| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 玉米现货报价偏强运行，周末东北玉米价格偏强运行为主，东北深加工玉米收购 价格上涨对行情仍有一定的支撑，基层农户惜售情绪较为明显。 周末山东玉米 供应市场，短期市场情绪看涨预期较强，预计随着本地粮源供应量逐渐增加，华 | 震荡上涨 | | | 周一，玉米近月 2601 和 2603 合约先跌后涨，期价当日下探后尾盘收复部分失地。 | | | | 价格整体维持稳定，部分企业玉米价格有涨有跌，调整范围有限。东北粮源持续 | | | | 北玉米供应紧张的局面有望得到缓解。 周末销区市场玉米价格坚挺运行。港口 | | | | 贸易商报价保持高位，但市场整体购销活跃度一般，高价成交偏少。下游饲料厂 | | | | 观望心态为主，维持 30-40 天安全头寸滚动补库。技术上，现货玉米报价延续强 | | | | 势表现，期价震荡调整。12 月警惕玉米期、现报价持续调整，短多注意设置动 | | | | 态止盈。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆收跌，因市场关注出口销售数据。USDA 检验报告显示，美豆 口销售报告显示，截至 10 月 2 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 壬凌旋 Z0019938 2025年12月2日 | | 臣阳 | | 上升至10.53亿磅。目前交易商密切关注美国环保署关于2026年生物燃料橡浪义务的 | | 8610 现价 江苏一级 8560 50 0.58% | | 期价 Y2601 8288 8244 44 0.53% | | 墓差 Y2601 322 316 6 1.90% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 01+280 01+270 10 - | | 仓单 2469 0 2469 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | 12月1日 11月28日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8570 8570 0 0.00% | | 期价 P2601 8652 8626 26 0.30% | | 基差 P2601 -82 -56 -26 -46.43% | | 现货墓差报价 广东1月 01-30 01-30 0 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1月 9077.0 8995.0 82.0 0.91% | | 采购大豆、小麦和高粱,为市场带来新的需求预期。但是考虑 ...

从"支撑力"来看，外贸对地方经济的贡献度持续凸显，出口额占地区生产总值(GDP)比重连续多年超 40%，稳居全省首位。从"动力源"来看，市场主体活力不断释放，全市有进出口实绩的企业数量突破 5000家，创历史新高。从"融合度"来看，深化"贸易与产业"双向赋能、互促共进，培育出纺织服装、消 费电子、橡胶轮胎、船舶与海工装备、打印机、农产品等百亿级外贸产业集群，产业链、供应链增值空 间持续拓展，抗风险能力显著提升。 齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点连宁燕 作为全国首批沿海开放城市和山东对外开放的前沿阵地，外贸始终是拉动威海经济增长的重要引擎，畅 通国内国际双循环的关键枢纽。"十四五"期间，威海市商务系统锚定推动外贸高质量发展这一目标，在 稳规模、优结构、促创新上精准发力，推动外贸实现量质齐升，交出了一份亮眼答卷。 规模增长"稳中有进"，展现强劲韧性 "十四五"期间，在全球疫情冲击、贸易摩擦加剧以及产供链重构等内外多重压力下，威海外贸逆势上 扬，展现出强劲的发展韧性和动能。全市进出口总额连续4年站稳2000亿元台阶，2024年达到2040.2亿 元，较"十三五"末的2020年增长26.4%，圆满完成了"十四五"规划目标。 业态创 ...

据农业农村部监测，12月1日"农产品批发价格200指数"为127.53，比上周五上升1.04个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为129.96，比上周五上升1.20个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.80元/公斤，比上周五下降0.2%； 牛肉66.58元/公斤，比上周五上升0.1%；羊肉63.40元/公斤，比上周五上升0.4%；鸡蛋7.33元/公斤，比上周五下降 0.3%；白条鸡17.89元/公斤，比上周五上升1.8%。 市场分析 农产品日报 | 2025-12-02 消费有所回暖，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11495元/吨，较前交易日变动+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.26%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.42元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-75，较前交易日变动+150；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.64元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.09元/公斤，现货基差LH01+145，较前交易日变动+230；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.50元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH01+5，较前交易日变 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information is provided in the given content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints Oils and Fats - The domestic soybean oil fundamentals remain bearish, but the high cost of imported soybeans, weak performance of soybean meal, and reluctance of oil mills to lower basis quotes will keep basis quotes stable. The final decision of the US EPA on the biofuel obligation in 2026 will be a key factor affecting the long - term demand for soybean oil. Palm oil prices are under pressure from potential inventory growth due to increased production and slow exports. The Dalian palm oil futures will choose a new breakthrough direction, and the trend of Malaysian palm oil will have an impact on it [1]. Meals - The domestic soybean meal supply remains loose. Although downstream feed enterprises are replenishing their inventories from January to March and there is continuous procurement of US soybeans, it is difficult to see an upward trend in the market. The impact of domestic policy - based procurement on US soybeans is uncertain, and the soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile with dull short - term trading [2]. Pigs - At the beginning of the month, the supply from the breeding side decreased, and there was reluctance to sell, but the downstream slaughter volume was limited, resulting in a basically balanced market supply and demand. In December, the supply is expected to increase, and the pig price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile structure. The market should pay attention to the rhythm of pressure release at the end of the year. The price of large pigs is not promising, and second - round fattening should enter the market cautiously. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can continue to be held, and the single - side price is expected to continue to bottom out [4]. Corn - In the short term, due to the mismatch between supply and demand, the futures price remains firm, but the supply pressure has not been released, so the price increase is limited, and the overall performance is a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rhythm of corn supply [7]. Sugar - Affected by the supply outlook and weak technical aspects, the ICE raw sugar futures fell sharply. The new sugar in Guangxi has entered the market, driving down the price of Yunnan sugar. Although processed sugar and beet sugar are impacted to some extent, their prices are relatively firm, providing support for the price of new sugar in Guangxi. After the pre - sold sugar sources are sold out, the market is expected to rise, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [11]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures fell. The Zhengzhou cotton futures face hedging pressure when rising, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand - side textile enterprises' procurement of cotton is dull, but the pre - sold cotton is being delivered successively, which eases the short - term supply pressure. The basis of spot sales is firm, and the Zhengzhou cotton has strong support below. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate in a slightly stronger range [12]. Eggs - The number of newly - laid hens remains low, and the number of old hens being slaughtered has increased significantly. As a result, the inventory of laying hens has entered a downward channel, and the production capacity is shrinking. The market supply pressure has been improved. The egg price has dropped to a phased low, and downstream buyers are replenishing their stocks. The spot price of eggs may rebound slightly, but considering the overall pressure, the futures price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8560 yuan, up 50 yuan or 0.58% from the previous value; the futures price of Y2601 is 8288 yuan, up 44 yuan or 0.53%; the basis of Y2601 is 322 yuan, up 6 yuan or 1.90%. The US used 1053 million pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production in September [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8570 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of P2601 is 8652 yuan, up 26 yuan or 0.30%; the basis of P2601 is - 82 yuan, down 26 yuan or 46.43%. The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in January is 9077 yuan, up 82 yuan or 0.91% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10080 yuan, down 30 yuan or 0.30%; the futures price of OI601 is 9770 yuan, up 13 yuan or 0.13%; the basis of OI601 is 310 yuan, down 43 yuan or 12.18% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) is 202 yuan, down 2 yuan or 0.98%; the palm oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) is - 52 yuan, up 6 yuan or 11.54%; the soybean - palm oil spread of 2601 is - 612 yuan, up 26 yuan or 4.08%; the rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the spot market is 1470 yuan, down 80 yuan or 5.16%; the rapeseed - soybean oil spread of 2601 is 1482 yuan, down 31 yuan or 2.05% [1]. Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The current price of soybean meal in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.99%; the futures price of M2601 is 3039 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 0.16%; the basis of M2601 is 21 yuan, up 35 yuan or 250.00%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's盘面 import profit is 22 yuan, up 8 yuan or 57.1% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan, down 40 yuan or - 1.63%; the futures price of RM2601 is 2423 yuan, down 29 yuan or - 1.18%; the basis of RM2601 is - 3 yuan, down 11 yuan or - 137.50%. The盘面 import profit of Canadian rapeseed with a 1 - month shipping schedule is 664 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 3.77% [2]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of soybeans in Harbin is 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 4126 yuan, up 18 yuan or 0.44%; the basis of the main soybean contract is - 186 yuan, down 18 yuan or - 10.71%. The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3950 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract is 3766 yuan, up 6 yuan or 0.16%; the basis of the main soybean - two contract is 184 yuan, down 6 yuan or - 3.16% [2]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - month spread (01 - 05) is 204 yuan, up 5 yuan or 2.51%; the rapeseed meal inter - month spread (01 - 05) is 20 yuan, down 17 yuan or - 45.95%; the oil - meal ratio in the spot market is 2.81, down 0.011 or - 0.40%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.73, up 0.019 or 0.70%; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market is 640 yuan, up 70 yuan or 12.28%; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2601 is 616 yuan, up 24 yuan or 4.05% [2]. Pigs - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract of live pigs 2605 is 11925 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 0.08%; the basis of live pigs 2601 is 11495 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.26%; the spread between live pigs 1 - 5 is - 430 yuan, up 40 yuan or 8.51%. The position of the main contract is 101740, down 5802 or - 5.40% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 11400 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Shandong is 11550 yuan, up 200 yuan; in Liaoning is 11300 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong is 12310 yuan, up 900 yuan; in Hunan is 11210 yuan, up 300 yuan; in Hebei is 11450 yuan, up 50 yuan [4]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 208687, down 1528 or - 0.73%; the weekly white - strip price is 18.28 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly piglet price is 17.00 yuan, down 0.5 yuan or - 2.86%; the weekly sow price is 32.47 yuan, unchanged; the weekly average slaughter weight is 129.22 kg, up 0.4 kg or 0.32%; the weekly self - breeding profit is - 148 yuan/head, down 12.1 yuan or - 8.90%; the weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 249 yuan/head, down 14.2 yuan or - 6.05%; the monthly inventory of fertile sows is 39900000 heads, down 450000 heads or - 1.12% [4]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2601 is 2236 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 0.36%; the basis of the Jinzhou Port flat - warehouse price is 2290 yuan, unchanged; the spread between corn 1 - 5 is - 37 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 15.63%. The Shekou bulk grain price is 2440 yuan, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 54 yuan, unchanged; the CIF price is 2022 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 0.03%; the import profit is 418 yuan, up 1 yuan or 0.15%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 819, up 145 or 17.70%; the inventory is 2235598, up 27399 or 1.24%; the number of warehouse receipts is 60215, unchanged [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2601 is 2542 yuan, down 24 yuan or - 0.94%; the spot price in Changchun is 2590 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2800 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 48 yuan, up 24 yuan or 100.00%. The spread between corn starch 1 - 5 is - 74 yuan, down 11 yuan or - 17.46%; the spread between the starch - corn 01 contract on the disk is 306 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 4.97%; the profit of Shandong's starch enterprises is - 6 yuan, down 7 yuan or - 700.00%. The position is 326685, down 3818 or - 1.16%; the number of warehouse receipts is N/A [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 is 5405 yuan, up 5 yuan or 0.09%; the futures price of sugar 2605 is 5333 yuan, up 6 yuan or 0.11%; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.74 cents/pound, down 0.47 cents or - 3.09%. The spread between sugar 1 - 5 is 72 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 1.37%. The position of the main contract is 350573, down 10944 or - 3.03%; the number of warehouse receipts is 0; the number of valid forecasts is 183, unchanged [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 5440 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 0.18%; the spot price in Kunming is 5430 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 0.18%. The basis in Nanning is 107 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 13.01%; the basis in Kunming is 97 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 14.16%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) is 4172 yuan, up 15 yuan or 0.36%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) is 5289 yuan, up 18 yuan or 0.34%. The spread between imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) and Nanning is - 1268 yuan, up 25 yuan or 1.93%; the spread between imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) and Nanning is - 151 yuan, up 28 yuan or 15.64% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons or 12.03%; the cumulative national sugar sales is 1048.00 million tons, up 88.00 million tons or 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons or 4.59%; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 26.66 million tons, down 18.68 million tons or - 41.20%. The cumulative national sugar sales rate is 93.90%, down 2.51 percentage points or - 2.60%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 93.90%, up 4.30 percentage points or 4.80%. The industrial sugar inventory in the US is 68.21 million tons, down 47.79 million tons or - 41.20%; the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi is 44.21 million tons, up 17.07 million tons or 62.90%; the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan is 33.65 million tons, up 7.07 million tons or 26.60%. The sugar import volume is 55.00 million tons, up 15.00 million tons or 37.50% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2601 is 13765 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.29%; the futures price of cotton 2605 is 13725 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.29%; the ICE US cotton main contract is 64.64 cents/pound, down 0.09 cents or - 0.14%. The spread between cotton 5 - 1 is - 40 yuan, unchanged. The position of the main contract is 546943, down 1275 or - 0.21%; the number of warehouse receipts is 2403, down 5; the number of valid forecasts is 1884, up 1621 [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 14763 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.27%; the CC Index: 3128B is 14896 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.27%. The FC Index:M: 1% is 12956 yuan, up 21 yuan or 0.16%. The spread between 3128B and the 01 contract is 1038 yuan, unchanged; the spread between 3128B and the 05 contract is 998 yuan, unchanged; the spread between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% is 1930 yuan, up 19 yuan or 0.97% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 363.97 million tons, up 70.91 million tons or 24.2%; the industrial

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI contracted, with a reading of 48.2, falling short of market expectations and remaining in the contraction zone for the ninth consecutive month. This has implications for the US economy and various financial and commodity markets [12][16][20]. - The expectation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest - rate hike has increased, affecting market risk appetite, causing stocks and commodities to retreat after an initial rise, and keeping the short - term gold price within a volatile range [2][13]. - In the commodity market, different products show different trends. For example, steel prices are oscillating stronger, copper prices are expected to continue to rise in an oscillating manner, and PTA is in a tight - balance state at the end of the year [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, worse than expected and in contraction for nine consecutive months. The BOJ governor's hawkish remarks boosted the expectation of a December rate hike, causing stocks and commodities to fall back. Short - term gold prices are still in a volatile range [12][13]. - Investment advice: Short - term gold price trends are volatile, with increased fluctuations. Be aware of correction risks [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is closely monitoring the commercial real estate exposure of community and regional banks. The US factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in four months, with the manufacturing index dropping to 48.2 [15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to continue to decline in the short term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The BOJ governor signaled a clear interest - rate hike, leading to a rise in Japanese government bond yields and a squeeze on the profit margin of yen carry trades. The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI contracted, indicating weak manufacturing performance [19][20]. - Investment advice: The market will experience increased short - term volatility, but maintain a generally bullish outlook [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The approval of public - offering fund products has started a counter - cyclical adjustment mechanism. A - shares had a good start in December, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.31% [22][23]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices [24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan. The bond market had a weak rebound, but there is no basis for continuous strengthening [25][26]. - Investment advice: There may be short - term repairs, but the market remains bearish [27]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In November 2025, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.0175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.24%. The soybean meal inventory reached 1.2032 million tons, the highest in the same period in history. The future weather and South American production expectations are important variables [28][29]. - Investment advice: Cost support and supply - demand constraints coexist. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile. Continue to monitor China's actual purchases of US soybeans, state reserve trends, and South American weather [29]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in November increased by 4.78% year - on - year, indicating that the domestic construction machinery market is in a recovery phase. Tangshan had illegal steel projects, and steel prices are expected to continue to rise slightly in an oscillating manner, but the upside space is limited [30][31][32]. - Investment advice: In the short term, steel prices are expected to rise slightly and remain volatile [33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports in November decreased by 19.68% month - on - month, and production decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. Heavy rain affected the palm oil harvest, and the market expects November to continue to accumulate inventory [34][35]. - Investment advice: Palm oil is expected to remain in the range of 8,500 - 8,700 yuan, waiting for data guidance [36]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the central - southern market remained stable. The supply is gradually recovering, but the recovery is slow. The demand is weakening, with iron - water production continuing to decline [37]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the market will be mainly volatile [37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on December 1, 2025, were 30 yuan/ton, - 43 yuan/ton, 97 yuan/ton, and - 6 yuan/ton respectively. The demand for corn starch has recovered, and the supply pressure is expected to remain low [38]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy for the rice - flour price difference [39]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On December 1, the domestic corn average price was 2,292 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton. The spot market is strong, while the futures market is falling back. The 01 contract is not suitable for short - selling, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities for the 03 contract [40][41]. - Investment advice: Do not short the 01 contract. Consider short - selling the 03 contract on rallies with a light position. Pay attention to the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads [41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company signed an iron - ore purchase contract with Trafigura. The iron - ore price remains high and volatile, with the inventory expected to increase by 10 million tons to 160 million tons in December [42]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile, with limited upside potential [42]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - South Africa's coal exports in October were 7.2052 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.18%. After the replenishment, the steam - coal price has fallen back, and it is expected to remain high and volatile in December - January [43]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain high and volatile and decline seasonally from December to January [43]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin and trading limit for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract. The polysilicon supply - demand contradiction has worsened, and the battery - sheet price has continued to fall [44][45][46]. - Investment advice: The futures price may fall significantly, but the spot price is expected to remain flat. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A company plans to build 28 33MVA submerged - arc furnaces. The industrial silicon inventory is increasing, and the market is expected to be volatile between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [47][49]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to be volatile between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Look for range - trading opportunities [49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Minmetals Resources' Izok Corridor project exploration made progress, and a copper smelter in Kamoa - Kakula was ignited. The macro - level support may weaken, but the domestic inventory reduction boosts bullish sentiment [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to continue to rise in an oscillating manner. Recommend buying on dips. Pay attention to the widening of the C - L spread [52]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A 60,000 - ton power - battery recycling project in Yichang was launched. The production of lithium carbonate decreased last week, and the demand in the off - season may weaken. The inventory reduction rate is expected to slow down in December [53][54]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling on rallies in the short term and buying on dips after the off - season risks are released [54]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the social lead inventory reached a one - month low. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented. The lead price is expected to rise, and consider buying on dips [55][56][57]. - Investment advice: Consider buying lead on dips in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and cross - border trades [57]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the LME zinc inventory increased. A zinc - lead mine in Bejaia is planned to start production. The zinc price is expected to be bullish, but there are risks of low market attention and macro - level fluctuations [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: Look for buying opportunities on dips. Hold long positions in the calendar spread. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for cross - border trades [60]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Qingmeibang nickel project's production is normal in December. The refined nickel supply is expected to be in surplus, but the market is undervalued. Consider buying on dips [61][62]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips with a light position. Evaluate the impact of Indonesian resource contraction in the medium term [62]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin showed a premium. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. The overseas supply may be affected by geopolitical risks, and the downstream demand is weak [63]. - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. Consider buying on dips but avoid chasing the market [63]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and the cost is supported by geopolitical factors. Pay attention to the winter - storage policy [64][65]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short term [66]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound - fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased to 37.06%. The urea futures price rebounded, and the inventory decreased. The demand is the key factor for the future price [66][67]. - Investment advice: The reduction of urea inventory strengthens the support for the futures price. Pay attention to the macro - level driving force after December [68]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure - benzene inventory in East China increased. The styrene and pure - benzene prices are oscillating. The demand is weak, but there are expectations of supply reduction. Pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [69][71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the implementation of pure - benzene maintenance plans. Consider buying far - month contracts on dips if there is a panic sell - off in December [72]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price increased, and the market negotiation was light. The supply decreased due to plant maintenance, and the demand remained stable. The year - end supply - demand is in a tight - balance state [73]. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - term strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to the crude - oil price risk. Consider long positions in the PTA 5 - 9 spread and PTA - oil spread [74]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic - soda price in Shandong decreased. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The downstream alumina market has a negative impact on caustic - soda demand [75][76]. - Investment advice: The caustic - soda market will be weak in the short term. Pay attention to whether profit compression will lead to supply reduction [76]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle - chip factory export prices increased. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is high. The price follows the polyester raw - material price [77][78]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip supply - demand contradiction is not prominent in the short term. The price follows the polyester raw - material price [78]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash factory inventory decreased slightly. The Far Xing Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the supply. The demand from the float - glass industry has decreased [79][80]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish view on soda ash in the medium term. Consider shorting far - month contracts on rallies [80]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float - glass price in Hubei increased slightly. The futures price decreased, and the inventory is still high. The short - term rebound space is limited [81]. - Investment advice: Be cautious and wait - and - see. Adopt a bearish view in the medium term and consider shorting on rallies [81]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The acquisition of a Spanish terminal by Hutchison Ports is blocked. The container freight rate is expected to be volatile, and there is a lack of strong bullish factors [82][83]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term [84].

Group 1: Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending November 27, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 920,194 tons, at the lower end of the estimated range, compared to 2,110,449 tons in the same period in 2024. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 11,867,705 tons, compared to 21,817,878 tons in the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending October 23, U.S. current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 1.4498 million tons, in line with expectations, with exports loaded at 1.3882 million tons. The current - market - year new sales were 1.544 million tons, and next - market - year new sales were 0 tons [1]. - As of the week ending October 23, U.S. current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 640,000 tons, higher than expected, with exports loaded at 319,700 tons. The current - market - year new sales were 706,800 tons, and next - market - year new sales were 0 tons [1]. Group 2: Brazil's Soybean Production Forecasts - PatriaAgronegocios slightly raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 171.89 million tons, a 0.2% increase from the mid - November estimate and a 1.4% expansion from 2024/25. The sown area is expected to reach 48.58 million hectares, a 0.9% increase from the previous estimate [1]. - StoneX lowered Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 177.2 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from its November estimate, due to reduced output potential in major producing states [1]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing area reached 89% of the expected area, behind last year's 91%. The core south - central region completed 99% of the first - season sowing, higher than 97% last year [1]. Group 3: Malaysia's Palm Oil Data - In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield down 2.09% and oil extraction rate up 0.36% [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports in November 2025 were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.9% decrease from October [1]. Group 4: Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are provided [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils being weakly volatile, and agricultural by - products and soft commodities maintaining a volatile pattern. For example, soft commodity sugar shows a slight fluctuation, while cotton is in a weak consolidation state, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation [2]. - It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various agricultural product options' underlying futures contracts are presented. For instance, the latest price of soybeans (A2601) is 4,141, with a price increase of 23 and a price change rate of 0.56%, a trading volume of 84,000 lots, a volume decrease of 19,600 lots, an open interest of 188,200 lots, and an open interest decrease of 2,200 lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various agricultural product options are provided. For example, for soybean options, the trading volume is 35,896, with a volume decrease of 12,647, an open interest of 97,502, an open interest increase of 744, a trading volume PCR of 0.88, a volume PCR increase of 0.23, an open interest PCR of 0.98, and an open interest PCR change of 0 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The underlying contracts, at - the - money strike prices, pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interests, and maximum put option open interests of various agricultural product options are given. For example, for soybean options (A2601), the at - the - money strike price is 4,150, the pressure point is 4,200 with an offset of 0, the support point is 4,000 with an offset of 0, the maximum call option open interest is 6,822, and the maximum put option open interest is 7,405 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and implied - historical volatility difference of various agricultural product options are presented. For example, for soybean options, the at - the - money implied volatility is 11.355, the weighted implied volatility is 11.92, with a decrease of 0.47, the annual average implied volatility is 12.82, the call option implied volatility is 12.35, the put option implied volatility is 11.42, the historical 20 - day volatility is 12.07, and the implied - historical volatility difference is - 0.72 [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options**: - **Soybean Options**: The fundamental situation shows that due to China's purchase of US soybeans, the purchase progress has advanced. The option implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 4,200, and the support level is 4,000. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: The oil mill operating rate is about 61.41%. The option implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 2,950, and the support level is 2,800. It is recommended to construct a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil Options**: The production in Malaysia has increased, while the export volume has decreased. The option implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 9,500, and the support level is 9,000. It is recommended to construct a bearish call spread strategy, a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut Options**: The peanut market is in a high - level consolidation phase. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR is around 1.00, indicating a volatile and strong market. The pressure level is 8,000, and the support level is 7,700. It is recommended to construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Agricultural By - product Options**: - **Pig Options**: The average slaughter weight of pigs has increased. The option implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.50, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 14,000, and the support level is 11,000. It is recommended to construct a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [10]. - **Egg Options**: The domestic egg price has a limited increase, and the supply is sufficient while the demand has no obvious improvement. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level is 4,000, and the support level is 2,800. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy [11]. - **Apple Options**: The new - season late - Fuji apple storage work is coming to an end, and the storage volume is less than last year. The option implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is above 0.90, indicating strong support below. The pressure level is 10,600, and the support level is 8,000. It is recommended to construct a bullish call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube Options**: The new - season jujube production in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, and the inventory pressure is large. The option implied volatility has rapidly risen above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.50. The pressure level is 12,600, and the support level is 10,000. It is recommended to construct a bearish strangle option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Soft Commodity Options**: - **Sugar Options**: The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have started crushing is less than last year. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, and the open interest PCR is around 0.60, indicating a range - bound market. The pressure level is 5,700, and the support level is 5,400. It is recommended to construct a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton Options**: The spinning mill operating rate is 65.5%, and the cotton commercial inventory has increased. The option implied volatility is at a low level, and the open interest PCR is below 1.00, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 13,600, and the support level is 13,000. It is recommended to construct a bullish call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. - **Grain Options**: - **Corn Options**: The corn inventory in northern ports is accumulating, and the trading in Guangdong ports is light. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 2,200, and the support level is 2,000. It is recommended to construct a bullish call + put option selling combination strategy [13].

玉米：本周，现货市场依旧维持紧张的氛围，农户销售进度加快，但是市场供应依旧短缺，粮源主要被贸易商囤积。短期看，供应保持低位与 下游企业补库需求的双重驱动下，玉米价格仍将保持强劲势头。值得关注的是，贸易商屯粮待涨，一定程度上延缓了售粮压力的集中释放，后 续关注产区粮源供应变化和港库库存的累积状况。中长期来看，本年度玉米市场供需格局仍维持偏紧态势，种植成本仍将对价格形成强支撑， 预计在农户售粮压力逐步释放后，现货价格有望开启新一轮上涨周期。 淀粉：短期看，淀粉报价跟随原料价格波动。新季玉米上市后，深加工采购积极性增加，开机率也逐步上调，不过由于下游补货依旧平缓，造 成产业去库缓慢，在高库存的压制下，淀粉价格依旧承压。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，若淀粉 报价出现大幅回落，届时会刺激下游补货积极性提升，带动价格走强。 | | | | | | | 农产品早报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean: The global soybean supply and demand pattern has shifted from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, with the predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio dropping to 28.94%. The bottom of the import cost may be apparent, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate [3][5]. - Palm Oil: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. The current supply surplus may reverse. If high - yield does not continue, the de - stocking time will come earlier. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [10]. - Sugar: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major countries, with the global supply - demand turning from shortage to surplus. The international sugar price may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to short on rallies and close positions on price drops [13]. - Cotton: Although the previous peak season was weak, the demand is not too bad after the peak season. The short - term capital inflow may push up the cotton price, but it's hard to have a unilateral trend [18]. - Eggs: Due to continuous losses, the sentiment of culling hens is strong. The short - term view is long, and the medium - term view is short [21]. - Pigs: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell, Brazilian premiums declined slightly, and the cost of soybean arrivals decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 30 yuan/ton, with weak trading and good pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.1353 million tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The USDA predicts a shift in the global soybean supply - demand pattern, and the global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped. The domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and the soybean meal inventory is large, but the de - stocking season is approaching [3][5]. Oil - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, domestic oils fluctuated, with foreign capital adding short positions in palm oil and long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The spot basis in China is stable [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production had mixed changes. The total inventory of the three major domestic oils continued to decline last week, but was still higher than the same period last year. The floods in Sumatra, Indonesia, have not significantly affected palm oil production [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract rose by 5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of new sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, while the prices of processed sugar remained unchanged [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of December 1, 39 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 310,000 tons. The global sugar supply is expected to have a surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose slightly. The closing price of the January contract increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of cotton also increased, and the basis was 1171 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of November 28, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.5%. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons. In 2025, China's cotton imports decreased. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase [16]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased slightly. The supply was relatively stable, the downstream sales were slow, and the inventory in the trading link increased slightly [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling hens. The far - month contracts are strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting consumption stocking and capacity reduction [21]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly rose, with partial declines. The average price in Henan and Sichuan increased slightly. The supply pressure from northern farmers and small farms increased, and the demand increase was limited [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The theoretical slaughter volume is still large, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [24].