反观美联储，仍深陷政府停摆后的"数据真空"困境。鲍威尔近期释放的鹰派信号，已显著降温市场对12 月降息25个基点的押注。与此同时，美元指数正运行于98-102的短期上行通道，叠加澳美利差收窄与美 元避险属性的双重作用，共同对澳元的反弹空间形成强力压制。 周一（11月17日）澳元兑美元交投于0.6525，日内震荡0.6508-0.6536，受澳央行维稳支撑与美元强势压 制，0.65关口多空胶着。 当前澳元兑美元的基本面逻辑，核心聚焦于澳、美两大央行的政策路径分化。澳大利亚央行在11月明确 暂停降息步伐，维持3.6%的现金利率不变，这一决策直接源于三季度通胀数据的超预期反弹——整体 通胀率攀升至3.2%。机构研判已随之调整，甚至预测其下次利率动向或为2027年初的加息，这种"降息 周期基本终结"的明确预期，为澳元提供了坚实支撑。 技术面呈弱势整理，核心区间0.6500-0.6550。0.6500（200日均线+心理关口）为支撑，破位下看 0.6460；0.6550（50日均线阻力）为反弹关键，突破上探0.6580-0.6600。 指标上，均线空头排列，MACD零轴下绿柱收窄但未金叉，KDJ超卖存反弹需求但动能有限 ...

美瑞关税谈判传闻利好瑞郎，市场预期美国对瑞士商品进口税率或从39%下调至15%，若落地将改善瑞 士出口企业盈利，增强经常项目稳健性，为瑞郎提供额外支撑。 美元兑瑞郎技术分析 支撑位：下方即时支撑为前期低点0.7918-0.7922区间，若跌破将下探0.7900整数关口，更深层次支撑关 注0.7885（10月28日低点），该位置构成近期重要支撑平台。阻力位：短期上方阻力聚焦0.7950-0.7960 区间，进一步阻力指向11月6日高点0.8012，突破后或打开向0.8050的反弹空间，但当前动能不足，突破 难度较大。 周一（11月17日）美元兑瑞士法郎交投于0.7942附近，呈小幅上行态势，当前汇价受美联储降息预期、 瑞士央行稳利率立场及避险需求共同影响，维持低位震荡格局，技术面偏向弱势整理，关键点位突破将 决定后续方向。 "美联储观察"显示，12月降息25个基点的概率已升至65%，鸽派官员发声支持宽松，强化市场对利率偏 紧的担忧，美元指数承压于99.50附近，难以给汇价提供上行动力。美国政府停摆结束后，积压经济数 据即将集中发布，市场提前定价经济放缓风险，进一步抑制美元反弹空间。 瑞士央行多次表态当前利率水平 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal disagreement regarding the future policy path, with various regional Fed presidents expressing differing views on inflation pressures, labor market resilience, and whether interest rates should continue to be lowered [2] - The current federal funds rate is in the range of 3.75% to 4%, but there is no consensus among decision-makers on whether this range is still "restrictive" [2] - Cleveland Fed President Mester advocates for maintaining stable interest rates to continue pressuring inflation back to the 2% target, highlighting persistent inflation impacts on low- and middle-income households [2] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard supports previous rate cuts but emphasizes that current inflation remains above the Fed's target, suggesting that policy should maintain some level of restrictiveness [2] - Investors face significant uncertainty regarding future policy direction, with the likelihood of another rate cut at the December meeting being nearly 50% according to interest rate futures pricing [2] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expressed reservations about the October rate cut, stating he did not support it at the time due to strong economic performance and has not yet decided how to vote in the upcoming meeting [2] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to issue up to €4 billion in senior bonds [4] - Standard & Poor's has assigned an "A+" long-term foreign currency issuance rating to China's proposed euro-denominated bonds [6] - Country Garden Holdings announced key terms for its proposed restructuring, aiming to significantly reduce debt by over $11 billion, contingent on creditor participation in the restructuring plan [6] - Evergrande Property has been informed by its liquidator about the invitation for selected bidders to review further information and submit updated non-binding proposals by the end of November 2025 [6] - Evergrande Auto has received a court ruling regarding the bankruptcy and liquidation petition from creditors against its wholly-owned subsidiary, with production at its Tianjin facility suspended since January 2024 [6] Group 3 - As of November 13, the yield on China's two-year government bonds is 1.43%, while the ten-year yield is 1.81% [8] - The yield on U.S. two-year government bonds rose by 2 basis points to 3.58%, and the ten-year yield increased by 3 basis points to 4.11% [8]

北京商报讯 （记者 岳品瑜 实习生 岳雯艳）11月17日，据人民银行官网此前公告，为保持银行体系流动 性充裕，中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期 限为6个月。 ...

Wind数据显示，当日有1199亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1631亿元。 北京商报讯 （记者 岳品瑜 实习生 岳雯艳）11月17日，据中国人民银行官网，中国人民银行以固定利 率、数量招标方式开展了2830亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40％，投标量2830亿元，中标量2830 亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The personal pension financial management market in China is expanding, driven by policy support and increasing investor participation, with a focus on providing stable returns and diversified product offerings [2][4][10]. Group 1: Market Expansion and Performance - As of June 2023, the cumulative balance of personal pension financial products purchased by investors reached 110.36 billion yuan, generating over 390 million yuan in returns with an average annualized return exceeding 3.4% [4][6]. - The number of personal pension financial products has increased to 37 by the end of October 2023, indicating a rich and diverse product shelf aimed at helping clients achieve stable returns [4][10]. - The personal pension system has seen significant growth in market scale and participation, with over 70 million accounts opened, creating a multi-tiered and widely covered market structure [4][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - The performance of personal pension financial products is attributed to sound investment strategies, optimized asset allocation, and strict risk control, which collectively create a low-volatility and stable appreciation characteristic [7][8]. - It is recommended to focus on "fixed income plus" strategies, especially in a declining interest rate environment, by selecting high-rated, medium-duration bonds and increasing equity asset allocation [8][11]. - The financial management industry is encouraged to enhance product diversity and flexibility in investment strategies, including the introduction of alternative assets like gold and silver to improve risk management [8][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Support - The recent announcement by the National Financial Regulatory Administration to expand the pilot areas for pension financial products nationwide is expected to inject strong momentum into the development of pension financial management businesses [10][11]. - The supply side of the pension financial market is anticipated to see more financial institutions participating, with a shift towards long-term products and a focus on diverse asset allocation and risk hedging [11]. - The demand side is expected to grow as product variety increases and preferential rates are implemented, enhancing the inclusivity of pension finance [11].

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.08% 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.08%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 0.79%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 6.06%，铁矿石主力合约本周上涨 1.18%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率上涨 2BP 至 1.03%；十年国债收益率收于 1.81%，与上周持平；活跃十 年国债期货本周下跌 0.08%。 资产配置建议 相关研究报告 《策略周报》20251116 《中银量化大类资产跟踪》20251116 《10 月金融数据点评》20251116 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：陈琦 qi.chen@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110003 10 月社会消费品零售总额规模为 46291 亿元，同比增长 2.8%，除汽车以 外的消费品零售额同比增长 4.0%，较 9 月加快 0.8 个百分点，带动社零同 比增速 3.6 个百分点；餐饮收入同 ...

人民网北京11月17日电 （记者黄盛）据中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）此前发布的公开市场买断式 逆回购招标公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，11月17日，央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中 标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 据介绍，今年11月，6个月期买断式逆回购到期量为3000亿元，该期限买断式逆回购实现加量续做5000 亿元。此前，央行还对3个月期买断式逆回购实行了等量续做。11月还将有9000亿元中期借贷便利 （MLF）到期。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，11月份MLF（中期借贷便利）到期规模为9000亿元，本月买断式逆 回购净投放增加，也用于缓解MLF的续做压力。 "今年以来，央行综合运用多种货币政策工具，既保持流动性'适度宽松'又维持'不满不溢'。"中国民生 银行首席经济学家温彬表示，后续看，在年内稳增长诉求加大、财政加力下，货币政策的协同性将进一 步加强，资金面有望保持宽松状态。 也有业内人士表示，买断式逆回购与常规质押式逆回购在市场调节中存在核心机制差异。前者是央行向 一级交易商买入债券并持有至到期，其间可自由处置（如再融资、做空），可增强市场流动性深度， ...

Core Insights - The implementation of the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy aims to stimulate consumer spending and support economic growth by reducing the cost of consumer credit [1][2][3] - The policy has been positively received by consumers and financial institutions, leading to increased loan applications and consumer spending in sectors like home appliances and furniture [3][6][7] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy began in September, providing financial incentives to consumers to encourage spending [1][2] - As of the end of October, nearly 1 million customers had signed subsidy agreements, with over 1.8 million transactions recognized as eligible for the subsidy [3][10] - The policy has led to a noticeable increase in consumer purchases, particularly in home appliances and home renovations, with significant savings on interest payments [3][8] Group 2: Consumer Experience - Consumers report a seamless experience when applying for loans and receiving subsidies, with many banks offering automated systems for recognizing eligible transactions [2][9] - The convenience of online applications and automatic recognition of eligible purchases has enhanced consumer satisfaction [2][9] - The subsidy has allowed consumers to make larger purchases without the burden of high interest, leading to increased spending on essential and luxury items [5][11] Group 3: Financial Institutions' Response - Financial institutions have adapted quickly to the new policy, streamlining processes to ensure consumers can easily access the benefits [3][10] - Banks have established dedicated teams to manage the implementation of the subsidy policy, ensuring compliance and efficiency [3][10] - The collaboration between banks and e-commerce platforms has resulted in additional incentives for consumers, further driving sales during promotional events like "Double 11" [6][14] Group 4: Market Trends - The subsidy policy has led to a significant increase in the proportion of products available for interest-free installment payments, with some retailers reporting a rise from under 5% to over 50% [7][14] - E-commerce platforms have seen a nearly 40% increase in transaction volume for products covered by the subsidy since its implementation [14] - The combination of government subsidies, financial support, and retailer discounts has created a robust environment for consumer spending, positioning it as a long-term growth driver for the economy [7][10]

"十五五"规划建议提出，全面实施"人工智能+"行动，以人工智能引领科研范式变革，加强人工智能同 产业发展、文化建设、民生保障、社会治理相结合，抢占人工智能产业应用制高点，全方位赋能千行百 业。 作为"人工智能+"行动的重要领域，金融科技在政策引导、技术迭代与市场需求的三重驱动下，正从技 术应用向生态重构加速演进。 "'十五五'时期经济社会发展既对金融科技提出新要求，也创造重要契机。一是建立起金融科技'四梁八 柱'，二是数据要素市场化红利加速释放，三是科技融合赋能形成'裂变效应'，四是'十五五'时期经济社 会发展提供丰富场景。"中关村金融科技产业发展联盟专家委员会常务副主任王汝芳日前在"2025金融科 技大会平行论坛——AI+金融专题论坛"上表示。 "十五五"时期，随着科技创新与金融创新、产业创新深度融合，金融科技将迈向技术赋能、场景深耕、 生态协同的高质量发展新阶段。如何激发"金融+科技"的场景潜力、释放创新红利？哪些挑战亟待应 对？ AI应用： 金融智能体崛起 人工智能在金融领域展现出广阔的应用前景，已在智能风控、客户服务、投研分析等领域得到了充分实 践。 在多地实践中，北京的布局尤为突出。"作为国际科技创 ...