Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by tariff policies and supply - demand changes. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, and the supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement and waiting - and - seeing [3][5]. - The alumina market is expected to shift from a tight - balance to a structurally surplus situation in July, but the spot market still has some support, and the upper pressure on the price rebound is around 3200 yuan [12][16]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The short - term price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the inventory is expected to show a narrow - range increase or decrease in July [21][22]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a weak supply - demand relationship. The supply is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to be mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [25][27]. - The zinc market has a continuous increase in supply and enters the off - season of consumption. The price is under pressure and may decline [33][34]. - The lead market has limited supply growth and improved consumption. The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [39][40]. - The nickel market is affected by tariff concerns, with weak supply and demand in the off - season. The price is weak and oscillating with cost support [43][44]. - The stainless steel market has poor demand both at home and abroad, and the price is under pressure due to over - supply and inventory accumulation [49][50]. - The industrial silicon market may be in a balanced supply - demand situation in July. The price may decline slightly in the short term and then rise after a correction [55][56]. - The polysilicon market is affected by rumors and price transmission. The short - term price may enter a volatile trend [60][62]. - The lithium carbonate market has many supply - side disturbances. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the fourth quarter [65][66]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 77,980 yuan/ton, up 0.06%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 12,976 lots to 499,000 lots. In the spot market, the price trends in different regions vary [2]. Important Information - The US and Indonesia reached an agreement on July 15th. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. In June 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrates increased year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [3][4]. Logic Analysis - The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, the LME copper inventory is increasing, and the domestic supply is relatively sufficient. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement [5][7]. Trading Strategy - Not provided Alumina Market Review - The alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3111 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 8379 lots to 422,200 lots. The spot price increased in different regions [9]. Important Information - There are many aspects of information, including China's central financial meeting, domestic spot transactions, warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [10][11][12]. Logic Analysis - The production capacity is stable, but the output is increasing. The supply - demand pattern is expected to change, and the spot market still has support [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions continue to hold; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [14] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract increased by 85 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot price increased slightly in different regions [20]. Important Information - It includes inventory changes, US inflation data, Sino - US trade information, and housing completion data [21]. Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - factors and fundamentals, the price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the inventory is expected to show a narrow - range change [22]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under short - term pressure and fluctuates; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [23] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 19,820 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 93 lots to 10,075 lots. The spot price remained stable [25]. Important Information - It includes production, cost, profit, and inventory data [25][26]. Logic Analysis - The supply is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price is mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [27]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure at a high level and maintains a bearish view; Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider spot - futures arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is more than 400 yuan; Option: Wait and see [30] Zinc Market Review - The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.27% to 22,030 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index decreased by 3486 lots to 231,600 lots. The spot market trading is mainly among traders [32]. Important Information - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter of 2025 [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply is increasing, the consumption is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Hold profitable short positions and add short positions when the price is high; Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options; Option: Wait and see [35] Lead Market Review - The Shanghai lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.65% to 16,925 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index increased by 3823 lots to 96,600 lots. The spot market trading is not good [37]. Important Information - Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [39]. Logic Analysis - The supply growth is limited, the consumption is improving, and the short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out in the range; Arbitrage and Option: Not provided [41] Nickel Market Review - The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2509 increased by 1120 yuan to 120,710 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,098 lots. The spot premium changed [42]. Important Information - GKEML completed the LME warehouse receipts of three metals, and the US adjusted the tariff on Indonesian goods [43]. Logic Analysis - Affected by tariff concerns, the supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is weak and oscillating [44]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Not provided; Arbitrage: Sell put options; Option: Wait and see [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2508 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 12,670 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 5886 lots. The spot price is in a certain range [48]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of the BIS stainless - steel certification rule, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless - steel products [49]. Logic Analysis - The demand is poor at home and abroad, and the price is under pressure due to over - supply and inventory accumulation [50]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on rebounds; Arbitrage: Wait and see [51] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated weakly and closed at 8685 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The spot price of some grades increased [52][54]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [55]. Logic Analysis - The supply - demand situation in July may be balanced. The price may decline slightly in the short term and then rise after a correction [56]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price oscillates weakly and can be bullish after a correction; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [53] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose first and then fell, closing at 42,945 yuan/ton, up 1.50%. The spot price remained unchanged [57][58]. Important Information - China and the EU held an energy dialogue and agreed to continue cooperation in multiple fields [59]. Logic Analysis - Affected by rumors and price transmission, the short - term price may enter a volatile trend [60][62]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range; Arbitrage: Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon strategy; Option: Wait and see [63] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract increased by 260 yuan to 66,420 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 3318 lots. The spot price increased [64]. Important Information - China adjusted the technology export catalog, and Chilean indigenous groups applied to suspend a lithium - mining cooperation procedure [65]. Logic Analysis - There are many supply - side disturbances. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the fourth quarter [66]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait for the right - side short - selling opportunity; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [67][68][70]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Non - ferrous Metals Derivatives Daily Report [1][6] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 78,090 yuan/ton, down 0.26%, and the Shanghai Copper index increased by 2,144 lots to 512,300 lots [2] - Spot: In the East China market, the monthly spread converged significantly, downstream consumption was weak, and the premium opened high and went low; in the Guangdong market, inventory increased for 2 consecutive days, and downstream consumption was inactive; in the North China market, the monthly spread structure reversed on the delivery day, and the spot premium and discount rose sharply, but the trading activity was not high [3] Important Information - GDP: In the first half of the year, the GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In the second quarter, GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year [4] - Imports: In June 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrates was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. In June, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 464,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 2.633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [4] Logic Analysis - Tariffs: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st with a rate of 50%. The US's siphoning of refined copper from the world is nearing its end. Before August 1st, in - transit supplies will continue to arrive at ports, and the Comex copper inventory will continue to increase. After that, the supply to the US will decrease significantly, and the supply shortage in non - US regions will be alleviated [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: No specific strategy mentioned - Arbitrage: No specific strategy mentioned - Options: No specific strategy mentioned Group 3: Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 38 yuan to 3,165 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,337 lots to 413,800 lots [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of Alumina by Aladdin rose 5 yuan to 3,175 yuan; the national weighted index rose 8.6 yuan to 3,210.8 yuan [9] Relevant Information - Policy: On July 1st, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, emphasizing the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [10] - Inventory: As of July 15th, the alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 25,526 tons, a net increase of 2,111 tons [11] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: The operating capacity of alumina remained flat week - on - week, but production was still increasing. The supply - demand pattern of alumina in July will gradually evolve from a tight balance to a structural surplus, but the demand for warehouse receipts may disperse the pressure of spot surplus [14] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term strong and volatile, high - selling and low - buying within the range [15] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [16] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [16] Group 4: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 20,430 yuan/ton, and the weighted position decreased by 8,776 lots to 635,800 lots [18] - Spot: On July 15th, the spot price of aluminum ingots in East China was 20,510 yuan, up 50 yuan; in South China, it was 20,500 yuan, up 40 yuan; in the Central Plains, it was 20,380 yuan, up 50 yuan [18] Relevant Information - Inventory: On July 15th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major markets decreased by 0.3 tons compared with the previous trading day [19] - Industry: In May 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 92.92GW, a year - on - year increase of 388.03%. From January to May, the cumulative installed capacity was 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 149.97% [19] Trading Logic - Macro: The US tariff negotiation deadline was postponed to August 1st. Domestically, attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings this month [22] - Supply - demand: The negative feedback of the fundamentals is still there. The production of aluminum rods has been reduced for three consecutive weeks, and the ingot casting has increased, driving up the inventory of aluminum ingots in social warehouses. The demand in the off - season may not be too weak [22] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels in the short term, maintaining a bearish mindset [23] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [23] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [23] Group 5: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract remained flat at 19,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 31 lots to 9,982 lots [25] - Spot: On July 15th, the spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in East China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China remained flat at 19,600 yuan/ton, and the imported price remained flat at 19,300 yuan/ton [25] Relevant Information - Production: In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons, of which the output of ADC12 increased by 2.46 million tons to 32.6 million tons [25] - Inventory: As of July 14th, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 26,680 tons, an increase of 1,368 tons from the previous trading day [26] Trading Logic - Supply: Enterprises are generally active in shipping, but actual transactions are blocked. The supply of deliverable products is stable, and non - deliverable product inventory is transferred to social inventory. Raw materials are in short supply [27] - Demand: Downstream die - casting enterprises generally have insufficient orders, mostly replenish inventory in small quantities as needed or consume inventory, and postpone purchases except for rigid demand [27] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Under pressure at high levels, maintaining a bearish mindset [30] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan; consider spot - futures arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is above 400 yuan [30] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [30] Group 6: Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract fell 0.54% to 22,085 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc index decreased by 1,770 lots to 236,500 lots [31] - Spot: In the Shanghai market, traders continued to actively sell goods. In the morning, the zinc price on the disk dropped, and some downstream enterprises placed orders to pick up goods. Some traders reported that spot transactions had improved [31] Relevant Information - Production: A zinc smelter in Central China plans to conduct a regular maintenance for half a month in August, which is expected to affect about 1,500 tons of production [32] - Inventory: As of July 14th, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major markets was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with July 7th [32] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Currently, the domestic zinc supply continues to increase, consumption has entered the off - season, and social inventory is showing a cumulative trend. Zinc prices may be under pressure to decline due to fundamentals [32] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable short positions can continue to be held, and short positions can still be added at high prices [35] - Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options [35] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [35] Group 7: Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract fell 0.76% to 16,930 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead index increased by 1,494 lots to 96,300 lots [37] - Spot: On July 15th, the average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. Refined lead holders' quotes followed the decline slightly [37] Relevant Information - Inventory: As of July 14th, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five major markets was 63,400 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons compared with July 7th [38] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Currently, recycled lead is still in a loss - making situation, and the willingness to start production is difficult to improve. In July, there are maintenance plans for domestic primary lead smelting, which will have a certain impact on primary lead supply. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and the production of battery enterprises has improved [39] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range [40] - Arbitrage: Sell put options [40] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [40] Group 8: Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2508 fell 1,390 to 119,380 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 14,499 lots [42] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of Russian nickel remained flat at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of electrowon nickel remained flat at 100 yuan/ton [42] Relevant Information - Exploration: Canadian Nickel Company announced positive results from its latest exploration drilling at the MacDiarmid project, discovering a new mineralized area [43] - Production: In June, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4% [43] Logic Analysis - Market: The market's concern about US tariffs has resurfaced, and commodities generally fell overnight. The supply and demand of refined nickel are both weak in the off - season, and the short - term inventory is steadily increasing slightly [45] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Weakening in a volatile manner [45] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [46] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [47] Group 9: Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 rose 10 to 12,695 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 11,703 lots [49] - Spot: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel was 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled stainless steel was 12,150 - 12,200 yuan/ton [49] Relevant Information - Transaction: On July 14th, a stainless steel plant in South China purchased high - nickel pig iron at a price of 900 yuan/nickel point, with a total transaction volume of over 10,000 tons and a delivery period in mid - to - late August [50] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Stainless steel's external demand is restricted by tariffs and re - export obstacles, and domestic demand has also entered the off - season. The demand is not optimistic, and it is difficult to absorb the current inventory pressure [50] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [51] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [52] Group 10: Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures strengthened significantly during the day, closing at 8,785 yuan/ton, up 2.81% [54] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon strengthened significantly during the day, generally rising by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [56] Relevant Information - Policy: On July 1st, the US Department of Commerce launched a 232 - clause investigation into imported drones and their components, as well as polysilicon and its derivatives [57] Comprehensive Analysis - Supply - demand: The production of leading large - scale factories has been reduced by nearly 40%, with a monthly output reduction of 60,000 tons; southwest silicon factories are gradually resuming production, with a monthly output increase of about 40,000 tons. In July, the output of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons [58] Strategy - Unilateral: Strong in the short term [58] - Options: None for now [58] - Arbitrage: Stop profiting from the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [58] Group 11: Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market news, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose and then fell during the day, closing at 42,470 yuan/ton, up 2.78% [59] - Spot: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network statistics, the spot price of polysilicon was adjusted downward during the day, and the average price of N - type granular silicon decreased by 0.5 yuan/kg [59] Relevant Information - Market: After SMM's research, the market views and price adjustment trends of the top 5 component factories are divergent. Some leading component enterprises have officially raised the distributed guidance price [60] Comprehensive Analysis - Price: If a fixed price is set as the minimum price limit for the polysilicon industry, the high point of the polysilicon futures price will be the industry's minimum price limit. It is expected that the polysilicon futures price will fluctuate in the range of (37,000, 45,000) in the short term [63] Strategy - Unilateral: Long positions should consider taking profits [64] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [64] - Arbitrage: Gradually stop profiting from the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [64] Group 12: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose 140 to 66,100 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 12,117 lots, and the warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 1 to 11,203 tons [65] - Spot: The SMM - quoted price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 to 64,900 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 to 63,300 yuan/ton [65] Relevant Information - Project: On the evening of July 14th, Zangge Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary's invested company, Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., received a mining license [66] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Recently, there have been many supply - side disturbance news, but it has not had a substantial impact on production. The supply elasticity of domestic lithium salts is still large. In July, the off - season is not weak, and the price is difficult to fall deeply [67] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Avoid risks in the short term and wait for the right - hand short - selling opportunity [70] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [70] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [70] Group 13: Industry Data - Multiple metal varieties' daily data tables are provided, including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes. The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. [5][7] - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13][14] - The electrolytic aluminum market is influenced by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations. The inventory shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21][22] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum and weak downstream demand, with some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28][29] - The zinc market has a situation of increasing supply and entering the consumption off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] - The lead market has a supply that is difficult to increase and improving consumption, and short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40][41] - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, with prices showing a volatile trend. [44][45] - The stainless - steel market is affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, with prices expected to be weak. [51][53] - The industrial silicon market may be in a state of supply - demand balance in July. With the reduction of production by leading enterprises and the resumption of production in the southwest, prices have strengthened recently. [60] - The polysilicon market has price fluctuations within a certain range, and traders are advised to adjust their positions according to market rumors. [65][66] - The lithium carbonate market is affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, with prices rising sharply in the short - term and expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 78,400 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its positions by 7,283 lots to 510,300 lots. [2] - Spot: In the East China market, holders actively sold goods, and downstream buying was weaker than last week. In the Guangdong market, inventory increased significantly, and downstream procurement increased due to price drops. In the North China market, consumption was weak. [2] Important Information - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee. [3] - Codelco's copper production in the first half of the year increased by 9% year - on - year, and the output of its El Teniente copper mine increased by 14%. [3] - As of July 14, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.39 million tons to 14.76 million tons compared with Thursday. [3] Logic Analysis - The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. The LME copper inventory has bottomed out, and the price decline has slightly improved market procurement. [5][7] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for copper is provided in the report. Alumina Market Review - Futures: The alumina 2509 contract fell by 19 yuan to 3,145 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 8,041 lots to 422,200 lots. [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina remained flat, and the prices in most regions were stable, except for a 10 - yuan drop in Xinjiang. [9] Relevant Information - The central government emphasized the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. [10] - A Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina procurement price increased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton. [10] - The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 4,803 tons on July 14. [11] - The national alumina production capacity was basically stable, with an increase in weekly output and inventory. [11] Logic Analysis - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13] Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is expected that the alumina price will generally fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply changes of bauxite in Guinea and the "anti - involution" sentiment. [14] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [15] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [15] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell by 300 yuan/ton to 20,415 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 47,247 lots to 644,600 lots. [17] - Spot: The spot price of aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and the Central Plains decreased. [17] Relevant Information - The total inventory of Chinese aluminum ingots increased by 28,000 tons compared with last Thursday. [18] - The basis of aluminum in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased. [18] - China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity in May 2025 increased significantly year - on - year, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products in June decreased year - on - year. [18] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations, the inventory of aluminum ingots shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The aluminum price may be under pressure in the short - term but should not be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [22] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [22] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 175 yuan to 19,805 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 562 lots to 9,951 lots. [24] - Spot: The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in different regions decreased by 100 yuan/ton. [24] Relevant Information - The output of recycled aluminum alloy in June increased, and the cost of the ADC12 industry increased, resulting in a narrowing of profits. [24][25] - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased on July 14. [25] - The weekly output of casting aluminum alloy decreased, and the factory and social inventories showed different trends. [26] - Thailand plans to restrict the establishment and expansion of recycling plants. [26][27] Logic Analysis - Alloy ingot enterprises are restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and downstream die - casting plants have low operating rates. There are some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The absolute price of aluminum alloy futures is expected to follow the high - pressure trend of aluminum prices. [29] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is above 400 yuan. [29] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [29] Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract fell 0.67% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 13,800 lots to 238,300 lots. [31] - Spot: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in the Shanghai market was between 22,180 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium continued to decline. [31] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places increased compared with previous data. [32] Logic Analysis - The domestic zinc supply is increasing, and the consumption is entering the off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short positions can be held. [34] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [36] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [36] Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2508 contract fell 0.12% to 17,085 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 1,037 lots to 94,800 lots. [38] - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the transaction was average. [38] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with previous data. [39] - The average operating rate of three - province primary lead smelters decreased last week. [39] Logic Analysis - The supply of lead is difficult to increase, and consumption is improving. Short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range. [41] - Arbitrage: Sell put options. [44] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [41] Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2508 fell by 90 yuan to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,141 lots. [43] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the premiums of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained unchanged. [43] Relevant Information - The export of Philippine nickel ore to Indonesia is expected to increase significantly. [45] - GreenMe has solved the problem of refining low - grade nickel ore. [45] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, nickel prices show a volatile trend. [44][45] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for nickel is provided in the report. Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 fell by 30 yuan to 12,715 yuan/ton, and the index reduced positions by 5,271 lots. [47] - Spot: The prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given. [47] Relevant Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved Hongwang Holdings as a delivery warehouse for stainless - steel futures. [48] - The US imposed tariffs on imports from multiple countries and regions. [48][49][50] Logic Analysis - Affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, stainless - steel prices are expected to be weak. [51][53] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - sell when the price is high after the macro - sentiment fades. [54] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [55] - Options: Consider the strategy of selling call options after the price rebounds. [52] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 3.27% to 8,695 yuan/ton. [57] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. [58] Relevant Information - A project in Nanchang is expected to increase the total production capacity by 23,679.23 t/a. [59] Logic Analysis - In July, the production of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons. If leading enterprises do not resume production, the supply and demand will be basically balanced. The price has strengthened recently, and the inventory has shifted from factories to traders. [60] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Bullish in the short - term. [61] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [63] - Options: Exit the short position of Si2509 - C - 8500. [63] Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 41,765 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. [64] - Spot: The average price of some polysilicon products decreased. [64] Relevant Information - The price of domestic photovoltaic silicon wafers increased, and the transaction of battery cells began. [65] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon market has many rumors, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 37,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton. [65] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Long - position holders can reduce positions and participate in short - term trading with a light position. [66] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [66] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [66] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose by 2,380 yuan to 66,480 yuan/ton, the index increased positions by 34,081 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 399 tons to 11,204 tons. [67] - Spot: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. [67] Relevant Information - As of the end of June 2025, the number of new - energy vehicles in China increased significantly. [69] - Panasonic postponed the production plan of its battery factory in the US. [69] Logic Analysis - Affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, lithium carbonate prices rose sharply in the short - term and are expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for the opportunity to short on the right - hand side. [71] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [72] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options. [73]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the copper industry Core Insights - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by President Trump has led to a significant spike in copper prices, with COMEX copper reaching a historical high of $5.8955 per pound, marking a 17% increase, the largest single-day rise since 1968 [2] - The tariff is expected to have profound implications for both the U.S. and global copper markets, affecting supply chains and pricing dynamics [1][2] - The demand for copper is primarily driven by the power industry, with significant contributions from the electric vehicle sector, construction, home appliances, and electronics [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of Tariff on Copper Prices - The 50% tariff on copper imports is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, causing immediate volatility in the global copper market [2] - The COMEX copper price surged to $5.6855 per pound on the announcement date, reflecting a dramatic market reaction [2] Section 2: China's Copper Industry Fundamentals and Tariff Impact - China's copper consumption ranks third among metals, with a strong demand from the power sector and growing needs from the electric vehicle industry [5] - By the end of 2024, China's power generation capacity is projected to reach 3.348 billion kilowatts, a 14.6% increase year-on-year, with solar and wind power capacities growing significantly [6] - China's refined copper production is expected to reach 13.644 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [7] Section 3: Reasons for Imposing Copper Tariff - The tariff is aimed at enhancing national security and supply chain resilience, ensuring a stable supply of critical resources [8] - The U.S. aims to boost domestic copper production by making imported copper more expensive, thereby supporting local producers [9] Section 4: Effects of Tariff Implementation - The tariff is likely to exacerbate price volatility in the copper market, with potential increases in global copper prices due to U.S. market dynamics [10] - U.S. manufacturers may face squeezed profit margins due to higher copper costs, impacting their competitiveness [10] - The tariff will lead to a restructuring of global copper supply chains, as major suppliers like Chile, Canada, and Mexico will seek new markets for their exports [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4] - The report highlights that the U.S. may impose a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, which could disrupt global copper inventory flows [1][4] - Domestic copper inventory levels are at a near six-year low, indicating potential supply constraints [30] Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 12% [2] - As of July 11, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 646,000 tons, down 3.1% from the previous week [2] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 403,000 tons as of July 7, 2025, reflecting a 5.6% increase [2] Supply - The TC spot price remains low at -43 USD/ton, indicating challenging conditions for smelting profitability [3][59] - China's electrolytic copper production in June 2025 was 1.1349 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% month-on-month but a 12.9% increase year-on-year [3][63] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has decreased by 836 RMB/ton, suggesting tighter scrap supply [54] Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a potential uptick in demand [3][73] - Domestic air conditioning production is projected to decline, with year-on-year reductions of 12.8% expected in September [92] - The report notes that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [3] Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 13% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 18% [4][33] - As of July 11, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 179,000 lots, reflecting a significant decrease [4][33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Wanguo Resources [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - to - long - term cautious short - selling of far - month contracts or consider reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase [8][10] - Aluminum: Oscillating in a range [11] - Aluminum Alloy: Short - term low - level oscillation, medium - term potential for upward movement [12][14][15] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly, focus on high - short opportunities [15][16] - Lead: Oscillating [16][17][19] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short term [19][20][22] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing US reciprocal tariff game and Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports have led to a cautious market sentiment, causing a decline in the non - ferrous metals market. In the short - to - medium term, tariff uncertainties and weakening demand expectations will suppress prices, with a focus on structural opportunities. In the long term, the demand prospects for non - ferrous metals remain uncertain [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information Analysis**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 tons month - on - month, a 0.3% decline, but increased by 12.93% year - on - year. As of July 7, copper inventory increased by 1.11 tons to 14.29 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: Trump's tariff announcement has put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the demand has weakened in the off - season. Inventories have started to accumulate, and the upward momentum of copper prices has cooled. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate [7]. Alumina - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina increased. The government of Guinea proposed GBX and exercised transportation rights. On July 8, alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The Xinjiang railway issued a suspension order from July 7 - 11 [8][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, but the market sentiment has a significant impact. In the long term, the focus is on ore prices. The measures proposed by Guinea may increase costs. In the short term, wait and see; in the medium - to - long term, consider short - selling far - month contracts [8][10]. Aluminum - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the average price of SMM AOO was 20,660 yuan/ton. As of July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, and the warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased [11]. - **Main Logic**: The tariff negotiation deadline has been postponed, but there is still uncertainty. The fundamentals show inventory accumulation, and downstream willingness to buy at high prices has weakened. In the short term, prices will oscillate in a range; in the long term, consumption has potential risks [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. Thailand plans to impose a carbon tax in 2025. In June, the retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost is supportive. Demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 will oscillate at a low level; in the medium term, there is potential for upward movement [12][14][15]. Zinc - **Information Analysis**: As of July 9, the spot premium of zinc decreased, and the inventory increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market risk preference has decreased. The supply of zinc ore has loosened, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to decline in the long term [15][16]. Lead - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the price of waste batteries remained stable, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and SHFE warehouse receipts increased [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: The spot discount has slightly widened, and the supply has increased. The demand for lead - acid batteries has improved slightly. In the short term, prices will oscillate [16][17][19]. Nickel - **Information Analysis**: As of July 9, LME nickel inventory increased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Multiple nickel - related projects have advanced [19][20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [19][20][22]. Stainless Steel - **Information Analysis**: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of nickel iron and chrome iron has declined, and the 300 - series is still in an inverted state [24]. - **Main Logic**: The cost support has weakened, and the demand is out of the peak season. The inventory has decreased, and it is expected that stainless steel prices will oscillate in the short term [24]. Tin - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The price of tin ingots increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The shortage of tin ore in China is intensifying, and the supply from Indonesia is affected. The supply - demand fundamentals are tightening, but the demand will weaken in the second half of the year. It is expected that tin prices will oscillate [25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10]. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices have been leading the industrial metals market, with LME copper expected to surpass $11,000 per ton in May 2024, marking a new high since 2006. From 2000 to July 3, 2025, copper prices have increased by 431%, compared to 58% for aluminum, 319% for lead, and 124% for zinc [2][4][16]. Summary by Sections Long-term Perspective: Metal Prices - Supply and Demand Analysis Framework - The ideal scenario for commodity prices is when demand grows while supply is constrained. Demand determines the industry's ceiling, while supply influences profitability. If demand continues to grow, weak supply responses lead to stronger price performance. Copper is characterized by growing demand and constrained supply [5][20][42]. - Demand is assessed through three dimensions: volume, growth rate, and structure. Volume indicates the industry's ceiling, growth rate reflects industry potential, and structure indicates demand stability. A more diversified demand structure leads to greater stability [5][42]. - Supply is evaluated based on reserves, grade, and mine dispersion. Reserves indicate resource scarcity, grade reflects extraction difficulty, and mine dispersion affects the slope of the cost curve. Generally, lower reserves and grades lead to higher price levels due to increased development costs [5][42][43]. Copper: Growing Demand, Constrained Supply - Copper exhibits the most stable upward demand trend among industrial metals. It is primarily used as a conductor, with over 70% of copper products serving this role. The global electrification trend supports copper demand, aligning closely with global electricity consumption and GDP growth rates [6][21][28]. - On the supply side, copper resources are relatively scarce, with reserves only about one-tenth of iron ore and bauxite. The average grade of copper is lower than that of aluminum, and the industry has the highest mine dispersion, leading to a steep cost curve. New copper mines take over five years to develop, making supply responses to demand changes slow [7][29][31]. Investment Strategy: Focus on Quality Copper Companies - Given the long-term upward trend in copper prices, despite short-term uncertainties in the U.S. economy, it is recommended to invest in copper companies with resource advantages and strong growth expectations. Companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Cangge Mining are highlighted as potential investment targets [8][47].

Group 1 - Recent divergence in copper prices between the US and other markets has attracted market attention, with experts suggesting a high probability of a 50% tariff on US copper imports [1][3] - On July 8, COMEX copper futures surged nearly 10%, while other markets like SHFE and LME showed little movement, with SHFE copper futures even declining by 1.36% on July 9 [2][3] - Year-to-date, COMEX copper futures have increased by over 30%, significantly outperforming LME and SHFE copper futures, which have only seen around 10% and lower increases, respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The proposed 50% tariff by President Trump aims to shift copper production back to the US, with implementation expected by late July or August [3] - The significant increase in tariff expectations has widened the price gap between COMEX and LME copper, exceeding $2,500 per ton as of July 9 [3] - If the tariff is implemented, it may reduce the "siphoning effect" on global copper inventories, alleviating supply pressure in non-US regions [3] Group 3 - The rise in copper prices has impacted listed companies, with firms like Zhaolong Interconnect indicating that their product pricing is directly linked to market copper prices [4] - Chujiang New Material has implemented hedging strategies to manage raw material exposure due to copper price fluctuations [4] - Wolong Nuclear Materials has noted that while copper price increases are monitored, their pricing strategies and procurement methods mitigate the impact on profitability [4] Group 4 - The supply side of copper remains under pressure, with declining processing fees and tight raw material supplies [5][6] - As the consumption off-season approaches, downstream replenishment intentions are weakening, leading to a decrease in copper rod and cable production rates [6] - The overall upward momentum for copper prices is being suppressed by rising inventories and declining spot premiums [6] Group 5 - The likelihood of the 50% tariff being implemented is high, which may further widen the price gap between COMEX and LME copper [6] - Short-term, the tariff risk is expected to suppress LME and SHFE prices, compounded by the traditional consumption off-season [6] - In the medium term, while global economic uncertainties may weaken copper demand, supply constraints are expected to provide price support, leading to a primarily oscillating price trend [6]

Group 1 - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by President Trump has led to a significant increase in New York copper futures prices, potentially causing major supply chain disruptions in the global metals market [1][5] - On Tuesday, Comex copper futures surged by 17%, marking the largest single-day increase on record, with New York copper prices reaching an all-time high of $5.8955 per pound before closing at $5.6855 [3][5] - The imposition of tariffs could lead to increased costs across various sectors in the U.S. economy, including consumer electronics, automotive, and residential construction, due to the widespread reliance on copper [5][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that prices will rise sharply in the short term as market expectations for lower tariff rates were previously held, leading to a surge in purchases before the tariffs take effect [6] - U.S. copper importers have warned that the tariffs could undermine Trump's goals of revitalizing manufacturing and challenging China's industrial dominance, as restrictions on copper imports may lead to severe supply shortages domestically [6][7] - The global copper industry has been preparing for tariffs since February, when Trump ordered a study on the feasibility of imposing tariffs under national security grounds, facing resistance from manufacturers reliant on imports [6][7] Group 3 - The U.S. Commerce Department has completed its investigation into copper tariffs, with expectations that they may be implemented by the end of July or early August [7][10] - Despite the high prices, there is currently sufficient domestic copper supply available for manufacturers, as traders have been shipping record amounts of copper to the U.S. to capitalize on price differences [7][10] - Chile, the largest supplier of copper to the U.S., exports approximately 500,000 tons of refined copper annually, which constitutes a significant portion of U.S. imports [10][11] Group 4 - Analysts expect that once the tariffs are in place and the rush to transport copper subsides, Comex prices may cool down [11] - The U.S. is projected to consume about 1.6 million tons of refined copper in 2024, with domestic mines producing around 850,000 tons, necessitating reliance on imports from major trading partners [11]