国际金价横盘震荡之际，作为"黄金平替"的白银、铂金等贵金属热度正持续攀升，各类有色金属接力上涨。 Wind数据显示，截至7月19日，伦敦银现年内涨幅已高达32.06%，同期现货钯金、现货铂金分别涨超45%、60%，均已显著跑赢伦敦金现27.65%的年内涨 幅。值得关注的是，自6月以来，国际银价便出现一轮猛涨，现货价格一度超过39美元/盎司，创下14年以来的新高。 白银价格走高之际，白银投资也备受投资者关注。"去年6块左右屯了几千克实物银条，近段时间还在持续买，就当给自己存点养老金。白银是我的舒适区， 金额投入的比黄金少，但是二者取得了差不多的回报。"近日，来自四川的贵金属投资者王星（化名）向时代财经表示。 在销售端，多家银行、金店等也于近期发力白银销售，陆续上架银条、银元宝、银首饰等产品。对于投资者来说，现在是入手白银的好时机吗？ 图片来源：图虫创意 国内银价或挑战1万元/千克高位 从现货白银价格来看，截至7月19日，伦敦银现年内累计涨幅达32.06%，优于现货黄金同期27.65%的涨幅。 在业内人士看来，今年以来白银价格持续走高，主要受到黄金上涨及金银比修复两方面影响。 7月18日，国投期货高级分析师吴江在 ...

——株冶集团 2025 半年度业绩预告点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2025 年半年度业绩预告，我们上调了黄金、白银、硫酸产品的售价等，预 测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.02、1.15、1.32 元（2025-2027 年原预测值为 0.93、1.03、1.15 元）。根据可比公司 2025 年 16X 的 PE 估值，对应目标价 16.32 元，维持买入评级。 株冶集团 600961.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | 看好双轮驱动下冶炼龙头分红潜力 | | --- | 风险提示 宏观经济波动风险、原材料价格上涨风险、加工费下行风险、下游行业市场波动风险、 贵金属价格下行风险、后续矿产资源注入以及扩产不及预期的风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 19,406 | 19,759 | 22,583 | 23,814 | 25,281 | | 同比增长 (%) | -4.9% | 1.8% | 14.3 ...

出口方面，上半年，广西机电、劳密产品分别出口1391.3亿元、380.7亿元，分别增长29.4%、 4.5%，合计占同期广西出口总值的75.5%；其中，锂电池、服装及衣着附件、汽车、平板显示模组分别 增长184.9%、18.1%、30.4%、41.4%。进口方面，进口大宗商品902.3亿元，增长2.4%，占同期广西进 口总值的59.2%。其中，铜精矿进口量价齐升，带动金属矿砂进口605.7亿元，增长19.8%。 上半年，广西生产型企业进出口表现亮眼，进出口1299.4亿元，增长16.5%，高于整体外贸增速3.5 个百分点。其中有色金属、装备制造、造纸、农副食品加工、木材加工等行业进出口增速超过20%。生 产型企业出口、进口双增长，增速分别达到25.6%、11.7%，较今年一季度增速分别加快9.3个、6.6个百 分点，生产型企业应对风险挑战能力增强。（田希霞 程超颖） 从贸易伙伴看，上半年，广西对东盟进出口2060.8亿元，增长11.9%，占同期广西外贸总值的 53.2%。其中对越南进出口1498.8亿元，增长4.3%。同期，广西对拉美、非洲、中东、欧盟分别进出口 546.5亿元、241亿元、235.8亿元、1 ...

近期工业品期货市场呈现强劲反弹态势，多晶硅期货表现尤为突出。本月以来涨幅已超过30%，成为各品种中的领涨先锋。这一轮上涨行情背后，"反内 卷"政策预期成为重要推动力量，带动整个工业品期货板块连续走强。 政策驱动下的市场转向 7月1日中央财经委员会第六次会议的召开，为工业品市场注入了新的活力。会议明确提出要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动 落后产能有序退出。这一表态被市场广泛解读为"反内卷"政策的加速落地信号。 光伏行业作为政策关注的重点领域，反应最为迅速。7月3日工业和信息化部召开第十五次制造业企业座谈会，专门聚焦光伏产业高质量发展问题。会议强调 将进一步加大宏观引导和行业治理力度，为光伏行业高质量发展提供保障。这些政策信号的密集释放，直接推动了市场预期的快速转变。 文华工业品指数本月上涨4.18%，煤炭、建材、钢铁板块涨幅分别达到12.17%、9.99%和8.61%。多晶硅期货主力合约本月涨幅超过30%，焦煤期货、玻璃期 货、氧化铝期货、铁矿石期货的7月涨幅也都突破了10%的关口。 当前工业品价格的上涨，很大程度上源于市场对供给侧结构性改革的预期。参考2015-2016年供给侧改革的 ...

Group 1 - China's economy shows strong growth in high-tech manufacturing, with an increase of 9.5% in value added for large-scale high-tech manufacturing in the first half of the year [2] - Strategic emerging service industries also saw significant growth, with revenues increasing by nearly 10% from January to May [2] - The innovation-driven development strategy is gaining momentum, enhancing the vitality of innovation and driving economic growth [2] Group 2 - Traditional industries are undergoing upgrades, with companies like Xiangtan Steel focusing on high-end and specialty steel products to capture market demand [3][4] - The integration of advanced technologies such as AI and 5G in industries like coal mining is improving safety, efficiency, and environmental sustainability [5] - Companies are increasingly adopting innovative technologies to enhance productivity and reduce training times, as seen in Suzhou Huazhan Aerospace Electric Co. [5] Group 3 - The development of compound semiconductor industries is crucial, with companies like Huagong Technology achieving breakthroughs in laser wafer cutting equipment [6][7] - Innovation is essential for industries to withstand risks and enhance resilience, with a focus on addressing critical technological challenges [8] Group 4 - The transformation of scientific achievements into productive forces is accelerating, with companies like Xihai Biotechnology rapidly moving from research to industrial production [9] - Over 77% of R&D investment in China comes from enterprises, highlighting the importance of market-driven innovation [9] Group 5 - New industries are gradually emerging, with a focus on sectors such as marine technology and hydrogen energy, as demonstrated by the launch of China's first offshore CCUS project [12] - The development of new materials, such as high magnesium lightweight aluminum, is key to enhancing competitiveness in various fields [15] Group 6 - Private enterprises are becoming increasingly active in innovation, with sectors like integrated circuits and artificial intelligence seeing significant growth [16][17] - Foreign investment is shifting towards innovation-driven projects, as evidenced by new R&D facilities established by companies like Siemens in China [18] Group 7 - Continuous innovation efforts are supported by a robust talent pool, with China leading globally in the number of R&D personnel and STEM graduates [22] - The integration of education, technology, and talent development is crucial for fostering innovation and high-quality growth [21]

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 07 月 19 日 行业反内卷预期强化，关注底部金 属价格上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20250714-20250719 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.69%，深证成指上涨 2.04%，沪深 300 上 涨 1.09%，有色金属（申万）指数上 ...

为什么奥瑞金 2025 年上半年的业绩没有显著提升？ 奥瑞金在 2024 年底才确定了并购中粮包装的事项，并在 2025 年 4 月 22 日完 成中粮退市。因此，上半年主要处于并购事件收尾和整合阶段，未能立即带动 竞争格局优化、溢价能力提升和盈利能力改善。这些变化需要时间来实现，因 此短期内业绩提升不明显。 二季度奥瑞金三片罐和两片罐业务表现如何？ 三片罐业务表现稳健，红牛销量增长带动净利润稳中有升。两片罐业务虽然盈 利有所改善，但幅度较小。这主要由于 4 月份提价 1 分 5 以覆盖铝卷加工费上 涨，而非直接提高利润。此外，二季度原材料铝材均价环比一季度有所下降， 这对成本节约有一定贡献。 2025 年 4 月份提价对奥瑞金两片罐业务有什么影响？ 奥瑞金 20250718 摘要 奥瑞金二季度经营业绩环比改善，但幅度较小，主要受益于三片罐业务 稳健增长及两片罐业务盈利改善，但提价主要覆盖成本上涨，实际利润 提升有限。 2025 年上半年业绩未显著提升，主要因并购中粮包装事项处于收尾和 整合阶段，竞争格局优化、溢价能力提升和盈利能力改善需时间实现。 4 月份两片罐提价 1 分 5 主要用于覆盖铝卷加工费上涨， ...

从核心资产到老经济、从老赛道到新赛道 20250718 摘要 二季度北向资金大幅减持食品饮料行业，减持额达 138 亿元，其中与中 国经济关联密切的白马股如美的被显著减持，反映出对经济景气度的逆 向判断。 北向资金主动增持通信、有色金属以及部分地产和建材行业。通信和有 色金属的增持逻辑清晰，受益于行业趋势、降息逻辑和景气度，地产建 材则基于政策博弈和供给侧出清逻辑。 在市值超百亿的大型个股中，贵州茅台和美的是北向资金减仓最多的两 只股票，而宁德时代和恒瑞医药是加仓最多的两只股票，紫金矿业也获 得显著净加仓。 银行板块方面，北向资金操作分化，不同类型资金对银行股看法不一， 部分银行股被卖出，另一些则被加仓。二季度银行板块总体净流入 5 亿 元，相对于北向资金 2000 多亿的持仓规模，影响甚微。 北向资金在新赛道上的投资主要集中于创新药和通信领域，这两个领域 是二季度主动加仓的重要方向。与一季度相比，机器人等核心资产因涨 幅较大在二季度遭到较多减仓。 二季度北向资金呈现出从核心资产到老经济，从老赛道到新赛道的转变 趋势，例如卖出贵州茅台、买入紫金矿业等操作反映了这一趋势。 Q&A 北向资金在 2025 年第二季 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Macro Economy and Real Estate Market - **Company**: Goldman Sachs (GS) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Mixed Economic Data for May**: - Fixed asset investment growth was only 3.7%, below the expected 4.0% - Industrial value-added growth was 5.8%, slightly below the expected 6.0% - Retail sales of consumer goods grew strongly by 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9% [2][3] 2. **Decline in Urban Housing Demand**: - GS revised the forecast for urban housing demand, estimating it will remain below 5 million units annually, a 75% decrease from the peak of 20 million units in 2017 - Current housing prices are still declining, indicating the real estate market has not yet bottomed out [3][4] 3. **Limited Impact of Export Front-Loading**: - Anticipated "reciprocal" tariffs led to front-loading of exports, with an estimated 5% increase in overall exports in March - The impact on exports for the second half of the year is expected to be limited to 1 percentage point, suggesting that trade surpluses will remain strong [5][4] 4. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth**: - May saw a slowdown in fiscal operations, with budgetary income growth at only 0.1%, significantly lower than April's 1.9% - Fiscal expenditure growth decreased from 5.8% in April to 2.6%, indicating that fiscal stimulus has not significantly strengthened [11][12] 5. **Real Estate Revenue Weakness**: - Land transfer revenue fell by 14.2% year-on-year, a stark contrast to April's growth of 3.9% - Budgetary real estate-related tax revenue decreased by 8.6%, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate market [11][12] 6. **Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Prices**: - Brent crude oil prices rose to nearly $80 per barrel due to escalating tensions in Iran, with a geopolitical risk premium of about $12 - Two scenarios for oil price increases were outlined, with potential peaks of $90 and $110 per barrel under different supply disruption scenarios [26][28] 7. **Copper Demand Driven by AI**: - AI-driven data center expansion is expected to become a new growth driver for copper demand, particularly in power distribution and cooling systems - Strong capital expenditure expectations for AI-related investments are anticipated to sustain demand for copper-intensive components [32][34] 8. **Modern Dairy Industry Forecast**: - Modern Dairy, a joint venture of Mengniu, expects a net loss of RMB 800-1,000 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than last year's loss of RMB 207 million - The core operations remain resilient, with EBITDA expected to remain stable due to lower raw milk sales costs [38][39] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Fiscal Space for Expansion**: Despite current economic growth exceeding expectations, GS anticipates further fiscal expansion in the second half of the year to counter deflationary pressures and boost confidence [16][18] - **Market Sentiment and Currency Dynamics**: The report highlights a divergence in safe-haven currencies, with the dollar and Swiss franc performing strongly while Asian low-yield currencies face pressure [16][18] - **Potential for Future Trade Weakness**: High-frequency transport data indicates a potential weakening of Chinese exports to the U.S., particularly in container traffic, which may reflect the impact of new tariffs [35][37]

A股有色金属板块强势反攻：多空博弈下的财富密码 多空力量在5324点展开激烈角逐，这是7月14日近期高点，也是今日A股有色金属指数盘中触及的峰值。尽管最终收于5288点，上涨1.99%，一根强劲的中阳 线已成功突破连续两日的阴跌，吞噬了7月14日长上影线留下的抛压。 这波强势反攻并非偶然，而是多重利好因素共同作用的结果，其背后蕴藏着巨大的财 富机遇与风险挑战。 全球库存告急是此次反攻的"王炸"。LME铜库存仅剩9.1万吨，仅够全球工厂消耗3天；上海现货电解铜升水飙升至580元/吨。秘鲁矿工大罢工导致铜矿减产 30%，进一步加剧了市场供应紧张。 铝市场同样火热：云南水电铝成本优势显著，每吨比河南火电厂低2000元，导致82%的铝水被下游迅速抢购，社会库存 一周暴跌7万吨。三成中小铝厂因政策限制而被淘汰出局，低效产能加速清除。 8月1日废铜进口新规即将执行，小作坊的原料供应通道将被彻底封堵。 政策加持，助推行业洗牌： 中央财经委出手严打"价格内卷"，云南对电解铝厂实施拉闸限电，要求吨电耗必须低于1.3万度，三家小型铝厂被迫停产。稀土开采指标向头部企业倾斜， 北方稀土占据七成配额。这些政策措施有效地控制了供应，巩固 ...