Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in SF Holding due to its valuation, operational resilience, and shareholder returns [2] - The report also recommends the aviation sector, specifically Air China and China Southern Airlines, due to expected profit elasticity from supply-demand optimization [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry saw a year-on-year growth of 15.8% in business volume in June, with SF Holding leading the growth [2] - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. being recommended [3] - The aviation sector is experiencing robust growth, with Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines leading in RPK growth [4] - The shipping sector is facing challenges, with the CCFI index showing a significant year-on-year decline of 40.2% [5] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index increased by 0.2% from July 12 to July 18, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.8% [1][13] Express Delivery - In June, the national express delivery business volume reached 168.7 billion pieces, with a revenue of 126.32 billion yuan, marking a 9.0% year-on-year increase [2] - The average revenue per delivery decreased by 5.9% to 7.49 yuan [2] Logistics - The chemical products price index (CCPI) is at 4021 points, down 14.3% year-on-year [3] - Hai Chen Co. is recommended due to its strategic partnerships and improved demand in consumer electronics [3] Aviation - The average daily flights in China increased by 3.29% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 1.89% [4] - RPK growth for major airlines shows significant increases, with Spring Airlines at +12% compared to 2024 [4] Shipping - The CCFI index is at 1303.54 points, down 0.8% week-on-week and down 40.2% year-on-year [5] - The BDI index increased by 29.9% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in dry bulk shipping [5][38] Road and Rail - The national highway freight traffic increased by 0.19% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 0.82% [6][81] - The railway passenger turnover increased by 3.61% year-on-year, while freight turnover showed a slight decline [79]

Core Viewpoint - The West Sand Islands are becoming a significant destination for educational tourism in China, with a focus on marine culture and ecological protection, aiming to establish a new benchmark for marine tourism in the country [1][3]. Group 1: Development of West Sand Islands Ecological Tourism - The West Sand Islands ecological tourism route has created a multi-layered product matrix to meet diverse tourist needs, having successfully completed 183 voyages and welcomed 58,563 visitors since its inaugural sailing in December 2023 [3]. - The cruise ship Xianglong Island has traveled a total of 65,100 nautical miles, becoming a "national business card" for China's marine tourism, integrating ecological protection, national defense education, and cultural experiences [3][8]. Group 2: Educational and Cultural Activities - The recent four-day educational tour included activities such as a sailing reading club themed "Beautiful China in Books, Charming Xisha in My Eyes," which involved sharing stories of South China Sea culture and national defense [5][6]. - Participants engaged in hands-on activities like planting coconut seedlings and raising the national flag on the islands, emphasizing patriotism and environmental awareness [6][9]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Strategic Goals - The initiative aims to transform the West Sand Islands from a niche exploration destination into a widely shared marine cultural feast, integrating marine science education, ecological research, and historical cultural experiences [8][9]. - The West Sand Islands educational tourism is recognized for its marine characteristics, with plans to elevate the site to a national-level educational demonstration point, contributing to the "Marine Power" strategic goals [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - China Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) plans to issue shares to specific investors, pending approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [1][2] Group 1: Share Issuance Details - The total amount to be raised from the share issuance is not more than 800 million yuan (approximately 800 million) [1] - The funds will be used for constructing 6 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), 2 LNG carriers, and 3 Aframax oil tankers [1] - The shares will be issued as domestic RMB ordinary shares (A-shares) with a par value of 1.00 yuan per share [2] Group 2: Investors and Subscription - The issuance will target up to 35 specific investors, including the indirect controlling shareholder, China Cosco Shipping Group [2][3] - China Cosco Shipping Group commits to subscribe for 50% of the shares issued [3] - All investors will subscribe in cash, and the shares will be issued through a competitive bidding process [3] Group 3: Regulatory and Compliance - The issuance is subject to approval from the CSRC, and the timeline for approval remains uncertain [1] - The shares subscribed by China Cosco Shipping Group will be restricted from transfer for 18 months post-issuance, while other investors will have a 6-month restriction [4] - The controlling shareholder structure will remain unchanged after the issuance [4] Group 4: Underwriting and Sponsorship - The lead underwriter for this issuance is Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. [5]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Zhejiang Merchants Huijin Dividend Selected Mixed Fund A (021859) reported a profit of 256,200 yuan in Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0197 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate was 1.96%, and the fund size reached 12.831 million yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [3][15]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 1.043 yuan. The fund manager, Zhou Wenchao, oversees seven funds, with the Zhejiang Merchants Zhijiang Phoenix ETF showing the highest one-year cumulative net value growth rate of 24.37%, while the Zhejiang Merchants Huijin Transformation Upgrade A had the lowest at 3.57% [3]. - The fund's net value growth rate over the past three months was 4.19%, ranking 573 out of 615 comparable funds, and over the past six months, it was 5.38%, ranking 482 out of 615 [4]. Risk and Strategy - The fund's management indicated that the global economy and capital markets are in a state of high uncertainty, predicting increased market volatility in Q3. They plan to reduce portfolio elasticity, realize some short-term excess returns, and increase low-position layouts. Maintaining a certain cash ratio is deemed necessary to capitalize on potential market downturns [3]. Fund Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception is 0.0726, and the maximum drawdown since inception is 3.68%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q2 2025 at 3.4% [9][11]. - The average stock position since inception is 50.2%, compared to the industry average of 83.17%. The fund reached a maximum position of 69.46% at the end of H1 2025 and a minimum of 19.48% at the end of 2024 [14]. Holdings - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with the top ten stocks as of the end of Q2 2025 including: Yangtze Power, Agricultural Bank, Pinggao Electric, Nanjing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Ping An Bank, China Mobile, China State Construction, China Merchants Energy, and Nanjing Steel [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth in express delivery business volume, with a 19.3% increase in the first half of 2025, and anticipates a double-digit growth for the entire year [6][20] - The shipping sector shows improved market conditions, particularly in the dry bulk market, with rising freight rates and a positive outlook due to extended tariff grace periods between the US and China [6][16] - Infrastructure assets in Hong Kong are expected to see valuation improvements, with stable performance from leading highway assets and a focus on port assets as stable cash flow investments [6][18] - The aviation sector is experiencing a steady increase in passenger volume, although revenue performance remains under pressure due to competitive pricing [6][21] Summary by Sections Shipping - The dry bulk market is experiencing a rebound, with significant increases in freight rates for Panamax vessels and improved cargo volumes from Australia and South America [6][15] - The container shipping sector is facing mixed results, with some routes seeing rate declines while others remain stable due to port congestion [6][11] - The oil shipping market is expected to improve in Q3, with OPEC+ increasing production [6][14] Infrastructure - As of May 2025, national port cargo throughput reached 1.59 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, while container throughput grew by 5.4% [6][51] - The CR450 high-speed train is set to enter commercial operation by the end of 2026, promising enhanced operational efficiency and energy savings [6][17] - The report suggests that leading highway assets are entering a favorable investment zone with stable dividend expectations [6][18] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to grow over 20% in 2024, with a 15.8% year-on-year increase in June 2025 [6][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes to combat excessive price competition in the industry [6][20] - Major players in the express delivery market are showing varied growth rates, with SF Express leading in volume growth [6][19] Aviation - Passenger volume in civil aviation increased by 1.8% week-on-week and 3% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [6][21] - The report notes that while passenger numbers are rising, revenue performance is pressured by competitive pricing strategies [6][21] - Recommendations include focusing on major airlines like China Southern Airlines and Air China for potential investment opportunities [6][21] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing fluctuations in cross-border air freight prices, with a 4% week-on-week increase in the TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index [6][23] - The report highlights the potential for significant non-operating income for China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group in 2025 [6][23]

Core Insights - The A-share market is entering a critical period for the disclosure of mid-year reports, with investors focusing on the operating performance of listed companies in the first half of 2025 to identify new investment opportunities [1][2] - As of July 18, 2025, 26 companies have released their performance reports, showing a mixed overall trend with 17 companies reporting year-on-year revenue growth and 14 companies showing an increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][4] Company Performance - Suqian Agricultural Development (苏垦农发) reported a revenue of 4.588 billion yuan, a decline of 9.26% year-on-year, and a net profit of 213 million yuan, down 27.72% [2] - Great Wall Motors (长城汽车) achieved a revenue of 92.367 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.03%, but its net profit fell by 10.21% to 6.337 billion yuan [2] - Sumec Corporation (苏美达) reported a revenue of 55.101 billion yuan, down 1.52%, while its net profit increased by 12.62% to 646 million yuan [3] - Hangzhou Bank (杭州银行) achieved a revenue of 20.093 billion yuan, up 3.89%, and a net profit of 11.662 billion yuan, up 16.67% [3] - Star Power (明星电力) reported a revenue of 1.524 billion yuan, a growth of 13.70%, but its net profit decreased by 13.44% to 73.415 million yuan [3] Notable Performers - China Merchants Energy (中远海特) had the highest revenue growth among the 26 companies, with a revenue of approximately 10.775 billion yuan, up 44.05% year-on-year [4] - Beiding Co., Ltd. (北鼎股份) reported a net profit of 55.828 million yuan, a significant increase of 74.92% [5] - Tian De Yu (天德钰) reported a net profit of 152 million yuan, up 50.89% [6] - Siyuan Electric (思源电气) achieved a net profit of 1.293 billion yuan, an increase of 45.71% [6] - Huazheng Securities (华安证券) reported a net profit of 1.035 billion yuan, up 44.94% [6] Market Outlook - Over 1,500 companies in the A-share market have released performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with nearly 700 companies expecting positive results [7] - Among these, 239 companies anticipate a doubling of their performance, and 26 companies expect growth exceeding tenfold [7] - Notable companies with exceptional performance expectations include Huayin Power (华银电力), Xian Da Co., Ltd. (先达股份), and Northern Rare Earth (北方稀土), with projected net profit increases of over 20 times [7] Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to consider not only financial metrics such as net profit, gross margin, and operating cash flow but also factors like R&D investment, market share, and industry position when evaluating mid-term performance [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping and transportation industry, recommending specific companies such as China Merchants Energy and China Shipbuilding [4][5]. Core Insights - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has reached a new high for the year, driven by rising shipping asset values and the impact of EU sanctions on Russian oil [4]. - The report highlights the performance of various sectors within the transportation industry, noting a significant increase in oil tanker rates and a recovery in shipping prices [5]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the logistics and express delivery sectors, suggesting potential for market share consolidation among leading companies [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - The report indicates that the EU's sanctions on Russian oil are creating upward pressure on tanker rates, with VLCC rates increasing by 16% to $30,978 per day [5]. - The BDI increased by 23.4% week-on-week, closing at 2,052 points, supported by strong Capesize rates [5]. - Recommendations include China Merchants Energy and China Shipbuilding, with a focus on companies like GNK, GOGL, and SBLK [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing high growth, with companies like SF Holding and SF Express being recommended for their potential to optimize logistics costs [4]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the express delivery market, driven by policy support and demand recovery [4]. Aviation and Airports - The aviation market is expected to stabilize as supply chain recovery continues, with recommendations for airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4]. - The report notes that if domestic airline ticket prices recover, it could further support airline profitability [4]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with rail freight increasing by 1.47% week-on-week [6]. - The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around macroeconomic insights, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve's independence, currency exchange rates, and the implications of tariffs on effective tax rates in the United States. Additionally, there are insights into the Taiwanese market and the Australian economy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve Independence**: - Undermining the Federal Reserve's independence is viewed negatively for the dollar, leading to a decrease in USDJPY and lower front-end US yields, while back-end yields are higher, indicating a steepening yield curve. The impact on equities remains uncertain, although the S&P initially fell [3][4][6]. 2. **Effective Tax Rate (ETR) Changes**: - Tariffs implemented to date have raised the US effective tax rate by 9 percentage points, with an expected further increase of approximately 8 percentage points by early 2027. This is attributed to proposed higher tariffs on a significant portion of US imports [4][10][12]. 3. **Taiwanese Market Dynamics**: - There is still USD 5 billion in dividends to be paid to foreign investors in July, indicating continued foreign investment interest. Despite the passing of TSMC dividends, there remains substantial buying interest in the market [20][21][25]. 4. **Australian Economic Outlook**: - Recent employment data showed an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, which is higher than expected. This suggests a weakening labor market, leading to expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBA in the upcoming meeting [28][31][32]. 5. **Dollar Index (DXY) Trends**: - The DXY is currently testing the 50-day moving average, which has previously capped the index. A close above this level could lead to a bullish outlook for the dollar until the summer holiday lull is over [6][7]. 6. **Market Sentiment and Future Projections**: - The market is sensitive to upcoming economic data releases and speeches from key figures, which could influence monetary policy decisions. There is a growing concern about the sustainability of the current economic recovery and the potential need for further easing [33][34]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for a deeper easing cycle in Australia is heightened by the RBA's cautious approach, which may lead to more significant rate cuts if economic conditions do not improve [28][32]. - The Japanese political landscape is also under scrutiny, with concerns about the ruling coalition's ability to maintain a majority in the upcoming elections, which could impact fiscal policy and market stability [37][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and its implications for various markets.

Group 1 - The net asset of the Guotai Junan Asset Management's Guotai Junan CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index Fund (QDII) A reached 0.08 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025, representing a 35.55% increase compared to the previous period [1] - The fund manager, Zhang Jing, has a background in finance with a bachelor's degree from the University of International Business and Economics and an MBA from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has extensive international experience in asset management since 2006 [1] - The fund's recent performance shows a 16.68% return over the last three months and a 17.16% return over the past year, with a cumulative return of 17.16% since inception [2] Group 2 - The fund's top ten stock holdings include China COSCO Shipping, Yancoal Australia, and China Petroleum, with a total holding percentage of 46.43% [2] - The Shanghai Guotai Junan Securities Asset Management Company was established in August 2010, focusing on capital market services, with a registered capital of 2 billion yuan [2]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, increasing by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes increasing by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]