1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of the year, the supply is expected to continue to be released, but there may be disruptions. The demand side is likely to face pressure, and the traditional peak season may see a temporary improvement. The center of Shanghai Zinc is expected to decline both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The zinc fundamentals may remain weak, suppressing the upside space of zinc prices, but certain factors will limit the downside range [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, zinc prices mainly showed a step - by - step downward trend. The decline of Shanghai Zinc main contract exceeded 13%, and that of LME Zinc main contract exceeded 9%. In the second half of the year, questions remain about the operation of the mining and smelting cycle, the expected change in social inventory, and trading opportunities for zinc ingots [15]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Mine End: Temporary Mine Looseness Confirmed, Still Need to Be Vigilant Against Disturbances - In H1 2025, overseas mines produced relatively smoothly, while domestic mines slightly underperformed expectations. The annual overseas mine increment is slightly revised down from 430,000 to 380,000 tons, and the domestic zinc mine increment is revised down from 80,000 to 30,000 tons. In the second half of the year, the mine looseness cycle will continue, but the probability of overseas zinc mine disturbances may increase, and domestic zinc mines may consume raw materials but should not be in short supply [18][27][35][46]. 3.2.2 Smelting End: The Pattern of East - Rising and West - Falling May Intensify - From January to April 2025, global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year, while China's production increased slightly. Overseas smelters are restricted by the record - low Benchmark and have started to cut production, while domestic smelting capacity is gradually being released. In the second half of the year, overseas zinc smelters may continue to cut capacity actively, and the space for internal - external positive spreads may be larger than expected. The upward trend of zinc concentrate TC may have setbacks, and smelter profits may be under pressure [48][52][66]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Initial - Stage Demand: Obvious Sector Differentiation, Marginal Weakening of Restocking Momentum - In H1 2025, the overall initial - stage downstream start - up increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, the start - up was weak, and then improved with the recovery of terminal demand and the fermentation of the export - rush effect. After June, downstream orders gradually weakened. The restocking of downstream raw materials may be limited in the future [75][80]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure Demand in the Peak Season May Improve Year - on - Year, and the Construction Sector Will Continue to Drag - In H1 2025, infrastructure support was relatively stable. The issuance of new special bonds was basically in line with the plan, and the debt - replacement bonds were issued in advance. The actual operation of infrastructure projects showed that the investment growth rate increased year - on - year but decreased quarter - on - quarter. The construction sector may continue to drag down zinc demand [88][91][98]. 3.3.3 The Growth Rate of Durable Consumer Goods Demand Will Slow Down Both Year - on - Year and Quarter - on - Quarter in the Second Half of the Year - In H1 2025, the automobile and home appliance markets grew steadily under the influence of policies and the export - rush effect. In the second half of the year, the growth rate may slow down due to factors such as the weakening of domestic and external demand [101][109]. 3.3.4 Export Demand: Likely to Face Pressure - Overseas demand is expected to recover, but there may be regional differentiation. The export of initial - stage processed products increased significantly in H1 2025, but in the second half of the year, exports may face pressure due to factors such as anti - dumping and the end of the export - rush effect [117][120][122]. 3.4 Inventory Side - In H1 2025, LME inventory generally decreased, and domestic social inventory was at a historically low level. In the second half of the year, social inventory may gradually increase in the first half of Q3 but is limited by factors such as alloying, downstream restocking, and direct factory - to - customer delivery, and may remain at a relatively low level [132][136]. 3.5 Mining - Smelting Balance and Zinc Price Outlook - The mining - smelting cycle can be divided into two stages. Currently, stage one has not fully ended, and it is unlikely to pre - trade stage two. Zinc prices may be suppressed by weak fundamentals but limited in the downside range by certain factors. Shanghai Zinc may show short - term pulse - type declines during the long - term downward trend [139][140]. 3.6 Investment Suggestions - In the second half of the year, the supply is expected to be released, but there may be disruptions. The demand side is likely to face pressure. The reference range for Shanghai Zinc is [19,900, 23,000], and that for LME Zinc is [2,350, 2,750]. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies, and for the industrial side, selling hedging is appropriate. Pay attention to positive spreads in the long - term for monthly spreads and mid - term internal - external positive spreads when the structure is suitable [144][146].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is "Weak" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is expected to face increasing supply and decreasing demand during the off - season, leading to a gradual manifestation of oversupply and downward pressure on prices. In the medium term, holding short positions is recommended. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and as the off - season deepens, the downward trend will be more pronounced. Positive spread positions within a quarter can be considered [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The last - week closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract was 21,845, with a weekly increase of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 21,935, with a night - session increase of 0.41%. The last - week closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,649, with a weekly increase of 0.86% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 104,696, a decrease of 86,341 from the previous week, and the open interest was 76,563, a decrease of 46,597. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 6,815, a decrease of 9,197, and the open interest was 207,970, an increase of 1,574 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased by 229 to 8,743; SHFE total zinc inventory decreased by 2,602 to 42,864; social inventory increased by 2,500 to 79,600; LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,775 to 126,225, and the注销仓单 ratio was 25.57%, a decrease of 18.30% [7] 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has rebounded to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is relatively low. Zinc ore inventory at ports and smelters is relatively abundant [9][10] - **Profit**: Zinc ore mining companies' profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median level. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median level. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable but at a relatively low level compared to the same period [11][12] - **Production Capacity Utilization**: Zinc concentrate production capacity utilization has rebounded to a median level in the same period. Refined zinc monthly production capacity utilization is at a high level in the same period. Downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc production capacity utilization has decreased and is at a relatively low level in history [13][14] 3.3. Trading Perspective - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined from high levels. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end is gradually moving out of the back structure [21] - **Inventory**: Inventory has shown a stable trend at a low level, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has declined from a high level [22] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the domestic market is at a relatively high level in the same period [31] 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period [34][35] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [36][39] 3.5. Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. Downstream monthly production capacity utilization has slightly recovered and is mostly at a medium - low level in the same period. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [45][47] - **End - Users**: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [58] 3.6. Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which have an impact on the profitability of European zinc smelters [60]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年6月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒5月21日消息:世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据报 告显示, 2025年3月，全球锌板产量为108.74万吨,消费量为113.35万吨， 供应短缺4.6万吨。1-3月,全球锌板产量为328.31万吨,消费量为338.48万 吨,供应短缺10.16万吨。3月,全球锌矿产量为100.78万吨。1-3月，全球锌 矿产量为296.11万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22360，基差+275；偏多。 3、库存：6月12日LME锌库存较上日减少550吨至132025吨，6月12日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加2058吨至5133吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之下 ...

6月9日，沪锌期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约报21905.00元/吨，小幅下跌1.82%。 申银万国期货：周末夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国内汽车产销 正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供 应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 广州期货：美国经济数据疲软，特朗普呼吁美联储降息，但美联储官员发言依旧表示降息态度趋于谨 慎，地缘政治冲突不断，市场交投避险情绪仍存。海内外锌精矿TC价格趋于上涨，锌矿报价走低，周 内新增两家企业复产，贸易市场到货量增加，国内社会库存小幅累增，海内外交易所库存保持低位去 库，下游消费进入淡季，镀锌开工小幅走弱，持货商为出货调低升水，实际成交清淡。锌市库存低位， 供需两弱，短期价格上下有限，保持区间震荡运行，参考震荡区间22000-23500元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 机构观点 6月6日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：锌注册仓单75100吨，注销仓单61875吨，减少175吨；锌库存 136975吨，减少175吨。 国内外锌矿进口量上升，锌矿加工费持续 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The zinc market is expected to maintain a basic pattern of oversupply and weak demand in the second half of 2025. Under Trump's tariff policy, the risk of a US economic recession is rising, and the oversupply at the zinc mine end may gradually spread to the zinc ingot end from June, causing the oversupply and weak demand to resonate. The Shanghai Zinc Index may decline significantly in the second half of 2025, and if there are macro risks in overseas financial markets, the zinc price may fall to around the 90% cost line of zinc mines [1][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Review of Zinc Price Performance in the First Half of 2025 - From January 2 to May 30, 2025, the Shanghai Zinc Index fell 12.31% to 22,120 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 59,900 lots to 226,700 lots. The LME Zinc 3M contract fell 12.12% to 2,629.5 yuan/ton, and the total open interest slightly decreased to 213,700 lots [5]. - The zinc market in the first half of the year can be divided into four stages: from January 2 to February 5, the Shanghai Zinc Index showed a continuous unilateral decline; from February 6 to March 27, it showed a wide - range shock; from March 28 to April 7, it showed a continuous unilateral decline again; from April 8 to May 30, it showed a wide - range shock [5][6]. The Zinc Price Oversupply Cycle Is Not Over - Comparing three rounds of zinc oversupply cycles from the perspective of processing fees, the current domestic TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) has room to rise as its absolute value is significantly lower than the end of the previous two cycles. The current zinc supply is in the transition period from zinc mine oversupply to zinc ingot oversupply, and there is a risk of a sharp decline in zinc prices [9][10]. - As zinc prices decline, zinc smelters may jointly control production to support prices, and downstream enterprises may continue to stock up at low prices, which will resist the decline of zinc prices, but the actual impact needs to be analyzed based on subsequent production and sales data [10]. Outlook for Zinc Price Performance in the Second Half of 2025 - Macroeconomic background: After Trump was elected in 2025, global macro - economic disturbances increased, and the US has a certain risk of recession under high - tariff policies [13]. - Zinc mine supply: 2025 is the turning point of zinc mine supply. It is expected that the zinc mine supply will remain at a relatively high level in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the production disturbances of the US Red Dog project and other emergencies affecting large mines [13][16]. - Zinc ingot supply: The increase in TC and the strong by - product prices will push up the profits of zinc smelters. It is expected that the zinc ingot supply will remain at a relatively high level of 55 - 600,000 tons in the second half of the year [14][16]. - Downstream demand: The main primary demand for zinc ingots is concentrated in galvanized steel, and the terminal demand is concentrated in traditional sectors such as real estate and infrastructure. Currently, the demand growth is relatively limited [16]. - Overall: The zinc market is expected to maintain a pattern of oversupply and weak demand in the second half of 2025, and the Shanghai Zinc Index may decline significantly. The medium - term operating range of the Shanghai Zinc Index is expected to be 20,150 - 22,750 yuan/ton [1][16]

证券代码：002114 证券简称：罗平锌电 公告编号：2025-024 云南罗平锌电股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 （以下简称"曲靖发投"）签署了《股份转让协议》，约定锌电公司向曲靖发投 转让其持有的公司 7242.7600 万股无限售流通股份（占上市公司股份总数的 靖发投将持有公司 7242.7600 万股无限售流通股份（占上市公司股份总数的 股份总数的 5.0001%）。上述交易事项的具体内容，详见同日刊载于公司指定信 息披露媒体上的《关于控股股东协议转让公司股份暨权益变动的提示性公告》 告编号：2025-025）。 特别提示： 月 4 日（星期三）上午开市起复牌交易。 （1）取得有权国资监管部门审批同意； （2）通过深交所合规性审查并取得深交所出具的合规性确认文件； （3）本次交易所涉及的经营者集中事宜已自反垄断主管机构取得全部必要 的备案、登记、批准、豁免或不予进一步审查决定（如适用）； （4）中国证券登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公司办理股份过户登记手续。 公司将根据进展情况对本次交易涉及的后续事宜及时履行信息披露义务。敬 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the announcement of control changes in two A-share listed companies, Luoping Zinc & Electricity and *ST Dongjing, leading to their stock suspension starting May 28 [1][10] - Luoping Zinc & Electricity's controlling shareholder plans to transfer 72.43 million shares (22.396% of total shares) to Qujing Development Investment Group, which will change the actual controller from the county-level state-owned assets supervision to the city-level [7][13] - The company has faced significant operational challenges, with a projected revenue decline of 18% to 1.26 billion yuan in 2024 and a net loss of 78.85 million yuan [7][9] Group 2 - The involvement of city-level state-owned assets may provide financial support, debt restructuring, or resource injection to improve the company's operations, especially in the context of zinc price fluctuations and insufficient self-sufficiency [9] - *ST Dongjing is negotiating control transfer with equity investment institutions, with the new actual controller expected to hold 25%-29.99% of shares, indicating potential asset restructuring or business transformation [10][14] - The company reported a 16.71% revenue increase in the first quarter but still incurred a loss of 14.72 million yuan, facing delisting risk due to consecutive losses [10][14] Group 3 - Luoping Zinc & Electricity has diversified into agriculture, investing 260 million yuan in a rapeseed industry chain project, aiming to create a new profit growth point [12] - The dual-track model of "metals + agriculture" is seen as unique among listed companies, leveraging local resource advantages while mitigating cyclical industry risks [12] - The current control changes reflect broader trends in the capital market, with local state-owned assets optimizing resource allocation through cross-level integration [13][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] 2. Report's Core View - After maintenance disturbances, zinc prices rose and then fell. The current strong consumption supports zinc prices to fluctuate at a high level, but consumption may face challenges in June, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline in consumption after June. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.55/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 160 yuan/ton to 22,730 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 55 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 140 yuan/ton to 22,690 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 35 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 160 yuan/ton to 22,730 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 55 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On May 27, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,185 yuan/ton and closed at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 343,177 lots, an increase of 200,438 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 121,568 lots, an increase of 3,048 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 22,695 yuan/ton and a low of 22,175 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 26, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 27, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 151,150 tons, a decrease of 2,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - In the spot market, traders' supplies were tight, and concerns about the maintenance of smelters in South China pushed up the spot premium. However, downstream buyers were reluctant to buy at high prices, and the purchase enthusiasm was poor due to the supplement of imported supplies. A zinc smelter in South China extended its maintenance, causing zinc prices to fluctuate and rise, but the rise lacked sustainable momentum, and supply pressure pushed zinc prices back into the oscillation range [4] - Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but TC will continue to rise in June. Even at the current TC price, smelting is still profitable, and smelting enthusiasm remains high, so supply pressure persists. Domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and there is no condition for a short - term TC reduction [4]

Group 1 - China Merchants Industry announced the termination of the restructuring and spin-off of its subsidiaries, China Merchants Jinling and China Merchants Roll-on Roll-off, due to a lack of consensus on transaction terms and changes in market conditions [2] - Sichuan Road and Bridge is planning a related party transaction to acquire 100% equity and debt rights of Chengdu New Road and Bridge Machinery Co., which is expected to be a related party transaction but not a major asset restructuring [2] - Guotai Junan Securities plans to increase its capital by 1.5 billion yuan to Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. to supplement its net capital [5] Group 2 - Innovation New Materials intends to register and issue short-term financing bonds not exceeding 500 million yuan and medium-term notes not exceeding 1.5 billion yuan to enhance liquidity management [3] - Gree Electric's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to sell 5.9088% equity of Winshang Technology for 62.6333 million yuan, which will improve asset liquidity and cash flow [4] - Yapu Co. plans to purchase approximately 54.5% of Winshang Technology for about 578 million yuan to accelerate its strategic development in key automotive components [6] Group 3 - Deep Highway announced that Yunshan Capital increased its holdings in the company's H-shares by 10.81 million shares, bringing its total shareholding to 254 million shares, accounting for 10% of the total share capital [7] - Aichuang Data plans to procure servers worth up to 4 billion yuan to provide computing power leasing services [8] - Luoping Zinc Electric is transferring 22.4% of its shares to Qujing Development Investment Group, with trading suspension starting from May 28 due to control change planning [9] Group 4 - Zhongke Haixun signed a contract for an information processing subsystem procurement project worth 163 million yuan [10] - Enhua Pharmaceutical's associate company Jiangsu Haoxin Qing plans to go public overseas to expand financing channels and is establishing a red-chip structure [11] - Yunnan Energy Investment has been awarded the development rights for three wind farm projects, including the Fuyuan Nanchong Wind Farm [13]

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market has been experiencing low-level fluctuations for nearly two months, with a focus on whether the supply from mines can meet demand in the future [2][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since early April, zinc has faced widespread selling due to escalating international trade tensions, remaining below 22,500 points [2]. - Recent maintenance at zinc smelting plants has been higher than usual, despite stable processing fees for zinc ore [3][4]. - A significant zinc smelting plant in southern China extended its maintenance period, impacting production by an estimated 20,000 to 40,000 tons, which led to a price increase [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The decline in social zinc inventory continues, although the demand from downstream sectors remains resilient [5]. - The real estate sector's weakness has slowed the destocking of galvanized inventory, with new construction area starting in the first four months of 2025 down 23.8% year-on-year [5]. - Domestic zinc imports have reached historical highs, contributing to a stable supply environment for smelting plants [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The mid-term outlook suggests increasing pressure on zinc supply due to the resumption of production at smelting plants and the seasonal slowdown in demand [7]. - Analysts predict that the zinc market may experience a shift towards a bearish trend as supply begins to outpace demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation starting in mid-June [7][8]. - The processing fees for zinc ore are expected to remain strong in the third quarter due to high demand, despite an anticipated oversupply of zinc ingots [8].