Report Overview - There is no information about the industry investment rating [1][3][46][47] Core Views - The report focuses on the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on upstream prices, covering production and service industries, and also provides an overview of industry data and trends [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Events - In the production industry, the National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments emphasized consolidating the effectiveness of comprehensive rectification of the "involution-style" competition in the new energy vehicle industry, strengthening governance of key industries such as photovoltaics, and promoting the construction of a mandatory national standard system in the industrial and information technology fields [1] - In the service industry, the national childcare subsidy system implementation plan was announced. Starting from January 1, 2025, families with one, two, or three children can receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child until the child reaches the age of 3 [1] Industry Data - **Upstream**: International oil prices fluctuated and declined; egg prices rose slightly; glass prices increased [3][47] - **Midstream**: The PX operating rate decreased [3] - **Downstream**: The sales volume of commercial housing in third-tier cities remained at a low level; the number of domestic flights during the summer increased [3] Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries showed different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry decreased from 60.41 last week to 58.97 this week; the credit spread of the mining industry decreased from 39.96 last week to 38.75 this week [46] Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various industries also showed different trends. For example, the spot price of corn was 2,332.9 yuan/ton on July 28, with a year-on-year change of 0.00%; the spot price of eggs was 6.8 yuan/kg on July 28, with a year-on-year increase of 3.82% [47]

原油日报 | 2025-07-29 特朗普威胁缩短对俄制裁观察期 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.55美元，收于每桶66.71美元，涨幅为2.38%；9月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.60美元，收于每桶70.04美元，涨幅为2.34%。SC原油主力合约收涨2.06%，报516元/ 桶。 2、 在与美国总统特朗普宣布欧盟美国达成重大贸易协议后，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩对外解释其在对美贸易谈 判中的部分决定。冯德莱恩称，欧盟目前仍然过度依赖俄罗斯液化天然气，因此，从美国进口更多价格可承受的 液化天然气是非常受欢迎的。在关税安排方面，冯德莱恩确认，协议中对汽车行业的关税统一定为15%。她表示， 在当前形势下，15%的关税水平是欧委会能够达成的最佳结果。此外，她还证实，欧盟与美国在医药行业也达成一 致，将实施15%的统一关税税率。欧盟与美国尚未就烈酒领域做出决定，当天签署的贸易协定框架的细节将在未来 几周内公布。 (来源：Bloomberg） 3、\t也门胡塞武装军事发言人叶海亚·萨雷亚发表声明称，胡塞武装将升级其海上封锁行动，并展开第四阶段海上 封锁。胡塞武装表示将对 ...

Group 1 - In June, China's imports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas from the U.S. dropped to zero, indicating a significant strategic shift in energy sourcing [1][3][7] - The U.S. imposed high tariffs on oil (94%) and natural gas (99%), making imports economically unfeasible for China [7][9] - China's energy imports from the U.S. had already seen drastic declines in the first quarter of the year, with crude oil imports plummeting by 54%, 76%, and 70% in consecutive months [3][5] Group 2 - The shift in energy sourcing reflects a broader trend of supply chain diversification, with China successfully finding alternative suppliers in Brazil, the Middle East, and Russia [11][25] - The reduction in U.S. energy exports to China is expected to have significant economic repercussions for U.S. states reliant on these exports, particularly Texas and Louisiana [5][18] - China's strategic adjustments in energy procurement are part of a larger trend of reducing reliance on U.S. goods, as evidenced by a significant increase in imports from Brazil, which rose from 46% to 74% of China's soybean imports [20][22] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions have led to a reconfiguration of global supply chains, with countries increasingly seeking to diversify their trade partnerships away from the U.S. [28][30] - China's reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by $57.3 billion to $759 billion marks a significant shift in financial strategy, indicating a move towards de-dollarization [22][24] - The international landscape is evolving towards a multi-polar and regionalized economy, diminishing the U.S.'s role as a primary trade partner [33][35]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/29 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/22 | 65.31 | 68.59 | 70.21 | - | 0.82 | -3.28 | 1.05 | 210.19 | 19.69 | 245.18 | 34.39 | | 2025/07/23 | 65.25 | 68.51 | 70.26 | - | 0.68 | -3.26 | 0.83 | 212.13 | 20.58 | 244.90 | 34.35 | | 2025/07/24 | 66.03 | 69.18 | 70.48 | - | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental index from July 21 to July 25, 2025, covering various aspects such as production, demand, prices, transportation, inventory, and financing. It shows that the fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with different trends in each sub - index, including changes in growth rates and fluctuations in specific indicators [1][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.8 points (previous value 126.7 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds weakens, with the signal factor at 4.6% (previous value 4.7%) [1][9]. 2. Production - The industrial production high - frequency index is 126.1 (previous value 126.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The PX operating rate has been declining continuously. The current PX operating rate is 82.4% (previous value 83.2%) [1][13]. 3. Real Estate Sales - The real estate sales high - frequency index shows that property transactions are picking up. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 21.0 million square meters (previous value 17.1 million square meters), and the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 7.8% (previous value 6.7%) [25]. 4. Infrastructure Investment - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 119.8 (previous value 119.5), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt devices has decreased, with the current operating rate at 28.8% (previous value 32.8%) [9][34]. 5. Export - The export high - frequency index is 143.9 (previous value 144.0), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has been declining continuously, with the current CCFI index at 1261 points (previous value 1304 points) [9][36]. 6. Consumption - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.7 (previous value 119.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 points and a year - on - year increase of 2.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers continue to rise. The current retail sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers are 58,207 units (previous value 47,548 units), and the wholesale sales are 57,826 units (previous value 46,085 units) [9][49]. 7. CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value 0.0%). Fruit prices continue to decline. The average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg (previous value 7.3 yuan/kg) [1][55]. 8. PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.2% (previous value 0.1%). The price of thermal coal has rebounded. The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 649 yuan/ton (previous value 637 yuan/ton) [1][61]. 9. Transportation - The transportation high - frequency index is 129.2 (previous value 129.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 8.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Passenger volume and flight operation numbers have decreased. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 39 million person - times (previous value 41.14 million person - times), and the number of domestic flights is 14,428 flights (previous value 14,653 flights) [2][71]. 10. Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index is 161.0 (previous value 160.9), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 9.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. Soda ash inventory has declined. The current soda ash inventory is 1.874 million tons (previous value 1.895 million tons) [2][77]. 11. Financing - The financing high - frequency index is 232.7 (previous value 232.1), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points and a year - on - year increase of 29.6 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Net financing of local government bonds and credit bonds has increased. The net financing of local government bonds is 292.9 billion yuan (previous value 150.5 billion yuan), and the net financing of credit bonds is 54.9 billion yuan (previous value 44.6 billion yuan) [2][87].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 多空分歧 原油震荡整理 宝城期货 闾振兴 尽管 OPEC+延续加速扩产的趋势，但随着前期削减的产能逐步得到修复，未来进一步扩产的空间有限。 与此同时，全球三大能源机构纷纷下调今年的原油需求预期。不过，当前正处于北半球的消费旺季，油市 供需基本面多空分歧较大。受此影响，近期国内外原油期货价格呈现震荡整理走势，其中，国内原油期货 2509 合约价格维持 500~520 元/桶区间波动，上下运行空间均受限。 宏观因素推动原油金融属性增强 上周五，美国稳定币法案在众议院投票中顺利通过，距离正式生效仅差美国总统特朗普签字。该法案 规定稳定币需以美元或美国短期国债作为储备资产，这不仅强化了美元在全球金融体系中的主导地位，还 极有可能在很大程度上化解年内的美债危机，增强美债市场的购买力量，进而降低潜在系统性风险发生的 概率。 与此同时，近期国内"反内卷"政策释放出积极信号。在"蝴蝶效应"的作用下，乐观情绪传导至其他商 品期货领域。在新一轮供给侧结构性改革预期的推动下，近期国内黑色系商品板块与建材系商品板块联袂 大幅上涨，这无疑激发了能化商品多头的热情。 ...

周一标普500指数小幅上涨，连续第六个交易日创下历史新高，而纳斯达克综合指数也在震荡交易中 创下收盘纪录，因为投资者正在评估美欧贸易协定，并为本周多个重大风险事件做准备。 2025.07. 29 本文字数：1298，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 本周另一个焦点将是美联储周二开始的政策会议，市场普遍预计美联储将保持利率稳定。根据芝加哥 商品交易所集团的FedWatch工具，9月份降息的可能性为60.4%。此次会议召开之际，白宫正积极 向美联储施压。美国总统特朗普上周五表示，鲍威尔可能准备降低利率。 经济数据方面，市场将关注6月个人消费支出报告（PCE）以及非农就业数据，以衡量关税如何影响 消费者价格和劳动力市场。 个股方面，特斯拉涨3.0%，公司宣布与三星电子达成165亿美元芯片合同。7月28日，韩国三星电子 向监管机构提交文件，宣布与一家全球大型企业签订价值22.7648万亿韩元（约165亿美元）的芯片 代工供应协议。出于商业保密要求，三星未透露客户具体信息及合同详细内容。 耐克涨3.8%，此前摩根大通将该股从"中性"上调至"增持"。 截至收盘，道指下跌64.36点，跌幅0.14%，收于44 ...

新华财经纽约7月28日电（记者刘亚南）国际油价在隔夜市场上涨，28日早盘涨幅扩大，随后强势盘 整，尾盘出现拉升，收盘时国际油价均明显上涨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 根据美国白宫在28日发布的一份事实清单，按照美欧27日所达成的《对等、公平和平衡贸易合作协 议》，包括汽车及零部件、药品和半导体产品在内，欧盟商品进入美国市场将适用15%的关税。而欧盟 所产钢、铝、铜等产品将继续适用50%的行业性关税。 同时，在欧盟企业每年对美国进行1000多亿美元投资基础上，欧盟于特朗普第二任期将在美国再投资 6000亿美元。到2028年，欧盟将从美国购买7500亿美元能源产品。 PVM石油同仁公司分析师塔玛斯·瓦加（ Tamas Varga）表示，美欧贸易协议移除了另一层不确定性，焦 点看起来正在转回到基本面。美元走强和印度石油进口下降则令原油价格承压。 欧佩克发布的消息说，欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国联合部长级监督委员会28日召开视频会议，重申安全遵 守产量政策和进行补偿减产的至关重要性，并要求尚未完全满足产量政策的产油国在8月15日前提交更 新的补偿减产计划。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.55美 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing trade friction between China and the US has led to a significant decline in US energy exports to China, with imports of crude oil dropping to zero in June, marking the first time in three years [1][3] - The US shale oil industry is facing severe impacts due to the loss of the Chinese market, resulting in a dramatic drop in overseas sales and potential overcapacity risks [3][4] - China's ability to cut off US energy imports is attributed to increased tariffs making US energy products less competitive and its diversified energy supply strategy, including strong ties with Saudi Arabia and Russia [4][6] Group 2 - The Trump administration is under pressure from domestic energy sectors affected by the trade conflict, with significant job losses and investment reductions in key energy-producing states [6][8] - The upcoming third round of trade negotiations is critical for both countries, with the US seeking to address trade deficits and restore energy exports, while China aims to protect its rights and counter unreasonable trade restrictions [8] - China's strategic advantage in rare earth resources, which are crucial for high-end manufacturing and military applications, further strengthens its position in the trade negotiations [6][8]

秘鲁总统：与厄瓜多尔石油公司达成协议，将厄瓜多尔油田与秘鲁管道连接起来，以便将石油输送到秘 鲁塔拉拉炼油厂。 ...