Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic supply of bean meal is still relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals. Although the oil mill operating rate has increased, inventory consumption is slow, and the price is affected by the decline in CBOT soybean prices but supported by high import costs. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] - For corn, new grain is concentrated on the market, showing a slightly loose supply. However, farmers have a strong mentality of holding back sales, leading to strong port and production area prices. Attention should be paid to farmers' grain - selling and traders' shipping [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3013 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day. - Spot: Tianjin's bean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jiangsu's was 2980 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased by 2 compared to the previous day [1] - Market information: Brazil exported 336.6 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 24 million tons, a 79% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 81% of the expected area. As of November 20, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 79.9 million tons [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is loose, with slow inventory consumption. The decline in CBOT soybean prices drives the domestic bean meal price down, but high import costs provide support [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2242 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.99%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2556 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.83%) - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased compared to the previous day [4] - Market information: Brazil exported 393.9 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 28.1 million tons, a 13% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of November 20, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region was 93%. As of November 20, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 163.2 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is concentrated on the market, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to strong prices. The supply in North China is tight due to previous disasters. - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises purchase as needed, and feed enterprises start to increase inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年11月25日星期二 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 。 摘要 豆油：周二，豆油主力01合约下跌，午后收于8144（日变动-24或 -0.29%）。产地棕榈油超预期增产，棕榈油价格下挫带动豆油价格 走低。目前国内豆油库存较为充足，并且市场担忧美豆油生 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and oil market is in a state of consolidation, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic performance. The short - term market will continue to play around Sino - US trade progress and inventory changes, with soybean and oil futures prices showing a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "weak and volatile". The reference view is also "weak and volatile" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The soybean market is in a consolidation phase with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. US soybean futures prices are oscillating around 1100 cents, and the market is focusing on the details of a possible 12 million - ton soybean purchase agreement between China and the US. The domestic spot market has significant pressure, with soybean meal inventory rising to 1.145 million tons and contract volume dropping by 10.31%, indicating weak demand. Caught between high costs and weak reality, oil mills are accumulating inventory, and feed enterprises mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "strong and volatile". The reference view is also "strong and volatile" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is showing a significant differentiation pattern. The Malaysian palm oil market has declined for four consecutive days, mainly due to a 16.4% year - on - year decline in Malaysia's exports from November 1 - 25, which has intensified market concerns about the weakening supply - demand situation. Domestic palm oil inventory has increased by 35,100 tons to 591,600 tons, with continuous supply pressure. Recently, the trend of palm oil is closely linked to the international oil and fat sector. After a continuous decline, the palm oil market may fluctuate strongly due to the rebound of US soybean oil futures prices [7]. 3.3. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term and medium - term views are "volatile", and the intraday view is "strong and volatile". The reference view is "strong and volatile" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美种种进度低于去年同期，且本周及未来十五天降雨展望低于正常水平。利多盘 | | 豆粕 | | 面。但国内目前大豆及豆粕库存供应偏高，好在现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价 | | ★ | 短线偏多震荡 | 心理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴 | | | | 西种植升水，短线暂震荡偏多，关注南美大豆种植天气后续进展。 | | 菜粕 | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，现货降价去库。 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 基本面暂无大波动预期。菜粕昨日冲高回落，短线整理行情。关注豆粕端带动以及 | | | | 中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 棕榈油阶段性供需偏弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 20 日出口数据环比数据进一步走弱， | | | 偏弱整理 | 打压棕榈油价格昨日继续收跌。11 月马棕榈油累库预期依然存在，看多暂观望。 | | ★ | | | | | | 国内豆油库存环比下降，但仍高于五年同期。中美关税未能彻底解决美豆进口成本 | | 豆油 | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期周三 | | | 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 11 月 24 日，需求疲弱，垒库预期上升，马棕榈油走弱，连棕榈油领跌植物油板块。 豆油主力合约 Y2601 合约报收于 8090 元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌 0.66%，日减仓 1345 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7890 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.70%，日增 | | | | | 仓 1079 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2601 合约收盘价 8360 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.48%，日增 | | | | | 仓 1873 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2605 报收于 8442 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.52%，日增仓 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The market will maintain range - bound fluctuations in the short term, affected by soybean meal and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and closes higher, driven by soybean meal and technical shock consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term market is affected by soybean meal and maintains range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is gradually decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2530, and the basis is 99, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a negative factor [9]. - **Trading Data**: From November 17th to 25th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The trading volume of soybean meal varied, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 [13]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main force has decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary - From November 17th to 25th, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (both the main 2601 and the far - month 2605) and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated. The futures price generally showed a downward trend, and the spot price also fluctuated within a certain range [15]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics - From November 14th to 25th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased significantly. From November 19th, the warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0 [17]. 3.8 Other Information - Rapeseed meal futures have declined with fluctuations, and the spot price has followed the trend. The spot premium has fluctuated slightly. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has also fluctuated slightly. - There is no shipping schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remains low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is also at a low level. - The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remains at zero. - The price of aquatic fish has declined slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [18][20][23][25][27][35].

| 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，暂时偏弱对待 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | 2 | | 豆粕：移仓换月，震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：近月合约表现强于远期合约 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，存在预期支撑 | 10 | | 生猪：去库节点已至 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,360 | 涨跌幅 -1.48% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,336 | 涨跌幅 -0.29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,144 | -0.29% | 8,090 | -0.66% | | | 菜 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 昆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬粕 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ☆☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆波动反复，反弹之后再度回调。目前现货市场报价稳定，市场参与者挺价意愿偏强。政策端上周仍然在进行拍卖,不 过市场预计短期拍卖量尚未对供应端带来冲击。今年国产高蛋白太豆供应趋紧，因此市场对高蛋白大豆给予乐观的预期，给整 体大豆市场带来偏强的预期。美豆方面11月份显现出中国在采购美国大豆，预计中国 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean meal inventory still faces pressure, and the market is oscillating. The overall international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively loose, with the US market showing a relatively strong trend, while the Brazilian soybean prices are expected to face some pressure in the medium - term. The domestic market is also in a state of relatively loose supply - demand, and the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be affected by multiple factors such as international supply, domestic demand, and macro - economic conditions [3][4][5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - The US soybean market is oscillating. The Brazilian soybean prices have a slight rebound, and the domestic soybean meal market is rising slightly, while the rapeseed meal is continuing to rebound. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is slightly widening, and the inter - month spreads of both are falling [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report is generally bullish, but the US soybean market's upward space is limited. The Brazilian new - crop soybean planting progress is fast, and the old - crop has good export and crushing performance. The Argentine old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on export and crushing has improved [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the rapeseed meal demand is weakening, with a certain supply pressure [6] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - economic situation is generally stable. The end of the US government shutdown and Sino - US negotiations have brought positive signals. The restoration of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the US soybean export prospects, but the subsequent import volume still has great uncertainty [7] 3.4 Logical Analysis - The US soybean market is expected to oscillate at a high level. The Brazilian market has price support. The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure, and the rapeseed meal market may be affected by supply - side uncertainty. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have different trends [8] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Make a small - scale long - position layout - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Options**: Adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The supply pressure of domestic new crops has increased year-on-year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Sugar Spot Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the closing price on November 24, 2025, was 5615, with a decline of 60, a basis of 245 against SR01, and a decline of 77 in the basis [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the closing price was 5800, with no change, an ascension and discount of 100, a basis of 330 against SR01, and a decline of 17 in the basis [4] 3.2 Domestic Sugar Futures Market - The closing price of SR01 was 5370, with an increase of 17; the closing price of SR05 was 5319, with an increase of 17; the spread between SR01 - 05 was 51, with no change [4] 3.3 Exchange Rate and International Commodity Market - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1236, with a decline of 0.0081; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, with an increase of 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, with a decline of 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.77, with no change; the price of London white sugar main contract was 573, with an increase of 3; the price of Brent crude oil main contract was 62.51, with no change [4] 3.4 Other Data - The domestic white sugar industrial inventory was 2000 (no unit specified) [4] - The profit of Brazilian sugar imported without tariff quota was shown in the range of - 2500 to 1500 (no unit specified) [4]