Core Viewpoint - The succession issue at leading pig farming company Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) has garnered attention as founder Qin Yinglin discusses the company's internationalization strategy and the performance of the next-generation management team during the 2024 annual shareholder meeting. The company has recently emerged from a prolonged low cycle in the pig market, achieving a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 24.43% year-on-year increase [1][5][6]. Group 1: Company Growth and Performance - Muyuan Foods has experienced a remarkable revenue growth of approximately 52 times over the past decade, with 2024 revenue reaching 137.947 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company has successfully reduced its pig farming costs, achieving a cost of 12.4 yuan per kilogram in April 2025, with a target of 12 yuan per kilogram for the entire year [6]. - In 2022, Muyuan Foods saw a significant net profit increase of 92.16%, recovering to 13.266 billion yuan after a challenging period in 2021 when net profit dropped by 74.85% [5][6]. Group 2: Succession and Management - Qin Yinglin has established a succession plan, training a second-generation management team with an average age of under 35, composed of business veterans who have grown from the grassroots level [7][8]. - Qin Yinglin's son, Qin Muyuan, is responsible for the meat processing segment and has articulated the development strategy for this sector during the shareholder meeting [7]. Group 3: Internationalization Strategy - Muyuan Foods is advancing its internationalization strategy, including plans for a Hong Kong stock listing to create an international capital operation platform [6]. - The company aims to address the urgent needs of pig farming operators in Southeast Asia regarding disease control and facility upgrades, which presents opportunities for overseas business expansion [6].

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 19 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 生猪价格走弱，巴西爆发禽流感 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250512-20250516） 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：猪价短期维持震荡，4 月第三方产能震荡略增。 联系人 本周涌益数据最新猪价为 14.58 元/kg，出栏均重为 129.71kg，15Kg 仔猪报价 630 元/头，175kg 标肥价差降至 0.36 元/kg。近期二育入场情绪谨慎，猪价展现弱势， 短期猪价或维持震荡；中长期看全年总体供给偏多，猪价弱势较为确定。产能方面， 3 月统计局全国能繁母猪存栏量 4039 万头，同比增长 1.2%，环比 24 年底降 0.96%， ...

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.05.12-2025.05.16）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2620.55 点(周环比+0.05%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3889.09 点（周环比+1.12%），深证综指收于 1986.50 点（周环比+0.80%），上证综指收于 3367.46 点（周环比+0.76%），科 创板收于 995.24 点（周环比-1.10%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。从一级行业涨跌幅来看，本周排名前三的为 美容护理（周环比+3.08%）、非银金融（周环比+2.49%)、汽车（周环比+2.40%），农林牧渔（周环比+0.05%）排名第 20。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 129.71 公斤/头，生猪均重处于历史同期较高位置，同时本周行业冻品库容率环比-0.12pct 至 16.38%，近期生猪存在增重、二育以及冻品入库等累库行为，累库下生猪价格震荡，行业供给压力持续后移，预计生 猪价格随着供给的增加和库存端的压力释放存在下跌空间。目前关于猪价悲观预期已经在期货端有较为充分的释放， 而年后价格表现强于此前预期使得整体预期略有上修，产能端缓慢的补充状态对2025年猪价的担忧存在 ...

Group 1: Pig Farming - The pig farming sector is expected to achieve profitability in 2024/25 Q1, with a focus on waiting for a capacity inflection point in 2025 [2] - The average profit per head in the industry is projected to be 170/86 RMB in 2024/25 Q1, with leading companies exceeding 200 RMB per head in 2024 [2][3] - Despite profitability, the current capacity expansion is primarily led by low-cost listed companies, with expectations of steady increases in pig output and a forecasted average price range of 14-15 RMB per kilogram for the year [2][3] Group 2: Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken industry is experiencing high inventory levels, with chick prices increasing by 6-7% year-on-year, while broiler prices are expected to decline by 10-15% due to weak demand [3] - The yellow chicken sector is projected to see a slight decrease in output, with a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, but leading companies are improving profitability through cost reduction [3] - The overall supply of white and yellow chickens is expected to remain ample in 2025, with a focus on observing demand recovery and the impact of avian influenza [3] Group 3: Feed and Veterinary Industry - The feed and veterinary sectors are facing increased competition and declining profitability due to reduced downstream inventory and weak consumption in 2024 [4] - However, profitability in the aquaculture feed sector is expected to improve in the second half of 2024, with significant growth in pig feed profitability anticipated in 2025 Q1 [4] - The veterinary sector is also expected to see continued recovery in 2025, particularly in raw materials [4] Group 4: Pet Industry - The pet sector is experiencing robust growth driven by stable overseas orders, declining chicken costs, and the depreciation of the RMB, with domestic brands gaining market share [5] - The performance of the pet sector is expected to reach new highs in 2024/25 Q1, with continued growth anticipated in 2025 due to strong demand resilience and ongoing domestic brand replacement [5] - The pet economy is viewed as a scarce track with strong demand, and leading companies are expected to enhance market share through product innovation and brand development [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 农林牧渔 关注巴西商业家禽确认禽流感病毒 本周热点：关注巴西商业家禽确认禽流感病毒。巴西农业和畜牧业部于 5 月 15 日证实在南里奥格兰德州商业家禽饲养员中检测到高致病性禽 流感病毒。对于事件的影响我们解读如下：1）本次发生的禽流感病毒 位于南里奥格兰德州，该州在华注册企业有 8 家，均已于 2024 年 7 月 17 日起处于暂停进口状态，若本次禽流感没有进一步影响州外或海关 总署公告对巴西全国的进口停滞，则实质影响相对有限；2）我国鸡肉 的进口依赖度并不高，2024 年进口鸡肉 97.6 万吨，而白羽鸡肉产量 1778.9 万吨，进口依赖度 5.5%，但是由于国人对于鸡副的需求较多， 进口鸡肉主要以爪翅等鸡副为主，占比达到约 76%，而巴西是我国重 要的鸡副进口国，2024 年自巴西进口冻鸡翼、冻鸡爪占产品总进口比 例分别为 75%、43%，若后续对于巴西停滞进口，则可能引发鸡副价 格的上涨，进而带动整体鸡肉价的上升，建议关注巴西禽流感后续进 展。 生猪养殖：本周全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价 14.63 元/kg，较上周下降 ...

今年，养殖端产能释放。从3月直到5月中旬，猪价基本处于持续横盘状态，难涨难跌。 猪价年内低点 是否已过？机构分析，5—10月猪价或震荡下滑，年内低点或出现在四季度。 据农业农村部监测，5月16日，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.94元/公斤，与上周五（5月9 日）的20.62元/公斤相比，上涨1.6%。本周的平均价格为20.88元/公斤，与上周均价持平。 本周国内生 猪价格以下跌为主，周均价环比下滑。 另据中国养猪网的数据，5月16日，生猪（外三元）价格为14.74元/公斤，与上周五（5月9日）的14.86 元/公斤相比，下降0.8%。从一周均价来看，本周生猪均价为14.81元/公斤，与上周14.87元/公斤相比， 下降0.4%。 在供应方面，自2024年5月起，国内能繁母猪存栏量开始增加，到2025年3月，适重生猪供应能力有所回 升。2025年4月至9月，生猪出栏水平预计会显著提升。因此，2025年5月国内适重猪源供应将增加，标 猪出栏计划也会增多。春节后养殖端控重挺价，中小标猪出栏意愿不高，导致当前生猪出栏均重达到 124.12公斤。随着南北地区气温的上升，标肥价差倒挂明显， 市场对中大猪的需求不足 ...

证券代码：000876 证券简称：新 希 望 债券代码：127015、127049 债券简称：希望转债、希望转 2 新希望六和股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-02 投 资 者 关 系 活 动类别 □特定对象调研 □ 分析师会议 □ 媒体采访 √ 业绩说明会 □ 新闻发布会 □ 路演活动 □ 现场参观 □ 其他 参 与 单 位 名 称 及 人 员 姓名 投资者网上提问 时间 2025 年 5 月 15 日（周四）下午 15:00~17:00 地点 公司通过全景网"投资者关系互动平台"（https://ir.p5w.net）采用网络远程的方式 召开业绩说明会 上 市 公 司 接 待 人 员 姓 名 新希望六和股份有限公司 董事、总裁 陶玉岭 董事会秘书 赵 亮 财务总监 史 涵 独立董事 谢佳扬 投 资 者 关 系 活 动 主 要 内 容 介 绍 投资者提出的问题及公司回复情况： （根据问题类型做了归类整理，剔除了部分重复的，或无实质内容的问题） 一、市场环境与发展战略 1、行业以后的发展前景怎样？公司之后的盈利有什么增长点？ 对于养猪业务，到处跑马圈地上项目的阶段已经过去了，今后主要是精益求精 ...

值得一提的是，伴随着生猪养殖业务逐步走向稳健发展状态，海外饲料业务有望成为新希望发力的下一 个增长点。 新希望财务总监史涵在本次业绩说明会上表示，公司看好海外饲料业务的发展，未来海外饲料业务将成 为其业务增长的"第三极"。公司从去年下半年开始通过一系列规划，计划未来3年至5年对海外有300万 从今年一季度来看，大部分A股生猪养殖领域公司的净利润实现盈利，同比显著提升。中关村物联网产 业联盟副秘书长袁帅认为，2025年，生猪养殖行业整体发展趋势呈现出积极态势。 "一方面，猪肉的市场需求有望保持稳定增长，另一方面，行业规模化、一体化进程的加速推进，将进 一步提升生猪养殖的效率和竞争力。与此同时，行业面临着猪价波动、饲料原材料价格上涨以及动物疫 病防控等因素带来的挑战。因此，生猪养殖企业还需要密切关注市场动态，加强风险管理，通过技术创 新和成本控制来应对市场变化，以实现可持续发展。"袁帅说道。 从新希望的经营状况来看，公司在一季度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为4.45亿元，这是公司近三 年来首次一季度盈利。其中，饲料业务表现亮眼，生猪业务在成本改善和猪价相对稳定的情况下，也实 现了一定程度盈利。 新希望相关负责人 ...

养殖行业 24 年报及 25 一季报综述：养殖 盈利大幅改善，关注龙头企业投资机遇 2025 年 5 月 16 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 | | | 投资摘要： 农林牧渔行业：行业收入整体稳定，养殖链盈利大幅改善。2024 年 SW 农林牧渔行业整体实现营业总收入 12411.05 亿元， 同比下滑 1.67%；归母净利润 479.85 亿元，相比 23 年扭亏。2025Q1SW 农林牧渔行业实现营业总收入 2907.39 亿元，同 比增长 8.09%；归母净利润 133.35 亿元，相比去年同期大幅增长。对应 2024 年 SW 农林牧渔行业 ROE 转正，25Q1 同比 持续改善，经营性现金流净额明显改善。24 年大宗农产品价格低位，致使饲料产品价格随之下行，对板块收入影响较大；禽 养殖、水产饲料和宠物板块利润增长表现较好，畜禽饲料和生猪养殖盈利同比转正，共同带动业绩高增。 生猪：盈利大幅改善，关注成本领先的优质产能。2024 年牧原股份、温氏股份和新希望收入同比分别增长 24.43%、16.64% 和-27.27%，归母净利润同比分别增长 519.42、244.46%和 90.50%。上市猪企 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, the national average selling price of live pigs was 14.80 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 1.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.95% [6][18] - The supply gap in May is expected to lead to a further increase in the price center of live pigs, driven by limited increases in supply and improving demand [6][18] - The average weight of pigs sold is expected to gradually decline, but the narrowing price difference between different grades of pigs will have limited pressure on prices [7][22] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - April saw a non-seasonal increase in pig prices, with expectations for further price increases in May due to supply constraints and improving demand [6][18] - The average price of live pigs in April was 14.80 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 1.33% [6][18] - The slaughter volume in April was 4.213 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 4.54% but a year-on-year increase of 6.76% [6][18] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs is expected to be limited in May due to previous culling and disease impacts, while demand for pork is showing marginal improvement [6][18] - The planned output for May is expected to increase by 1.98% compared to actual output in April [6][18] Profitability and Market Performance - The average profit for self-bred pigs in April was 69.44 yuan/head, a month-on-month increase of 63.63% [8][26] - The number of breeding sows in April increased by 0.96% month-on-month [8][26] - The price of 15kg piglets reached 630 yuan/head, indicating a high price level during the replenishment season [8][26] Company Performance - In April, 12 listed pig farming companies collectively sold 16.2368 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 37.22% [9][28] - Major companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs reported significant year-on-year increases in sales volume [9][28] - The average selling prices varied among companies, with some experiencing increases while others saw declines [9][35]