固定收益 | 固定收益专题 固定收益 证券研究报告 地方政府如何应对关税冲击？ 各省对美贸易依存度如何？ 2024 年我国对美出口总额为 37343 亿元人民币，占出口总额比重为 14.7%。 分区域来看，我国对美出口区域集中度较高：2024 年广东、浙江、江苏分 别对美出口 9490 亿元、6316 亿元、5906 亿元，上海、山东、福建对美出 口均超 2000 亿元，四川、河南均超 1000 亿元。前 8 大对美出口省份占我 国对美出口总额的比重达 85%。 以对美出口总额/出口总额、对美出口总额/GDP 两大指标观察各省对美出 口的依存度：山西、河南、四川、福建区域 2024 年对美出口总额/出口总 额均大于 18%，对美出口的依存度较高；广东、浙江、江苏、上海等区域 2024 年对美出口总额/出口总额在 15-16%区间附近，在全国属于中游水平， 但其对美出口体量大，且对美出口总额占 GDP 的比重相对高。 对比 2018 年及 2024 年全国及各省对美出口总额/出口总额数据可见，在 2018 年以来中美贸易摩擦的背景下，我国通过系统性的战略调整，如新兴 市场开拓、扩大国内消费市场、产能转移等应对手 ...

在本次"世界认可日"宣传活动上，省市场监管局就出口转内销产品强制性标准符合性自我声明、强制性 产品认证绿色通道、工业产品生产许可证绿色通道等市场准入方面的便利化安排进行了现场政策解读， 并设置了内外贸检测认证服务对接区、出口产品转内销服务区等对接交流平台，为广大内外贸企业提供 面对面指导和答疑。 国际贸易形式复杂多变，标准认证千差万别，技术与产品迭代日新月异，信息差与生态链至关重要。如 何破除规则壁垒，实现"内销""外贸"两条腿走路，让贸易更加便捷？ 6月9日下午，广东省市场监督管理局在广州科学城会议中心举办广东省2025年"世界认可日"暨市场监管 部门支持外贸企业拓内销促进内外贸一体化发展宣传活动，推出17项支持外贸企业拓内销工作措施，现 场开展帮扶政策解读及服务资源对接。 具体来看，17项支持外贸企业拓内销的工作举措包括优化市场准入服务、支持拓展内销市场、加强企业 合规管理、支持企业品牌建设、推进内外贸一体化发展、提升监管执法效能等六个方面。 一是着力提升内外贸检测认证服务能力。支持、引导检测认证机构融入国际互认体系，拓展内外贸检测 认证资质能力和服务领域，为企业提供"本地化、一站式"检测认证服务。全省获 ...

Group 1 - The economic transformation has entered a "new stage" since 2022, characterized by a downward trend in the contribution of traditional sectors like real estate to the economy, leading to a divergence in economic indicators and a "two extremes" situation in industries [2][8][25] - The pressure in this new stage is increasingly focused on terminal demand, resulting in a weaker CPI while PPI remains under pressure, with overcapacity shifting towards downstream sectors [2][14] - The traditional policy framework's effectiveness is declining, necessitating a comprehensive "policy innovation" to adapt to the new economic landscape, which began in late September 2024 [2][36] Group 2 - The external shocks, particularly during the tariff phases, have accelerated domestic industrial upgrades, with significant shifts observed in industries like automotive and electronics [3][66] - During the Tariff 1.0 phase, industries transitioned from "import assembly" to self-sufficiency in core components, leading to a decrease in low-value-added exports and an increase in high-value-added exports [3][66][77] - Tariff 2.0 has primarily impacted low-value-added consumer goods, while high-value-added sectors have shown resilience, indicating that the tariff impacts align with the direction of industrial transformation [3][99][107] Group 3 - The new policy framework emphasizes high-quality development, focusing on high-level openness, "dual circulation," and sustainable growth, with a shift from investment-driven to people-centered approaches [4][122] - The "anti-involution" initiative is seen as a structural reform on the supply side, gaining increasing attention from both government and industry since late 2024 [4][36] - The service sector is identified as a critical area for absorbing structural employment pressures during the transformation process, with significant support needed to address supply shortages [5][54]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rapid growth and challenges faced by the card game company, 卡游, which is attempting a second listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with projected revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - 卡游's revenue structure is heavily reliant on licensed products, and the company has been experiencing continuous losses during the reporting period, raising concerns about its sustainability [1] - The company’s main products include collectible trading cards, figurines, and stationery, with collectible cards being the most recognized, particularly those featuring popular IPs like Ultraman [1] Group 2 - Reports indicate that students have spent exorbitant amounts on cards, with one student reportedly spending nearly 100,000 yuan in six months, and some parents spending up to 2 million yuan without completing their collections [2] - The trading card market has seen speculative behavior, with rare cards being sold on the black market for as much as 210,000 yuan, indicating a troubling trend of irrational consumption among minors [2] - The card drawing mechanism has been criticized for resembling gambling, potentially fostering a gambling mentality among minors [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rise of Wang Ning and his family, who have become the new richest in Henan, China, with a wealth of $20.8 billion, ranking 101st globally and 10th in China, surpassing the Qin Yinglin family of Muyuan Foods [2][3] Company Overview - Wang Ning's company, Pop Mart, specializes in selling blind boxes and has gained significant traction in the new consumption sector, primarily through its IP strategy [3][7] - The company's flagship IP, Labubu, has become a global sensation, contributing to a substantial increase in Wang Ning's wealth and Pop Mart's market valuation [4][6] Financial Performance - Pop Mart's stock price surged by 374% in 2024 and an additional 185% in 2025, leading to a market capitalization exceeding HKD 330 billion [6] - Labubu alone generated over 3 billion in sales within a year, showcasing its impact on the company's financial success [6] Market Dynamics - The blind box mechanism employed by Pop Mart has been effective in stimulating consumer demand, akin to gambling, which enhances user engagement [7] - The phenomenon has led to a secondary market where prices for ordinary items have increased by 2-3 times, and limited editions can see price hikes of 20-30 times, reminiscent of past trends in sneaker reselling [10][11] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the current success, reliance on a single IP like Labubu poses risks, as every IP has a lifecycle, necessitating the development of new IPs to maintain momentum [9] - The company faces challenges in addressing consumer fatigue and integrating its 90+ IPs into a cohesive ecosystem, which is crucial for sustaining consumer purchasing power [12]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.74%, marking a 21% increase from the low in April, officially entering a bull market [1] - New consumption concept stocks saw significant gains, with Mixue Group increasing by approximately 5% and Pop Mart rising by about 2% [1] - Technology stocks also experienced upward movement, with Kuaishou rising by around 6% [1] Group 2 - Semiconductor stocks mostly increased, with SMIC gaining approximately 5% [1] - Chinese rare earths surged by 60%, indicating strong demand and market performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - There are market rumors about Bubble Mart (09992.HK) entering the AI toy sector, but a representative from the company stated, "I haven't heard of it" [1] Group 1 - Market rumors suggest Bubble Mart is planning to venture into AI toys [1] - A representative from Bubble Mart denies knowledge of any such plans [1]

本文转载自每日经济新闻 值班编辑 | 江江 视觉 | 诺言 然而，近期Labubu火遍全球，泡泡玛特股价也持续上涨。 截至6月6日收盘，泡泡玛特股价报244.8港元/股，总市值3287.52亿港元。今年以来，泡泡玛特股价已上 涨174%。若将时间线拉长，从2024年初至今，泡泡玛特的股价涨幅超过了11倍。 6月8日，根据福布斯实时富豪榜，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）创始人王宁目前身家为203亿美元（约合人民 币1460亿元），牧原股份（002714.SZ）创始人秦英林身家为163亿美元。王宁已取代秦英林，成为河南 新首富。 | | Wang Ning & | $20.3 B | | --- | --- | --- | | 104 | family | ↑ $0M 0.00% | | | Toys | | | | Qin Yinglin | $16.3 B | | 147 | Pig breeding | + $0M 0.00% | 截图自福布斯实时富豪榜 近期，泡泡玛特旗下Labubu爆火，一娃难求，一些联名或限量款的Labubu更是卖出了几千上万元的天 价。 Labubu的爆火，直接带飞了泡泡玛特股价。截至 ...

每经记者｜曾子建 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 上周末，蜜雪集团被多家外资投行"下调评级"，引发市场高度关注。然而6月9日早盘，蜜雪集团大涨超 9%，带领其他新消费龙头集体大涨。除了蜜雪集团外，古茗一度涨超7%，布鲁可更是盘中大涨18%。 有分析人士指出，今日蜜雪集团、古茗和布鲁可三家公司正式纳入沪股通下的港股通标的名单，这意味 着南向资金今日起可以买入这些港股新消费股，短期利好因素比蜜雪集团被下调评级更加明显。但从中 期来看，过高的估值以及多家公司即将迎来限售股解禁，或将成为悬在股价上方的"利剑"。 蜜雪集团多空分歧已现 今年3月，蜜雪集团在港交所上市，立刻成为市场最牛新股之一。蜜雪集团招股价202.5港元/股，上周 三盘中触及618.5港元/股，较招股价涨幅高达205%。随着股价不断上涨，蜜雪集团估值也在飙升，最高 PE超过46倍，随之而来的是多空分歧。 就在上周，美林和瑞银相继发布报告，下调蜜雪集团投资评级。其中，美林将蜜雪集团评级下调至"跑 输大市"，瑞银则将其评级从"中性"下调至"卖出"。 下调评级的理由主要来自两方面。 真正的考验即将到来 实际上，不管是外资投行下调评级，还是纳入港股通标的证券名单，这些都是摆 ...

港交所披露，今年前5个月平均每日成交金额2,423亿港元，远高于2024年全年日均1,318亿和2023年日均1,049亿港元。A股公司排队赴港上市也很能代表趋 势，去年9月至今，已有8家A股公司赴港上市，IPO融资规模981亿港元，后续仍有近50家A股计划赴港上市，近期可期待的有三花智能，海天味业。吃肉行 情在前方招手，别被短期的热点蒙蔽双眼。比如，新消费。 最近的行情更像是中场休息时间。A股二季度业绩要等到7月末。贸易谈判估计要等到90天缓和期后，也就是8月份，再看对面有啥套路。可喜的是，恒生科 技并没有遭遇"五穷"，也没见"六绝"。就连上周一，没南下资金撑场的背景下，恒生指数都能从跌3%强势拉回，说明市场风险偏好并不差。笔者继续加仓 了阿里。 上周布鲁可，古茗等突然加速上冲。年轻人的"新茅台"：老铺黄金，蜜雪集团，泡泡玛特，毛戈平都在上周创了新高，年初至今的涨幅均超过100%。富时 中国50指数宣布将纳入泡泡玛特，老铺黄金上周股价突破1000港币，成为港股最贵股票，腾讯都被挤到第三去了。也是上周，一个急刹车，追尾无数。这些 股票都挺好，但要小心短期情绪透支的风险。 港股打新这里，上周打了点METALIG ...