1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Bullish Logic**: Middle - East geopolitical conflicts are frequent, the US - Iran war continues, and the Strait of Hormuz restricts vessel passage; the Fed has opened an interest - rate cut channel, which is beneficial to commodities; OPEC+ actual production increase may be limited [28][29]. - **Bearish Logic**: The problem of oversupply persists, crude - oil inventories are accumulating, and the production - increase path is difficult to reverse; geopolitical conflicts may ease, and there may be new progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, leading to a decline in geopolitical premiums; the duration of the US - Iran conflict is uncertain; the macro - economy is weakening with a downward expectation [30][31][32]. - **Strategy Summary**: The Strait of Hormuz shows no sign of opening, and the US - Iran geopolitical conflict is intensifying. Some countries are reducing production to address the rapid short - term increase in inventories, with the reduction scale likely to exceed ten million barrels. Over 20% of the world's crude - oil transportation passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the key point of the US - Iran game. Currently, only a small number of vessels can pass. The market still has a fluke mentality about the opening of the strait, and the impact of the supply gap on reality has not fully manifested. Iran's exports of about 1.5 million barrels per day have a significant impact on global crude - oil supply. The market has shifted from the fading of over - heated sentiment premiums to the gradual realization of supply problems, and the world still faces a supply - reduction risk of over 10 million barrels per day. The current market pricing may not be sufficient to account for this extreme situation [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Indicators and Views - **This Week's Key Events Review** - **Fundamentals**: The EIA report shows that in the week ending March 13, US crude - oil exports increased by 1.464 million barrels per day to 4.898 million barrels per day; domestic crude - oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.668 million barrels per day; commercial crude - oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 6.156 million barrels to 449 million barrels, a 1.39% increase; the four - week average supply of US crude - oil products was 21.041 million barrels per day, a 2.14% increase compared to the same period last year; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels; and US commercial crude - oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.194 million barrels per day, an increase of 772,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. The number of US oil rigs in the week ending March 20 was 414, up from 412 in the previous week. Japan released about 80 million barrels of oil reserves. Kuwait's daily oil production dropped to about 1.3 million barrels from 2.6 million barrels in February. The API crude - oil inventory in the US in the week ending March 13 was 6.556 million barrels, compared with an expected 730,000 barrels and a previous value of - 1.678 million barrels. As of the week ending March 16, the total refined - oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 14.425 million barrels, a decrease of 1.892 million barrels from the previous week [11][13]. - **Macroeconomic**: Chinese and US teams had in - depth, candid, and constructive consultations. The US PPI annual rate in February was 3.4%, higher than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.90%; the PPI monthly rate was 0.7%, higher than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.50%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week ending March 14 was 205,000, the lowest since the week of January 10, lower than the market expectation of 215,000. The European Central Bank expects the core inflation rate to be 2.3% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028 (December expectations were 2.2%, 1.9%, and 2% respectively); the inflation rate to be 2.6% in 2026, 2% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028 (December expectations were 1.9%, 1.8%, and 2.0% respectively); and the GDP growth rate to be 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028 (December expectations were 1.2%, 1.4%, and 1.4% respectively). The US wholesale sales monthly rate in January was 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 1.00% [15][16]. - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: The US is sending three warships and thousands of additional marines to the Middle East, while Trump insists not to send US troops into Iran. Trump said they are close to achieving their goals as they consider gradually de - escalating major military operations against the Iranian regime. The US is conditionally relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil products for 30 days. The Iranian foreign minister said that the end of the war depends on two conditions: ensuring that the war does not recur and paying compensation. US media reported that the US wants to destroy Iran's military power and then end the war as soon as possible, while Israel insists on hunting down Iranian leaders. Trump said Israel launched a fierce attack on Iran's South Pars gas field. Qatar Energy's CEO said that due to Iran's attacks, they will lose 12.8 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year in the next three to five years, accounting for about 17% of Qatar's liquefied - natural - gas exports. A US F - 35 stealth fighter was suspected of being hit by Iranian fire [19][20][22]. - **Institutional Forecasts**: Morgan Stanley raised its second - quarter Brent crude - oil price forecast to $110 per barrel. Standard Chartered raised its 2026 Brent crude - oil price forecast to $85.50 per barrel and its 2027 forecast to $77.50 per barrel. Citi raised its short - term baseline forecast for Brent crude - oil prices to $110 - $120 per barrel and expects the Middle - East war to ease by mid - to late April [25]. - **Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar**: Key data to be released next week include the US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, the US March S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value, the US API crude - oil inventory for the week ending March 20, the US EIA crude - oil inventory for the week ending March 20, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21, the US March University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value, the US March one - year inflation rate expectation final value, and the US oil rig count for the week ending March 27 [26]. 3.2 Price Basic Data - **Crude - Oil Basic Prices**: The report provides price data for Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle - East main contract from March 20, 2025, to March 20, 2026, along with week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [42]. - **Crude - Oil Forward Prices**: Forward - curve data for Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil are presented [61]. - **Crude - Oil Monthly Spreads**: Monthly - spread data for Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil are provided, including the spreads between different contract months [63][65]. - **Crude - Oil盘面 Spreads**: Spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, and Brent main contract - SC main contract are analyzed [70]. - **Main Oil - Type Premiums and Discounts**: Premiums and discounts for Saudi, Iraqi, and Kuwaiti oil to Asia, as well as premiums and discounts for Shandong refineries' imported crude oil, are presented [76][82][84]. - **US Dollar Index**: The relationship between the US dollar index and WTI price is shown [90]. 3.3 World Crude - Oil Supply and Demand - **World Crude - Oil Supply and Demand Forecasts** - **OPEC Supply - Demand Balance**: OPEC's 2026 supply - demand balance table shows the world's oil demand and supply in different regions and quarters, as well as the production quotas of OPEC+ countries [98][99]. - **EIA Supply - Demand Forecast**: The EIA's 2026 world supply - demand balance table provides details on world supply, demand, and inventory changes in different quarters [108][111]. - **IEA Supply - Demand Forecast**: Not provided in the document. - **OPEC Major - Country Production**: Production data of major OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Russia are presented, along with their export data [117][120][122]. - **Crude - Oil Supply and Demand Forecast**: Forecasts of global crude - oil supply and demand from EIA and OPEC are provided, as well as estimates of global flight jet - fuel demand [136][139]. - **Refinery Maintenance Capacity**: Data on global, Mediterranean, US, and Northwest - European refinery maintenance capacities are presented [141]. - **Refinery Profits**: Data on European 211 cracking margins and refined - oil cracking spreads in Europe and Singapore are provided [143][146]. - **Crude - Oil Inventories**: Data on sea - borne, in - transit, floating - storage, and OECD government and social oil inventories are presented [152][159]. 3.4 China and US Oil Product Supply and Demand - **US Crude - Oil and Refined - Oil Supply and Demand** - **US Oil Product Production**: Data on US oil product production, including crude oil, gasoline, diesel, etc., as well as refinery processing volume and capacity utilization rate, are presented [166]. - **US Crude - Oil Import and Export**: Data on US crude - oil imports and exports, including weekly, monthly, and annual changes, are provided [176][178]. - **US Crude - Oil Apparent Consumption**: Data on US crude - oil apparent consumption and derived demand from oil product production are presented [180][182]. - **US Refinery Profits**: Data on US 3 - 2 - 1 cracking margins and refined - oil cracking spreads in the US are provided [184][187]. - **US Crude - Oil Inventories**: Data on US total, commercial, SPR, Cushing, and regional crude - oil and refined - oil inventories are presented [188][196][201]. - **CFTC Positioning Data**: Data on WTI commercial and non - commercial positions, as well as CFTC ICE+NYMEY crude - oil positions, are presented [209][210][211]. - **China Crude - Oil and Refined - Oil Supply and Demand** - **Domestic Crude - Oil Supply**: Data on China's crude - oil production and imports, including monthly and cumulative values, are presented [217]. - **Crude - Oil Import Freight**: Data on freight rates for crude - oil imports from the Middle East and West Africa to China, as well as from the Middle East to Japan, are presented [219]. - **Domestic Refined - Oil Data**: Data on domestic refinery operating rates, profits, and inventories are presented [220][225][227]. - **Domestic Crude - Oil Inventories**: Data on Shandong refinery crude - oil inventory ratios are presented [229]. - **Crude - Oil Import Quotas**: Data on China's crude - oil import quotas and allowances from 2017 to 2025 are presented [232]. 3.5 Financial Core Data - **Financial Data**: Data on US initial jobless claims, non - farm payrolls, ADP employment, CPI, core CPI, and energy CPI are presented [239][241][243].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the intensity of AI investment in the US is high, but the sustainability of marginal returns is questionable. There is a possibility of external pressure being transferred to maintain the expansion path until a systemic correction occurs in the related bubble [2][3] - The process of maintaining AI valuations in the US may create a siphoning effect on global sovereign wealth, exacerbating the fragility of the global financial system. If energy prices continue to rise, the probability of the Federal Reserve restarting the interest rate hike cycle may increase [3] - In the context of rising global fragility, RMB assets may have relatively outstanding allocation value. It is suggested to focus on the two main lines of the RMB's phase appreciation and rising energy prices, and to conduct structural adjustments in the Chinese market on an annual basis [3] Group 2 - The report expresses a mid-term positive outlook on coal, new energy, agriculture, electricity, oil, and US capital goods related to inflation [3] - For the long term, the report favors insurance, central state-owned enterprises, anti-involution, and Chinese internet companies [3] Group 3 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve maintains a positive outlook on the resilience of the US economy, raising the GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 2.3% to 2.4%. However, inflation concerns have significantly increased, with the overall PCE inflation forecast for 2026 raised from 2.4% to 2.7% [8][10] - The report notes that the US AI infrastructure expansion is driving capital expenditure growth, but the commercialization process is relatively lagging, raising doubts about the sustainability of marginal capital returns [9]

Group 1 - The report analyzes the causes of stagflation in the 1970s, attributing it to three main factors: Keynesian monetary and fiscal policies, geopolitical conflicts affecting oil supply, and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system leading to dollar depreciation [2][15][21] - The report highlights that during the stagflation periods, major asset classes exhibited distinct performances, with U.S. equities experiencing significant declines in the first stagflation phase (1973-1974) and recovering in the second phase (1979-1980) [3][22][30] - The bond market saw a substantial rise in interest rates, entering a bear market, particularly during the second stagflation phase when the 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 15% due to aggressive monetary tightening [26][30] Group 2 - The report suggests that the current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. shows signs of potential stagflation, with high fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures, while China's economy is positioned for recovery and high-quality development [1][14][31] - Insights from the historical performance of Japanese and U.S. equities during stagflation are relevant for the current A-share market, indicating that A-shares may not directly correlate with U.S. stagflation risks and could showcase relative advantages [4][34][36] - The report emphasizes that the energy sector is likely to perform well in a stagflation environment, as seen in historical trends where energy companies significantly increased profits during oil crises [44] Group 3 - The technology sector may face overall adjustments, but strong industry trends are expected to persist, with a focus on companies with competitive advantages and pricing power in storage, advanced processes, and semiconductor materials [5][52][53] - Consumer sectors historically underperformed during stagflation, but the report suggests that A-share consumer performance may not be overly pessimistic due to stronger domestic fundamentals and energy advantages [54] - High-end manufacturing sectors are expected to maintain relative resilience, benefiting from structural advantages in the current economic landscape [5][43]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant divergence in expectations regarding the impact of the Iran conflict, with three core questions remaining unanswered until April: the extent of resumption of navigation after conflict intensity decreases, whether the Federal Reserve prioritizes inflation indicators or actual employment conditions, and whether China faces cost shocks or opportunities for supply chain shifts [1][14]. Group 1: Iran Conflict and Market Impact - There are two contrasting views on the Iran conflict: one suggests that the conflict's intensity has decreased and that navigation will resume, while the other argues that navigation has not yet recovered and supply chain disruptions are not fully reflected [2][16]. - As of March 19, 2026, only five vessels were passing through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating no signs of large-scale resumption of navigation, with daily passage numbers significantly lower than pre-conflict levels [5][19]. - The current oil tanker rental rates have surged from $10-20 per ton to $60-80 per ton, with some periods exceeding $90 per ton, marking a historical peak [5][19]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Focus - There are two opposing views regarding the Federal Reserve's focus: one suggests that inflation risks are increasing and liquidity is tightening, while the other argues that employment prospects are more significantly impacted by AI, making tightening unlikely [3][17]. - Following the March 18 Federal Reserve meeting, market data indicated that the implied number of rate cuts for the year remained low, between 0-1 [3][17]. - The employment market is showing signs of weakness, with negative job growth reported in February and downward revisions to previous employment data [6][20]. Group 3: China's Energy Dependency and Supply Chain Resilience - There are two perspectives on China's situation: one indicates that prolonged conflict will significantly impact China due to high oil import dependency, while the other suggests that China's supply chain resilience has improved, with a notable decrease in oil dependency [4][18]. - China's oil import dependency has decreased from 2.2% of GDP fifteen years ago to 1.7% currently, and existing reserves can meet over 90 days of consumption [4][18]. - China's energy diversification strategy has been long-term, with potential additional supply sources capable of covering risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz [4][18]. Group 4: Market Behavior and Future Outlook - The market has seen some short-term reduction in positions, particularly in sectors that had previously seen significant gains, with a notable divergence in performance among different sectors [8][22]. - The market's volatility is attributed more to absolute return funds reducing positions rather than institutional reallocation, with low-valuation stocks performing better than high-valuation stocks [8][22]. - The market is expected to remain in a narrative-driven phase until April, when key questions regarding the Iran conflict and its implications will begin to be answered [9][23].

Liquidity Data - The U.S. Dollar Index fell 1% from above 100 to 99.5[2] - Brent crude oil prices reached $104.4 per barrel[10] - Spot gold prices declined by 10.5% for the week, while silver dropped by 15.7%[10] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply by 9.5 basis points to 4.37%[12] Selected Research Highlights - Oil prices surged past $105 per barrel due to transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz[31] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a re-evaluation of the strategic value of the Western nuclear power supply chain[31] - The U.S. consumer sector is facing stagflation risks as oil prices rise and employment data falls short of expectations[38] - Qatar's LNG exports have significantly decreased, contributing to high natural gas prices[57]

Core Viewpoint - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is creating a supply crisis that the market has significantly underestimated, with the usual risk-averse logic potentially failing this time [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction and Supply Crisis - Financial markets are currently in a state of collective denial regarding the supply shock, with stock market reactions lagging significantly [2][6]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to last until at least the end of March, with an estimated loss of around 450 million barrels of oil supply, which will be permanently lost [3][10]. - The U.S. stock market's potential impact from this crisis is asymmetric, with energy companies valued at approximately $2 trillion, while sectors benefiting from low oil prices are valued over $30 trillion, indicating a significant short opportunity [6]. Group 2: Central Bank Dilemma - Central banks face a challenging situation with simultaneous inflation and recession risks, leading to a likely shift towards quantitative easing (QE) [7][8]. - The historical context suggests that following inflation with interest rate hikes could worsen the situation, reinforcing the likelihood of QE as a necessary response [8][9]. Group 3: Gold as a Hedge - Gold is currently not seen as an ideal hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation, facing selling pressure rather than buying interest before QE is implemented [3][12]. - The logic behind this is that during liquidity crises, gold is often sold off to meet financing needs, as evidenced by Poland's recent decision to sell part of its gold reserves [12]. - The optimal strategy is to short gold until QE is announced, after which it can be included in a long position [13][15]. Group 4: Broader Commodity Outlook - Other commodities such as Brent crude oil and copper are viewed more favorably compared to gold, with Brent crude expected to benefit directly from supply disruptions [13][16]. - The current situation is seen as a structural shift rather than a temporary shock, with a long-term impact on global energy supply chains and asset performance [14]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy includes going long on high-volatility assets and diversifying across commodity exposures, particularly in Brent crude and copper, while shorting airline stocks [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report If the war persists, asset pricing may shift from "inflation" to "imported inflation," and the market needs to distinguish between them. The report reviews three instances of imported inflation triggered by wars in the last century and three inflation patterns in China since 2020, offering insights for trading in imported inflation [6][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Imported Inflation Experiences - **First Oil Crisis (197310 - 197403)**: "Stagflation" emerged for the first time, with commodities leading in gains and smooth price transmission. The macro - trading clue shifted from "weak dollar" to "stagflation" trading. Commodities and the dollar rose, while U.S. stocks and bonds declined. Commodity price performance was energy > fertilizer > precious metals > base metals > agricultural products [21][23][26]. - **Second Oil Crisis (1979 - 1980)**: With recession as the cost of aggressive interest - rate hikes, the U.S. got out of the stagflation shadow, and U.S. stocks performed best. The market was more about marginal inflation trading. Stocks > commodities > dollar > U.S. bonds. Inflation transmission was not smooth within commodities [28][31][34]. - **Gulf War (199008 - 199101)**: It was a minor episode of "imported inflation" during the recession and interest - rate cut cycle, with bonds performing best and risk assets declining. Asset pricing was more like "recession" pricing [5][36][38]. Domestic Imported/Supply - Driven Inflation - **Three Phases since 2020**: They are the supply - driven inflation in the second half of 2021, the inflation triggered by the "Russia - Ukraine conflict" around March 2022, and the price rebound driven by "anti - involution" from July to October 2025. Commodities were dominant in all three phases, but the performance order of other assets varied. The impact of domestic imported or supply - driven inflation is relatively small, and it did not change the pricing logic of various assets [6][41][50]. Conclusion - **Asset Performance Patterns**: There is no unified pattern for the performance of major assets during imported inflation. The performance of major assets is related to the macro - environment, and the optimal asset in the portfolio could be stocks or bonds [52]. - **Sub - Asset Performance**: Energy commodities are relatively dominant, but the increase in crude oil prices is narrowing. Inflation transmission often fails to reach agricultural products. The longer the war lasts, the more unfavorable it is for non - ferrous metals. The logic of precious metals is relatively independent, and imported inflation has a catalytic impact on equity assets. Interest rates are affected by inflation expectations and monetary policies, and the domestic bond market is not sensitive to imported inflation [52][53][54].

Economic Data - In January-February, major economic indicators showed recovery, with industrial added value increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, up from 5.2% in the previous period [4] - Retail sales also improved, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% in January-February, compared to 0.9% previously [4] - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, a significant recovery from a decline of 3.8% in the previous period [4] Market Performance - Global equity markets mostly adjusted, with oil prices leading gains and gold and silver under pressure [5][9] - The S&P 500 and other major U.S. indices fell by 1%-3%, while the A-share market also saw a broad adjustment, with the small-cap index declining by 7.1% [2][5] - The communication sector led gains in the A-share market with a rise of 2.1%, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals saw declines exceeding 10% [9][10] Policy and Strategy - The report highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, which is impacting global energy supply and inflation expectations [2][3] - The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious stance, indicating that interest rate cuts will be conservative, with only one expected in 2026-2027 [2][3] - Domestic policies are focusing on financial strength and green energy transition, with initiatives to promote hydrogen energy and energy-efficient equipment [3] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that in the medium to long term, Chinese assets may benefit from their safe-haven attributes, particularly in sectors supported by policy and with clear growth prospects, such as energy, advanced manufacturing, and hard technology [3] - Attention is drawn to cyclical sectors benefiting from commodity price increases and strategic security needs, as well as advanced manufacturing sectors poised to benefit from global restocking [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower and experienced wide fluctuations on March 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 4015 points during the day [1][4] - The afternoon session saw the index maintain its oscillation, with sectors such as oil, coal, gas, and electricity performing well, while precious metals, non-ferrous metals, energy metals, and agricultural chemicals lagged [1][4] Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently 16.78 times and 48.70 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][5] - The total trading volume on March 19 was 21,275 billion yuan, which is above the median of the daily trading volume over the past three years [2][5] - Key pressures on the market stem from overseas factors, particularly escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have led to global market volatility and concerns over "stagflation" due to rising oil prices [2][5] - The expectation of delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased volatility in U.S. Treasury yields are putting valuation pressure on global equity assets, especially high-valuation technology growth stocks [2][5] - Domestic macroeconomic policy is becoming clearer, providing a solid bottom line for the market, with the central bank indicating a flexible approach to reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [2][5] - The market is expected to maintain a slight oscillation, and investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments [2][5] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in the electricity, coal, oil, and gas sectors [2][5]

伊朗军方最新发声！ 周末，伊朗局势又有新消息传来：伊朗军方消息人士称，伊朗的国产防空系统击中美军F-35战机。未来几天， 伊朗将展示其对抗敌人的新能力。 另据报道，一艘英国皇家海军核动力潜艇已抵达阿拉伯海。如得到英国首相授权，英军将向该潜艇下达开火命 令。 沙特阿拉伯外交部21日晚发表声明，要求伊朗武官在24小时内离开沙特。声明说，沙特谴责伊朗对沙特等地区 国家的袭击，"将毫不犹豫地采取一切必要措施，维护主权，保障国家安全"。 本周，高盛和花旗警告，若中东冲突持续，原油期货价格未来数周可能突破2008年创下的147.50美元/桶的历 史纪录。 伊朗：国产防空系统击中美军F-35战机 据新华社援引伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社21日报道，美军F-35战机系被伊朗国产防空系统击中。 稍早前，美国总统特朗普向伊朗发出威胁，要求伊朗在48小时内开放霍尔木兹海峡，否则将摧毁其各类发电 厂。 英国核动力潜艇抵达阿拉伯海 据央视新闻消息，当地时间21日晚，英国方面援引军方消息人士的话称，一艘英国皇家海军核动力潜艇已抵达 阿拉伯海，该潜艇具备发射巡航导弹的能力。 据了解，该潜艇为"安森"号，配备"战斧"导弹和"旗鱼"鱼雷，据信将部署在阿 ...