Report Overview - The report is a pulp morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on September 11, 2025 [2] SP Main Contract Information - On September 10, 2025, the closing price of the SP main contract was 4996.00, with a 0.52314% increase from the previous day. The converted US dollar price was 612.08. The basis of Shandong Yinxing was 694, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing was 704 [3] Import Pulp Price and Profit - Calculated with a 13% VAT, for Canadian pulp, the CFR price of Golden Lion was 780 US dollars, and the RMB price in Shandong was 6300, with an import profit of -45.57; the CFR price of Lion was 730 US dollars, and the RMB price in Shandong was 5410, with an import profit of -533.29. For Chilean pulp, the CFR L/C 90 - day price of Yinxing was 720 US dollars, and the RMB price in Shandong was 5690, with an import profit of -172.83 [4] Pulp Price Averages - From September 4 to September 10, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural color pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The average prices in Shandong area also remained unchanged [4] Paper Product Index and Profit Margin - From September 5 to September 10, 2025, the indices of cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and tissue paper remained unchanged. The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, and tissue paper remained stable, while the profit margin of white card paper increased by 0.6954 from September 5 to September 10 [4] Pulp Price Spreads - From September 4 to September 10, 2025, the spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural color pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper pulp changed slightly [4]

Group 1 - The effects of anti-involution policies are beginning to show in the PPI data, with commodity price increases leading to price recovery in downstream industries [1][3] - In August, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was -0.4%, while the PPI year-on-year growth rate was -2.9%, indicating a steady recovery in inflation [1][2] - The core CPI has shown resilience, with a significant year-on-year increase, despite food prices being a major drag due to the pig cycle [1][2] Group 2 - Food price declines are primarily driven by pork and egg prices, with the pig cycle in a bottoming phase and high inventory levels affecting egg prices [2] - The PPI data reflects a recovery in upstream mining prices, with coal mining and black metal industries showing month-on-month increases of 2.8% and 2.1% respectively [3] - The anti-involution policy focuses on addressing overcapacity caused by "herd investment" in downstream industries, aiming for more sustainable price recovery [3]

Group 1 - The launch of futures and options for coated printing paper, fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) marks a significant development in the financial tools available for the paper industry [1][2] - The paper and board production in China is projected to reach 136 million tons in 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest producer and consumer for 16 consecutive years [2] - The introduction of these financial instruments is expected to enhance the risk management capabilities of upstream and downstream enterprises in the cultural paper sector, supporting the sustainable development of the paper industry [2][3] Group 2 - Coated printing paper is a crucial segment of the paper industry, widely used in cultural dissemination, writing, and printing, with a market size exceeding 100 billion yuan [3] - The pulp futures market, established in 2018, has become an essential tool for pricing and risk management in the industry, and the addition of new futures and options will further strengthen the hedging framework for enterprises [3][4] - The SHFE aims to enhance the risk management level of the pulp and paper industry chain and support the green and low-carbon transformation of the sector through these new financial products [4]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of futures and options for coated printing paper, fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks the introduction of the world's first financial derivatives for cultural paper, significantly enhancing risk management capabilities in the paper industry [1][2][5] Group 1: Industry Significance - The introduction of coated printing paper futures and options fills a gap in domestic cultural paper derivatives, providing tools for precise management of price volatility risks for enterprises in the cultural paper industry [1][2] - The launch is timely as the paper industry seeks high-quality development and aims to become a strong player in the global market, enhancing the industry's resilience against risks and supporting the prosperity of cultural dissemination [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The first day of trading saw the listing of eight contracts for coated printing paper futures at a benchmark price of 4218 yuan per ton, with a total transaction volume of 21,900 contracts and a transaction value of 3.703 billion yuan [4] - The market attracted funds from other products, particularly from the pulp futures market, indicating a familiarity with the paper industry and a potential for cross-product arbitrage strategies [4][5] Group 3: Regulatory and Developmental Aspects - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented multiple preventive measures to ensure a stable launch and operation of the new products, including contract design, risk monitoring, and investor training [3][5] - The launch of these products represents a significant step towards a collaborative development of futures and options, enhancing the overall product system and meeting the diverse needs of enterprises [5]

Core Insights - The launch of the futures and options for coated printing paper, fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp options on September 10 marks the introduction of the world's first financial derivatives for cultural paper, enhancing risk management capabilities in the paper industry [1][5] - This initiative is seen as a significant step in enriching and perfecting the multi-layered derivative system in the industry, catering to the refined and diversified needs of enterprises [1][4] Industry Impact - The introduction of coated printing paper futures and options fills a gap in domestic cultural paper derivatives, providing tools for enterprises in the cultural paper industry to manage price volatility risks effectively [1][2] - The coated printing paper is a crucial branch of the paper industry, widely used in cultural dissemination, writing, and printing [2] Financial Tools and Market Dynamics - The new financial instruments are expected to enhance the risk management capabilities of upstream and downstream enterprises in the cultural paper sector, laying a foundation for the prosperity of cultural dissemination [2][5] - The first day of trading saw a total of 21,000 contracts traded, with a transaction value of 3.703 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest [4] Regulatory and Market Structure - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented multiple preventive measures to ensure a stable launch and operation of the new products, including contract design, risk monitoring, and investor training [3][4] - The introduction of these products is part of a broader strategy to enhance the international competitiveness of China's paper industry and attract global investment [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of futures and options for newsprint paper, fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant development in China's futures market, providing essential financial tools for the paper industry and enhancing risk management capabilities [1][2][4]. Industry Summary - The paper industry is a crucial sector in China's light industry, with a production capacity of 136 million tons in 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest producer and consumer of paper and paperboard for 16 consecutive years [2]. - The introduction of newsprint paper futures and options, along with pulp options, is timely and significant for the industry's high-quality development and transition towards a stronger paper manufacturing nation [2][3]. - The new financial instruments will provide important risk management tools for upstream and downstream enterprises in the cultural paper sector, supporting the sustainable development of the paper industry [2][3]. - The market's liquidity and contract continuity for previously listed products like fuel oil and asphalt have demonstrated effective risk management capabilities during price volatility [2]. - The addition of these new products signifies a new phase of collaborative development between futures and options, enhancing the multi-layered derivative system in the industry [2][4]. Company Summary - Newsprint paper is a vital segment of the paper industry, widely used in cultural dissemination, writing, and printing, with China's market exceeding 100 billion yuan [3]. - The pulp futures market, established in 2018, has become an essential tool for pricing and risk management in the industry, and the new products will further strengthen the hedging system for the paper supply chain [3]. - The introduction of these financial instruments will help companies manage raw material costs and price fluctuations, thereby improving operational stability and resource allocation efficiency [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange aims to enhance product offerings and promote high-level openness in the futures market, supporting the green and low-carbon transformation of the paper industry [4].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the newsprint futures on September 10 has attracted significant market participation, indicating a potential shift in the dynamics of the printing paper industry, particularly in terms of risk management and pricing stability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The main contract for newsprint futures closed at 4208 yuan/ton on its first trading day, a slight decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the listing price, reflecting a 0.24% drop [1]. - The secondary contract showed a stronger performance, closing at 4218 yuan/ton, indicating expectations of improved demand during peak consumption seasons [1]. - Trading volume reached 21,900 contracts with a total transaction value of 3.703 billion yuan, highlighting active market engagement [1]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The newsprint industry is facing overcapacity, with an operating rate around 55%, and a slowdown in downstream consumption growth [3]. - Factors affecting long-term demand include the digitalization trend replacing printed materials and a decline in birth rates impacting educational material needs [3]. - The overall profit margins in the industry are under pressure, with many companies operating at minimal profit or even losses due to the inability to pass on costs effectively [3][4]. Group 3: Risk Management and Future Outlook - The introduction of newsprint futures and options is expected to provide production companies with tools to stabilize their pricing and improve competitiveness [2][4]. - Companies are encouraged to engage in risk management strategies, such as using options to hedge against price fluctuations, which could enhance profitability [4]. - The development of a comprehensive risk management framework combining futures and options is seen as crucial for improving the resilience and competitiveness of the industry, especially in international markets [4].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of futures and options for offset printing paper, fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp at the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant step in enhancing risk management for the paper industry and meeting the diverse needs of enterprises in managing risks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of cultural paper, with offset printing paper being a key segment, characterized by a large market size, high standardization, and significant price volatility [1]. - In 2024, China's production of offset printing paper is projected to reach 9.48 million tons, with apparent consumption at 8.71 million tons [1]. Group 2: Product Launch and Trading Performance - The first day of trading for offset printing paper futures saw a total of 21,900 contracts traded, amounting to 3.703 billion yuan, with an open interest of 2,900 contracts [2]. - The main contract OP2601 closed at 4,208 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the listing benchmark price, reflecting a decrease of 0.24% [5]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Risk Management - The introduction of offset printing paper futures fills a gap in the domestic market for financial derivatives related to cultural paper, enabling better risk management across the supply chain [4]. - The new products are expected to enhance the pricing model and supply-demand balance in the industry, allowing companies to adjust production capacity based on futures price signals [5][6]. Group 4: Expansion of Options Products - The launch of options for fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp, alongside the offset printing paper products, expands the Shanghai Futures Exchange's options offerings to 18, covering various sectors [7]. - Companies are increasingly exploring the use of options for more precise risk management, especially in the context of complex market conditions [7][8].

胶版印刷纸期货上市首日 9月10日，胶版印刷纸期货在上期所挂牌交易。上市首日，主力2601合约收于4208元/吨，较4218元/吨 的挂牌基准价下跌10元/吨，跌幅为0.24%。次主力2603合约收于4218元/吨，较主力合约升水10元/吨。 宋霁鹏告诉期货日报记者，胶版印刷纸生产成本的重要构成纸浆（占比65%~70%）价格今年以来整体 低位震荡，虽在一定程度上缓解了造纸企业的成本压力，但胶版印刷纸市场供过于求，价格传导不畅， 企业难以通过提高产品价格来提升利润，行业整体利润空间被压缩，多数企业处于微利甚至亏损边缘。 数据显示，截至9月10日下午收盘，胶版印刷纸期货成交2.19万手（单边，下同），成交金额37.03亿 元，持仓0.29万手，成交持仓比7.42。 兴业期货分析师杨帆认为，在过剩格局下，行业利润整体不佳，企业开展风险管理的重要性凸显，适度 参与纸浆及胶版印刷纸期权，能够有效平衡期货头寸。例如买入期权保护或替代原有期货头寸以规避风 险，或者卖出期权增加收益以修正基差或价差。通过构建期货与期权相结合的风险管理体系，并且灵活 调整头寸的比例，企业能够从容应对各类行情，最终大幅提升盈利能力。 上期所数据显 ...

报告导读： 反内卷政策效果在 PPI 中初步显现，大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游行业的价 格修复，传导效果较为明显。猪周期拖累 CPI 再次转负，但服务价格韧性，消费价格仍处 于稳步回升的通道。 8 月 CPI 同比增速 -0.4% ，环比 0.0% ； PPI 同比增速 -2.9% ，环比回升至 0.0% 。 8 月通胀保持稳步修复。在猪周期影响下，食品价格对 CPI 形成 主要拖累，但核心服务价格保持韧性，核心 CPI 同比大幅回升。反内卷政策效果在 8 月 PPI 数据已有所显现，采掘工业价格动能回正，黑色链条也出现止跌 回稳的迹象，同时大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游加工业，后续观察涨价的持续性与弹性。 CPI ：服务表现韧性，食品形成拖累 PPI ：反内卷政策效果初步显现 反内卷政策效果将持续释放。 与 2015 年供给侧改革不同，本轮反内卷政策行动聚焦中下游行业"羊群投资"和盲目扩张造成的产能过剩，政策更加注重指引 企业通过规范竞争淘汰产能，并强化监督地方政府的投资推广行为，而非简单通过行政干预快速达到去产能的目的。这使得本轮价格回升的动能或稍显迟缓， 但基础却更加牢固。 风险提示： 地产尾部压力依然存在、 ...