Core Points - The U.S. and EU have reached a significant breakthrough in trade negotiations, agreeing on a framework for a "Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade Agreement" [1][2] - The framework includes commitments from both sides regarding tariffs, market access, and investment, with the EU agreeing to eliminate tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods [5][6] - The U.S. will maintain a 15% tariff on most goods imported from the EU, with specific conditions for reducing auto tariffs [1][4] Tariff and Market Access - The EU will eliminate tariffs on all U.S. industrial products and provide better market access for various U.S. seafood and agricultural products [5] - The U.S. will apply the most favored nation (MFN) rate or a 15% tariff on goods from the EU, whichever is higher, starting from September 1, 2025, for certain products [5][6] - The U.S. has committed to reducing tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and wood products from the EU, ensuring rates do not exceed 15% [5][6] Procurement and Investment - The EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil, and nuclear products by 2028 [7] - The EU plans to invest $600 billion in strategic sectors in the U.S. by 2028, enhancing transatlantic economic cooperation [7] - Both parties will work to reduce non-tariff barriers, particularly in the automotive sector, and simplify sanitary certificate requirements for food and agricultural products [7] Environmental and Climate Change - The EU has promised to provide more flexibility in the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to support U.S. small and medium-sized enterprises [8] - The EU will ensure that sustainability directives do not impose undue restrictions on transatlantic trade [8]

Group 1 - The United States and the European Union have reached an agreement on a framework for a trade agreement, which includes 19 key points covering various sectors such as agriculture, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductors, energy, and digital trade barriers [4][5]. - The agreement specifies that the U.S. will not impose tariffs exceeding 15% on most EU goods, including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and wood products [6]. - The EU has committed to eliminating tariffs on all U.S. industrial products and providing preferential market access for a wide range of U.S. seafood and agricultural products [6][10]. Group 2 - The U.S. and EU aim to enhance mutual investment, with total investments exceeding $5 trillion, and European companies expected to invest an additional $600 billion in strategic sectors in the U.S. by 2028 [7]. - The EU plans to significantly increase its procurement of military and defense equipment from the U.S. and both parties have agreed to work on reducing non-tariff barriers [7]. - The U.S. and EU are committed to addressing unreasonable digital trade barriers and recognizing each other's standards in the automotive sector [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trade agreement framework reached between the United States and the European Union, highlighting key areas of cooperation and tariff adjustments across various sectors [3]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Framework - The trade agreement framework includes 19 key points covering agricultural products, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductor chips, energy, EU investments in the US, environmental regulations, cybersecurity agreements, and digital trade barriers [3]. - The EU will eliminate tariffs on all US industrial products and provide preferential market access for various US agricultural products, including nuts, dairy, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, seeds, soybean oil, and meat products [4]. - The EU will extend the terms regarding lobster from the 2020 agreement, which was set to expire in July 2025, and expand the product range to include processed lobster [4]. Group 2: Tariff Adjustments - The US will apply the higher of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on most EU goods, which includes automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips, and timber [5][6]. - Starting September 1, 2025, the US will only apply MFN tariffs to certain products from the EU, including non-renewable natural resources, all aircraft and aircraft parts, generic drugs, and their raw materials [6]. Group 3: Energy and Investment Commitments - The EU plans to purchase US energy products, including liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products, with expected purchases reaching $750 billion by 2028 [7]. - The EU commits to acquiring at least $40 billion worth of US artificial intelligence chips for the construction of data centers in Europe [7]. - European companies are expected to invest an additional $600 billion in strategic sectors in the US by 2028 [7]. Group 4: Future Cooperation - The EU will continue discussions with the US to negotiate further tariff reductions and identify additional areas for cooperation [9]. - The European Commission will initiate the implementation of the agreement's main content with the support of EU member states and the European Parliament [9].

Core Viewpoint - The United States and the European Union have reached a significant agreement on a trade framework, which includes a unified tariff structure and commitments for mutual trade benefits [2][4]. Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Framework - The trade agreement framework consists of 19 key points covering various sectors, including agricultural products, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductor chips, energy, and digital trade barriers [4]. - The U.S. will impose a 15% uniform tariff on most EU imports, while the EU will eliminate all tariffs on U.S. industrial products [2][4]. Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. will reduce tariffs on European automobiles from the current 27.5% to 15% once the EU submits the necessary legislative proposals [5][6]. - The agreement allows for potential retroactive tariff reductions for automobile manufacturers, contingent on the EU's legislative actions [6]. EU Commitments - The EU will procure $750 billion worth of U.S. liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products by 2028, along with an additional $400 billion in U.S. AI chips [8]. - The EU will also provide preferential market access for various U.S. agricultural products, including nuts, dairy, and meat [8]. Investment and Cooperation - EU companies plan to invest an additional $600 billion in strategic sectors in the U.S. by 2028, highlighting a commitment to deepen cooperation in energy security and high-tech supply chains [8]. - Both parties have agreed to address unreasonable digital trade barriers and ensure that the benefits of the agreement are shared primarily between the U.S. and the EU [8]. Future Negotiations - The agreement is designed to be expandable, allowing for the inclusion of more sectors in the future to improve market access [9]. - The EU will work with member states and the European Parliament to implement the agreement and negotiate a fair and balanced trade accord with the U.S. [10].

Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 21, gold prices experienced a sudden drop, with London gold falling over $20, settling at $3331.38 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.5% [1] Group 2: US-EU Trade Agreement - On August 21, the White House announced that the US and EU reached an agreement on a trade framework, which includes 19 key points covering various sectors such as agricultural products, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductor chips, energy, and digital trade barriers [3] - The agreement stipulates that the EU will eliminate tariffs on all US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US agricultural products, including nuts, dairy, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, seeds, soybean oil, and meat products [3] - The US will apply the higher of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on most goods from the EU, which includes automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber [3] Group 3: Future Tariff Adjustments - Starting September 1, 2025, the US will only apply MFN tariffs to certain EU products, including non-renewable natural resources, all aircraft and aircraft parts, and generic drugs and their raw materials [4] - The US and EU have agreed to consider additional sectors and products that are important to their economies and value chains for inclusion under MFN tariffs [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Impact - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated concerns among officials regarding the inflation outlook in the US, leading to reduced market expectations for a rate cut in September [5] - The minutes revealed that many officials noted the overall inflation rate in the US remains above the long-term target of 2%, with tariff impacts becoming more evident in economic data [6] - During the July monetary policy meeting, 9 out of 12 voting members supported maintaining interest rates, while two members expressed differing opinions on the decision, marking a notable occurrence in over 30 years [6]

而中国不买美国大豆，也不是赌气，而是我们能七年磨一剑的战略突围。2024年那1.05亿吨进口大豆 中，71%来自巴西，美国份额已萎缩到21%。当特朗普还在幻想"四倍订单"时，中国技术代表团正飞往 巴西推动"零毁林"认证协议，未来贴个环保标签，巴西大豆就能溢价20%进入中国高端市场，而美国大 豆连参赛资格都没有。 特朗普的深夜喊话暴露了政治焦虑，农业州是共和党铁票仓，可仓库里积压的2200万吨大豆正在发霉。 美国大豆协会的哀鸣道破天机："中国市场无可替代，其规模是所有其他市场总和的3倍"。2018年贸易 战曾让共和党丢掉众议院，如今历史似乎要重演。 随着大豆收获季节临近，美国农民欲哭无泪。由于特朗普政府的关税政策，中国已经放弃了美国大豆， 改从南美国家进口。 据巴西咨询机构介绍，中国已经提前锁定9月约800万吨、10月约400万吨的大豆供应。去年此时，中国 采购了美国700万吨大豆；今年，这个数字是零。 最直接的因素，自然是价格。中国对美国大豆加征的关税，让美豆到岸价比巴西大豆每吨足足贵了47美 元。这相当于在山东港口，巴西大豆卖4200元/吨，而美国大豆要4800元。更扎心的是运输成本：巴西 大豆25天就能到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States and the European Union have reached an agreement on a trade framework that includes various sectors such as agriculture, industrial products, and energy, aiming to enhance trade relations and reduce tariffs [1][10]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The trade agreement framework consists of 19 key points covering agricultural products, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductor chips, energy, EU investments in the US, environmental regulations, cybersecurity agreements, and digital trade barriers [1]. - The EU will eliminate tariffs on all US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US agricultural products, including nuts, dairy, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, seeds, soybean oil, and meat products [4][3]. - The US will apply either the most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on EU-origin goods, with specific products like non-renewable natural resources, aircraft, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals being subject to MFN tariffs starting September 1, 2025 [6][5]. Group 2: Energy and Investment Commitments - The EU plans to purchase US energy products, including liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products, with expected purchases reaching $750 billion by 2028 [8]. - The EU will also commit to acquiring at least $400 billion worth of US artificial intelligence chips for the construction of data centers in Europe [8]. - European companies are expected to invest an additional $600 billion in strategic sectors in the US by 2028 [8]. Group 3: Future Negotiations - The EU will continue discussions with the US to agree on further tariff reductions and identify additional areas for cooperation [10]. - The EU Commission will initiate the implementation of the agreement's main content with the support of EU member states and the European Parliament [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish/Short-term Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Pigs, Eggs (★☆☆), indicating a bias towards a rising or falling trend with drivers for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market [1]. - **Balanced/Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil (☆☆☆), suggesting short - term supply - demand balance and poor market operability, advising to wait and see [1]. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather, policies, and international trade situations. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Summary by Product Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures is weak due to increased supply from auctions and weak demand. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is rising. Attention should be paid to weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - In the next two weeks, low temperature and less rain in the US soybean - producing areas pose challenges to new - season crops. The global oil market's strength may boost soybean crushing. In China, the supply in Q4 and Q1 next year is affected by US tariff policies, with a possible supply gap in Q1 next year. The medium - long - term outlook for soybean meal is cautiously bullish [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic soybean and palm oil prices are in a correction. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in June. The market is concerned about the US EPA's decision on biofuel exemptions, which has pressured US soybean oil prices. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The supply side of the overseas rapeseed market is stabilizing, and the focus is shifting to the demand side. China's imports of Australian rapeseed are a hot topic. The supply of rapeseed is likely to be tight in Q4, and the futures price is expected to rise [5]. Corn - Cofco will continue to auction imported corn. The previous auctions had a low transaction rate. The supply of corn in Shandong is relatively sufficient. New - season Xinjiang corn is affecting market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [6]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures are in a weak oscillation. The supply in the second half of the year is high, and the price is expected to decline. Policy may support the price at a certain level. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when the price is high [7]. Eggs - Egg futures have reached a new low. The spot price is weak, and the futures price is still at a premium. The far - month contracts for the first half of next year are strong. Attention should be paid to the spot price and capacity reduction [8].

看来前几天中方对加拿大的反制还是没让他们痛改前非，仗着中国一时间找不到产品的替代品仍旧对中国耀武扬威。 不过，中国并没有给他们翻盘的机会，转头就将260亿的油菜籽大单递给了澳大利亚，加拿大估计要哭晕在被窝了。 那么，澳大利亚是怎么和中国建立联系的，加拿大又为什么在一开始死不悔改？这对全球贸易市场又有怎样的启示？ 1、坚决反制，加拿大的惩罚来了 如今的加拿大可以用不见棺材不落泪来形容了，有了中国高达75.8%的保证金征收之后还死不悔改，依旧断定中国不会离他们的油菜籽而去，真是过于自信 了。 一直以来。中国对于那些危害中国利益的国家一个都没有轻放，对于加拿大这样一直帮助美国对立中国的国家更是如此。 所以，在中美关税战暂时休战之后，中国立刻就对包括加拿大在内的几个国家进行的坚决反制，不过没想到，加拿大还是那么头铁。 而他们之所以这么硬气的原因，不就是因为断定中国一时间难以找到加拿大油菜籽的替代来源吗？那中国就给他们露一手看看。 在对加拿大油菜籽发起反制的一周之后，中国相关国企已经订购了一批来自澳大利亚的新季油菜籽，最快十月就能上市。 这样算下来，似乎并不影响中国对油菜籽的供应需求，加拿大似乎一下子就慌了。但这个时候 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on oils and fats as the bullish drivers are temporarily unfalsifiable [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report presents price changes of 24 - degree palm oil, first - grade soybean oil, and fourth - grade rapeseed oil in different regions on August 20, 2025, compared to August 19, 2025, with most showing a downward trend [1] - Due to the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic far - month rapeseed procurement progress is slow, and there are concerns about future rapeseed supply. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August are about 200,000 tons, and the average monthly arrivals from September to October are about 130,000 tons [2] - The USDA report adjusted the US soybean new - crop area and yield. Although the yield per acre was raised to a historical high, the planting area was unexpectedly reduced, resulting in a lower - than - expected production [2] - The weather in the US in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean yield, and the good - to - excellent rates of US soybeans and corn are in line with market expectations [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Spot Price - 24 - degree palm oil: On August 20, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9,660, 9,540, and 9,510 respectively, down 200 from August 19 [1] - First - grade soybean oil: On August 20, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8,510, 8,630, and 8,610 respectively, down 200 from August 19 [1] - Fourth - grade rapeseed oil: On August 20, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9,900, 9,950, and 10,160 respectively, down 130 from August 19 [1] Futures Data - The price difference between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 1,140 on August 20, 2025, down 26 from August 19 [1] - The price difference between rapeseed and soybean main contracts was 1,414 on August 20, 2025, up 90 from August 19 [1] - Palm oil warehouse receipts were 1,404 on August 20, 2025, down 16 from August 19; soybean oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 15,310; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,487 [1] Rapeseed - related Information - The Ministry of Commerce preliminarily ruled that there was dumping of imported Canadian rapeseed, and from August 14, 2025, importers need to pay a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed [2] Palm Oil - related Information - Bloomberg's July MPOB forecast: Palm oil production increased 8.3% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports increased 3.2% to 1.3 million tons, local consumption was 250,000 - 450,000 tons, and inventory increased 10% to 2.23 million tons [2] - In Malaysia, from August 1 - 5, palm oil yield per unit decreased 17.27% month - on - month, and from August 1 - 10, exports increased 23.3% (ITS) and 23.7% (AmSpec) compared to the same period last month [2] Soybean - related Information - The USDA report raised the US soybean yield per acre to 53.6 bushels/acre but cut the 2025/26 planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, resulting in a 43 - million - bushel reduction in production to 4.292 billion bushels [2] - As of the week ending August 10, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, and that of US corn was 72%, both in line with market expectations [2]