Core Viewpoint - The lithium price decline has slowed down in Q1 2025, leading to a slight recovery in overseas lithium mine prices and improved operations for salt lake companies, but the industry is facing significant losses as prices drop to 60,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 1: Lithium Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, overseas lithium mine production decreased, with a total output of 1.01 million tons, a decline of over 10% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Major lithium mines saw a slight price recovery in Q1 2025, with average prices rising above $800/ton, driven by strong demand in the Chinese market [2] - The price of lithium concentrate has entered a new downward trend since Q2 2025, dropping below $650/ton by the end of May, leading to increased operational pressure and losses for overseas lithium miners [3] Group 2: South American Salt Lake Operations - In Q1 2025, lithium sales for ALB, SQM, and LAAC/Ganfeng Lithium were 44,000 tons, 55,000 tons, and 7,200 tons respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6%, 26%, and 60% [4] - ALB and SQM showed improved operational performance in Q1 2025 due to reduced price declines and increased contributions from other business segments [4] - South American salt lake lithium companies are continuing their expansion plans, with LAR and Ganfeng Lithium aiming to increase their lithium production capacity in Argentina to over 200,000 tons [4] Group 3: Supply and Price Outlook - As of the end of May 2025, domestic lithium carbonate prices fell to 60,000 yuan/ton, further expanding industry losses and strengthening expectations for mine production cuts and price rebounds [5] - The company expects lithium prices to stabilize and rebound at current levels, but long-term prices are anticipated to remain at the bottom due to oversupply and cost-cutting efforts by lithium resource companies [5] - The adjusted forecast for lithium prices in the second half of 2025 is set at 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton [5]

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has experienced a significant decline, dropping to a recent low of 59,500 yuan/ton, which is a 90% decrease from the peak of 600,000 yuan/ton in 2022, raising concerns about the sustainability of lithium salt enterprises and the entire lithium battery supply chain [1][2]. Price Trends - In 2023, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China fell to 103,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year, an 80.38% decrease from the average of 525,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year [2]. - The price trend for 2024 is expected to show a "rise then fall" pattern, with a 30% increase in early months due to environmental issues and inventory replenishment, followed by a decline due to supply-demand imbalance [2][6]. - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 63,100 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade was 61,500 yuan/ton, indicating a continued downward trend [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with global lithium salt production increasing by 23% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while the demand for power batteries is showing signs of slowing down [6][7]. - As of May 2025, total social inventory of lithium carbonate reached 131,700 tons, with salt plant inventory increasing by 8.8%, indicating prolonged destocking cycles [6][7]. Cost Structure Changes - The production costs for lithium salt enterprises are decreasing, with salt lake enterprises maintaining costs around 40,000 yuan/ton, while African mines range from 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Companies are transitioning to lower-cost production methods, with some salt lake projects expected to achieve production costs as low as 32,000 yuan/ton [8]. Market Outlook - The current market sentiment remains pessimistic due to the downward spiral of salt and mineral prices, with many lithium salt enterprises struggling to maintain profitability [3][5]. - Analysts suggest that the market may only return to balance after the elimination of loss-making capacities, indicating that prices are likely to remain weak in the short term [8].

Group 1 - As of May 29, 2023, seven steel mills in Shandong have confirmed a total annual production target of 55.33 million tons, a decrease of approximately 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a planned reduction in crude steel production of 4%-10% for 2025 [1] - According to Mysteel, as of May 29, the production of rebar has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with social inventories declining for the twelfth consecutive week, while market demand has increased slightly to 2.4868 million tons, up by 15,500 tons or 0.63% from the previous week [1] - A stainless steel plant in South China plans to halt production for approximately 25 days starting July 5 due to ultra-low emission renovations, which is expected to impact stainless steel output by 80,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The Malaysian government plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground transportation vehicles from B10 to B20 [1] - As of May 25, 2023, Canadian canola exports decreased by 10.36% week-on-week to 160,100 tons, while commercial inventories stood at 919,900 tons [1] - As of May 29, the total inventory of float glass in China was 67.662 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 107,000 boxes week-on-week, while the total inventory of soda ash was 1.6243 million tons, down by 52,500 tons [2] Group 3 - OPEC+ member countries are expected to decide on increasing oil production at a meeting on May 31, although the potential scale of the increase remains unclear [2] - A major aluminum supplier has lowered its aluminum premium for shipments to Japan in Q3 to $145 per ton, down by 20% from Q2's $182 per ton [3]

-广告- 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源： 长江有色金属网 5月26日，紫金矿业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"紫金矿业"）发布公告称， 紫金矿业拟将其控股子公司 紫金黄金国际有限公司（以下简称"紫金黄金国际"）分拆至香港联交所主板上市。 发行方式为香港公开发 行及国际配售。本次分拆上市发行的股份数量不超过发行后紫金黄金国际总股本的15%（超额配售权行使 前）。 本次分拆实施前，紫金矿业拟将下属多座境外黄金矿山资产重组整合至紫金黄金国际旗下，相关重组工作 目前尚在推进过程中。 紫金矿业拟分拆业务以紫金黄金国际为主体，包括紫金矿业旗下位于南美洲、中亚地区、非洲和大洋洲等 地的境外黄金矿山资产，相关资产依托当地丰富的黄金资源优势，独立开展黄金相关的勘探、开采、生 产、销售等活动。 紫金矿业表示，此次分拆完成后，紫金黄金国际将进一步深耕境外市场业务，持续推进全球黄金资源开 发，与上市公司及下属其他企业（除拟分拆主体及资产外）保持相对较高的独立性。分拆不会对上市公司 的主营业务构成实质影响。 公开信息显示，紫金黄金国际成立于2007年，专注于全球优质黄 ...

Core Points - Chile's President Boric announced the "National Lithium Strategy" on April 20, 2023, which led to negotiations between Codelco and SQM authorized by Corfo on May 24, 2023 [1] - Codelco disclosed that discussions with Morgan Stanley regarding an "underground agreement" began 21 days prior to the announcement of the lithium strategy, with Morgan serving as a financial advisor during negotiations with SQM [1] - A financial advisory agreement between Codelco and Morgan Stanley was signed on March 30, 2023, prior to the announcement of the lithium strategy, with Morgan's commission set at 0.4% of the net profits from the Codelco-SQM collaboration [1] Company Developments - Codelco's president submitted a copy of the agreement with Morgan Stanley to the Chilean House of Representatives, revealing undisclosed terms, including a provision that no base commission would be paid until a final agreement with SQM was signed [1] - On May 15, 2023, Codelco announced the establishment of two subsidiaries, Codelco de Chile SpA and MineralTararSpA [1] - Codelco sent a letter to Corfo on May 22, 2023, agreeing to enter into cooperation negotiations with SQM [1]

在激烈市场博弈与竞争中，由于供需关系转换带来的 "周期熊" 还在持续深刻影响全球锂矿江 湖。 最新数据显示，碳酸锂期货主力合约LC2507已经连续三天 （5月26日、27日、28日） 盘中跌破6 万元/吨关口，最低下探至5.95万元/吨，尽管随后小幅回升，报收6.04万元/吨，仍较2024年年末 下跌了22.23%。 在新能源强势崛起的背景下，作为国家级战略资源，锂价的每一轮剧烈波动，都会引发一轮市场 关注与争议风暴。回顾过去十年锂价的演进历程，期间历经多轮 "牛熊" 周期的洗礼，每一轮周 期变化都对产业格局产生了深远影响。 众所周知，2023年以来锂产业供需结构已经发生了根本性转变，具体而言，资金大举进入上游加 速产能释放的情况下，下游的需求却并未同步快速增长，导致整个锂电产业链都陷入产能过剩状 态，进而行业内卷加剧，新能源行业面临残酷洗牌，所以近乎一致的预期导致市场对锂价的下跌 毫无抵抗力。 尤其2024年是全球锂资源集中投产的重要一年，随着前期各国在锂资源开发和建设方面的布局逐 步完善，各主要矿区的新项目陆续投产并释放产能。然而，受锂价持续下跌的影响，从年中开 始，不少项目相继传出停产检修的消息，行业过 ...

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 28, 2025 12:00 PM ET Company Participants Isabel Bendeck - Investor RelationsRicardo Ramos - CEO & General ManagerBen Isaacson - Managing Director - Equity ResearchGerardo Illanes - VP - Services & FinanceJoel Jackson - Managing DirectorFelipe Smith - Senior Commercial VP - LithiumCarlos Díaz Ortiz - General Manager - Lithium Potassium DivisionAndres Fontannaz - Commercial Vice PresidentAlejandro Demichelis - Managing Director - Equity Resea ...

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 28, 2025 12:00 PM ET Company Participants Isabel Bendeck - Investor RelationsRicardo Ramos - CEO & General ManagerBen Isaacson - Managing Director - Equity ResearchGerardo Illanes - VP - Services & FinanceJoel Jackson - Managing DirectorFelipe Smith - Senior Commercial VP - LithiumCarlos Díaz Ortiz - General Manager - Lithium Potassium DivisionAndres Fontannaz - Commercial Vice PresidentAlejandro Demichelis - Managing Director - Equity Resea ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the ongoing decline in lithium prices, SQM, one of the largest lithium producers globally, has achieved record lithium sales in the first quarter due to low-cost expansion and strong demand from the electric vehicle market, particularly in China, as well as new demand from energy storage systems [1] Group 1 - SQM reported a 27% year-over-year increase in lithium sales for the three months ending in March [1] - The growth in lithium sales is attributed to the robust expansion of the electric vehicle market and emerging needs from energy storage systems [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年5月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 上周碳酸锂产量为16093吨 环比减少3 高于历史同期平均水平 22% ， ， 。 . , | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为82550吨 环比减少4 62% 上周三元材料 ， ， . , | | | | 样本企业库存为15176吨 环比减少0 07% ， . 。 | | 1 | 基本面: | 成本端来看 外购锂辉石精矿成本为66208元/吨 日环比减少0 15% 生产所得为 ， ， . , 中性 | | 、 | | 。 5065元/吨 有所亏损 外购锂云母成本为66952元/吨 日环比持平 ...