《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》(以下简称《工作方案》)经国务院常务会议审议通过，已由国 务院办公厅正式印发。孔德军介绍，数据显示，2020至2025年间，中国居民人均服务性消费支出年均增 长8.5%，2025年服务消费占居民消费支出比重已达46.1%，几乎占据"半壁江山"。在这一趋势下，以情 绪满足和深度体验为驱动的新兴消费形态快速兴起。 新京报讯(记者陈琳)"随着居民消费从'有没有'转向'好不好'，个性化、多样化、品质化的服务消费正成 为经济增长的关键引擎。"2月6日，商务部服务贸易和商贸服务业司司长孔德军在国新办举行的国务院 政策例行吹风会上，如此描述当前中国消费市场的深刻变化。 未来一段时期，中国服务消费预计将继续保持强劲增长态势，成为拉动消费回升、推动经济高质量发展 的重要力量。越来越多兼具文化内涵与情感温度的服务产品，将在政策引导与市场活力共同推动下，走 进大众日常生活。 面对这一趋势，《工作方案》明确提出将从创新监管方式、优化发展环境、拓展消费场景等方面，支持 情绪体验类服务消费健康发展。"我们将在保障安全的前提下，鼓励新业态、新模式有序成长，更好满 足人民群众对美好生活的需求。"孔德军说。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the release of the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption," which highlights the increasing importance of service consumption in China's economy [1][2] - In 2022, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure to per capita total consumption expenditure reached 46.1%, indicating that service consumption is becoming a significant part of residents' overall consumption [1][2] - The average annual growth rate of per capita service consumption expenditure in China is projected to be 8.5% from 2020 to 2025, showcasing strong growth momentum [2] Group 2 - The shift in consumer focus from "availability" to "quality" is leading to a rising demand for personalized, diverse, and high-quality service consumption products [2] - Emotional and experiential services are emerging trends, with activities like writing Spring Festival couplets and immersive performances gaining popularity [2] - The "Work Plan" aims to support and guide the development of new business models through innovative regulatory methods, creating a healthy development environment, and innovating consumption scenarios [2]

会议强调，当前消费结构加快从商品消费主导向服务消费主导转变，服务贸易也在万亿美元基础上迈上 新台阶，要以高水平开放为引领，坚持"政策+活动"双轮驱动，培育服务消费新增长点，鼓励支持服务 出口，创新发展数字贸易，促进展览业高质量发展，奋力实现"十五五"高质量发展良好开局。 各省、自治区、直辖市及新疆生产建设兵团商务主管部门代表，商务部有关司局负责同志参会。中央和 国家机关有关部门代表参加会议。 会议指出，2025年是"十四五"收官之年，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，全国商务系统通 力合作、开拓创新，推动服务消费和服务贸易高质量发展，服务消费加力增效，服务贸易再创新高，为 助力经济持续回升向好作出积极贡献。 2月4—5日，2026年全国服务消费和服务贸易工作会议在京召开。会议以习近平新时代中国特色社会主 义思想为指导，全面贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，认真落实中央经济工作会议部署，落实全 国商务工作会议要求，总结2025年和"十四五"工作，研究部署2026年工作，谋划"十五五"服务消费和服 务贸易发展。商务部副部长鄢东出席会议并作工作报告。 ...

投资建议： 我们认为， 26 年开年之际促消费政策频发，扩内需战略持续推进，将加速消费信心提振，推动消费需求扩张。第三方收单公司有望受益于线下 消费复苏。 风险提示。 政策波动风险；政策落地不及预期；消费复苏不及预期。 报告导读： 26 年开年之际促消费政策频发，扩内需战略持续推进， 将加速消费信心提 振，推动消费需求扩张 ，第三方收单公司有望受益。 国办重磅政策提振服务消费。 2026 年 1 月 29 日，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，旨在优化和扩大服务供给，促进服务消费 提质惠民。《工作方案》提出三方面支持政策。一是聚焦交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服务、旅居服务、汽车后市场服务、入境消费等重点领域，从优化服 务供给、推进先行先试、创新消费场景、加强人才培养等方面发力，激发发展活力。二是聚焦演出服务、体育赛事服务、情绪式体验式服务等潜力领域，从健 全激励机制、优化安全管理、培育优质品牌、建设平台载体等方面着手，培育发展动能。三是通过健全标准体系、加强信用建设、强化财政金融支持等，加强 对培育服务消费新增长点的支持保障。 2026 年"国补"继续，"两新"政策优化。 2025 年 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes that the "transformation bull market" has significant potential, driven by the downward shift of risk-free returns, capital market reforms, and China's economic transition, suggesting that value stocks may see a crucial turning point after years of decline and valuation compression [1] Economic Transition and Profit Improvement - By Q4 2025, the economic transition is expected to accelerate, with the new economic growth center notably rising and expanding from AI to sectors like overseas markets, resource products, and service consumption [2] - The emerging technology industry is characterized by strong supply and demand, with an increasing number of internal segments experiencing price hikes [2] - Four structural features of profit growth in Q4 are identified: 1. Emerging economies remain the primary high-growth area for Q4 performance, with significant increases in electricity consumption in the tech service sector [2] 2. Profit share from mid-to-lower manufacturing is increasing, benefiting from improved inflation and smooth cost transmission from the new economy [2] 3. Large and mid-cap companies show greater profit growth elasticity, with improved production expectations and orders [2] 4. High-tech exports maintain high growth rates, particularly in semiconductors, automobiles, and power equipment, with emerging markets driving exports more than developed markets [2] Technology and Manufacturing Insights - The growth in technology and manufacturing is driven by increased AI penetration and accelerated overseas expansion [3] - Emerging technology sectors are experiencing a surge in demand due to rising AI-related business penetration across various industries [3] - In the new round of easing, industrial construction in emerging market countries is expected to accelerate, benefiting China's strong industrial production efficiency [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with revised profit expectations and low crowding, such as non-bank financials, batteries, electronics, machinery, two-wheeled vehicles, and commercial vehicles [4] - Two dimensions are used to assess sectors where stock prices have not fully reflected current profit expectation revisions: 1. Profit-stock price matching: sectors like batteries, components, shipbuilding, motorcycles, and engineering machinery have seen profit expectations revised upward but stock performance lagging since November 2025 [4] 2. Profit-crowding matching: sectors like non-bank financials, machinery, and electronics have upward revisions in profit expectations but limited stock price increases [4]

Group 1: Strategic Importance of Consumption - "Boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand" has become a core national strategy to drive sustainable and high-quality economic development, addressing external challenges and internal structural contradictions[1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, reflecting a shift from cyclical policy options to a national strategic task[2] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP has exceeded 50%, indicating that consumption has replaced investment as the main driver of economic growth[2] Group 2: Current Consumption Landscape - The service consumption share has increased to 46.15%, with significant growth in green, smart, and digital consumption[2] - Rural residents' per capita consumption expenditure reached 56.48% of urban levels, indicating a gradual narrowing of the urban-rural consumption gap[2] - The average annual growth rate of per capita disposable income since 2016 has been 6.53%, with per capita disposable income projected to reach 36,200 yuan by 2025[23] Group 3: International Comparisons and Lessons - China's household consumption rate is only 39.1%, ranking among the lowest globally, compared to an average of 56.6% for the world and 52% for middle-income economies[20] - Successful international models highlight the importance of institutional guarantees, income foundations, supply innovation, and expectation management in boosting consumption[3] - Japan's "lost three decades" and Germany's stable employment and social security systems provide valuable lessons for creating a consumption-friendly environment[3] Group 4: Policy Recommendations and Risks - The report suggests a policy framework focusing on enhancing consumer capacity on the demand side and fostering new supply on the supply side, targeting areas like AI+ consumption and green consumption[4] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy measures and uncertainties in the capital market, which could hinder consumption growth[4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but includes detailed valuation metrics for various indices and sectors, indicating a mixed outlook based on historical percentiles [2][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant valuation metrics for various indices, with the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 22.5x and PB at 1.9x, indicating it is at the 83rd and 50th historical percentiles respectively [2][5]. - The report identifies sectors with high PE and PB valuations, such as real estate, automation equipment, and electronics, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2][7]. - The report tracks the mid-cycle economic conditions across various industries, noting price fluctuations in the photovoltaic and battery sectors, as well as trends in consumer electronics and financial services [2][3][6]. Valuation Summary A-Share Valuation - The CSI All Share PE is 22.5x, with a PB of 1.9x, positioned at the 83rd and 50th historical percentiles [2][5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index PE is 11.7x, PB is 1.3x, at the 61st and 41st percentiles [2][5]. - The ChiNext Index PE is 42.6x, PB is 5.7x, at the 41st and 67th percentiles [2][5]. Industry Valuation - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include real estate, automation equipment, and electronics (semiconductors) [2][7]. - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include industrial metals and electronics (semiconductors) [2][7]. - The white goods industry is noted for having both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile, indicating potential undervaluation [2][7]. Mid-Cycle Economic Tracking - In the new energy sector, the report notes a 9.2% decline in upstream polysilicon futures prices, while downstream battery prices increased by 3.4% [2][3]. - The semiconductor sector shows a 0.5% increase in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, indicating positive momentum [3]. - The insurance sector reports a 7.4% year-on-year growth in premium income, although growth has slowed compared to previous months [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report details fluctuations in the steel and cement markets, with rebar prices down by 0.2% and cement prices down by 0.6% [3]. - In the consumer sector, pork prices have decreased by 5.2%, reflecting supply pressures ahead of the Spring Festival [3]. - The report also highlights a 50.9% year-on-year increase in new wind power installations, indicating strong growth in renewable energy [2][3].

日前，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，12项举措覆盖旅居、入境消 费、家政服务等重点服务消费领域。深圳市也于近日出台行动计划推动智能家居适配国产芯片与 AI接入，大力促进家居消费。一系列政策密集落地，为服务消费提质扩容按下"加速键"。 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 让服务消费新政真正落地，既要做好"加法"，也要做好"减法"。加法方面，各地要结合实际出台 配套措施，完善标准体系与信用体系，加大财政金融对市场主体的支持，培育更多优质服务品 牌；企业要紧跟消费趋势，用技术创新打造更多消费新场景，提升服务质量。减法方面，要清理 消费领域的不合理限制，放宽市场准入，破除行业壁垒，让更多市场主体参与到服务消费供给中 来。 服务消费连着经济发展，更连着民生福祉。唯有把"提质惠民"放在核心位置，让政策红利转化为 百姓看得见、摸得着的消费体验，才能真正激发服务消费的内生动力，让服务消费成为扩大内 需、推动高质量发展的持久引擎。 本文原载于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's recent issuance of the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption" aims to optimize and expand service supply, enhance service consumption quality, and stimulate domestic demand through 12 targeted policy measures [1][5]. Group 1: Key Policy Measures - The 12 policy measures focus on invigorating key sectors, nurturing potential areas, and strengthening support systems to activate domestic demand and inject strong momentum into high-quality development [1][5]. - Policies include transforming transportation lines into cultural and industrial corridors, enhancing tourism through railway integration, and facilitating visa processes to convert inbound traffic into consumption growth [3][4]. Group 2: Service Consumption Trends - The vibrant consumption landscape during the Spring Festival reflects China's consumption structure transformation, with service retail sales growing by 5.5% year-on-year in 2025, and per capita service consumption expenditure reaching 46.1% [3]. - Emerging trends in service consumption include significant growth in cultural, recreational, and travel sectors, driven by new business models and local IP popularity [3][4]. Group 3: Forward-looking and Inclusive Policies - The policies demonstrate foresight and inclusivity by addressing new consumer demands in performances, sports events, and experiential services, allowing for regulatory flexibility and support for new business models [4]. - Measures include enabling eligible performance groups to transition to public welfare units and incorporating experiential service professions into national classifications, fostering a conducive environment for new consumption demands [4]. Group 4: Comprehensive Support Framework - The policies aim to establish a comprehensive support network through improved standards, credit systems, and financial backing, addressing industry challenges related to service quality and consumer rights [4][5]. - This dual approach of optimizing supply and providing institutional support is designed to encourage consumer confidence and stimulate market activity, aligning consumer needs with industrial upgrades [4][5].

Group 1: Real Estate Sector - Recent performance of AH real estate stocks has outperformed market indices, with the Hong Kong real estate index rising by 7.3% and the A-share real estate index increasing by 5.5% from January 19 to 29 [2] - The valuation recovery of real estate stocks is driven by low valuations and multiple factors, including improved liquidity in Hong Kong and expectations of marginal improvement in the real estate fundamentals [2] - The period until March is seen as a window for policy and market recovery, which may support continued valuation recovery for real estate stocks [2] Group 2: Consumer Services - The State Council has issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on six key areas and three potential sectors [3] - The plan aims to enhance service consumption, which is expected to drive a shift from online to offline spending, benefiting related industries such as dining, tourism, and retail [3] - The long-term outlook for service consumption in China is positive, with significant growth potential as consumer demand continues to evolve [3] Group 3: Fixed Income and Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market has seen a resurgence, with a 7.69% increase in the convertible bond index, outperforming major stock indices [4] - The market is benefiting from seasonal stock market trends and inflows into "fixed income plus" products, indicating a strong trading environment for convertible bonds [4] - The focus is shifting towards trading attributes as the investment value in convertible bonds diminishes [4] Group 4: Utilities Sector - The demand for natural gas in China's manufacturing sector is expected to grow moderately, with a 2% annual growth rate from 2026 to 2028, but with significant structural differentiation [6] - Emerging manufacturing sectors are projected to see the highest demand growth, while traditional high-energy-consuming industries are expected to decline [6] - The transformation of the city gas industry towards comprehensive energy services presents core opportunities for companies capable of adapting to these changes [6] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector - Zai Lab is recognized as a leading player in the T-cell engager (TCE) field, with its product ZG006 expected to achieve significant domestic and international sales [7] - The company has four innovative drugs already on the market, providing a sustainable cash flow to support ongoing research and development [7] - The target price for Zai Lab is set at 166.16 yuan, reflecting strong growth potential in the TCE market [7] Group 6: Electric Equipment and New Energy - TBEA is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment in 2026, with multiple business segments entering a growth phase [8] - The company is projected to see increased demand for its power transmission and transformation equipment due to global shortages [8] - The target price for TBEA is set at 33.31 yuan, indicating strong earnings potential in the coming years [8] Group 7: Social Media Sector - Meta's Q4 2025 revenue grew by 24% year-on-year to $59.9 billion, driven by significant improvements in advertising efficiency due to AI [9] - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to reach between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, exceeding market expectations [9] - The introduction of new AI-driven products is anticipated to further enhance revenue growth in 2026 [9] Group 8: Education Sector - TAL Education reported a 27% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 FY26, driven by strong growth in its K12 business [11] - The company has maintained a high operating profit margin, significantly exceeding market expectations [11] - The outlook for TAL Education remains positive, with continued growth anticipated in its educational services [11] Group 9: Agriculture Sector - Shennong Group is expected to face a decline in net profit for 2025 due to falling pig prices, but maintains a strong growth outlook due to cost advantages [10] - The company is positioned as a rare growth and financially stable entity within the current pig cycle [10] - The target price for Shennong Group remains favorable, reflecting its potential for recovery and growth [10]