投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-12 一、 宏观数据速览 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 15 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 综合 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | ...

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The Shanghai Stock Exchange companies are expected to show resilience in operations and structural highlights for 2025, with 271 companies issuing positive earnings forecasts, including 168 expecting profit increases and 85 turning losses into profits [1] - Nearly 60% of the 391 companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reported year-on-year net profit growth, with 39 companies expecting over 100% profit growth and 51 companies turning profitable [1] Group 2: Nonferrous Metals Industry - Leading companies in the nonferrous metals sector are experiencing "volume-price resonance," with increased production and rising prices for gold, copper, cobalt, and lithium significantly boosting profits [2] - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. anticipates a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 20 to 20.8 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 47.80% to 53.71% year-on-year, following a recent acquisition of a Brazilian gold mine [2] Group 3: Cobalt and Lithium Industry - Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. forecasts a significant profit increase for 2025, driven by integrated operations, rising prices of cobalt and lithium, and management reforms, with expected net profits between 5.85 billion and 6.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 40.80% to 55.24% [3] Group 4: Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is showing strong growth driven by AI demand, with companies like Huqin Technology Co., Ltd. projecting revenues of 170 to 171.5 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.7% to 56.1%, and net profits of 4 to 4.05 billion yuan, up 36.7% to 38.4% [3] - Guangdong Shengyi Technology Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 3.25 to 3.45 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 87% to 98%, supported by rising sales and improved product structure [4] - Rockchip Electronics Co., Ltd. anticipates revenues of 4.387 to 4.427 billion yuan for 2025, with net profits projected to grow by 71.97% to 85.42% [4]

贵金属价格波动加剧成为近期市场焦点。2月9日有报道指出，金银价格波动主要受海外宏观政策预期和 资金交易行为驱动，白银流动性偏紧及指数再平衡操作放大波动。这一环境可能间接影响麦克莫兰铜金 等矿业股。此外，2月7日中国驻刚果(金)使馆发布安全提醒，强调不得参与非法采矿活动，但该事件对 FCX直接影响有限，因公司主要运营位于印尼和美国。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 2月5日股价下跌4.27%至59.22美元，成交额达13.23亿美元；2月6日反弹2.45%至60.67美元，成交额 12.18亿美元；2月9日大幅上涨4.85%至63.61美元，成交额9.35亿美元；2月10日微跌0.55%至63.26美 元，成交额7.33亿美元。 近期事件 经济观察网麦克莫兰铜金(FCX.N)近7天股价波动显著，区间振幅达9.60%，反映短期市场博弈加剧。同 期，铜板块整体下跌2.77%，美股大盘指数涨跌互现。 股票近期走势 ...

公司项目推进 经济观察网 寒锐钴业（300618）股价随钴概念板块上涨，主要受印尼镍供应收紧提振镍价、公司印尼 项目受益及产业链联动效应等因素影响。 股票近期走势 寒锐钴业股价在2026年2月11日随钴概念板块上涨，板块当日涨2.51%。 行业政策与环境 印尼能源与矿产资源部确认将2026年镍矿石生产配额大幅削减至2.6亿—2.7亿吨，较2025年的3.79亿吨 缩减约34%。全球最大镍矿Weda Bay Nickel的配额更从4200万吨骤降至1200万吨，引发伦敦金属交易所 镍价连续上涨，2月11日盘中涨幅达2.6%。镍价走强对布局镍资源的寒锐钴业形成成本支撑与业绩改善 预期。 寒锐钴业在印尼建设的"年产2万吨镍金属量高冰镍项目"计划于2026年3月底投产。该项目采用富氧侧吹 工艺，预计电解镍成本低于1.3万美元/吨，在印尼供应收缩背景下，低成本产能有望直接受益于镍价上 涨带来的利润空间扩张。 产业链状况 寒锐钴业主营业务为钴粉、电解铜等产品，但通过印尼项目切入镍产业链，形成"钴-铜-镍"多元布局。 镍价上涨通常与钴价产生共振，公司凭借一体化产业链可平滑单一金属价格波动风险。2025年三季度公 司营收同比 ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，有色金属板块重点公司25Q4业绩增速不一。贵金属板块当 前估值处于历史中枢下沿，板块具备持续修复的动力及空间。铜供给相对刚性，价格中枢有望持续抬 高;铝供需格局持续趋紧，价格有望延续长期上行趋势。小金属方面，镍价中枢有望上行，锂价中枢稳 中有升，而钴价预计维持强势。降息后有色金属板块估值中枢有望上移，推荐供需格局稳定的新能源制 造业。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 铜：中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫在新闻发布会上表示，除了储备精炼铜之外，也可研究将贸 易量大、容易变现的铜精矿纳入储备范围，同时，将扩大国家铜战略储备规模，探索进行商业储备机 制，通过财政贴息等方式选择国有骨干企业试行商业储备。短期铜矿生产扰动较大、非美库存紧张下预 计铜价偏强，基本面支撑扎实，长期电网投资增长、AI数据中心增长等，叠加铜供给相对刚性，价格 中枢有望持续抬高，建议关注紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、铜陵有色、金诚信、西部矿业、河钢资源。铝：国 内产能天花板限制下供需格局持续趋紧，铝价有望延续长期上行趋势，建议关注一体化完备标的(南山 铝业、天山铝业、中国宏桥、中国铝业、新疆众和)、以及弹性标的(云铝股份、 ...

证券代码：601899 证券简称：紫金矿业 编号：临2026-012 紫金矿业集团股份有限公司 关于三年（2026-2028年）主要矿产品产量规划 和2035年远景目标纲要的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 2026年2月8日，紫金矿业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）召开第九届董事会2026年第4次临时 会议，会议审议通过《公司三年（2026-2028年）主要矿产品产量规划和2035年远景目标纲要》，明确 未来三年主要矿产品产量规划指标，并提出至2035年全面建成"绿色高技术超一流国际矿业集团"的远景 目标。 ● 本公告所涉未来规划、发展目标等前瞻性陈述，不构成公司盈利预测，亦不构成对投资者的实质性承 诺，其能否实现取决于宏观经济形势、政策环境、产品市场价格、项目建设进度、运营管理及投资并购 等多种因素，存在不确定性。鉴于市场环境复杂多变，公司或将根据发展需要对此作出相应调整，敬请 广大投资者注意投资风险。 一、编制背景 2023-2025年，面对全球政治经济和社会环境深刻变革， ...

Core Insights - The global metal market has shown remarkable performance in 2025, with silver rising by 154%, gold by 67.4%, and copper by 41.7%, indicating a significant shift in pricing dynamics influenced by "resource nationalism" and strong market expectations [1][5] - The volatility in the market is part of the pricing process, with the geopolitical landscape extending from advanced technologies like AI chips to critical metal assets, suggesting that the metal market may experience a more pronounced premium trend due to global order restructuring [5][6] Market Dynamics - The current era of increased market volatility amplifies both risks and opportunities, prompting the need for individuals to identify stable returns and safety nets [6] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman on January 30, 2026, led to a sharp liquidity contraction, causing silver prices to plummet by 30% within two trading days, highlighting the harsh realities of mean reversion in a liquidity crisis [7] Expert Analysis - Chen Dapeng, founder of KP Research and a prominent figure in the financial community, emphasizes the importance of deep industry understanding over mere modeling in commodity research, leveraging his extensive experience in mining and finance to provide insights into market dynamics [9][17] - Chen's analyses in 2025 gained significant recognition, leading to invitations to major financial events, where he was acknowledged as one of the most popular speakers [9][17] Course Overview - The upcoming course will cover five core modules, including the evolution of global resource pricing paradigms from "efficiency" to "security," the transformation of precious metal pricing power, and new paradigms for non-ferrous metal pricing influenced by resource nationalism [10][12][14] - Participants will learn to construct a framework for analyzing macroeconomic and geopolitical factors affecting resource nationalism and investment strategies in key metals [19][20]

紫金矿业大幅上调未来黄金产量目标。在金价持续高位运行背景下，计划三年内将矿产金产量提升至130至140吨，较此前规划目标上调近三成。这一调整凸 显公司对市场前景的信心，以及加速释放黄金产能的战略意图。 据公司2月9日发布的公告，紫金矿业董事会审议通过三年（2026-2028年）主要矿产品产量规划，将2028年矿产金目标从此前2024年设定的100至110吨上调 至130至140吨。同时，矿产铜、矿产银产量目标保持不变，分别为150至160万吨和600至700吨。 产量目标上调建立在公司业绩快速增长的基础上。根据初步核算数据，紫金矿业2025年营业收入约3450亿元，较2022年增长约28%；利润总额约800亿元， 增长约167%；归母净利润约510至520亿元，增长约155%至160%。 消息公布后，紫金矿业股价当日上涨4.1%至40.72港元。 公司在公告中表示，将"加大战略性矿产资源获取力度，以金、铜为重点发展矿种"，境内深耕西部重点区域，境外重点关注与中国陆路接壤国家以及其他市 场、法治环境良好的友好国家。 金、锂、钼产能目标上调 紫金矿业此次规划调整幅度显著。根据公告，2026年矿产金产量目标为105 ...

锡价惊涛翻覆涌，节前V转破苍穹；单日暴涨万六整，期现联动引群雄。据长江有色金属网获悉，今日 长江现货市场 1# 锡报价371100-374100 元 / 吨，均价372600 元 / 吨，较前一交易日单日暴涨 16000 元， 成为春节前金属市场最具争议的突发热点。此前 2 月 6 日锡价还创下单日暴跌超 5% 的纪录，短短 3 个 交易日上演极致 V 型反转，叠加美元走势、美股行情及节前资金博弈，锡市成为资本市场焦点。本文 结合 2026 年 2 月 9 日最新宏观要闻、供需格局及产业链现状，拆解锡价暴涨核心逻辑，梳理节前金属 行情操作思路并给出短期走势预判。 宏观共振托底！内外双因素引爆锡价单日大涨 锡价对全球宏观环境高度敏感，2月9日内外宏观共振形成多重利好，成为其单日暴涨的核心推手。外盘 方面，美元指数跌0.36%报97.61，大宗商品计价受益，美股三大指数集体大涨、道指站上50000点创新 高，叠加美联储副主席释放积极信号、降息预期未被证伪，全球风险偏好回升；内盘方面，A股资金向 有色金属赛道切换，锡作为稀缺金属成抄底重点，叠加我国外汇、黄金储备持续增长、人民币汇率稳 健，以及工信部算力政策加持下游 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that major metals like gold, silver, and copper will enter a consolidation phase in the coming weeks after significant price increases [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent decline in gold prices is characterized as a technical reversal rather than a long-term bearish trend, suggesting that the bull market is still intact but requires a pause [3][4]. - Gold's previous price surge exhibited a parabolic pattern, which typically faces momentum exhaustion, with $5000 and the $5100–$5150 range acting as significant short-term resistance levels [5]. - The core logic supporting the gold bull market remains intact, primarily driven by the weakness of the US dollar, which is expected to stay below 100, indicating ongoing risks of currency devaluation [6]. Group 2: Copper and Economic Expectations - Copper prices have recently slowed above $14,000, raising questions about whether the price increase is detached from fundamental realities, as current manufacturing PMI is around 50.5, while copper prices imply a PMI of approximately 53 [10]. - The analysis suggests that the optimism surrounding copper is not isolated but reflects a broader bet on economic recovery across cyclical assets, including semiconductor stocks [11]. - In the upcoming consolidation phase, basic metals like copper are expected to receive more support than precious metals due to the dual influence of manufacturing recovery and cyclical rotation, while gold faces profit-taking pressures [12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes that during the consolidation phase, the focus should be on market rhythm rather than direction, with the metaphor of a paused dance indicating that while the metal frenzy may slow, it is not over [13][14]. - Investors are encouraged to reassess their positions rather than exit the market entirely, as true trends often require consolidation to solidify their foundations [15].