Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board companies have shown resilience and stability in their performance, supported by a series of incremental policies, reflecting a robust economic structure in China [1] Group 1: Export Market Diversification - In 2024, companies on the Shanghai main board achieved overseas revenue of 6.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with non-US exports accounting for over 80% [2] - Key export destinations include ASEAN, Africa, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, with significant growth in sales for companies like SANY Heavy Industry and SAIC Motor [2] - Major construction state-owned enterprises have actively expanded overseas, signing new orders worth 1.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% [2] Group 2: High-Tech Product Exports - High-tech products such as high-end equipment, integrated circuits, smart home appliances, and electric vehicles have accelerated exports, leading to revenue growth in related industries [3] - Companies like Oriental Cable and Zhaoyi Innovation have made significant strides in international markets, with Zhaoyi Innovation achieving record high shipments [3] - The rise of new business models like cross-border e-commerce has boosted overseas sales for various sectors, including light manufacturing and retail [3] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions Activity - From 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, over 1,500 new M&A transactions were recorded on the Shanghai main board, with a total transaction value exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [4] - Notable M&A cases include Guotai Junan's acquisition of Haitong Securities and China Shipbuilding's proposed merger with China CSSC, each exceeding 100 billion yuan [4] - The trend of private acquisitions and the purchase of quality non-profitable assets has emerged, indicating a shift in M&A strategies [4][5] Group 4: Quality Improvement and Efficiency - By 2024, 946 companies on the Shanghai main board disclosed "quality improvement and efficiency return" action plans, with nearly 60% participation [6] - Among the companies that disclosed plans, nearly 90% achieved profitability, and almost 50% reported performance growth [6] - The total cash dividend announced by 1,259 companies reached 1.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a dividend payout ratio of 39% [7] Group 5: ESG Reporting and Progress - In 2024, 1,068 companies on the Shanghai main board disclosed ESG reports, achieving a disclosure rate of approximately 63%, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The number of companies included in the MSCI ESG rating increased, with 90 companies receiving upgrades in their ratings [9] - Companies have actively engaged in social responsibility initiatives, contributing to employment and environmental sustainability [10] Group 6: Index Investment Growth - In 2024, net inflows into ETFs on the Shanghai main board reached nearly 840 billion yuan, with significant participation from foreign capital [11] - The trading volume of ETFs ranked first in Asia, with a total trading amount of nearly 30 trillion yuan [11] - Foreign investment preferences are concentrated in sectors such as banking, food and beverage, and public utilities, indicating a strategic focus on stable industries [12] Group 7: Exit Mechanisms and Risk Mitigation - Since 2025, 19 companies on the Shanghai main board have faced various forms of delisting, with a significant portion resulting from financial issues [13] - The introduction of diverse exit channels, including voluntary delisting and asset restructuring, has become more prominent [13] - Companies have actively taken measures to improve operations and mitigate risks, with several successfully lifting delisting warnings [13]

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 北证50 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■Ａ股算数平均涨跌幅 7 6 5 4 3 2 l 0 -1 -2 -3 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 ■成交金额（合计/亿元) •换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 2 2017 23 20 32 - 322 03-23 Ox.O> Ox 02-05- 0:51 03:57:3 Ox 10 Ox 1,0 01-05 03-2-2 ","s 01:10 01:20 ing St 01-02 01-15 01:23 ar 2 o 25 O3, Ja fift 图1：北证成交额与换手率情况（截至 2025.04.30) 北交所日报 2 □国银河证券|CGS 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.04.30) 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 河证券|CGS 北交所日报 表 ...

截至4月29日，市场最新融资余额为17913.26亿元，较上个交易日环比减少13.50亿元，分行业统计，申 万所属一级行业有12个行业融资余额增加，公用事业行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加3.15亿元； 融资余额增加居前的行业还有汽车、通信、家用电器等，融资余额分别增加2.60亿元、1.06亿元、1.01 亿元；融资余额减少的行业有19个，医药生物、计算机、机械设备等行业融资余额减少较多，分别减少 4.27亿元、2.76亿元、2.35亿元。 以幅度进行统计，纺织服饰行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为67.95亿元，环比增长1.28%，其次 是公用事业、煤炭、钢铁行业，环比增幅分别为0.73%、0.51%、0.45%；融资余额环比降幅居前的行业 有商贸零售、美容护理、农林牧渔等，最新融资余额分别有214.77亿元、54.29亿元、259.07亿元，分别 下降0.97%、0.83%、0.73%。（数据宝） | 农林牧渔 | 259.07 | -1.90 | -0.73 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 214.77 | -2.11 | -0.97 | | 国防军工 | ...

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, 75.47% of the 5148 listed companies reported profits, with a total operating revenue of 15.77 trillion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.63% increase [1] - The ChiNext board showed the fastest net profit growth in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 8910.03 billion yuan, up 15.29% year-on-year, while the Shenzhen and Shanghai main boards reported increases of 11.36% and 2.54%, respectively [1] - Among 31 primary sub-industries, 16 reported year-on-year net profit growth in Q1 2025, with notable increases in sectors such as computer, agriculture, and home appliances, all exceeding 10% [1] Group 2 - Leading companies showed impressive performance in Q1 2025, with Light Media achieving a net profit of 2.016 billion yuan, a significant increase of 374.79% due to successful film releases and growth in related businesses [2] - The agriculture and forestry sector saw strong recovery, with over 10 companies reporting net profit growth of over 100%, including Haida Group, which reported a net profit of 1.282 billion yuan, up 48.99% [2] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) reported operating revenue of 84.705 billion yuan, a 6.18% increase, and a net profit of 13.963 billion yuan, reflecting a 32.85% growth [2] - Several private enterprises benefited from market recovery, with Cambrian achieving operating revenue of 1.111 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 4230.22%, and a net profit of 355 million yuan, compared to a loss in the previous year [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3286.65 points, down 0.05%, with a trading volume of 430.88 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9849.80 points, down 0.05%, with a trading volume of 591.24 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 1931.94 points, down 0.13%, with a trading volume of 270.74 billion yuan [1] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1003.87 points, up 0.1%, with a trading volume of 18.71 billion yuan [1] - Total trading volume for both markets was 1022.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.29 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included beauty care, media, machinery, light industry manufacturing, chemicals, home appliances, jewelry, and computers [3] - Active concepts included PEEK materials, humanoid robots, hub motors, noise reduction, integrated die-casting for automobiles, pet economy, AI, fluorine chemicals, and antibacterial fabrics [3] - Weak sectors included electric power, insurance, oil and petrochemicals, coal, and banking [3] Stock Performance - A total of 3381 stocks rose, while 1588 stocks fell, with 129 stocks remaining flat and 52 stocks suspended [3] - 76 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 62 stocks hit the daily limit down [3] - Liou Co. had the highest limit-up order volume with 118 million shares, followed by other notable stocks [3][4] Fund Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.352 billion yuan [5] - The machinery equipment sector saw the highest net inflow of main funds, amounting to 2.317 billion yuan [6] - A total of 10 sectors experienced net inflows, while 21 sectors saw net outflows [6] Individual Stock Highlights - Liou Co. had the highest net inflow of main funds at 884 million yuan [8] - Other stocks with significant net inflows included Miao Yi Innovation and Sichuan Changhong [8] - 38 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Shenghong Technology leading at 390 million yuan [10] Institutional Activity - Institutions had a net selling of approximately 42.47 million yuan, with 13 stocks seeing net purchases [11] - The top net purchase was for Da Ye Co. at approximately 44.54 million yuan [11]

2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...

2025 年 4 月 29 日 总量研究 关注三类资产 ——2025 年 5 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 要点 4 月 A 股港股市场有所回落 4月港股市场波动明显。4月受海外风险事件扰动、国内政策预期升温等因素影 响，港股市场整体走势震荡，出现较大幅度波动。截至2025年4月25日，恒生香 港35、恒生综合指数、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为 -3.3%、-4.5%、-4.9%、-5.1%、-7.6%。 A股观点：或震荡上行，关注三类资产 政策的持续支持以及中长期资金积极流入背景下， A 股市场有望震荡上行。当 前 A 股市场的估值处于 2010 年以来的均值附近，而随着政策的积极发力，中长 期资金带来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托底，A 股市场有望 震荡上行。 配置方向上，关注三类资产。方向一：稳定类资产，如高股息、黄金。稳定类资 产能够在市场面临不确定时提供确定性。方向二：产业链自主可控。在"双循环" 新发展格局和全球产业链重构的双重驱动下，国产替代相关机会也值得关注。方 向三：内需消费。海外政策可能长期处于不确定性的背景下，内需板块值得长期 关注。 港股观点：关注"哑 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was under pressure, with a revenue of 4.833 billion yuan, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64 million yuan, down 38% year-on-year [5][8] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was only 2 million yuan, a decline of 60% year-on-year [5][8] - The report highlights that the demand for massage products in overseas markets was weak, impacting the company's overall performance [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 122 million yuan and 160 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 89.6% and 31.0% [7][8] - The report provides a detailed financial summary, indicating a projected revenue of 5.196 billion yuan for 2025, with a gross margin of 36.2% [10][8] - The company’s ROE is expected to improve gradually, reaching 3.8% by 2027 [7][8] Business Segment Performance - The massage chair segment faced challenges, with revenues of 2.047 billion yuan, down 5.34% year-on-year, while the massage small appliances segment saw a modest growth of 8.96% [8] - The company is focusing on technological innovations and exploring new markets, including countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, with over 50% of revenue coming from its own brand [8] Cost and Expense Management - In Q1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 34.62%, a decrease of 4.04 percentage points year-on-year, but managed to reduce selling and administrative expense ratios [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 22.43 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.24 billion yuan, up 2.97% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 28.10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.24 billion yuan, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 99.74% [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.59%, and a net profit of 497 million yuan, up 5.82% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Domestic sales remained stable with a revenue of 14.93 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 1.21% year-on-year, while external sales grew significantly to 7.50 billion yuan, an increase of 21.07% year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2025, the kitchen small appliances sector saw online sales growth in various categories, including rice cookers and health pots, with increases ranging from 4.9% to 26.6% [3] Profitability and Cost Control - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 24.65%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic gross margin at 27.69% and external gross margin at 18.62% [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 10.01%, down 0.22 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 net profit margin was 8.56%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points year-on-year [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 23.64 billion yuan, 24.72 billion yuan, and 25.66 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.38 billion yuan, 2.51 billion yuan, and 2.64 billion yuan [5] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.97 yuan, 3.13 yuan, and 3.29 yuan respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19, 18, and 17 times [5]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Buy (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 revenue met expectations, while profits exceeded market expectations. The air conditioning segment is expected to show low single-digit growth year-on-year, with domestic sales slightly increasing and foreign sales significantly growing. The home appliance segment is projected to grow by approximately 15% year-on-year, with foreign sales increasing by over 30% [6][8] - The company's Q1 revenue was 24.838 billion yuan (up 5.76% year-on-year), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.127 billion yuan (up 14.89% year-on-year) [8] Revenue Analysis - The company expects Q1 domestic sales to remain stable, while foreign sales are projected to grow by over 20%. The revenue growth ranking by product is expected to be home appliances > washing machines > air conditioning [8] - The air conditioning segment is expected to see a slight recovery in domestic sales, while the home appliance segment is expected to continue its double-digit growth [6][8] Profit Analysis - The gross profit margin for Q1 is expected to be 21.41% (up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year), with improvements in both domestic and foreign sales gross margins. The net profit margin for Q1 is projected to be 4.5% (up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year) [7][8] Profit Forecast - Based on the latest performance, the company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 101.916 billion yuan, 109.554 billion yuan, and 116.658 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 7.5%, and 6.5% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.892 billion yuan, 4.436 billion yuan, and 4.890 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 14.0%, and 10.2% respectively [9][11]