中国筹展单位：中资投国际展览集团（CCTW）中资投科技发展（北京）有限公司 俄乌战争打了三年，还在打！西方的经济制裁还在持续！战火中的大俄，似乎已经刀枪不入！手握大把能源，千方百计也要突出重围！是危还是机............... 俄罗斯及远东地区具有影响力的石油、天然气和石化设备展览会之一 俄罗斯莫斯科石油天然气及石油化工技术展NEFTEGAZ展览会由德国杜塞尔多夫展览公司和俄罗斯EXPOCENTER联合主办。俄罗斯石油天然气及石油化工 技术展创办于1978年，展会同期还将举办石油和天然气俄罗斯国家论坛，这样的安排会为展商带来新的商机。 Neftegaz 是俄罗斯石油和天然气行业最大的贸易展览。它名列世界十大石油展之列。多年来,《贸易展览》已证明是一次大型国际活动,展示了石油和天然气 部门的最新设备和创新技术。得到俄罗斯能源部、俄罗斯工业和贸易部、俄罗斯工业家和企业家联盟、俄罗斯天然气协会、俄罗斯石油和天然气生产者联盟 的支持。俄罗斯工商会主办。尼夫特加兹被命名为 最好的品牌 作为业界最高效的贸易展示。国家石油和天然气论坛 是由俄罗斯能源部、俄罗斯工业和贸易 部、俄罗斯工业家和企业家联盟、俄罗斯工商会、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia is experiencing a significant economic transformation driven by the "Vision 2030" initiative, which aims to diversify its economy away from oil dependency and enhance its non-oil sectors, leading to increased investment opportunities and regional influence [1]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Situation and Regulation - Saudi Arabia's economy has shown increased vitality, with non-oil economic contributions rising to over 70%, primarily due to private sector expansion and emerging industries [2][7]. - The country is transitioning from an export-driven economy to one driven by domestic demand, with investment and consumption playing larger roles [2][20]. - The unemployment rate has dropped to a historical low, supported by a young population, rising female employment, and a high labor participation rate among expatriates [2][33]. Group 2: Regional Influence and Geopolitical Dynamics - Saudi Arabia plays a dual role as an economic engine and stabilizer in the Middle East, leveraging its strategic location and resource advantages to enhance regional cooperation and influence [3][77]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting towards a multipolar world, providing opportunities for deeper cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, particularly in infrastructure and energy sectors [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Development and Investment Trends - The manufacturing sector and high-tech industries in Saudi Arabia are accelerating under the "Vision 2030" framework, with significant progress in digital economy, green energy, and tourism [5][12]. - Foreign direct investment (FDI) is increasingly concentrated in manufacturing, construction, and services, indicating a growing confidence in the Saudi market [5][13]. - The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is evolving into a key driver of economic transformation, focusing on local investments and infrastructure projects [70][71]. Group 4: Trade and Economic Structure - Saudi Arabia's trade surplus remains robust, primarily driven by energy exports, although non-oil exports are gradually increasing [45][46]. - The country is reducing its reliance on oil exports, with oil accounting for 77.3% of total exports in 2023, down from 87.1% in 2011 [46][47]. - The import structure is shifting towards machinery and transport equipment, reflecting ongoing industrialization efforts [45][46]. Group 5: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Saudi Arabia's fiscal policy is undergoing reforms to enhance efficiency and sustainability, with a focus on reducing non-essential expenditures and increasing non-oil revenues [57][62]. - The monetary policy remains closely tied to the US dollar, with a stable exchange rate regime that limits policy flexibility [66][67]. - The PIF's restructuring and privatization initiatives are aimed at improving capital allocation and enhancing the sustainability of fiscal revenues [70][72].

乌克兰国家石油天然气公司表示，已与阿塞拜疆国家石油公司签署首份协议，通过跨巴尔干管道进口天 然气。 ...

证券研究报告 海外策略周报：关注贸易协议谈判进程 证券分析师 魏 伟 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001、BOT313 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001、BWH863 郝博韬投资咨询资格编号：S1060521110001 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年7月28日 1 ※ 核心观点 2 • 海外方面，本周海外市场风险偏好抬升，权益资产多数上涨。美国经济维持韧性，贸易谈判推进，市场风险偏好提升。全 球主要股指多数收涨。其中，MSCI全球股指上涨1.43%，道指、标普500、纳指分别上涨1.26%、1.46%、1.02%。10年 期美债收益率小幅回落4bps，美元指数下跌0.80%，COMEX黄金、ICE布油同步下跌0.51%、2.35%。港股方面，国内政 策催化集中落地，恒生指数继续上涨。国内方面，"反内卷"政策改善市场盈利预期；雅鲁藏布江水电站开工、海南自贸 港封关时间确定，带动相关产业链走强，国际投资者对港股配置意愿增强。恒生指数上涨2.27%，原材料、能源等事件催 化相关行业涨幅最高。 • 海外宏观层面，美国劳动力市场仍有韧性，房地产市场价格仍旧坚挺。1）美国劳动力市 ...

今日聚焦 1、大金重工：与某欧洲能源开发企业签署海上风电单桩基础优选供应商协议 合同总金额约5.47亿欧元 大金重工公告，全资子公司蓬莱大金与某欧洲能源开发企业签署了《海上风电单桩基础优选供应商协 议》，莱大金将作为优选供应商向某海上风电集群项目提供单桩。合同总金额约5.47亿欧元，约占公司 2022年度经审计营业收入的80%。 (资料图片) 2、*ST雪发：实控人张劲失联，尚无法确定失联具体原因 智通财经5月8日电，*ST雪发公告，近日，公司无法与公司实控人张劲取得联系，公司已与张劲的工作 单位联系询问其现状，截至目前，尚未收到回复，无法确定张劲失联的具体原因。目前，公司经营情况 正常。张劲除为公司实控人外，不在公司担任任何职务。张劲失联不会对公司日常经营构成重大影响。 3、欧菲光：部分董监高拟合计不低于1020万元增持股份 欧菲光公告，公司部分董事(不含独立董事)、监事、高管人员及核心管理人员计划6个月内，通过二级 市场集中竞价交易方式增持公司股份，拟增持金额为不低于60万元/人，合计不低于1020万元。增持计 划不设价格前提，增持主体将择机实施增持计划。 4、盛帮股份：获得比亚迪签发的中标通知书 盛帮股 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of collaboration between the Jinan Xicheng Party Branch and the Jinan Tianqiao District Fire Rescue Station to enhance fire safety through a党建共建 (Party Building Co-construction) activity [1][2] - The event included sharing valuable experiences in party organization construction, highlighting the integration of党建 (Party Building) into fire rescue responsibilities, and the role of party organizations in ensuring safety [1] - Firefighters conducted practical training sessions on the use of firefighting equipment, focusing on the operational guidelines for fire hydrants at gas stations and emergency response procedures for potential incidents [1] Group 2 - A consensus was reached to establish a long-term cooperation mechanism in fire safety promotion, emergency rescue collaboration, and regular training exercises to enhance safety management and emergency response capabilities [2] - Future initiatives will include joint educational activities, information sharing, and ongoing practical drills to improve safety awareness and collaborative emergency response efforts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The trading activity of the Chinese yuan on the Moscow Exchange has significantly increased in June, but the average daily trading volume remains below 100 billion rubles, indicating a recovery from a previous low rather than sustained growth [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Activity - In June, the total trading volume of "next-day delivery" yuan exceeded 1.58 trillion rubles, a 13% increase from May [2]. - The average daily trading volume also grew nearly 13% to 800 billion rubles, although it is still significantly lower than the levels seen in February and March, when daily trading volumes exceeded 1 trillion rubles [2]. - The increase in trading activity in June is attributed to higher oil prices at the end of the first quarter, which led to increased foreign exchange income for exporters [2]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate - By the end of June, the yuan's exchange rate was 1 yuan to 10.92 rubles, a slight increase of 2 kopecks from the beginning of the month [3]. - The exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range of 10.8 to 11 rubles per yuan during June, indicating a stabilization in the market [3]. - Analysts expect that the yuan's supply from exporters may decrease in July due to falling oil prices in April and May, which could lead to reduced foreign exchange sales [3]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Experts predict that the ruble will gradually depreciate in the second half of the year, with the average exchange rate expected to reach approximately 1 yuan to 11.7 rubles and 1 dollar to 85 rubles by the fourth quarter [4]. - Factors contributing to the ruble's depreciation include seasonal import demand, increased foreign exchange spending for summer travel, and potential interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia [4]. - Analysts believe that the yuan's exchange rate will rise in the second half of the year, while the ruble will experience moderate depreciation due to seasonal factors and monetary policy [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the recent interest rate cut by the Russian central bank from 20% to 18%, with a forecast to further reduce it to 14% by the end of the year, highlighting the implications for savings and loans in the Russian economy [3][5][10] - The interest rate of 18% is significantly higher than in many other countries, making saving attractive but borrowing extremely costly, which could stifle economic activity [4][6][12] - The central bank's decision to cut rates is seen as a response to decreasing inflation, which has dropped from a peak of 12.8% to 4.3%, indicating a potential stabilization of the economy [6][8][9] Group 2 - The central bank's rate cut is described as a "medicine" for the economy, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on businesses and encouraging investment, as high rates previously restricted economic growth [7][10] - The article outlines three key factors that give the central bank confidence in lowering rates: reduced inflation, the need for economic recovery, and a stabilized currency exchange rate [8][9][12] - Despite the rate cuts, the article warns that the underlying issues in the Russian economy, such as technological isolation and labor shortages, remain unresolved, suggesting that the economic recovery may be slow and challenging [11][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Brent and WTI may still have a chance to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel this year, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [5]. - In the short - term, the valuation is at a medium level and there is still a chance to rise. The strategy includes short - term bottom - fishing and long - term high - selling [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - This week's view on crude oil is to hold long positions. In the third quarter, there may still be a chance to challenge $80. Supply shows that Russian crude oil supply is resilient, and non - Russian supply has significant changes. Demand is differentiated, with different trends in refineries and refined oil products in different regions [5]. 3.2 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds. Overseas inflation rises, and the service industry PMI rebounds. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [11][16][17]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC + core member countries: Saudi Arabia leads the August OPEC + production increase plan. Iraq's Kirkuk crude oil plans to resume exports by the end of the year. The UAE reduces the allocation of Murban crude oil. Other countries also have various production and export situations [7]. - Non - OPEC +: The US shale oil production and drilling rig numbers decline. Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and other countries also have different supply changes. OPEC + is accelerating the exit from production cuts, and non - OPEC + supply is expected to increase in 2025 [8]. 3.4 Demand - The spot demand turns weak marginally. In different regions, China's new refining capacity will be released in the second half of the year. Asian and European refineries have different raw material preferences. The demand for refined oil products is polarized, with tight diesel supply and weak gasoline demand [9]. 3.5 Inventory - The US commercial inventory rebounds, and the inventory in the Cushing area stabilizes but is significantly lower than the historical average. The European crude oil inventory rebounds, while diesel and gasoline are destocking. The domestic refined oil profit is repaired [58][63][65]. 3.6 Price, Spread, and Position - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread declines, SC is stronger than the outer market and the monthly spread strengthens, and the net long position stabilizes [68][70][75].

Core Viewpoint - China's energy strategy is crucial for national security, especially in the context of ongoing global geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East, which impact energy supply and security [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Production and Consumption - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, accounting for nearly half of global coal production and consumption, approximately 4 billion tons, with coal making up about 54% of its primary energy consumption [3][4]. - As of April 2023, China is also the largest renewable energy country, with solar photovoltaic capacity of about 1 billion kilowatts, representing 40% of global capacity, and wind power capacity of 550 million kilowatts, accounting for 45% of the global total [4][6]. - China ranks as the seventh largest oil producer and the fourth largest natural gas producer globally, while being the largest importer of both oil and natural gas, with a projected oil import dependency of around 72% in 2024 [6][7]. Group 2: Energy Security Assessment - China's energy security can be described as sensitive but not fragile, with a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 85%, as coal does not require imports, and non-fossil energy sources are domestically produced [7][8]. - The implementation of the "Oil and Gas Increase Storage and Production Seven-Year Action Plan" has led to an increase in domestic oil production from 189 million tons in 2018 to 213 million tons in 2024, with a net increase of 4 million tons annually [8][9]. - Current global oil and gas markets are characterized by oversupply, benefiting China's import strategy, as major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia are increasing their output [9][10]. Group 3: Global Energy Market Integration - China has established a diversified energy import strategy, integrating into the global energy market through various oil and gas cooperation projects across 35 countries, including significant pipelines and strategic partnerships [10][11]. - The development of energy corridors, such as the China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline and the China-Central Asia gas pipeline, has become essential for ensuring energy security and is a hallmark of the Belt and Road Initiative [11][12]. Group 4: Future Energy Transition - The transition to renewable energy is critical, with a focus on key minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, which are essential for energy storage technologies, highlighting the need for domestic production capabilities to reduce import dependency [13][14]. - China's energy strategy emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between traditional fossil fuels and renewable energy, with coal's share expected to decrease while natural gas consumption is projected to rise until around 2040 [14][40].