农产品期货

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豆粕:美豆收涨,连粕或跟随偏强震荡,豆一:回调震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:33
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures closed higher, reaching a one - and - a - half - month high, and the upward trend is expected to drive the DCE soybean meal to follow a relatively strong oscillation. The DCE soybean is expected to have a corrective oscillation [1][3]. - The significant reduction in the USDA's soybean production forecast due to a large cut in planting area is the main reason for the increase in soybean prices [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 4107 yuan/ton during the day session, up 74 yuan (+1.83%), and 4080 yuan/ton at night, down 7 yuan (-0.17%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3163 yuan/ton during the day session, up 89 yuan (+2.90%), and 3166 yuan/ton at night, up 21 yuan (+0.67%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1042 cents/bushel, up 9.75 cents (+0.94%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 297.2 dollars/short ton, up 5.4 dollars (+1.85%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal (43%) price is 3080 - 3110 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China, it is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton; in South China, it is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 7.46 million tons per day, and the inventory was 96.09 million tons per week [1]. Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher for the third consecutive day, reaching a one - and - a - half - month high. The USDA significantly reduced the soybean production forecast due to a 2.5 million - acre cut in planting area, which was far lower than market expectations [3]. - Analysts expect the net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons for the week ending August 7 to be 200,000 - 700,000 tons and 400,000 - 900,000 tons respectively [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean is 0 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the day session on the reporting day) [3].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250814
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:25
Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2]. - Soybean oil: As US soybeans are strong, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - Soybean meal: Following the rise of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate stronger [2]. - Soybean: Expected to fluctuate in a corrective manner [2]. - Corn: Expected to move in a range [2]. - Sugar: Expected to rise in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Cotton: The expected bumper harvest of new crops restricts the upward potential of futures prices [2]. - Eggs: Expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Hogs: Spot prices are mainly weak [2]. - Peanuts: Near - term contracts are stronger than long - term contracts [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase, and the night - session was 9,486 yuan/ton with the same increase. For soybean oil, the daily - session was 8,592 yuan/ton (+1.23%), and the night - session was 8,554 yuan/ton (- 0.44%). Rapeseed oil's daily - session was 10,069 yuan/ton (+2.72%), and the night - session was 9,976 yuan/ton (- 0.92%). Trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia raised the reference price of crude palm oil for September, increasing the export tax to 10%. Indonesia saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. Argentina's soybean sales and Ukraine's rapeseed and sunflower seed production forecasts changed [5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,163 yuan/ton (+2.90%), and the night - session was 3,166 yuan/ton (+0.67%). DCE soybean 2511's daily - session was 4,107 yuan/ton (+1.83%), and the night - session was 4,080 yuan/ton (- 0.17%). Spot prices and industry data such as trading volume and inventory also had changes [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 13, CBOT soybean futures rose for the third consecutive day due to the USDA's lower - than - expected soybean production forecast [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1, and soybean is 0 [11]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and basis had corresponding changes. For example, C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,279 yuan/ton (+0.89%), and the night - session was 2,286 yuan/ton (+0.31%) [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Corn prices in different regions showed different trends, and the prices of imported sorghum and barley were also reported [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.85 cents/pound (- 0.09%), the mainstream spot price was 5,980 yuan/ton (+30), and the futures main - contract price was 5,657 yuan/ton (+49). Price spreads also had changes [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In Brazil, the sugar - cane crushing progress accelerated in the first half of July, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased. China's sugar imports in June were 420,000 tons. There are supply - demand forecasts for the domestic and international sugar markets [16][17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 14,130 yuan/ton (+1.07%), and the night - session was 14,120 yuan/ton (- 0.07%). ICE cotton futures fell slightly. Spot prices of cotton in different regions increased slightly [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading improved slightly, the cotton yarn market improved, and the US Department of Agriculture significantly lowered the production forecast of US cotton in the 2025/26 season [21][22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads had corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [26]. Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Hog spot and futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads had corresponding changes. For example, the Henan spot price was 13,930 yuan/ton (+50) [30]. - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and demand growth was limited. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the market is under pressure. There is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is - 1 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Peanut spot and futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads had corresponding changes. For example, the price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton with no change [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts in some regions are starting to be listed, and the prices of old peanuts are mostly stable. The growth of new peanuts is good [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [36].
格林期货早盘提示-20250814
格林大华期货· 2025-08-14 02:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to be bullish in the medium to long - term, and new long positions in the far - month contracts of oils can be entered [2]. - The double - meal market is likely to continue its strong upward trend, and a mid - term bullish view on double - meal should be maintained, with buying on dips as the main strategy [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On August 13, due to the unexpectedly bullish USDA August report and the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, the vegetable oil sector rose strongly. For example, the main contract of soybean oil Y2601 closed at 8,576 yuan/ton, up 1.18% day - on - day, with an increase of 26,820 lots in open interest [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On August 13, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a risk warning letter for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [1][3]. - The USDA August supply - demand report was overall bullish, with the U.S. soybean planting area unexpectedly reduced. For instance, the U.S. soybean planting area was 80.9 million acres, compared with 83.4 million acres in July's expectation [1][3]. - The U.S. will continue to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the 24% tariff for another 90 days from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff [1][3]. - On August 12, China's Ministry of Commerce preliminarily determined that imported rapeseed from Canada was dumped, and if an anti - dumping ruling is made later, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed will increase significantly [1][3]. - Malaysia's July supply - demand report for palm oil was bullish, with production and increase lower than Bloomberg and Reuters' forecasts, and export growth higher than their forecasts [1]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the USDA report and the China - Canada anti - dumping ruling led to a strong rebound in U.S. soybeans, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price remained strong. Domestically, policies supported commodities, and the suspension of the 24% tariff improved the macro - environment. The vegetable oil sector of the new main contract 2601 strengthened collectively [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - In the single - side trading, new long positions in the far - month contracts of oils can be entered. For example, the resistance level of Y2601 is 9,000 yuan/ton, and the support level is 7,800 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On August 13, due to the bullish USDA report and the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal's near - month contract hit the daily limit, and the far - month contract almost hit the limit, while soybean meal rose strongly. For example, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3,163 yuan/ton, up 2.33% day - on - day, with an increase of 1.79 million lots in open interest [3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - Similar to the vegetable oil market, it includes the risk warning letter from Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed, the bullish USDA August supply - demand report, etc. In addition, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume increased significantly, and the Brazilian soybean export volume in August 2025 is estimated to be 8.15 million tons [3][4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the USDA August supply - demand report significantly reduced the U.S. soybean planting area, and the ICE rapeseed price tumbled due to the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Domestically, the market expected the import cost of Canadian rapeseed to rise, and the double - meal is likely to continue its strong upward trend [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - In the single - side trading, a mid - term bullish view on double - meal should be maintained, with buying on dips as the main strategy. For example, the resistance level of M2601 is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the support level is 2,980 yuan/ton [4].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250814
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 01:28
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by multiple factors, with the US soybean market being undervalued and supply exceeding demand, while the domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation. The domestic soybean meal market is in a season of supply surplus, and the spot may start destocking in September [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has seen an increase in exports in Malaysia, and the market is supported by factors such as the potential of the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations [7][9]. - The sugar market is expected to see a decline in the price of Zhengzhou sugar in the future, considering factors such as increased import supply and expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season [11][12]. - The cotton market has seen a short - term rebound in prices due to the USDA report and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, but the downstream consumption is average, and the price may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14][15]. - The egg market has a large supply scale, and the egg price is weaker than expected in the peak season. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the medium - term focus is on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [16][17]. - The pig market has a situation where the spot price is weak while the futures price is strong. The medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the inter - monthly spread shorting opportunities for the far - month contracts [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 108,000 tons month - on - month. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and the downstream inventory days increased by 0.32 days to 8.37 days. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation [2][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the mixed long and short factors in the soybean meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, as well as the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month, and Indonesia distributed about 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel in the first half of 2025. Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.02% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the central price of oils, and the palm oil market may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 months and has an upward expectation in the fourth quarter. However, due to multiple restrictive factors, the market should be viewed as oscillatory [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to rebound on Wednesday, and the spot prices of various sugar - making groups increased. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of August had an average daily export volume 2% higher than that of the whole month of August last year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the continuous increase in import supply in the second half of the year, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is more likely to decline in the future, assuming no significant rebound in the outer - market price [12]. Cotton - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rebound on Wednesday. The USDA report showed a decrease in global cotton production and consumption estimates, and a decrease in the ending inventory [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Driven by the USDA report and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level, but the downstream consumption is average [15]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few areas making small adjustments. The supply remained stable, and the market digestion was average [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply scale is large, and the egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the medium - term focus is on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [17]. Pig - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price mainly increased slightly, and the downstream increment was not obvious, so the continuous price increase is difficult [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the inter - monthly spread shorting opportunities for the far - month contracts [20].
技术性卖盘压制,棉花短期震荡
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 01:04
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for both sugar and cotton [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugarcane and beet crops, and continuous monitoring of its impact on sugar production is needed. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Recently, sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding domestic - foreign price gap, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces the risk of heat damage. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, providing some support for cotton prices [1] Group 3: Data Summary 1. Price and Spread Data - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 12 to 13, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.71% from 16.95 to 16.83 dollars, and the price of US cotton decreased by 1.08% from 68.44 to 67.7 dollars [3] - **Spot Prices**: From August 12 to 13, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.17% from 5960.0 to 5970.0, and in Kunming it increased by 0.69% from 5815.0 to 5855.0. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly by 0.07% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15050.0 [3] - **Spreads**: There were significant changes in various sugar and cotton spreads from August 12 to 13, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 increased by 8.51%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 20.00%, and CF01 - 05 decreased by 42.86% [3] 2. Other Data - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.2 from August 12 to 13, 2025 [3] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1515.0 from August 12 to 13, 2025 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5700, SR601P5700, CF601C14200, and CF601P14200 are 0.0894, 0.0914, 0.1116, and 0.1113 respectively [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 12 to 13, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% from 17853.0 to 17529.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 1.00% from 8087.0 to 8006.0 [3] Group 4: Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has obtained the futures trading consulting business qualification and is a comprehensive settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, etc. [2][8]
CBOT农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨,大豆期货涨0.90%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-13 22:11
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on August 13, with all major contracts closing higher [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures increased by 0.90%, closing at 1042.00 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures rose by 0.57%, ending at 396.75 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures saw a gain of 0.40%, closing at 507.00 cents per bushel [1]
银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250813
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 14:44
Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Cotton, Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: August 13, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14130, up 150, with a trading volume of 359,282 hands (an increase of 175,100) and an open interest of 455,926 (an increase of 42,969) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 14090, up 180, with a trading volume of 19,441 hands (an increase of 10,428) and an open interest of 38,510 (an increase of 6,918) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13830, up 95, with a trading volume of 131,743 hands (an increase of 35,958) and an open interest of 179,148 (a decrease of 32,545) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20165, up 185, with a trading volume of 301 hands (an increase of 95) and an open interest of 385 (an increase of 57) [3] - CY05 contract closed at 20345, up 275, with a trading volume of 13 hands (an increase of 10) and an open interest of 6 (an increase of 1) [3] - CY09 contract closed at 20115, up 120, with a trading volume of 389 hands (a decrease of 117) and an open interest of 1112 (a decrease of 188) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15,188 yuan/ton, up 27 [3] - Cot A was priced at 78.20 cents/pound, up 0.20 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 76.05 cents/pound, up 0.10 [3] - Polyester staple fiber was priced at 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 [3] - Viscose staple fiber was priced at 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - CY IndexC32S was priced at 20,620 yuan/ton, down 20 [3] - FCY IndexC33S was priced at 22,149 yuan/ton, up 19 [3] - Indian S - 6 was priced at 54,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Pure polyester yarn T32S was priced at 11,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose yarn R30S was priced at 17,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 40, down 30; 5 - 9 spread was 260, up 85; 9 - 1 spread was - 300, down 55 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 180, down 90; 5 - 9 spread was 230, up 155; 9 - 1 spread was - 50, down 65 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 spread was 6035, up 35; CY05 - CF05 spread was 6255, up 95; CY09 - CF09 spread was 6285, up 25 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1413, down 23; sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 714, down 12; domestic - foreign cotton yarn spread was - 22149, down 20639 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - In the US cotton main production areas (accounting for 92.9% of the output), the average temperature was 82.14°F, 3.25°F lower than the same period last year, and the average rainfall was 0.72 inches, 0.11 inches higher than the same period last year. In Texas, the average temperature was 86.22°F, 1.17°F lower than the same period last year, and the average rainfall was 0.4 inches, 0.18 inches higher than the same period last year. The cotton growth rate was slightly behind, but the growth quality was good [6] - According to the latest USDA production and sales forecast, in August, the global cotton output was adjusted down by 390,000 tons to 25.39 million tons, the total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 740,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [6] - The estimated US cotton planting area in August was 9.28 million acres, a decrease of 840,000 acres from the previous month. The abandonment rate increased by 6.26%, and the yield per acre increased by 53 pounds to 862 pounds [6] Trading Logic - Macroeconomically, after the recent China - US talks, the current tariffs are expected to be extended by 90 days with a high probability, and the short - term impact of tariffs may be weakened. China's anti - involution policies have a certain positive impact on commodities. Fundamentally, the current cotton supply is still tight, and whether the market will issue additional sliding - scale tariff quotas in the future will be the main influencing factor on the supply side. In August, demand will gradually shift from the off - season to the peak season, and demand is expected to improve. If demand fails to meet expectations, it will have a certain negative impact on Zhengzhou cotton. Overall, short - term market bullish factors are relatively clear, and it is expected that the downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it will probably maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will probably be slightly stronger in oscillation, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term, but the upward space is relatively limited [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Sell put options [10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - This week, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. With the approaching peak season, the pure cotton yarn market has slightly improved, with fewer low - price resources and a slightly higher trading center. However, market operations are still cautious, and downstream fabric mills and traders have not made large - scale replenishment. It is expected that yarn prices will remain stable in the short term [10] - The overall demand for all - cotton grey fabrics has not been significantly released. Only some areas reported a slight improvement in demand compared with July. Fabric mills said they were actively clearing inventories, and the growth rate of grey fabric inventory has decreased. Fabric mills reported an increase in samples, but most real orders have not been placed. Prices are mainly stable, and real - order prices are still negotiated based on quantity. Continuously monitor market dynamics [10] Group 4: Options Option Contract Information - On August 13, 2025, the CF601C14000.CZC option contract had a closing price of 396.00, up 34.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.2% [14] - The CF601P13600.CZC option contract had a closing price of 131.00, down 24.3%, with an implied volatility of 10.3% [14] - The CF601P13400.CZC option contract had a closing price of 82.00, down 31.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.3% [14] Volatility and Strategy - Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.2534, and the volatility slightly increased compared with the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 14000 was 10.2%, that of CF601 - P - 13600 was 10.3%, and that of CF601 - P - 13400 was 10.3% [14] - Today, the position PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 0.7270, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.2862. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to sell put options [15][16]
银河期货花生日报-20250813
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 14:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of peanuts is still low, but the downstream demand remains weak, so the short - term peanut price is relatively weak. The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and the peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mills from peanut pressing is acceptable. Peanut 10 fluctuated narrowly today. It is expected that the planting area will increase, the planting cost will decrease, and some spring peanuts will start to be listed. Peanut 10 will still fluctuate narrowly [10]. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 8028, up 68 or 0.85%, with a trading volume of 72 (up 453.85%) and an open interest of 266 (up 3.50%); PK510 closed at 8116, up 36 or 0.44%, with a trading volume of 64,408 (up 124.98%) and an open interest of 89,499 (down 6.47%); PK601 closed at 8002, up 32 or 0.40%, with a trading volume of 13,847 (up 350.60%) and an open interest of 20,362 (up 16.05%) [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 9000, 8400, and 8400 respectively, with no change. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3300, with no change; the price of Rizhao soybean meal was 3030, up 100; the price of peanut oil was 15000, with no change; the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8660, up 170. The basis was 884, 284, and 284 respectively. The difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 2, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6340 [2]. - **Import Price**: The price of Sudanese peanuts was 8250, with no change [2]. - **Spread**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 26, down 36; the spread of PK04 - PK10 was - 88, up 32; the spread of PK10 - PK01 was 114, up 4 [2]. Second Part: Market Analysis - **Peanut Price**: The peanut price in Henan was stable, while that in Northeast China was weak. The price of 308 general peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.2 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.15 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha general peanuts in Henan was 4.25 - 4.35 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable. The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts was 8300 yuan/ton, stable. It is expected that the short - term peanut spot price will be relatively weak [4]. - **Peanut Oil and By - products**: Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today. The mainstream transaction price was maintained at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost - price of oil mills was 8110 yuan/ton. The price of soybean oil and peanut oil was stable. The domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was quoted at 14800 yuan/ton, stable; the market price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton, stable. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal rose to 3020 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price difference per unit protein between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and the short - term peanut meal was weak, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3250 yuan/ton [4][9]. Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Peanut 10 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see, and mainly short after a rebound [11]. - **Month - spread**: Wait and see [12]. - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [13]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [15][21][24].
粕类日报:供应利多增加,盘面大幅上涨-20250813
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 14:11
Report Title - "Supply Bullish Factors Increase, Futures Prices Rise Significantly" [2] Report Date - August 13, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal futures market is bullish due to cost - side increases, but the follow - up depends on domestic imports; the rapeseed meal market has significant fluctuations, and the far - month market is more favorable. The soybean meal inter - monthly spread may continue to decline, while the rapeseed meal inter - monthly spread may strengthen, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread may narrow in the short term [4][9] Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a significant upward trend today. The monthly supply - demand report was bullish, driving the futures up. The domestic soybean meal futures also rose, with limited market changes but obvious cost - side push. The rapeseed meal futures had larger fluctuations, and multiple contracts hit the daily limit. The main driver was the potential impact on the subsequent supply of Canadian rapeseed [4] Fundamental Analysis US Soybeans - The old - crop balance sheet is bullish, with exports almost completed and crush adjusted upward, leading to a decrease in ending stocks. For the new - crop, although the yield per acre increased, the significant reduction in planted area tightened the supply. The new - crop cumulative exports are slow. The new - crop stock - to - use ratio may not show significant bullishness at the current price level [5] South American Soybeans - The old - crop supply in South America is generally loose. The soybean production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crush volume by 8.21 million tons. The overall ending stocks or exports may increase. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but they are optimistic about future exports [5] International Soybean Meal - The international soybean meal supply pressure is obvious. The annual soybean crush volume in major producing areas is expected to increase by 21.536 million tons, while the imports of major importing countries only increase slightly [5] Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market is loose, with high oil - mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increased提货量. As of August 8, the actual soybean crush volume was 2.1775 million tons, the operating rate was 61.21%, the soybean inventory was 7.1056 million tons (up 8.38% week - on - week), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons (down 3.66% week - on - week). The domestic rapeseed meal demand is weakening, with a decline in the oil - mill operating rate, but the overall supply is still sufficient. As of August 8, the rapeseed crush volume in coastal areas was 63,200 tons, the operating rate was 16.84%, the rapeseed inventory was 138,800 tons (down 22,800 tons week - on - week), and the rapeseed meal inventory was 32,000 tons (up 5,000 tons week - on - week) [7] Macro - analysis - The Sino - US negotiations in London have ended, but there is no clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainty. Although the macro - disturbances are decreasing, China's high demand for US soybeans in the long - term means that prices are unlikely to fall sharply in the short term [8] Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures are bullish due to cost - side increases, but the follow - up depends on domestic imports. The rapeseed meal market has significant fluctuations. After the preliminary anti - dumping ruling, the final ruling is likely to impose tariffs, which is favorable for the rapeseed meal market. The soybean meal inter - monthly spread may continue to decline due to spot pressure, while the rapeseed meal inter - monthly spread may strengthen, especially for the far - month spread. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread may narrow in the short term [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Buy on dips - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM05 spread - Options: Wait and see [10]
菜系价格走强,豆粕宽幅震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 07:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - New - season US soybeans are growing well, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, but there are concerns about Sino - US policies. In China, the supply of soybeans is sufficient and the bean meal inventory is rising, but the increase in import costs provides some support to bean meal prices. For corn, the remaining grain in the market is less than last year, but market sentiment is weak and demand is still low [3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3091 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.62%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2653 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton (-2.61%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] 2. Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2260 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.09%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2645 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (+0.11%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] 3. Recent Market Information - US soybean: As of August 10, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71%. The growth is at a high level in the past five years [2] - Ukraine oilseeds: APK - Inform lowered Ukraine's 2025 oilseed production, including an 800,000 - ton reduction in sunflower seed production to 13.8 million tons, a 300,000 - ton reduction in sunflower oil production to 5.9 million tons, a 160,000 - ton reduction in rapeseed production to 3 million tons, and a 400,000 - ton reduction in soybean production to 5.8 million tons [2] - US corn exports: As of August 7, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.492 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16% and a year - on - year increase of 51%. From the 2024/25 season to date, the export inspection volume was 63.127 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%, reaching 90.4% of the USDA export target [4] 4. Market Analysis - Bean Meal: New - season US soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest, but Sino - US policies are uncertain. In China, the supply of soybeans is sufficient, the bean meal inventory is rising, but the increase in import costs supports prices [3] - Corn: In China, the remaining grain in the market is less than last year, but market sentiment is weak, and downstream demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The future focus is on the new - season corn yield [5] 5. Strategy - The strategy for both bean meal and corn is cautiously bearish [4][6]