幅仍在9%附近。近期因价格波动较大，监管降温政策频频出台，多头 资金部分离场。与此同时，现货价格同步走弱，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌4000元/吨至168000元/吨，工 业级碳酸锂平均价下跌4000元/吨至164500元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下跌2700元/吨至163000 元/吨。后续需密切跟踪市场情绪及政策动态。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 基本面来看，供给端，周度产量环比减少648吨至21569吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比减少670吨至13244吨， 锂云母产量环比减少50吨至2832吨，盐湖提锂环比增加90吨至3205吨，回收料提锂环比减少18吨至2288 吨。库存端，周度碳酸锂社会库存环比减1414吨至107482吨，其中下游环比增加3007吨至40599吨，其 他环节减少3590吨至47 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.96% closing at 4117 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.66%. In contrast, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.27% [1] - The total market turnover was 2.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of 397 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 2900 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The CPO concept stocks rose significantly, with companies like Hengtong Optic-Electric and Yangtze Optical Fibre achieving daily price limits [1] - The genetically modified and grain sectors also performed well, with Dunhuang Seed Industry and Nongfa Seed Industry hitting daily price limits [1] - The paper and printing sector saw gains, with Songyang Resources reaching its daily price limit [1] - The communication module, aquaculture, and communication equipment sectors had notable increases [1] Declining Sectors - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced sharp declines, with nearly twenty stocks including Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold hitting daily price limits [1] - Lithium mining stocks fell, with Xibu Mining reaching its daily price limit [1] - The previously strong-performing liquor and beer stocks saw widespread declines, with Guyue Longshan leading the drop [1] - The automotive dismantling, oil and gas service, and cultivated diamond sectors had significant losses [1] Top Gainers and Fund Flows - The top gainers included the communication equipment sector with a rise of 2.92%, followed by the restaurant and tourism sector at 1.48% [2] - Net capital inflows were observed in the agriculture sector, which increased by 2.16% [2] - The five-day performance showed the paper sector with a rise of 1.599% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Bank of America Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries, indicating that the company is well-prepared for higher lithium price forecasts and improved profit margin prospects [1] - The overall industry outlook predicts that lithium prices will reach RMB 126,000 per ton by 2026, with prices expected to continue rising in the first half of the year due to low inventory levels [1] - The target price set for Tianqi Lithium is HKD 70 [1] Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium has issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit between RMB 369 million and RMB 553 million for the previous year, which suggests a fourth-quarter net profit ranging from RMB 189 million to RMB 373 million [1] - The anticipated profit improvement aligns with the upward trend in lithium and spodumene prices within the industry [1]

天齐锂业发盈喜，预计去年纯利介乎3.69亿至5.53亿元人民币，意味着第四季纯利介乎1.89亿至3.73亿元 人民币，按季有所改善，并与锂和锂辉石价格回升的行业趋势一致。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，对天齐锂业(09696)维持"买入"评级，认为公司已为更高锂价 预测及利润率改善前景做好准备。从行业整体来看，该行预计锂价在2026年达每吨12.6万元人民币，并 因库存偏低而在上半年持续上涨。该行予公司目标价70港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.19%, while the ChiNext Index rebounded, showcasing volatility in trading [1] Market Performance - The three major indices showed varied results, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at a loss of 1.19% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.96%, while the ChiNext Index gained 0.8% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.93 trillion yuan, a decrease of 83.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The computing hardware sector saw a significant surge, with Tianfu Communication rising over 10% and Changfei Optical Fiber hitting the daily limit, both achieving historical highs [1] - The AI application sector also experienced gains, with Earsound Co. and Yueliang Media both hitting the daily limit [1] - The film and television sector was active, with Hengdian Film and Television achieving two consecutive daily limits [1] - The agricultural sector showed repeated activity, with Nongfa Seed Industry achieving two daily limits in three days [1] Declining Sectors - The non-ferrous metal sector faced a collective decline, particularly in precious metals, with stocks like Xiaocheng Technology and Chifeng Gold hitting the daily limit down [1] - The lithium mining sector also saw significant drops, with Jinyuan Co. hitting the daily limit down [1]

星展发表研报指，赣锋锂业预计2025年度净利润将介乎11亿至16.5亿元。该行预期，在江西锂矿获得采 矿许可前，锂价仍将维持高位，相信锂行业的盈利能力将于2026年触底反弹。该行维持赣锋锂业"买 入"评级，以预测市盈率40倍及H股较A股折让两成计，将H股目标价由39港元大幅上调至83港元，A股 目标价则由45元上调至92元。 ...

下跌，截至发稿，跌8.98%，报61.8港元，成交额5.47亿港元。 消息面上，赣锋锂业近日发布年度业绩预告，预计全年实现净利润11亿元至16.5亿元，同比增长153.04%至179.56%，去年同期亏损20.74亿元。值得注意的 是，公司持有的Pilbara Minerals股票价格变动带来的公允价值变动收益贡献约10.3亿元利润，期内扣非净利润亏损3亿元至6亿元。 东吴证券发布研报称，25Q4业绩亮眼，扣非净利略好于预期；25Q4锂盐出货环比持平，涨价贡献弹性。展望26年，该行预计公司锂盐出货量21万吨，同比 +25%，资源自供规模13-14万吨，若按照碳酸锂价格15万元/吨，对应可贡献90亿元+利润。 编辑/doris ...