Core Viewpoint - The recent guidance from the People's Bank of China and other departments aims to enhance financial support for consumption, establishing a multi-tiered financial service system to meet diverse financing needs and stimulate high-quality consumption growth [1][2]. Group 1: Key Areas of Focus - The guidance outlines 19 key measures across six areas: enhancing consumer capacity, expanding financial supply in consumption sectors, unlocking consumer potential, improving consumption supply efficiency, optimizing the consumption environment, and ensuring policy support [2]. - The focus is on three main consumption areas: goods consumption, service consumption, and new consumption, with specific strategies to activate market potential in these sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Support Mechanisms - The current financial service system includes banks, consumer finance companies, and auto finance companies, with credit support being the primary channel, complemented by bond and equity financing [4]. - The guidance emphasizes the need for banks to optimize credit products and enhance support for first-time loans, renewals, and credit loans to improve the sustainability of consumer financial services [4][5]. Group 3: Enhancing Consumer Environment - Improving the consumer environment is crucial for stimulating consumption, with measures to optimize payment services, strengthen credit systems, and protect consumer rights [6]. - The guidance highlights the importance of increasing residents' income levels and improving consumption infrastructure to support market expansion and quality enhancement [5][6].

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the importance of boosting consumption as a key point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing economic growth, with the central economic work conference prioritizing this task for the year [1] - The People's Bank of China and five other departments have jointly issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, outlining 19 measures across six key areas [1][2] - The guidelines emphasize the need for a multi-layered financial service system to support consumption growth, coordinating various financial resources to meet diverse financing needs [1][3] Group 2 - Experts believe that service consumption has significant growth potential, with current goods consumption reaching high levels, while service consumption remains relatively underdeveloped compared to developed countries [2] - The guidelines specifically support the development of service consumption by increasing financing for sectors such as wholesale and retail, catering, and elder care services [2][3] - The introduction of new financial tools aimed at enhancing supply-side support for service consumption is highlighted as a key direction for macroeconomic policy [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the establishment of a multi-tiered consumer finance service system in China, which has been well-developed over the years, with credit support playing a major role [4] - The guidelines stress the need to diversify consumer financing channels, enhancing credit products and supporting qualified enterprises in issuing bonds [4][5] - The focus is also on improving the efficiency of consumption supply, particularly in infrastructure projects related to aging, sports facilities, and logistics [6] Group 4 - The guidelines aim to enhance residents' income levels as a crucial support for stimulating consumption potential [5][6] - Protecting consumer rights is also emphasized, with measures to optimize payment services and strengthen credit system construction in the consumption sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and five other departments have issued guidelines to enhance consumer spending through financial support, focusing on three key areas: goods consumption, service consumption, and new consumption types [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - The guidelines propose 19 key measures to enhance consumer capacity and expand financial supply, aiming to create a multi-layered financial service system to support consumption [1][2]. - The focus is on utilizing credit, bonds, and equity financing to stimulate consumption growth potential [1][2]. - The measures are designed to meet diverse financing needs of businesses and consumers, fostering a cycle where financial empowerment drives consumption, which in turn stimulates economic growth [1][2]. Group 2: Key Areas of Consumption - The guidelines emphasize three main areas for financial support: goods consumption, service consumption, and new consumption types [3][4]. - For goods consumption, the focus is on innovative credit products tailored to consumer needs and enhancing support for trade enterprises transitioning to domestic sales [3]. - In service consumption, increased financing support is directed towards sectors like retail, hospitality, and elder care, with a specific emphasis on cultural, tourism, and educational services [3][4]. Group 3: New Consumption Types - The guidelines encourage the exploration of financial support channels for digital, green, and health-related consumption, promoting financial innovation to cater to these emerging markets [4][6]. - The establishment of a robust multi-tiered consumer finance service system is highlighted, with credit support playing a crucial role alongside bond and equity financing [6]. Group 4: Enhancing Consumer Capacity - Improving residents' income levels is identified as a key factor in stimulating consumption potential, with measures to support employment and wealth management [7]. - The guidelines also address the need for improved consumption infrastructure, particularly in logistics and supply chain efficiency, to enhance market expansion [7]. Group 5: Optimizing Consumption Environment - The guidelines propose optimizing payment services, building a credit system in the consumption sector, and enhancing consumer rights protection to create a better consumption environment [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant growth of China's consumption market, which reached 48.8 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [10][11] - Service retail sales in China grew by 6.2% in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points, indicating a shift towards service consumption [10][18] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to exceed 50% by 2025, driven by policy support and technological innovation, with sales growth projected at nearly 30% [23][71] Group 2 - The traditional consumption sectors are experiencing diverse growth, particularly in the automotive sector, where NEVs are the main growth driver, with sales of 1.29 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [21][22] - The home appliance market saw significant growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 1.95 trillion yuan, a 5.6% increase from the previous year, supported by government policies [28][30] - The liquor industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing stable revenue, while overall production has been declining since 2016 [33][39] Group 3 - The report identifies emerging consumption trends, such as the pet economy, which is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increased pet ownership and higher spending per pet [59][60] - The潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 24% from 2022 to 2026, with retail sales projected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026 [62][74] - The beauty economy, encompassing cosmetics, personal care, and medical aesthetics, is also expanding, with the cosmetics retail sales reaching 114.9 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a 3.2% year-on-year increase [69][70]

与居民日常生活息息相关的餐饮、家政、托育、旅游、体育等领域的服务消费，一头连着经济，一头连 着民生，于当下经济提质和长远民生改善都具有深远意义。 不仅是县域地区的服务消费有着增长潜力，城镇地区服务消费需求也有广阔市场。中国人民银行近期发 布的《2024年第四季度城镇储户问卷调查报告》显示，在居民选择的未来三个月准备增加支出的项目 中，前四项均为服务性消费支出，分别为教育（30.5%）、医疗保健（29.9%）、旅游（25.2%）、社交 文化和娱乐（23.7%）。 短期来看，服务消费不仅展现出强劲的增长势头，更在消费格局中占据愈发重要的位置，最新的统计数 据直观印证了这一点。 据国家统计局发布的数据，2025年一季度，居民人均服务性消费支出同比增长5.4%，占全部居民人均 消费支出的比重达43.4%，比去年同期提高0.1个百分点。 长期来看，随着居民消费观念升级与数字化转型加速，服务消费将向智能化、个性化、绿色化方向纵深 拓展，在释放内需潜力、优化经济结构、增进民生福祉等方面释放更持久的动能。 作为消费增长的"第二曲线"，服务消费正加速向县域市场下沉并孕育出新动能、新机遇。 "随着城镇化水平持续提高、年轻人返乡就 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a cautious approach in the current market environment, suggesting a focus on defensive sectors such as banking due to ongoing tariff negotiations and economic pressures [3][10][12] - It highlights the potential for bond yields to reach new lows, recommending patience in positioning for left-side opportunities, particularly when the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7% after a 10 basis point rate cut [3][12] - The report notes a significant recovery in the domestic stock market, driven by short-term high-elasticity targets, with small-cap stocks becoming the core focus for capital [10][12] Group 2 - The report outlines key events impacting the market, including the U.S. tariff increase on steel and aluminum, and the People's Bank of China's liquidity support measures [9][10] - It tracks market performance indicators, noting a rise in average daily trading volume to 12,088.54 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity and investor interest [22] - The report anticipates continued recovery in U.S. markets, driven by stable earnings from tech giants and a favorable environment during the tariff policy window [13]

分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 | 资产类别 | 核心逻辑观点 | 配置建议 | | --- | --- | --- | | A股大盘 | > 颠簸与变局将近,以稳应变: | 中佳 | | | ◆ 国内经济基本面:关税反复,总需求回落压力上升,需关注政策发力的对冲效果; | | | | ◆ 资金面:A股成交额回落至"9.24"以来的低位,市场观望情绪上升 · | | | | ◆ 政策面:短期内以落实已部署正常政策为主,下半年或有增量政策; | | | | ◆ 外部环境:关税谈判期仅剩月余,不确定性有抬头的风险,且不可预测性较强。 | | | | > 关税豁免期临近结束(7月8日),变盘节点临近,6-7月或先抑后扬:关税豁免期仅剩月余,不确定性 | | | | 抗动或上升,目市场成交活跃度回落,市场临沂变盘。此外,结构上或将出现风格变化,今年以来市场 | | | | 缩圈至更为极致的"杠铃"策略 -- 大盘权重+微盘,即以银行为代表的权重以及以微盛股指数为代表 | | | | 的方向表现更为突出。但这一趋势当前面临 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 National "Service Consumption Season" and "Su Xin Service · Enjoy Life" event was launched in Nanjing, aiming to enhance service consumption across various sectors and improve consumer experiences through over 160 key activities [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was initiated with participation from 12 central departments, 13 national industry associations, and various local and leading platform enterprises [2]. - Jiangsu province introduced a "Service Consumption Benefit Package" focusing on sectors such as elderly care, catering, and tourism to enhance consumer welfare [2]. - Nanjing released the first edition of the "Ning Enjoy Service" consumption guide, covering 12 fields and featuring nearly 200 selected service points [2]. Group 2: Market Engagement - The "Wander Su Suitable Circle" themed market featured five interactive experience zones, showcasing elements like health consumption, cultural entertainment, and digital consumption [3]. - The market included various brands and activities, such as Michelin food stalls and outdoor camping experiences, promoting a vibrant service consumption atmosphere [3][4]. Group 3: Sustainability Initiatives - The event emphasized green and low-carbon development, with carbon emissions scientifically measured and offset to achieve carbon neutrality [4]. - A circular economy market was set up to promote sustainable consumption practices, featuring digital recycling and second-hand products [4]. Group 4: Innovation in Service Consumption - The International Business Daily highlighted ten innovative service consumption case studies, with Nanjing's Hongshan Forest Zoo recognized for its successful integration of experience, IP, and fusion economies [5]. - Nanjing's service consumption development is supported by a robust policy framework and a commitment to high-quality growth, positioning the city as a leader in service consumption innovation [5][6]. Group 5: Future Plans - Nanjing has outlined four strategic blueprints for service consumption, focusing on brand development, innovative scene creation, activity matrix construction, and enhancing digital service capabilities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The current consumption market in China is showing enhanced vitality and heat, but there are still constraints to sustained improvement. Future policies should better coordinate the relationship between benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, supply innovation and demand upgrading, as well as current and long-term considerations to effectively expand consumption [1]. Group 1: Consumption Characteristics - The characteristics of consumption in China are marked by rapid growth, new products, new business formats, and new scenarios [2]. - Consumption is maintaining a moderate growth trend, with significant vitality in the market. Key features include rapid growth in service consumption, the emergence of new products and business models, and the rise of consumption in county areas [3]. Group 2: Service Consumption Growth - Service consumption is experiencing good growth, driven by policies that promote service consumption and the expansion of consumption scenarios. The focus is shifting from separate development of categories like dining and tourism to integrated and multi-faceted development [4]. - In 2024, China's service retail sales are expected to grow by 6.2% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 3 percentage points. Per capita spending on services is projected to increase by 7.4%, accounting for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous year [4]. Group 3: New Products and Business Models - New technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence are accelerating consumption innovation, leading to rapid development of new products, business formats, and scenarios. The smart home market is expected to reach 780 billion yuan in 2024, with smartphone shipments projected at approximately 286 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6]. - Online retail is also thriving, with a 6.5% growth in physical goods online retail expected in 2024, outpacing the overall retail growth by 3 percentage points. Live streaming and instant retail sales are showing strong growth, with sales increasing by 19.1% and 13.8% respectively in the first three quarters of 2024 [6]. Group 4: County-Level Consumption - Since 2023, consumption in county areas, particularly in lower-tier cities and rural regions, has become more active. The coverage of county-level tourist attractions has increased significantly, with a rise from 73% in 2012 to 93% in 2023 [7]. - Travel orders from lower-tier cities are expected to grow by nearly 20% in 2024, with outbound travel ticket purchases from residents in third-tier cities and below accounting for over 30% of the total, more than doubling from the previous year [7]. Group 5: New Consumer Groups - The influx of residents from Hong Kong and Macau into mainland cities is creating new consumption dynamics. In 2024, the number of Hong Kong residents traveling north is expected to reach 81.91 million, with total spending exceeding 55.7 billion yuan, both up over 50% from the previous year [8]. - The optimization of visa-free policies has led to a significant increase in inbound tourism, with the number of eligible individuals rising by 113.5% year-on-year in 2024. The diversity of tourist sources and the appeal of lesser-known destinations are also increasing [8].

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of domestic industrial production and exports has drawn attention, particularly in the context of international capital de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and tariff impacts [1] Group 1: Market Opportunities - Domestic demand is seen as a necessary choice for stabilizing growth policies, with a positive outlook on real estate (sales, urban investment), service consumption, and small, high-frequency discretionary consumption [1] - The technology sector is expected to perform well throughout the year, with a focus on rebound opportunities in AI after adjustments [1] - The decline in domestic risk-free interest rates, combined with uncertainties from tariff impacts, suggests that precious metals and public utilities can serve as defensive investments [1]