1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, after the U.S. government ended its shutdown, market sentiment varied, and asset trends diverged. The controversy over AI bubble resurfaced, and the high - level decline of safe - haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin raised market concerns, resulting in a decline in investors' risk appetite and a slight increase in the VIX volatility index. Global major stock markets showed mixed performance, with A - shares leading the decline after reaching a high, while the Hang Seng Index had a relatively large increase. The BDI index rose, U.S. bond yields increased, the U.S. dollar index slightly declined, and most non - U.S. currencies strengthened. Most commodities rose [4][8]. - In the domestic market, the bond market mostly closed down with short - term weakness and long - term strength, and most stock indices declined. The commodity sectors showed mixed performance but generally closed up, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of 3.92%. Among the 10 commodity sub - sector indices, 6 closed up and 4 closed down. Commodity futures generally maintained the pattern of strong agricultural products and weak industrial products [4][13]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 - 3.75% in December decreased to 39.8%, significantly lower than last week's 61.9%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increased significantly [5][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Global asset trends: Global major stock markets showed mixed performance, A - shares led the decline after reaching a high, the Hang Seng Index rose, the BDI index increased, U.S. bond yields went up, the U.S. dollar index slightly declined, and most non - U.S. currencies strengthened. Most commodities rose, with precious metals stabilizing, rebounding, and then fluctuating at a high level, and copper and oil prices slightly rebounding [4][8]. - Domestic market performance: The domestic bond market mostly closed down with short - term weakness and long - term strength, and most stock indices declined. The commodity sectors showed mixed performance but generally closed up. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 3.92%. Commodity futures maintained the pattern of strong agricultural products and weak industrial products, with precious metals leading the rise, followed by significant increases in the agricultural products, grains, and oilseeds sectors. The non - ferrous and chemical sectors slightly closed up, while other sectors all closed down, with the coal, coking, steel, and mining and energy sectors having the largest declines [4][13]. - Futures market capital flow: The overall capital in the commodity futures market slightly flowed in. The precious metals, non - metallic building materials, oilseeds, and non - ferrous sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the soft commodities, coal, coking, steel, and mining, and chemical sectors had obvious capital outflows [4][15]. - Commodity volatility: The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index significantly increased, while the volatility of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index showed a divergent performance of one rising and one falling. Most of the commodity futures sub - sector volatilities declined, with the oilseeds, non - ferrous, soft commodities, and coal, coking, steel, and mining sectors having the largest decline in volatility, and the energy sector having the most obvious increase in volatility [5][22]. Variety Performance - The domestic major commodity futures showed mixed performance in the recent week. The top - rising commodity futures varieties were Shanghai silver, lithium carbonate, and apples, while the top - falling varieties were glass, coke, and red dates [18][21]. Data Tracking - International commodities: International major commodities generally closed up, the BDI slightly increased, the CRB was flat, soybeans and corn rose, and copper, oil, gold, and silver all closed up, with the silver price rising more and the gold - silver ratio significantly declining [26]. - Domestic data: Asphalt production rate continued to decline, real - estate sales were weakly bottom - seeking, freight rates rebounded with differentiation, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated downward [41]. Macro Logic - Stock market: The domestic four major stock indices fluctuated and declined last week. In terms of style, value stocks were obviously more resistant to decline, while growth - style stock indices were relatively weaker. The valuation of stock indices declined, and the equity risk premium (ERP) changed little [30][31]. - Commodities: The commodity price index fluctuated and rebounded, and the inflation expectation was under downward pressure [34]. - U.S. bonds: U.S. bond yields rebounded, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread changed little, the real interest rate rebounded, and the gold price rebounded and then declined [49]. - U.S. economic indicators: The U.S. high - frequency "recession indicator" weakened, the Citi Economic Surprise Index showed differentiation, and the 10Y - 3M U.S. bond spread fluctuated in positive territory [60]. Fed Interest Rate Expectation The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 - 3.75% in December decreased to 39.8%, significantly lower than last week's 61.9%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increased significantly [5][68]. This Week's Focus - Monday (November 17): Canada's October CPI monthly rate, U.S. November New York Fed Manufacturing Index [73]. - Tuesday (November 18): U.S. October Import Price Index monthly rate, U.S. October Industrial Production monthly rate, U.S. November NAHB Housing Market Index, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari hosts a fireside chat, Reserve Bank of Australia releases November Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed visits the White House and meets with U.S. President Trump [73]. - Wednesday (November 19): U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 14, UK October CPI monthly rate, Eurozone October CPI annual rate final value, U.S. October New Housing Starts annualized, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 14, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending November 14 [73]. - Thursday (November 20): China's October Swift RMB share in global payments, China's one - year loan prime rate as of November 20, Germany's October PPI monthly rate, Switzerland's October trade balance, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15, U.S. November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Eurozone November Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value, U.S. October Existing Home Sales annualized, U.S. October Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate, U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending November 14, Fed releases Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech, September non - farm payroll data [73]. - Friday (November 21): Japan's October core CPI annual rate, UK November Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, UK November Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Canada's September retail sales monthly rate, U.S. November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, U.S. November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value, U.S. November one - year inflation rate expectation final value, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee gives a speech, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker gives a speech on the economic outlook, European Central Bank President Lagarde gives a speech, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech [73].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market is likely not over, as its price increase and duration are still below historical comparisons from the 1970s and 2000s [1] Gold Market Insights - The continuation of the gold bull market is contingent on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U.S. economy not entering a strong recovery phase characterized by "declining inflation and rising growth" [1] - There is a possibility that gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce next year if current trends persist [1] - Despite a clear bull market logic, gold is currently considered overvalued, suggesting a strategy of increasing allocation during dips rather than chasing prices [1] Stock Market Insights - Chinese stocks are expected to benefit from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, with reasonable valuations [1] - Although year-end volatility may increase, there are no signals indicating a market top, thus maintaining an overweight position is recommended [1] - The U.S. stock market also has a bullish outlook, but concerns about high valuations and low elasticity during the dollar depreciation cycle suggest a neutral allocation [2] Fixed Income Insights - Chinese interest rates have room to decline, but the current valuation of Chinese bonds is high, limiting upside potential, leading to a recommendation for underweighting [2] - U.S. Treasuries benefit from the Fed's easing cycle but face mid-term inflation and debt risks, resulting in a neutral allocation recommendation [2] Market Top Indicators - The analysis of market tops for Chinese stocks and gold highlights the importance of economic and policy signals, with economic slowdowns or tightening policies often indicating market tops [4][5] - The difficulty in accurately timing market tops is noted, particularly due to the close timing of economic and market turning points [4] 2026 Market Outlook Factors - Four key factors that could alter the bullish trends for stocks and gold in 2026 include unexpected growth shifts, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [6][7][8] - Current data does not support a significant improvement in economic growth for China and the U.S., suggesting that the bullish trends for stocks and gold are likely to continue [8] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation is to overweight Chinese stocks and gold, maintain a neutral position in U.S. stocks and bonds, and adjust commodity allocations to neutral [9] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of being prepared for potential market trend changes by increasing commodity allocations [9]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 39 points, nearly 1% [1] - The decline was primarily influenced by the drop in large-cap tech stocks in the US, which negatively impacted A-share tech stocks that were already weak [1] - The market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have diminished, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 70% to 50%, affecting investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - The negative impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations is likely to continue in the short term, leading to a challenging environment for non-USD economies to achieve significant upward movement [2] - The market is expected to exhibit a volatile trend rather than a clear upward breakout before the end of the year [2] - Investors are advised to either refrain from trading if they do not understand the market or cautiously increase positions if they are confident in their profitability [2] Group 3 - International gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with a maximum intraday drop of 3.8% and a closing drop of 2%, indicating a significant reversal of the previous three days' gains [4] - The decrease in gold prices is attributed to the reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which negatively impacts gold as a hedge against inflation [4] - The speculative nature of the recent rise in gold prices, driven by expectations of rate cuts, has weakened, suggesting further downward potential for gold prices [5]

寻找中国股票与黄金牛市的顶部规律 正文 2025年全球市场大开大阖，股票与黄金领涨，非美资产整体跑赢美元资产，科技成长显著强于周期与价值，商品与债券表现偏弱，美元进入贬值通道。我 们认为，这一轮资产价格的演绎反映了两大长期趋势的共振：宏观层面，货币秩序正在重构，美元进入贬值周期，推高黄金与非美资产估值;产业层面， AI科技革命持续深化，驱动股票强势上涨，成长风格占优。 我们建议顺势而为，维持超配黄金、增配中国科技股票，美元资产与商品排序靠后。回顾2025年至今的市场表现，全球主要资产走势基本印证了我们的判 断。进入2026年，资产配置的核心问题是全球股票与黄金经历了持续的大幅上涨之后，牛市趋势未来还能否持续?哪些因素可能打断这一趋势?如果市场趋 势出现变化，资产配置又该如何应对?回答这些问题，我们首先回溯历史，系统梳理各类资产在过去数十年中的牛熊切换规律，寻找影响市场趋势转折的 共性因素，为判断未来市场拐点提供经验参照。 (一)全球大类资产的牛熊规律 我们首先总结国内外股票、债券、商品共九种大类资产的牛熊切换规律。我们观察到： 我们总结全球大类资产的牛熊切换规律，发现美股牛长熊短，牛市总时长占比超过80%，判 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月14日全球股市和贵金属市场受挫】11月14日，美联储官员鹰派信号浇灭市场对美国12月降息希 望，混乱数据日历和人工智能泡沫担忧，令全球股市和贵金属市场周五重创。从东京到巴黎、伦敦的蓝 筹股市场大幅下跌，英国市场因对预算案新担忧加剧痛苦。美国股指期货预示华尔街股市开盘黯淡，周 四已大幅下挫。 CIBC Markets外汇策略主管称，12月降息预期回到五五开，加上人工智能泡沫担忧， 破坏市场情绪稳定，本月市场情绪反复无常。白宫粉碎市场对美国状况很快清晰的希望，称10月美国失 业数据可能无法获得，加剧美联储暂停行动的看法。 ...

- The report tracks various market factors, including stock market, commodity market, options market, and convertible bond market, focusing on their weekly performance and trends[1][3][12] - **Stock Market Factors**: The report highlights the following: - **Market Style**: Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, and value stocks outperformed growth stocks. Both small-cap and value-growth style volatilities decreased[12][14] - **Market Structure**: Industry excess return dispersion and industry rotation speed increased. The proportion of rising constituent stocks also increased, while the concentration of trading in the top 100 stocks and top 5 industries decreased[12][14] - **Market Activity**: Both market volatility and turnover rate declined[13][14] - **Commodity Market Factors**: Key observations include: - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of agricultural products decreased, while other sectors showed minimal changes[24][31] - **Basis Momentum**: Basis momentum increased across all sectors[24][31] - **Volatility**: Volatility decreased across all sectors except agricultural products[24][31] - **Liquidity**: Liquidity declined across all sectors[24][31] - **Options Market Factors**: The implied volatility levels of SSE 50 and CSI 1000 options decreased. However, the put-call open interest ratio increased. Additionally, the skewness of both put and call options for SSE 50 rose significantly[35] - **Convertible Bond Market Factors**: The convertible bond market performed well, with the following trends: - The premium rate of bonds priced around 100 yuan increased significantly, nearing the 90th percentile of the past year[37] - The premium rate of pure debt bonds also slightly increased, while the proportion of low premium rate bonds remained stable[37] - Weekly trading volume continued to recover[37]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has diminished, leading to pressure on global risk assets through two main channels [1] Group 1: Impact on Currency and Commodities - A decline in interest rate cut expectations supports the US dollar index in the short term, which, as a core global pricing currency, makes dollar-denominated commodities and emerging market assets less attractive, potentially causing capital to flow back to dollar assets [1] - The continued restrictive monetary policy will elevate real interest rates, negatively impacting the valuation logic of risk assets, particularly high-valuation growth assets, as rising discount rates compress their valuation space [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Recent market performance indicates a pullback in the US Nasdaq index, emerging market equities, and cyclical commodities like oil, reflecting the pressure on risk assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation and long-term investment strategies for achieving financial freedom, suggesting that individuals should invest a significant portion of their income in the stock market over time to build wealth. Group 1: Market Trends - Asian stock markets are experiencing fluctuations, with Hong Kong showing upward movement despite other markets being volatile [1] - The Hang Seng Index has recently rebounded after a period of underperformance, indicating a search for undervalued assets by investors [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - A hypothetical scenario illustrates that starting to invest 20% of an annual salary of 200,000 with a 2% annual salary increase and an 8% annual return can lead to significant wealth accumulation by age 50 [4][5] - By age 50, the stock asset returns can surpass annual income, providing a sense of financial freedom and the possibility of early retirement [7] - Increasing the investment portion to 60% of the salary can lead to even greater returns, with stock assets potentially reaching 35 million by retirement age [12] Group 3: Historical Returns - Historical data suggests that global stock markets have provided an average annual return of around 8% over the past 200 years, with some periods showing even higher returns [13] - Specific data from 2015 indicates that funds established at market highs have still yielded reasonable returns over a decade, reinforcing the idea that long-term investment can mitigate the effects of market timing [14][16] Group 4: Investment Guidelines - The article concludes that to achieve relative financial freedom, individuals should consistently invest 20% to 60% of their income and maintain a long-term holding strategy, avoiding high market entry points [13][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data of stock index futures and treasury bond futures. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields vary across different economies. For example, on 2025/11/10, the US 10 - year treasury bond yield was 4.117, with a latest change of 0.019, a one - week change of 0.006, a one - month change of 0.083, and a one - year change of - 0.168 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Different economies also show different trends. The US 2 - year treasury bond yield on 2025/11/10 was 3.570, with a latest change of - 0.060, a one - week change of - 0.040, a one - month change of 0.090, and a one - year change of - 0.540 [3]. - **Dollar to Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates have different changes. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate on 2025/11/10 was 5.301, with a latest change of - 0.62%, a one - week change of - 1.07%, a one - month change of - 3.02%, and a one - year change of - 8.41% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: Stock indices of various economies have different performances. For instance, the S&P 500 index value on 2025/11/10 was 6832.430, with a latest change of 0.51%, a one - week change of 0.31%, a one - month change of - (not provided), and a one - year change of - (not provided) [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices have different changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a one - month change of - 0.17% and a one - year change of 0.01% [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing price of A - shares was 4018.60, with a change of 0.53%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4695.05, with a change of 0.35% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE(TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.36, with a环比 change of 0.08. The PE(TTM) of the S&P 500 was 28.41, with a环比 change of 0.44 [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was - 0.60, with a环比 change of - 0.08. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.38, with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 456.59, and the 5 - day average was - 482.23 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21744.54, with a环比 change of 1754.01 [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis of IF was - 23.05, with a magnitude of - 0.49%. The basis of IH was 0.14, with a magnitude of 0.00% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Price and Change**: The closing price of T00 was 108.485, with a change of 0.00%. The closing price of TF00 was 105.940, with a change of 0.00% [6]. - **Funding Rate**: The R001 was 1.5226%, with a daily change of 5.00 BP. The R007 was 1.5039%, with a daily change of 3.00 BP [6].

Hot News - In October, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% and a month-on-month increase of 8.5%. From January to October, the cumulative wholesale was 12.058 million, a growth of 29.9% [4]. - Since 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China has suspended the implementation of countermeasures against the US Section 301 investigation on the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [4]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2,464,452 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.44%, and the palm oil production was 2,043,886 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.02% [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net inflow of domestic gold ETFs was 79.015 tons, a year-on-year increase of 164.03%. The gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.72% [4]. - As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 0.008 million tons from last Thursday, a decline of 0.47%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 0.7977 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.0169 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 0.9085 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0089 million tons [4]. Plate Performance - Key focus: Soda ash, glass, coking coal, SHFE copper, SHFE gold [5]. - Night session performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 3.25%, precious metals rose 29.09%, oilseeds rose 9.52%, non-ferrous metals rose 23.21%, soft commodities rose 2.72%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 13.02%, energy rose 2.90%, chemicals rose 11.18%, grains rose 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 3.90% [5]. Large - Class Asset Performance | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.53 | Fetching... | 19.90 | | | SSE 50 | 0.51 | -0.12 | 13.75 | | | CSI 300 | 0.35 | -0.29 | 19.32 | | | CSI 500 | 0.22 | -1.39 | 28.26 | | | S&P 500 | 1.54 | -0.64 | 16.17 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.55 | 0.11 | 32.85 | | | German DAX | 1.65 | 0.38 | 20.35 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.26 | -4.20 | 27.62 | | | FTSE 100 | 1.08 | 0.62 | 19.75 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.01 | -0.18 | -0.40 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | -0.12 | -0.56 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.00 | -0.07 | -0.49 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 1.38 | -0.09 | 2.81 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.47 | -2.09 | -16.53 | | | London Spot Gold | 2.88 | -0.57 | 56.84 | | | LME Copper | 1.47 | -1.46 | 23.83 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.61 | -2.67 | 30.21 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.07 | 0.43 | -8.17 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 3.27 | 9.97 | [7]