Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [2] - Silver: Neutral [2] - Copper: Neutral [2] - Zinc: Neutral [2] - Lead: Neutral [2] - Tin: Neutral [2] - Aluminum: Bullish [2] - Alumina: Bearish [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Bullish [2] - Platinum: Neutral [2] - Palladium: Neutral [2] - Nickel: Neutral [2] - Stainless Steel: Neutral [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Neutral [2] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Iron Ore: Bearish [2] - Rebar: Bearish [2] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Bearish [2] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral [2] - Silicomanganese: Neutral [2] - Coke: Neutral [2] - Coking Coal: Neutral [2] - Steam Coal: Bearish [2] - Logs: Bearish [2] - Paraxylene: Bearish [2] - PTA: Bearish [2] - MEG: Neutral [2] - Rubber: Bearish [2] - Synthetic Rubber: Neutral [2] - LLDPE: Bearish [2] - PP: Bearish [2] - Caustic Soda: Bearish [2] - Pulp: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Methanol: Neutral [2] - Urea: Neutral [2] - Styrene: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish [2] - LPG: Neutral [2] - Propylene: Neutral [2] - PVC: Bearish [2] - Fuel Oil: Neutral [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Neutral [2] - Container Freight Index (European Line): Neutral [2] - Staple Fiber: Neutral [2] - Bottle Chip: Neutral [2] - Offset Printing Paper: Bearish [2] - Pure Benzene: Neutral [2] - Palm Oil: Neutral [2] - Soybean Oil: Neutral [2] - Soybean Meal: Neutral [2] - Soybean: Neutral [2] - Corn: Neutral [2] - Sugar: Bearish [2] - Cotton: Bullish [2] - Eggs: Neutral [2] - Hogs: Bearish [2] - Peanuts: Neutral [2] Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market. It assesses the current situation of each commodity based on factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and macro - economic news, and gives corresponding investment ratings and trend intensities. For example, for gold, the rising risk - aversion sentiment is noted; for copper, the strengthening of LME spot and firm price are emphasized; for zinc, it is expected to trade in a range. Each commodity's analysis takes into account its unique fundamentals and market news [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have fluctuated. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts have decreased. ETF holdings have slightly changed, and inventories have different trends. Macro - economic news such as China's economic data and geopolitical issues may affect the price [6]. - **Silver**: The price is affected by tariff expectation fluctuations. Similar to gold, there are changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventories. The price of silver futures and spot shows certain volatility [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: LME spot has strengthened, and the price remains firm. The trading volume of domestic and international copper futures has decreased, and the open interest has changed slightly. The inventory of LME copper has increased, while that of SHFE copper has decreased. The premium of LME copper has increased. Macro - economic news and industry - related events such as Chile's copper mine plan and power grid investment may impact the price [10]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to trade in a range. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have declined, and the trading volume has decreased significantly. The inventory of LME zinc has decreased, and the premium has changed. China's economic data and EU - US trade issues are the influencing factors [13]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of LME lead has decreased significantly [16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The price of domestic tin futures has decreased, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of SHFE tin has decreased, and the price of spot tin has declined [20]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. The price of domestic aluminum futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of LME aluminum has decreased. The cost of electrolytic aluminum production and the price of alumina are important factors [24]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to continue to decline. The price of domestic alumina futures has decreased, and the trading volume has decreased. The average price of domestic alumina has declined [24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Platinum**: It is expected to trade in a box - shaped range. The price of platinum futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly [28]. - **Palladium**: It follows the range - bound trend. The price of palladium futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly [28]. - **Nickel**: The repeated statements from Indonesia have disturbed market sentiment, and the nickel price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The price of domestic nickel futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. Indonesia's policies on nickel mining and production are the key influencing factors [32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is supported by the contradiction in the ore end and the increase in nickel - iron prices. The price of domestic stainless - steel futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream procurement has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of lithium carbonate futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has declined [37]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The upstream production cuts have disturbed the market, and the price of the futures has rebounded. The price of industrial silicon futures has increased, and the trading volume has increased. The inventory of industrial silicon has changed slightly [40]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the impact of market news. The price of polysilicon futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of polysilicon has increased [40]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to have a weak oscillation. The price of iron ore futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of imported iron ore has declined [43]. - **Rebar**: Affected by emergencies, the raw materials have dragged down the finished products. The price of rebar futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot rebar has declined [46]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, affected by emergencies and raw - material drag. The price of hot - rolled coil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot hot - rolled coil has declined [46]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The demand - side expectation is tightening, and it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The price of ferrosilicon futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot ferrosilicon has declined [50]. - **Silicomanganese**: Similar to ferrosilicon, with tightening demand - side expectation and wide - range fluctuations. The price of silicomanganese futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot silicomanganese has declined [50]. - **Coke**: Affected by downstream accidents, it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of coke futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot coke has remained stable [54]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of coking coal futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot coking coal has remained stable [54]. - **Steam Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price is expected to have a weak adjustment. The price of steam coal in various regions has declined [58]. - **Logs**: It is expected to have a weak oscillation. The price of log futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot logs has remained stable [60]. - **Paraxylene**: The cost is weak, and it is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market. The price of paraxylene futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot paraxylene has remained stable [64]. - **PTA**: Attention should be paid to reducing the processing fee. The price of PTA futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PTA has increased [64]. - **MEG**: The downward space of valuation is limited. The price of MEG futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of MEG in ports has decreased slightly [64]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of rubber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot rubber has declined [72]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to be in a short - term weak operation. The price of synthetic rubber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot synthetic rubber has declined [76]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products has increased, and the spot trading has weakened. The price of LLDPE futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot LLDPE has remained stable [79]. - **PP**: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong. The price of PP futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PP has declined [81]. - **Caustic Soda**: The downward trend still has pressure. The price of caustic soda futures has declined, and the price of spot caustic soda has declined [84]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of pulp futures has remained stable, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot pulp has remained stable [89]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of glass futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot glass has remained stable [94]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to oscillate. The price of methanol futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot methanol has declined [97]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate and consolidate. The price of urea futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot urea has remained stable [102]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The price of styrene futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot styrene has increased [106]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of soda ash futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soda ash has remained stable [108]. - **LPG**: The downward driving force is gradually being realized. The price of LPG futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot LPG has changed [113]. - **Propylene**: After the rapid increase in the spot price, the upward driving force has weakened. The price of propylene futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot propylene has remained stable [113]. - **PVC**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of PVC futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PVC has remained stable [120]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, and the short - term fluctuation will decrease. The price of fuel oil futures has remained stable, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot fuel oil has increased slightly [123]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has adjusted, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur spot in the overseas market is temporarily stable. The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot low - sulfur fuel oil has increased slightly [123]. Agricultural Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is expected to be in a temporary oscillation market. The price of the index futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The shipping capacity, geopolitical situation, and demand factors are the key influencing factors [125]. - **Staple Fiber**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market, and the processing fee is at a low level. The price of staple - fiber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot staple fiber has declined [142]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market. The price of bottle - chip futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot bottle chip has declined [142]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to close short positions opportunistically. The price of offset - printing - paper futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot offset printing paper has remained stable [145]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is expected to be mainly in a short - term oscillation. The price of pure - benzene futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot pure benzene has increased [150]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term negative factors are limited, and attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of production cuts. The price of palm - oil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot palm oil has remained stable [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The themes of US soybeans are insufficient, and the rebound height is limited. The price of soybean - oil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean oil has increased slightly [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the closure of the US soybean market overnight, the domestic soybean - meal futures followed the rapeseed - meal futures to correct. The price of soybean - meal futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean meal has declined [159]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating and adjusting. The price of soybean futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean has remained stable [159]. - **Corn**: The price has corrected. The price of corn futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot corn has declined [162]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to be sorted at a low level. The price of sugar futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot sugar has declined [165]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The price of cotton futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot cotton has declined [171]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment of the far - month contracts has weakened. The price of egg futures has declined, and the trading volume has changed. The price of spot eggs has increased [178]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has weakened, and the expectation of the peak season has decreased. The price of hog futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot hogs has declined [181]. - **Peanuts**: It is expected to oscillate. The price of peanut futures has increased, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot peanuts has remained stable [185].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in copper prices indicate a shift from a bullish trend to a more cautious outlook, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and adjustments in demand forecasts related to AI developments [1][2][3]. Macroeconomic Factors - Uncertainties in U.S. trade policies and fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are exerting pressure on copper prices [3]. - The recent lack of new tariffs on copper from the U.S. has diminished speculative demand, contributing to price corrections [3]. - The total open interest in Shanghai copper futures has decreased from approximately 690,000 contracts to around 627,000 contracts, indicating a reduction in bullish sentiment [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper inventories are at a five-year high, reflecting a slowdown in demand as higher prices have started to suppress consumption [4]. - The increase in COMEX copper inventories suggests potential risks in the market, leading to uneven global inventory distribution [4]. Impact of AI Demand Projections - A significant revision of copper demand estimates related to AI infrastructure by Nvidia has led to a reassessment of future copper demand, with the copper requirement for a traditional data center being corrected from 500,000 tons to 200 tons [5][6][7]. - This correction has prompted market participants to reevaluate the "AI copper shortage" narrative, contributing to a decline in copper prices [8]. Long-term Demand Outlook - Despite the short-term negative sentiment from Nvidia's data correction, the long-term demand for copper is expected to be supported by diverse factors, including AI-related infrastructure, electric vehicle charging stations, and renewable energy projects [9]. - The most significant turning point for copper prices in 2026 is anticipated to be influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly the potential cessation of interest rate cuts [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement. As of January 16, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,770 CNY/ton, down 0.63% from January 9, while LME copper closed at 12,803 USD/ton, down 1.50% [1] - The report highlights that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates in January 2026 [1] - The report anticipates that supply constraints and improving demand will lead to further increases in copper prices [4] Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.6% [2] - As of January 16, 2026, global inventory across the three major exchanges reached 900,000 tons, up 7.7% from January 9 [2] Supply - The TC spot price reached a historical low of -46.6 USD/ton [3] - Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [2] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 1,010 CNY/ton, indicating tighter scrap supply [2][55] Demand - The cable manufacturing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 55.99% [3] - The report notes that cable production accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [3] - Air conditioning production is projected to see a year-on-year increase of 11% in January 2026, followed by declines of 11.4% and 2.4% in February and March, respectively [3][95] Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 24% week-on-week, with a total of 226,000 contracts as of January 16, 2026 [4] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 7.6% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the copper market has cooled down. The copper price is expected to turn into a range - bound pattern to balance supply and demand in the short term, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 98,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 12,400 - 13,300 US dollars/ton. The copper market is affected by factors such as supply tightness, inventory changes, and downstream demand. [12] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to decline, and smelting revenue still relies on by - product sulfuric acid. The processing fee of crude copper remains high. There are labor strikes at the Canadian Capstone Mantoverde copper - gold mine, and Panama plans to decide on the future of the Cobre Panama copper mine by June. The copper production of Luoyang Molybdenum and Ivanhoe Mines in Q4 2025 met expectations. [11] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 846,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory of SHFE increased by 33,000 tons to 213,000 tons, LME increased by 6,000 tons to 144,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 19,000 tons to 489,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 106,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. [11] - Import and Export: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase, and the annual cumulative imports were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.0%, with the annual cumulative imports of 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. [11] - Demand: The copper price remains high, and downstream buyers purchase on dips. The expected increase in fixed - asset investment of the State Grid during the "15th Five - Year Plan" provides demand support. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rebounded, while that of cables declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread first widened and then narrowed, the substitution of scrap copper remained small, and the operating rate of scrap copper rods only slightly rebounded. [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The copper price rose first and then fell. The SHFE copper main contract fell 0.8% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 1.01% to 12,822.5 US dollars/ton. [18] - Spot Price: Details of spot prices of various copper products such as Yangtze River non - ferrous price, Guangdong Nanhai price, and prices of different copper materials are provided. [20] - Premiums and Discounts: The domestic copper spot basis weakened after the contract change, and on Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the futures. LME inventory increased, the cancelled warrant ratio decreased, and Cash/3M remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 61.5 US dollars/ton on Friday. The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. [25] - Market Structure: Relevant figures of SHFE and LME copper market structure are presented. [27] 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate declined to - 46.5 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue. [32] - Import - Export Ratio: Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only relevant figures are provided. [34] - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The spot import loss of copper first widened and then narrowed. [37] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 846,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 106,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. SHFE inventory increased, and the copper warrant quantity increased by 49,201 tons to 160,417 tons. LME inventory increased, mainly from Asian warehouses, and the cancelled warrant ratio decreased. [40][43][46] 4. Supply Side - Production: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper production in December 2025 increased by about 75,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in January 2026. According to NBS data, the domestic refined copper production in November 2025 was 1.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.80%. [50] - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase, and the annual cumulative imports were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.0%, with the annual cumulative imports of 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. Other import and export data of copper products such as anode copper, refined copper, and recycled copper are also provided. [53][56] 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: The global electrolytic copper consumption is mainly in power (46%), home appliances (15%), etc. In China, it is mainly in construction (26%), equipment (23%), etc. [72] - PMI: China's official manufacturing PMI in December 2025 strengthened slightly, and Caixin manufacturing PMI returned above the boom - bust line. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided, with improvement in Japan and the UK, and weakening in the euro area, the US, and India. [75] - Downstream Industry Output: In November 2025, the output of some downstream copper industries such as automobiles, freezers, and washing machines increased year - on - year, while that of air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. The cumulative output from January to November also showed different trends. [78] - Real Estate Data: In November 2025, domestic real estate data remained weak, with year - on - year declines in new construction, construction, sales, and completion, and the decline rates widened. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in November. [80] - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: The operating rates of different downstream copper enterprises such as copper rod, copper wire, and copper tube enterprises showed different trends in December 2025 and are expected to change in January 2026. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rebounded, the scrap copper rod operating rate slightly recovered, the cable operating rate continued to decline, and the copper strip operating rate slightly rebounded. [83][95][98] - Refined - Scrap Copper Price Spread: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread first widened and then narrowed, and the refined - scrap copper price spread on Friday was reported at 3,391 yuan/ton. [103] 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 76,102 to 1,287,180 lots (bilateral), with the near - month 2602 contract holding 125,612 lots (bilateral). [108] - Foreign Fund Positions: As of January 13, CFTC funds remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 16.4%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds slightly decreased (as of January 9). [111]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices experienced a slight decline, opening at $13,096.5 per ton and currently trading at $13,027 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.92% [1] - During the trading session, LME copper reached a high of $13,183 per ton and a low of $13,021 per ton [1] Group 2 - On January 15, LME copper futures opened at $13,233.0, with a closing price of $13,148.5, marking a decrease of 1.14% [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a copper warehouse receipt of 162,717 tons on January 15, an increase of 13,378 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 91,025 tons, with 50,100 tons being canceled, a reduction of 900 tons, and total copper inventory at 141,125 tons, down by 500 tons [2] - Domestic research involving 56 electrolytic copper trading enterprises indicated a transaction volume of 23,700 tons for electrolytic copper on the same day, an increase of 40 tons or 1.53% compared to the previous trading day [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - and medium - term, the supply - demand of tin ingots is expected to improve, and nickel and zinc have supply - related speculations. After a rapid price increase, profit - taking by funds led to an adjustment. However, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and supply - disruption concerns remains unchanged. Opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel at low prices should be watched for, and downstream industrial customers should pay attention to restocking opportunities during the adjustment. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply - disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist, leading to an expected tightening of supply - demand and a positive outlook for their prices [2]. - For each metal: - Copper: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and the copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly [3][7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and the alumina price is under pressure and expected to fluctuate [3][8]. - Aluminum: Inventory continues to accumulate, the aluminum price has declined, but in the short - term, it is expected to remain strong with fluctuations due to positive macro - expectations and a tight supply - demand outlook [3][12]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][14]. - Zinc: The LME has suspended the delivery of KZ and YP zinc, and the SHFE zinc price has broken through 25,000 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [3][17]. - Lead: Social inventory has significantly increased, limiting the upside potential of the lead price, and it is expected to fluctuate [3][22]. - Nickel: Policy expectations are in a game with the weak reality, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [3][23]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price continues to rise, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate [3][26]. - Tin: Supply remains in short - supply, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information analysis**: The US December CPI data was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0 dollars/ton. December SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on January 15 had a higher average premium than the previous trading day. A Chilean copper mine's union will start a strike, and the production of a mine in Ecuador has been postponed [7]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting the copper price. On the supply - demand side, copper - mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to supply constraints and increasing disruptions [8]. Alumina - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot prices of alumina in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, high - cost capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate due to an oversupply in reality and a low - range valuation [9]. Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SMM AOO average price and the premium/discount of aluminum decreased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum bars in major domestic consumption areas increased, and the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts also increased. The Q1 2026 aluminum - ingot premium in Japanese ports increased significantly, and the December 2025 export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the US interest - rate cut expectation and China's new - infrastructure policies are positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas new - project progress is uncertain. On the demand side, high prices have suppressed demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the price center is expected to rise [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the prices of some aluminum - alloy products decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. An Indonesian electrolytic - aluminum project has started production [14]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported by a tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is restricted by raw - material shortages and profit issues, and policies may also affect supply. The demand is mainly for刚需 in the short - term and is expected to improve marginally in the medium - term. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the warehouse - receipt inventory has increased. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - and medium - term, the aluminum - alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to cost support and a tight supply - demand balance [16]. Zinc - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot premiums of 0 zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventory decreased slightly. The LME has suspended the further delivery of certain zinc brands since January 14, 2026 [19]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is relatively stable. The zinc - ore supply is tight, and the smelter's profit has declined. The domestic zinc - ingot supply pressure is not significant in the short - term. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. In the short - term, the zinc price may remain high and fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline [20]. - **Outlook**: In January, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate as the production has increased slightly, the demand is in the off - season, but exports and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector support the price [21]. Lead - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the price of waste electric - vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of SMM1 lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. The LME has suspended the further delivery of a certain lead brand since January 14, 2026 [22]. - **Main logic**: The spot premium and the original - recycled lead price difference have increased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The supply has increased as some smelters have resumed production, and the demand is mixed, with a decline in electric - bicycle orders but an improvement in automobile - battery orders. Overall, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Outlook**: As the lead - ingot production recovers and the demand weakens marginally, but the waste - battery cost remains high, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. Nickel - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and the LME nickel inventory increased. An Indonesian nickel - mining company has fully resumed operations, and Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel - ore production quota in 2026. The SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [24]. - **Main logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure as domestic and Indonesian production remains high. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. The Indonesian nickel - ore quota is uncertain, and its actual implementation needs to be monitored [25]. - **Outlook**: In January, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate as the fundamentals are not significantly improved, but the Indonesian policy may affect the supply - demand balance [25]. Stainless Steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 15, the spot price of stainless steel in Foshan had a certain discount compared to the futures contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [26]. - **Main logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the increase in nickel - iron price. The production in December decreased, and there may be a slight increase in January. The terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level [26]. - **Outlook**: In January, the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate as the production may increase slightly, the demand is weak in the off - season, but the cost is supported [26]. Tin - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the SHFE tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [27]. - **Main logic**: The supply of tin is a major concern. Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are expected to limit production. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic situation and the growth of industries such as semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles. Overall, the tin price is expected to be strong [28]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain [28]. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial - product index of CITIC Futures all decreased. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.09% on the day, 2.13% in the past 5 days, 12.72% in the past month, and 6.27% since the beginning of the year [156][158].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Market - **Current Price Levels**: LME copper price exceeds $13,000 per ton, while domestic copper futures reach ¥105,000 per ton [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Drivers**: The recent surge in copper prices is driven by macroeconomic recovery expectations, supply-demand tightness, and low overseas inventories leading to short-covering behavior [1][3] - **Supply Constraints**: The copper mining supply is limited due to a defensive capital expenditure cycle, low willingness to develop new mines, and high production disruption rates [1][7] - **Demand from AI Investments**: Significant increases in copper demand are anticipated due to data center construction, with IEA predicting that the share of copper used in data centers will rise to about 2% by 2026 [1][8] - **2026 Market Outlook**: The copper market is expected to perform strongly in 2026, with a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 630,000 tons, driven by a 3% growth in global demand [2][4][9] Additional Important Content - **Impact of Social Inventory**: The influence of social inventory on copper prices has diminished, as it now reflects price changes rather than being a leading factor [1][5] - **US Tariffs on Copper**: The US has imposed tariffs on electrolytic copper as part of a strategy to enhance domestic resource production capabilities, which is expected to tighten non-US inventories and increase price elasticity [4][11] - **Trade Flow Effects**: The US's absorption of electrolytic copper is leading to low inventories and tight spot markets in non-US regions, making price spikes more likely [12] - **Recommended Companies**: Companies such as Minmetals Resources, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted for their potential strong performance in the equity market due to cost advantages and growth prospects [13][14] - **Focus on Smelting Enterprises**: Smelting companies are also worth monitoring due to their high recovery rates and potential profits from by-products, despite low processing fees [15]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement despite current demand pressures [4]. Supply and Demand - As of January 9, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 101,410 CNY/ton, up 3.23% from January 2, while LME copper closed at 12,998 USD/ton, up 4.31% [4]. - The TC spot price has hit a record low, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [4]. - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 14.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 2.5% [5]. - The copper supply from China in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. Inventory Levels - Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 640,000 tons as of January 9, 2026, down 0.8% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 838,000 tons, up 6.2% from December 31 [5]. Smelting and Processing - The TC spot price was -45.1 USD/ton as of January 9, 2026, marking a historical low [7]. - China's electrolytic copper production in December 2025 was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [7]. Demand Trends - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a weekly operating rate of 56.58%, down 2.37 percentage points [9]. - Air conditioning production, representing about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline by 11.4% in January to March 2026 [9]. Futures Market - As of January 9, 2026, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 12.8% week-on-week, with a total of 189,000 contracts [10]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were 58,000 contracts, down 3.3% from the previous week [10].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Short-term high prices suppress demand, but low LME inventories and mid-term demand are still valid. Copper prices are expected to oscillate to digest short-term selling pressure [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Mid-term supply and demand are promising. Short-term inventory accumulation concerns may cause prices to oscillate at high levels, but the mid-term upward trend remains unchanged [26]. - Aluminum: The aluminum market is still dominated by macro and capital sentiment. Aluminum prices still have short-term catch-up demand and are prone to rise rather than fall [43]. - Nickel: Driven by global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances, the operating center of nickel prices is expected to rise, but short-term attention should be paid to policy changes [79]. - Zinc: The zinc price has entered a high-level oscillation to digest the previous increase and wait for new directional guidance [105]. Summary by Directory Copper 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main contract reached a high of 105,500 and then fell below 100,000. LME copper also showed a similar trend. Overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long has declined recently [7]. - Supply is still at a high level, but demand is weak in the short term due to high prices. However, the market is generally optimistic about the future demand growth space of copper. LME low inventories support copper prices, and short-term spot pressure is limited. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Copper concentrate import TC continues to decline, and the supply of cold materials is abundant. SMM expects that the output of smelters in January will decrease by 14,500 tons month-on-month. The import window for refined copper is closed [7][10][13]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of downstream waste copper rods, refined copper rods, wire and cable, and enameled wire enterprises have all declined. However, after the short-term decline in copper prices, downstream orders have been released. The current decline in operating rates is mainly due to high prices rather than a substantial lack of demand [7]. - **Spot Side**: Domestic inventories have increased, and it is expected that the market will maintain a pattern of "loose supply and cautious consumption" next week, and inventories will continue to accumulate [16]. Lithium Carbonate 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the futures price of lithium carbonate rose, driving the spot price up. The rise in the first half of the week was due to supply concerns and capital enthusiasm, and the second half of the week was in high-level oscillation due to capital selling. The destocking process was interrupted this week [25]. - Supply growth is limited, and demand has not significantly stalled. Although the short-term inventory accumulation concerns are emerging, the mid-term supply and demand situation is good, and the mid-term upward trend remains unchanged [26]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 115 tons. It is expected that the output in January will decrease compared with December last year, and the growth of lithium mica output is restricted. The cost of producing lithium carbonate from raw materials has increased [26][30]. - **Demand Side**: The output of cathode materials has declined, but the orders in the energy storage field have increased month-on-month. The final business conditions of ternary materials are expected to be favorable to manufacturers, and some iron lithium plants are expected to resume production [26]. - **Spot Side**: The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the spot discount to the main contract has deepened. The destocking process has been interrupted, and short-term concerns are emerging [34][35]. Aluminum 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - At the beginning of 2026, aluminum prices rose sharply, and the import window was closed. Alumina and aluminum alloy also showed corresponding trends. Overseas speculative funds' enthusiasm for going long increased [40]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is gradually easing, and the price of alumina is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The short-term supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and high prices have suppressed downstream demand. Aluminum prices still have short-term catch-up demand [42][43]. 2. Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite Market**: The price of domestic bauxite has slightly decreased, and the supply is expected to gradually ease. The price of imported bauxite has also decreased, and the market is trading lightly [44]. - **Alumina**: It has rebounded with the general trend, and the import window remains open. The domestic alumina plant maintains a high level of operation [47][48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The import window for aluminum ingots remains closed, and the net import in November has declined [56][63]. - **Downstream Consumption**: High aluminum prices have suppressed downstream consumption, and the operating rates of processing enterprises are differentiated. It is expected that the operating rates will maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [66]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [71]. Nickel 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - In the first week of 2026, Shanghai nickel first rose and then fell, with a large fluctuation range. The spot market has obvious speculative inventory phenomena. The import window remains closed [75]. - Driven by global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances, the operating center of nickel prices is expected to rise, but short-term attention should be paid to policy changes [79]. 2. Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore Market**: The prices of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable this week. In November 2025, the national nickel ore import volume decreased month-on-month [80]. - **Nickel Iron Market**: In December 2025, the national nickel pig iron output decreased month-on-month. The supply side continued to hold prices firm, and the demand side had some activity but still had differences between upstream and downstream [87]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel has been rapidly released. In December, the monthly output of electrolytic nickel in China increased month-on-month [92]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The price of nickel salt continued to decline this week. In December, the monthly output of nickel sulfate decreased month-on-month [98]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The inventory of the stainless steel market has decreased, and the market sentiment is strong. The inquiry and transaction are relatively active [103]. Zinc 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Geopolitical risks have driven up the prices of precious metals and non-ferrous metals, but the zinc price has risen weakly this round. It has fallen back from a high level in the second half of the week. The zinc price has entered a high-level oscillation [104][105]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply of domestic zinc ore is tight, and the processing fee continues to decline. The import window for zinc ore is open, but the transaction is light. It is expected that the zinc ingot output in January will increase month-on-month [112][113]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide are different. Galvanizing has increased slightly, while die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide have decreased. The overall demand is weak in the off-season [114][115]. - **Spot Market**: Domestic inventories have increased, and LME zinc inventories have also increased [116].

Group 1: Core Views on Metals - The company is bullish on copper and aluminum prices, cautiously optimistic on platinum, and neutral to bearish on palladium prices [1] - Copper prices are experiencing upward momentum but are accompanied by short-term adjustments; supply is increasing but at a declining growth rate, while demand is stable despite some concerns [2] - Aluminum prices are also rising, supported by tight supply conditions, with demand growth in the automotive sector remaining stable, although new energy vehicle growth is slowing [3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - For copper, the company suggests focusing on leading upstream enterprises with copper mines and ongoing acquisitions, as copper pricing has not yet peaked [1][2] - In the aluminum sector, attention should be on the electrolytic aluminum segment, while for platinum, the focus should be on domestic platinum recycling leaders [1][3] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating on the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - The global supply-demand balance for platinum is tight, with strong demand from the automotive sector, but new energy vehicle growth is slowing, leading to a cautious outlook [4] - Palladium prices are under pressure due to weak demand from the gasoline vehicle market, with inventory levels rising, indicating a loosening supply-demand balance [5] - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen significant price increases, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 13.68% rise this month and a 65.05% increase over the past six months [8] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The current economic cycle is characterized by a downturn, with potential benefits for certain commodities as the market seeks new global assets amid U.S. economic challenges [6][7] - The company notes that as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, there may be increased capital outflow from the U.S., which could further enhance the valuation of globally priced commodities like gold and copper [7]