Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, anticipating potential market resilience in 2026 due to policy support and corporate improvements [1] 2025 Review - In the first nine months of 2025, China's retail sales reached 365.877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with retail sales of non-automotive consumer goods growing by 4.9% [1] - Cosmetics sales increased by 3.9%, while gold and jewelry sales surged by 11.5% due to a low base last year and rising gold prices [1] - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports amounted to approximately 2.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.4% growth despite external tariff impacts [1] Structural Highlights - The consumption landscape in 2025 shows structural highlights in sectors like pets, trendy toys, personal care, and jewelry, driven by new consumer insights and product innovation [2] - The new consumption industry trends and the reversal expectations of traditional consumption are identified as two core themes, with initial positive market performance followed by a cooling phase [2] 2026 Outlook - New Market: Exploration of incremental growth opportunities in domestic markets and continued overseas expansion as a key strategy for Chinese brands [3] - New Demand: Insights into emerging consumer preferences will drive product innovation focused on emotional and practical value [3] - Platformization: In a competitive environment, companies need to develop platform mechanisms and explore new opportunities to ensure sustainable growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the consumer sector, indicating a strong market performance with various sub-sectors showing significant gains [3]. Core Insights - The consumer sector experienced a broad increase in stock prices, with notable weekly gains in social services (+3.92%), retail (+3.45%), textiles and apparel (+2.75%), and home appliances (+1.78%) [3]. - The implementation of the "3+10" consumption matrix aims to create a market space worth trillions, focusing on areas such as elderly products and consumer electronics as core sectors [3]. - The report highlights the government's efforts to boost inbound tourism and consumption through policy measures, resulting in a near doubling of tax refund sales from January to September [3]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a comprehensive rise, with leading stocks such as Hai Xin Food (+45.38%) and Mao Ye Commercial (+51.11%) showing exceptional performance [3][12]. - The report notes a structural contradiction in the consumer market, where supply exceeds demand but quality supply is insufficient, prompting a shift towards quality enhancement [3]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The Ministry of Commerce reported a significant increase in tax refund sales, indicating a robust recovery in inbound consumption [3]. - The report mentions the launch of a new brand by Zhongxin Tourism, which has seen a 300% increase in search volume for winter sports products, reflecting growing consumer interest [15]. - The report also discusses the introduction of stringent safety standards for mobile power supplies, enhancing product safety and quality in the consumer electronics sector [15].

Group 1: Industrial Profit and Economic Indicators - In October, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was -5.5%, down from 21.6%, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth[4] - The industrial added value year-on-year growth was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous period[4] - The PPI year-on-year was -2.1%, slightly improved from -2.3%[4] - The operating income profit margin fell from 18.7% to -5.7% year-on-year due to rising costs and a high base effect from last year[4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - During the "Black Friday" shopping season, 1.87 billion consumers are expected to participate, a record high, but average planned spending decreased by 4% to $622[7] - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 51 in November, down from 53.6 in October, marking a historical low[7] - In November, the PMI marginally increased by 0.2 percentage points, influenced by seasonal factors, with price indices performing better than recent futures market prices[10] Group 3: Risks and Policy Responses - Risks include U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments, which may lead to export fluctuations and profit declines[3] - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing consumer supply and demand compatibility through a new implementation plan aimed at optimizing consumption structures by 2027[19] - The price of lithium iron phosphate increased by 12.5% from 34,800 yuan/ton to 39,100 yuan/ton due to regulatory measures against price competition[15]

- The report discusses the microstructure timing model, which evaluates market timing based on microstructure indicators such as informed trader activity. This model identifies market trends by analyzing the activity of informed traders, which is positively correlated with market performance. The report highlights that informed trader activity increased alongside the equity market's rise this week, indicating cautious optimism for the future[17][14] - The report also mentions the BARRA style factor model, which analyzes the performance of various style factors in the equity market. This week, fundamental factors showed reduced dispersion, with a preference for value over growth. High-beta stocks and those with strong short-term momentum outperformed, while small-cap stocks gained favor as large-cap factors retreated[24][25] - The report evaluates the turnover factor, which measures the impact of trading activity on stock performance. This week, the turnover factor showed a positive return of 0.2%, indicating that stocks with higher turnover rates performed better[25] - The momentum factor, which captures the tendency of stocks with strong recent performance to continue performing well, exhibited a significant positive return of 1.0% this week, reflecting strong market momentum[25] - The BP value factor, representing book-to-price ratio, showed a positive return of 0.1%, suggesting that stocks with higher book-to-price ratios were slightly favored by the market[25] - The non-linear size factor and size factor, which measure the impact of market capitalization on stock performance, both showed negative returns of -0.3% and -0.5%, respectively, indicating a shift in market preference towards smaller-cap stocks[25] - The report highlights that the microstructure timing model and style factor models suggest a favorable environment for quantitative strategies, with significant room for growth in quantitative private equity funds, estimated at an additional RMB 400-600 billion[14][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On November 28, 2025, the convertible bond market showed incremental growth and an increase in valuation. Small - cap growth stocks had an advantage in the market style, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up. Most industries in the underlying stocks and convertible bonds rose [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Main Index Performance - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.68% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.85%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.70%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.09%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.06%. From the perspective of style indices, small - cap growth stocks were relatively dominant, with small - cap growth rising 1.67% [1][7]. 3.2 Market Fund Performance - Trading volume: The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 5.9368 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.84%; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 159.7731 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.28%. The net inflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 682.5 million yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 1.25bp month - on - month to 1.84% [1][8]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - Bond price: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.44 yuan, a 0.87% increase from the previous day. The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 54.04%, a 2.28 - percentage - point increase from the previous day. The price median was 130.74 yuan, a 0.55% increase from the previous day [2]. - Valuation: The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 31.35%, a 0.44 - percentage - point increase from the previous day. The overall weighted par value was 100.04 yuan, a 0.91% increase from the previous day. The premium rates of all types of convertible bonds increased [2]. 3.4 Industry Rotation - Underlying stock industry: 28 industries in the A - share market rose, with the top three gainers being steel (+1.59%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+1.59%), and commerce and retail (+1.46%); only two industries fell, namely banking (-0.83%) and coal (-0.14%) [3]. - Convertible bond industry: All convertible bond industries rose, with the top three gainers being steel (+4.81%), building materials (+4.56%), and power equipment (+2.70%) [3]. - Different sectors: In terms of closing price, large - cycle rose 1.60%, manufacturing rose 1.28%, technology rose 0.62%, large - consumption rose 0.57%, and large - finance rose 0.32%. In terms of conversion premium rate, large - cycle decreased by 0.087 percentage points, manufacturing decreased by 0.3 percentage points, technology decreased by 0.36 percentage points, large - consumption increased by 0.016 percentage points, and large - finance increased by 1.3 percentage points [3].

天眼查App显示，近日，汉寿京北商贸有限公司成立，法定代表人为余发勇，注册资本50万人民币，经 营范围为许可项目：酒类经营（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营 项目以批准文件或许可证件为准）一般项目：食品销售（仅销售预包装食品）;食品互联网销售（仅销 售预包装食品）;食用农产品批发;食用农产品零售;日用百货销售;家居用品销售;技术服务、技术开发、 技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广;信息技术咨询服务;网络技术服务;互联网销售（除销售需要 许可的商品）（除依法须经批准的项目外，自主开展法律法规未禁止、未限制的经营活动）。 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.34% on November 28, with 29 out of 31 sectors experiencing gains, led by the steel and agriculture sectors, both up by 1.59% [1] - The retail trade sector ranked third in terms of gains for the day [1] - The banking and coal sectors saw declines of 0.83% and 0.14%, respectively [1] Capital Flow - The net inflow of capital in the two markets reached 10.84 billion yuan, with 19 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The electronics sector had the highest net inflow, totaling 3.423 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 1.30% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector followed with a net inflow of 3.051 billion yuan and a daily increase of 1.44% [1] Retail Sector Performance - The retail trade sector increased by 1.46% with a net inflow of 629 million yuan [2] - Out of 97 stocks in the sector, 81 rose, including 4 that hit the daily limit [2] - The top three stocks by net inflow were Wenfeng Co. (164 million yuan), Youa Co. (132 million yuan), and Suhao Huihong (75 million yuan) [2] Notable Stocks in Retail Sector - Wenfeng Co. saw a daily increase of 10.00% with a turnover rate of 7.73% [2] - Youa Co. increased by 10.02% with a turnover rate of 4.94% [2] - Suhao Huihong also rose by 10.00% with a turnover rate of 2.81% [2] Stocks with Significant Outflows - The stocks with the highest net outflows included China Duty Free (1.01 billion yuan), Maoye Commercial (999.58 million yuan), and Guangbai Co. (601.46 million yuan) [2][5]

Group 1 - The public fund investment strategy shows robust growth in both scale and number, with active equity funds achieving an average return of 29.69% in 2025, outperforming major indices [2][23][27] - The top three sectors for active equity fund holdings are technology, manufacturing, and cyclical industries, indicating a strong focus on growth-oriented sectors [2][28] - The market outlook for 2026 suggests continued structural opportunities in A-shares, with technology growth remaining a key theme, while Hong Kong stocks are seen as undervalued [2][3] Group 2 - The index fund market has reached a historical high in both scale and number, with total assets amounting to 6.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 32.27% from the previous year [2][37][40] - The ETF segment dominates the index fund market, accounting for 76.10% of total assets, with a notable increase in industry-themed ETFs [2][38][40] - The performance of thematic funds, particularly in technology, has been outstanding, with technology-themed funds achieving an average return of 44.06% in 2025 [2][27][28]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:59，今日沪指涨0.24%，A股成交量827.35亿股，成交金额12491.38 亿元，比上一个交易日减少9.04%。个股方面，3675只个股上涨，其中涨停70只，1606只个股下跌，其 中跌停3只。从申万行业来看，钢铁、商贸零售、有色金属等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.64%、1.36%、 1.26%；银行、煤炭、石油石化等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为0.72%、0.50%、0.37%。 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:59） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢铁 | 1.64 | 84.41 | 23.78 | 武进不锈 | 10.02 | | 商贸零售 | 1.36 | 203.76 | -3.60 | 茂业商业 | 10.02 | | 有色金属 | 1.26 | 656.82 | 3.26 | 合金投资 | 10.01 | | 农林牧渔 | 1.13 | 188.23 | 3.22 | 神农种业 | 8.89 | | 电力设 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: On the evening of November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management may be shifting, and key figures might turn dovish in the next two weeks. Attention should be paid to the speeches of key Fed voting members and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic: The internal driving force remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has remained stable since May, indicating that the central bank may not be in a hurry to further relax policies in the short term. New and second - hand housing sales have rebounded month - on - month, land supply has increased, but land transactions remain low. The demand and production capacity of real - estate front - end and back - end physical work have declined month - on - month [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish Fed October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payroll data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. Global equity sectors and base metals like copper were under pressure. However, the New York Fed President's dovish speech on Friday boosted the December rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4. With the market sentiment lifted, short - term risk appetite may improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to allocate stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, and the Fed's expectation management may shift. Key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks. Focus on key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: The issuance of policy - based financial instruments, special bonds, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has been stable, suggesting no urgent need for short - term policy relaxation. Housing sales have rebounded, but land transactions are low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Fed's mixed signals initially pressured the December rate - cut expectation and boosted the US dollar index. The New York Fed President's speech later changed the situation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4 and look for low - price allocation opportunities in stocks, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Hotspots have limited persistence. Wait for the main line. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on incremental funds [9]. - Stock Index Options: The market is gradually dominated by long - term factors. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on option market liquidity [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term bond market disturbances exist. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policies [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel and Iron Ore: The off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the iron ore price remains resilient. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on special bond issuance, steel exports, iron production, and other factors [9]. - Coke: The cost is decreasing, and there is a strong expectation of price cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - Coking Coal: Coal mines are accumulating inventory, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - Silicon Iron: Market confidence is low, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - Manganese Silicon: Inventory pressure is high, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on cost prices and foreign quotes [9]. - Glass: Cold - repair is uncertain, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on spot sales [9]. - Soda Ash: Production is flat, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The Fed's rate - cut expectation is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [9]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on ore production and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - Zinc: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - Lead: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - Nickel: Environmental issues in Indonesian MHP production are causing price fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on macro - geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies [9]. - Stainless Steel: The rebound of nickel price has driven the recovery of the stainless - steel market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - Tin: Market sentiment has improved, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - Industrial Silicon: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and policy changes [9]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and the polysilicon price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and domestic photovoltaic policies [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand expectation has boosted the lithium price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and supply pressure persists. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [11]. - LPG: Supply is relatively tight, and the basis is at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - Asphalt: The price is oscillating around 3000. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on crude oil prices [11]. - Methanol: The shutdown progress is rapid, and the price may rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - energy and overseas shutdown dynamics [11]. - Urea: Inventory has significantly decreased, and the sentiment is bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on enterprise inventory reduction [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center is mainly adjusted widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and trade frictions [11]. - PX: The cost is average, and the supply - demand pattern is okay. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and aromatics blending for oil [11]. - PTA: The basis is strong, and the profit is slightly repaired. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes [11]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and peak - season demand [11]. - Bottle - Chip: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new - device commissioning [11]. - Propylene: The spot is strong, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [11]. - PP: The fundamental pressure remains, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Plastic: The oil price has fallen, and the maintenance support is limited. The short - term judgment is a weakly volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Styrene: The oil - blending narrative has faded, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - PVC: High inventory is suppressing the price, and it may be linked to production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - Caustic Soda: The value is low, and the supply - demand is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. - Oils and Fats: Market sentiment has stabilized, and the price may continue to be weakly bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - Protein Meal: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread is narrowing. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade frictions [11]. - Corn/Starch: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, and the price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on demand, macro - situation, and weather [11]. - Live Pigs: The live - pig spot price is weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - Natural Rubber: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations [11]. - Cotton: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the price is oscillating in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand and inventory [11]. - Sugar: In the long - term, the driving force is downward, but the cost provides short - term support. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on imports and Brazilian production [11]. - Pulp: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the futures logic for near - and far - term contracts is different. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [11]. - Offset Paper: The raw material price has fallen, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill production [11]. - Logs: The price of logs has fallen, and it is in a low - valuation area. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on shipping volume and sales volume [11].