1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton futures prices lacked effective drivers and retreated after a rally. The cotton market faced a complex situation with various factors influencing supply and demand, and the overall market sentiment was neutral [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,740 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session closing price of 13,730 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. CY2509 closed at 19,990 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.57% and a night - session closing price of 20,010 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.10%. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 68.04 cents/pound with a decline of 1.85%. The trading volume of CF2509 was 456,550 lots, an increase of 205,573 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 863,411 lots, a decrease of 12,095 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 11,405 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 21,776 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,273, a decrease of 29, and the effective forecast was 301, an increase of 6. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 3, a decrease of 1 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.33% compared to the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,760 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 15,153 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan or 0.25%. The price in Hebei was 15,109 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 yuan or 0.61%. The 3128B index was 15,154 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan or 0.30%. The international cotton index M was 76.83 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent or 0.73%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.20%, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan or - 0.10% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 70 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Local cotton spot trading was slightly better than last week, with most transactions based on locked basis prices. The overall basis remained stable. There were more pre - sale quotes for new cotton in the 2025/26 season in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price increase of pure - cotton yarn was less than that of cotton, and the cash - flow losses of spinning enterprises widened. Downstream demand was weak, and spinning enterprises were expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The all - cotton grey fabric market had light trading, and many fabric mills continued to cut production [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fell yesterday because the US cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season was 10.12 million acres, higher than the market average forecast of 9.8 million acres and the USDA's June supply - demand report forecast of 9.87 million acres. As of June 29, the US cotton sowing progress was 95%, compared with 97% in the same period last year and a 5 - year average of 98%. The good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 50%, up from 47% the previous week and the same as 50% in the same period last year [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market has experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year due to trade tensions and supply-demand dynamics, with domestic cotton prices gradually recovering after hitting a near six-year low [1][2] Group 1: Cotton Price Trends - Cotton prices fell to 13,527 yuan/ton on April 9, down 992 yuan/ton from the high point earlier in the year, but began to recover following easing trade tensions from the China-U.S. Geneva economic talks in May [1][2] - The average price of China's 3128B grade cotton is expected to reach 14,417 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, an increase of 317 yuan/ton compared to the first half [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Import Dynamics - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has raised concerns about the stability of the global cotton textile industry, leading to a significant increase in import cotton costs and a shift towards Brazilian cotton, which accounted for 45% of imports in the first half of 2024 [2] - By 2025, the proportion of U.S. cotton imports is expected to drop to 20%, while Brazilian cotton's share may rise to 57% [2] Group 3: Industry Restructuring and Innovation - The cotton textile industry is focusing on "new quality productivity" to reshape competitive advantages through supply chain resilience [4] - Xinjiang is actively promoting the development of the cotton and textile industry chain, aiming to enhance the local conversion rate of cotton and build industry clusters [4] - Companies are leveraging technological innovation and digital transformation to enhance production resilience, with initiatives like smart factories and AI-driven optimization [4] Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Strategy - Despite low revenue and profit levels in the cotton textile industry expected in the first half of 2025, structural adjustments such as capacity expansion and digital transformation are showing initial results [5] - The industry is encouraged to focus on high-quality development to address external uncertainties, emphasizing technological innovation and supply chain enhancement [5]

Group 1 - The global cotton market is entering a new production cycle, with major cotton-producing countries like China, Brazil, and Australia expected to increase their output [1] - China's cotton planting area is projected to reach 44.823 million acres by 2025, with Xinjiang's area growing by 3.3% year-on-year, benefiting from favorable weather conditions [1] - Domestic cotton market shows a nuanced situation, with import tariffs closing the import window, leading some companies to use domestic cotton, resulting in a reduction of cotton inventory and a tightening of high-grade cotton supply [1] Group 2 - Concerns about future cotton prices persist, with the market characterized by "large supply, stable consumption, strong support, and weak driving forces," leading to expectations of price fluctuations [2] - The new cotton basis and purchase prices are expected to be lower than in 2024, with long-term high basis levels likely unsustainable due to a global supply exceeding demand [2] Group 3 - The cotton textile industry is facing renewed pressure due to declining cotton prices and insufficient terminal demand, leading to a drop in average profit margins and effective demand [4] - Revenue and profit in the industry have fallen to their lowest levels in over a decade, with revenues for 2023-2024 projected to shrink to below one trillion yuan and total profits at only 21.7 billion yuan [4] - The operating profit margin has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, with the loss ratio expanding to 28.1%, marking a historical high [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market is expected to experience a significant increase in production, with major producing regions such as China, Brazil, and Australia anticipating higher yields. However, the cotton price may face downward pressure as new crops are harvested in October [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic cotton basis remains strong, reflecting structural supply-demand contradictions, particularly a shortage of high-grade cotton. The increase in domestic cotton usage is driven by tariff hikes that have forced some enterprises to switch to local cotton [3][4]. - The current cotton inventory is continuously depleting, leading to a marginal improvement in the cotton market fundamentals. However, the demand remains weak, particularly during the textile off-season from June to September, which could put pressure on the cotton basis [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Profitability - The cotton textile industry is facing significant challenges, including persistently low average profit margins and insufficient effective demand. This has led to an accelerated industry reshuffle, with the scale of cotton textile revenue expected to shrink to below one trillion yuan, marking a significant decline from previous years [5][6]. - The profit margin for large-scale cotton textile enterprises has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, indicating a continuous downward trend and the highest loss ratio in the industry [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Development Initiatives - Despite the current challenges, the cotton textile industry has a solid foundation and potential for long-term growth. The industry is encouraged to optimize its structure, enhance technological innovation, and focus on green development to maintain confidence and improve its image [7]. - The industry is expected to further align with macro policies, develop new productive forces, and deepen industrial transformation to promote high-quality development while preventing unhealthy competition [7].

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market is expected to experience a significant increase in production, with major producing regions such as China, Brazil, and Australia anticipating higher yields [1]. Domestic Market - Currently, the domestic cotton basis remains strong, with high-grade cotton in short supply. The increase in tariffs has forced some companies to switch to domestic cotton, leading to a continuous reduction in cotton inventory and a marginal improvement in the fundamentals. Experts believe that with the new crop coming in October, the cotton basis is likely to return, putting pressure on cotton prices [2][4]. - The cotton textile industry is facing severe challenges due to the dual pressures of raw material supply shocks and insufficient end demand. The first half of the year has seen significant pressure on the industry, leading to increased polarization among companies [3][8]. Global Cotton Production - The global cotton production is set to increase significantly, with new crop prices and basis expected to be lower than last year. The USDA balance sheet indicates a slight oversupply compared to demand, with external prices lower than U.S. planting costs but higher than Brazilian costs. Macro uncertainties such as tariffs and dollar credit will be major disruptive factors [6][8]. Industry Challenges - The cotton spinning industry is currently facing a prolonged low average profit margin, insufficient end demand, and complex international conditions, leading to an accelerated industry reshuffle. The revenue of large-scale cotton spinning enterprises is expected to shrink to below one trillion yuan, with their share of the textile industry dropping below 20%, a significant decline from the peak period in 2016 [8][9]. - The operating profit margin of large-scale cotton spinning enterprises has been continuously declining, with projections showing a drop from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in early 2025, marking a new low [9][10]. - The loss ratio among large-scale cotton spinning enterprises has further expanded, reaching 28.1% in early 2025, up from 22.5% in 2024, indicating a record high for industry losses [10]. Future Outlook - Despite the various external risks and challenges, the cotton spinning industry still possesses a solid foundation, numerous advantages, and significant potential for growth. The long-term positive trend of the industry is expected to remain unchanged. The industry aims to leverage macro policies, develop new productive forces, deepen industrial transformation, and promote high-quality development while enhancing self-discipline to prevent vicious competition [10].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 China International Cotton Conference" highlighted the need for the cotton industry in China to deepen reforms while consolidating its advantages, focusing on optimizing supply and promoting consumption through multiple channels to achieve a balance between production and demand [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Cotton plays a significant role in China's economy, with the country being a major producer and consumer, accounting for approximately 25% of global production and 33% of global consumption and textile exports [2]. - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, cotton production and consumption have stabilized around 6 million tons and 8 million tons, respectively, providing employment for nearly 17 million people [2]. Group 2: Price Volatility and Risk Management - Recent years have seen increased volatility in cotton prices due to multiple factors, leading many cotton-related enterprises to adopt financial tools such as futures and options for risk management [1][2]. - The cotton and yarn industries have been in a downward cycle for the past three years, compounded by trade disputes, posing significant challenges to enterprise survival and profitability [2]. - Enterprises face exposure risks and can utilize futures and options for hedging to manage raw material and finished goods inventory effectively [2][4]. Group 3: Financial Tools and Strategies - The cotton and yarn futures exhibit a strong correlation, allowing textile companies to establish virtual factories to lock in processing profits [3]. - The use of basis point pricing and rights-based trading has become common in the cotton textile industry, with cotton futures showing over 90% correlation with certain polyester futures [4]. - Flexible futures and options strategies can optimize hedging effectiveness, potentially lowering costs or increasing returns [4]. Group 4: Promoting Cotton Consumption - The industry is focusing on sustainable consumption amid global economic challenges and increasing tariff barriers, with "optimizing supply and promoting consumption" identified as key strategies [5][6]. - Enhancing cotton quality and introducing new technologies and management practices are essential for meeting the high-quality demands of the textile industry [6]. - The industry is shifting from product and capacity focus to brand and service development, aiming for high-quality growth that offers more valuable cooperation opportunities [6].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 16 日 棉花：关注外部市场影响 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 CY2509 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 13,495 19,715 | -0.18% -0.28% | 13530 19770 | 0.26% 0.28% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 67.9 | 0.55% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 252,297 | 17,649 | 794,398 | -6,587 | | | CY2509 | 手 | 6,521 | -1,999 | 19,858 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 10 日 棉花：继续受市场情绪影响 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | -0.23% | | | CF2509 CY2509 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 13,495 19,740 | 1.01% 0.56% | 13465 19695 | -0.22% | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 65.97 | 0.59% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 358,684 | 44,190 | 775,318 | 24,946 | | | CY2509 | 手 | 5,612 | -1,999 | 14,414 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The market sentiment improvement drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures [1] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Futures - CF2509 closed at 13,360 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.87%, and 13,435 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.56%. Its trading volume was 314,494 lots, an increase of 132,900 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 750,372 lots, an increase of 12,557 lots [2]. - CY2509 closed at 19,630 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.18%, and 19,685 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.28%. Its trading volume was 7,918 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 12,592 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2]. - ICE US cotton 07 closed at 65.58 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 0.40% [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,870, a decrease of 69 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 371, an increase of 2 [2]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, with no change [2]. Spot - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,596 yuan/ton, an increase of 144 yuan or 1.00% from the previous day [2]. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan or 0.84% from the previous day [2]. - The price in Shandong was 14,565 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [2]. - The price in Hebei was 14,450 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [2]. - The 3128B index was 14,561 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day [2]. - The international cotton index M (CNCottonM) was 75.23 cents/pound, an increase of 0.21% from the previous day [2]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [2]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 21,723 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.00% from the previous day [2]. Spreads - The CF9 - 1 spread increased by 70 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. Group 4: Macro and Industry News - Domestic cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, with partial good transactions. Traders were the main buyers, and the mainstream sales basis changed little. The sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly at CF09 + 1350 - 1450, and there were a small number of low - price offers at 1250 - 1350 for inland self - pick - up. The freight of cotton out of Xinjiang by truck was still weak [3]. - The pure - cotton yarn market entered the traditional off - season, with fewer orders and slower sales for spinning mills. The cotton yarn price showed a downward trend. The all - cotton grey fabric market was dull, with few transactions reported by manufacturers, mainly due to the lack of orders from downstream customers or their wait - and - see attitude. Weaving mills had weak confidence in the future market [3]. - Last Friday, ICE cotton rose slightly, following the overall commodity market trend. The market continued to focus on the US cotton sowing progress and awaited the crop growth report after the Monday session [3]. Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that cotton has insufficient upward momentum. The domestic cotton spot market has average trading, and the cotton - textile market has entered a slack season with weakening trading and mostly falling prices. The ICE cotton rebounded due to factors such as the dollar's decline, crude oil's rise, and concerns about the slow sowing progress [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,275 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% daily decline, and its trading volume was 203,391 lots, a decrease of 60,819 lots from the previous day. CY2507 closed at 19,525 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% daily decline, and its trading volume was 6,105 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day. ICE cotton 07 closed at 66.18 cents/pound with a 1.67% increase [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,102, a decrease of 55 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 374, a decrease of 6 from the previous day. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,407 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,193 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,569 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from the previous day, a - 0.06% decline [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was average, and the spot basis was temporarily stable. The lower sales basis of 2024/25 South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with less than 3.5 impurities was around CF09 + 850, and most quotes of the same quality were above CF09 + 900, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market weakened and entered the slack season. Tightly spun/Compact - spun 21 - 26 count cotton yarns and high - grade 40 count cotton yarns had relatively good sales, while other varieties were sluggish. Prices mostly declined, and spinning mills had difficulty in making high - price transactions and mainly negotiated for sales [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton rebounded, closing with a 1.67% increase. It was affected by the dollar's decline, crude oil's rise, and concerns about the slow sowing progress. As of the week of June 1st, the US cotton sowing progress was 66%, compared with 68% in the same period last year and a 5 - year average of 69% [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].