7月28日，东华能源今日收盘10.16元，上涨3.04%，滚动市盈率PE（当前股价与前四季度每股收益总和 的比值）达到36.33倍，创88天以来新低，总市值160.13亿元。 从行业市盈率排名来看，公司所处的石油行业行业市盈率平均12.99倍，行业中值30.50倍，东华能源排 名第14位。 股东方面，截至2025年3月31日，东华能源股东户数27166户，较上次增加2032户，户均持股市值35.28 万元，户均持股数量2.76万股。 东华能源股份有限公司的主营业务是公司需遵守《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第3号——行 业信息披露》中化工行业的披露要求公司的主要产品是聚丙烯。 最新一期业绩显示，2025年一季报，公司实现营业收入79.80亿元，同比12.18%；净利润5258.50万元， 同比-5.68%，销售毛利率4.72%。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)8东华能源36.3336.071.44160.13亿行业平均 12.9911.651.201839.46亿行业中值30.5034.641.6462.88亿1中国海油9.128.911.5712291.25亿2中国石油 9.45 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the current oil market is the interplay between policy soft power suppression and geopolitical risk premium, with the market in a rebalancing phase between policy suppression (US and EU) and resource autonomy (OPEC and Russia) [2] - Trump's erratic tariff policies are causing concerns about economic recession, leading to a withdrawal of long positions in oil and an increase in short positions, reflecting investor pessimism about demand [2][3] - OPEC's production increase expectations and the performance of major Asian oil importers, China and India, are critical variables influencing oil prices [1][2] Group 2 - OPEC predicts that by 2025, daily oil demand from non-OECD Asian countries will increase by 610,000 barrels, with China contributing 210,000 barrels and India 160,000 barrels [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has a more conservative forecast, estimating an increase of 81,000 barrels per day for China and 92,000 barrels for India, with a total increase of 352,000 barrels per day for non-OECD Asian countries [1] - Geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Middle East conflicts and supply disruptions in Iraq, are providing structural support for the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on crude oil is bearish, indicating that the price center will move down in the medium to long term [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market news is scarce, and oil prices maintain a volatile performance. The expectation of the summer consumption peak season is gradually weakening, and in the medium to long term, the supply - demand situation still shows a loosening trend, leading to a downward shift in the price center [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - **Price Changes**: SC crude oil decreased by 3.59% to 512.9 yuan/barrel, Brent crude oil dropped by 2.35% to 67.6 dollars/barrel, and WTI crude oil fell by 1.45% to 65.07 dollars/barrel [3][4]. - **Inventory Changes**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 316.9 million barrels to 419 million barrels, with a decline of 0.75%. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels [3]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Changes**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts increased by 27.36% to 110,980 tons [4]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Performance**: This week, oil prices closed lower, reaching a three - week low. The market is worried about the weakening US economy, and the expectation of the summer consumption peak season is cooling. OPEC+ may increase production at the next meeting, resulting in a generally weak oil price performance [6]. - **Spread Analysis**: The monthly spread weakened, while the internal - external spread remained stable. The forward curve showed a relatively strong performance at the near - end. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined, while the crack spread of jet fuel remained stable [9][21][29]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Supply Side** - **OPEC and Non - OPEC Countries**: In June 2025, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production increased compared to May [59]. - **US Production**: As of the week ending July 18, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1.02 million barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day, while crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day [84]. - **Demand Side** - **US Demand**: The refinery operating rate rose by 1.60% to 95.50%, and the implied demand for gasoline and distillates increased [122]. - **China Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in China decreased, while the capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units increased [131]. - **Inventory Side** - **US Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while Cushing inventory increased. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined [3][96]. 3.4 Macro - finance - The US dollar index rebounded, and the yield of US Treasury bonds increased. The EU and the US are expected to reach a framework trade agreement, and the third - round China - US trade negotiation will focus on extending the tariff truce period and geopolitical issues [3]. 3.5 CFTC Positions - The speculative long positions in WTI crude oil decreased [154].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The month spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly. US EIA commercial inventories decreased, while diesel inventories in ARA and Singapore continued to decline, and those in the US and China increased. The cracking spread of European diesel strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year-on-year. In China, refinery operations fluctuated, with Shandong local refineries increasing production. Recently, refinery inventories of gasoline and diesel increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened month-on-month, limiting the room for further boosting operations. The current peak season for crude oil demand, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near-term supply and demand of crude oil. However, the peak season factors have been largely realized, and the month spreads have recently started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non-OPEC production and near-term diesel inventories [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From July 21 - 25, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.87, BRENT by $0.74, and DUBAI by $0.12. The SC price increased by 4.00, and OMAN decreased by $0.69. Other related oil product prices also showed various changes [3]. 2. Daily News - Iran and three European countries agreed to restart nuclear negotiations as soon as possible. Trump said there is a 50 - 50 chance of reaching an EU agreement. OPEC clarified that the JMMC meeting on July 28 has no decision - making power on production levels. Venezuela's PDVSA is ready to resume joint - venture work under certain conditions. Trump is considering secondary sanctions on Russia, and Russian western port oil loading is expected to drop by 8% in August [3][4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of July 18, US crude oil exports increased by 33.7万桶/日, domestic production decreased by 10.2万桶, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 316.9万桶 (0.75%), and strategic petroleum reserve decreased by 20.0万桶 (0.05%). US crude product four - week average supply increased by 0.01% year - on - year. In China, the main refinery operating rate decreased by 0.26%, Shandong local refinery operating rate increased by 1.17%. Chinese refinery output of gasoline decreased and diesel increased, with gasoline inventory rising and diesel inventory falling. Both main and local refinery comprehensive profits decreased month - on - month [4][5].

7月21日，美国财政部长贝森特在接受CNBC采访时放话：中美下一轮会谈的核心议题，将从传统贸易争端转向中国从俄罗斯与伊朗购买石油的行为。他直 言，北京是"被制裁的伊朗石油与俄罗斯石油的主要买家"，并暗示美国可能对相关国家征收最高500%的"次级关税"。这一表态，标志着美国对华博弈的战 场正式转移——当关税大棒在新能源、芯片等领域收效甚微后，华盛顿试图以能源安全为切口，开辟中美较量的新前线。 2月10日起，中国对美国原油和液化天然气分别加征94%和99%关税，直接导致美国对华能源出口断崖式下跌。上半年，美国在中国原油进口来源国排名中 暴跌至第15位，3月后几乎再无美国油轮靠岸。贝森特的发言，实质是将能源与地缘政治捆绑：以"次级制裁"威胁切断中俄、中伊能源纽带。这一招直指中 国能源生命线——2025年中俄贸易额预计突破3000亿美元，能源占比超40%；中国进口的俄罗斯原油占其出口总量的47%，更通过"西伯利亚力量"管道接收 天然气，年增速达20%。 这场能源博弈的终局，不会由关税或制裁决定，而取决于谁能掌控"能源自主权"：中国以技术升级和多元布局锻造盾牌，美国则因战略透支与盟友离心渐显 疲态。当石油管道成为新战场 ...

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index showed mixed performance among bank stocks, while oil, coal, and electric power stocks declined [1][6] Banking Sector - Everbright Bank had a market capitalization of 242.84 billion with a trading volume of 0.38 billion, closing at 4.11, up by 0.03 (0.74%) [3] Insurance Sector - China Life Insurance had a market capitalization of 382.10 billion, with a trading volume of 1.46 billion, closing at 59.62, up by 1.12 (2.99%) [3] - China Pacific Insurance had a market capitalization of 371.44 billion, with a trading volume of 1.02 billion, closing at 38.61, up by 1.54 (2.65%) [3] - Ping An Insurance had a market capitalization of 1,085.69 billion, with a trading volume of 5.02 billion, closing at 8.64, up by 0.17 (2.01%) [3] Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai had a market capitalization of 1,806.43 billion, with a trading volume of 3.41 billion, closing at 122.78, down by 16.99 (-1.17%) [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu had a market capitalization of 221.85 billion, with a trading volume of 1.14 billion, closing at 1438.01, down by 3.73 (-2.01%) [3] - Wuliangye had a market capitalization of 476.58 billion, with a trading volume of 1.31 billion, closing at 181.85, down by 0.76 (-0.62%) [3] Technology Sector - Haiguang Information had a market capitalization of 246.59 billion, with a trading volume of 1.20 billion, closing at 341.73, down by 0.23 (-0.07%) [3] - Northern Huachuang had a market capitalization of 282.22 billion, with a trading volume of 4.45 billion, closing at 674.60, up by 1.30 (0.19%) [3] - Cambricon Technologies had a market capitalization of 32.38 billion, with a trading volume of 1.79 billion, closing at 139.31, down by 2.18 (-1.54%) [3] Energy Sector - Sinopec had a market capitalization of 269.58 billion, with a trading volume of 5.34 billion, closing at 5.88, down by 0.11 (-1.27%) [3] - PetroChina had a market capitalization of 1,566.66 billion, with a trading volume of 8.05 billion, closing at 8.56, down by 0.06 (-1.08%) [3] Automotive Sector - BYD had a market capitalization of 1,846.26 billion, with a trading volume of 5.87 billion, closing at 37.78, down by 0.47 (-2.26%) [3] Securities Sector - CITIC Securities had a market capitalization of 363.53 billion, with a trading volume of 32.66 billion, closing at 29.86, up by 0.41 (2.03%) [4] Consumer Electronics - Luxshare Precision had a market capitalization of 272.89 billion, with a trading volume of 23.13 billion, closing at 28.83, up by 0.17 (0.59%) [4] Home Appliances - Gree Electric had a market capitalization of 228.16 billion, with a trading volume of 10.44 billion, closing at 25.72, down by 0.09 (-0.19%) [4] Pharmaceutical Sector - Heng Rui Medicine had a market capitalization of 404.93 billion, with a trading volume of 4.53 billion, closing at 48.52, up by 4.61 (8.17%) [4]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 周五国际油价回落，布伦特10合约周度跌1.13%，sc09合约周度跌0.56%。三季度旺季以来石油市 场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%，OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的 供需盈余压力始终存在。美国政府有意放开雪弗龙在委内瑞拉的经营许可，委内瑞拉原油出口面临 20万桶/天左右的恢复。美日协议以利好落地后，市场对美国与欧盟、中国的贸易谈判走向存在乐观 预期，但我们认为与贸易战相关的利空风险在协议最终落地前始终存在,油价仍以震荡承压为主;8 月底、9月初伊核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 (责金属) 周五贵金属回落。近期美国经济数据体现韧性,美商务部长称8月1日关税上调最后期限不再延长。 美国与多个主要国家关税协议陆续达成，中美即将迎来新一轮谈判，超预期对抗概率较低，责金属 宽幅震荡为主。聚焦本周美联储会议鲍威尔表态是否出现边际变化。 【铜】 上周五铜价收跌，工业品"反内卷"题材下，铜市场交易情绪偏谨慎。美欧达成15%关税协议，美盘 铜价开盘走高。关注内外市场交易情绪变动，倾向 ...

原油2509： 1.基本面：美国与欧盟周日达成一项框架贸易协议，对欧盟大多数商品征收15%的进口关税，仅为威胁税率 的一半，从而避免了这两个盟友之间爆发更大规模的贸易战；中美两国高级谈判代表周一将在瑞典斯德哥 尔摩举行会晤，以解决作为世界前两大经济体贸易战核心的长期经济争端，旨在延长8月12日的关税临时 "休战"协议期限，避免大幅提高关税；四名OPEC+代表称，OPEC+联合部长级监督委员会不太可能在周一 开会时改变现有增产计划，并指出该联盟渴望恢复市场份额，而夏季需求正帮助吸收多余的石油供应；中 性 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-28原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 2.基差：7月25 ...

业内人士指出，石油期货价格的变动需要持仓资金的流动性支持，但是当前这种剧烈跌幅的背后，缺少 必要的持仓资金调整的支持。因此，今后只要疫情的恐慌性情绪一旦减弱或消退，油价将可能会有一段 时间的恢复性反弹。 据经济参考报报道，1月31日当周，石油输出国组织(OPEC)计划开会商议减产的消息短暂支撑了油价。 据接近欧佩克的消息人士透露，欧佩克希望将现行的减产协议有效期延长三个月至6月份。根据事态发 展，欧佩克可能加大减产力度。 今日(4日)24时，农历鼠年春节后首次成品油调价窗口将开启。机构指出，本轮计价周期内，国际油价 呈现下跌行情，节前原油变化率维持在负值低位。据机构测算，本次成品油价格大概率下调。 国际油价连续四周下跌 受市场恐慌情绪影响，国际原油价格上周下跌，为连续第四周下跌。数据显示，北京时间1月31日，纽 约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶51.56美元，跌幅达4.8%;3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油 期货价格当周下跌约4%，收于每桶58.16美元。 机构表示，中国市场作为全球最大的原油进口国，全球第二大原油消费国，此次新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情 的发生引发了市场对中国原油需求的担忧，同时引发全球投机基 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 周五国际油价回落，布伦特10合约周度跌1.13%，sc09合约周度跌0.56%。三季度旺季以来石油市 场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%，OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的 供需盈余压力始终存在。美国政府有意放开雪弗龙在委内瑞拉的经营许可，委内瑞拉原油出口面临 20万桶/天左右的恢复。美日协议以利好落地后，市场对美国与欧盟、中国的贸易谈判走向存在乐观 预期，但我们认为与贸易战相关的利空风险在协议最终落地前始终存在,油价仍以震荡承压为主;8 月底、9月初伊核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 (责金属) 周五贵金属回落。近期美国经济数据体现韧性,美商务部长称8月1日关税上调最后期限不再延长。 美国与多个主要国家关税协议陆续达成，中美即将迎来新一轮谈判，超预期对抗概率较低，责金属 宽幅震荡为主。聚焦本周美联储会议鲍威尔表态是否出现边际变化。 围绕"反内卷"题材交投降温，锌市资金偏谨慎，多头高位减仓，沪锌2.3万整数关承压。宏观、资 金情绪发酵过后，市场仍将回归基本面主逻辑，锌矿端供应 ...