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银河期货原油期货早报-20250624
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 04:23
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Israel - Iran cease - fire news. Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as the geopolitical risk premium fades. Different energy and chemical products will gradually return to fundamental - driven pricing, with varying trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][2]. - For most products, short - term market trends are influenced by geopolitical factors, and mid - to long - term trends are determined by supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and cost factors. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 closed at $68.51, down $5.33 (-7.22%); Brent2508 closed at $71.48, down $5.53 (-7.18%); SC2508 closed at 537.7 yuan/barrel after night trading [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market prices in response to the cooling of geopolitical conflicts. If geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil will return to fundamental pricing, with short - term trading on third - quarter peak - season expectations and long - term trading on the contradiction of increased supply - demand surplus under OPEC+ continuous production increases. The expected trading range for Brent in the third quarter is $60 - 72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, with Brent trading in the range of $66 - 72 per barrel. Pay attention to the certainty of the Middle - East cease - fire [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3737 points (-1.16%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3574 points (-1.27%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the sharp drop in oil prices, the upward cost - driven factor for asphalt disappeared. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and inventory is lower than the same period. The price of the BU main contract is expected to range from 3600 to 3750 [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak and volatile. The spread between asphalt and crude oil will rebound [5]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4538 (-0.42%) at night; PG2508 closed at 4522 (-0.18%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in oil prices, the supply of LPG decreased slightly last week, and the international shipping volume decreased. The combustion - end demand is expected to be weak, while the chemical - sector demand is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price is expected to decline [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of LPG is expected to be weak [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 3341 (-0.83%) at night; LU08 closed at 3988 (-0.05%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil trading remains active, with high - sulfur cracking supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power - generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported, while low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be observed for further trends [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Consider taking profit on the positive spread of FU9 - 1 [11]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas inventory accumulation was lower than expected. Production increased slightly, demand was at a historical high, and LNG export volume was 14.2 bcf/d. European natural gas prices decreased due to the cease - fire news. The price of natural gas is expected to rise [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at dips and be bullish on TTF [13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 7076 (-0.70%) at night. Spot prices increased, and PXN was $264/ton, up $8/ton [13][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Many PX plants have maintenance plans or production cuts, and the Asian PX operating rate has declined recently, resulting in tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4986 (-0.52%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some PTA plants have reduced production or shut down, and the operating rate has decreased. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but profits have been compressed. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [15][16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4454 (-1.04%) at night. Spot basis and prices changed [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic and foreign plants have restarted or increased production, and the operating rate has increased significantly. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but terminal demand has weakened. The supply - demand pattern in June and July is still tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [17][18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6796 (-0.44%) at night. Spot prices increased, but downstream was mostly waiting and watching [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply has increased and demand has decreased recently, but production and sales are stable, and processing fees have increased. Some large factories have tight supply, and processing fees are expected to be strongly supported. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Short PTA and long PF for spreads [19][20]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 6172 (-0.58%) at night. Spot market trading was okay [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some bottle - chip plants have increased production, and inventory has risen. Some plants have plans to reduce production or shut down. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [20][21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 closed at 7486 (-1.28%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure - benzene prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply has increased, and downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low. The price is mainly guided by cost factors and is expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fluctuated, and PP prices were relatively stable [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: Previous price increases were affected by Middle - East geopolitics. After the cease - fire news, oil prices dropped, and plastic PP is expected to open lower. In the medium term, supply - demand is expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Open lower. Short - sell on rallies, paying attention to the certainty of the cease - fire and oil prices [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Market Review**: PVC prices were slightly adjusted, and trading was light [27]. - **PVC Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still dragged down by the real - estate market. The medium - to long - term supply - demand is in surplus, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [29]. - **Caustic Soda Logic Analysis**: The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be weak. Demand is expected to have no significant increase in the medium term, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell caustic soda and PVC. Hold the 8 - 10 reverse spread for caustic soda [31][32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass 09 contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton (+0.20%) at night. Spot prices changed slightly [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda - ash 09 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton (-0.3%) at night. Spot prices fluctuated slightly [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Inventory has increased, and costs have decreased. A short - selling strategy is recommended [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell soda ash. Sell out - of - the - money call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1711 (-2%). Spot prices declined, and trading was weak [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is declining. International prices are strong, and export orders have increased, but the market is still expected to be weak in the short term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options on rebounds [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2469 (-1.71%). Spot prices in different regions varied [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply has tightened, but domestic supply is loose. Downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the short term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options [39]. Logs - **Market Review**: Log prices in some regions increased slightly, and the main contract price rose [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the market faces challenges in the medium - to long - term. The futures market is supported by delivery rules. [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [42]. Double - Coated Paper - **Market Review**: The double - coated paper market was stable with some declines. Trading was general [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Industry profitability is low, production has decreased, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is weak, and pulp prices provide limited support [43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices declined slightly, and trading was weak [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may be reduced, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period [45]. Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures declined. Spot prices of different types of pulp changed [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic paper production has increased, and Taiwan's paper production has declined. The price of the SP main contract is expected to be affected negatively [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP 09 contract. Hold the 5*SP2509 - 2*NR2509 spread [47]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09 closed at 13835 (-0.82%); NR08 closed at 12020 (+0.08%). Spot prices of different types of rubber changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Vietnam's rubber industry faces challenges from EU regulations. Domestic inventory shows different trends. [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the RU09 contract. Hold short positions on the NR08 contract. Adjust stop - loss levels [50]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR08 closed at 11440 (-0.13%). Spot prices of butadiene rubber and related products changed [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene rubber inventory is increasing. Some tire projects are being invested [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell a small amount of the BR08 contract. Hold the BR2508 - NR2508 spread. Sell the BR2508 call 12200 contract [52][53].
广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250617
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 03:24
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - In the context of expected supply increase and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold the short position at 14,000 and monitor the raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [2]. Industrial Silicon - In June, industrial silicon still faces a weak fundamental situation of oversupply, and the price remains under pressure. Recently, the rebound in coal prices brings an expectation of rising raw material prices, which supports the price, and the price may fluctuate at a low level [4]. Polysilicon - The fundamentals have not significantly improved, and the atmosphere at the Shanghai PV exhibition is bearish. However, due to the low price, hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the pressure level around 35,000 yuan/ton. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the excess pattern is obvious, and there will be further profit - reduction. After the photovoltaic rush - installation, the growth of photovoltaic capacity has slowed down, and the overall demand has not increased significantly. After the maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. - For glass, it still faces over - supply pressure in the future, and the industry needs capacity clearance. The 09 contract fluctuates around 1000 points, and a short - term bearish strategy can be considered [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Price and Spread - The price of Yunnan Guofu all - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 13,900 yuan/ton. The all - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 140%. The Thai standard mixed rubber quote remained at 13,750 yuan/ton. The non - standard price difference decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton, a decline of 28%. The FOB mid - price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 0.40 Thai baht/kg to 47.45 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85%. The FOB mid - price of glue in the international market remained at 56.75 yuan/ton. The price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna increased by 400 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.28%. The price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 400 yuan/ton to 13,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.15%. The mainstream market price of raw materials in Hainan remained at 12,400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market price of imported rubber raw materials in Hainan remained at 9,000 yuan/ton [2]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 850 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.8%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 72 yuan/ton, a decline of 18.18%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to 915 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.81% [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's production decreased by 435,000 tons to 1.057 million tons, a decline of 29.16%. Indonesia's production decreased by 15,200 tons to 194,100 tons, a decline of 7.26%. India's production decreased by 7,600 tons to 45,400 tons, a decline of 14.34%. China's production increased by 42,300 tons to 58,100 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires increased by 4.12 percentage points to 77.98%, and the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 2.23 percentage points to 61.24%. In April, the domestic tire production decreased by 5.444 million pieces to 102.002 million pieces, a decline of 5.07%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in April decreased by 490,000 pieces to 5.739 million pieces, a decline of 7.87%. The total import volume of natural rubber in April decreased by 70,900 tons to 523,200 tons, a decline of 11.93%. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in May decreased by 83,000 tons to 607,000 tons, a decline of 12.03% [2]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) decreased by 4,100 tons to 1,011,111 tons, a decline of 0.67%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 13,003 tons to 34,876 tons, an increase of 59.45%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao increased by 1.14 percentage points to 3.34%, and the outbound rate increased by 1.44 percentage points to 4.83%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao increased by 0.82 percentage points to 7.76%, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 7.18% [2]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained at 8,150 yuan/ton, and the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 110 yuan/ton to 805 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.83%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 8,700 yuan/ton, and the basis (based on SI4210) increased by 110 yuan/ton to 555 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.72%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon remained at 7,600 yuan/ton, and the basis (in Xinjiang) increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1,055 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.64% [4]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 7,260 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton, an increase of 98.84%. The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.29%. The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 50%. The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 175%. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.09% [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 6,900 tons to 307,700 tons, an increase of 2.29%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 4,400 tons to 163,100 tons, a decline of 2.6%. Yunnan's production decreased by 3,400 tons to 10,000 tons, a decline of 25.43%. Sichuan's production increased by 12,400 tons to 23,700 tons, an increase of 109.47%. Inner Mongolia's production increased by 2,100 tons to 46,100 tons, an increase of 4.78%. Ningxia's production increased by 3,500 tons to 23,500 tons, an increase of 17.5%. The production of 97 - grade silicon decreased by 7,200 tons to 4,800 tons, a decline of 60%. The production of recycled silicon increased by 500 tons to 16,500 tons, an increase of 3.12%. The production of silicone DMC in May increased by 11,200 tons to 184,000 tons, an increase of 6.48%. The production of polysilicon in May increased by 700 tons to 96,100 tons, an increase of 0.73%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy in May decreased by 400 tons to 60,600 tons, a decline of 0.66%. The export volume of industrial silicon in April increased by 100 tons to 6,050 tons, an increase of 1.64% [4]. Inventory Changes - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 410 tons to 18,670 tons, a decline of 2.15%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan increased by 70 tons to 2,580 tons, an increase of 2.79%. The inventory in Sichuan increased by 10 tons to 2,310 tons, an increase of 0.44%. The social inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 57,200 tons, a decline of 2.56%. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 550 tons to 28,410 tons, a decline of 1.89%. The non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 950 tons to 28,790 tons, a decline of 3.2% [4]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained at 35,500 yuan/ton, the average price of P - type cauliflower material remained at 29,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained at 33,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 625 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decline of 34.63%. The cauliflower material basis (average price) decreased by 625 yuan/ton to 7,180 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.01%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210mm remained at 1.27 yuan/piece, the average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210R remained at 1.06 yuan/piece, the average price of single - crystal Topcon battery wafers of 210R remained at 0.268 yuan/piece, the average price of single - crystal PERC battery wafers of 182mm remained at 0.268 yuan/piece, the average price of Topcon components of 210mm (distributed) remained at 0.699 yuan/watt, and the average price of N - type 210mm components for centralized projects remained at 0.686 yuan/watt [5]. - The PS2506 contract price increased by 625 yuan/ton to 34,320 yuan/ton. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 720 yuan/ton to 1,690 yuan/ton, a decline of 29.88%. The PS2507 - PS2508 spread increased by 290 yuan/ton to 1,215 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.35%. The PS2508 - PS2509 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 595 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.46%. The PS2509 - PS2510 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 265 yuan/ton, a decline of 18.46%. The PS2510 - PS2511 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 370 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.46%. The PS2511 - PS2512 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 1,605 yuan/ton, a decline of 18.46% [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.06 GW to 13.1 GW, an increase of 0.46%. The weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.18 tons to 2.38 tons, an increase of 8.18%. The monthly polysilicon production in May increased by 0.07 tons to 9.61 tons, an increase of 0.73%. The polysilicon import volume in April decreased by 0.02 tons to 0.29 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The polysilicon export volume in April decreased by 0.02 tons to 0.2 tons, a decline of 10.4%. The net export volume of polysilicon in April remained at - 0.09 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 27.5 tons, an increase of 2.23%. The silicon wafer inventory decreased by 0.68 GW to 19.34 GW, a decline of 3.4%. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained at 2,600 tons [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - The glass price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,130 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.88%. The price in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,230 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.38%. The price in Central China remained at 1,070 yuan/ton. The price in South China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,290 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.53%. The glass 2505 contract price decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1,077 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.37%. The glass 2509 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 976 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%. The 05 basis decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 10.17% [6]. - The soda ash price in North China remained at 1,400 yuan/ton, the price in East China remained at 1,350 yuan/ton, the price in Central China remained at 1,350 yuan/ton, and the price in Northwest China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,030 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.9%. The soda ash 2505 contract price decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,204 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.66%. The soda ash 2509 contract price decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 1,156 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.57%. The 05 basis increased by 8 yuan/ton to 196 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.26% [6]. Supply and Demand Data - The soda ash operating rate increased by 6.33 percentage points to 84.9%, and the weekly production increased by 5,510 tons to 74,010 tons, an increase of 8.04%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 100 tons to 15,570 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 1,000 tons to 98,990 tons, a decline of 1%. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 1 yuan to 20 yuan, a decline of 4.76% [6]. Inventory Changes - The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 192,300 weight - boxes to 6,968,500 weight - boxes, an increase of 2.84%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 62,000 tons to 168,630 tons, an increase of 3.82%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 32,710 tons, a decline of 5.87%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 2.9 days to 21 days, an increase of 15.91% [6]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 2.99 percentage points to - 18.73%, the year - on - year growth rate of construction area decreased by 7.56 percentage points to - 33.33%, the year - on - year growth rate of completion area increased by 15.67 percentage points to - 11.68%, and the year
能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20250609
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 00:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market is expected to be volatile. The fundamental trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand remains unchanged. As the seasonal rubber - tapping season arrives in domestic and foreign production areas, raw material prices are likely to fall, with insufficient cost - side support. Under the pressure of increased supply, there are no signs of improvement on the demand side, and the market lacks a strong upward driving force. After the previous sharp decline in rubber prices, the prices may fluctuate during the upward repair process due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - **Cote d'Ivoire**: In the first five months of 2025, rubber exports totaled 629,672 tons, a 7.9% increase from the same period in 2024. In May, exports increased by 23.2% year - on - year but decreased by 9.6% month - on - month [5]. - **India**: Adequate monsoon rains in Kerala may boost natural rubber production by 5% - 10% this fiscal year. However, the decline in international block rubber prices may affect domestic prices [5]. - **Thailand**: The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) is accelerating the registration of 20 million rai of rubber plantations to comply with the EUDR regulations. Thailand has been classified as a low - risk country, which will enhance the competitiveness of its rubber exports to the EU [6][7]. 3.2 Price - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber markets rebounded slightly, with the domestic market having a larger increase. On June 6, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 were 13,650 yuan/ton, 11,790 yuan/ton, 159.90 cents/kg, and 304.10 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 1.83%, 2.12%, 0.19%, and 1.37% [10][11]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: On June 6, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber - RU was 0 yuan/ton, with a 100% increase compared to the previous period and a 100% increase year - on - year [15]. - **Spread**: The 09 - 01 spread was - 890 yuan/ton, with a - 11.95% change compared to the previous period and a 26.14% increase year - on - year [15]. 3.4 Other Spreads - **Cross - variety/cross - market spreads**: On June 6, 2025, the spreads of RU09 - NR09, RU09 - BR09, NR09 - TSR20 09, and RU09 - Tokyo RSS3 09 were 1,860 yuan/ton, 2,575 yuan/ton, 301.98 yuan/ton, and - 1,447.06 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of RU - BR, RU - JPX RSS3, and NR - SGX TSR20 increased [16][17]. - **Non - standard basis**: The import rubber market's offer center of gravity moved down this week. The spot price of domestic natural rubber followed the futures market and weakened. The downstream demand did not improve significantly [18]. - **Light - dark color spread**: The difference between whole - milk rubber and Thai mixed rubber increased, while the difference between 3L rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased [20]. 3.5 Substitute Prices - On June 6, 2025, the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in the Chinese mainstream market were 11,600 yuan/ton and 11,850 yuan/ton respectively. The difference between synthetic rubber and RU decreased as synthetic rubber fluctuated slightly and RU increased more [30]. 3.6 Fund Trends - On June 6, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of the RU main contract was 8.89, at a low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of the NR main contract was 17.69, showing a decline from a high level, and the settled funds also declined from a high level [31][32]. 3.7 Fundamental Data 3.7.1 Supply - **Weather**: In Thailand, the temperature in the northeast was slightly lower this week, and rainfall was higher compared to the same period. Yunnan and Hainan in China are gradually entering the rainy season [35][36]. - **Raw material prices**: On June 6, 2025, the prices of cup lumps, latex, smoked sheets, and raw sheets in Thailand were 44.90 baht/kg, 56.00 baht/kg, 65.90 baht/kg, and 62.26 baht/kg respectively. The prices of Hainan and Yunnan latex were 12,400 yuan/ton and 12,900 yuan/ton respectively. Due to more rain disturbances in production areas and the decline of the spot - futures market, raw material prices continued to fall [37]. - **Raw material spreads**: The Thailand cup - latex spread fluctuated greatly, and the spread between Hainan latex entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk rubber factory increased [41]. - **Upstream processing profits**: On June 6, 2025, the production profits of Thai standard rubber, concentrated latex, smoked sheets, and Hainan concentrated latex were 177 yuan/ton, 1,820 yuan/ton, - 181.72 yuan/ton, and 684.42 yuan/ton respectively. Processing profits increased significantly due to the sharp decline in raw materials [44][46]. - **Rubber imports**: In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) decreased by 12% month - on - month and increased by 42% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [47][48]. 3.7.2 Demand - **Tire capacity utilization and inventory**: On June 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 55.65% and 64.05% respectively, showing a decline. The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 41.87 days and 45.84 days respectively. The tire inventory decreased marginally [49][50]. - **Tire exports and heavy - truck sales**: In April 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased seasonally month - on - month but performed well year - on - year. Heavy - truck sales decreased month - on - month and increased slightly year - on - year. Passenger car sales decreased month - on - month and were at a high level year - on - year [52][53]. 3.7.3 Inventory - **Spot inventory**: On May 30, 2025, the inventories of dark - colored rubber, light - colored rubber, and the total social inventory of natural rubber in China were 76.35 tons, 51.70 tons, and 128.05 tons respectively, showing a downward trend [54][56]. - **Futures inventory**: On June 6, 2025, the futures inventories of natural rubber in the SHFE and INE were 19.35 tons and 2.19 tons respectively, with a decrease of 2.61% and an increase of 23.99% compared to the previous week [57]. 3.8 Operation Suggestions - The rubber market is expected to be volatile. The fundamental situation of increasing supply and weakening demand remains unchanged. The cost - side support is insufficient, and the demand shows no signs of improvement. After the previous sharp decline, the rubber price may fluctuate during the upward repair process [66].
【农林牧渔】政策驱动去库降重,猪价短期压力显现——光大证券农林牧渔行业周报(20250602-20250608)(李晓渊)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-08 13:28
Group 1: Pork Market - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China decreased to 14.05 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 2.90% [2] - The average price of 15 kg piglets fell to 34.51 yuan/kg, down 2.38% week-on-week [2] - The market sentiment is weak due to sluggish post-holiday consumption demand and low demand for large pigs, leading to a continued strong supply and weak demand scenario [2] Group 2: Poultry Market - The price of white feather broilers is 7.32 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week, while chick prices are at 2.84 yuan/bird, a decrease of 1.05% [3] - The increase in frozen chicken inventory has reduced the purchasing enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises, resulting in a weak price for broilers [3] - The decline in broiler prices, combined with high summer temperatures, has led to a slowdown in orders for chicks [3] Group 3: Agricultural Products - The average spot price of corn increased to 2387.84 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.34% week-on-week, while soybean meal and wheat prices fell by 1.50% and 0.86%, respectively [4] - The supply of corn is tight in North China, but the new wheat harvest is putting pressure on the corn market [4] - The soybean meal supply is ample due to high production expectations from Argentina and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [4] Group 4: Natural Rubber Market - The domestic natural rubber futures price is 13695 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.05% [5] - Supply disruptions due to weather conditions are expected to recover, but the overall market sentiment remains weak due to limited demand growth [5] - The production capacity utilization rate of tire companies is lower than the same period last year, indicating weak demand [5]
银河期货原油期货早报-20250604
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 03:21
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: After OPEC's production increase in July, the previous negative factors were exhausted. With the threat of wildfires in Canada and rising geopolitical risks, combined with short - term macro - stability, oil prices are strong in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to relatively weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited. The short - term Brent price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range moving up to $65 - 68 per barrel, and the medium - term range is expected to be $63 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - Asphalt: The overall supply - demand pattern is loose. Although the cost of crude oil has increased, the market's acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has a certain upward trend [3][4]. - Liquefied gas: In the international market, the CP price has increased, while the FEI has decreased. In the domestic market, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased the pressure on the market, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. The supply from Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East is expected to decline, while the demand for seasonal power generation is supportive. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [9][11]. - Natural gas: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - PX: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [14][16]. - PTA: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [17][18]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [20][21]. - Short - fiber: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [22][23]. - Bottle - chip: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [24][26]. - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [26][27]. - PVC: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, with supply increasing and demand affected by real estate and export uncertainties [29][30]. - Caustic soda: The 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish. Although there is still some support in the short - term, the upward driving force for the spot price is weakening [30][31]. - Plastic and PP: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [32][34]. - Glass: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34][37]. - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [38][40]. - Urea: The daily output is at a high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as international price changes, compound fertilizer production, and export policies. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [41][42]. - Methanol: The international supply is still high, the domestic supply is loose, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. The price is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds [43][45]. - Log: The downstream market is still sluggish, and the long - term market faces challenges from weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory. However, the large scale difference in delivery has a certain supporting effect on the current price [45][48]. - Double - offset paper: The market was weak in May, and in June, short - term technical rebounds may occur, but long - term risks from over - capacity and weak demand need to be vigilant [48][49]. - Corrugated paper: In May, the demand showed structural improvement, but in June, attention should be paid to factors such as the implementation of price - increase policies, export order sustainability, and waste - paper price fluctuations [50]. - Natural rubber: The domestic inventory is still at a high level, and the production index of French rubber machinery has decreased. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [51][54]. - Pulp: The domestic and foreign paper - making industries have shown signs of production reduction, which is negative for the SP single - side. The short - term trading strategy is to try to go long on a small scale [54][56]. - Butadiene rubber: The short - term supply contraction has led to price increases, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the expansion of downstream ABS capacity. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [58][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 contract settled at $63.41, up $0.89 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%; Brent2508 contract settled at $65.63, up $1.00 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.55%. SC main contract 2507 rose 12.4 to 465 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it rose 4.0 to 469 yuan per barrel [1]. - Related News: The US has asked countries to submit their best trade negotiation plans by Wednesday. The US labor market is showing signs of softening, with an increase in job vacancies but also a large increase in layoffs [1]. - Logic Analysis: After OPEC's production increase, the previous negative factors were exhausted. Geopolitical risks have risen, and the macro - situation is stable in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are expected to weaken; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2507 closed at 3524 points (+1.21%) in the night session, and BU2509 closed at 3495 points (+1.13%) in the night session. The spot price in Shandong on June 3 was 3470 - 3870 yuan, in the East China region was 3550 - 3620 yuan, and in the South China region was 3360 - 3450 yuan [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong rose by 25 yuan per ton. The demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has increased [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is mainly stable. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [6]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2507 closed at 4075 (+0.27%) in the night session, and PG2508 closed at 4004 (+0.18%) in the night session. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong is given [6]. - Related News: The market in South China is generally stable, with some hidden discounts. The market in Shandong is stable with some small increases, and the ether - post - carbon - four market is expected to rise steadily [7]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the CP price has increased, and the FEI has decreased. Domestically, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased market pressure, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 contract closed at 2943 (-0.03%) in the night session, and LU07 closed at 3535 (+1.61%) in the night session. The Singapore paper - futures market's month - to - month spreads are given [9]. - Related News: Russia's exports of some oil products are expected to change in June, and Nigeria's Dangote refinery will import a large amount of US WTI crude oil in July [9]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [11]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread when the price is low [12]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH contract closed at 3.7 (+0.76%), TTF closed at 35.848 (+2.38%), and JKM closed at 12.345 (+1.69%) [12]. - Logic Analysis: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH on dips; TTF is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6524 (-1.42%) during the day and 6618 (+1.44%) in the night session. The spot price, MOPJ valuation, and PXN spread are given [14]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [15]. - Logic Analysis: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [16]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4628 (-1.53%) during the day and 4706 (+1.69%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [17]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and a PTA device has restarted [15][18]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4306 (-0.99%) during the day and 4319 (+0.30%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [18][19]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and some EG devices have restarted or are under maintenance [20]. - Logic Analysis: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [21]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; basis positive spread; sell call options [22]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6338 (-0.72%) during the day and 6426 (+1.39%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions is given [22]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [23]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [23]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; short PTA and long PF; options are on hold [24]. Bottle - chip - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 5912 (-1.17%) during the day and 5958 (+0.78%) in the night session. The spot price of polyester bottle - chips is given [24]. - Related News: The export quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories are mostly stable [25]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [26]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation consolidation; options are on hold; sell call options [26]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7018 (-1.71%) during the day and 7133 (+1.64%) in the night session. The spot price and basis in different periods are given [26]. - Related News: The inventory in the East China main port of styrene has increased, and the upstream pure - benzene port inventory has also increased [26]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [27]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation weakly; options are on hold; sell call options [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot price of PVC has slightly decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda in different regions has changed [29]. - Related News: The price of caustic soda in some factories has changed, and the Indian BIS hearing has no news yet [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, and caustic soda's 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go short on caustic soda at high prices and hold short positions on PVC; for arbitrage, arrange a 7 - 9 reverse spread when the spot weakens; options are on hold [32]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: The spot price of LLDPE in different regions has changed, and the spot price of PP in different regions has decreased [32]. - Related News: The maintenance ratio of PE and PP has decreased [33]. - Logic Analysis: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [34]. - Trading Strategy: Short - and medium - term weakness, hold short positions; options are on hold; arbitrage is on hold [34]. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures 09 - contract closed at 954 (-2.85%) during the day and 965 (+1.15%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [34][35]. - Related News: The China May Caixin Manufacturing PMI has contracted, and the price of the domestic float - glass market has decreased slightly. A glass production line has restarted [36]. - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [37]. - Trading Strategy: Price oscillates weakly [38]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda - ash futures 09 - contract closed at 1185 (-1.2%) during the day and 1213 (+2.4%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [38]. - Related News: A soda - ash device has resumed operation, and the domestic soda - ash market is adjusting weakly [39][40]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [40]. - Trading Strategy: Bearish judgment, gradual
能源化工周报:油价宽幅波动,化工震荡走弱-20250526
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 07:01
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price fluctuates widely due to the intersection of production increase and geopolitical factors, and the chemical industry shows a weakening trend in a volatile manner [1]. - The international crude oil supply - demand is likely to become looser in the medium - to - long - term, and the short - term oil price is bearish. The polyester downstream has improved significantly, with PTA showing a slightly stronger trend in a volatile manner and ethylene glycol slightly strengthening. The styrene cost is expected to collapse and trend weakly. The LPG price is expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner in the short term. The BR price is expected to decline in a volatile manner in the medium - to - long - term. The asphalt fundamentals are better than those of crude oil, and it is more resistant to decline and has lower volatility. The container shipping index for European routes is recommended for short - term observation [7][10][11][12][13][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoint Strategy Summary - **Price Monitoring**: The report provides the closing price monitoring data of various energy and chemical products, including the current value, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, and weekly price trends of products such as the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, various types of crude oil, natural rubber, and chemical products [6]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: Different investment and trading views are given for various energy and chemical products. For example, the short - term view on crude oil is bearish, with a suggestion to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading. For natural rubber, the short - term view is bearish, with a suggestion to wait and see for single - side trading and to short the 1 - 9 spread when it is above 1000 for arbitrage trading [7][9]. 3.2 Crude Oil (SC) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil production. OPEC+ members are discussing further production increases, and Kazakhstan may exceed its production plan [8][21]. - **Demand**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to global crude oil demand forecasts, with a general trend of weakening [8][21]. - **Inventory**: The US EIA crude oil inventory and related product inventories have different changes, with the commercial inventory increasing and the Cushing inventory decreasing [8][21][106]. - **Policy and Geopolitics**: OPEC+ production policies, US tariff policies, and geopolitical events such as the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and Israeli threats to attack Iranian nuclear facilities all affect the oil price [8][21]. - **Market Performance**: The oil price fluctuates widely. As of May 23, the prices of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil all show a downward trend on a weekly basis [24]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The short - term oil price is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include OPEC+ production cut policy changes, Middle East geopolitical situation disturbances, and US policy uncertainties [8][21]. 3.3 Natural Rubber (RU&NR) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The supply in domestic and overseas production areas is affected by weather and other factors. The raw material acquisition price in Yunnan maintains a high - level shock, and the raw material output in Hainan increases but is still lower than last year's level. In Thailand, the new rubber output is low at the beginning of the tapping season, and in Vietnam, the fresh rubber supply is restricted by rainfall [9]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises shows a mixed trend, and most enterprises have general sales and inventory pressure, with a potential decrease in the capacity utilization rate next week [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber in China has decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts of RU and 20 - number rubber have also decreased [9]. - **Other Factors**: The profit, basis, spread, and macro - policy all have an impact on the rubber price [9]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The short - term view is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to short the 1 - 9 spread when it is above 1000 for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include production area weather disturbances, reserve policy changes, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [9]. 3.4 Polyester (TA&EG&PF) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The spread between PX and naphtha and MX has increased, prompting some PX producers to seek MX supplies, and the net profit of the reforming unit has recovered [10]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester has recovered, the polyester load remains at a high level of 94%, and the polyester inventory has been significantly reduced [10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has declined, and PTA has entered a de - stocking cycle [10]. - **Other Factors**: The basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policy all affect the market [10]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly bullish. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and key factors to monitor include geopolitical risks [10]. 3.5 Styrene (EB) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The Asian styrene price has rebounded, and the domestic device load is gradually recovering [11]. - **Demand**: The EPS start - up rate has rebounded, the PS start - up rate has slightly decreased, and the start - up rates of acrylonitrile, butadiene, and ABS are stable [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports has decreased [11]. - **Other Factors**: The basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policy all have an impact on the styrene market [11]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The styrene cost is expected to collapse and trend weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and key factors to monitor include geopolitical risks [11]. 3.6 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The domestic LPG production and arrival volume have different changes, and some refineries have production adjustments, which may lead to an increase in domestic supply [12]. - **Demand**: The combustion demand is in a seasonal off - peak, the profit of olefin deep - processing is weak, and the propane chemical demand has increased but the downstream demand is in a seasonal off - peak [12]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory pressure has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate [12]. - **Other Factors**: The basis, position, downstream profit, valuation, and geopolitical and macro - factors all affect the LPG market [12]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The short - term view is bearish in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to pay attention to the weakening of the inter - month spread and the narrowing of the PDH profit in the off - peak season for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include Sino - US tariff policies, US sanctions on Iran, and downstream demand changes [12]. 3.7 Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene production has decreased slightly, and the production of butadiene rubber may continue to decrease due to losses and device maintenance [13]. - **Demand**: The demand for both all - steel and semi - steel tires is weak [13]. - **Inventory**: The butadiene port inventory has decreased, while the butadiene rubber enterprise and trader inventory has increased [13]. - **Other Factors**: The basis, spread, profit, and macro - geopolitical factors all affect the BR market [13]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The short - term BR price is relatively stable, but it is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to consider a long - BR and short - NR/RU strategy for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [13]. 3.8 Caustic Soda (SH) There is no detailed information provided for caustic soda in the given content. 3.9 PVC (V) There is no detailed analysis information provided for PVC in the given content. 3.10 Asphalt (BU) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The domestic asphalt production plan in May shows different trends in different regions, and the import situation is also affected by various factors such as price and demand [16]. - **Demand**: The demand in the north is gradually released, while the demand in the south is limited due to the rainy season and capital issues [16]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory is accumulating, while the social inventory in most regions is decreasing [16]. - **Cost and Profit**: The crude oil market is affected by multiple factors, and the asphalt processing profit is relatively stable [16]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The asphalt fundamentals are better than those of crude oil, and it is more resistant to decline and has lower volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the cracking spread for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include geopolitical disturbances and Trump's policies [16]. 3.11 Container Shipping Index for European Routes (EC) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Spot Freight Rate**: The May spot freight rate has declined slightly, and shipping companies are trying to increase the June freight rate [18]. - **Politics**: Events such as the US - Israel - Hamas negotiation, the Antwerp port strike, and the resurgence of the Red Sea crisis affect the market [18]. - **Capacity Supply**: The long - term capacity delivery is at a historical high, and the short - term capacity supply is gradually increasing [18]. - **Demand**: The cargo volume on the US route has increased, and the cargo volume on the European route is in a seasonal recovery stage [18]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: It is recommended for short - term observation. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include geopolitical disturbances and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [18].
《特殊商品》日报-20250526
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 03:48
| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2011 ] 1292号 2025年5月26日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 735 | 770 | -35 | -4.55% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | a500 | 9500 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 785 | 820 | -35 | -4.27% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8050 | 8050 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差(新疆) | ‍රි35 | 970 | -35 | -3.61% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2506-2507 ...
《特殊商品》日报-20250523
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 06:36
| *业期现日报 | F미 【2011 1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纪元菲 | | | | | Z00T3180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | | 单位 | 市科 | 5月22日 | 5月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | | 8650 | 8700 | -50 | -0.57% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | | 770 | 832 | -65 | -7.78% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | | a200 | aeoo | -100 | -1.04% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | | 820 | વેડી | -115 | -12.30% | | | 新疆99硅 | | 8050 | 8100 | -20 | -0.62% | | | 基差(新疆) | | 970 | 1035 | -65 | -6.28% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 合约 | | 5月22日 | 5月 ...
《特殊商品》日报-20250515
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 06:36
关注微信公众号 | V (FF) | *业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 | | | | 纪工菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 0000 | 9100 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基美(通氢SI5530基准) | eto | 870 | -260 | -29.89% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10000 | 10000 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 710 | 970 | -260 | -26.80% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8300 | 8300 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差(新疆) | 610 | 870 | -260 | -29.89% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月14日 | 5 ...
能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20250427
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-27 09:38
Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002332 日期:2025年4月27日 CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 操作建议 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 操作建议 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【泰国一季度天胶、混合胶合计出口量同比增13.6%】最新数据显示,2025年一季度,泰国出口天然橡胶(不含复合橡胶)合计为79.8万吨,同比增2%。其中, 标胶合计出口46.5万吨,同比降4%;烟片胶出口10.7万吨,同比增10%;乳胶出口22.1万吨,同比增12%。一季度,出口到中国天然橡胶合计为37.2万吨,同比增 33%。其中,标胶出口到中国合计为23.2万吨,同比增11%;烟片胶出口到中国合计为3.9万吨,同比大增290%;乳胶出口到中国合计为10万吨,同比增6 ...