Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector, particularly focusing on the livestock industry and its cyclical recovery [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock industry is experiencing a reversal of internal competition, which is expected to support long-term pig prices. As of November 21, the price of live pigs was 11.67 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [1]. - The beef market is entering a new price increase phase, with the average price of beef at 66.38 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the livestock sector, suggesting that their cash flow will improve due to official capacity control measures [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product data, highlighting trends in livestock prices and supply dynamics [12]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The swine industry is seeing orderly progress in reversing internal competition, which is expected to stabilize profitability [13]. 2.2 White Chicken - A slight increase in supply is noted, with attention on seasonal consumption recovery [13]. 2.3 Yellow Chicken - Supply remains at a low level, with potential benefits from improved domestic demand [13]. 2.4 Eggs - The egg market faces significant mid-term supply pressure, with wholesale prices at 3.63 CNY/jin, down 28% year-on-year [13]. 2.5 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is anticipated, with a focus on the upward trend in the beef cycle for 2025 [13]. 2.6 Raw Milk - The report suggests that the de-stocking of dairy cows may accelerate in Q4, potentially leading to a price turning point for raw milk [13]. 2.7 Soybean Meal - Short-term supply is expected to be ample, while medium-term demand and supply dynamics are projected to strengthen [13]. 2.8 Corn - Domestic supply and demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [13]. 2.9 Sugar - Short-term increases in imports are noted, with attention on the rhythm of arrivals and fluctuations in crude oil prices [13]. 2.10 Rubber - Prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a positive outlook for the medium term [13]. 2.11 Palm Oil - Short-term performance is weak, with medium-term policy support being a focus [13]. 2.12 Cotton - Inventory pressure is neutral, with demand still needing recovery [13]. 2.13 Red Dates - Limited demand recovery is noted, with attention on weather conditions in new production areas [13]. 3. Market Trends - The report discusses market trends and price movements across various agricultural products, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand factors [12].

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创农业 10 月白羽肉禽月报 毛鸡价格稳后上扬，鸡苗价格高位偏强 ❑ 毛鸡&鸡苗：毛鸡价格稳后上扬，鸡苗价格高位偏强。 父母代产能方面，2025 年 10 月协会样本点在产父母代存栏 2307 万套，同比 +2.5%，环比+0.7%；后备父母代种鸡平均存栏量 1532 万套，同比-6.8%，环比 -2.2%。10 月父母代鸡苗价格为 47.79 元/套，最新报价 25 年第 44 周数据为 45.97 元/套。 综合来看，鸡苗端环比上涨，毛鸡养殖端环比下降。10 月毛鸡养殖亏损 1.78 元/羽，环比盈利大幅下降；孵化场盈利 0.65 元/羽，环比盈利大幅扩张。 行业研究 农林牧渔 2025 年 11 月 23 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张皓月 邮箱：zhanghaoyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070009 证券分析师：陈鹏 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) ...

Summary of the Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Agricultural Sector**, specifically the **Pig Farming** and **Poultry Farming** industries, along with **Feed and Animal Health** sub-sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Pig Farming Sector - In Q3 2025, the profitability of the pig farming sector declined significantly, with a **71% year-on-year** and **38% quarter-on-quarter** drop in profits, totaling **CNY 5.54 billion** for 18 listed pig farming companies [2][3][9]. - The average price of live pigs was **CNY 13.8/kg**, while the average cost for most listed companies was between **CNY 13-14/kg**, indicating a challenging margin environment [9][12]. - Major players like **Muyuan** and **Wens** reported combined profits of approximately **CNY 6 billion**, while the remaining 16 companies were in a loss position [9]. - The industry is expected to accelerate the reduction of sow capacity, which may elevate the price center for pigs in 2026 [2][12][13]. - The cash flow situation remains positive, with **CNY 18.1 billion** in operating cash flow for Q3, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of net inflow [10]. Poultry Farming Sector - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a tightening supply of parent stock, particularly for **white feathered chickens**, which is expected to support price increases in 2026 [5][14]. - The **yellow feathered chicken** sector is facing historical lows in parent stock, compounded by ongoing industry losses, setting the stage for potential price increases [5][14]. - The overall revenue for the poultry sector increased by **11% year-on-year**, but net profit fell by **45%** due to low chicken prices [14]. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Sectors - The feed and animal health sectors are showing signs of recovery, with demand improving as livestock numbers stabilize [6][7][17]. - Leading feed companies are expanding overseas, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [6][18]. - The animal health sector reported a **19% year-on-year** revenue increase, with profits rising **76%** due to a low base from the previous year [19]. Additional Important Insights - The average cost of pig farming is projected to be between **CNY 13-14/kg** for 2025, with expectations for 2026 to rise to **CNY 14-16/kg** [12][13]. - The **Haida Group** plans to IPO its overseas assets, which may dilute short-term earnings but is expected to enhance long-term growth potential [18]. - Investment recommendations focus on low-cost leading companies in pig farming like **Muyuan** and **Wens**, as well as smaller quality firms such as **Shennong** and **Dekang** [8][20]. Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on companies with strong cost control and cash flow improvement in the pig farming sector [8][20]. - In the poultry sector, recommendations include **Shennong** for white feathered chickens and **Lihua** for yellow feathered chickens [8][20]. - For feed and animal health, focus on leading companies like **Haida Group** and **Kefei**, as well as those with product advantages in the animal health sector [8][20].

Group 1: Livestock Industry Outlook - The livestock industry is expected to experience a significant reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rebound, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production capacity and a historical high in the meat-to-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [1][15][45] - Domestic beef prices have been on a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of nearly 20% since June 2023, reaching a low of 23.77 CNY/kg by February 2025, while the market price for beef has dropped to 51.38 CNY/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year [15][21] - The supply of beef is expected to tighten as the number of cull cows decreases, leading to a potential price increase for beef starting in 2025, with prices anticipated to rise until 2027 [21][45] Group 2: Swine and Poultry Farming - The investment focus is shifting from cyclical trends to company management and cash flow generation, with leading companies in the swine and poultry sectors expected to benefit from improved cash flow and profitability amid industry-wide capacity reductions [2][9] - In the swine sector, the official capacity control is expected to enhance the cash flow of leading enterprises, positioning them as attractive investment opportunities [2][9] - The poultry sector is anticipated to see limited supply fluctuations, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns as demand recovers [2][9] Group 3: Feed Industry Dynamics - The deepening industrialization of livestock farming and clear division of labor in the feed industry are expected to allow leading feed companies to further enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [2][9][12] Group 4: Pet Industry Growth - The pet industry is viewed as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from demographic trends, with domestic brands rapidly emerging. The performance of leading pet food companies is expected to show strong growth through 2026 [2][9][12] - Recommendations include leading domestic brands such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co., which are positioned to capitalize on the growing market [2][9][12] Group 5: Bulk Agricultural Products Overview - The agricultural products market is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of upward movement in the medium to long term. Key products include corn, soybeans, and oilseeds, which are projected to see stable supply and price support [3][9] - The domestic corn market is expected to maintain strong bottom support, while soybean imports are anticipated to rise, influencing domestic prices positively [3][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for meat chickens is entering a peak season, providing price support, while egg prices are declining, leading to accelerated culling of laying hens [8] - The report highlights the performance of various poultry segments, including white feathered chickens, yellow feathered chickens, and laying hens, with specific price trends and inventory changes [13][23][31] Summary by Sections 1. White Feathered Chickens - The average sales price for white feathered meat chickens in October 2025 was 6.93 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg month-on-month. The breeding loss was 1.78 yuan per bird, continuing a trend of losses [13] - The price of white feathered chicken seedlings rose to 3.39 yuan each, an increase of 0.58 yuan month-on-month, indicating positive stocking activity ahead of the peak demand season [14] - The total inventory of white feathered grandparent stock was 2.0209 million sets, down 1.30% month-on-month, with a decrease in both breeding and backup stock [14] 2. Yellow Feathered Chickens - The average sales price for medium-speed yellow feathered chickens in October was 12.86 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.03% month-on-month. The demand is supporting price stability [23] - The sales volume of parent yellow feathered chicken seedlings increased by 8.87% month-on-month, while the total inventory of yellow feathered grandparent stock decreased by 2.65% [23] 3. Laying Hens - The average price of laying hen seedlings was 2.80 yuan each, up 7.69% month-on-month, while the wholesale price of eggs dropped to 5.72 yuan/kg, down 20.11% month-on-month [31] - The profit from laying hen farming was -24.44 yuan per bird, a decrease of 26.56 yuan month-on-month, indicating pressure on profitability due to high inventory levels and low egg prices [31] 4. Sales and Revenue Trends - In October, the sales volume of chicken products showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing declines in sales volume but increases in revenue due to higher average prices [43][49] - For example, Xiantan Co. reported a chicken sales volume of 52,900 tons, down 1.37% month-on-month, but an increase in sales revenue to 456 million yuan, up 4.05% month-on-month [43]

Summary of Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural sector is currently undervalued, with a PB percentile ranking low among the 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan index, indicating potential investment opportunities due to low valuations in various sub-sectors [1][3][6] Key Insights and Arguments - **Animal Health Sector**: This sub-sector has seen the highest growth, driven by specific events rather than a broad sector effect, with a 73% increase since September 2024 [4][5] - **Swine Farming**: Expected government interventions to address falling pig prices and production capacity reduction, with a focus on increasing imports of U.S. agricultural products like soybeans and wheat, which could lower feed costs and improve market expectations for swine farming [1][6][8] - **Seed Industry**: Potential investment opportunities driven by policy changes and a rebound in grain prices, particularly during the year-end policy announcement period [1][10] - **Pet Food Industry**: Facing intensified domestic competition and impacts from the U.S.-China tariff war, but leading companies like Guai Bao and Zhong Chong are expected to emerge stronger [1][13] - **Poultry Farming**: The high incidence of avian influenza during the peak season (October to February) may create investment opportunities, particularly in regions like France and the U.S. [2][14] Market Performance - The agricultural sector's performance has been relatively weak, ranking 22nd in terms of price changes since September 2024, but improved to 17th since April 2025 [3] - Specific stocks have shown significant gains, often driven by unique events rather than core business logic, indicating a lack of consistent performance across the sector [5] Future Investment Opportunities - The agricultural sector may benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies and low valuations across sub-sectors, particularly in swine farming, where supply increases, cost reductions, and consumption recovery are anticipated [6][9] - Recommended stocks include leading companies in swine farming like Muyuan and Wens, as well as low-cost or growth-oriented firms [9] Additional Insights - The seed industry may see price recovery due to recent declines in corn prices, which were driven by weather-related issues rather than supply increases [10][11] - The rubber industry is currently stable but faces short-term challenges; however, long-term prospects remain positive [12]

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the livestock sector, particularly in beef and dairy farming, predicting a turning point in the domestic beef cycle by 2025, with prices expected to rise significantly [1][14] - The report recommends a selection of stocks in the livestock and feed sectors, highlighting companies like Yuran Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group as key investment opportunities [1][3] Livestock Sector - The report anticipates a reversal in the beef cycle, with domestic beef prices expected to rise due to a combination of domestic supply adjustments and international price increases [14] - The dairy market is projected to improve, driven by a rising meat-to-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows and enhance profitability for dairy farming companies [14] - Key recommended stocks in the livestock sector include Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu [14][18] Swine Sector - The report highlights a recovery in the swine sector, with a focus on leading companies like DeKang Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery as the market stabilizes [15][19] - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.49 CNY/kg, reflecting a 6% month-on-month increase, while the price of piglets decreased by 9.18% [2][21] - The report notes that the industry is experiencing a rational approach to breeding, with a stable number of breeding sows maintained [21][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is expected to see increased demand, with prices for broiler chickens and chicks rising, indicating a recovery in consumption as the market enters a peak season [34][37] - The report mentions that the supply of yellow-feathered chickens remains low, which may benefit leading producers as domestic demand improves [40][41] - Recommended stocks in the poultry sector include Lihua Stock and Shengnong Development [19] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a growth area, with domestic consumption expected to continue rising, particularly in pet food and healthcare [16] - Key recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet and Reap Bio [16][19] Feed Sector - The feed sector is projected to benefit from a recovery in aquaculture and livestock production, with Haida Group highlighted as a leading player in the feed market [1][19] - The report indicates that the price of corn, a key feed ingredient, is currently at a historical low, providing a strong cost support for feed production [21][22] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have decreased by 5.37% month-on-month [2][21] - The overall agricultural sector is expected to experience a gradual recovery, with specific attention to the dynamics of supply and demand for key commodities [19][22]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, despite ongoing losses in the industry [1][3] - The report highlights a potential acceleration in capacity reduction due to supply pressures and policy guidance [6][19] Group 1: Pig Farming - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.20% month-on-month in September, with a total of 40.35 million sows reported [20][21] - Pig prices have been on the rise, with the average price for market pigs reaching 12.22 CNY/kg on October 30, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.10% [29][30] - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 89.33 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 179.72 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of October 31 [35][37] Group 2: Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather broilers increased to 7.09 CNY/kg on October 31, marking a week-on-week rise of 3.05% [39][42] - The report notes a significant increase in the number of breeding stock, with a 143.18% month-on-month rise in the number of grandparent stock updated in October [39][40] Group 3: Animal Health - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by a recovery in breeding cycles and an increase in livestock numbers [48] - The report mentions that several companies are actively developing new products, which may enhance growth prospects for the sector [48] Group 4: Seed Industry - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have increased, with wheat and soybean meal rising by 0.9% and 1.3% respectively as of October 31 [52][53] - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the promotion of biotechnology in the seed industry [52][56] Group 5: Pet Industry - Pet food exports amounted to 823 million CNY in September, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.8% [57][60] - Domestic sales of pet food have continued to grow, with a combined growth rate of 3% across major e-commerce platforms in September [60]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with an expectation that the industry index will exceed the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][51]. Core Insights - The report indicates that after a decline, the price of broilers has stabilized while the price of chicks remains high and fluctuating. In September, the average price of broilers was 6.99 yuan/kg, down 3.22% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month [9][8]. - The report highlights a significant loss in broiler farming, with losses of 1 yuan per bird in September, and a loss of 0.41 yuan per chick in hatcheries, indicating a substantial decline in profitability [41][41]. - The demand for poultry meat is expected to improve in 2025 due to a recovery in consumption, despite current pressures on prices and demand [44]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In September, the price of broilers experienced a decline followed by stabilization, with a fixed transaction period lasting over 20 days. The average price of chicks fluctuated between 3.03 and 3.31 yuan per chick during the month [8][8]. - The average price of chicken products was 8712.92 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.77% [9]. Production Capacity - As of September 2025, the average stock of parent stock was 22.92 million sets, up 2.0% year-on-year, while the average stock of backup parent stock decreased by 1.7% [34][34]. - The average stock of grandparent stock was 1.36 million sets, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [27][30]. Sales Performance - In September, the sales volume of chicken meat from major companies showed positive growth, with Shengnong's chicken sales increasing by 10.57% year-on-year and Xiantan's chicken sales rising by 23.64% [16][24]. - The sales revenue for the chicken segment in September was reported at 13 billion yuan for Shengnong, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.52% [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Hefeng Shares, anticipating improvements in profitability and valuation recovery in the poultry sector [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to improve [4] - The pig industry is supported by a trend of "anti-involution," which is likely to stabilize long-term prices [4] - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry benefiting from demographic changes [4] - The feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is expected to achieve excess returns due to the recovery in aquaculture [4] - The poultry sector is anticipated to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [4] Summary by Sections Swine - As of October 24, the price of live pigs is 11.82 CNY/kg, up 6.01% week-on-week [2] - The price of 15kg piglets is approximately 17.66 CNY/kg, down 1.83% week-on-week [2] - The industry is experiencing orderly progress in "anti-involution," which is expected to support profitability [14] Poultry - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [2] - As of October 24, the price of chicken seedlings is 3.36 CNY/piece, up 2.13% week-on-week [15] - The price of eggs in major production areas is 3.69 CNY/jin, down 1.99% week-on-week and down 30.34% year-on-year [2][15] Beef - A new round of beef price increases has begun, with a positive outlook for the beef cycle reversal in 2025 [2] - As of October 24, the average price of beef is 66.61 CNY/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week [16] Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk in major domestic production areas is 3.04 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 2.88% year-on-year [3] Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean spot price is 3997 CNY/ton, up 0.09% week-on-week, while soybean meal is priced at 2984 CNY/ton, down 0.86% week-on-week [3] Corn - The domestic corn spot price is 2249 CNY/ton, down 0.64% week-on-week but up 0.10% year-on-year [3] Sugar - The price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, is 5750 CNY/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week [3] Rubber - The price of Thai rubber is 1860 USD/ton, up 0.54% week-on-week, while full latex in Shandong is priced at 14700 CNY/ton, up 5.00% week-on-week [3]