Core Insights - Wujiang's foreign trade total value reached 170.83 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [1] - Exports amounted to 136.4 billion yuan, increasing by 9.6%, while imports were 34.43 billion yuan [1] Trade Structure - General trade accounted for over half of the total trade, with a value of 85.99 billion yuan, growing by 4.7%, representing 50.3% of total trade [1] - Processing trade saw a significant increase, with a total of 43.86 billion yuan, growing by 15.5%, and accounting for 25.7% of total trade, up 2 percentage points from the previous year [1] Enterprise Performance - There were 4,061 enterprises engaged in import and export activities, an increase of 262 from the previous year [1] - Private enterprises accounted for nearly 60% of the total trade, with 3,422 private enterprises contributing 100.58 billion yuan, a growth of 4.7%, representing 58.9% of total trade [1] - Foreign-invested enterprises also showed rapid growth, with a total trade value of 70.25 billion yuan, increasing by 9.5%, accounting for 41.1% of total trade, contributing an additional 3.8 percentage points to foreign trade [1] Trade Partners - The share of trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative continued to rise, with a total trade value of 80.64 billion yuan, growing by 9.6%, and accounting for 47.2% of total trade, up from 45.9% in the previous year [1] Export Products - Nearly 70% of exports were electromechanical products, totaling 93.23 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.6%, representing 68.4% of total exports [2] - Computer exports reached 28.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2%, while electrical equipment exports surged to 15.72 billion yuan, increasing by 48.2%, contributing 4.1 percentage points to total exports [2] - Labor-intensive products accounted for 35.23 billion yuan in exports, growing by 3.8%, representing 25.8% of total exports [2]

2025 年金融市场改革通过基准指引强化市场约束，推动基金从规模导 向转变为利益导向，ETF 追涨现象明显，IPO 节奏偏紧，减持处于低位， 明年关注高景气出口链、周期股和消费反转领域。 十五五，攻坚牛——2026 年度策略 20251217 摘要 中国经济在"十五"期间有望突破美国 GDP 的 70%，工业增加值已达 美国的 1.6 倍，得益于研发投入和工业体系建设，打破"日本化"叙事， 展示高质量发展基础。 美国面临债务加剧和财政赤字挑战，长期经济潜在增长率或仅为 1.2%，政府债务率上升引发对美债安全性的担忧，促使海外投资者减少 美债配置，央行增持黄金。 未来五年，中国投资机会集中在产业升级、科技创新和消费提升领域， 高比例研发投入和完整工业体系为应对外部技术封锁提供坚实基础。 中国将通过优化提升传统产业，培育量子科技、生物制造、氢能与核聚 变、脑机接口等新兴产业，并强化基础设施建设，以适应新的发展阶段 需求。 中国出口份额不断创新高，对美依赖度已降至 10%以下，通过多元化策 略保障出口韧性，贸易顺差持续扩大，竞争力显著增强。 为应对消费疲软，中国将提高居民消费率作为主要目标，优化"两新" 政策，加强 ...

Core Insights - The mechanical and electrical industry is undergoing a profound transformation driven by internet technology, with traditional supply models being replaced by smart supply chains, emphasizing efficiency, transparency, and innovation [1] Group 1: Pain Points of Traditional Supply Models - Information silos hinder efficiency, with order, inventory, and logistics data scattered across multiple systems, leading to a high error rate of 15% due to manual verification [1] - Slow response times result in an average of 7 days from order to delivery, causing missed market opportunities [1] - Fixed service boundaries limit offerings to product transactions, with customer repurchase rates below 30% [1] Group 2: How Internet Technology Restructures Supply Chains - Data transparency is achieved through IoT sensors that collect real-time operational data, combined with cloud-based ERP systems, resulting in a 40% increase in inventory turnover and a 65% decrease in customer complaints [3] - Intelligent forecasting shifts from reactive to proactive service by using AI algorithms to analyze historical orders and market trends, improving stock accuracy to 92% and tripling emergency order processing efficiency [3] - Service extension transforms the business model from selling products to offering solutions, including remote operation and maintenance platforms that enhance customer lifetime value by 2.8 times, with service revenue exceeding 35% [4] Group 3: Urgency for Transformation - The technology barrier has lowered, with SaaS tools allowing small and medium enterprises to achieve digital management for as little as a thousand yuan per month [6] - Customer preferences have shifted, with 85% of buyers prioritizing suppliers that offer online quotes and progress tracking [6] - Government incentives for smart manufacturing are available, with potential subsidies of up to one million yuan for transforming companies [6] - Recommended actions include prioritizing lightweight digital tools, collaborating with third-party technology platforms, and fostering a data-driven decision-making culture [6] Group 4: Industry Response to Transformation - Chinese mechanical and electrical suppliers are actively considering internet-driven transformation, utilizing offline foundations and online channels, including mini-programs for e-commerce, public accounts for promotion, and community marketing for precision targeting [7]

文/冉学东 12月16日，美元对人民币中间价下调至7.0602，下调54个基点，美元对人民币中间价从本月初的 7.0759，半个月的时间里下行达157个基点。 以上陡峭下行，引导人民币汇率持续升值，在离岸人民币市场上，12月16日，人民币升破7.04关口，本 月连破7.06、7.05、7.04等大关，市场人士预计，人民币还将继续升值，可能在明年上半年破7。 对于人民币目前的陡峭升值，有一个数据具有强支撑力，这就是今年以来的贸易顺差。 11月的外贸顺差按美元计同比增长5.9%。不仅一改10月下滑的颓势，且将今年前11月的累计顺差推升 至超1万亿美元，这是历史上首次。今年是中国最强出口年，进口也连续6个月正增长。尽管国内需求不 足，但正值海外需求强劲，强劲的出口无疑是支撑中国经济的底气，也是影响人民币汇率的最大因素。 疫情以后中国出口爆发式增长，此后每年都为外贸愁，但是外贸格局仍然是出口增速远超进口增速，从 出口结构看，机电产品作为出口主力，前11个月出口额增长8.8%，占出口总值的60.9%。其中，集成电 路出口增长25.6%，汽车出口增长17.6%，高附加值产品占比增加，低附加值的出口已经远去了，更加 令人欣 ...

Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-demand gap for the midstream sector improved, with the demand-investment growth rate difference rising to 7.6% in November from 6.4% in October[1] - Midstream demand growth was 8.9% in November, down from 9.3% in October, while midstream investment growth fell to 1.3%[3] - The demand-investment growth rate difference for midstream has been increasing since May 2024 and turned positive in March 2025[3] Group 2: Future Projections - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth rate difference is likely to remain positive, indicating potential price stabilization in the next two years[2] - The midstream PPI (Producer Price Index) is expected to stop declining and start rising, with a notable month-on-month increase of 0.04% in November, the first positive change since June 2024[4] - If the midstream PPI stabilizes, the year-on-year PPI is likely to continue rising, positively impacting midstream ROE (Return on Equity)[4] Group 3: Economic Data Overview - November's industrial value-added growth rate was 4.8%, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.44%[20] - Retail sales growth in November was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, indicating weak consumer demand[22] - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.3% year-on-year in November, showing ongoing challenges in the property market[27]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 1 、分析方法：以需求增速与投资增速的差值衡量供需矛盾，核心逻辑是若需求增速持续超过投资增速，随 着产能逐渐折旧退出，供需之间的相对关系，有望从"供强需弱"转为"供弱需强"。 2 、指标构建：关键在于需求。将社零、出口、固投与行业层面的上游、中游、下游进行匹配，得到上、 中、下游的需求与投资增速差。 3 、当前现象： 11 月，对于中游，需求与投资增速差进一步上行至 7.6% ，前值为 6.4% ，这一差值自 2024 年 5 月开始持续上行，自 2025 年 3 月开始增速差转正。而上游与下游，观察到截至 10 月的情况， 增速差均尚未超过 0 。 4 、未来推演：从历史数据来看，中游需求与投资增速差持续回升，且增速差能回升至 0 以上，有希望看 到在未来 2 年的时间段内的某个时点，中游 PPI 定基指数止跌回升（即，价格止跌）。我们预计， 2026 年很有可能看到中游 PPI 定基指数持续止跌上行。 事实上，从 2025 年 11 月的数据来看，中游 PPI 环比 出现了久违的环比转正（ 2024 年 6 月 ...

曾几何时，淄博以"鲁C"的荣耀，稳坐山东经济第三把交椅。上世纪90年代其GDP一度跻身全国前30。 然而，随着时代的发展，经济发展的赛道已然切换。 当山东"十五五"规划擘画青岛迈向两万亿、潍坊冲刺万亿、临沂与济宁加速向万亿级城市迈进的全新蓝 图时，淄博，这位昔日的工业强市，却在这份蓝图的关键位置悄然缺席。 淄博日报 2018年成为淄博经济的分水岭，因统计口径调整和落后产能淘汰，其GDP一夜之间骤降近1500亿元。在 山东省内的排名下滑至第7位。 近年来，淄博经济增长面临一定压力。2023年与2024年，全市GDP虽分别实现4561.79亿元和4884.08亿 元，但其增速连续两年低于山东省平均水平。不过，2025年前三季度，GDP达3902.42亿元，增速实现 反超。 相比之下，临沂今年前三季度GDP已达5150.06亿元，济宁4711.6亿元，过去两年间，两市的增速也均稳 定达到或高于全省平均水平，相较淄博领先优势持续扩大。更令人警醒的是，曾经差距明显的菏泽，如 今与淄博的差距已缩至仅103.51亿元，紧追不舍的态势十分明显，淄博传统产业占比偏高的结构性矛盾 日益凸显。 图 黄金时代 淄博的工业基因深植于其 ...

文 | 王庆峰 不久前，我国前11个月货物贸易进出口数据公布，其中一组数据引发全球关注—— 中国货物贸易顺差首次突破1万亿美元大关，达到1.076万亿美元，同比增长21.7%，已超过去年全年创下的9920亿美元纪录。 在外部环境复杂多变的大背景下，中国前11个月的货物贸易为何能实现巨额顺差？应该如何正确认识和理解这一顺差？中国外贸又该如何实现更高质量的发 展？ A THE REAL t 10 8 2 a Wi a 198 -16 N all 65Te EANY 2 20 盘 衣 速 p .4 （一） 回望今年上半年，随着美国发动关税战，唱衰中国外贸的杂音不绝于耳。 然而，中国外贸不仅没有陷入部分西方舆论预言的"下滑泥潭"，反而逆势突围、稳中有进，用实打实的增长数据印证了自身的实力、韧性与活力。 特别是创下历史新高的货物贸易顺差，集中体现了中国在全球贸易中的综合优势。这一成绩背后，是一系列结构性变化的发生—— 新兴市场多点开花。今年前11个月，受关税战影响，中国对美出口同比下降18.9%。与此同时，东盟超越美国成为中国第一大贸易伙伴、欧盟成为第二大贸 易伙伴，有效对冲了传统市场波动的影响 。此外，中国对非洲、拉 ...

Core Insights - Zhejiang's total import and export value reached 5.06 trillion yuan from January to November, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Exports amounted to 3.83 trillion yuan, growing by 7.1%, while imports were 1.23 trillion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.1% [1] - Zhejiang's import and export, export, and import values accounted for 12.3%, 15.7%, and 7.4% of the national totals, ranking third, second, and sixth respectively [1] Trade Market Performance - ASEAN solidified its position as Zhejiang's largest trading market with a total trade value of 786.81 billion yuan, growing by 15.4%, contributing 40.9% to the province's overall import and export growth [1] - The EU is the second-largest trading market for Zhejiang, with a trade value of 770.14 billion yuan, increasing by 8.3%, including imports and exports with France reaching 83.84 billion yuan, up by 7.3% [1] - Exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa grew by 16.1%, 10.0%, 12.0%, and 15.4% respectively [1] - Total trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 2.90 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5%, accounting for 57.3% of the province's total import and export value [1] Private Sector Performance - Private enterprises' import and export values reached 4.16 trillion yuan, growing by 7.0%, and accounted for 82.1% of the province's total, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Exports from private enterprises were 3.30 trillion yuan, up by 8.4%, while imports were 858.61 billion yuan, growing by 1.7% [2] - Foreign-invested enterprises reported an import and export value of 619.78 billion yuan, increasing by 2.8%, with exports at 394.41 billion yuan, up by 2.3%, and imports at 225.37 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% [2] Export Product Trends - The export of electromechanical products reached 1.79 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8%, with "new three samples" products exporting 120.2 billion yuan, a significant increase of 23.3% [2] - Solar products, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries have seen continuous growth for 4, 12, and 20 months respectively [2] - Labor-intensive products exported amounted to 1.13 trillion yuan, growing by 3.9%, capturing 30.5% of the national market share [2] - High-tech product exports reached 324.35 billion yuan, increasing by 10.7%, with high-end equipment exports at 129.73 billion yuan, growing by 16.8% [2] Import Product Trends - Electromechanical product imports grew significantly, reaching 218.42 billion yuan, an increase of 21.8%, with aircraft and other aviation equipment, as well as computers and components, growing by 122.9% and 43.1% respectively [2] - Consumer goods imports totaled 143.46 billion yuan, growing by 8.7%, while agricultural product imports reached 112.04 billion yuan, increasing by 10.6% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the proactive measures taken by Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical and local authorities to address intellectual property (IP) disputes faced by companies venturing into overseas markets, transforming challenges into opportunities for international competitiveness [1][3]. Group 1: Mechanisms for IP Protection - Guilin City has established six IP protection assistance stations to create a collaborative protection framework, allowing companies to receive quick and professional guidance on overseas IP issues [3]. - Since 2025, 175 IP disputes have been successfully resolved before litigation, with an average mediation period reduced to 53 days [3]. Group 2: Tailored Services for Companies - The Guilin market regulatory bureau has provided over 200 instances of IP "fast track" services to companies, with 35 new key enterprises added to the database since 2025 [4]. - For Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical, a combination protection strategy involving copyright and trade secrets was developed, resulting in the company holding over 200 registered trademarks [4]. - Guilin Sanjin's successful appeal against the misclassification of its PCT patent as "abnormal" preserved its valuable patent assets, leading to 29 PCT international patents and 94 domestic invention patent applications [4]. Group 3: Risk Prevention and Early Warning - Guilin has established a pre-warning mechanism for overseas IP disputes, providing 37 notifications on trademark registration and 140 on PCT patent expiration risks to key enterprises [6]. - During international exhibitions, expert teams are deployed to assist 94 participating companies with pre-exhibition IP dispute checks and risk notifications [6].