Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Insights - The easing of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to a decline in oil tanker rates, with the VLCC market shifting from geopolitical influences to supply-demand fundamentals [3][14] - The establishment of the General Aviation and Low Altitude Economy Working Group by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) aims to enhance the development of low-altitude economy and general aviation [3][16] - The price of unmanned logistics vehicles has dropped to around 20,000 yuan, contributing to a 5.3% year-on-year growth in national social logistics total in the first five months of 2025 [3][22] Industry Highlights - The VLCC market sentiment has transitioned to supply-demand fundamentals, with tanker rates under pressure due to increased competition among shipowners and no significant rise in cargo volumes [3][14] - As of July 4, 2025, the shipping rates from Shanghai to Europe increased by 3.5% to 2,101 USD/TEU, while rates to the US West and East coasts decreased by 19.0% and 12.6%, respectively [3][15] - In the first half of 2025, 117 new international air cargo routes were opened in China, with over 233 round-trip flights added weekly [3][16][18] - The logistics sector has seen a total of 138.7 trillion yuan in social logistics, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year increase, with a slight deceleration in growth compared to previous months [3][24] High-Frequency Data Tracking - In June 2025, domestic cargo flights increased by 9.42% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 32.87% [26][33] - The express delivery sector experienced a 17.20% year-on-year increase in business volume in May 2025, with total express business volume reaching 173.2 billion pieces [56][58] - The national port cargo throughput reached 7.345 billion tons in the first five months of 2025, marking a 3.8% year-on-year growth [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls in the US postponed market bets on Fed rate cuts, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit pressure. There are concerns in the US employment market, with an increase in the proportion of permanent unemployment and continued rise in continuing jobless claims, along with slowing wage growth. The "Big and Beautiful" bill may have limited long - term economic boost but will add $3.3 trillion to the US deficit over the next 10 years [5]. - Domestic macro: China's economic fundamentals are showing resilience with an upward trend. The "anti - involution" policy combined with low prices has driven short - term rebounds in commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon. The June manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activities have improved. The "anti - involution" policy has a significant impact on domestic - demand - oriented commodities and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For major asset classes, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. There is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern will continue. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas**: The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls in the US postponed rate - cut bets, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the deficit. There are concerns in the employment market [5]. - **Domestic**: Economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti - involution" policy has led to short - term rebounds in some commodities, and the June PMI data shows improvement [5]. - **Asset Outlook**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas risks such as tariff frictions should be watched. A strategic allocation to gold is recommended [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial and Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are expected, and short - term fiscal policies will be implemented as planned [7]. - **Overseas**: Inflation expectations are flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling [7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Anti - involution competition is boosting policy expectations, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: A defensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is warming up, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Supply disturbances are increasing, and the market is showing strength, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore production is decreasing, and port inventories are slightly decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Coke**: Fundamentals are improving, and cost support is strong, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is slowly recovering, and upstream inventories are decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Policy expectations are rising, and the market is strongly rising, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the market is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Glass**: Far - month expectations are being repaired, and inventories are slightly decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: LME inventories are low, and copper prices are high, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Alumina**: The "anti - involution" policy has stimulated market sentiment, and the market has risen strongly, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Aluminum/Zinc**: Aluminum prices are oscillating strongly, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly, with short - term outlooks of volatility and volatile decline respectively [7]. - **Lead**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Nickel**: The industrial product market is improving, and nickel prices are strong in the short term, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Market sentiment is boosting, and the market is rising, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Tin**: Supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - side policy expectations are positive, and silicon prices are oscillating upwards, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by demand expectations and sentiment, lithium prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **LPG**: The market is trading based on loose fundamentals, and the PG market may be weakly volatile, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **Asphalt**: OPEC+ over - production in August has weakened asphalt futures prices, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ over - production has strengthened the weakness of high - sulfur fuel oil, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - high sulfur spread is rebounding, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang price is weakening, and methanol is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Urea**: The domestic supply - demand situation is difficult to change, and urea may oscillate in the short term, relying on exports [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The basis is stable, and plants are restarting, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - **PX**: Crude oil is stable, and PX is oscillating strongly, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, and the cost of PX is strong, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The basis is falling, and processing fees are rising, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance is starting, and processing fees have bottomed out, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **PP**: Important meetings have boosted market expectations, and PP is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Plastic**: The "anti - involution" policy has slightly boosted the market, and plastic is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Styrene**: There is a lack of driving factors, and styrene is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **PVC**: Low valuation and weak supply - demand, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market is weakly stable, and caustic soda is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The market was weakly volatile yesterday, and palm oil is more resistant to decline, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure dominates, and the spot market is leading the decline, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market sentiment is poor, and the market is in a weak adjustment, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Rubber**: After a decline, it has stabilized, with limited downward space in the short term, and a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak raw materials have dragged down the market, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Pulp**: The market is in a stalemate, and the downward trend has not been confirmed to end, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are in a new round of oscillation, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Sugar**: There is a lack of positive factors, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Timber**: Spot digestion is limited, and the market is still weakly operating in the short term, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9].

近期欧线报价情况: 目前下游正预定7月中 (week28-29) 的舱位。 7月上 (week27-28) 运价落地在3380美金左右 (折盘2350点) 。 7月下船司报价总体以持稳为主，其中MSK平开2950美金; 当前报价区间较宽,在2950-3850美金之间，均值3500美金（折盘2500 点）。 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/7/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਨ੍ਹੇ | | 昨日收费代 | 涨跌 (%) | 直差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2508 EC2510 | | 1888.5 1350.0 | 2.09 0.60 | રૂ રેત્તે ર 908.0 | | 21083 7 ટેટર | 34521 30278 | -1857 -346 | | | EC2512 | | 1523.9 | 0.72 | 734.1 | | 1166 | ਦ849 | -197 | | | EC2602 | | 1323 ...

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者Eastland 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 作者｜Eastland 头图｜视觉中国 2025年6月25日，中远海控（ SH：601919 ）实施了每10股10.3元的年报分红。加上2024年10月的中 报分红（每10股5.2元）。股东1年内的现金回报达10.29%（ 按6月25日收盘价 ）。 最近1年同样实施了两次现金分红的贵州茅台（ SH：600519 ），股息率仅3.63%（ 按6月25日收盘 价 ）。 中远海控股息率是茅台的2.8倍！ 中远海控估值不高（ 动态市盈率仅5.1倍 ），因为投资人对这个"周期之王"有所担忧，主要包含三 点： 一是贸易战导致无货可运； 二是运力扩张导致运价崩盘； 三是当运价跌成本不跌，利润缩水甚至由盈转亏。 过往六年，经历了疫情、关税战，中远海控业绩有高峰有低谷，但年均净利润达481.3亿，相当于茅 台过往六年净利润的80%。说明以上担心的理由并不充分。 运量刚性强 说起航运公司，许多人脑子里浮现这样一个"时钟"： 第一个十五分钟，货多得运不过来，运价暴涨； 第二个十五分钟，运 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for European routes increased by 6.3% to 2258.04 points as of July 7, 2025 [1] - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.949 million tons from June 30 to July 6, 2025, a decrease of 3.627 million tons compared to the previous period [1] - A coal mine in Linfen, Shanxi Province resumed production on July 5, with a certified capacity of 900,000 tons, after being offline for 15 days, affecting total coal output by over 40,000 tons [1] Group 2 - In June, domestic soybean crushing volume reached a historical high of 10.11 million tons, with expectations of maintaining high operating rates in July at around 9.5 million tons [1] - As of July 3, 2025, U.S. soybean export inspections amounted to 389,364 tons, corn at 1,491,062 tons, and wheat at 436,628 tons [2] - Brazil's first corn harvest rate reached 97.2% as of July 5, 2025, while the second corn harvest rate was at 27.7% [2] - The U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rating remained at 66%, while corn's good-to-excellent rating improved to 74% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong cash returns and valuation of China COSCO Shipping Holdings (中远海控), emphasizing its resilience in the shipping industry despite concerns over trade wars and capacity expansion [1][3][4]. Group 1: Dividend and Returns - China COSCO Shipping Holdings implemented a dividend of 10.3 yuan per 10 shares for the annual report and 5.2 yuan for the interim report, resulting in a cash return of 10.29% for shareholders within a year [1]. - In contrast, Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) offered a lower dividend yield of 3.63% during the same period [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Concerns - The dividend yield of China COSCO Shipping Holdings is 2.8 times that of Kweichow Moutai, with a low dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 times [3]. - Investor concerns stem from three main issues: trade wars leading to reduced cargo, capacity expansion causing freight rate collapse, and profit shrinkage when freight rates drop without a corresponding decrease in costs [3]. Group 3: Performance Analysis - Over the past six years, China COSCO Shipping Holdings has experienced fluctuations in performance due to the pandemic and trade wars, yet maintained an average annual net profit of 48.13 billion yuan, which is 80% of Kweichow Moutai's net profit over the same period [4]. - The shipping volume has shown stability, with only a 0.78% difference between 2019 and 2024, indicating that concerns about cargo availability may be overstated [5]. Group 4: Shipping Routes and Trends - The article discusses changes in major shipping routes, noting that the trans-Pacific route saw an increase in volume during the pandemic, while the Eurasian route has declined due to reduced purchasing power in Europe [6][9]. - The Asia-Pacific routes have shown significant growth, with a volume increase of 11.2% from 2019 to 2024, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [7][10]. Group 5: Revenue and Pricing Dynamics - Revenue from the trans-Pacific route has increased significantly despite fluctuations in shipping volume, with a revenue index of 210 in 2021 compared to 2019 [12]. - The Eurasian route has also seen a rise in revenue despite a decrease in shipping volume, with a revenue increase of 60% compared to 2019 [13]. Group 6: Cost and Profitability - The relationship between costs and prices is crucial, with shipping costs rising at a slower rate than freight rates, allowing shipping companies to maintain profitability [20][24]. - In 2024, the total cost as a percentage of revenue decreased to 65%, indicating improved profitability for China COSCO Shipping Holdings [27]. Group 7: Future Prospects - China COSCO Shipping Holdings is in discussions to acquire a stake in ports owned by Li Ka-shing, which could significantly enhance its revenue and operational capacity [32][40]. - The potential acquisition of a 25% stake in Li Ka-shing's ports could double the revenue and overseas throughput of China COSCO Shipping Holdings [40].

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 55,000 million and 59,000 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a decrease of 63,034 million to 67,034 million yuan compared to the same period last year, which is a year-on-year decline of 51.66% to 54.93% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 54,600 million and 58,600 million yuan, a decrease of 44,184 million to 48,184 million yuan compared to the previous year, reflecting a decline of 42.99% to 46.88% [2] Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the total profit was 140,427 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 122,034 million yuan and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 102,784 million yuan [1] - The earnings per share for the previous year were 0.2532 yuan [1] Reasons for Performance Decline - The international refined oil transportation market has been affected by multiple factors, leading to a significant drop in freight rates year-on-year. For instance, the average Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) for the MR TC7 route (Singapore to East Coast Australia) was approximately 37,717 USD/day in the first half of 2024, while it is expected to drop to about 19,101 USD/day in the first half of 2025, marking a decline of 49.36% [1]

Group 1 - MSCI Nordic Countries Index increased by 0.1%, closing at 354.09 points, marking the highest close since June 27 [1] - The Nordic industrial sector led the gains in the index [1] Group 2 - Shipping giant Maersk's Class B shares rose by 2.98%, outperforming other constituents [1]

记者从天津国际贸易与航运服务中心获悉，2025年第26周（6月30日-7月4日），中国北方内外贸海运价格的风向标——天津航运指数波动走低并最终收于 1082.46点，相比6月27日（第26周最后一个发布日）累计下跌25.11点，累计下跌2.31%。 天津国际贸易与航运服务中心供图 沿海集装箱运价指数稳中略降。其中，进港指数微弱走低，出港运价指数继续下跌，累计跌幅3.76%。最终，TDI收于1047.79点，相比6月27日累计下跌 19.56点，累计跌幅1.83%。 天津航运指数由天津国际贸易与航运服务中心发布，发布时间为每个工作日，指数样本范围覆盖27条连接天津港、青岛港、曹妃甸港与世界港口的国际航 线，也包括天津港和中国主要港口的内贸海运航线。该指数以2010年7月16日为基期，基期指数为1000点。 （文章来源：新华财经） 天津航运指数（TSI）综合反映天津及北方地区航运市场价格波动情况，是由北方国际集装箱运价指数（TCI）、北方国际干散货运价指数（TBI）、沿海集 装箱运价指数（TDI）通过计算而得的综合性指数。 分类别看，北方国际集装箱运价指数明显回落。其中，美国航线市场运力供过于求态势较为明显，本周 ...