Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 marks the beginning of a systematic restructuring rather than a simple continuation of the next cycle, with a focus on macroeconomic changes, policy logic, and asset pricing shifts [1]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Narrative - The narrative is shifting from "stabilizing growth" to "high-quality development," with a new focus on fiscal leadership and precise monetary support, emphasizing targeted investments in technology, green initiatives, and public welfare [3]. - The new paradigm features enhanced debt constraints, with local government debt resolution entering a critical phase and market-oriented transformations of city investment platforms becoming an irreversible trend [3]. - Growth drivers are transitioning, with increased resilience in exports, manufacturing upgrades, and the emergence of new energy sectors, while real estate is no longer the economic anchor [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Main Lines - Three structural opportunities are identified for asset allocation in 2026: 1. High-end manufacturing going global, transitioning from cost advantages to a dual drive of technology and brand [5]. 2. Technological self-sufficiency, supported by policies that create a long-term dividend in sectors like semiconductors and AI infrastructure [7]. 3. Green transformation and ESG financialization, where carbon trading and green bonds reshape industry valuation, leading to premium reassessment of low-carbon assets [9][10]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - In a declining interest rate environment, the focus should be on relative value rather than absolute returns, with specific strategies for different asset classes: - For interest rate bonds, attention to duration structure and policy rhythm is crucial [12]. - In credit bonds, differentiation in city investment bonds is increasing, necessitating careful evaluation of regional fiscal capabilities and debt structures [13]. - For equity assets, emphasis on profit quality, cash flow stability, and sustainable ROE is recommended, moving away from PE speculation [13]. - Alternative assets like REITs and infrastructure public funds are emerging as new opportunities for institutional allocation [13]. Conclusion - The essence of investment lies in understanding change, with opportunities in 2026 favoring those who comprehend structural transformations rather than those seeking short-term policy stimuli [17][18].

★ 宏观动态 ★ 普京宣布对华免签近期生效，中方回应 11月19日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。 俄新社记者提问，昨天，俄罗斯总统普京表示，针对中国公 民的俄罗斯免签制度将于近期生效，外交部有何评论？中方预计中国赴俄罗斯旅游人数会增加吗？ 毛宁表 示，中方高度重视中俄人员往来便利化，中俄两国互为最大的邻国，两国实现互免签证，将进一步加强人文交 流，符合两国人民的共同利益。 两部门印发《养老机构预收费存管工作指引》 据民政部消息，为加强养老机构预收费监管，健全商业银行第三方存管制度，按照有关规定，民政部、金融监 管总局联合制定了《养老机构预收费存管工作指引》。《指引》提出，养老机构原则上通过存管银行收取押 金、会员费。通过其他支付机构或者现金收取的，应当于收取当日（至迟次日）划转或者存入专用存款账户。 中国有色金属工业协会：10月份规模以上有色金属工业增加值同比实际增长4.0% 据中国有色金属工业协会信息统计部消息，有色金属工业生产总体保持合理增长，固定资产投资保持平稳增长 势头。10月份，规模以上有色金属工业增加值同比实际增长4.0%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长 率，下同）；1—10月份，规模以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The combination of policy, fundamentals, and capital flow is expected to create a positive synergy that will drive the sector to continue its upward trend [1][2]. Policy Perspective - The "anti-involution" policy and the "14th Five-Year Plan" are providing ongoing support for the industry. The "anti-involution" policy aims to combat vicious price wars and promote the exit of backward production capacity, which will systematically improve the competitive environment and profit expectations [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" sets a high-quality development tone for the industry over the next five years, reinforcing the core position of new energy as a strategic emerging industry, with supportive policies expected to continue to emerge [1]. Fundamental Perspective - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics and the expectation of quarterly performance recovery are key factors determining the sustainability of the sector's market performance. The photovoltaic and lithium battery industries are seeing gradual improvements in supply-demand structures, with the photovoltaic industry expected to curb price wars and corporate profits projected to rebound by 2025 [1]. - The energy storage market is anticipated to maintain rapid growth, benefiting from sustained high demand in downstream sectors, leading to a quarterly performance recovery for related companies in the new energy supply chain starting from the second half of this year [1]. Capital Flow Perspective - Currently, institutional holdings in the new energy sector are relatively low, indicating potential for incremental capital inflow. The capital flow acts as an amplifier for market performance, and with the improvement in fundamentals and favorable policies, institutional interest is expected to rise [2]. - Passive capital has already begun to flow significantly into the sector, and as performance gradually materializes, more actively managed funds are likely to increase their allocations. New energy, as a long-term investment track with high certainty, is naturally attractive to long-term funds such as pension and insurance funds, suggesting a potential influx of capital into the sector [2]. - For ordinary investors, index-based investments are recommended as a more stable option, with various ETFs available to share in the industry's growth dividends [2].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with major indices declining, where the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index fell over 1% during the day [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.93 trillion, an increase of 153 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The overall liquidity remains ample, and the market's active volume suggests that the adjustment space is manageable [1] AI and Computing Sector - The computing-related sector performed relatively well, driven by optimism about AI applications, despite concerns regarding the sustainability of AI investments [3] - Capital expenditures (Capex) for cloud service providers have significantly accelerated, with expected year-on-year growth exceeding 50% for 2025 [4] - Major tech companies are facing pressure on their balance sheets due to high Capex, which is comparable to their annual cloud revenues and constitutes about 60% of their operating cash flow [4][6] Investment Trends - The trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor equipment sector is expected to gain momentum, particularly in light of the ongoing technological decoupling between China and the U.S. [7] - Investors are encouraged to focus on semiconductor equipment ETFs as a long-term investment strategy [7] - The software ETF saw a rise of 1.21%, indicating a rebound in AI application-related sectors after previous adjustments [8] Corporate Developments - Alibaba and Tencent are actively developing AI agents, with Alibaba launching the Qianwen app, which quickly rose in rankings on the iOS free chart [9] - Huawei is set to announce breakthrough AI technology that could significantly enhance the utilization of computing resources [9] Institutional Holdings - Institutional holdings in the computing sector have seen a slight increase to 3.2% in Q3 2025, although this remains historically low [10] - The core focus in the computing sector continues to revolve around AI and technological self-reliance, with opportunities in software and computing ETFs [10] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector experienced a noticeable pullback, primarily due to profit-taking after a recent surge, although the underlying fundamentals remain strong [11] - Future focus areas include high-demand sectors like energy storage and lithium batteries, as well as potential recovery in solar and lithium materials [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of expanding domestic demand to drive China's economic recovery and achieve high-quality development, while also addressing the resilience of foreign trade amidst external shocks and the ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets in a global context [2][5][12]. Economic Outlook - The worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing, as all economic leading indicators are showing upward trends for the first time in three years, indicating potential improvement in the economic cycle [5][6]. - The GDP growth target of 5% for the year is considered achievable based on the economic data from the first three quarters [5]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - Key measures to boost domestic consumption include the deployment of policy financial tools and the release of local debt limits, alongside efforts to stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence in the economy [7]. - Confidence in long-term economic transformation and mid-term price recovery is crucial, with a focus on observable price signals such as stock and housing prices [7]. Foreign Trade and External Demand - China's foreign trade shows strong resilience, but external demand is expected to face short-term adjustment pressures, with a moderate recovery anticipated in the first half of the following year [8]. - Eleven out of twenty leading indicators suggest a potential recovery in external demand, although caution is advised due to the risk of demand overextension [8]. Industry Policy and New Economic Growth - The article outlines a clear framework for modernizing the industrial system, categorizing industries into traditional, emerging, and future sectors, each requiring tailored policy support [9][10]. - Traditional industries will focus on quality improvement and efficiency, while emerging industries will see a shift from subsidies to market-oriented support [10][11]. Investment Strategy - The investment landscape suggests a shift from bonds to equities, with a focus on dividend strategies across various industries, particularly those with low valuations and high dividend yields [5][12]. - The article highlights the ongoing strong momentum for gold, driven by non-traditional macro factors, and suggests a long-term bullish outlook on gold as global order remains unstable [12][14].

新能源车题材领跌，钢铁、有色金属、化工、煤炭跌幅居前，中国宏桥跌近6%。 个股方面，小鹏汽车跌逾10%，联想集团跌超4%，蔚来、快手跌超3%，腾讯音乐、理想汽车、小米集 团等跌超2%，百度健康、阿里健康等跌超1%，京东健康、阿里巴巴等小幅下跌；华虹半导体涨逾3%， 中芯国际、携程集团涨超1%。 编辑 ｜ 钉钉 11月18日，香港恒生指数收跌1.72%，恒生科技指数跌1.93%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 恒生指数 | 25930.03c | -454.25 | -1.72% | 2421亿 | | HSTECH | 恒生科技 | 5645.73c | -111.15 | -1.93% | 763亿 | | HSBIO | 恒生生物科技 | 15693.14c | -266.15 | -1.67% | 90亿 | | HSCEI | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9174.84c | -153.56 | -1.65% | 925亿 | | HSCI | 恒生综合指数 | 3978.94c ...

11月18日，香港恒生指数收跌1.72%，恒生科技指数跌1.93%。 个股方面，小鹏汽车跌逾10%，联想集团跌超4%，蔚来、快手跌超3%，腾讯音乐、理想汽车、小米集团等跌超2%，百度健康、阿里健康等跌超1%， 京东健康、阿里巴巴等小幅下跌；华虹半导体涨逾3%，中芯国际、携程集团涨超1%。 编辑 ｜ 钉钉 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 恒生指数 | 25930.03c -454.25 | | -1.72% | 2421亿 | | HSTECH 恒生科技 | | 5645.73c -111.15 | | -1.93% | 763亿 | | HSBIO | 恒生生物科技 | 15693.14c -266.15 | | -1.67% | 90亿 | | HSCEI | | 恒生中国企业指数 9174.84c -153.56 | | -1.65% | 925亿 | | HSCI | 恒生综合指数 | 3978.94c | -73.42 | -1.81% | 1793亿 | 新能源车题材领跌，钢铁、 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline in the morning session, with the North Securities 50 Index dropping over 2% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3949.83 points, down 0.56% [1][8] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13145.00 points, down 0.43% [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3091.87 points, down 0.43% [3] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4587.80 points, down 0.22% [4] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1366.61 points, up 0.93% [5] - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7178.15 points, down 0.79% [6] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7466.41 points, down 0.75% [7] Sector Performance - AI applications, semiconductor chips, CPO, and software development sectors led the gains, with stocks like Fushi Holdings and Inspur Software hitting the daily limit [1] - The battery sector faced significant declines, with stocks like Fengyuan Co. hitting the daily limit down [1][12] - Local stocks in Fujian, such as Sanmu Group, also saw substantial declines [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the morning session reached 1.29 trillion yuan [1] AI Sector Developments - Positive news in the AI sector includes Alibaba's launch of the "Qianwen" project and the upcoming release of Google's Gemini 3.0 model [8] - China International Capital Corporation noted that the business model for AI applications is rapidly transitioning from concept validation to revenue generation, with demand expanding quickly [8] Market Sentiment - China Galaxy Securities anticipates that the year-end market will continue to exhibit a volatile structure, with a focus on themes like "anti-involution" and dividends [9] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with rapid rotation between sectors, particularly in technology and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support [9]

Market Overview - The total scale of equity ETFs in the market reached 48,557.73 billion yuan, with a decrease of 44.35 billion yuan in total scale over the past week, while total shares increased by 22.63 billion shares, resulting in a net inflow of 283.21 billion yuan [1] - Industry and thematic sector ETFs saw a net inflow of 185.41 billion yuan, primarily driven by inflows into the artificial intelligence sector, with all four major categories experiencing net inflows this week [2] Fund Inflow and Outflow Directions - In the broad-based and strategy ETF categories, the top three inflow sectors were: Sci-Tech 50 (+35.32 billion yuan), Strategy-Dividend (+33.98 billion yuan), and Free Cash Flow (+10.38 billion yuan). The top three outflow sectors were: Shanghai Stock 50 (-10.86 billion yuan), CSI 300 (-26.40 billion yuan), and CSI A500 (-40.55 billion yuan) [3][4] - In the industry and thematic sector ETFs, the top five inflow sectors were: Artificial Intelligence (+49.38 billion yuan), Non-Bank Financials (+30.57 billion yuan), Robotics (+15.81 billion yuan), Semiconductor Chips (+14.81 billion yuan), and Chemicals (+13.94 billion yuan). The top five outflow sectors were: Coal (-8.62 billion yuan), Non-Ferrous Metals (-6.70 billion yuan), New Energy Vehicles (-5.90 billion yuan), Banks (-5.28 billion yuan), and Traditional Chinese Medicine (-2.33 billion yuan) [5] Key Focus Areas - OPEC+ reported a decrease in oil production for October, averaging 43.02 million barrels per day, down by 73,000 barrels per day from September, impacting oil and gas ETFs positively with a four-week consecutive rise [6] - The ongoing regional tensions led to a suspension of exports from Russian Black Sea ports, affecting approximately 2% of global supply, equivalent to 2.2 million barrels per day [7] - The A-share IPO market has seen a significant increase in acceptance, with a year-on-year surge of over 400% in the first ten months of the year, indicating a robust market environment for securities ETFs [9] - The securities industry is expected to experience rapid growth in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 42.55% in operating income and 62.38% in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [10][11]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1] - The market turnover decreased to 82.799 billion HKD, with net inflows of 484 million HKD recorded in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1][5] - The US stock market also faced declines, with the Dow Jones falling 1.2% to 46,590 points, influenced by pressure on the technology sector [2] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, local real estate, software, and 5G concept sectors saw significant declines, while gold stocks performed well [1] - The technology sector in the US was notably affected, with major companies like Nvidia and Apple experiencing stock price drops [2] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, indicating that electric equipment, pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and banking sectors underperformed, while software services, consumer goods, coal, and real estate sectors showed strength [1] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests continued focus on sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and industrial software, which are seen as new productivity drivers [3] - It emphasizes the value of Hong Kong stocks with Chinese assets, particularly in state-owned enterprises with lower valuations and higher dividends [3] - The report also points to opportunities in upstream non-ferrous metals benefiting from expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Company Highlights - Baidu, as the largest Chinese search engine, is expanding its AI capabilities, with a focus on intelligent driving and related technologies [10] - The company reported a revenue of 32.713 billion CNY for Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.59%, but a net profit increase of 33.42% [10] - The report indicates that Baidu's AI applications are gaining traction, with significant advancements in its AI strategy shared during the Baidu World Conference [10] Economic Data - The Ministry of Finance reported that the national general public budget revenue for the first ten months of the year reached 18.65 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [9] - The report highlights a significant increase in securities transaction stamp duty, which rose by 88.1% year-on-year, indicating an active secondary market [9] - The report also notes that the total credit card receivables in Hong Kong reached 151 billion HKD by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a growing consumer credit environment [11]