Group 1 - After the Labor Day holiday, Shanghai aluminum futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 19,300 yuan/ton, driven by market uncertainty and expectations of weaker future demand [1] - Analysts indicate that the bearish sentiment in the market is partly due to the transition from the peak consumption season to a period of lower demand, as well as the impact of U.S. tariff policies on exports [1][3] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains at historically high levels, while downstream processing rates have begun to decline, leading to an accumulation of nearly 40,000 tons of aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventory during the holiday [1][3] Group 2 - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum is around 16,500 yuan/ton, influenced by a significant drop in alumina prices, which may exert further downward pressure on aluminum prices amid weakening consumption expectations [3][5] - The macroeconomic environment, including potential monetary easing and the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, could provide some support for aluminum prices, although concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on global demand persist [4][5] - The market is closely monitoring the performance of inventory and the spot market, as well as the upstream alumina prices, to gauge future trends in aluminum pricing [5]

《洞见ESG》4月刊 ESG强制信披倒计时 政策速递 证监会发文规范A股ESG信披，这458家上市公司须做好准备 近日，证监会发布修订后的《上市公司信息披露管理办法》，第六十五条明确提出"上市公司按照证券 交易所的规定发布可持续发展报告"。该《信披办法》于2025年7月1日起正式施行。 【点击查看详 情】 铝冶炼纳入碳市场有何影响？2026年碳配额缺口或达34万吨，企业需尽快降低碳成本 铝冶炼纳入碳市场的管控范围与电力行业有所不同。电力行业只管控化石燃料燃烧排放，而新纳入的 铝冶炼行业，除了化石燃料燃烧排放，工业过程排放也纳入管控。 【点击查看详情】 1200家水泥企业将纳入全国碳市场，如何减碳？ 按照单吨水泥碳排放550kg计算，近十年我国水泥工业每年碳排放在11亿吨以上。纳入全国碳市场的水 泥企业或达1200家，目前企业减排压力不大，但预计三到五年内碳配额将收紧，减排成本将上升。 【点击查看详情】 全国碳市场首次扩围：纳入钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业，新增1500家重点排放单位 生态环境部发布《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业工作方案》。此次扩围后，预 计全国碳排放权交易市场重点排放单位将达到37 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The market digests the news of tariff mitigation and domestic policy benefits, which will drive some bargain - hunting in the market. However, the new US tariffs are in contradiction, economic data is mixed, and global demand concerns remain. With stable supply, a tail - end of the consumption peak season but still resilient demand, and the pre - May Day stocking period, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate with a positive bias, testing the pressure at the 20,000 yuan mark [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price rose from 2385 yuan/ton on April 17, 2025, to 2459.5 yuan/ton on April 24, 2025, an increase of 74.5 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price rose from 19565 dollars/ton to 19815 dollars/ton, an increase of 250 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.2 to 8.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased from 439325 tons to 423575 tons. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 95909 tons to 76763 tons. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased from 68.9 tons to 65.8 tons, and domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory decreased by 3.14 tons [3] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot in the spot market was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared with last week [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the market digests tariff mitigation and policy benefits, but there are still concerns. Fundamentally, supply is stable, consumption is in the tail - end of the peak season with some resilience. During the pre - May Day stocking period, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate with a positive bias [7] 3.4 Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice on carbon emission trading market work, requiring tasks and time limits for key emission units in industries such as aluminum smelting. The US President will exempt some tariffs on automobile manufacturers, steel, and aluminum, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese tariffs may drop to 50% - 65%. From January to March 2025, the national new photovoltaic installed capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.5% [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which can be used for further analysis of the aluminum market [9][10][13]

美国铝业(AA.N) CEO：新增冶炼产能的建设需要数年时间，满足美国对原铝的需求至少需要五到六家 冶炼厂。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the general rise in commodity prices, with a strong performance in iron ore, amidst ongoing discussions between China and the U.S. regarding trade relations and tariffs [1] Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly higher, with energy and chemical products rising nearly 1%, and black metals showing an overall increase, particularly iron ore which rose by 1.48% [1] - Agricultural products showed mixed results, while basic metals experienced varied movements, with nickel up by 0.57% and copper down by 1.08% [1] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Apple**: The futures market for apples surged due to changes in delivery warehouses, with a reported cold storage inventory of 5.0061 million tons, a decrease of 234,500 tons from the previous week [2][35] - **Iron Ore**: Despite weak performance expectations due to supply-side changes, iron ore demand is expected to recover marginally as steel mills show strong recovery momentum [3][27] - **Urea**: Urea futures continued to rise slightly, with market prices in Shandong ranging from 1,850 to 1,900 yuan per ton, supported by demand and inventory reduction [3][34] Group 3: Domestic and International News - **International News**: The Federal Reserve's warning about potential inflation expectations disrupting interest rate plans highlights the uncertainty in the U.S. bond market [5] - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to support the development of international consumption centers in major cities, aiming to enhance the consumption environment [6] - **Industry News**: The expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions, indicates a significant regulatory shift [7]

Core Viewpoint - China is implementing export controls on gallium production technology to prevent technology outflow amid intensifying competition with the United States in high-tech sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - The new restrictions focus on gallium production technology, which is crucial for lithium-ion batteries and semiconductors used in electric vehicles (EVs) [1][2]. - China holds a 90% global market share in both gallium and cathode materials, and the country is leading in production methods compared to other nations [1][2]. - The Ministry of Commerce is expected to finalize these export controls by the end of February 2024, requiring licenses for overseas technology applications [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Implications - The controls aim to safeguard core technologies as Chinese cathode material companies expand into international markets, with firms like Changzhou Lithium Source and Hunan Youneng establishing overseas factories [3][4]. - The production of gallium, a byproduct of aluminum smelting, is being enhanced through new, costlier methods that yield higher purity, which the government is now restricting from export [2][3]. - The strategic importance of gallium extends beyond EVs, as it is also vital for military applications, including radar and communication systems [3][4]. Group 3: Global Context - The U.S. and other countries are increasingly focused on gallium production technology, with concerns that a lack of restrictions could lead to technology transfer to foreign competitors [3][4]. - The competition for high-tech dominance between China and the U.S. is escalating, with potential implications for supply chains and technology access in critical industries [5].