9月5日消息，三大指数全线收涨，创业板指涨超6%，北证50涨超5%。板块方面，固态电池板块持续走强，派特尔30cm涨 停，金银河、誉辰智能、天华新能、先导智能、利元亨、厦钨新能20cm涨停；光伏设备涨幅居前，锦浪科技、德业股份、通润 装备（维权）涨停；风电设备走高，运达股份20cm涨停，吉鑫科技、大金重工、金风科技、明阳智能涨停；光刻机概念活跃， 腾景科技、苏大维格（维权）20cm涨停；贵金属板块午后拉升，西部黄金涨停；下跌方面，银行板块走弱，邮储银行跌幅居 前；乳业板块调整，均瑶健康跌幅居前。总体来看，个股呈涨多跌少，上涨个股超4800只。 盘面上，电池、光伏设备、能源金属板块涨幅居前，兵装重组概念、乳业、银行板块跌幅居前。 截至收盘，沪指报3812.51点，涨1.24%；深成指报12590.56点，涨3.89%；创指报2958.18点，涨6.55%。 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the gold market, analyzing the reasons for gold price fluctuations and providing future price outlooks [1][3][7] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Gold prices are in a high - level oscillation, with multiple factors contributing to an upward trend. The core market contradictions are the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks [1][7] Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Multiple Fed officials believe labor - market concerns are the main reason for future rate cuts. Trump is still committed to promoting peace between Russia and Ukraine. Trump's government asked the Supreme Court to rule on tariff - collection rights [2] Price Logic - US economic data in August was mixed. Weak employment data strengthened the rate - cut expectation in September, while strong service - sector data added uncertainty. The market is waiting for non - farm payroll data, and the "August effect" may make the 9 - month rate - cut expectation fluctuate [3] Political and Policy Uncertainty - Concerns about the Fed's independence and potential political influence on the easing path, along with fiscal risks from tariff issues, provide support for gold [4] Future Outlook - Technically, gold's next target is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the $49 - $50 historical high. The weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3350, 3600], and the weekly London silver spot in the range of [38, 42] [7] Commodity Index - On September 4, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all declined. The precious - metals index fell 0.31% on the day, rose 3.73% in the past 5 days, 4.18% in the past month, and 28.75% year - to - date [45][47]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is facing potential supply - demand imbalances, with a bearish outlook if OPEC+ further releases production capacity [1]. - Precious metals are strongly influenced by interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, and the focus is on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - Different metals and commodities have varying trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand changes, and inventory adjustments, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3]. - The stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend, and the market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology - growth sectors while also paying attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - The yield curve of treasury bonds is likely to steepen, and attention should be paid to the supply of government bonds and the matching of funds [48]. Summaries by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent 11 contract down 0.76%. US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2415000 barrels last week. If OPEC+ further releases the remaining 1.657 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts, the supply - demand will be bearish. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The third batch of quotas was released later than expected. The supply pressure of LU has eased, and its warehouse receipts decreased slightly. FU lacks obvious drivers but may get geopolitical premium support [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The 9 - month CP remained stable. After the gas off - season, it showed some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and rebounding domestic demand, the price of civil gas increased. The high - basis difference pattern is maintained, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [22]. - **Coal (Coke and Coking Coal)**: The prices of coke and coking coal rebounded during the day. The first round of coke price cuts was partially implemented. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and are under short - term pressure [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight US economic data was mixed. Supported by stable interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metals are strongly running. Focus on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The market is highly concerned about the non - farm data. Short - term long positions can still be held, paying attention to the performance at 79500 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate has seasonally increased. It is expected to test the resistance in the 21000 - yuan area in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand. The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased, and it may test the key level of 22000 yuan. The idea of shorting the profit of the futures market remains unchanged [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel weakened, and the market trading picked up. The political unrest in Indonesia has gradually subsided. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel decreased. Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fell. The inventory of LME tin increased slightly. Shanghai tin adjusted to 271000 yuan. Short - term long positions can be flexibly held based on 270000 - 271000 yuan [10]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The import volume remained high, and the port inventory increased significantly. The supply in the inland area increased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased slightly. Although the current situation is weak, the market is expected to be strong due to the expected increase in downstream demand [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - trading chemical market stabilized, and pure benzene rebounded to 6000 yuan/ton. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The market may improve in the third quarter, but the positive factors are limited [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The downstream products of propylene face high cost pressure, and the demand for propylene is weak. The supply of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is gradually entering the peak season, but the actual demand recovery is slow [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is running weakly with increasing supply and weak demand. It may fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda is weak. The overall inventory is increasing, and it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation pattern [28]. - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA are weakly oscillating. The terminal weaving orders are increasing, but the production growth of PX is limited. Attention should be paid to the oil price direction and the PX - polyester balance [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade is uncertain, and the soybean meal may continue to oscillate in the short term. The global soybean oil market is strong, which may drive up the soybean crushing volume. In the long - term, the soybean meal is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are oscillating. The supply of Chinese soybeans in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Overseas palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and the domestic demand is in the peak season. Consider buying at low prices [36]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is under harvesting pressure, and its export is declining. The domestic rapeseed market is expected to be in a tight - balance state, and the futures may stabilize in the short term [37]. - **Corn**: The domestic new - season corn is likely to have a good harvest, but the old - crop carry - over inventory is low. Corn may continue to oscillate strongly before and after the new - grain purchase, and then may run weakly at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: US cotton is oscillating narrowly. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate, with strong support below and limited upward space in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are falling. The domestic sugar sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apple**: The early - maturing apple prices are high, and the short - term price may continue to rise. However, the supply - side positive factors are limited in the long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Others - **Stock Index**: The stock market was weak yesterday, and the stock index futures all fell. The short - term macro situation is uncertain, and the stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The net supply of government bonds in September is expected to be high. The yield curve is likely to steepen [48].

金属期权 2025-09-05 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏弱震荡，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属多头上涨突破上行，构建现货避险策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | ...

黄金在亚洲早盘小幅走高。现货黄金上涨0.2%，报每盎司3,554.31美元。澳新 银行报告称，黄金近期的 涨势暂歇，交易员正等待今日晚些时候将公布的美国非农就业数据。该数据应会帮助确定美联储的利率 路径。澳新银行称，市场也已锁定获利，因为金价此前的涨势是由强劲的避险需求和对美联储降息的预 期推动的。如果美联储降息，将进一步提振不孳息的黄金的吸引力。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations after reaching new highs, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3602.40 per ounce, down 0.91% [1] - The recent ADP employment data for August showed an increase of 54,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, indicating potential economic weakness [1] - The market is now pricing in nearly a 100% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, following an increase in initial jobless claims to 237,000, the highest since June [1] Group 2 - Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, indicated the need for a rate cut in the next meeting, suggesting multiple cuts could occur within the next 3 to 6 months [1] - Analysts from Baocun Futures noted an accelerating upward trend in gold prices, driven by increased safe-haven demand as equity markets show signs of weakness [1] - Technically, both New York and London gold have broken through the upper range of the consolidation seen since the second quarter, indicating strong upward momentum [1]

来源：米筐投资 市场分歧加剧的特征在本周愈发清晰。 这种分化背后是资金调仓的明显迹象：沪深两市成交额连续第16个交易日突破万亿元，但较前一日缩量 超5000亿元，显示增量资金入场节奏放缓，存量博弈特征凸显。 北向资金的持仓结构也反映出防御倾向，二季度对金融、工业板块分别加仓446亿元和237亿元，而对消 费板块则进行了减持。 当前市场调整空间的判断需结合估值结构。上证指数市盈率处于近十年86.5%分位，但显著低于2007年 和2015年的历史峰值，整体尚未出现全面泡沫。 机构普遍认为调整幅度不会特别大，中原证券等机构指出，财政政策积极发力与货币政策维持宽松的背 景下，市场底部将呈现逐级抬升趋势。 不过结构性差异明显，科创综指市盈率已处于历史极值，部分科技标的估值与业绩匹配度不足，短期波 动风险需警惕。 后市修复需关注三重信号。政策层面，超长期特别国债发行进度与设备更新补贴落地效果将直接影响基 建产业链预期； 产业端，半导体、新能源等行业的中报业绩能否延续高增长，以及AI应用端是否出现现象级产品，将 决定成长板块的估值修复空间。 国际层面，美联储降息节奏与美元指数走势也会通过汇率渠道影响A股资金结构。 把握节奏 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced China's first anti-circumvention investigation ruling, determining that U.S. exporters circumvented anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive single-mode optical fibers by exporting related cutoff wavelength shifted single-mode optical fibers to China. Anti-circumvention measures will be implemented from September 4 [1] - In August, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 54,000, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, with a revised figure of 104,000 for July. The ISM services PMI for August was reported at 52, marking the fastest expansion in six months, driven by the strongest growth in orders in nearly a year [1][5] Group 2 - In the dual-fuel market, the main contract showed a strong trend, with a continued decrease in coking coal positions. Steel production from the five major materials decreased week-on-week, while total inventory continued to accumulate, particularly in hot-rolled coil [2][25] - Methanol prices increased by 1.18% in the night session, with a significant rise in the number of imported cargoes arriving at ports. Coastal methanol inventory reached 1.3985 million tons, a historical high, with a week-on-week increase of 99,000 tons [3][14] - In the precious metals market, gold prices fell after a period of consolidation, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. Concerns arose regarding potential import tariffs on silver as the U.S. Geological Survey proposed including silver in a list of critical minerals [4][18] Group 3 - The State Council issued opinions to enhance the potential of sports consumption and promote high-quality development in the sports industry, emphasizing increased financial support and encouraging sports enterprises to go public [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation released an action plan for stable growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry, targeting an average growth rate of around 7% for major sectors from 2025 to 2026 [7]

机构认为，周线级别调整，沪指震荡区间大概在250点-300点左右。 【财经日历】 中国重工A股股票终止上市； 美国非农就业数据发布； 当地时间周四，美股三大指数收涨，截至收盘，道指涨0.77%，标普500指数涨0.83%，纳指涨0.98%。 大型科技股多数上涨，亚马逊涨4.3%，奈飞涨逾2%，Meta、特斯拉均涨超1%，谷歌、苹果、微软小幅走高，谷歌股价创下历史新高。芯片公司博通上涨 1.2%，盘后在预测第四季度营收高于华尔街预期后股价继续走高。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.11%。个股方面，百济神州跌超5%，阿里巴巴跌超4%，蔚来跌逾3%，小鹏跌逾2%；携程涨超2%，百 度涨逾1%。 其他个股方面，赛富时股价逆势下跌4.9%。公司预计第三季度营收低于市场预期，反映其人工智能平台的变现进展缓慢。 成衣品牌美鹰傲飞股价大涨38%，此前公司预计第三季度可比销售额高于预期。非必需消费品板块整体上涨2.3%。 大宗商品市场方面，国际油价下跌，WTI原油期货下跌0.49美元，收于每桶63.48美元，跌幅0.77%；布伦特原油期货下跌0.61美元，收于每桶66.99美元，跌 幅0.90%。 2025低 ...

Market Performance - The US stock market showed positive performance with major indices in the green, while the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell over 1%, indicating weak performance of Chinese concept stocks [1] - The Wande China Technology Leaders Index dropped by 1.93%, with notable declines in stocks such as Alibaba, which fell by 3.7%, and several others experiencing declines exceeding 10% [1] Employment Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The ADP employment report indicated an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, which was below market expectations, contributing to a cooling labor market narrative [3] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 were reported at 237,000, higher than anticipated, reinforcing expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 97.4% probability of a rate cut in September [3] Commodity Market Trends - Gold and oil prices continued to decline, with spot gold prices falling below $3,550 per ounce, while crude oil futures also saw a decrease of nearly 1% [6] - Year-to-date, gold has shown a remarkable performance with an approximate increase of 35%, driven by factors such as central bank purchases and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [8][9] Gold Price Outlook - Analysts suggest that ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes may sustain demand for gold, potentially pushing prices above $4,000 per ounce [9] - Some experts predict that if the Federal Reserve's credibility is compromised, gold prices could even exceed $5,000 per ounce, highlighting a bullish long-term outlook for gold [9][10]