1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the tight supply - demand situation, lithium carbonate leads the rise of new energy metals. In the long run, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, with a possible rise in the price center. The high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, with continuous warehouse receipt depletion, the silicon price fluctuates. For polysilicon, with a slight reduction in warehouse receipts, it continues to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, with continuous warehouse receipt depletion, the lithium price rises with increased positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously depleted, and the silicon price fluctuates [6]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the monthly domestic industrial silicon production was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. In September, the export volume was 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The latest domestic inventory was 445,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [6]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the supply in the Northwest continues to increase, while the dry season in the Southwest is approaching, with some silicon plants reducing production. On the demand side, the consumption of industrial silicon has rebounded due to the resumption of production of some polysilicon enterprises in October, but is expected to decline slightly in November. The silicone DMC market is stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry is limited. The continuous depletion of industrial silicon warehouse receipts supports the futures price [6]. - **Outlook**: With a relatively loose supply pattern, the silicon price is under pressure. Affected by coal prices, the silicon price will fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are slightly depleted, and polysilicon continues to fluctuate [7]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the export volume of polysilicon was about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September, the export volume was 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. The import volume in September was about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September, the import volume was 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26%. Some bases in the Southwest are expected to stop production in late October - early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons per year [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the production in August - September has recovered to over 130,000 tons, expected to remain high in October and decline in November. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first half of the year was high, but the demand in the second half of the year is expected to weaken. There is still pressure on the current supply - demand of polysilicon, but there are policy expectations, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [7][9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy can boost the polysilicon price, but the current supply - demand is poor, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously depleted, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [9]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 23, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.66% to 79,940 yuan/ton, and the total open interest increased by 72,329 lots to 815,338 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton to 74,800 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton to 72,550 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts decreased by 260 lots to 28,759 lots [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand. The supply is expected to reach 90,000 tons in October. The apparent demand is strong, and the production schedule in November is still strong. The social inventory is decreasing, but the total inventory is still large. The significant reduction in warehouse receipts should be watched out for. The price has strengthened under the situation of strong supply and demand [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the long - term oversupply expectation suppresses the price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. 3.2 Market Monitoring - Not provided in the content

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of future positioning rather than past defensive strategies, suggesting that investors should focus on opportunities for excess returns in the upcoming year [9][15]. - Gold prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term but are projected to reach new highs in the medium term due to credit and safe-haven demand [16]. - The rare earth sector is anticipated to maintain its strategic importance despite short-term price declines, with a widening supply-demand gap expected in the medium term [17]. - The copper market is viewed positively, with expectations of price increases in the medium term, encouraging investors to buy on dips [17]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold: Short-term volatility is high, but medium-term prospects are strong with expectations of new highs supported by credit and safe-haven demand [16]. - Rare Earths: Short-term price declines do not diminish the medium-term strategic position, with an anticipated widening supply-demand gap [17]. - Copper: Strong medium-term price outlook, with a recommendation to buy on dips due to expected economic recovery and increased manufacturing investment [17]. 2. Steel Industry - Profitability: Short-term profitability is under pressure, with both prices and costs declining [28]. - Supply and Demand: Weekly rebar consumption decreased to 2.2 million tons, down 8.84% week-on-week and 14.77% year-on-year [24][18]. - Inventory: Both social and steel mill inventories have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [25]. - Prices: The overall steel price index has slightly decreased, with specific products like hot-rolled steel experiencing a notable drop [38]. 3. New Energy Metals - Supply: Significant increase in lithium production, with August 2025 output reaching 80,040 tons, up 46.54% year-on-year [42]. - Demand: High growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, with August 2025 figures showing a 26% increase year-on-year [48]. - Prices: Lithium prices have risen, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 75,750 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.55% week-on-week increase [55].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-10-21 供应端政策待明朗，现实供需继续主导 新能源金属盘面 新能源观点：供应端政策待明朗，现实供需继续主导新能源⾦属盘⾯ 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需双增，矿端出现扰动，供需延续偏紧格局；工 业硅和多晶硅供需走势反复，工业硅和多晶硅有累库压力；电解钴延 续过剩格局。中短期来看，供应端政策待明朗，新能源金属价格延续 震荡格局。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重 心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，碳酸锂供应高增将限制锂价 上方高度。 ⼯业硅观点：煤炭价格反复，硅价短期震荡。 多晶硅观点：仓单注册速度加快，多晶硅价格震荡承压。 碳酸锂观点：供需双强背景下，锂价维持震荡。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号F03093201 投资咨询号Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F031 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen significant price increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% due to recession fears and expectations of renewed tariffs [4] - Copper prices have rebounded by 2.25% on the LME, driven by tariff expectations, despite some pressure from lower downstream demand [5] - Cobalt prices have surged due to supply concerns following the announcement of export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with significant weekly increases in various cobalt compounds [6] - The report indicates that rare earth prices have decreased but are expected to stabilize due to tightened export controls and ongoing demand in sectors like energy-efficient appliances and electric vehicles [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index for the industry is at 7322.8, with a weekly high of 7807.9 and a low of 4280.14 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper increase by 2.25%, aluminum by 1.18%, while zinc, lead, and tin experienced declines [19] - Precious metals saw significant increases, with COMEX gold up by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% [19] Inventory Trends - Global visible copper inventories increased by 16,766 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 6,049 tons [33][35]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" [7] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent surge in gold prices is driven by worsening international trade relations and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 97% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 100% probability in December [2][12] - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed signals, with copper prices supported by supply disruptions and strong demand from the automotive sector, while aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to tight supply and strong demand [2][14][17] - In the renewable metals sector, cobalt prices are rising due to tight supply and strong demand, while lithium remains a strategic investment opportunity in the electric vehicle supply chain [19][20] - Rare earth prices are under pressure, with mixed performance among other minor metals, as export controls tighten [24][47] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached historical highs due to trade tensions and Fed rate cut expectations, with key stocks including Zhongjin, Zijin, and Zhaojin [2][13] - Silver prices are also on the rise, with stocks like Shengda and Huyin being highlighted [2][13] Industrial Metals - Copper is facing supply disruptions from events in Indonesia and Congo, while demand from the automotive sector remains strong, with September sales showing a 23.7% year-on-year increase [14][17] - Aluminum prices are expected to be stable due to balanced supply and demand dynamics, with key stocks including Yun Aluminum and Tianshan [18] Renewable Metals - Cobalt prices are experiencing upward pressure due to tight supply and strong demand, with potential for prices to exceed 400,000 CNY/ton [20][23] - Lithium remains a focus for strategic investment, with expectations of strong demand in the electric vehicle sector [19] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are weak, with specific metals like praseodymium and neodymium seeing price declines, while dysprosium prices have increased [24][47] - The report notes the tightening of export controls on rare earths, impacting market sentiment [24][47]

Macro Dynamics - Guangdong Province successfully issued offshore RMB local government bonds totaling 7.5 billion yuan in Hong Kong, marking the second consecutive year of such issuance. The bonds include 3-year green sustainable development bonds (3.5 billion yuan at 1.72%), 5-year bonds (2.5 billion yuan at 1.80%), and 10-year blue sustainable development bonds (1.5 billion yuan at 2.09%). The funds will primarily support green and blue sustainable development projects and comprehensive cooperation initiatives in Nansha, Guangzhou [2]. Industry Insights - As of June 2025, the user base for generative artificial intelligence in China reached 515 million, an increase of 266 million from December 2024, effectively doubling in six months, with a penetration rate of 36.5% [3]. Financial Institutions - Deutsche Bank reported that gold's share in global foreign exchange and gold reserves has risen to 30%, while the dollar's share decreased from 43% to 40%. To match the dollar's share, gold prices would need to rise to $5,790 per ounce, assuming current holdings remain unchanged [7]. Market Data - As of October 17, U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.52% (1.56% weekly), Nasdaq up 0.52% (2.14% weekly), and S&P 500 up 0.53% (1.7% weekly). Notable tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla rising over 2% and Oracle dropping over 6% [8]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.14% but saw a weekly increase of 1.83%, with mixed performances among Chinese concept stocks [9]. Company Dynamics - Greeenme reported that its nickel smelting project in Indonesia produced 3,667 tons of cobalt in the first half of 2025, a 125% year-on-year increase. The company aims for a total cobalt recovery of 10,128 tons in 2024, exceeding China's primary cobalt mining output by 350% [12]. - Wentech Technology responded to the interruption of employee access at its subsidiary, Anshi Semiconductor (China), stating that some access has been restored. The company is taking measures to ensure supply chain stability amid the situation [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Expected to fluctuate in the short term, with potential downward pressure due to oversupply [6][7] - Polysilicon: Expected to fluctuate under pressure, with prices potentially continuing to decline if policy expectations fade [7][9] - Lithium carbonate: Expected to trade sideways in the short term, with long - term oversupply and supply recovery expectations weighing on prices [11] 2. Core Viewpoints - The policy on the supply side of new energy metals is unclear, and the current supply - demand situation is temporarily driving the market. In the medium - short term, due to the fluctuating supply expectations, the prices of new energy metals will fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to wait for the supply - side policy to become clear. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center, while the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1] 3. Summary by Variety Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Monitor the resumption rhythm in the northwest, and the silicon price will fluctuate in the short term [6] - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The cumulative production from January to September was 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. In August, the export volume was 76,642 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. The cumulative export from January to August was 491,353 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The latest domestic inventory was 442,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [6] - **Main Logic**: Before the holiday, the resumption progress of large factories in the northwest slowed down, and the fluctuating coal prices affected the cost support. In October, the supply was still relatively loose, and the demand improved slightly month - on - month [6] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The current supply - demand situation is poor, and the polysilicon price is under pressure and fluctuating [7] - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price range of N - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. In August, the export volume was about 2,992 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.9%, and the cumulative export from January to August was 16,517 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.3%. The import volume in August was about 1,005.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.81%, and the cumulative import from January to August was 13,385 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.59% [7] - **Main Logic**: From August to September, the production of polysilicon has recovered to over 130,000 tons, and high production is expected to continue in October. The demand for photovoltaic installations in the second half of the year is expected to decline, and the demand for polysilicon may weaken further [8][9] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: With strong supply and demand, the price will trade sideways [10] - **Information Analysis**: On October 13, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 0.63% to 72,280 yuan/ton. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 73,100 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 70,850 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) was 839 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton [10] - **Main Logic**: Currently, the market has strong supply and demand, but there is still an expectation of oversupply after the peak season. The supply is expected to reach 90,000 tons in October, and the apparent demand in October is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month to 114,000 tons. The social inventory is still relatively high [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes and further management of the rare earth industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of trade tariff concerns on gold's safe-haven demand, while silver prices are accelerating due to spot market shortages and warehouse squeezes [7]. - The rare earth industry is seeing enhanced management policies, ensuring the strategic security of China's rare earth industry [7]. - The cobalt market is expected to experience upward price pressure due to the announced export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. Industry Overview - **Industrial Metals**: The report notes that trade tariff concerns are increasing gold's safe-haven demand, with silver prices rising due to market shortages. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease in holdings by 2.3 tons to 1013.44 tons, while iShares Silver ETF increased by 35.28 tons to 15443.76 tons [7]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth materials are expected to enhance the management of the industry, ensuring strategic security [7]. - **Cobalt**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota policy is likely to support cobalt prices, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt rising by 4.8% to 349,500 CNY/ton [9]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Shandong Gold, as well as silver companies like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources [2]. - For cobalt, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising cobalt prices [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the uncertainty of supply - side policies and the repeated supply expectations, the prices of new energy metals will fluctuate widely. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center. The increasing production capacity of lithium ore will limit the upside potential of lithium prices [1]. - For industrial silicon, the price fluctuates due to the changes in coal prices and the resumption of production in the northwest region. For polysilicon, the price has high volatility because of the repeated policy expectations. For lithium carbonate, after the end of the production suspension expectation, the price returns to a pressured and volatile state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Industrial Silicon** - **Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuates due to the changes in coal prices and the resumption of production in the northwest region. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [6]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The cumulative production from January to September was 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. The latest domestic inventory was 445,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. In August, the export volume was 76,642 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. The cumulative export from January to August was 491,353 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in August was 7.36GW, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 55.3%. The cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to August was 230.6GW, a year - on - year increase of 64.7% [6]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the repeated coal prices affect the cost support of industrial silicon, and the resumption of production of large factories in the northwest has slowed down, so the silicon price continues to oscillate. In September, the supply of industrial silicon increased significantly. The supply is expected to decline in the dry season in the southwest at the end of October, and the overall supply is still affected by the production rhythm and scale in the northwest. The demand has slightly improved, and the inventory is relatively stable [6]. - **Outlook**: The silicon price declined due to the loosening of coal prices before the holiday. Recently, the resumption of production of large factories has slowed down, and the price of industrial silicon shows short - term oscillation. The resumption of production of large factories in the northwest needs to be continuously monitored [6]. - **Polysilicon** - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated policy expectations, the price of polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [7]. - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price range of N - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 140 to 8,090. In August, the export volume was about 2,992 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.9%, and the cumulative export from January to August was 16,517 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25.3%. In August, the import volume was about 1,005.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.81%, and the cumulative import from January to August was 13,385 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.59%. The cumulative new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January to August was 230.61GW, a year - on - year increase of 65% [7]. - **Main Logic**: From the perspective of supply fundamentals, the production of polysilicon in August has recovered to over 130,000 tons and is expected to remain high in September. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the anti - involution policy will limit the supply of polysilicon. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate increased significantly from January to May, but it also overdrawn the installation demand in the second half of the year. The subsequent demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken. Overall, the supply - demand situation of polysilicon still has pressure, and the price fluctuation increases [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant impact on the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. If the policy expectation fades, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Viewpoint**: After the end of the production suspension expectation, the price of lithium carbonate returns to a pressured and volatile state. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [9][10]. - **Information Analysis**: On September 30, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 1.52% to 72,800 yuan/ton, and the total position decreased by 19,893 lots to 676,349 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73,550 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 71,300 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) was 858 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 590 to 41,709 lots. In September 2025, the monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 52% [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, the market has strong supply and demand. After the successful submission of the reserve report on September 30, the price may be under pressure and oscillate. Although there is a supply - demand gap, it is less than expected. The production in September increased significantly, and the production in October is expected to reach 90,000 tons. The market generally expects no more production suspensions. The import of lithium carbonate may increase in the future. The apparent demand is strong, and the social inventory is decreasing, but the total inventory is still large. The number of warehouse receipts is gradually recovering, which suppresses the price. Overall, the domestic supply - demand gap is not obvious, and the supply has great elasticity, so the price is under long - term pressure [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the expectation of future oversupply and supply recovery suppresses the price. It is expected that the price will mainly oscillate in the short term [10][11]. 3.2行情监测 - **Industrial Silicon**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Polysilicon**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Lithium Carbonate**: No specific content is provided in the given text.

Group 1 - The three major indices collectively rose on September 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.74% [1] - The A500 ETF (512050), which tracks the CSI A500 Index, saw a rise of 1.39% and achieved a trading volume exceeding 5.7 billion yuan, marking a new high for September [1] - The A500 ETF has experienced net inflows for four consecutive trading days, accumulating 1.913 billion yuan in the last five days [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) indicated that macro policies will continue to exert force and "increase strength as appropriate" to consolidate positive momentum [1] - Fixed asset investment in China grew by 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with the accelerated deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools expected to boost investment growth [1] - Citigroup upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to "Overweight" while downgrading European stocks to "Neutral," citing a more favorable outlook for the Chinese stock market driven by strong capital inflows and optimism regarding artificial intelligence [1] Group 3 - The A500 ETF (512050) enables investors to easily allocate to core A-share assets, employing a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading stock selection [2] - The ETF covers all 35 sub-industries in the CSI A500 Index, integrating both value and growth characteristics, and is overweight in sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy compared to the CSI 300 Index [2]