Summary of Conference Call on Copper Industry Industry Overview - **Copper Supply Constraints**: Multiple factors are limiting copper supply growth, including Teck Resources lowering production guidance, Andeavor Logistics having conservative production expectations, and uncertainties surrounding the KK mine's output from the joint venture between Ivanhoe and Zijin Mining. Additionally, the recovery of the KOVEA mine by First Quantum is uncertain, and Chilean copper production may be affected by accidents [1][2][8]. Key Points and Arguments - **Electricity Demand Support**: The State Grid's investment is expected to increase in Q4, leading to a recovery in the operating rates of wire and cable companies. China's wire and cable exports are maintaining high growth, offsetting trade war impacts and supporting domestic copper demand, with no significant inventory accumulation observed [1][4]. - **Home Appliance Demand Improvement**: The home appliance sector is showing a slight improvement in Q4 compared to Q3, although it remains down year-on-year. Long-term growth for air conditioning is expected to stabilize at around 2% annually [1][5]. - **Transportation Sector Demand**: The demand for copper in the transportation sector, particularly from electric vehicles, is expected to maintain high growth rates, with an overall increase of over ten percentage points anticipated for the transportation segment [1][6]. - **Changes in Smelting Landscape**: By the end of next year, processing fees may drop to zero, putting significant cost pressure on overseas smelting companies, some of which have already closed or reduced capacity. This situation will highlight the cost advantages of Chinese smelting companies and may reshape the global smelting landscape [1][12]. Future Market Outlook - **Copper Price Predictions**: Copper prices are expected to exceed market expectations in Q4 and the first half of next year, potentially reaching between 100,000 to 120,000 yuan per ton, although the duration at these high levels may be limited [3][9][15]. - **Supply Outlook for 2026**: The copper supply is not expected to see significant growth next year. The KK mine's production guidance remains unclear, and the KOVEA mine's recovery is uncertain. Chilean copper production is projected to increase by about 50,000 tons, but past production guidance has often not been met [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - **Companies to Watch**: - **Zijin Mining**: Valuation is low with an increasing share of gold business, expected profits around 52.3 billion yuan this year, and 65 to 70 billion next year, corresponding to a valuation of about 11 to 12 times [3][10]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum**: Performance has exceeded expectations, particularly in Q3 [10]. - **Copper Industry Second-Tier Stocks**: Focus on Tongling Nonferrous Metals (high growth and dividend yield) and Western Mining (acquisition of copper-gold polymetallic mine to enhance resource reserves) [3][10][11][13]. Additional Insights - **Western Mining's Recent Developments**: The company reported Q3 results in line with expectations and acquired a copper-gold polymetallic mine for 8.6 billion yuan, which has significant copper and gold resources. This acquisition is seen as reasonable given the resource value [13][14]. - **Copper Supply from Tongling Nonferrous Metals**: Expected production of about 190,000 tons this year, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas operations. The company is committed to a dividend payout of over 50%, resulting in a high dividend yield [11]. - **Challenges for Smelting Companies**: The potential for zero processing fees by the end of next year poses significant challenges for overseas smelting companies, which may struggle to maintain production levels [12]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the copper industry, highlighting supply constraints, demand dynamics, price forecasts, and investment opportunities.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests holding mid - line long positions in copper, with the mid - term support range for Shanghai copper 2512 at 84,000 - 84,500 yuan/ton [6]. - Although the TC price of copper concentrate is at a historical low, the cash flow of smelters is supported by by - product revenues such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver, and there is no large - scale production cut for now. In October, the increase in domestic smelting maintenance is expected to lead to a decline in the year - on - year growth rate and a month - on - month decrease in electrolytic copper production. The limited supply of anode copper restricts production, and the production in November may continue to decline. The increase in imported copper arrivals and weak downstream consumption have slowed down the inventory depletion rate [7]. - The traditional peak season is coming to an end, and the downstream copper operating rate may decline, mainly dragged down by the sluggish building materials, home appliances, and real estate industries. However, the demand from the new energy industry is strong. It is expected that the copper demand in the power grid, new energy, home appliances and other fields from Q4 2025 to 2026 will receive rigid support, forming an important support for the demand side. The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted market sentiment [7]. - Last week, the LME copper inventory continued its downward trend, reaching a two - month low. The domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, and high copper prices suppressed downstream purchases. It is expected that the market will remain strong this week, with the possibility of further upward breakthrough [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Strategy**: Hold mid - line long positions, with the mid - term support range for Shanghai copper 2512 at 84,000 - 84,500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro**: Sino - US trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur are unlikely to be a turning point in bilateral relations. China's "15th Five - Year Plan" has significantly boosted market sentiment [7]. - **Supply**: The TC price of copper concentrate is at a historical low, but by - product revenues support smelters. In October, domestic smelting maintenance increased, and production may decline in November. Imported copper arrivals and weak consumption slowed inventory depletion [7]. - **Demand**: The traditional peak season is ending, and downstream operating rates may fall due to weak industries, but new energy demand is strong. The "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted market expectations [7]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory is down, while domestic social inventory is up, and high prices suppress purchases [7]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets There is no specific text content for summary in this section, only figure - related information. 3.3. Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Resource Distribution and Capital Expenditure**: Copper resources are mainly distributed in Chile, Australia, Peru, etc. China's copper resources are relatively scarce. Global long - term capital expenditure restricts incremental supply, and existing mines face challenges in stable production. Optimistic estimates for global copper mine production increments in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 56, 128, and 470,000 tons respectively, with corresponding growth rates of about 2.5%, 5.6%, and 1.9%. In a neutral scenario, the supply growth rates are expected to be 2.0%, 3.0%, and 1.0% [21][22]. - **Copper Concentrate**: As of October 24, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate is - 42.50 US dollars/dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price is 2902 US dollars/dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In August 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 1.5328 million tons, and from January to August, it was 12.1509 million tons [27]. - **Global Copper Production Distribution**: Different data sources show the copper production of various countries. The global copper mine production in 2024 was 22.388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [29]. - **Global Major Copper Mine Project Increment and Main Newly - Added Smelting Capacities**: In the next two years, there will be concentrated new and expansion projects of mines. The global copper mine capacity is expanding, but the capacity utilization rate is decreasing. In 2024, the global copper mine capacity reached 28.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped from 82.20% in 2020 to 80.1% in 2024 [32][34]. - **Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory**: In September 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.587 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. From January to September, the imports were 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In the 43rd week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 404,000 tons [37]. - **Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production**: In August 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.3033 million tons, with a surplus of 256,500 tons. From January to August, the production was 18.2159 million tons, with a surplus of 1.8436 million tons. In September 2025, China's domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 14.48%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 10.1596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.64% [44]. - **Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export**: In September 2025, China's refined copper imports were 374,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 3.5509 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.07% [47]. - **Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: In September 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 184,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.63% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 1.699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. As of October 24, 2025, the refined - scrap price difference in the Guangdong market was 3079 yuan/ton [52]. - **International Visible Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the LME inventory was 136,900 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached 348,000 tons, a new high in recent years [56][57]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, China's social inventory was 189,800 tons, and the SHFE inventory fluctuated at a low level [60][61]. 3.4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: In September 2025, China's copper product output was 2.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to September, the cumulative output was 18.575 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and from January to September, the imports were 4.019 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. From January to September, the cumulative exports were 1.1428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [66][70]. - **Terminal Market - Power**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative power grid investment was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In August, the single - month investment was 48.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26%. From January to August, the cumulative power source investment was 499.2 billion yuan, with no year - on - year change. In August, the single - month investment was 70.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [75]. - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, China's real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and residential investment was 5.2046 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% [78]. - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9%, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of the total vehicle sales [82]. - **New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate and New Energy Unit Copper Consumption**: It is predicted that by 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales will reach 25 million, accounting for about 25% of the global vehicle sales. By 2030, the market share will exceed 40%. The total copper consumption will increase from 1.882 million tons in 2025 to 4.847 million tons in 2030 [86]. - **Global Copper Downstream Consumption and Green Demand Forecast**: The new energy demand for copper is about to enter a stage of "high base * normal growth rate = high increment". It is expected that in 2025, the green demand for copper (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed the building demand [97]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It is predicted that the global copper supply will still be slightly in surplus in 2025 but will decrease significantly compared to 2024, be slightly in short supply in 2026, and the shortage will widen in 2027. The domestic supply - demand will be in a tight balance, and the actual consumption growth rate of Chinese electrolytic copper in 2025 is expected to be 1.91% [104]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: There is no specific text content for summary in this section.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term, driven by supply disruptions and ongoing negotiations between the US and China [4] - Aluminum prices are on the rise due to continuous inventory depletion, while the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [4] - Lithium prices are recovering from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season, with a notable decrease in inventory [4] - Cobalt prices are likely to continue rising due to the implementation of export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may tighten supply [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report indicates that the US CPI for September was lower than expected, which may influence market conditions [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the non-ferrous sector increased by 1.13%, underperforming the index by 1.75 percentage points [11][12] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous sector is 27.27, with a weekly change of 0.68, while the PB is 3.17, reflecting a 0.09 change [21][24] 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased by 2.61% in London and 3.95% in Shanghai, with inventories decreasing [26] - Aluminum prices rose by 2.78% in London and 1.14% in Shanghai, with a notable increase in aluminum enterprise profits [36] - Lead and zinc prices also saw increases, with lead prices up by 2.00% and zinc by 2.48% [47] - Lithium prices for lithium carbonate rose by 2.79% to 75,400 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene increased by 4.14% to 881 USD/ton [76] - Cobalt prices saw a significant increase, with MB cobalt rising by 7.75% to 22.60 USD/pound [89]

Core Insights - Northern Copper achieved a revenue of 7.162 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.14% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 202 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 133.57% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share stood at 0.106 yuan for Q3 2025 [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company reported a total revenue of 19.973 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 9.56% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 689 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.07% [1] - Basic earnings per share for the first three quarters were recorded at 0.362 yuan [1]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals dated October 21, 2025, focusing on various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomically, Sino - US trade relations ease, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is being watched. Fundamentally, copper mine supply disturbances increase. SMM expects a decrease in electrolytic copper production in October. Consumption shows "peak season without peak". The recommended trading strategies are long on dips, continue to hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [2][4][5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant after downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some small - scale production cuts and maintenance have started, and more are expected in November. The price is expected to bottom out around 2800 yuan. Strategies include short - term low - level consolidation and waiting on spreads and options [11][12][13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors will drive the price this week. The consumption resilience in the fundamentals provides support. The strategy is to be bullish on dips and cautious on chasing highs [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price. High social inventory and warehouse receipts may limit the upside. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Strategies include being bullish on dips and waiting on spreads and options [24][25]. - **Zinc**: The import zinc ore loss widens, and domestic processing fees decline. The supply of refined zinc may increase, and consumption may weaken. The price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Strategies include waiting on all trading types [27][31][33]. - **Lead**: Downstream lead - storage enterprise orders improve, but production may increase in mid - to - late October, and the price may fall. Strategies include holding short positions and selling out - of - the - money call options [38][39]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and there is cost support, but the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside. The price is expected to oscillate widely with a downward center. Strategies include shorting at the upper limit of the oscillation range and selling a wide - straddle combination [43][45][46]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is below the cost, and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It may keep a weak oscillation pattern. Strategies include weak oscillation and waiting on spreads [51][52]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade tensions ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly. The price may oscillate around the integer level. Strategies include waiting on options [58][59][60]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Polysilicon production cuts in November are bearish for demand. The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply. Strategies include waiting for a full correction [63][64][65]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand balance will improve in November. The short - term correction space is limited. Strategies include buying on dips, holding reverse spreads, and adjusting option strategies [70][71][72]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand. The price's oscillation center moves up. Strategies include being bullish on the oscillation, waiting on spreads, and selling out - of - the - money put options [74][75]. Group 4: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2512 rose 0.16% to 85400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 2 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is held, and Japan, Spain, and South Korea express concerns about copper processing and refining fees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors affect the market, and the export window may open again [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on dips, hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 fell 6 yuan to 2810 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price decreased in most regions [6]. - **Related Information**: There are procurement, production adjustment, inventory, and import - export data [7][8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus becomes more obvious, and production cuts are expected [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term low - level consolidation, wait on spreads and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 rose 35 yuan to 20965 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose in different regions [15]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, inventory, and economic data [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors support the price [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, cautious on chasing highs [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy 2512 rose 60 yuan to 20460 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions [20]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, warehouse receipt, inventory, and import - export data [20][21][23]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price, and supply - demand factors affect the upside [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, wait on spreads and options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.39% to 21970 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot market was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory, production, and import - export data of zinc mines and refined zinc [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import loss of zinc ore widens, and the supply of refined zinc may increase [31]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait on all trading types [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.2% to 17155 yuan/ton, and the index position increased. The spot price rose, and downstream procurement was active [35]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory and import - export data [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand improves, but production may increase [38]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2512 rose 460 to 121380 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot premium was stable [41]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export, production, and consumption data [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside [43][45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at the upper limit of the oscillation range, wait on spreads, and sell a wide - straddle combination [46][47][48]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of stainless steel SS2512 rose 55 to 12665 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price was in a certain range [50]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export and procurement price data [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is below the cost, and demand is not optimistic [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Weak oscillation, wait on spreads [52]. Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2511 rose 1920 yuan/ton or 0.69% to 280870 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose, and demand recovery was weak [55]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, cooperation agreements, and mobile phone market data [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate around the integer level, wait on options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply [64]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for a full correction, no arbitrage and option strategies for now [65][66][67]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will improve, and short - term correction space is limited [70]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Buy on dips, hold reverse spreads, and adjust option strategies [71][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 fell 200 to 75980 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price rose [73]. - **Important Information**: There are production plan changes, import - export, and new energy vehicle production data [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand [74]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on the oscillation, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [75]. Group 5: Price and Related Data - There are daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, showing price, spread, profit, and inventory data [76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85] - There are also various graphs showing price trends, spreads, and inventory changes of different non - ferrous metals [87][90][94][98][105][107][110][117][119][124][126][130][132][138][142][146][150][154][157][162][165][170][174]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that short-term trade conflicts are suppressing copper prices, but there is a positive outlook for copper price increases in the future due to supply constraints and recovering demand [4]. Macroeconomic Factors - Recent changes in Sino-US trade relations may lead to significant fluctuations in copper prices [4]. Supply and Demand - Freeport is reducing copper production for 2025-2026, maintaining supply tightness. Demand from downstream sectors like air conditioning is expected to improve in Q4, which may support copper price increases [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 6.7%, while LME copper inventory decreased by 1.5% [5]. - As of October 17, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 681,000 tons, up 3.1% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 589,000 tons, up 4.9% from September 30, 2025 [5]. Supply Metrics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 840 yuan/ton this week [6]. - China's copper concentrate production in July 2025 was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [6]. Smelting Data - The TC (treatment charge) was -40.8 USD/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [7]. - China's electrolytic copper production in September 2025 was 1.121 million tons, down 4.3% month-on-month but up 11.6% year-on-year [7]. Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rates by 3.4 percentage points [9]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to improve compared to previous estimates [9]. Futures Market - As of October 17, 2025, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts increased by 6.8% week-on-week, indicating a strong market position [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism for copper prices to rise in the future due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - Trade conflicts are currently suppressing copper prices, but a rebound is expected as downstream demand recovers [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 6.7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 1.5% [2]. - As of October 17, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 681,000 tons, up 3.1% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across the three major exchanges reached 589,000 tons, a 4.9% increase from September 30 [2]. Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 840 yuan/ton this week [2]. - In July 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [2]. - Global copper concentrate production in July 2025 was 2.012 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year and 4.7% month-on-month [2]. Smelting - The current TC (treatment charge) is -40.8 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.3% month-on-month but up 11.6% year-on-year [3]. - In August, electrolytic copper imports increased by 6% year-on-year, while exports rose by 19% [3]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 3.4 percentage points week-on-week [3]. - The cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 61.91% as of October 16, 2025 [3]. - Air conditioning accounts for about 13% of domestic copper demand, with production expected to improve in the fourth quarter [3]. Futures - As of October 17, 2025, the active contract position for SHFE copper increased by 6.8% week-on-week, reaching 216,000 lots [4]. - The report notes that the current position is at the 64th percentile since 1995 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a potential upward trend in copper prices due to expected shortages in copper mines, particularly with the global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, facing production halts. The report suggests that the copper supply-demand balance may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage by 2026 [4] - The report highlights the performance of various metals, including aluminum, lithium, and cobalt, with specific recommendations for companies to watch in each segment [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent macroeconomic developments include a new round of US-China trade negotiations and comments from Trump regarding the unsustainability of high tariffs on China [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index down 3.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.60 percentage points [10][11] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index is 26.96, down 1.78 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 3.22, down 0.22 [19][22] 4. Copper - Copper prices have seen a decline, with LME copper down 1.86% and SHFE copper down 1.77%. However, the report indicates a potential for price recovery due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand [21][44] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with LME aluminum down 0.45% and SHFE aluminum down 0.47%. The report notes a decrease in inventory levels, which may support price stability [33][44] 6. Lithium - Lithium prices are showing mixed trends, with lithium carbonate down 0.27% and lithium spodumene up 0.83%. The report suggests that lithium prices may stabilize due to seasonal demand [73] 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased, with MB cobalt up 5.40% to $20.98 per pound, driven by changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [86]

1. Report Information - **Report Title**: Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - **Date**: October 17, 2025 [2] - **Researcher**: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Views - Copper is expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern due to strong fundamentals and macro uncertainties [8]. - Lithium carbonate is predicted to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan, with short - term supply - demand balance and continued inventory reduction, but facing increasing macro risks [25]. - Aluminum is likely to remain high - level volatile, affected by macro emotions and the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, with the import window closed [41][45]. - Nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged and the price under pressure, supported at the 120,000 - yuan level [74][79]. - Zinc will operate with a weak and volatile trend, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, with overseas low - inventory providing support and domestic weak fundamentals restricting the rebound [104][105]. 4. Summary by Metal Copper 4.1.1 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper traded between 82,300 and 86,830 yuan, with total positions decreasing by about 5.5% to 546,000 lots. The price rebounded after hitting the bottom, affected by Sino - US economic and trade frictions and market sentiment [7]. - LME copper traded between 10,463 and 10,864.5 US dollars. As of October 10, the net long positions of funds increased by about 5% to 59,179 lots [7]. 4.1.2 Operation Suggestion - Copper prices will continue to be supported by fundamentals but face increasing macro uncertainties, and are expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern next week [8]. 4.1.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven ports increased, and the import of copper concentrates and its ores in August 2025 increased. The production of electrolytic copper in September decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [11][13]. - **Demand**: The weekly开工 rate of scrap copper rods and refined copper rods increased. The开工 rate of wire and cable and enameled wire also rose, but the new orders of enameled wire have not fully recovered [15][17]. - **Spot**: Domestic copper inventories increased by 1.84 to 275,000 tons, and the inventory in bonded areas increased by 0.72 to 97,700 tons. LME + COMEX inventories increased by 2,701 tons to 450,000 tons [18]. Lithium Carbonate 4.2.1 Market Review - The futures price of lithium carbonate decreased, with the main contract trading between 71,800 and 76,840 yuan, and total positions increasing by 10.7% to 755,000 lots. The spot price of lithium carbonate moved up, and the market trading activity was flat [24]. 4.2.2 Operation Suggestion - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to grow, and the demand shows obvious peak - season characteristics. The fundamentals support lithium carbonate, but considering the increasing macro risks, the main contract is expected to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan [25]. 4.2.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of 21,066 tons, and the production from various raw material sources increased. The cost of producing lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and lithium mica increased [25][30]. - **Demand**: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide increased. The price of battery cells also moved up, and the demand in the battery field is growing [31][34]. - **Spot**: The difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons [35][36]. Aluminum 4.3.1 Market Review - Aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, maintaining a high - level volatile pattern, mainly affected by macro emotions. The futures price of alumina followed the sector down, and the price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory in the peak season continued to decline [41]. 4.3.2 Operation Suggestion - Wait for the callback to buy, and pay attention to controlling risks. The price of domestic bauxite is expected to remain stable, the price of alumina is under pressure, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the high - level volatility of Shanghai aluminum [45]. 4.3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite market is stable, with supply being temporarily tight in some areas. The price of imported bauxite continues to decline [46][47]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina continues to fall, with an oversupply situation. The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the import window is open [49][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The cost decreased slightly this week, and the profit increased slightly [57]. - **Export**: In August 2025, the export of aluminum profiles increased slightly month - on - month, and the import window of aluminum ingots remained closed [64][65]. - **Processing**: The operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises remained flat this week, showing a general performance in the peak season [66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly [71]. Nickel 4.4.1 Market Review - Shanghai nickel continued to move in a low - level volatile pattern, affected by macro factors. The futures market maintained a contango structure, and the import window remained closed [74]. 4.4.2 Operation Suggestion - Shanghai nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged. Pay attention to overseas market changes and policy disturbances in Indonesia [79]. 4.4.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: The price of Philippine nickel ore remained stable, and the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical nickel ore increased [80]. - **Nickel Iron**: In September, the production of Indonesian nickel iron increased year - on - year, and the production of domestic nickel iron decreased. The import of nickel iron increased [86][89]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowinning nickel is rapidly expanding. In September, the production of refined nickel increased slightly, and the downstream demand was less than expected [91][92]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of nickel salts continued to rise this week. In September, the production of nickel sulfate increased month - on - month, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly in October [95][97]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inventory of stainless steel increased this week, and the market demand is weak, with the futures price falling [101]. Zinc 4.5.1 Market Review - The US dollar index continued to weaken, and LME zinc had strong short - term bottom support. Shanghai zinc gave back the post - holiday gains, and the import window has been deeply closed since July [104]. 4.5.2 Operation Suggestion - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and is expected to operate with a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage and the actual export volume [105]. 4.5.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The processing fee of domestic zinc ore has peaked and declined. The production of refined zinc in October is expected to increase month - on - month, and the import window remains closed while the export window is approaching to open [115][116]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of galvanized, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises increased to some extent, but the terminal demand is still weak [117][118]. - **Spot**: Domestic zinc inventories decreased by 0.04 to 162,700 tons, and LME zinc inventories decreased to less than 40,000 tons [119].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals, each with its own market situation, influencing factors, and investment strategies. For copper, maintain a buy - on - dips approach; for aluminum, hold on dips in the long - term; for zinc, suggest waiting and seeing; for nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak; for stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak; for lead, expect high - level oscillations; for tin, suggest waiting and seeing in the short - term and holding on dips in the long - term; for industrial silicon, expect price oscillations at the cycle bottom; for lithium carbonate, price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances [1][2][4]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the spot price of Shanghai - copper decreased by 30, the spread between waste and refined copper remained unchanged, and the inventory of SHFE increased by 3405 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by Trump's tariff announcement, LME copper dropped 4.5% on Friday. The impact of this tariff conflict is expected to be less than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting reduction exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the price drop on Friday, the volume of price - setting and receiving goods is expected to increase, driving inventory reduction. Copper cable and aluminum cable construction are diverging [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Maintain a buy - on - dips approach, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots increased by 90, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, and the inventory of SHFE remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is increasing slightly, the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded significantly in September. Due to the holiday effect, there was seasonal inventory accumulation. The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthening, but Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a divergence in domestic and foreign market trends [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Keep an eye on terminal demand and hold on dips in the long - term [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the spot price of Shanghai zinc increased by 10, and the social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased [2]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose. The domestic TC decreased, and the imported TC increased. In the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, domestic zinc ore will be tighter, while overseas ore production increased significantly in the second quarter. In October, smelting capacity recovered slightly. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is decreasing [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Due to the poor domestic fundamentals and the opening of the export window, it is recommended to wait and see. For the domestic - foreign spread, gradually take profits on the long - domestic - short - foreign spread and look for opportunities in the far - month reverse spread. For the inter - month spread, pay attention to the long - December - short - February spread [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 450 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the domestic inventory is stable while the overseas inventory is increasing. The Indonesian parade has subsided, but there are still disturbances in the Indonesian ore market [4]. - **Investment Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the report. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the prices of 304 cold - rolled and hot - rolled coils decreased by 100, and the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 50 [9]. - **Market Analysis**: In October, steel mill production increased slightly. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chromium - iron are stable. There was inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijiao and Foshan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the report. Lead - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the lead price rose due to macro - factors. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recovery of scrap lead production is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand for batteries may weaken after the National Day. The refined - scrap spread is - 25, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 10 [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will oscillate at a high level next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,400 [14]. Tin - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the tin position decreased by 1121 [17]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the tin price increased due to macro - factors. The domestic smelting capacity has been reduced, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The demand for solder has slightly improved, and the domestic inventory has decreased slightly [17]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, follow the macro - sentiment and wait and see. In the long - term, hold on dips close to the cost line [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis increased by 285, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis changed, with the warehouse receipts increasing by 343 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Xinjiang's leading enterprises are resuming production, and Sichuan and Yunnan's production is stable. There is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon will be balanced in Q4 [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices decreased by 100, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 1538 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the lithium carbonate price oscillated. Overseas mines are reluctant to sell at low prices, and traders are holding back supplies. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the spot basis is weakening. The market is still in a stage of over - capacity [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances, and there is strong downward price support before the disturbances [18].