受大宗商品巨幅波动引发的紧张情绪推动，昨夜今晨，美股三大指数集体收跌。 截至收盘，标普500指数跌0.35%，报6905.74点；纳斯达克综合指数跌0.5%，报23474.35点；道琼斯工业平均指数跌0.51%，报48461.93点。 （标普500指数日线图，来源：TradingView） 本周也是经济日程相当清淡的一周，投资者将在周二（北京时间周三凌晨）迎来美联储12月会议纪要，下一个重要日程就是迎接元旦假期的到来。 作为日内全球市场的焦点，这一轮金属上涨狂潮的"带头大哥"白银日内巨震，Comex白银期货创出每盎司82美元新高后跳水至71.6美元，黄金、铂金、钯金 等品种也携手下挫。矿业板块集体下跌，First Majestic Silver跌4.13%、纽曼矿业跌5.64%，锂矿巨头美国雅宝也跌3.62%。 | < W | COMEX白银 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SI.CMX | | | | | | 71.640 | | 昨结 | 77.196 总手 | | | | -5.556 | -7.20% 开盘 | | 80.000 ...

今日A股小幅震荡，上证指数微涨0.04%，收于3965.28点，截至今日已录得九连阳；深证成指下跌0.49%，收于 13537.10点。两市成交维持2.15万亿元的高位，整体上跌多涨少。临近年末市场热点趋于分散，石油、军工板 块表现相对较好。四季度以来市场经历短暂调整后恢复上行，长期来看推动本轮行情的积极因素尚未出现变 化，明年的慢牛行情依然可期。 养殖板块今日温和上涨。生猪方面，随着"政策端强力去化"+"市场端亏损去化"的双重叠加，生猪供应将出现 实质性收缩，猪价有望开启震荡上行通道。黄鸡方面，随着消费季节性提升，价格或已筑底完成，且行业亏损 之下供给端可能进一步收缩。蛋鸡行业受海外引种受限（禽流感、航班等问题）的滞后影响，2026年上游祖代 种鸡的缺口将逐步传导至商品代，鸡苗和毛鸡价格中枢有望抬升，龙头企业凭借高市占率有望释放业绩弹性。 成本端，全球粮食供应相对宽松，玉米、豆粕等饲料原料价格大概率维持低位震荡，对养殖业利润形成支撑。 总体而言，经历过2024、2025年的震荡磨底及产能去化后，2026年养殖业有望迎来利润与估值的同时修复，感 兴趣的投资者可以关注养殖ETF(159865)。 //// // ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to record highs, surpassing $80 per ounce for the first time, driven by speculative trading and supply shortages, with a notable increase of 165% year-to-date [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - Silver reached an all-time high of $84 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline, highlighting the volatility driven by profit-taking among speculative investors [1]. - The recent six-day rally in silver prices has resulted in a cumulative increase of approximately 25%, marking the largest six-day gain since 1950 [1]. - The price of silver has been influenced by significant inflows of speculative funds and a supply mismatch in global commodity markets [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The silver market has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with physical inventories rapidly depleting, leading to a supply squeeze [7]. - In 2025, global silver demand is projected to reach 1.24 billion ounces, while supply is expected to be only 1.01 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 250 million ounces [7]. - The primary reason for the supply constraints is the rigid nature of global mining supply, as silver is often a byproduct of copper and zinc mining, and new mines take over a decade to develop [7]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Future Projections - Analysts suggest that the current surge in silver prices is driven by macroeconomic factors, including expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, tight supply conditions, and strong industrial demand narratives [8]. - The World Silver Association highlights that the growth in demand for silver is supported by trends in AI data centers, electrification, and the transition to electric vehicles, with significant growth rates projected for these sectors [8][9]. - Some analysts predict that silver could reach $100 per ounce, driven by ongoing industrial demand and investment flows, with expectations of continued price increases until at least 2026 [10].

Core Viewpoint - Silver is emerging as a strong contender for the best asset of 2025, with a remarkable price increase of over 170% this year, significantly outperforming gold, which has risen by approximately 70% [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Industrial demand has become the primary driver of silver pricing, with its share of total demand rising from about 40% a few years ago to 60%-62% currently, indicating a shift towards its commodity attributes over financial and decorative uses [3]. - The global silver market is facing a severe structural deficit, with a projected demand of 34,700 tons in 2025 against a supply of only 31,800 tons, resulting in a supply gap of nearly 3,000 tons [3]. - Over the past five years, the cumulative deficit in the global silver market has reached approximately 800 million ounces, equivalent to nearly a full year’s production from global mines [3]. Inventory and Market Conditions - Silver inventories at major exchanges have been rapidly depleting, with the New York Stock Exchange's inventory down by 70% and London vaults down by 40% since 2020 [3]. - Current consumption rates suggest that available silver inventories in some regions can only sustain demand for 30 to 45 days, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's inventory falling below the critical threshold of 519 tons [4]. Emerging Industries Driving Demand - The photovoltaic industry is a major consumer of silver, with its share of global silver demand rising from 8% in 2019 to 17% in 2024, driven by a surge in solar panel installations [5]. - The demand for silver in AI and electric vehicles is also increasing, with AI server chip packaging requiring significantly more silver and electric vehicles using 25-50 grams of silver, which is seven times more than traditional gasoline vehicles [6]. - Silver is becoming integral to the modern economy, transitioning from a precious metal to a strategic industrial metal, reflecting the urgent demand for key materials in the global shift towards clean energy [6].

在美联储降息预期、各国央行加大贵金属储备，以及市场上投资性资金大量涌入的背景之下，2025年包 括黄金、白银在内的贵金属价格有望创出本世纪以来最大年度涨幅。 如果将金、银、铂、钯视为单纯 的投资品种，从年内价格变动的情况来看，2025年以来金、银、铂、钯等贵金属的价格涨幅远超同期 铜、铝等基本金属的价格涨幅，也明显超过同期美股市场道琼斯工业指数，以及同期A股市场上证指数 涨幅。贵金属已成为2025年以来回报率最高的大类投资品种之一，2025年俨然成为贵金属的投资"大 年"。 黄金：多种因素助推 金价或创下最近46年来最大年度涨幅 2025年的黄金显然迎来了投资"大年"。 行情数据显示，截至目前，伦敦金现货价格已突破4500美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅已超过70%。 数据显 示，上一次伦敦金年度涨幅超过70%还是46年前的1979年，当年伦敦金现货价格涨幅超过100%。由于 2025年仅剩下几天，这意味着，2025全年黄金价格将大概率创出本世纪以来最大年度涨幅，并将大概率 创出最近46年来最大年度涨幅。 2025年以来金价的大幅上行受到多种因素助推，其中美联储的降息动 作，以及进一步降息的预期是其中一项重要原因。截 ...

贵金属再次全面爆发。 周五黄金、白银和铂金均创历史新高, 沪铜史上首次突破10万元人民币关口, 纽铜 超越了今年7月史无前例的逼空行情期间所创盘中最高纪录。 黄金现货大涨逾1%，盘中刷新历史高点至4550美元上方，现货白银站上79美元关口，COMEX铜期货涨5.01%。夜盘期货同样强势，沪银夜盘涨超6%，首次 收于19000元关口上方。 （金银铜铂金飙升） 铂族金属同样表现惊人。现货铂金大涨10%至每盎司2459.5美元，创历史新高，全年涨幅超170%，是自1990年有伦敦基准价以来最大年度涨幅；钯金也涨逾 11%至每盎司1925美元，全年涨幅已超111%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 2459.50 | 231.50 | 10.39% | 172.07% | | 现货把金(美元/盎司) | 1925.00 | 201.50 | 11.69% | 111.89% | | NYMEX铂 | 2513.9d | 266.1 | 11.84% | 176.13% | | NYMEX钥ู | ...

白银、铂金、钯金昨夜均大涨超10%。 当地时间周五（12月26日），美国三大股指小幅收跌，其中，道琼斯工业指数跌0.04%，标普500指数跌0.03%，纳斯 达克综合指数跌0.09%。本周，道琼斯工业指数累涨1.2%，标普500指数累涨1.4%，纳斯达克综合指数累涨1.22%。 大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌超2%，脸书跌0.64%，谷歌A跌0.18%，苹果跌0.15%，微软跌0.06%，亚马逊涨 0.06%，英伟达涨逾1%。 中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.71%，万得中概科技龙头指数涨1.23%。热门中概股方面，小鹏汽车涨超 6%，叮咚买菜涨逾5%，蔚来涨超4%，理想汽车涨逾3%，希尔威金属矿业涨逾3%；脑再生跌近14%，比特小鹿跌逾 6%，小马智行跌超4% ，霸王茶姬跌逾2%。 值得一提的是，贵金属方面，COMEX白银期货涨11.15%，现货白银涨10.24%，续创历史新高；NYMEX铂收涨 11.84%，创历史新高；NYMEX钯收涨14.04%。此外，COMEX黄金期货涨1.31%，现货黄金涨1.12%，亦创历史新 高。 今年全球并购规模跃升至4.5万亿美元 12月26日，伦敦证券交易所集团（ ...

北京时间27日凌晨，美股三大指数微幅收跌，标普500指数盘中创新高。 全球市场方面，国内商品期市夜盘基本金属多数收涨，沪铜主力合约涨3.33%，突破10万元/吨，续创历 史新高；国际铜涨近3%。沪锡盘中涨逾3%，逼近350000元/吨，刷新近4年新高。氧化铝涨2.29%，沪 铅涨1.33%，沪镍涨1.06%。 贵金属表现强势，现货白银持续拉升，突破79美元/盎司续创新高，涨幅超10%。伦敦金现、COMEX黄 金均涨逾1%。现货钯金涨幅扩大至15%。 | 图 ◎ >> 20 量0 增0 振10.71% | | 伦敦银现 | | SPTAGUSDOZ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -2025/12/26(88日)▼ | | 79.285 | | +7.475 +10.41% | | | 79.319-> | 80.0 | IDC USD 5:35:07 | 79.318 | | 6 | | | | | 79.285 | | | | 71.0 | | 总量 | 0 现手 | | | | | | 结算价 | 开盘 | | 71.810 | | | | 最高 | ...

2025.12.26 本文字数：1430，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |一财阿驴 11:31 A股午盘丨沪指午前小幅跳水半日跌0.19% 截至午盘，沪指跌0.19%，深成指涨0.17%，创业板指跌0.15%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 7 | 3952.09 | -7.53 | -0.19% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | হ | 13554.07 | 22.66 | 0.17% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | W | 3234.63 | -4.72 | -0.15% | 盘面上，AI产业链集体回调，CPO、液冷、高速铜概念跌幅居前，机器人、光刻机等科技类题材普遍休 整；锂电池产业链逆势爆发，有色行业集体加速，洛阳钼业、紫金矿业双双历史新高，商业航天概念开 始分化。 | 板块名称 | 涨幅号 | 涨速 | 张停数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海南自贸区 | +3.83% | +0.48% | 4 | | 海南 | ...

【长江现货金属点评：宏观暖风与供应焦虑共舞，铜镍锡领涨】 截至2025年12月26日午前，长江现货基本金属在宏观情绪与产业逻辑共振下全线飘红，但内部分化显 著。其中，铜、镍、锡在供应端故事与需求预期驱动下涨幅居前，铝、铅、锌则受制于各自基本面，涨 幅相对温和。市场交易主线正从单纯的需求担忧，转向对远期供应安全与成本支撑的再定价。（以下数 据来自长江有色金属网） 铜价强势拉升：长江现货1#铜均价报98,030元/吨，单日大涨2,960元，表现最为强势。核心驱动在于宏 观氛围转暖（美元走弱、人民币升值）与市场对全球主要矿山供应干扰的担忧加剧。尽管国内现货采购 仍显谨慎，但低库存背景下，对未来供需缺口的强烈预期推动价格强势突破。镍价大幅跟涨：长江现货 1#镍均价报131,600元/吨，上涨4,250元。其涨势受新能源需求韧性与印尼产业政策不确定性的双重提 振。市场对高品位镍资源结构性紧张的预期持续发酵，资金关注度显著提升，推动价格弹性放大。锡价 延续高位运行：长江现货1#锡均价报334,000元/吨，上涨1,750元。供应刚性约束是其主要故事，缅甸、 印尼等地原料问题持续，而AI服务器、光伏焊带等新兴需求提供了坚实 ...