Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reactions - Power stocks declined across the board, with Huadian International down 5.86%, Longyuan Power down 3.62%, Huaneng International down 1.98%, and China Resources Power down 2.15% [1] - Shoucheng Holdings fell nearly 6% after reporting a revenue of HKD 1.437 billion for 2025, an increase of 18.24% year-on-year, and a proposed final dividend of HKD 0.0047 per share [1] - Meili Tianyuan Medical Health dropped over 11% post-earnings, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 30%, despite reporting a revenue of approximately CNY 3 billion, a 16.7% increase year-on-year [2] - Brilliance China experienced a drop of over 10%, reporting a revenue of CNY 1.182 billion for 2025, a 7.84% increase, but a net profit decline of 35.97% [2] - Photovoltaic stocks fell sharply, with Xinte Energy down 6.09% and Junda Co. down 5.04%, following the announcement of a 9% VAT export tax rebate cancellation on solar products [2] Group 2: Company Earnings and Financial Results - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of CNY 144.145 billion for the year, a slight increase of 4.49%, but a net profit decline of 13.39% [3] - Yadea Holdings saw a rise of over 5% after announcing expected net profits of no less than CNY 2.9 billion for 2025, compared to CNY 1.27 billion in 2024 [3] - CRRC Corporation reported a revenue of CNY 273.063 billion for 2025, a 10.79% increase, but a net profit increase of only 6.40% [4] - Angelalign reported a total case count of 532,400 for 2025, a 48.1% increase, with revenue rising 37.8% to USD 370 million and net profit increasing 163% to USD 26.3 million [4] - Weigao Group's revenue was approximately CNY 13.389 billion, a 2.3% increase, but net profit fell by 22% [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - Precious metals sector strengthened, with Coeur Mining up 5.94% and Pan American Silver up 4.13%, as gold prices surged over 3% to USD 4,538.25 per ounce [5] - Argan's stock surged 37.91% after reporting Q4 revenue of USD 262.1 million, exceeding market expectations [5] - Unity Software rose 13.54% after strong Q1 2026 financial performance expectations, with projected revenue between USD 505 million and USD 508 million [6] - AstraZeneca's stock increased by 2.74% following the approval of a new treatment for breast cancer in China [8] - Major U.S. indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.8%, as concerns about economic downturns increased due to geopolitical tensions [8]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: March 30, 2026 - **Research Institute**: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekend market was dominated by geopolitical conflicts and policy games. Energy and precious metals fluctuated violently. The escalation of the Middle East situation pushed up the risk premium of crude oil, and the price of domestic refined gold jewelry approached 1,400 yuan/gram. Macro - policies showed differentiation: overseas, the Fed's dot - plot implied only one interest - rate cut in 2026, which suppressed risk assets; domestically, the central bank maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, showing the resilience of the industrial fundamentals [1]. - In 2026 Q1, the global capital market was characterized by global differentiation, technology re - evaluation, and policy disturbances. In Q2, as the earnings reports are released, the market logic will shift from "speculating on expectations" to "looking at performance realization" [4][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session rose 2.67%. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows no sign of stopping. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal and put forward strict conditions. The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran [2][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in shock consolidation. The current adjustment is driven by the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell. The previous trading day, the stock index opened low and closed high. In Q2, the market logic will change, and high - valuation growth stocks face pressure, while low - valuation, high - dividend, and cash - flow - stable assets have stronger defensive properties [4][11]. Daily News Focus - **International News**: US President Trump claimed to control the Strait of Hormuz, and Vice - President Vance said the US would withdraw from Iran after completing its goals and that the rise in oil prices was a short - term reaction [6]. - **Domestic News**: On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the Boao Forum for Asia, Hainan Free Trade Port made its first global appearance after the whole - island customs closure [7]. - **Industry News**: From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with significant growth in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [8][9]. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 fell 1.67%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.79%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.70%, the US dollar index rose 0.26%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 8.14%, and precious metals such as London gold and silver also rose [10]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: The stock index has the same situation as mentioned before. Treasury bonds have mixed performance. The central bank's operations keep the capital market relatively stable, but long - term treasury bond futures prices may face pressure due to factors such as the Middle East situation and inflation expectations [11][12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical**: Methanol night - session rose 4.29%, with an increase in the operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and a decrease in coastal inventories. Rubber is in the low - production season, with new supply pressure expected, but the price is supported by the strong synthetic rubber. Polyolefins rebounded, and attention should be paid to the conflict situation and device operation. Glass and soda ash futures are weak, with high inventories and supply - demand imbalances [15][16][17][19]. - **Metals**: Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, downstream demand, and the US dollar. Aluminum prices may rise due to supply risks caused by the Middle East conflict [21][22][23]. - **Black Metals**: The double - coking market was weak on Friday night, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the recovery of rigid demand and the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the coal market [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal is affected by the Brazilian soybean harvest and the expected increase in US soybean exports. Oils are expected to be in high - level shock due to bio - fuel policies and oil price risks. The pig price is expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand. Sugar is affected by the Middle East situation and ethanol prices. Cotton is expected to be in shock in the short - term and supply may be tight in the long - term [26][27][28][29][30]. - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping European route fell on Friday. The price is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term [32].

Core Viewpoint - The macro market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and policy dynamics, with energy and precious metals experiencing significant volatility due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and differing monetary policies between the U.S. and China [1]. Group 1: Energy Market - The WTI crude oil price surged past $100 due to increased risk premiums from Middle Eastern tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia [1]. - The domestic energy and chemical sectors showed strength as a result of rising oil prices, while the gold price approached 1400 yuan per gram due to safe-haven demand and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [1]. - Indonesia's approval of export tariffs on coal and nickel, along with Russia's planned ban on gasoline exports starting in April, has added uncertainty to the prices of related commodities [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, primarily driven by a dual pressure from revised interest rate expectations and liquidity shocks, with a decrease in rate cut expectations leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and real interest rates [3]. - Long-term trends indicate that geopolitical risks are likely to elevate the price center for precious metals, with ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued push for de-dollarization, leading to increased gold reserves by global central banks [3]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices fell, with the market showing a shift from "trading on expectations" to "looking for actual results" as the earnings season approaches [4]. - The first quarter of 2026 is characterized by global market differentiation, technology reassessment, and policy disruptions, with the Federal Reserve signaling a prolonged hawkish stance [4]. - High-valuation growth stocks, particularly in technology, face ongoing pressure from rising risk-free rates, while low-valuation, high-dividend assets are expected to exhibit stronger defensive characteristics amid external uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Industrial Profit Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year in January and February, reflecting a recovery in industrial performance [9]. - Notable profit growth was observed in the non-ferrous metals and chemical industries, with specific sectors like aluminum processing and inorganic salt manufacturing seeing profit increases of 264.0% and 518.5%, respectively [9].

Macro Perspective - The article argues that the concept of "deposit migration" is a "pseudo-proposition," suggesting that the current historical migration of Chinese residents' wealth is primarily directed towards "deposit+" products in a low interest rate and low inflation environment, officially starting around 2023 [2] - It is estimated that between 2024 and 2025, the average net inflow into wealth management, insurance, and money market funds will reach nearly 7 trillion yuan, serving as the main force for deposit outflow [2] - The article highlights a significant shift in the underlying asset allocation structure of products, indicating that residents' funds are indirectly penetrating the equity market, particularly through insurance funds, which increased their stock allocation from 7.5% to 10.1% [2] Stock Market Insights - The article emphasizes that the 2025 high-volatility market is driven by leveraged funds and private equity, rather than direct deposit inflows, with financing funds reaching a historical high of 2.5 trillion yuan [3] - It projects that approximately 1.6 trillion yuan of net funds will flow into the stock market from residents, mainly contributed by insurance funds, indicating that this is not a result of residents' proactive risk transformation [3] - The core objective of residents' wealth allocation is to outpace inflation, with the reallocation direction of 8-10 trillion yuan of maturing deposits in 2026 depending on inflation expectations [3] Strategic Opportunities - The article suggests that market adjustments present opportunities for investing in Chinese assets, highlighting that the Chinese stock market is approaching important bottoming and rebound points [6] - It notes that China's energy consumption has a lower oil and gas proportion compared to the global average, enhancing resilience against risks, and that the overall impact of high oil prices on A-share profits remains controllable [6] - The article also points out that foreign capital is reassessing China's rise and industrial advantages amid global uncertainties, suggesting that market adjustments could be seen as opportunities for investment [6][7] Economic Stability - The article asserts that stability is a fundamental characteristic of the Chinese economy and stock market, with a lower risk evaluation compared to global counterparts [7] - It emphasizes China's diversified energy sources and complete industrial system, which have shown resilience during past crises, contributing to a stable economic outlook [7][8] - The focus on domestic demand and expansionary fiscal policies is expected to stabilize the economy and counterbalance global demand declines [8] Industry Comparisons - The article recommends focusing on financial and stable sectors, highlighting the value of high dividend yields in banks, power, and highways [10] - It also identifies opportunities in technology manufacturing and energy transition, suggesting investments in electric equipment, new energy, and semiconductor sectors [10] - The article notes that policies aimed at stabilizing investment and rising inflation are likely to boost demand in construction and consumer goods sectors [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply disruptions combined with accelerated energy transition are driving lithium prices upward, with lithium carbonate futures rising by 11.3% to 164,000 CNY/ton [8]. - Gold is showing resilience despite geopolitical tensions, indicating a potential return to its safe-haven status if conflicts escalate further [1]. - The copper market is experiencing unexpected inventory reductions, with global exchange copper inventories decreasing by 147,000 tons [2]. - The aluminum market is facing significant price volatility due to ongoing geopolitical issues, although domestic demand is expected to improve as the market transitions into a consumption peak [3]. - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with SHFE nickel prices rising by 3.0% to 137,100 CNY/ton [4]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold is showing strong resilience despite recent price adjustments, with potential for upward movement if geopolitical tensions escalate [1]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Xinyi Silver and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventory reductions are exceeding expectations, with a notable decrease in SHFE and social inventories [2]. - The aluminum supply remains stable, with a slight increase in production capacity, while demand is expected to rise as the market approaches peak consumption [3]. - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with production challenges affecting smaller manufacturers [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are on the rise due to supply disruptions and increased demand from the energy transition, with significant price increases noted [8]. - Cobalt prices are experiencing fluctuations due to weak downstream purchasing, with domestic electrolytic cobalt prices dropping by 0.5% to 426,000 CNY/ton [9]. Key Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Molybdenum, all of which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [10].

New Consumption - Multiple Hong Kong consumer companies reported impressive annual results, with expectations for increased travel due to spring break policies [2][7] - Pop Mart plans to launch several co-branded products and enter the small home appliance market, enhancing its brand influence through IP operations [8][16] - The gaming industry shows strong performance, with Macau's visitor numbers expected to rise 15% to 40.1 million in 2025, leading to excellent results for major gaming companies [9] Medical Devices - China's medical device market is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2030, with significant growth potential in the medical consumables sector [19] - The global medical device market reached $47.94 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to $63.80 billion by 2028, indicating robust demand [19] - The high-value medical consumables market in China is expected to grow from 60.2 billion yuan in 2015 to 250.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.2% [19] Automotive - China's heavy truck exports to the Middle East are expected to exceed 50,000 units in 2025, with significant contributions from Saudi Arabia and the UAE [31][32] - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is anticipated to boost demand for inland transportation, benefiting heavy truck exports [31] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have experienced significant volatility, with gold prices dropping 10.71% to $4,504.15 per ounce recently [23][24] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates are influencing market dynamics, with expectations for prolonged high rates [24][26] - Long-term demand for gold remains strong due to macroeconomic uncertainties and central bank purchases, reinforcing its value as a hedge against credit risk [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [53]. Core Insights - Precious Metals - Gold: Liquidity shocks are gradually easing, stabilizing gold prices. As of March 27, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4489.7 per ounce, a slight decrease of 0.05% month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.9% decrease to 1053 tons. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is intensifying, but the decline in gold prices is slowing down. It is anticipated that as market expectations regarding the Middle East situation converge, liquidity shocks in the gold market will further ease. In the medium term, geopolitical issues will elevate inflation expectations abroad, deepen U.S. fiscal problems, and weaken the dollar's credit status, maintaining the long-term pricing framework for gold. The report remains optimistic about the medium to long-term trend of gold prices [4]. - Industrial Metals: Geopolitical disturbances are intensifying, leading to volatile performance in industrial metals. As of March 27, the SHFE copper futures contract rose by 1.26% to 95930 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 427,400 tons as of March 26, while LME copper inventory stood at 360,000 tons. The global copper resource bottleneck is expected to persist. With the Middle East situation escalating and interest rate hike expectations rising, industrial metals are under short-term pressure [5][6]. - Aluminum: As of March 27, the SHFE aluminum futures contract fell by 0.4% to 23935 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 1.349 million tons as of March 26, with a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons. The geopolitical situation has become the largest black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions of millions of tons and increasing smelting costs. The report notes that while supply and demand expectations are converging, macroeconomic impacts remain strong, leading to a decline in aluminum prices [6]. - Tin: As of March 27, the SHFE tin futures contract rose by 5.8% to 362,500 yuan per ton. Domestic social inventory reached 9,102 tons, while LME tin inventory was 8,720 tons. The demand side is expected to benefit from the growth in tin consumption due to the expansion of AI technology. However, short-term market sentiment is heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, necessitating further clarity on the geopolitical situation [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are stabilizing as liquidity shocks ease, with a current price of $4489.7 per ounce and a slight decrease in ETF holdings [4]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased by 1.26% to 95930 yuan per ton, with ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical pressures affecting performance [6]. - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.4% to 23935 yuan per ton, with geopolitical tensions impacting supply and demand dynamics [6]. - Tin prices rose by 5.8% to 362,500 yuan per ton, with demand expected to grow due to AI technology [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, it recommends关注赤峰黄金; for copper,关注洛阳钼业; and for aluminum,关注天山铝业, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and demand recovery as key factors [7][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The geopolitical situation remains tense, with safe-haven and stagflation trading continuing to be the core of gold trading. In the short term, the Middle East situation combined with fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts presents a pattern of easy rises and difficult declines. In the medium to long term, the uncertainty surrounding global tariff policies and geopolitical factors continues to support the long-term allocation value of gold [10][11] - For industrial metals, the report indicates that the supply of electrolytic copper is decreasing, while geopolitical disturbances are affecting the supply of electrolytic aluminum. Short-term copper prices are supported by a tight fundamental backdrop, while long-term expectations are bolstered by strong demand from the new energy sector [13][14] - In the new energy metals sector, concerns over tightening overseas raw material supplies are impacting supply, while the export of new energy vehicles is boosting demand expectations. Lithium prices are expected to continue rising if the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors maintain high growth [19][22] - The rare earth market is experiencing weak stability, with prices showing limited fluctuations but some products continuing a downward trend due to weak demand [23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The geopolitical situation is affecting gold trading, with a focus on safe-haven investments. Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [12][10] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and geopolitical tensions. Key stocks include Zijin, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper [14][18] New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rising due to supply concerns from Zimbabwe and strong demand from new energy vehicle exports. Key stocks include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianhua, and Yahua Chemical [19][22] Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is experiencing weak demand, leading to price pressures. Key stocks include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten [23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][7] Core Insights - The precious metals sector has experienced significant price corrections, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply due to various factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [4][6][7] - The market dynamics have shifted from a focus on potential interest rate cuts to a more complex interplay of high interest rates, geopolitical risks, and trade policy uncertainties, which supports gold as a hedge against inflation and economic downturns [7] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - In the past two weeks, London spot gold fell by 10.71% to $4504.15 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price dropped by 11.86% to ¥998.66 per gram. Silver prices also saw declines, with London spot silver down 19.00% to $67.80 per ounce [6][11][15] 2. U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating uncertainty regarding the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the U.S. economy. Market expectations have shifted towards potential interest rate hikes rather than cuts [6][7] 3. Positioning and Trading Volume - The trading volume for Shanghai gold decreased by 12.56% to 273,700 contracts, while silver trading volume fell by 6.25% to 452,700 contracts [11][15] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The domestic gold price difference was -6.39 yuan per gram, a decrease of 24.96 yuan from two weeks prior. The silver price difference was 1979.60 yuan per kilogram, down 1051.30 yuan [61] 5. Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest report, the international gold basis was -$17.15 per ounce, a decrease of $38.65 from two weeks ago, while the domestic gold basis was -6.21 yuan per gram, down 4.46 yuan [70][71]

Core Viewpoint - The current market focus is on geopolitical tensions and oil prices, but the actual market performance suggests a different direction, with a strong emphasis on AI hardware, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and minor metals leading into 2025 [3] Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The strongest trends in 2025 will be seen in AI hardware, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and minor metals, particularly from Q2 to Q3, with a focus on products closely related to computing power [3] - By Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, price increases will drive market strength, with significant price hikes in AI hardware components like optical fibers, storage, and M9 materials, leading to a bullish market [3] - The latter part of the period will see a shift in market dynamics, with a higher emphasis on price increases and a weakening of overarching narratives, indicating a potential retreat of major themes [3] Group 2: Emerging Themes and Opportunities - The market is currently in a phase of waiting for new main themes to emerge, as old themes have faded, with a focus on sectors like consumer healthcare that are showing positive marginal improvements [4] - Two leading themes in consumer healthcare, one related to a weight-loss probiotic and another concerning a drug in clinical trials, suggest that consumer healthcare may become a new main theme [4] - Historical patterns indicate that strong themes often emerge before new main themes or during the retreat of existing ones, with current themes potentially setting the stage for consumer healthcare to take the lead [4] Group 3: Market Behavior and Sentiment - If the market fails to identify a new main theme, it may experience chaotic behavior, oscillating between various sectors without clear direction [5] - The contrast between the market's performance in consumer healthcare and the focus on geopolitical issues raises questions about the potential for consumer healthcare to be the main theme in 2026 [5] - The ambiguity of the main theme's emergence requires participants to make strategic choices, as being correct in research is less critical than making the right decisions in positioning [6]