卡普顿：现在还处在年初阶段，我们的预测通常还会经历多次调整。 2026年伊始，全球经济正回归长期潜在增长轨道，信贷逐步修复，市场信心边际回升。瑞银全球经济和 策略研究主管卡普顿（Arend Kapteyn）在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，在利差收窄、汇率波动有限 且市场流动性充足的背景下，股票仍是最具优势的资产类别，美股今年预计可涨约10%，欧洲与日本市 场也有望录得约8%的涨幅。 他对中国经济保持乐观：新兴经济部门已贡献约四分之一的增长，是推动整体经济的重要动力。他建议 投资者在新兴市场中重点关注中国与巴西，这不仅可获取AI相关敞口，也兼顾估值与盈利增长优势。 同时，他提醒，投资者仍需关注美国潜在的财政刺激、劳动力市场结构性风险以及整体不确定性，这些 因素可能成为全球市场的主要风险；相比之下，地缘政治因素虽然难以预测，但对金融市场的直接冲击 或相对有限。 中国在全球新经济领域领先 南方财经：我们把目光转向中国。怎么看中国经济前景？未来推动经济增长的主要动力会来自哪些方 面？ 我们认为，新兴经济部门对整体经济增长的贡献，已经接近四分之一。从重要性来看，这些新经济领域 的影响已超过房地产行业。然而，这些变化并未充 ...

黄金方面： 亚盘以黄金为代表的贵金属出现快速下跌，黄金短线跌幅超过4%，白银最大跌幅超过15%，现货黄金的市值在此时段蒸发1.4万 亿美元，现货白银的市值在此时段蒸发8889亿美元。 引爆市场的直接原因就是地缘风险缓和，由于美国和伊朗已达成协议，美伊核谈判峰回路转，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在社交媒体上 发文称，与美国的核问题会谈计划于周五上午10点左右在马斯喀特举行，鉴于伊朗在核问题上的让步和美国对卷入战争的谨慎 态度，双方谈判取得进展的概率很大。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，前期贵金属价格的下跌挫伤了多头的信心，地缘风险的缓和可能让多头雪上加霜， 市场需要时间来重塑信心，短期可能继续下行。 技术面：黄金日线收高位流星线，且跌破短期均线支撑。1小时周期高点下移，形成大C浪的概率很大，日内可关注上方4925美 元一线的压力。 原油方面： 受地缘风险缓和的影响，国际油价在亚盘小幅下行，小周期形态上有变坏的迹象，若美伊谈判取得进展，油价有大跌的可能。 截至1月30日当周，美国原油库存和馏分油库存下降，而汽油库存上升，原油库存减少350万桶，至4.203亿桶，因原油产量下滑 至2024年11月以来最低水平。原油产量 ...

2026年，日本央行重启加息，是否会给全球宽松环境带来变数？科技主题是否依然能引领市场？在复杂 多变的环境下，如何进行多元资产配置，才能应对全球不确定性带来的挑战？近期，汇丰晋信基金与汇 丰投资管理携手举办了2026年全球投资展望分享会，邀请投资专家拨开市场迷雾，前瞻2026年环球市场 表现，捕捉多元资产配置机遇。 全球宏观：正处于人工智能超级周期的开端 在汇丰投资管理固定收益环球首席投资官、亚洲区首席投资官Michael Cross看来，市场正处于人工智能 超级周期的开端，也处于大宗商品超级周期的早期阶段。谈及美国市场，他表示："我们预计美元不会 出现大幅贬值。美国正经历一场巨大的投资热潮，流入美国的资金仍然有望保持强劲。" Michael Cross表示："关于人工智能，目前存在着广泛的观点，美国的劳动生产率目前为2%。一些学术 估算认为人工智能可以使生产率增长0.2%。还有一些估算认为，人工智能可以将生产率提高4.5%，这 是前所未有的。虽然我们毫不怀疑人工智能将会带来益处，但无法准确衡量其益处究竟有多大。这意味 着股票价格将会出现上涨趋势，但随着人们对人工智能益处的看法逐渐明朗，预计市场会出现一些波 ...

2026年1月底，全球金融市场在48小时内经历了前所未有的剧烈震荡。 黄金价格单日跌幅高达12.92%，跌破4500美元/盎司；白银更是出现史诗级闪崩，盘 中暴跌35.89%，创下四十年未见的极端行情。 与此同时，韩国综合股价指数暴跌超过5%，触发熔断机制，交易暂停5分钟，整个亚洲金融市场随之陷入恐 慌。 这场震荡导致全球超过27万个交易账户爆仓，贵金属市场短短两天内蒸发近10万亿美元财富。 加密货币市场同样未能幸免，比特币单日暴跌近7%，全网爆 仓金额超过16亿美元。 从贵金属到大宗商品，从股票市场到数字资产，跨品类资产的共振下跌让市场恐慌情绪达到极点。 韩国股市的熔断不仅反映了单一市场问题，更是全球金融体系结构性调整的体现。 韩国股市高度依赖半导体等少数行业，外资持股比例高，当全球流动性 收紧时，这种结构性脆弱性被放大。 算法交易在市场下跌时自动执行止损指令，形成"下跌—平仓—再下跌"的恶性循环，加速了市场崩溃。 印尼股市在此之前已出现大幅下跌，表明危机从欧美市场向亚洲蔓延的趋势。 这种跨市场联动效应与2008年金融危机初期场景高度相似，但当前全球金融 市场的杠杆水平更高、交易工具更复杂，跨市场联动性更强 ...

另外，美联储的独立性将遭遇特朗普的严重挑战，美元的信用将大打折扣，美元后续贬值仍将是大概率事件。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前驱动黄金牛市的因素并没有改变，牛市依旧可期。不过短期边际偏空的影响因 素并没有完全消除，金价短期仍存回调风险。 技术面：日线上，隔夜黄金下行且收阴线，警惕金价再度回落风险。 黄金方面： 近期黄金价格暴跌导火索是特朗普任命沃什为下一任美联储主席，不过这只是表面原因。黄金价格大幅走弱的主要原因在于前 期非理性超涨，获利止盈需求的积累导致较小的边际扰动带来剧烈的回调压力。 从基本面来看，驱动黄金牛市的原因并没有发生改变。不管谁任美联储主席，在美国政府巨大债务面前，美联储不撒钱解决问 题就没有存在的必要，所以美联储宽松在后市依旧会是市场交易的主旋律。 4小时线上看，本轮行情回调有所企稳，短期存在进一步反弹的风险。日内关注上方4992美元一线压力情况。 原油方面： 技术面：日线上，此前行情自高位回落且收阴线，显示短期油价偏弱。从指标上看，行情仍然处于20日均线上方运行，在有效 跌破20日均线之前不宜过分看空。日内关注下方61美元一线支撑情况。 美元指数： 此前美元指数连续下跌之后最 ...

Key Points - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 basis point cuts, aligning with market expectations. Fed Chair Powell indicated that rate hikes are not a basic assumption for future actions, emphasizing the Fed's independence [1][19] - President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, pending Senate approval. However, Senate leaders from both parties have expressed intentions to block Walsh's nomination unless investigations into Powell are dropped. Analysts suggest that Walsh's leadership could lead to significant changes in Fed policy, potentially combining rate cuts with balance sheet reduction [2][20] - Walsh's nomination triggered hawkish expectations, causing a historic drop in global precious metals markets. Silver fell over 35%, gold dropped nearly 13%, and platinum and palladium also saw significant declines [3][20] - China's January manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.3, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4, reflecting reduced business activity in the construction sector [4][21] - In the U.S., durable goods orders for November 2025 increased by 5.3%, the largest growth in six months, surpassing the expected 3.7% increase. Core durable goods orders rose by 0.5%, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth [5][21] - Trump stated that he is not concerned about the dollar's performance, suggesting it is returning to its appropriate level. Following his comments, the dollar index fell over 1%, reaching a nearly four-year low [6][21] Market Review Futures Market - ICE Brent crude oil rose by 7.32% to $69.83, while COMEX gold fell by 2.12% to $4907.5. The dollar index decreased by 39.01 basis points, leading to a depreciation of the yuan by 102 basis points [22][24] Stock Market - The A-share market saw a decline, with the small-cap index dropping 3.78%, while the Shanghai 50 index increased by 1.13%. The overall market sentiment has softened as the spring rally comes to an end [26][30] Bond Market - In the bond market, credit bonds generally declined, with 3Y and AA- bonds down by 7 basis points. Government bonds also saw slight declines, with 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y bonds down by 2 basis points [13][32]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Biodiesel, Cottonseed Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Soybeans, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] - **Neutral**: Most other industries including stocks, bonds, and various metals and agricultural products, with suggestions of short - term caution, waiting for opportunities, and controlling risks [1] 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: In the short term, policies will support the A - share market, but overseas liquidity tightening may cause panic. In the long run, the stock index is still expected to rise due to low - interest rates, "asset shortage" and economic bottom - building. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - **Metals**: Macro - level risk aversion is pressuring the non - ferrous metals sector. Supply concerns in Indonesia are affecting nickel and stainless steel, while other metals like zinc, tin, etc. are facing different price trends and risks [1]. - **Agricultural products**: Different agricultural products have different market situations. For example, cotton has support but lacks a driving force; sugar has a bearish consensus but cost support; grains are expected to oscillate and decline before the holiday [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical sector is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Some products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are showing different price movements and trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro - financial** - **Stocks**: Short - term caution is advised due to A - share weakness and overseas liquidity concerns. Long - term upward trend is expected due to low - interest rates and economic recovery [1]. - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are highlighted, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision should be monitored [1]. **Metals** - **Non - ferrous metals**: Overall under pressure from risk aversion. Nickel and stainless steel are affected by Indonesian supply issues. Zinc is expected to correct, and tin's price has fluctuated but not in a trend - reversing way. Gold and silver are in short - term oscillatory or stabilizing trends. Platinum and palladium may be supported in the short term [1]. - **Industrial metals**: Alumina is expected to oscillate near the cost line. Steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil) have limited upward space, and iron ore has a clear upper pressure [1]. **Agricultural products** - **Grains and oilseeds**: Soybeans are expected to be weak. Cotton is "supported but without a driver". Sugar has a bearish consensus but cost support. Grains are expected to decline before the holiday [1]. - **Livestock**: The pig production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Fossil fuels**: Crude oil and fuel oil may be affected by OPEC+ policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Asphalt has high profits but is also affected by supply and demand [1]. - **Chemicals**: PX drives the chemical sector. PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene have different supply - demand and price trends. Methanol, polyethylene, PVC, and LPG are affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1]. **Shipping** - **Container shipping**: The freight rate on European routes has peaked and declined before the holiday. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights and plan to raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with major indices mostly declining, yet maintaining an average daily trading volume above 3 trillion yuan, indicating active market participation [2] - The market is shifting its focus from cyclical sectors to technology growth, with significant sector differentiation observed [5] - The adjustment in the market is influenced by two main factors: a sharp decline in precious metal prices and a return of the PMI data to contraction territory, raising concerns about the economic fundamentals [5] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by approximately 1.86 basis points to 1.81%, primarily due to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect from the equity market adjustment [5] - The report highlights a significant drop in gold prices, with London spot gold experiencing a single-day decline of over 9%, marking the largest drop in nearly 40 years [5] - Lithium carbonate prices have also fallen sharply, with a weekly decline of over 18%, driven by profit-taking and stricter regulatory measures [5] Market Overview - The A-share market is characterized by a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.44% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.62%, while the ChiNext Index showed relative resilience [5] - The market's adjustment is attributed to the volatility in precious metals and economic data, particularly the PMI returning to a contraction phase, which has dampened overall risk appetite [5] - The report notes that the central bank's actions to inject liquidity through open market operations are aimed at stabilizing the funding environment ahead of the upcoming government bond supply peak [5] Sector Performance - The report indicates that sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, telecommunications, and coal have shown strong performance, while previously high-performing sectors like defense, electric equipment, and automotive have seen notable corrections [5] - The report emphasizes the need for investors to focus on sectors with genuine technological breakthroughs and solid order backing, particularly in the context of the commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence themes [9] Economic Indicators - The report mentions that the January PMI data has intensified market concerns regarding economic fundamentals, necessitating close attention to potential growth-stabilizing policies [9] - The report also highlights the importance of monitoring the central bank's liquidity management and government bond issuance pressures in the near term [5][9]

Market Overview - The global financial market is experiencing a significant downturn, with over $12 trillion in market value evaporating in just a few days, indicating a severe market collapse rather than a normal correction [3][5][11] - Precious metals like gold and silver have seen drastic declines, with gold dropping approximately 13% and silver plummeting by 36% within a short period [3][5] Causes of Market Turmoil - The turmoil is largely attributed to the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, particularly the hawkish stance of the newly nominated chair, Kevin Warsh, which has led to a rapid shift in market expectations and a flight of capital [5][7] - There is a growing sense of panic among investors, with many top funds quietly reducing their positions before the market downturn, highlighting a disconnect between public advice and private actions [5][7][12] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors are exhibiting signs of panic, with many still attempting to average down their positions despite the overwhelming market decline [7][9] - The current environment has led to a loss of trust in traditional market indicators and predictions, as the rapid wealth erosion has exceeded most individuals' psychological tolerance [9][11] Capital Flow Dynamics - The capital that has exited the market is believed to have moved into safer assets or to those who can manipulate market conditions, leaving ordinary investors vulnerable [12][14] - The ongoing market conditions raise questions about the ownership of assets, as the perception of ownership may not align with the reality of market dynamics [14]

2月2日，全球金融市场迎来"黑色星期一"，大宗商品、股票市场同步深度回调，贵金属、能源化工等板 块集体重挫，A股、港股及周边主要股指全线走低。 化工品价格走弱则主要跟随油价波动。格林大华期货化工负责人吴志桥表示，当前化工品交易逻辑并未 发生根本转变，但部分品种短期涨幅过快，提前透支未来需求，且临近春节下游需求将逐步转弱，持续 上涨动力不足，导致价格随油价同步回调。 展望后市，机构对贵金属市场表现出一定信心。摩根大通私人银行亚洲宏观策略主管唐雨旋认为，此次 贵金属价格下跌属于健康的技术性回调，金价仅是回到两周前水平，1月份仍录得13%的涨幅。从持仓 数据来看，新兴市场央行黄金储备占比仍偏低，ETF持仓也低于2022至2023年的高位，长线策略买家为 金价提供了稳固支撑，这也是黄金市场信心强于白银的重要原因。 长江期货研究员汪国栋认为，美国经济数据趋势性走弱，市场对美国财政情况和美联储独立性的担忧仍 存，央行购金和"去美元化"趋势并未改变。同时，在工业需求拉动下，白银现货供应维持紧张局面，中 期来看，黄金、白银价格有望重拾上行态势。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 国际市场，贵金属价格遭遇"断崖式"下跌。纽约商品交易所 ...