Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the sustained upward trend of copper, gold, and aluminum driven by industrial logic, despite uncertainties regarding future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][14]. - It suggests that the primary driver for non-ferrous metal pricing will shift from interest rate expectations to industrial demand growth, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [9][14]. - The report highlights the potential for gold prices to rise due to increased liquidity from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase program, which may weaken the dollar's credit [9][14]. - It notes that tight supply conditions are expected to support copper prices in the medium term, with significant inventory shortages in non-American regions [9][15]. - The aluminum sector is poised to benefit from the accelerated industrialization of aluminum as a substitute for copper in air conditioning systems, driven by rising copper prices [9][15]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report anticipates a super cycle for industrial metals, particularly copper, gold, and aluminum, supported by strong industrial demand [9][14]. - It recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the gold sector, particularly companies with improving production metrics [9][14]. - For copper, it highlights companies with significant resource reserves and ongoing production expansion as attractive investment targets [9][15]. Steel Industry - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, leading to pressure on steel profitability [16][20]. - Weekly rebar consumption has decreased significantly, with a 6.40% decline compared to the previous week and a 14.55% drop year-on-year [20]. - Steel prices have shown a slight overall decline, with the average price index for common steel dropping by 1.14% [32][33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with significant year-on-year growth in production and sales [41]. - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen, reflecting increased demand and supply constraints in the market [46][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the likelihood of a bullish or bearish outlook for various varieties, but it emphasizes that these are only possibilities, not definite judgments [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The social finance growth rate remains at a high level. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale in the first 11 months of 2025 exceeded the full - year figure of the previous year. The growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans, medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and technology loans continue to be higher than the overall loan growth rate [1]. - For precious metals, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases provide solid support [2][18]. - The copper market is expected to shift to a supply - demand gap due to disruptions in ore supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. - The aluminum price has short - term weakening upward momentum, but a long - term optimistic outlook is still recommended, considering macro - level support and the situation of supply and demand [3][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Main News Concerns 3.1.1. International News - The Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, emphasizing that the subsequent pace of rate hikes will depend on the economy's response to each increase. The market has almost fully priced in the rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% at the December 18 - 19 meeting [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy next year to support the expansion of domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote high - quality economic development [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by several leading silicon material enterprises, was established, regarded as an important step in the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry. The planned annual silicon material production capacity of relevant enterprises in the future will not exceed 1.5 million tons [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on December 11 and 12, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 Futures, ICE Brent Crude Oil Continuous, etc. [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The long - term slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's interest rate cut in December and positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Loose policies are expected to increase, providing support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. The market funds are relatively loose [10][11]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend is hard to change. The IEA has adjusted the forecast of world oil demand, and OPEC+ production has increased [12]. - **Methanol**: It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. The start - up rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants has decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory has declined [13]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weakening, and demand supports the stable start of all - steel tires [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Pay attention to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the digestion rhythm of upstream supply and demand. The downstream demand is steadily releasing [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The inventory of glass is decreasing faster, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16][17]. 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion by the Fed support prices [18]. - **Copper**: The price dropped by more than 2% over the weekend. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a gap [19]. - **Zinc**: The price dropped by more than 1% over the weekend. The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals [20]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward momentum is weakening, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The macro - level supports the price, and the supply and demand situation needs further attention [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about the upward height in the short term. The weekly social inventory is decreasing, but potential supply increments have not been released [22][23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The rigid demand is weakening, but strong policy expectations in December provide upward momentum [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price has the power to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited. The medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The price is expected to be weak. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slightly behind, US soybean exports are slow, and domestic long - term supply is sufficient [26]. - **Edible Oils**: Palm oil has significant inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term due to positive news [27]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. International factors and domestic supply and cost factors need to be considered [28][29]. - **Cotton**: The price trend is strong, supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract may face adjustment pressure, and the 04 contract is expected to have further downward space due to supply surplus and potential Red Sea route resumption [31].

行 业 研 究 / 有 色 金 属 / 证 券 研 有色金属行业周报 铜铝价格波动加大，关注钢铁政策延续 2025 年 12 月 15 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：李淼 证书编号：S1160524120006 证券分析师：孟宪博 证书编号：S1160525030003 证券分析师：张恒浩 证书编号：S1160525090001 相对指数表现 -10% 8% 26% 44% 62% 80% 2024/12 2025/6 2025/12 有色金属 沪深300 相关研究 《铜铝持续低库存，价格或持续偏强》 2025.12.08 《铜或迎来反弹，关注战略小金属弹性》 2025.12.02 《供需结构逐步改善，继续看好铜铝》 2025.11.25 铜：低库存背景下高波动或持续。当周（12.5-12.12）LME 铜/SHFE 铜收于 11816、94080（美）元/吨，周环比+1.5%/+1.4%。当周进口 铜精矿 TC 为-43.0 美元/干吨，周环比持平，加工费深陷负值区间，凸 显铜矿现货供应紧张。当周精铜杆企业开工率 64.54%，环比-1.87pct， ...

有色金属日报 2025-12-15 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 美股 AI 科技股走弱加剧市场担忧，白银和铜价冲高后均大幅回落，铝价下挫，周五伦铝收跌 0.69% 至 2875 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 21775 元/吨。周五沪铝加权合约持仓量增加 1.6 至 67.6 万手， 期货仓单微降至 6.9 万吨。国内铝锭三地库存小幅减少，铝棒库存下滑，铝棒加工费下调，市场观 望情绪较浓。华东电解铝现货贴水期货 50 元/吨，库存减少基差报价延续反弹。外盘 L ...

加拿大石油行业这些年总算找到一条新出路，从2023年起，加拿大的原油销量往东方直线上升，那年总出口额就冲到近40亿美元，主要靠油砂重油撑腰。 中国正好赶上中美贸易纠葛，中国减少从美国买油，转头加大对加拿大份额。结果，2024年加拿大对华石油贸易翻倍，达到210多亿美元。 加拿大的油企乐坏了，本地库存堆积多年的问题缓了口气。 油轮从温哥华港出发，横跨太平洋直奔青岛或大连，船上满载着含硫高的重质原油。中国炼厂技术过硬，处理起来不费劲，还比中东货便宜，这买卖对双方 都划算。 2025年，加拿大石油对华出口继续猛增，上半年就卖出160亿加元，比前一年上涨了12%。10月，中国从加拿大进口原油创下新高，温哥华港半个月内发货 近500万桶。 加拿大石油协会的报告直言，这得益于跨山输油管道（Trans Mountain）扩建，运力翻倍，每天能泵89万桶油出去。 油砂开采企业像Suncor和Cenovus忙着签长单，投资升级设备降低碳排，以匹配中国环保要求。本地经济沾光，卡尔加里股市能源板块涨了20%，就业岗位 多出几千。 可繁荣背后，加拿大政界对中国的看法却没跟着暖和起来。相反，情报机构公报里，中国仍被贴上"最持久、最复杂 ...

观点：我们认为随着本周美联储"鹰派"降息落地后，铝价短暂走弱，但从基 本面看，本周全球铝库存总体小幅下行，LME+国内铝库存总计维持 120-125 万吨，安全库存维持低位，同时海外项目因电力问题减产+印尼增量释放缓慢 未来 2-3 年全球供需或维持紧平衡，未来库存或维持低位，对铝价形成支撑。 从金融属性看，本周国内外铜铝比创年内新高，铜铝在电力等需求有替代作用， 历史铜铝比多 3.3-3.7，意味铝仍有补涨空间，考虑美国当前铝升水接近 70%， 如果未来缺电逻辑造成美国地区减产，铝上涨弹性可能会更强。 证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20251208-20251212） 美联储"鹰派"降息落地，短期金属价格或 推荐（维持） 震荡运行 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 1、行业观点 1：美联储"鹰派"降息落地，短期金属价格或震荡运行 事件：根据中新社数据，美国联邦储备委员会 10 日宣布，将联邦基金利率目 标区间下调 25 个基点到 3.5%至 3.75%之间的水平，这是美联储今年以来第三 次降息，决策过程中有三名官员投票反对。降息会议后，市场对美联储未来降 息情况仍有分歧，根据 CME"美联储观察"，截至 1 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 有色金属 锡铜银持续突破，重视黄金板块机会 本周美联储降息 25 个基点，并计划未来 30 天内购入 400 亿美元短 债，预期明后年各有 1 次降息，工业金属、贵金属迎来普涨。不过周 五夜盘商品、美股出现回调，或因市场担忧后续日本央行加息，引发 短期流动性收紧。中长期角度来看，日本加息往往推动日元升值，进 而压制美元指数，美元指数有望进一步下行，贵金属、工业金属价格 或继续上涨，持续看好金银铜铝锡稀土锑锂钴钽铀等金属。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4302.7、61.1 美元/盎司,环比分别 +2.1%、+4.5%。美联储 12 月会议降息 25bp，点阵图显示明后年各还 有 1 次降息，并计划未来 30 天内购买短期国债以保证充足的准备金 供应，鲍威尔发言强调就业下行风险增加。12 月 6 日当周，美国初 请失业金人数 23.6 万人，明显上升且高于市场预期。央行和 etf 资 金积极增持驱动延续，持续看好金价中长期上涨趋势。伦敦和国内白 银库存紧张，现货紧张对价格有助推，看好白银价格弹性。 建议关注：山东黄金、山金国际、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、湖南黄金等。 ...

2025年12月12日，由成都传媒集团旗下每日经济新闻主办的"2025资本市场荣誉盛典"在海口召开。 会上，"2025第十五届上市公司口碑榜"正式发布。 南山铝业(600219.SH)凭借卓越的经营表现、完善的治理体系及良好的市场口碑，一举斩获"2025年 杰出口碑上市公司奖"与"2025年最佳主板上市公司董秘"两项重量级奖项。双奖加身不仅是资本市场对 企业综合实力的高度认可，更印证了其在铝行业高质量发展浪潮中的标杆地位。 2025年三季报数据显示，公司实现营业总收入263.25亿元，归母净利润37.72亿元，稳健的业绩表现 印证了高端化、国际化战略的正确性。 把握关键窗口期，打造机器人"核心结构件+关键传动材料"双轮驱动格局 值得一提的是，在铝行业高质量发展新阶段，市场变革倒逼国内铝企加速技术攻关，不仅在新能源 动力电池用铝、高性能铝合金材料等关键领域持续突破，在近年来备受关注的机器人领域，也存在着巨 大的市场潜力和材料创新空间。 当前，我国铝产业已步入"总量趋稳、结构优化"的高质量发展阶段，在新能源、新一代信息技术等 战略性新兴产业发展中发挥关键作用。作为全球铝加工领域的核心参与者，南山铝业的发展路径与竞 ...

证券研究报告 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 14 日 美联储如期降息 25BP，铜价上行 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/12/8-2025/12/12） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜 ： 美 联 储 如 期 降 息 25BP ， 铜 价 上 行 。 本 周 伦 铜 / 沪 铜 / 美 铜 涨 跌 幅 分 别 为 +1.54%/+1.40%/-1.75%。宏观方面，美联储 12 月议息会议如期降息 25BP，铜价上行。 ...

行业 有色金属周报 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 | ウ 铜 . | C | | --- | --- | | ウ碳酸锂 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… - 8 - | | | → 知 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 13 - | | | 0 妹 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...