Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on natural rubber is oscillating weakly. Southeast Asia is in the high-yielding period of rubber tapping, with an increase in supply. However, the temperature in northeastern Thailand is dropping, and factories are replenishing their inventories periodically, so overseas raw material prices may remain high. It is estimated that rubber tapping in northeastern Thailand will gradually stop at the end of January, and about a month later in the south. In the short term, the accumulation rate of natural rubber spot inventory may slow down. With the correction in the commodity market, rubber prices are expected to continue to decline, but the downward adjustment is also expected to be limited [100][101]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - Border conflicts and floods in Thailand have caused a rubber production reduction of over 44,000 tons and economic losses exceeding 2.995 billion Thai baht [5]. - From January to November 2025, Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 4% year-on-year, and exports to China increased by 119% [6]. - From 2014 - 2024, Sri Lanka's rubber production and planting area decreased by an average annual of 7% and 6.3% respectively. If the trend continues, the rubber industry may decline [7]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber futures rose, with RU leading the increase. On January 9, 2026, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 16,030 yuan/ton, 13,020 yuan/ton, 183.80 cents/kg, and 345.60 yen/kg respectively, with month-on-month increases of 2.72%, 2.32%, 2.17%, and 0.99% [10][12]. Basis and Spread - On January 9, 2026, the basis of whole milk - RU05 was -330 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 7.04% and a year-on-year increase of 56.58%; the 05 - 09 spread was 25 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 58.33% and a year-on-year increase of 115.63% [16]. - RU - NR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads increased, while RU - BR spread decreased [17]. - This week, the import rubber market offer rose. The whole milk - Thai mixed rubber spread and 3L - Thai mixed rubber spread expanded [23]. Substitute Prices - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber supply remained at a high level, and the market price increased significantly due to cost factors. The raw material cost continued to rise, compressing production profits, and major suppliers continuously raised prices [28]. Capital Movements - The virtual - to - physical ratio and settled funds of both RU and NR increased. On January 9, 2026, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 22.71 and 20.92 respectively, with month-on-month increases of 12.62% and 4.92%; the settled funds were 6.892 billion yuan and 2.852 billion yuan respectively, with month-on-month increases of 20.73% and 8.13% [31][34]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the rainy season in the south is approaching the end with decreasing rainfall, while the rainy season in the northeast has passed, but the rainfall is higher than the same period [37]. - The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [39]. - Domestic rubber - tapping is approaching the end, and overseas factory restocking demand supports rising raw material prices [41]. - The water - to - cup price spread in Thailand has decreased, and the spread of Hainan rubber latex into concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories has remained stable [45]. - Thailand's rubber processing profits have generally recovered [48]. - Hainan's delivery profit has increased, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping, so data updates have been suspended [51]. - In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month; in December, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month; in November, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month; in December, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased month - on - month [59][65][71][72]. - In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 6.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [76]. Demand - Some tire enterprises were in the "New Year's Day" holiday maintenance state this week, and production capacity utilization continued to decline. Full - steel tires were destocked, while semi - steel tires continued to accumulate inventory [82]. - In November 2025, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated; passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline; tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month [83]. - In November 2025, the highway freight turnover increased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [87]. Inventory - China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, with a higher accumulation rate than the previous period. The inventory in Qingdao Port increased significantly, with a 6.6% increase in inbound volume and a 31% decrease in outbound volume [94]. - On January 9, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 1.045 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.88%; the 20 - rubber futures inventory at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 0.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.74% [97]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: As of Friday, the raw material glue price in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 Thai baht/kg. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 2.5% [101]. - Demand: Most enterprises that had maintenance during the "New Year's Day" holiday have restored production to normal levels, and some enterprises are still in the recovery stage. The overall shipment of enterprises is poor, and inventory reduction is slow [101]. - Viewpoint: Although there is an increase in supply during the high - yielding period of rubber tapping in Southeast Asia, the raw material prices overseas may remain high. The inventory accumulation rate of natural rubber spot may slow down in the short term, and rubber prices may continue to decline, but the downward space is limited [101]. - Valuation: On Friday, the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 980 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/ton [101]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Wait for opportunities to go long on dips. 2) Inter - delivery: Observe. 3) Inter - commodity: Go long on RU and short on NR [101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rubber market should shift to a bearish mindset. The subsequent supply and demand positive factors are diminishing, and it is easy for the rubber price to reach a phased high from January to February according to seasonal patterns. The high premium of RU over NR increases the price risk of RU [10][12]. - The revision of the NR delivery rules by the Shanghai International Energy Exchange is expected to increase the delivery quality and quantity of NR, making it more in line with the needs of the tire industry and rubber traders [15]. - The price of rubber is expected to turn bearish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [17]. - The postponement of EUDR will lead to a series of reactions such as inventory reduction in the stocking links of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative factor for demand [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - In January, it is still the winter storage season, but the subsequent supply and demand positive factors are decreasing. From January to February, it is easy for the rubber price to reach a phased high according to seasonal patterns. The high premium of RU over NR increases the price risk of RU. The reports on January 4, 8, and 9 have all indicated the downward risk of the rubber price [12]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has revised the NR delivery rules, which are expected to improve the quality of physical delivery commodities, standardize packaging and production processes, and optimize the management of inspection validity periods in the delivery process. It is beneficial to increase the delivery quantity of NR [15]. - The market logic: the bulls are mainly based on the expectation of winter storage in China and the positive expectation of Chinese policies, while the bears' main reasons are the dull demand reality and the expectation of poor demand due to the tariff - increasing policy. The export of rubber from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire has increased. In the medium term, the policy expectation is the key. The rubber price is gradually turning bearish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [17]. - Strategy recommendation: for the hedging strategy, go long on the NR main contract and short RU2609, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1, for an indefinite period. If the spread is above 3250, gradually build positions and conduct repeated band - trading [19]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with prices prone to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the price decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [26]. - The overseas demand expectation for rubber is marginally weakening, while the Chinese demand is stable [31]. 3.3. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to various commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, rebar, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are generally normal, without special values or points of concern [41][44][48]. 3.4. Cost Side - The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex in China is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost is low [52]. 3.5. Demand Side - The full - steel tire and semi - steel tire opening rates show no special values or points of concern [57]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the subsequent demand is expected to gradually recover, which will affect the supporting tires. The commercial vehicle sales correspond to the domestic supporting demand [60]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but the subsequent demand is expected to decline slightly [63]. 3.6. Supply Side - Most of the rubber import data sources were last updated in December 2021, and the import data is less analyzable after the 2020 pandemic [67]. - The supply of rubber from major producing countries is generally normal, without special values or points of concern [71][75][78]. - In November 2025, the rubber production was 1,167.7 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.40% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%. The cumulative production was 10,263 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.24%. The export was 869.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.42% and a month - on - month increase of 0.27%. The cumulative export was 8,837 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.73%. The consumption was 911.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22% and a month - on - month increase of 1.24%. The cumulative consumption was 10,001 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.86% [102][103]. 3.7. Butadiene and Related Products - The total capacity of butadiene with spot sales is 179.65 tons, accounting for 27.99%, and the total capacity without spot sales is 462.2 tons, accounting for 72.01%. The total capacity of butadiene rubber is 181.2 tons [117]. - Many butadiene production facilities have experienced maintenance, shutdown, and restart situations in 2025. Some production facilities have plans for future maintenance or shutdown [118]. - The weekly average operating load of butadiene rubber is 75.90%. Some enterprises have plans for shutdown or production reduction [119]. - In 2025, the new butadiene production capacity increased by 113 tons, with a growth rate of 16%. The new production capacity in Q4 2025 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene and decrease the processing profit. The import expectation of butadiene is high, which weakens the price [121][122]. 3.8. Ethylene and Related Products - In 2026 - 2027, many ethylene projects are expected to be put into production, with a total planned new capacity of 1,935 tons. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), the Chinese ethylene industry will enter a new round of capacity expansion cycle [123][124]. - The new butadiene production capacity in 2026 is expected to be 62 tons, with a growth rate of 8.9%. The supply pressure of butadiene is expected to decrease, but it will still be under pressure, and butadiene rubber will still drag down the price among the four major rubber varieties [126][127].

Group 1 - The European Union has signed an agreement with Sri Lanka to provide €8 million for a joint project aimed at supporting the country's transition to a green economy [1] - The initiative is led by Sri Lanka's Ministry of Plantations and involves collaboration with the Ministry of Rubber Development and the Rubber Research Institute [1] - The project aims to enhance the competitiveness of certain value chains within the rubber industry and promote sustainable agricultural development [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2026 年 1 月 9 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多因素提振 能化震荡偏强 核心观点 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 16030 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 0.96%至 16030 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度升阔至 25 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价摆脱三角形区间震荡， 维持震荡偏强格局。 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 26 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the period from January 7 to January 13, 2026, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared to the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping work increased slightly in most areas north of the equator and decreased in most areas south of the equator [6]. - This week, the natural rubber futures market fluctuated strongly. Market liquidity and risk preference, as well as the cost support from raw materials, drove up the price, but the demand for downstream tires and finished - product inventory dragged down the upward slope. Although the price is currently at the upper edge of the range and technically pressured, the center of the market's oscillation is still expected to rise as long as the macro - sentiment persists [7]. - The 2026 automobile trade - in policy will benefit more consumers than in 2025, potentially boosting new car consumption [8]. - In December 2025, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.57 million, a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume in 2025 was 15.33 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary (PART 01) - The rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia had different impacts on rubber tapping work in different regions during January 7 - 13, 2026 [6]. - The natural rubber futures market was bullish this week. Market liquidity, cost support from raw materials, and downstream tire demand had different effects on the price. The price was expected to rise further due to macro - sentiment [7]. - The 2026 automobile trade - in policy would benefit more consumers and potentially boost new car consumption. The new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale volume in December 2025 and the whole year had specific year - on - year and month - on - month changes [8]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - **Bullish factors**: Strong demand for raw material replenishment overseas supported the price of natural rubber raw materials; the reduction of butadiene inventory pressure supported its price; market liquidity and risk preference increased [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The inventory of natural rubber was piling up slightly; the production and inventory of cis - butadiene rubber were high; the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises was weakened by seasonal factors [11]. 3.3 Data Analysis (PART 03) - **Natural rubber raw material prices**: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of Thai glue and cup rubber, as well as those in Hainan and Yunnan in China, were stronger than before. The approaching of the off - season in domestic producing areas and overseas replenishment needs drove up the prices [12]. - **Natural rubber inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.232 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to pile up due to changes in inbound and outbound rates [15]. - **Butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber**: This week, the domestic butadiene price rose rapidly due to factors such as expected reduction in imports and strong downstream demand. The theoretical production profit of cis - butadiene rubber decreased. As of January 9, 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was high and the inventory fluctuated at a high level [16][19]. - **Tire enterprises**: As of the week of January 9, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The inventory depletion of all - steel tires was slightly better than that of semi - steel tires. The capacity utilization rate was expected to recover after the New Year's Day holiday but would decline seasonally during the Spring Festival [20]. - **Price differences between rubber contracts**: As of January 8, the price difference between the "RU - NR" main contracts was relatively stable, while the "NR - BR" main contract price difference narrowed, mainly affected by the stronger performance of butadiene prices [23]. 3.4后市研判 (PART 04) - Macro factors, natural rubber fundamentals, synthetic rubber fundamentals, and downstream tire demand had different impacts on the market. Market liquidity and raw material cost support were the main driving forces, while downstream demand and inventory were drag factors. The price was at the upper edge of the range, but the market's oscillation center was expected to rise as long as the macro - sentiment remained [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [7]. - This week, most domestic butadiene rubber plants were operating at high loads, with sufficient supply. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 11,000 to 12,200 yuan/ton [8]. - In the near future, the supply of butadiene rubber will remain high. The butadiene rubber market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of manufacturers have improved. However, there is still some inventory waiting to be picked up, and the overall inventory level has changed little. Due to the continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials, the supply price of butadiene rubber has increased significantly. However, due to the resistance of downstream buyers to high prices, they may maintain rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the inventory of manufacturers and traders may increase in the short term [8]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [7]. - Market review: Most domestic butadiene rubber plants were operating at high loads, with sufficient supply. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 11,000 to 12,200 yuan/ton [8]. - Market outlook: Supply will remain high. Raw material prices will boost sales, but inventory may increase due to downstream resistance to high prices. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 4.37% [12]. - As of January 9, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber was - 50 [18]. - As of January 9, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 4,530 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from last week [21]. - **Spot Market** - As of January 8, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - As of January 8, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of January 8, the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 540.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.23 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 735 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - As of January 9, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, an increase of 0.7% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [32]. - **Industry Middle - Stream** - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [35]. - As of January 8, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 79.15%, an increase of 2.35% from last week [35]. - As of January 8, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 669 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - As of January 9, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,120 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,350 tons, an increase of 50 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,770 tons, a decrease of 410 tons from last week [42]. - **Downstream** - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [45]. - In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40% and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.9637 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.67%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.445 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.64% [48]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No information provided.

Group 1: Market Performance - The rubber sector increased by 0.54% on January 9, with Keqiang Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Keqiang Co., Ltd. (code: 920665) closed at 15.32, with a rise of 4.79% and a trading volume of 121,800 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 187 million [1] - Other notable performers include: - Sanwei Co., Ltd. (code: 603033) closed at 11.02, up 2.89% [1] - Tongcheng New Materials (code: 603650) closed at 57.62, up 1.57% [1] - Kelong New Materials (code: 920098) closed at 32.19, up 0.91% [1] Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The rubber sector experienced a net outflow of 415 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 305 million [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks shows: - Keqiang Co., Ltd. had a net outflow of 9.84 million from institutional investors [3] - Sanwei Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 8.68 million from institutional investors [3] - Double Arrow Co., Ltd. (code: 002381) had a net inflow of 4.11 million from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The national production material market prices increased by 0.3% from the previous week during the period from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026 [1] - Prices of non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with copper, aluminum, and zinc increasing by 2.9%, 1.4%, and 0.7% respectively [1] Group 2 - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices were mainly up, with polypropylene and sulfuric acid both increasing by 0.2%, while methanol decreased by 0.1% [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable, with urea and compound fertilizers holding steady compared to the previous week [2] - Steel prices showed a slight decline, with rebar priced at 3360 yuan per ton, remaining stable, while ordinary medium plates and channel steel decreased by 0.2% to 3639 yuan and 3544 yuan per ton respectively [2] Group 3 - Wholesale prices of finished oil experienced a slight decline, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [3] - Coal prices saw a minor decrease, with coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite priced at 1037 yuan, 774 yuan, and 1156 yuan per ton, declining by 1.4%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [3]

宁证期货指出，国内产区停割，东南亚原料价格止跌回升，胶厂加工利润亏损；国内天胶显性库存累 库，一季度累库高度预期不一。需求端多数轮胎样本企业维持灵活控产状态，成品库存累库中，原料采 购维持逢低补货节奏。技术处于调整阶段。整体宽幅震荡对待，短期高位偏空。 1月9日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，天然橡胶期货主力合约开盘报16120.00元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至发稿，天然橡胶主力最高触及16135.00元，下方探低15815.00元，跌幅达1.05%附 近。 申银万国期货指出，国内产胶区基本停割，泰国东北部预计1月份将陆续停割，近期南部洪涝对供应产 生一定影响，支撑胶价。去年下半年以来，青岛地区库存缓慢去库，但四季度重新累库，12月底，库存 回升至全年高点。RU期货仓单目前仍处于偏低位置。轮胎开工方面，仍保持相对稳定。短期供应端弹 性减弱，原料胶价格相对坚挺。预计胶价震荡偏强。 格林大华期货分析称，基本面看，当前国内橡胶供需变动有限，前期受商品和情绪提振叠加海外原料价 格走强给予盘面较强动力。而随着盘面涨至前高附近且市场氛围降温，期价出现明显回调，短期盘面上 方阻力显现。【交易策略】RU主力关注15 ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-09 下游轮胎开工率继续示弱 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16120元/吨，较前一日变动-60元/吨；NR主力合约13065元/吨，较前一日变动-85 元/吨；BR主力合约12195元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15800元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15080元/吨，较前一 日变动-20元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1920美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1865 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11950元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2.6%至147.4万吨，较上月下降1.5%；天胶消费量 料降1.4%至124.8万吨，较上月下降0.9%。前11个月，全球天胶累计产量料增2%至1337.5万吨，累计消费量料降1.7% 至1393.2万吨。 据隆众资讯了解，上周期，轮胎样本企业产能利用率走 ...