Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the dual drive of technology and domestic demand in China's economic development, particularly in the context of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][34] - Historical policies from the National People's Congress (NPC) have evolved from focusing on expanding domestic demand and reform to promoting innovation and common prosperity, aligning with the current global economic environment [1][18] - The report outlines that the stock market typically experiences an upward trend before the NPC, fluctuates during the meetings, and rebounds afterward, indicating a strong correlation between policy announcements and market performance [2][24] Group 2 - Expectations for the upcoming NPC include a more proactive and focused policy structure, with an emphasis on stabilizing growth and adjusting the economic structure, where technology and domestic demand are seen as the biggest winners [2][34] - The report identifies key investment themes for 2026, including technology (especially AI), consumption, green energy, and cyclical sectors, suggesting that these areas will benefit from policy support and economic recovery [3][34] - The anticipated legislative review of the "Ecological Environment Code" is highlighted as a significant milestone for integrating green development into legal practice, indicating a strong focus on sustainable investment opportunities [3][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts and risks have a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and base metals. For example, the gold price is affected by the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, and the copper price rises due to the fermentation of geopolitical risks [2][4][8]. - Different metals show different trends, including price increases, oscillations, and oscillations with an upward or downward bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot markets generally rose. For example, the daily increase of Comex gold 2602 was 1.82%, and the daily increase of London gold spot was 1.88% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of some contracts increased, while the open interest decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2602 increased by 25,303, and the open interest decreased by 1,496 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The joint military strike by the US and Israel on Iran has led to a sharp escalation of the regional situation, which has a significant impact on the gold market [4]. Silver - **Price Performance**: The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot markets generally rose. For example, the daily increase of Comex silver 2602 was 6.21%, and the daily increase of London silver spot was 6.30% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of some contracts increased, while the open interest decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai silver 2602 increased by 31,572, and the open interest decreased by 2,359 [4]. - **Trend**: It is in an oscillatory pattern [2]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The price of the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.22%, and the price of the London copper 3M electronic disk rose by 0.28%. However, the night - trading price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.62% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index increased by 79,669, and the open interest increased by 19,913. The trading volume of the London copper 3M electronic disk increased by 7,286, and the open interest decreased by 497 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Geopolitical risks have led to a sharp escalation of the regional situation, and the supply of refined copper in December 2025 was in surplus [8]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.57%, while the closing price of the London zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 1.74% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 10,174, and the open interest increased by 2,112. The trading volume of the London zinc increased by 434, and the open interest decreased by 3,669 [11]. - **News**: The central bank of China adjusted the forward foreign exchange sales risk reserve ratio, and the situation in the Middle East affected shipping prices [12]. - **Trend**: It is oscillating with a upward bias [2]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 0.27%, while the closing price of the London lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.96% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 6,221, and the open interest decreased by 1,080. The trading volume of the London lead decreased by 706, and the open interest decreased by 1,561 [14]. - **News**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant escalation of the regional situation [15]. - **Trend**: The decrease in inventory supports the price, and the trend strength is neutral [2][14]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The prices of the Shanghai tin main contract and the London tin 3M electronic disk rose significantly. The daily increase of the Shanghai tin main contract was 8.53%, and the daily increase of the London tin 3M electronic disk was 6.74% [18]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 227,884, and the open interest increased by 42,991. The trading volume of the London tin increased by 650, and the open interest decreased by 231 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Geopolitical events in the Middle East have a significant impact on the tin market [20]. - **Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - geopolitics [2]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy contracts showed different trends. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 10, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract decreased by 76 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts also showed different changes [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The situation in Iran and the adjustment of the US PPI have an impact on the market [23]. - **Trend**: Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy have a certain upward trend, while alumina is neutral [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price Performance**: The prices of platinum futures and spot markets generally rose, while the prices of palladium showed different trends. For example, the increase of platinum futures 2606 was 5.81%, and the increase of palladium futures 2606 was 8.09% [24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed differently [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The situation in Iran and other geopolitical events have an impact on the market [27]. - **Trend**: Both platinum and palladium have a neutral trend [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract rose by 520, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract decreased by 60 [29]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 130,488, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract increased by 29,790 [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various events in the nickel industry, such as the revision of the nickel ore benchmark price formula in Indonesia and the restart of nickel mines in Guatemala [29][30]. - **Trend**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a neutral trend [35].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the metals industry, particularly precious metals, copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, rare earths, tungsten, and uranium, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors on metal prices and supply dynamics [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals - Geopolitical disturbances have led to a steady increase in precious metal prices, with expectations for continued upward movement due to uncertainties stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict [2][6]. - Central banks continue to purchase gold, and while U.S. inflation data has risen, it has not yet impacted the interest rate reduction process, maintaining the long-term logic for precious metals [3][7]. Copper - The price of copper is driven by rigid supply and strategic stockpiling, with macroeconomic factors such as tariffs and the U.S. Trade Representative's consultation on critical minerals influencing the market [4][8]. - Supply disruptions are prevalent, but demand from sectors like AI investment, power grid construction, and robotics is expected to support prices, alongside copper's strategic resource status [9]. Aluminum - Global macroeconomic conditions are moderately improving, but high inventory levels are putting pressure on aluminum prices [10]. - Uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and geopolitical tensions contribute to a volatile market, with seasonal supply exceeding demand leading to an expected accumulation of aluminum ingots post-holiday [11][12]. Tin - Supply disruptions are decreasing, with concerns about trade blockages due to conflicts in Myanmar being mitigated by the location of core mining areas and progress in production resumption [13]. - Attention is needed on the pace of downstream recovery and stockpiling demand post-holiday [14][15]. Lithium - Post-holiday, lithium carbonate inventories are continuing to decrease, with strong demand persisting despite rising production [16]. - Anticipated reductions in export tax rebates for battery products may lead to a front-loading of battery demand [17]. - Monitoring of Zimbabwe's export policies is crucial for understanding potential supply disruptions [18]. Rare Earths - Prices for both light and heavy rare earths have increased following the holiday, indicating a positive market outlook for these strategic resources [19][20]. Tungsten - Domestic regulatory tightening and geopolitical issues in Myanmar are reducing supply rigidity, while overseas price increases and U.S. government AI pricing models are adding strategic premiums to tungsten [20]. - The current supply chain dynamics are leading to a pricing surge, with high prices expected to persist until supply issues are resolved [21][22]. Uranium - January saw the highest long-term contract prices for natural uranium in a decade, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development, suggesting a sustained upward trend in uranium prices [22].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 避险与通胀，金属迎全面重估 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S08805 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - and long - term upward drivers of precious metals remain unchanged, and the precious metals sector has shown signs of recovery from the sharp decline at the end of January. It is recommended that investors maintain a bullish stance, but strictly control positions to avoid short - term volatility risks [4]. - The callback of precious metals has a reasonable basis, but the hawkish policy stance of the next Fed Chairman has no fundamental impact on the long - cycle bull market of gold. It is expected that gold will rise in the medium and long term, and silver, platinum, and palladium will be stronger than gold in the medium term. Investors are advised to go long after the downward momentum of the precious metals sector weakens, while being vigilant against the medium - term risk that the Fed's tightening of monetary policy may end the precious metals bull market [6]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: London gold fluctuated between $5150 - 5200 per ounce, waiting for clearer guidance. The People's Bank of China's reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales by financial institutions supported the prices of domestic precious metals. Zimbabwe's ban on lithium ore exports pushed up the prices of industrial precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Guangzhou Platinum Index, and Guangzhou Palladium Index increased by 0.12%, 2.22%, 5.81%, and 3.85% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each variety also changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: The determination of the next Fed Chairman reduced the market's demand for safe - haven assets. The callback of precious metals was reasonable, but it did not change the long - and medium - term upward trend. The hawkish policy stance was more favorable to silver, platinum, and palladium compared to gold. Since November 2025, a large amount of investment capital has entered the precious metals market, increasing price volatility. The annualized volatility of gold and silver reached 30% and 80%, respectively [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including the Shanghai and London gold and silver futures and spot indices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold TD, the holdings of gold and silver ETFs, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US International Trade Commission will conduct an investigation to evaluate the economic impact of revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations status, with the results to be announced by August 21st. It will also consider a scenario of gradually imposing partial tariffs on important national security products over five years if Congress revokes the status [17]. - Oman, as a mediator, stated that the US and Iran made significant progress in nuclear - dispute negotiations. Both sides plan to return to their capitals for consultations and resume negotiations soon, with technical - level discussions scheduled in Vienna next week [17]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased slightly by 4,000 to 212,000. The labor market remains stable, and the unemployment rate in February is expected to remain unchanged. It is expected that the Fed will not cut interest rates before Chairman Powell's term ends in May [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for precious metals due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East situation, particularly the military actions between the US and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran's military conflict may impact its production capabilities, particularly in metals where it holds a high global market share, such as strontium (56% of global production) and DRI (24% of global production) [4][5]. - Copper and zinc are identified as critical metals with significant implications for global supply chains, especially in light of potential disruptions in the Middle East [6]. Precious Metals - The report anticipates that geopolitical tensions will enhance the appeal of gold and silver as inflation hedges, with gold prices expected to rise in response to increased demand [3]. - The report also discusses the potential for silver prices to be more volatile due to its dual role as an industrial and financial asset [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report indicates that the ongoing conflict may tighten the global aluminum supply, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could lead to price increases [11][12]. - It highlights that the aluminum market is currently in a state of tight balance, with potential for price support due to supply constraints [11]. New Energy Metals - The report discusses Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting their pricing and availability [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.77% in the week from February 23 to February 27, outperforming the overall market [14] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals [4][48] - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases as the traditional peak season approaches in March and April, with macro funds returning to the market [29] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking second among 31 sectors, up 9.77% [14] - The small metals sector surged by 17.72%, while energy metals, new materials, precious metals, and industrial metals also saw increases of 9.32%, 9.26%, 8.32%, and 7.75% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of February 27, LME copper closed at $13,296 per ton, up 2.56% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥103,920 per ton, up 3.53% [33] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $3,142 per ton, up 1.26%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥23,835 per ton, up 2.76% [37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price was $3,308 per ton, down 2.20%, while SHFE zinc was ¥24,710 per ton, up 2.13% [41] - **Tin**: LME tin surged to $58,050 per ton, up 24.68%, and SHFE tin reached ¥453,240 per ton, up 24.04% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $5,296.40 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE gold at ¥1,147.90 per gram, up 1.93% [49] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a spike in gold prices, with a peak of $5,500 per ounce observed in the dark market [4][48] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tightening as domestic smelters are expected to undergo maintenance starting in March, while demand is supported by rigid replenishment needs post-Spring Festival [33] - Aluminum supply is affected by overseas production cuts, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.32 million tons in China [39] - The overall demand for aluminum is expected to rise as downstream production resumes [39] Economic Indicators - The U.S. January PPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, above the expected 2.6%, indicating rising inflation concerns [4][29] - The Chicago PMI for February was reported at 57.7, exceeding expectations, which may influence future monetary policy [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][56]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, leading to an increase in gold prices. As of February 27, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $5,296.4 per ounce, a 3.24% increase month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 2.1% increase to 1,101 tons. The joint military actions by the US and Israel against Iran have heightened market risk aversion, which is expected to drive gold prices higher in the short term. Long-term, unresolved US debt issues and weakening dollar credit are anticipated to support a continued upward trend in gold prices [4]. - Industrial Metals: Industrial metals are expected to open up upward price potential. Copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 yuan per ton as of February 27. Domestic copper social inventory reached 531,700 tons, while LME copper inventory was at 253,700 tons. The global copper resource bottleneck is expected to persist, with AI opening up future demand growth. Short-term macro sentiment is likely to dominate, but copper prices are expected to remain strong [5][6]. - Aluminum: As of February 27, SHFE aluminum futures rose by 2.8% to 23,835 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 1,157,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 265,000 tons. The closure of 580,000 tons of capacity at the Mozal aluminum plant and high electricity prices in Europe are expected to tighten global aluminum supply. With improving macro sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to trend upward in the medium to long term [6]. - Tin: As of February 27, SHFE tin futures surged by 24% to 453,000 yuan per ton. Domestic social inventory stood at 13,109 tons, while LME tin inventory was at 7,550 tons. The development of AI technology is expected to increase demand for tin, which is seen as a "computing metal," leading to further demand elasticity [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a current price of $5,296.4 per ounce and a 3.24% month-on-month increase. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.1% to 1,101 tons [4]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 yuan per ton, with domestic social inventory at 531,700 tons and LME inventory at 253,700 tons. The global copper resource bottleneck is expected to continue [6]. - Aluminum: Prices rose by 2.8% to 23,835 yuan per ton, with domestic social inventory at 1,157,000 tons. The closure of capacity and high electricity prices are expected to tighten supply [6]. - Tin: Prices surged by 24% to 453,000 yuan per ton, with domestic social inventory at 13,109 tons. Increased demand from AI technology is anticipated [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Luoyang Molybdenum. For aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted as a potential investment [7][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the precious metals sector due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East conflict, particularly the military actions between the U.S. and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran accounts for approximately 56% of global strontium production, 24% of DRI production, and has significant copper and zinc reserves, which could be impacted by the ongoing conflict [4][5]. - It suggests that the geopolitical situation may exacerbate supply shortages for copper and other critical metals, urging investors to monitor these developments closely [6]. Aluminum Sector - The report discusses the potential tightening of the global aluminum supply due to the conflict, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could impact around 600,000 tons of aluminum supply [12][14]. - It indicates that the aluminum market is currently stable, but geopolitical risks could lead to price volatility [11]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices, as Zimbabwe is a key supplier [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting pricing dynamics in the market [15]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as companies in the copper and aluminum sectors such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao Group [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are expected to boost the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold and silver [2]. - Despite inventory accumulation in copper, prices remain strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve considerations from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations as the consumption season approaches, supported by macroeconomic factors [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from Myanmar [8]. - Lithium prices are rising due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are showing strength as demand recovers with the resumption of production [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are driving up demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, with specific companies recommended for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Despite a significant increase in global copper inventories, prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and expectations of domestic demand recovery [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to see price volatility as downstream production resumes post-holiday, with macroeconomic conditions remaining favorable [4]. - **Nickel**: Prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel manufacturers [5]. - **Tin**: Prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns stemming from Myanmar's political situation [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, influenced by export restrictions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: The price of cobalt has risen by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, supported by recovering demand as production resumes [10]. Key Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao, among others, reflecting strong growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [11].