Group 1 - The stock price of Xinda Real Estate (600657) closed at 4.0 yuan on September 5, 2025, with no change, a turnover rate of 0.7%, a trading volume of 199,100 hands, and a transaction amount of 79.31 million yuan [1] - On September 5, the net outflow of main funds was 774.7 thousand yuan, accounting for 9.77% of the total transaction amount, while retail investors had a net inflow of 527.13 thousand yuan, accounting for 6.65% of the total transaction amount [1][3] - The Ministry of Finance has transferred all its shares in China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. to Central Huijin Investment Ltd., and the National Financial Supervision Administration has formally approved this equity change [1] Group 2 - The equity change was completed on September 4, 2025, and the company received a notification regarding the completion of the equity structure change from its controlling shareholder [1][3]

廖市无双：短期波动已经安然度过了吗？20250907 摘要 近期市场走势如何，投资者应如何看待当前的市场波动？ 人民币汇率自 7 月中旬以来对美元呈现升值趋势，受益于美联储加息周 期接近尾声和美国经济数据疲软，预计汇率走强将对权益市场形成支撑， 系统性慢牛行情或将更加明显。 中长线看好股市前景，以上证指数自 2015 年高点下跌后的反弹 0.618 计算，目标位在 4,132 点。然而，近期市场波动增大，需警惕短线双向 波动压力。 上证指数在 3,731 点附近获得支撑，与 21 年顶部相吻合，并落在 20 日 均线与中线上升趋势线之间，可能成为本轮调整底部，是潜在买入机会。 创业板指数虽表现较强，但成交量下降，显示潜在卖压增加，短期调整 尚未结束，9 月份可能面临波动放大风险，需保持谨慎。 当前市场风格偏向大盘成长，行业板块中电力与新能源表现突出，但需 注意资金在高位硬科技板块和新能源板块间的轮动，以及固态电池等概 念炒作风险。 建议逢低加仓，增加金融板块配置，减少科技板块配置。关注大金融、 地产和重资产基建等相对稳定且具备较好中长期投资价值的领域。 当前市场最强风格仍为大盘成长，与基金重仓风格高度相关。高 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the comparison between the U.S. and Chinese economies, particularly in terms of monetary policy, economic structure, and stock market performance - Analysis of the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and its dynamics Core Points and Arguments Economic Structure and Monetary Policy - Significant differences exist between the economic structures and monetary policies of the U.S. and China, with the U.S. having a high proportion of second-hand home transactions and fixed-rate mortgages, while China focuses on new homes and floating-rate mortgages [2][4] - The evaluation of stock valuations and risk premiums should focus on relative levels rather than absolute values, considering macroeconomic environments and corporate earnings [1][8] Stock Market Valuation and Risk Premium - The risk premium in the U.S. stock market is extremely low, even negative, potentially due to issues in the calculation of the risk-free rate, warranting further investigation [9] - Differences in valuations between U.S. and Hong Kong stocks can be explained by the credit cycle, with China's credit pulse slope being stronger but with a smaller magnitude and opposite direction compared to the U.S. [10] Credit Cycle and Economic Demand - The credit cycle influences economic demand and profitability through three core sectors: government, traditional private demand, and emerging investments [11] - The determination of whether a credit cycle has begun depends on relative return rates, necessitating attention to the relationship between interest rates and rental yields [18] Hong Kong Stock Market Dynamics - The funding landscape in the Hong Kong stock market is primarily driven by retail and trading investors, with foreign capital not significantly returning [32] - The structural differences between Hong Kong and A-share markets are notable, particularly in sector composition and investor sentiment [5][27] Macroeconomic Indicators - Key indicators for overseas asset allocation include cyclical indicators, U.S. ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices, CPI vs. PCE, and ADP employment data [3] - The U.S. has experienced monetary tightening with strong economic performance, while China has seen monetary easing with weaker growth [4] Investment Opportunities and Risks - Long-term growth factors include population dynamics, capital investment, and technological advancement, with new consumption trends linked to demographic changes [12] - The relationship between corporate competitive advantages and the phenomenon of "anti-involution" is complex, with certain sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and robotics still presenting significant investment opportunities [13] Market Predictions and Trends - The U.S. economy is expected to stabilize or improve in the second half of the year, influenced by the implementation of the "Great Beautiful Act" and ongoing AI investments [28] - Current market conditions reflect a stable credit cycle with abundant liquidity, suggesting a need for strategic asset allocation rather than aggressive market entry [29] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The analysis framework for the Hong Kong stock market includes dynamic weighting methods based on southbound capital transaction ratios, highlighting the importance of local factors over foreign capital [27] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on market conditions is nuanced, with past rate cuts not always leading to positive market outcomes [22] - The current market's oscillation and structural characteristics suggest a cautious approach to investment, focusing on long-term positioning rather than short-term speculation [34]

房地产｜新政后市场变化解读 20250905 摘要 北京和上海的救市政策在短期内对市场成交量有小幅提振，但未能持续 增长，网签数据提升有限，表明政策对新增用户吸引力不足，未能有效 推动市场持续向好。 北京和上海的挂牌量在救市后出现波动，北京先增后减，上海持续降低， 显示市场相对平稳，未出现大规模抛售现象，但市场信心仍未得到有效 提振。 北京和上海房价未见明显上涨，部分区域跌幅扩大，北京月环比跌幅从- 1%扩大至-1.4%，上海外环外区域跌幅超过 1.3%，表明市场价格下行 压力依然存在。 全国楼市自 4 月以来持续恶化，但 7、8 月成交量企稳，优于去年同期， 价格跌幅扩大，一线城市跌幅尤为明显，广州、北京、上海跌幅超过全 国平均水平，深圳出现异常波动。 冰山 100 指数显示全国楼市稳定在负 12%水平，一线城市表现较差， 927 救市政策对一线城市效果最佳，但效果消退后，一线城市表现再次 落后。 从全国数据来看，自 4 月份以来楼市不断恶化。实时成交量逐步下滑，但七八 月开始企稳，比去年（2024 年）明显好转。今年（2025 年）没有出现去年 （2024 年）7 月至 9 月严重下滑情况。然而价格自 4 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The central bank may restart government bond trading, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [4][5] - The government aims to enhance service consumption and has announced measures to optimize service supply capabilities [5] - Recent employment data from the US shows a significant decline in non-farm employment, indicating a cooling labor market [9][10] Group 2: Coal Industry - The coal market is experiencing a transition between thermal and non-thermal coal, with expectations for coal prices to rise [31] - The current operating rate of coal mines is low, and port inventories are decreasing, which supports a potential price rebound [31][32] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies benefiting from both cyclical and dividend strategies within the coal sector [34] Group 3: Real Estate and Construction - New housing transaction volumes have decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, while policies in Shenzhen have been relaxed to stimulate the market [41][42] - The REITs market is showing strong performance, with significant growth in transaction volumes and a favorable environment for high-dividend assets [35][36] - The construction materials index has underperformed compared to the broader market, but the sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support [27][41] Group 4: Thermal Management Materials - The thermal management materials industry is projected to grow significantly, driven by the demand for high-performance electronic devices [20][21] - The market for heat pipes and temperature equalization plates is expected to expand, with local procurement trends emerging due to supply chain considerations [23] - Companies like Suzhou Tianmai are positioned to benefit from this growth due to their early investments in advanced thermal management technologies [23]

Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - The prediction made by Jack Ma in 2017 about future housing prices being as low as "scallions" has come true, with average national housing prices now down over 30% [1][3] - Cities like Zhengzhou, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang have seen significant price declines, followed by major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [3] - Prices in lower-tier cities have dropped to levels around 3,000 to 4,000 yuan per square meter, aligning with Ma's prediction [3] Group 2: Investment Risks - Investment risks are rising across various sectors, including real estate, stocks, funds, and bank products, as bank deposit rates hit historical lows [4][8] - The average loss for stock investors in 2024 is projected to be around 140,000 yuan, with public funds experiencing average losses of 20-30% [8] - The risk associated with bank wealth management products is increasing due to declining money market yields and rising bond market risks [8] Group 3: Entrepreneurship Challenges - Many individuals are withdrawing savings to invest in entrepreneurship, but the success rate is extremely low, described as "nine deaths and one life" [10] - Consumer behavior has shifted towards more rational spending post-pandemic, leading to a long-term oversupply in the market [12] - High rental costs for commercial spaces and intense competition from established companies further diminish the chances of entrepreneurial success [14]

报告导读： 上周住房成交回落。9月5日深圳市出台进一步优化调整房地产政策，放松力度 大于京沪，这将有助于引入包括外地购买力在内的市场需求。维持行业"增持"评级。 2025年8月35城月度库存出清周期环比继续回升 ：35城2025年8月可售面积为31387万平，环比上个月0.64%，同比-4.42%。35城2025年8月库存出清周期（按 12个月月均计算）为22.09个月，环比上个月1.89%，同比去年-4.91%。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 上周大中城市成交回落。 9月5日深圳市发布《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》。我们认为深圳政策的放松力度大于北京、上海，有助于引 入包括外地购买力在内的市场需求，预计全年市场"止跌回稳"的趋势不变。维持行业"增持"评 ...

Supply - The average operating rate of 247 sample blast furnaces nationwide decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 81.8%, which is 4.8 and 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] - The average operating rate of coking enterprises fell by 1.8 percentage points to 68.4%, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than 2024 but 4.1 percentage points lower than 2019[2] - The average operating rate of cement grinding fell by 2.3 percentage points to 40.3%, marking a new low compared to the same period in recent years, and is 10.1 and 27.4 percentage points lower than 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] Demand - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 11.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%[5] - The average sales area of second-hand homes in 18 cities decreased by 4.5% month-on-month but saw a year-on-year increase of 20.3%[5] - The apparent demand for steel increased by 0.1% to approximately 842.8 million tons, but the absolute value is the lowest in recent years, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[4] Prices - The South China Index decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase narrowing to 4.0%[7] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 12.4%[7] - Pork prices fell by 1.1% to approximately 19.9 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year decline expanding to 27.3%[7] Inventory - Coastal power plants' coal inventory decreased by 1.5% month-on-month, but the absolute value remains high, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%[8] - Steel and electrolytic aluminum inventories increased by 4.7% and 6.0% month-on-month, respectively, with both being at near historical lows[8] - Asphalt inventory decreased by 7.0% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 25.3%[8] Liquidity - The central bank net withdrew 10,086 billion yuan through OMO in the past half month, indicating a tightening of liquidity[10] - The issuance of local special bonds reached 4,449.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 32,819.7 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, achieving 74.6% of the annual target[11]

（原标题：周末，不平静！降息利好来了！） 【导读】回顾周末大事，汇总十大券商最新研判 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，这个周末不平静！一起回顾下发生了哪些大事，以及看看券商分 析师们的最新研判。 周末大事 十四届全国政协经济委员会副主任易会满被查 十四届全国政协经济委员会副主任易会满涉嫌严重违纪违法，目前正接受中央纪委国家监委纪律审查和监察调查。 公开资料显示，易会满，男，汉族，1964年12月出生，高级管理人员工商管理硕士。自2016年6月起任中国工商银行股份有限公司董事长、执行董 事。2019年1月至2024年2月，易会满任中国证监会党委书记、中国证监会主席。2024年6月，任第十四届全国政协委员、经济委员会驻会副主任。 9月6日，中国证监会党委召开会议，传达中央纪委国家监委对易会满涉嫌严重违纪违法进行纪律审查和监察调查的决定。驻证监会纪检监察组有 关同志参加会议。与会同志一致表示，坚决拥护党中央决定，坚决拥护中央纪委国家监委决定。证监会党委书记、主席吴清主持会议。 美国关税政策迎来重大调整！黄金、钨、铀等关键商品获豁免 美国关税政策迎来重大调整。据最新消息，美国总统特朗普宣布，从全球国别关税中豁免石墨、钨 ...

Major Events - Yunzhisheng (09678) is actively exploring new sustainable business models and project opportunities [1] - Junshi Biosciences (01877) achieved the primary endpoint in the Phase III clinical study of anti-IL-17A monoclonal antibody for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis [1] - Hutchison China MediTech (00013) will present the latest data on several self-developed compounds at the 2025 World Lung Cancer Congress and the 2025 Annual Meeting of the Chinese Society of Clinical Oncology [1] - InnoCare Pharma-B (09606) reached the primary endpoint in the Phase III clinical trial of DB-1303/BNT323 for HER2-positive unresectable or metastatic breast cancer patients [1] - Heng Rui Medicine (01276) plans to license its Class 1 innovative drug HRS-1893 to Braveheart Bio to expand into overseas markets [1] Financial Data - Aoyuan Group (01813) reported a pre-sale amount of 611 million yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [1] - GAC Group (02238) sold 135,700 vehicles in August, a year-on-year decline of 8.43% [1] - Zhongliang Holdings (02772) recorded a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 8.29 billion yuan in the first eight months, a year-on-year decrease of 32.71% [1] - Xiehe New Energy (00182) reported a total equity power generation of 507.64 GWh in August, a year-on-year increase of 6.07% [1] - Zhengrong Real Estate (06158) had a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 2.99 billion yuan in the first eight months, a year-on-year decrease of 30.8% [1]