投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-01-20 政策预期反复，新能源金属宽幅震荡 新能源观点：政策预期反复，新能源⾦属宽幅震荡 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需延续偏紧格局，供应扰动担忧持续，但价格快 速上涨后，下游消费趋于谨慎；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，多晶硅收 储平台成立，但反垄断担忧让供应收缩预期淡化。中短期来看，政策 预期反复，新能源金属宽幅震荡。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较 强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但 需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推 高价格重心。 ⼯业硅观点：关注西北开⼯变化，硅价有所⽀撑。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅价格延续震荡。 碳酸锂观点：基本⾯较强，锂价⾼位震荡。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F03108000 投资咨询号Z0021453 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the strategic opportunities in industrial metals, suggesting a focus on this sector as the global trend of de-globalization deepens and the technological attributes of strategic metals increase. With copper prices approaching 100,000, it is seen as a favorable time for strategic allocation in industrial metals [9][14]. - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked basic material in the context of de-globalization, with improving supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices higher. The report notes that the recent decline in zinc smelting fees indicates ongoing supply tightness, and there is optimism regarding demand from re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [9][14]. - The copper sector is viewed positively, with short-term price fluctuations not affecting the upward trend in equities. The report anticipates improvements in copper prices and smelting fees due to supply constraints and upcoming mine restarts [9][15]. - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [9][16]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report suggests focusing on industrial metals as the market sentiment cools, with potential investment opportunities emerging [9][14]. - Zinc is identified as a critical material with a positive outlook due to supply-demand improvements and infrastructure needs in developing regions [9][14]. - Copper is expected to see price stability and profit improvements for smelting companies as major mines plan to resume operations [9][15]. - Aluminum is projected to experience steady growth in profitability, supported by supply chain advantages and rising demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [9][16]. Steel Industry - The steel sector is currently facing a weak fundamental backdrop as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [17]. - Steel production has seen a slight decrease, with rebar consumption increasing by 8.79% week-on-week, indicating a marginal strengthening in demand [22][17]. - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, with total steel inventory slightly increasing [24]. - Steel prices have generally seen a minor increase, with the overall price index rising by 0.15% [36]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [40]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44]. - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen, reflecting the increasing demand and supply dynamics in the new energy metals market [49][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6] Core Views - Continuous focus on strategic opportunities in industrial metals is emphasized, with a recommendation to concentrate on the industrial metal sector as the market sentiment cools and volatility increases [9][14] - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked foundational material in the context of de-globalization, with expectations for price increases due to improving supply-demand dynamics [9][14] - The copper sector is viewed positively in the medium term, with expectations for price and smelting fee improvements despite short-term fluctuations [9][15] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from supply chain security and competitive advantages, leading to potential valuation premiums [9][16] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report suggests that industrial metals are entering a favorable strategic allocation period as copper prices approach 100,000 [9][14] - Zinc is expected to see price increases driven by demand from re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, despite domestic construction concerns [9][14] - Copper prices are anticipated to improve due to supply constraints, with significant copper mines expected to resume production in 2026 [9][15] - The aluminum sector is projected to experience steady profit growth due to enhanced supply chain security and rising aluminum prices [9][16] Steel Industry - The steel industry is facing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the sector [17] - Weekly rebar consumption increased by 8.79% week-on-week, indicating a marginal strengthening in demand [22] - Steel production saw a slight decrease, with iron output down by 0.65% and rebar production down by 0.39% [19][22] - Steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the overall steel price index rising by 0.15% [36] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen significantly, reflecting strong market demand [49][51]

此外，数据显示，截至2025年四季度末，还有华富新能源股票、中欧资源精选混合、华富科技动能混 合、前海开源沪港深乐享生活灵活配置混合、融通产业趋势臻选股票合计5只基金的最新规模环比增长 超10亿元。 公募基金2025年四季报陆续披露中，从当前已披露的情况来看，部分主动权益类基金的最新规模环比大 涨。公开数据显示，截至1月18日，共有106只基金的2025年四季报披露，其中有11只主动权益类基金的 最新规模环比翻倍，更有产品规模环比增长超10倍。除规模外，季报也同步披露了相关基金的最新资产 配置情况以及基金经理的后市投资思路。也有业内人士提醒投资者，在市场上涨的背景下切勿追高，要 保持理性不要加杠杆，尤其是在市场出现短期加速上涨时更应谨慎对待风险敞口。 规模环比增幅最高超42倍 公募四季报密集披露中，截至1月18日，已有106只基金披露2025年四季报，其中包含69只主动权益类基 金。就规模变化情况来看，多达36只主动权益类基金环比增长，有11只基金实现翻倍，更有2只产品增 长超10倍。 季报数据显示，中欧周期优选混合的最新规模环比涨超10倍，由2025年三季度末的0.36亿元涨至同年四 季度末的15.75亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The precious metals sector is experiencing an increase in prices due to rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, with silver prices accelerating [1][9] - Industrial metals are expected to see price fluctuations due to interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions, particularly affecting copper and aluminum [2][11] - The lithium carbonate market is witnessing a significant price increase, although spot trading remains sluggish [3][17] - The rare earth market is seeing rapid price increases driven by supply tightening, but demand has not kept pace, leading to a divided sentiment in the industry [3][21] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors are enhancing the safe-haven appeal of precious metals, particularly gold and silver [1][9] - Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Lingbao, and others in the A-share and H-share markets [10] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are experiencing volatility due to macroeconomic disturbances and geopolitical risks, with domestic inventories reaching a ten-year high [11][15] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, but demand is under pressure due to high prices and seasonal factors [15][16] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production is slightly increasing, but overall market sentiment remains strong due to optimistic demand forecasts, particularly in the energy storage sector [17] - Key stocks in the lithium sector include Ganfeng Lithium and others [17] Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is seeing price increases driven by supply constraints, particularly in recycled materials, but demand has not matched this growth [21] - Key stocks to monitor include Northern Rare Earth and others in the rare earth sector [21] Market Review - The overall non-ferrous metal index increased by 3.0%, outperforming the broader market [22] - Notable stock performances include Hunan Silver, which saw a 41.14% increase, while West Materials experienced a 16.96% decline [32] Valuation - The current PE ratio for the non-ferrous metal industry is 35.36, indicating potential for valuation increases in copper and aluminum sectors due to supply constraints and rising demand for green metals [37]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shengxin Lithium Energy's stock price dropped by 5.02% to 33.32 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.086 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.46%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 30.498 billion CNY [1] - Shengxin Lithium Energy, established on December 29, 2001, and listed on May 23, 2008, is located in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. The company primarily engages in the production and sales of medium-density fiberboard, timber, rare earth products, lithium chloride, battery-grade monohydrate lithium hydroxide, and battery-grade lithium carbonate, focusing entirely on the new energy and new materials sectors [1] - The company's main business revenue composition is 100% from new energy [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, Chang'an Fund has one fund heavily invested in Shengxin Lithium Energy. The Chang'an Xinxin Mixed A Fund (005477) reduced its holdings by 690,000 shares in the third quarter, now holding 662,900 shares, which accounts for 4.81% of the fund's net value, making it the third-largest holding [2] - The Chang'an Xinxin Mixed A Fund (005477) was established on February 7, 2018, with a latest scale of 64.3917 million CNY. Year-to-date, it has a return of 4.16%, ranking 4421 out of 8847 in its category; over the past year, it has achieved a return of 26.21%, ranking 4760 out of 8094; since inception, it has incurred a loss of 53.15% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the pricing logic of non-ferrous metals, emphasizing the rise of strategic resource populism as a key factor influencing market pricing, particularly after the implementation of equal tariffs in the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Non-Ferrous Metals Market Analysis - The traditional pricing framework for non-ferrous metals has been driven by global macro liquidity, economic expectations, and the US dollar index, but recent years have shown a divergence between metal prices and global economic indicators [4][6]. - The current economic environment is characterized by low global PMI levels, yet non-ferrous metal prices have outperformed expectations, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by monetary attributes and strategic reserve demands [4][7]. Trading Framework and Historical Performance - The core trading framework focuses on the economic cycle, particularly inventory cycles, with liquidity as an important extension. However, this framework has faced challenges in the non-ferrous metals sector due to unique supply and demand dynamics [6][7]. - Historical trading experiences highlight the importance of adhering to a core framework while recognizing the evolving market conditions, leading to successful investments in precious metals and strategic small metals [9][10]. Sector-Specific Insights - Precious Metals (Gold, Silver): The article notes a strong performance in gold and silver due to anticipated changes in US monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, with significant gains observed over the past three years [9][10]. - Strategic Small Metals (Antimony, Tungsten, Rare Earths): The author emphasizes early positioning in strategic small metals, benefiting from export controls and geopolitical shifts, resulting in substantial price increases [11][12]. - Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum): Despite a generally positive long-term outlook, concerns remain regarding the sustainability of demand due to ongoing issues in the real estate sector and uncertainties in US economic growth [13][14]. 2026 Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The market for non-ferrous metals is expected to remain active, but the author advocates for a cautious approach, focusing on identifying clear entry points rather than participating in the current market excitement [16][17]. - Industrial metals are viewed with caution due to unresolved concerns about the real estate market and the sustainability of AI-driven capital expenditures, with a recommendation to monitor these sectors closely [17][18]. - For strategic small metals, the long-term outlook remains positive, but current high prices necessitate waiting for favorable entry points [20][21]. - Precious metals continue to show long-term benefits, but short-term caution is advised due to market volatility and the need for clear buying signals [21][22]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while the non-ferrous metals market is currently vibrant, the focus should remain on waiting for definitive buying opportunities rather than engaging in all market trends, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic decision-making in investment [22][24].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short and medium term, due to the repeated policy expectations, the performance of new energy metals is differentiated. Silicon material prices are weak, and attention should be paid to the support on the spot side. Lithium carbonate continues to benefit from the improvement in supply - demand, and lithium prices remain strong. In the long term, the supply - side contraction expectation of silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price may rise. The lithium carbonate supply - demand surplus is narrowing, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - As of January 12, the spot price of industrial silicon was stable. As of the latest data, the inventory was basically flat, with a slight decrease in market inventory and a slight increase in factory inventory. In December 2025, domestic monthly production decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January - December decreased year - on - year. In November, exports increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January - November decreased slightly year - on - year. In November, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative installed capacity from January - November increased year - on - year. The export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled from April 1, 2026 [7]. - The supply in January is expected to decline slightly. The demand from polysilicon is weak, and some silicon material factories may have further maintenance. The cancellation of the export tax rebate may boost the polysilicon start - up rate in the first quarter. Organic silicon enterprises have cut production, but the start - up rate may adjust according to market demand. The aluminum alloy start - up rate has decreased, and the demand for industrial silicon is limited. Currently, industrial silicon is in a stockpiling pattern, and attention should be paid to whether the demand will be substantially boosted [7]. - The supply of industrial silicon is weak, and the price remains volatile. The demand may have short - term support under the drive of export rush, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of downstream enterprises [7] Polysilicon - As of the week of January 12, the N - type re - feed material transaction price increased week - on - week. On January 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased. In November 2025, the export volume decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January - November decreased significantly year - on - year. The import volume also decreased year - on - year. The newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January - November 2025 increased year - on - year. The export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled from April 1, 2026 [7]. - Recently, the anti - monopoly concern has increased, and the price has dropped significantly. With the arrival of the dry season, the production capacity in the southwest has gradually decreased. The demand has been weakening since November, and the silicon wafer production schedule has declined significantly. However, the cancellation of the export tax rebate may lead to an export rush in the first quarter, which will boost the short - term demand. Overall, the supply - demand situation is still under pressure, and the price may be under pressure [8]. - The weak fundamentals remain unchanged. With the increasing anti - monopoly concern, the polysilicon price may show a volatile and pressured trend [9] Lithium Carbonate - On January 12, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 8.81% compared with the previous day, and the total position decreased. The spot price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and the average price of spodumene concentrate increased. The number of warehouse receipts increased. On January 9, 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate produced by Hainan Mining's Mali Buguoni lithium mine arrived at Hainan Yangpu Port [9]. - Currently, the demand for lithium carbonate is slightly weakening, but the long - term demand expectation is strong, and the macro sentiment is good. The market is optimistic about the demand in January, and the production schedule is expected to be higher than that in December. Recently, there have been frequent supply disturbances at home and abroad. The cancellation of the export tax rebate for lithium - ion batteries from April may lead to an export rush, which is short - term positive and medium - to - long - term negative for lithium prices. Overall, the fundamentals are slightly weakening, but the far - month expectation is good, and the price is mainly in a strong and volatile state [9]. - The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile [10] 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the sub - items of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, but no specific monitoring content is provided 3. Commodity Index - On January 12, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities, including the special index (such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index), all had an increase. The new energy commodity index also increased, with a daily increase of 3.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.55%, a 1 - month increase of 21.90%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.36% [51][52]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant fluctuations in precious metals, driven by changes in margin requirements and adjustments in commodity index weights, leading to a rebound in precious metals prices following disappointing non-farm payroll data [3] - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on precious metals due to ongoing geopolitical events and expectations of monetary easing, suggesting investors should hold positions despite market volatility [3] - For copper, the report recommends buying on dips, citing expected supply-demand tightness in 2026 due to production cuts from major producers and increased fiscal spending expectations from the U.S. government [4] - The aluminum market is also recommended for buying on dips, with strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks providing support despite current demand pressures [4] - Tin prices have surged past 350,000 yuan/ton, driven by significant inventory reductions and ongoing demand from AI capital expenditures, with a recommendation to buy on dips [5] - Lithium prices continue to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips, supported by supply constraints and strong demand expectations [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw an 8.3% increase this week, ranking fifth among sectors [13] Prices - LME copper decreased by 0.93%, aluminum increased by 1.91%, zinc decreased by 1.84%, lead increased by 0.84%, and tin increased by 7.38% [18] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 1.32%, silver by 4.29%, and NYMEX palladium by 5.73%, while platinum fell by 18.09% [18] - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 17.15% [18] Inventory - Global visible copper inventories increased by 31,985 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 809 tons, zinc decreased by 900 tons, lead decreased by 11,300 tons, and tin decreased by 916 tons [24][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [6] Core Views - Precious metals are experiencing high volatility due to geopolitical tensions, with gold prices supported by weak manufacturing data and expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [3][11] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are facing supply disruptions amid geopolitical tensions, leading to fluctuating prices, while aluminum prices are influenced by international supply constraints and domestic demand [4][12][13] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged significantly, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in lithium-related stocks [17][18] - Other minor metals, such as rare earths, are showing stable price increases, with limited low-priced offerings in the market [19] Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Geopolitical conflicts have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, leading to fluctuations in gold prices, with the market awaiting key economic data [10][11] - Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Lingbao, and various H-shares [3][11] 2. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have seen a rise due to supply concerns from Chile and Ecuador, with market optimism for year-end prices [4][12] - Aluminum prices have been volatile, influenced by geopolitical tensions and domestic consumption patterns [13][16] - Notable stocks include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, and various H-shares [4][16] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have increased significantly, with futures prices nearing 150,000 yuan/ton, indicating strong demand from the supply chain [17] - Key stocks in this sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianhua, and others [18] 4. Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are on the rise, with limited low-priced offerings in the market, indicating a tightening supply [19] - Stocks to monitor include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and others [19] 5. Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index rose by 8.6%, outperforming the broader market, with tungsten showing the largest gains among sub-sectors [22][30] - Top-performing stocks include Zhizhe New Materials and Dongyangguang, with significant price increases noted [33] 6. Valuation - The current P/E ratio for the non-ferrous metals industry stands at 32.29, with aluminum showing potential for valuation increases due to supply constraints [35]