Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, and the intraday rebound of the futures market is mainly driven by the sharp rise of commodities such as coking coal. Starting from the end of October, production in Southwest China will be reduced, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant policies, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure. Although production may decrease in November, downstream production scheduling may also weaken. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,995 yuan/ton and closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 1.61% from the previous settlement price. The position of the 2511 main contract was 220,662 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 47,338 lots, a decrease of 706 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton and is expected to decline slightly under pressure [1] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken on the dry - season contracts at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 54,600 yuan/ton and closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 118,430 lots, and the trading volume was 307,284 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 4.84% month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 14.73GW, an increase of 2.65% month - on - month. The production of polysilicon in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and production in Southwest China is expected to decline significantly in November [3] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended. The 11 main contract is expected to fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the main contract of polysilicon showed a relatively strong performance within the range. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 54,990 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.72%. The trading volume was 307,284 lots, and the open interest was 118,430 lots, with a net increase of 3,498 lots [4]. - The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the expected polysilicon output is 382,000 tons, with an average monthly output of 127,300 tons. However, the output in October, as statistics from the Silicon Industry Branch show, reached 137,000 tons, exceeding expectations. The significant profit restoration has curbed the willingness for active production cuts. Currently, the monthly output can meet the terminal demand of 68.5GW. The supply - demand imbalance situation has not been reversed, especially as the terminal demand is still in a weak period after the "rush installation." The market focus is expected to remain on the policy side. Recently, there is a policy vacuum period. Although the photovoltaic sector in the equity market is performing strongly, the fundamental situation of polysilicon itself is still weak, and it will run cautiously and strongly within the range [4]. 2. Market News - On October 28, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,150 lots, a net decrease of 90 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - In September 2025, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5]. - On October 27, Daquan Energy released an announcement stating that its revenue in the third quarter reached 1.773 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 24.75%, and the net profit was 73.479 million yuan. The announcement also showed that the revenue in the first three quarters was 3.243 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.00%, and the net profit had a loss of 1.073 billion yuan [5]. - On October 25, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) disclosed its 2025 third - quarter report. In the third quarter, the company's operating income was 24.091 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 1.57%. However, the loss of net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies narrowed. The year - on - year loss reduction was 62.69%, and the quarter - on - quarter loss reduction was 86.68%. The recovery of the industry environment has had a positive impact on the company's profitability [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights the increased policy confidence and strategic initiative reflected in the "15th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes the dual drive of technology and consumption for industrial restructuring [2][10] - The document states that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, indicating a shift from a risk-averse approach to a more proactive strategy in policy-making [10][11] - The plan outlines specific directions for industrial restructuring, focusing on revitalizing manufacturing and enhancing the security of industrial chains, with an emphasis on upgrading key industries such as mining, metallurgy, and chemicals [10][11] Group 2 - Technology innovation is established as a core pillar for the "15th Five-Year Plan," with initiatives aimed at promoting industrial innovation and developing strategic emerging industries like new energy and aerospace [10][11] - The report emphasizes a shift in consumption policy towards a more operational and structural approach, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and willingness through social security improvements and targeted subsidies [11][12] - The document suggests that the upcoming U.S.-China summit may boost market sentiment, with investment opportunities identified in AI applications, anti-involution themes, and brokerage sectors [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The mid - term upward trend of copper continues, but there is a risk of short - term retracement; alumina prices may rebound slightly but are suppressed by over - supply and imports; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish; ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices will remain strong and volatile; zinc prices may be long on dips; lead prices may decline; nickel prices are weak and volatile; stainless steel prices are recommended to be short on rebounds; tin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; industrial silicon prices can be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy; polysilicon prices suggest reducing short - term long positions and buying on dips; lithium carbonate prices can be bought on pullbacks [1][9][17][22][27][34][38][43][51][56][64][69] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 88,710 yuan/ton, up 1.16%, with an increase of 22,023 lots in the Shanghai copper index. Shanghai spot copper was at a discount of 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Important Information**: The "small non - farm" ADP released weekly employment data; Trump may influence the Fed; CMOC will invest 1.08 billion US dollars to expand its KFM copper mine; Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased; First Quantum's Q3 copper production and guidance production changed [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US relations have eased, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The supply of copper mines is more disrupted, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The supply is relatively tight, and consumption is weak [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for the mid - term; hold inter - market positive spreads; wait and see for options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 40 yuan to 2,879 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 11,116 lots in positions. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with some declines in Guangxi and Guizhou [7] - **Related Information**: Tangshan launched a heavy - pollution emergency response; a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprise purchased alumina; Australian alumina prices changed; domestic alumina production capacity increased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply and demand are still in significant surplus, but there are expectations of production cuts, which drive prices to rebound slightly, but are restricted by production cuts not being implemented and imports [9][11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage and options [12][13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 75 yuan to 21,295 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,871 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15] - **Related Information**: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; aluminum inventories decreased; Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter had a production reduction [15][16] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation has eased, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts. Overseas production cuts intensify supply - demand concerns, and domestic consumption has resilience, so aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are volatile and bullish [18] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 65 yuan to 20,690 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,342 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions were stable [20] - **Related Information**: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts and social inventories changed [20][21] - **Trading Logic**: The macro - expectation is improving. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the industry supply is shrinking. Demand is resilient, so prices will remain strong and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.27% to 22,430 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,255 lots in positions. The spot market was cautious in purchasing [25] - **Related Information**: An Inner Mongolia lead - zinc mine resumed production and may stop production in winter; domestic zinc ingot inventories changed [26] - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic smelters' winter storage has expanded, and processing fees have decreased, squeezing smelter profits. Consumption may weaken. Overseas inventories are low, and LME zinc prices are strong [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips; consider advance layout for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [28] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.4% to 17,355 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 566 lots in positions. Spot prices decreased, and downstream procurement willingness declined [31] - **Related Information**: Some lead - battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production; a lead smelter in North China stopped for maintenance; a lead - zinc mine in Inner Mongolia resumed production; lead inventories decreased [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: Some lead - battery enterprises reduce production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead may increase, so lead prices may decline [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions; wait and see for arbitrage; continue to hold sold out - of - the - money call options [35][36] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2512 rose 410 to 121,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2,144 lots in the index positions. Spot premiums changed [37] - **Important Information**: Indonesia and Brazil strengthened cooperation; a nickel company's performance and production quota plans; Indonesia promoted the downstream development of nickel resources; the Indonesian nickel price index was stable [38] - **Logic Analysis**: Precious metals' correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. LME nickel inventories are increasing, and the upside of nickel prices is limited, showing a weak and volatile trend [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Nickel prices are weak and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [38][39] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 rose 40 to 12,805 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2,342 lots in positions. Spot prices were in a certain range [42] - **Important Information**: Some steel mills plan to reduce production; Taiwan's stainless steel industry is under cost pressure [43] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and the supply of 200 - series stainless steel is reduced. The cost support is not strong, and prices face resistance [43] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage [44][45] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan/ton or 0.65%. Spot prices rose, but the market acceptance was low [47] - **Related Information**: The "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; the APEC meeting will be held; the US plans to cooperate with South Korea; ADP released US employment data [50] - **Logic Analysis**: The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply of tin mines is tight, and production in September decreased. Demand is slowly recovering [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; wait and see for options [52][53] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [55] - **Logic Analysis**: The operating rate of northwest silicon plants is high, and southwest plants will stop furnaces. Demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloys is stable, and polysilicon production is expected to decrease. There may be inventory reduction, and prices are recommended to be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy [56][58] - **Strategy Suggestion**: High - throw and low - suck, buy on dips; no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money put options [59][60][61] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [63] - **Logic Analysis**: Southwest polysilicon production capacity reduces the operating load, and production in November is expected to decrease. Demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. There will be inventory accumulation, but at a reduced rate. The price is under short - term pressure [64] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce short - term long positions and buy on dips; conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts; hold bought call options [65][66][67] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 660 to 82,900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,378 lots in positions and an increase of 190 in Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts. Spot prices increased [69] - **Important Information**: Some companies obtained lithium - related mining rights or signed cooperation agreements [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is driven by power and energy storage, and supply is tight. Inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The market is bullish, and prices are rising [69][70] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [71][72][73]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The cost of polysilicon production will increase as the dry season approaches in Southwest China in November, and some enterprises have started to reduce raw material input and production [2]. - The demand side is relatively weak, with the demand for polysilicon from downstream photovoltaic industry chains declining, component tender prices falling, and concentrated projects being postponed [2]. - Although N-type silicon materials maintain a certain premium ability, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the overall gross profit margin of the industry is narrowing [2]. - The high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand, while the US tariff policy has loosened, driving the growth of energy storage system exports, but it is difficult to completely offset the negative impact of the European market [2]. - The demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America is surging, buffering the decline in the demand side to some extent [2]. - The rumored policy of strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation has boosted market confidence, but the specific details and implementation time are still unclear [2]. - There are rumors of downstream photovoltaic capacity integration, which stimulates the increase of polysilicon prices, but the subsequent weakening of the demand side will still have a counter - effect. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 54,990 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 635 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 118,430 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 3,498 lots; the basis between December and January contracts is 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,820 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 420 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon is 52,980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.36 yuan/piece, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 US dollars/kg; the basis of polysilicon is - 1,375 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 145 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,170 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 215 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 602.27 tons; the monthly output is 402,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, with a day - on - day increase of 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,292 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price is 2,350 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 270 US dollars/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month increase of 1,016,000 kilowatts; the average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/watt, unchanged; the comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 yuan/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 19,491,300 units; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,706,500 units; the monthly average import price is 0.3 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 US dollars/unit [2]. Industry News - On October 28, GCL mentioned in a CCTV interview that 17 enterprises have basically signed, and the establishment of the consortium is expected to be completed within the year [2].

Core Viewpoint - Daqo New Energy (DQ.US) reported a strong performance in Q3, with significant revenue growth and a turnaround in net profit, leading to a pre-market stock increase of 3.6% to $30.49 [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 was approximately $244.6 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 23% [1] - Adjusted net profit under non-GAAP standards was about $3.7 million, a significant recovery from an adjusted net loss of approximately $57.9 million in Q2 [1] Sales Performance - The sales volume of polysilicon reached 42,406 tons, showing a remarkable quarter-over-quarter increase of 134% [1] Analyst Rating - Roth Capital maintained a "Neutral" rating for Daqo New Energy and raised its target price from $25 to $30 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of n-type polysilicon remains stable this week, with transaction prices ranging from 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, and an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan per ton, showing no change compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 and 51,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 50,500 yuan per ton, also remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The average price of n-type polysilicon is 53,200 yuan per ton, indicating a stable market condition [1] Group 2: Production Data - There are currently 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers in operation [1] - The domestic polysilicon production in October is approximately 137,000 tons, which is a 6.2% increase month-on-month and 5.4% higher than expected [1] - The increase in production is attributed to some companies slightly raising their operating rates to dilute costs as they enter the fourth quarter [1]

Core Insights - The current market for polysilicon remains oversupplied, with prices stabilizing due to weak demand and limited supply adjustments [1][2] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type recycled polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,200 CNY/ton, showing no change from the previous period [1] - The average price for n-type granular silicon is 50,500 CNY/ton, also remaining stable [1] - The average price for n-type dense silicon is 49,700 CNY/ton, with no fluctuations reported [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic polysilicon market is experiencing low activity, with only 3-4 main signing companies and a decrease in order scale [1] - The monthly production of polysilicon is expected to rise to approximately 130,000 tons in Q4, an increase of 8.3% month-on-month, but many companies are nearing saturation in order intake [1][2] - In October, domestic polysilicon production reached about 137,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.2%, exceeding expectations by 5.4% [1] Future Outlook - Production plans for major manufacturers in the Southwest region indicate significant reductions in output for November and December, with total monthly production expected to drop to 125,000 to 130,000 tons [2] - Despite stable downstream operating rates, the inventory accumulation of polysilicon is anticipated to slow down in the last two months of the year, yet the industry inventory is likely to exceed 400,000 tons by the end of 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic polysilicon market is experiencing low activity, with stable prices influenced by weak supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. - The average transaction price for n-type recycled polysilicon is reported at 53,200 yuan/ton, while n-type granular silicon averages 50,500 yuan/ton, both showing no change from the previous period [1][3]. - The number of main signing enterprises in the market has decreased to 3-4, and order volumes have declined compared to the previous period, reflecting a weak trading atmosphere [1][2]. Group 2 - In October, domestic polysilicon production reached approximately 137,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.2%, exceeding expectations by 5.4% due to some companies slightly increasing their operating rates to reduce costs [2]. - It is anticipated that inventory levels will exceed 20,000 tons in October, marking a new high for monthly cumulative inventory this year [2]. - The monthly production of polysilicon is expected to decline to 125,000 to 130,000 tons in November and December due to planned production cuts by major manufacturers in the Southwest region and maintenance in Inner Mongolia [2].

Core Points - Daqo Energy's stock increased by 5.2%, reaching 29.92 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 466 million CNY and a market capitalization of 64.185 billion CNY [1] - Daqo Energy, established on February 22, 2011, specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of high-purity polysilicon, with 97.95% of its revenue coming from this main business [1] Shareholder Analysis - Huatai-PB Fund's Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) reduced its holdings by 570,700 shares in Q3, now holding 11.0963 million shares, representing 0.52% of the circulating shares, with an estimated floating profit of approximately 16.4226 million CNY [2] - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF was established on May 4, 2012, with a current size of 425.581 billion CNY, yielding 22.11% this year, ranking 2622 out of 4216 in its category [2] Fund Performance - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF's manager, Liu Jun, has a tenure of 16 years and 152 days, managing assets totaling 542.504 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 151.3% and the worst being -45.64% [3] Top Holdings - Huatai-PB Fund's Huatai-PB Prosperity Select Mixed A (009636) holds 258,000 shares of Daqo Energy, accounting for 1.59% of the fund's net value, with an estimated floating profit of about 381,800 CNY [4] - The Huatai-PB Prosperity Select Mixed A was established on June 17, 2020, with a current size of 466 million CNY, yielding 23.71% this year, ranking 4022 out of 8155 in its category [4] Fund Manager Information - Zhao Jie, the manager of Huatai-PB Prosperity Select Mixed A, has a tenure of 3 years and 54 days, managing assets totaling 55.5 million CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 4.25% and the worst being -9.26% [5]