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大类资产早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:18
| | | --- | | come of a propo con con-come and con- | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/23 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/09/22 | 4.148 | 4.712 | 3.559 | 2.747 | 3.543 | 3.297 | 0.169 | 3.402 | | 最新变化 | 0.020 | -0.002 | 0.006 | 0.001 | 0.011 | 0.004 | -0.009 | 0.010 | | 一周变化 | 0.109 | 0.080 | 0.081 | 0.057 | 0.070 | 0.054 | -0.050 | 0.068 | | 一月变化 | -0.128 | 0.021 | 0.050 | ...
降息债市竟暴跌?投资者血亏,黄金比特币成新宠引争议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 15:00
今年9月,一场金融风暴突然刮起,原本被视为最安全的债券市场出现剧烈震荡。美联储一降息,全球 跟着同步宽松,可大家都没想到,债券价格不仅没涨,反而摔了个大跟头。英国、日本这些老牌发达国 家的国债收益率迅速飙升,超过了过去二十多年的高点,这种情况以前真不多见。大家都很困惑,习惯 的规律说降息债市得涨,现在这套老法则却好像突然失效了。 这一切的变化让市场信心遭受重创。原本债券是很多人眼里的"压舱石",稳稳当当不会让人大起大落。 但是现在,用钱买稳的投资者刚走进来就吃了闷亏。 与此同时,股市却成了大赢家,不少人索性砸锅卖铁涌进股市,觉得这里还能挣点收益。债市这边却被 资金抛弃,买债的人越想保守,账面数字反而越惨淡。 债券的这场混乱背后,其实是全球经济底子上出现了麻烦。债务越来越多,国家借钱的速度没人能拦得 住,光英国财政赤字已经快赶上全国一大半经济总量。 市场上的投资者现在一边看着收益率涨,一边忧心债主越来越多,利率一上升,账就更难算平。所有人 都在思考,老办法行不通了,光靠央行放水已救不了债市,未来是不是还会有更大的动荡? 这种打破常识的局面,让许多理财的普通人开始怀疑,市场波动是不是越来越像个无解的难题。 外部环 ...
全球财富重新分配!美联储降息后,中国接得住千亿资金吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 13:27
降息的靴子终于落地。九月十八日凌晨,美联储正式宣布降息25个基点,还释放了信号——今年内可能再降一到两次。 时隔一年,美国又拉开了降息周期的序幕,这意味着超过千亿美元的资本要往全球市场流了。这事儿听着像个确定的好消息,但大家先别着急下结论,这次 降息远没表面看起来那么简单。 首先得说,这次降息的幅度完全符合市场预期。可能有人会问,就降25个基点,是不是太谨慎了?但实际上,这个幅度刚好合适。 要是美联储敢激进降息,比如一下降50个基点,市场反而会多想——是不是美国经济出了大问题,甚至要衰退了?一旦这么想,恐慌情绪很容易起来。 美股要是大幅波动,全球那些容易受影响的资产(比如股票、基金)都躲不开,咱们A股市场也得跟着承压。所以说,25个基点是理性又克制的选择:既告 诉市场"接下来会放宽松",又避免大家反应过度。 更值得关注的是,现在市场预期十月再降息的概率已经飙到了97.4%,宽松的趋势已经没什么可怀疑的了。 但真正要警惕的是美联储的"组合策略"——一边降息放钱到市场里,一边还维持着缩表的节奏不变。所谓缩表,就是美联储卖出手里的债券,把市场上的钱 收回来。 一边放水、一边抽水,这看似矛盾的操作背后,其实是美联储在 ...
百利好晚盘分析:降息押注盛行 黄金继续破高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 09:42
Gold - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18, with projections indicating two more 25 basis point cuts in the upcoming meetings, targeting a rate of 3.4% for next year, which is less than investors expected [1] - Wall Street believes that the rate cuts will occur faster than the Fed's projections, with futures markets betting on a drop to 3% by the end of next year, significantly lower than the Fed's forecast [1] - Technical analysis shows a bullish trend for gold, with a strong likelihood of further increases, and short-term support at $3,695 [1] Oil - OPEC+ has accelerated production since April, with cumulative increases exceeding the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day planned for November 2023, ending a year earlier than expected [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 4 million barrel increase in distillate inventories, raising concerns about oversupply [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for oil, with a potential drop below $61.50 leading to a target of $55 [2] Dollar Index - New Fed Governor Milan emphasized the Fed's independence and the need for objective economic data interpretation, suggesting a rate cut of over 100 basis points by year-end [3] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted that a weak job market influenced the September rate cut decision, with further cuts likely in upcoming meetings [3] - The dollar index rebounded strongly post-Fed meeting, with resistance at the 97.80-98 range and key support at 97.23 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 has maintained a strong bullish trend with high volatility, indicating a high probability of breaking previous highs [4] Copper - Copper prices experienced a pullback from $4.65, finding support at $4.51, with a potential for further gains in the near term [5] - Short-term resistance is noted at $4.62, with a breakout potentially targeting the $4.65-$4.70 range, and support at $4.53 [5] Market Overview - The U.S. House passed a Republican funding bill, but it failed in the Senate, prompting Democratic leaders to seek discussions with Trump to avoid a government shutdown [6] - The EU Commission approved a new sanctions package against Russia, lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 per barrel and proposing a ban on Russian LNG imports by January 1, 2027, a year earlier than planned [6] - The Bank of Japan maintained interest rates, with two members proposing a 25 basis point hike and initiating an ETF selling plan with an annual reduction of 330 billion yen [7]
欧股开盘下跌,亚洲股市普遍收高,金银大涨,币圈大跌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 07:14
Group 1 - Asian stock markets rose on Monday, driven by the upward momentum in US stocks and easing concerns over the Bank of Japan's policy [1][6] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 1% at 45,493.66 points, while the South Korean Seoul Composite Index rose 0.7% to 3,468.65 points [6] - The US 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.14% [6][13] Group 2 - The announcement by Trump regarding comprehensive reforms to the H-1B visa program has introduced new uncertainties for the global tech industry and companies reliant on foreign talent [1][10] - The proposed application fee of $100,000 could significantly impact US companies, particularly tech firms in California, and the Indian IT sector valued at $280 billion [10][11] Group 3 - Despite policy uncertainties, global stock markets remain at record levels, with discussions of a potential market bubble entering the dialogue [11] - Evercore ISI estimates a 25% chance of a bubble scenario where the S&P 500 could reach 9,000 points by the end of 2026, with a base case prediction of 7,750 points [11] - Bloomberg strategists believe that the profitability of tech companies is sufficient to absorb any sudden increases in visa fees [11] Group 4 - Gold prices continued to rise, with a 5-minute increase of $5.96 per ounce, reaching a new high of $3,714.37 per ounce [2][6] - Silver prices rose by 1.48% to $43.75 [5][6] - Cryptocurrency markets saw declines, with Bitcoin down over 2%, Ethereum nearly 7%, Dogecoin close to 11%, and Cardano over 8% [9][10]
大类资产早报-20250922
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 05:33
Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: US 4.128%, UK 4.714%, France 3.553%, etc. Latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes vary by country [3] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: China (1Y) 3.520%, US 3.976%, UK 2.019%, etc. with corresponding changes [3] - Dollar exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies on September 19, 2025: South Africa zar 5.324, Russia 17.344, etc. with different changes over different periods [3] - RMB data on September 19, 2025: on - shore RMB 7.118, off - shore RMB 7.119, etc. with various changes [3] - Stock indices of major economies on September 19, 2025: Dow Jones 6664.360, S&P 500 46315.270, etc. with percentage changes over different time frames [3] - Credit bond indices: latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes of emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, etc. are presented [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - A - share closing prices: A - share 3820.09, CSI 300 4501.92, etc. with corresponding percentage changes [5] - Valuation data: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 13.96, S&P 500 is 27.73, etc. with环比 changes [5] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.52, German DAX is 2.38 with环比 changes [5] - Fund flow data: latest values and 5 - day average values of A - shares, main board, etc. are given [5] - Trading volume data: latest values and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are shown [5] - Futures basis and premium/discount data: IF basis is - 37.52, IH basis is 3.66, etc. with corresponding percentages [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T00 107.835, TF00 105.675, etc. with percentage changes [6] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4993%, R007 1.5160%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5620% with daily changes in basis points [6]
历史高点被“踩在脚下”,所有资产都在涨!
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-20 10:23
Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a significant rally in risk assets, with major indices reaching historical highs, driven by optimism and a narrative of resilience despite underlying economic concerns [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have both reached all-time highs, with year-to-date increases of 14% and 17% respectively [1]. - The MSCI All Country World Index has also hit a historical peak, indicating a global trend in rising stock prices, particularly in emerging markets [3]. - The credit market is reflecting similar optimism, with the credit spread for high-rated U.S. companies narrowing to below 0.8 percentage points, the lowest since 1998 [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The phenomenon of "fear of missing out" (FOMO) is driving investors to accept lower returns for taking on risk, as noted by asset management firms [6][7]. - The narrative of "The Great Resilience Trade" is being used to justify the current market rally, emphasizing strong consumer resilience and advancements in artificial intelligence [9][10]. - Despite the enthusiasm, some investors are cautious, noting that the current valuations leave little room for error [14][15]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as a catalyst for the market rally, with expectations of further cuts fueling investor optimism [12][13]. - The market's reaction to the Fed's policies suggests a belief that economic growth can coexist with lower interest rates, creating an ideal environment for stocks [14]. Group 4: Diverging Opinions - While many investors remain bullish, there are signs of defensive positioning, with increased short positions in small-cap stocks and inflows into safe-haven assets like gold and cash [15][16]. - Some market strategists express skepticism about the sustainability of the current rally, warning that any signs of economic weakness could disrupt the prevailing optimism [14][15].
历史高点被“踩在脚下”,所有资产都在涨!
美股IPO· 2025-09-20 09:35
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a global bull market driven by the dual catalysts of the Federal Reserve's policy shift and the AI investment narrative, marking the broadest market rally since 2021 [1][3] - Major stock indices are reaching new highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices recording year-to-date gains of 14% and 17% respectively, while the Russell 2000 index has also surpassed its previous high [4][6] - The MSCI All Country World Index has hit a historical peak, indicating a global trend, with emerging market stocks outperforming global indices, signaling a significant increase in investor risk appetite [6][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the phenomenon of extremely narrow credit spreads, with the U.S. high-grade corporate borrowing cost spread narrowing to below 0.8 percentage points, the lowest level since 1998 [6][9] - The narrative surrounding the market rally is termed "The Great Resilience Trade," supported by resilient consumer behavior, the ongoing AI revolution, and easing trade tensions from the White House [11][12] - Investment firms express concerns about the sustainability of the current market conditions, with warnings about high valuations, slowing revenue growth, and significant investment needs from AI giants [13][14] Group 3 - Despite the prevailing optimism, some investors are cautious about high geopolitical risks, a slowing U.S. labor market, and uncontrolled inflation, suggesting that current valuations leave little room for error [15][16] - Defensive positioning is being adopted by some investment teams, with indications that the market's expectations for further Fed rate cuts may be overly optimistic [16][17] - The article notes that while skepticism exists, it is viewed by some as potential fuel for the next phase of market growth, with a prevailing belief that investors should not oppose the Federal Reserve [18][19]
全球资产观察月报:中国股票领涨,沪指创十年新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 14:41
Market Overview - In August, the overall market risk appetite improved, with Chinese stocks leading the gains at a return of 7.2% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3800 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high [1] - Daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets significantly increased to 22,796 billion yuan [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations rose, contributing to an increase in gold prices [1] - OPEC+ announced a substantial increase in production, leading to a decline in oil prices by 6.53% [1] Asset Performance - The ranking of asset returns for August is as follows: Chinese stocks > Gold > Global stocks > Global bonds > Agricultural products > Cash > Foreign exchange > Domestic bonds > Real estate > Industrial products > Oil [1] Chinese Stock Market - The Chinese stock market continued to perform well, with major indices rising: the Wind China 500R Index increased by 7.2%, the Wind All A Index rose by 10.9%, and the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index gained 3.3% [10] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 22,796 billion yuan, up from 16,101 billion yuan the previous month, indicating increased market activity [10] - The technology sector, particularly in AI, computing power, and semiconductors, showed strong performance with a monthly increase of 16.3% [11] Global Stock Market - The global stock market saw most indices rise, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets [5] - Vietnam and Brazil led the gains with returns of 12.0% and 8.9%, respectively, while Saudi Arabia and India lagged with returns of -2.9% and -2.2% [5] - Developed markets, particularly Japan, performed well with a return of 5.9%, while Germany and France had returns below 1% [5] Bond Market - The bond market faced pressure in August, with rising yield expectations due to inflation concerns [12] - Convertible bonds led the performance with a yield of 4.32%, while interest rate bonds showed the weakest performance with a decline of 0.44% [12] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 13.35 basis points to 1.84% [12] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached new highs, closing at $3,516.0 per ounce, a 4.9% increase from the previous month [17] - Oil prices declined by 4% to $67 per barrel due to increased supply and weakened demand [17] - In the agricultural sector, soybeans showed the best performance with a 6.4% increase [18] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in first-tier cities continued to show a downward trend, with investment indices declining [20] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 1.6% to 1.786 million square meters [22] - The overall market remains under pressure, indicating that recovery in the industry requires further observation of subsequent data [22] Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell by 2.20% to 97.85, reflecting a weakening trend [24] - The decline in the dollar has put upward pressure on the renminbi exchange rate [24] Cash Market - The money market fund index rose to 1,706.44 points, a slight increase of 0.09% from the previous month [26] - The annualized yield of the Yu'ebao seven-day fund was 1.06%, showing a slight increase [26]
美联储降息后 哪些资产有望受益?
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-09-19 09:46
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, impacting global markets significantly [1] - Following the announcement, major US stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 124.10 points to 46142.42, the S&P 500 up by 31.61 points to 6631.96, and the Nasdaq rising by 209.40 points to 22470.73 [1] - International gold prices experienced a slight decline, with spot gold down 0.4% to $3644.01 per ounce, as the market reassessed the Fed's stance [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the new interest rate cut cycle will benefit various assets, including stocks and gold, although there remains some uncertainty about the Fed's commitment to a prolonged easing cycle [2] - The domestic technology sector is expected to attract overseas investment, particularly in AI and semiconductor fields, which could lead to a continued strong performance in Chinese tech stocks [2] - Historical trends suggest that US stocks typically perform well in the 12 to 18 months following the start of a Fed easing cycle, provided the economy does not enter a recession [2] Group 3 - Long-term concerns regarding the potential loss of the Federal Reserve's independence may lead investors to demand higher risk premiums on US Treasuries, especially long-term bonds [3] - The current independence of the Fed remains intact, but this issue could become increasingly significant over time, warranting investor attention [3]