Core Insights - The company is set to begin construction of its production base in Thailand next year, with a construction period of approximately one year [1] - This production base will enable local production and sales, serving as a key support for the company's overseas expansion strategy [1] - The company's overseas sales are expected to exceed 200 million yuan this year, a significant increase from last year's overseas revenue of 62.736 million yuan [1]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 10 28 年 月 日 盐津铺子（002847.SZ） 收入符合预期，利润亮眼增长 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度实现营收 44.3 亿元，同比 +14.7%，归母净利润 6.0 亿元，同比+22.6%，扣非净利润 5.5 亿元，同 比+30.5%。25Q3 单季度营收 14.9 亿元，同比+6.0%，归母净利润 2.3 亿元，同比+33.5%，扣非净利润 2.2 亿元，同比+45.0%。 电商调整 Q3 收入降速，利润延续高增。25Q3 公司营收同比+6.0%至 14.9 亿元，环比 Q2 有所降速，我们预计与渠道变革之下，电商费率提升，公 司主动调整电商运营策略，形成一定拖累相关，过去盐津在每一轮渠道变 革机遇中均快速把握机会，当前叠加大魔王等大单品打造成熟，进一步牵 引定量流通等渠道布局。品类维度，盐津大魔王开创麻酱魔芋赛道，牵引 整体增长，同时公司储备虎皮鳕鱼豆腐、虎皮豆干等产品体系，后续复制 大魔王的打造路径，有望复刻更多大单品。25Q3 归母净利润同比+33.5% 至 2.3 亿元，延续亮眼高增，预计主要来自于大单品打磨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 95 yuan [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 605 million yuan, up 22.63% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.486 billion yuan, a 6.05% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 232 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 33.55% [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 109 million yuan, which accounts for 18.05% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 5.304 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.9%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 8.143 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.0% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 640 million yuan in 2024, growing to 1.202 billion yuan by 2027, with respective growth rates of 26.5% and 21.8% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 2.35 yuan in 2024 to 4.41 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 30 to 16 [5]. Market and Competitive Position - The company is experiencing a shift in its sales channels, with e-commerce adjustments impacting revenue growth. However, offline channels are expected to maintain a growth rate of over 20% [9]. - The product mix optimization and cost control in e-commerce have led to an unexpected improvement in profitability, with a gross margin of 31.63% in Q3, up 1.01 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company maintains a competitive advantage through cost leadership and strong organizational capabilities, with a focus on expanding its product categories, particularly in the konjac segment [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.67%, with a net profit of 605 million yuan, up 22.63% year-on-year [7] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 486 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 232 million yuan, up 33.55% year-on-year [7] - The company is experiencing strong growth in its konjac product line, with expectations for continued volume growth [7] - Profit margins exceeded expectations, with a gross margin of 31.6% in Q3 2025, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product and channel structure, leading to improved profitability [7] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 823.75 million, 1.00734 billion, and 1.21605 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.72%, 22.29%, and 20.72% [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is forecasted to reach 5.959 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.35% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 3.02 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.30 [1] - The company’s net profit margin is projected to improve, with a net profit of 823.75 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [7]

Group 1: Macro Insights - In September, industrial enterprise profits continued to expand year-on-year, primarily driven by low base effects, with characteristics of rising volume and price, improved profit margins, and proactive inventory replenishment [2] - The profit growth in raw materials and equipment manufacturing sectors has accelerated, with profit distribution increasingly favoring midstream and upstream industries [2] - Looking ahead, profits are expected to maintain high growth rates in October and November due to low base support, but weak terminal demand and diminishing effects of "anti-involution" may temper the recovery process [2] Group 2: Fund Market Insights - Domestic equity market indices rose, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, while gold prices experienced a pullback [3] - TMT-themed funds outperformed again, while there was significant net outflow from domestic stock ETFs, particularly from large-cap and TMT-themed ETFs [3] - Notably, there was significant inflow into commodity ETFs, particularly gold ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The automotive industry is undergoing rapid restructuring due to technological changes, particularly in intelligent driving and humanoid robotics, aligning with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and economic growth [4] - Investment opportunities are recommended in the robot and intelligent driving themes, particularly focusing on strong model cycles in the second half of 2025 [4] Group 4: Steel Industry - Steel futures profits have dropped to their lowest levels since 2015, but there is potential for recovery to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [5] - The steel sector's price fluctuations should be monitored closely as they pose risks to profitability [5] Group 5: Building Materials - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to accelerate following the introduction of the "strong aerospace nation" initiative, with Shanghai's action plan promoting high-quality development in the construction industry [6] - Recommendations include focusing on new materials and construction-related companies, such as China Jushi and Guoen Co., which are positioned in high-growth segments [6] Group 6: Company-Specific Insights - Chuanfa Longmang reported significant revenue and profit growth in Q3, driven by the integration of Tianbao Company, with forecasts for net profits of 657 million, 817 million, and 964 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [8] - CNOOC Engineering's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 17.7 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan, and forecasts suggest continued growth in net profits over the next three years [9] - Luoyang Molybdenum's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan, and projections for net profits of 19 billion, 20.1 billion, and 21.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [10] - Western Mining's net profit for the first three quarters was 2.95 billion yuan, with a significant acquisition expected to enhance resource holdings and future profitability [11] - North New Building Materials reported a decline in revenue and net profit, prompting a downward revision of profit forecasts for the next three years, but maintains a stable outlook for its gypsum board business [12] - China National Materials reported stable performance with improved cash flow and a significant increase in new contracts, particularly from overseas markets [13] - Fuanna's revenue declined significantly in Q3, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts, reflecting challenges in retail and business adjustments [14] - Sanofi's net profit was below expectations due to one-time expenses, but the company remains a leader in blood glucose monitoring with potential for overseas expansion [15] - Ziyan Food's revenue decreased in the first three quarters, but Q3 showed signs of recovery, with forecasts for future earnings remaining positive [16] - Zhongju Gaoxin's revenue and net profit declined in the first three quarters, leading to revised forecasts, but the company continues to focus on channel development and new product performance [17] - Jinzhai Food reported modest revenue growth but faced profit declines, with future earnings projections indicating potential for recovery [18] - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue and net profit showed significant growth in the first three quarters, with upward revisions to future profit forecasts reflecting strong performance [19]

Core Viewpoint - Jin Tian Animation has experienced three consecutive years of revenue growth, but it shows a significant reliance on a single IP, "Ultraman," raising concerns about its ability to achieve its "Hong Kong stock dream" [2][5]. IP Dependency - The company has a high concentration of IP, with the largest IP, "Ultraman," accounting for a substantial portion of its revenue, indicating a core business risk due to reliance on external IP authorization and customer concentration [3][8]. - From 2022 to the first half of 2025, the top five authorized IP products contributed to 90%, 88.7%, 85.9%, and 85.7% of total revenue, with "Ultraman" alone contributing 62.6%, 63%, 54.5%, and 43.9% respectively [8][9]. Financial Performance - Jin Tian Animation's revenue has shown consistent growth, with figures of 596 million, 664 million, and 877 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, and 444 million yuan in the first half of 2025. Net profit increased from 36.71 million to 130 million yuan during the same period [7][12]. - The company's gross margin improved from 26.6% to 33.7%, and cash generated from operating activities rose from 81.3 million to 189 million yuan [12]. Liquidity and Debt - The company has faced liquidity issues, with net current liabilities existing from 2022 to 2024, indicating short-term repayment pressure. As of August 2025, current assets were 477 million yuan, while current liabilities were approximately 479 million yuan [13]. - Total loans and borrowings increased from 118 million to 180 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, reaching about 191 million yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a rising leverage [13]. Ownership Structure - The controlling shareholder, Cai Jianchun, holds 100% of the company's shares, directly owning approximately 87.8% and indirectly controlling an additional 12.2% through partnerships [15][16]. - The company has established a vertically integrated model of "authorization-design-production-sales," leveraging various international IPs, including "Ultraman" and Disney [15]. Market Position and Competition - Jin Tian Animation ranks first in the Chinese IP fun food market with a market share of 7.6%, while the top five companies collectively hold only 16.7%, indicating a low concentration and high competition in the industry [16]. - Competitors include large snack food groups entering the IP collaboration space, IP derivative manufacturers, and regional small manufacturers using OEM or private label strategies [16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent quarterly report of Jinzai Food (003000.SZ) indicates a revenue increase without profit growth, with a slight revenue growth of 2.05% year-on-year to 1.808 billion yuan, marking the lowest growth rate since its listing in 2020. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.51% to 173 million yuan [3][4]. Group 1: Q3 Performance - In Q3, Jinzai Food achieved a revenue of 685 million yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.55% and 29.52%, respectively. However, the net profit decreased by 14.77% year-on-year to 60.83 million yuan, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability [5][7]. - The company has been focusing on the development, production, and sales of Chinese-style snack foods, with major products including fish products, poultry products, and bean products. Revenue growth rates from 2021 to 2024 were 22.21%, 31.59%, 41.26%, and 16.79%, respectively [5][6]. - The company has expanded its distribution channels, increasing the number of distributors to 3,502, up by 336 from the previous year. However, the core sales model's distributor revenue declined by 9.25% to 792 million yuan [5][6]. Group 2: Product Performance - The growth of fish products, a key revenue driver, showed signs of slowing down, with a revenue of 757 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 7.61%, accounting for approximately 67.4% of total revenue. The growth rate has significantly decreased from 16.64% in the previous year [11][12]. - The company has been focusing on poultry products as a second growth curve, with revenue from this segment reaching 450 million yuan in 2023. However, in 2025, poultry product sales dropped by 27.88% year-on-year, leading to a revenue decline of 24% to 196 million yuan [12][13]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for Q3 decreased by 1.14 percentage points to 28.93%, influenced by changes in channel structure and the performance of different sales models [7][10]. - Sales expenses reached a record high of 250 million yuan in the first three quarters, with Q3 sales expenses at 95 million yuan, resulting in a sales expense ratio of 13.82%, an increase of 1.59 percentage points year-on-year [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term operational pressure due to increased competition and weak demand during the holiday season. However, new channels and products are expected to support improvement in the long term [5][6] - Revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 5.4% and 73.2% year-on-year, respectively. The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting net profits of 3.4 billion, 5.8 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan, respectively [4][6] - The company is actively developing new products and expanding into new channels, which is anticipated to gradually improve overall operations [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue was 4.5 billion yuan, and net profit was 168 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.4% and 73.2%, respectively [4] - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 were 24.5% and 4.5%, down 8.6 percentage points and 11.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs and increased sales expenses [6] - The company has launched new products such as the Mountain Wild series of sunflower seeds and ice cream, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [7] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is projected to be 6.89 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 3.4%. The net profit is expected to be 338 million yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 60.2% [8] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 21.3% in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [8] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 is estimated at 32.9 times, decreasing to 19.1 times in 2026 and 17.4 times in 2027 [8]

Market Overview - The leisure food sector increased by 0.56% on October 27, with Yan Jin Pu Zi leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13489.4, up 1.51% [1] Key Performers - Yan Jin Pu Zi (002847) closed at 70.35, up 3.30% with a trading volume of 36,500 lots and a transaction value of 256 million [1] - Hao Xiang Ni (002582) closed at 69.6, up 3.09% with a trading volume of 171,400 lots and a transaction value of 164 million [1] - Qingdao Food (001219) closed at 14.59, up 1.67% with a trading volume of 46,200 lots and a transaction value of approximately 66.82 million [1] Decliners - Mai Qu Er (002719) closed at 9.62, down 3.41% with a trading volume of 85,300 lots and a transaction value of approximately 82.60 million [2] - Zi Yan Food (603057) closed at 18.54, down 1.17% with a trading volume of 24,400 lots and a transaction value of approximately 45.37 million [2] - Gan Yuan Food (002991) closed at 55.00, down 0.72% with a trading volume of 7,860 lots and a transaction value of approximately 43.31 million [2] Capital Flow - The leisure food sector experienced a net outflow of 15.59 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 81.17 million [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Hao Xiang Ni (002582) saw a net inflow of 19.65 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 13.79 million [3] - Qingdao Food (001219) had a net inflow of 8.93 million from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 7.54 million [3] - West Mai Food (002956) recorded a net inflow of 8.17 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 6.33 million [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 19.8 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.514 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6.43% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 194 million yuan, down 44.37% year-on-year. In Q3 2025 alone, revenue was 1.041 billion yuan, an increase of 1.75% year-on-year, while net profit was 90 million yuan, a decrease of 40.66% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company continues to face operational pressures, but there is a focus on overseas business developments, particularly the establishment of a processing base in Nepal, which could significantly reduce tariff costs for imported beef products [8][9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024A is projected at 3.363 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -5.3%. For 2025E, revenue is expected to decrease to 3.160 billion yuan, with a further decline of 6.0% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 346 million yuan for 2024A, with a significant drop to 208 million yuan in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 39.8% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are estimated at 0.84 yuan for 2024A, dropping to 0.50 yuan in 2025E, and gradually increasing to 0.81 yuan by 2027E [4][8]. Operational Insights - The company has approximately 5,200 stores as of October 2025, indicating a stable presence in the market despite the ongoing operational challenges [8]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 22.9%, down 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs and a decline in product mix [8][9]. - The company has seen varied performance across different regions, with significant growth in South China (73.1% year-on-year) while other regions like North China experienced a decline of 17.3% [8].