智通财经7月8日电，上峰水泥在互动平台表示，公司出资2亿元通过上海君挚璞创业投资合伙企业（有 限合伙）投资长鑫科技，截至目前间接持有长鑫科技0.15%。 上峰水泥：间接持有长鑫科技0.15%股权 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on "supply-side optimization" and "anti-involution" competition, with potential policy implementations expected in the second half of the year [3][8]. - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" include those with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, and various manufacturing and consumer goods [3][11][13]. - The report outlines five perspectives for identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) share, industry concentration, tax revenue impact, labor intensity, and price elasticity post-capacity reduction [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Focus - The report highlights that the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 emphasized supply-side optimization and "anti-involution" competition, referencing past supply-side reforms from 2015-2016 as a model for future policy actions [3][8]. Key Industry Characteristics - Industries with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels are targeted for policy intervention. These include: - Cyclical industries: Chemicals (chemical products, rubber, non-metallic materials), non-ferrous metals (energy metals), coal, and steel (common steel, steel raw materials) [3][11]. - Manufacturing: Electric new (motors, grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaics), machinery (automation equipment), automotive (passenger vehicles), military electronics, and construction [3][11]. - Consumer goods: Home appliances (appliance components), food and beverage (food processing, liquor, snacks) [3][11]. Five Perspectives for Industry Selection - **State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Share**: Industries with higher SOE shares are expected to have stronger policy execution efficiency, including coal, common steel, cement, glass, and consumer sectors like liquor [3][5]. - **Industry Concentration**: Higher concentration industries are more likely to achieve supply clearing through stronger pricing power and quicker policy response, particularly in energy metals, non-metallic materials, and consumer goods like liquor [3][5]. - **Tax Revenue Impact**: Industries with lower tax revenue contributions will have a smaller impact on local finances during capacity reduction, focusing on sectors like glass, energy metals, and common steel [3][5]. - **Labor Intensity**: Industries with lower labor intensity will have a reduced impact on employment during capacity reduction, including non-metallic materials, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. - **Price Elasticity Post-Capacity Reduction**: Industries with a strong correlation between asset turnover and gross margin are expected to see greater price and margin expansion post-capacity reduction, including glass, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. Potential Beneficiary Industries - The report identifies several industries as potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies based on the five perspectives, including: - Coal mining, common steel, precious metals, glass fiber, coke, energy metals, steel raw materials, cement, chemical products, non-metallic materials, and various manufacturing sectors [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "anti-involution" policies in the cement and steel industries, highlighting the need for production cuts and capacity adjustments to stabilize prices and improve profitability amid declining demand and prices [1][4][14]. Cement Industry - The China Cement Association issued an opinion on July 1, emphasizing the importance of capacity replacement policies for optimizing the cement industry's structure and promoting high-quality development [3][4]. - Major cement-producing provinces like Shandong and Sichuan are implementing staggered production plans during the flood season, with kiln stoppages of 20 days and 15 days respectively in July [3]. - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with profits expected to decline from 680 billion yuan in 2022 to 320 billion yuan in 2023 and further to 120 billion yuan in 2024, potentially leading to losses in 2025 if competition remains intense [12][16]. Steel Industry - The steel market is also facing significant price declines, with the average price index for ordinary steel expected to drop to 3,506 yuan/ton in 2025, down 331.6 yuan/ton from the previous year [7]. - Steel prices have decreased by 6.51% since the beginning of the year and 16.25% compared to the same period last year, indicating a challenging market environment [8]. - Steel companies in Tangshan are set to implement hard production cuts from July 4 to 15, aiming to reduce iron production capacity by approximately 50,000 tons per day [9]. Market Dynamics - The overall demand for cement and steel is declining, with the construction sector showing insufficient project starts, leading to increased operational pressures on companies [4][12]. - The article notes that the "anti-involution" movement is a response to the oversupply and fierce competition in the market, aiming to prevent systemic collapse in the industry [16][18]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions necessitate a long-term mechanism to address overcapacity and promote high-end differentiation in production to enhance competitiveness and profitability [18].

福建水泥（600802）公告，预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为2067万元左右，与上 年同期相比，将实现扭亏为盈。预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净 利润为1286万元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the building materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for profitability recovery in the industry [2]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a "de-involution" campaign aimed at improving overall profitability, particularly in the cement sector, where demand is currently suppressed due to high temperatures and rainy weather [1][10]. - The report highlights a significant increase in land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies, with a year-on-year growth of 33.3%, reflecting a recovery in investment confidence among real estate enterprises [6][13]. - Price adjustments in the waterproofing materials sector are noted, with leading companies implementing price increases of 1% to 13% across various product categories, indicating a shift towards healthier competition in the consumer building materials market [6][13]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The national average cement price has continued to decline, with a drop of 10-15 CNY/ton in certain regions, while some areas like Jilin and Chongqing have seen price increases of 30-50 CNY/ton [10][22]. - The cement market is under pressure with a current inventory ratio of 76.00%, indicating a continued accumulation of stock [10][22]. - The China Cement Association has initiated measures to address supply-demand imbalances, which are expected to enhance overall industry profitability [10][11]. Float Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing weak price performance, with a national average price of 1174 CNY/ton, down 3.27 CNY/ton from the previous period [11]. - Inventory levels have decreased slightly, with a total of 6.9085 million heavy boxes reported, and production has increased to 110.34 million tons [11][12]. - Despite some replenishment activities in the downstream market, overall demand remains limited, leading to expectations of continued price weakness [11][12]. Fiberglass Industry - The market for non-alkali fiberglass remains stable, with prices around 3700 CNY/ton for high-end products, while electronic fiberglass prices are expected to rise due to tight supply [12]. - The main product G75 in the electronic fiberglass market is priced between 8800-9200 CNY/ton, showing stability compared to the previous week [12]. Consumer Building Materials - The report emphasizes the trend of price increases among leading companies in the waterproofing sector, which is seen as a positive sign for the industry's competitive landscape [6][13]. - Recommendations for investment include companies like Weixing New Materials, Keda Manufacturing, and Mona Lisa, which are positioned well for growth in the current market environment [14][15][16].

Group 1 - The construction materials ETF (159745) has increased by over 1.0% [1] - Hunan Yunfeng Cement completed the transfer of 2500t/d cement clinker capacity on July 4, 2025 [1] - Gezhouba Cement's Xili Company won an industry award in Kazakhstan's Kyzylorda region for 2025 [1] Group 2 - The cement industry is currently facing challenges such as weak demand, overcapacity, and inventory pressure [1] - The China Cement Association has issued opinions to promote "anti-involution" and "stable growth" for high-quality development in the cement industry [1] - It is expected that cement prices will receive support and recovery, leading to improved profitability for companies [1] Group 3 - Leading companies are expected to shift from price competition to value creation through technological innovation [1] - Mergers and acquisitions will be utilized to extend the industrial chain and increase overseas expansion for further growth [1] - Enhanced industry self-discipline measures are anticipated to optimize the supply-demand structure and promote high-quality development in the industry [1] Group 4 - The construction materials ETF tracks the construction materials index, which reflects the overall performance of representative listed companies in the cement, glass, and ceramics sub-industries [1] - The index has a high degree of industry concentration and cyclical characteristics, providing a comprehensive view of market trends in the construction materials sector [1]

国泰海通发布研报称，维持水泥行业"增持"评级：2021-24年国内水泥海外产能规模显著扩张，2023-24 年部分企业的海外水泥业务已经成为其盈利构成的重要部分。但在海外水泥规模"提速"的同时，该行观 察到市场对于高价海外水泥的"纸面黄金"能否真正兑现成盈利能力仍有分歧。该行认为，海外水泥扩产 时代的领先者依赖的是机制优势，而2025年之后或步入海外水泥盈利的分化期，由公司的经营内功决定 盈利兑现的质量，体现在海外选址能力和外币负债敞口的管理能力。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 全球视角 需求定增量，格局定价格。全球水泥发展历程来看，区域水泥的需求从长期看是由城镇化进程与人口增 速决定，但该行观察到90年代以来全球需求增长斜率最高区域(包括中国大陆、中亚、东南亚、北非 等)，往往对应的是分散化的产业格局和较为激烈的价格竞争。而欧洲作为全球老牌水泥巨头的发源地 在70年代率先完成了城镇化，实现了先竞争、先集中，高度集中的产业格局带动欧洲水泥价格在水泥需 求见顶后，反而迎来了价格的新高。 风险提示：海外汇率大幅波动，海外水泥供给超预期扩张。 机制定速度，内功定质量。2021-2024年间国内水泥企业出海进程加速。水泥企 ...

Core Viewpoint - A coalition of 33 construction companies has issued a "anti-involution" initiative to promote industry transformation and eliminate "involution-style" competition [1][3] Group 1: Industry Consensus and Goals - The initiative aims to build industry consensus, maintain fair competition, and foster a healthy industry ecosystem while firmly resisting "involution-style" competition [3] - It emphasizes accelerating transformation and upgrading through technological innovation, focusing on intrinsic and long-term value rather than blind expansion and excessive debt [3] Group 2: Current Industry Context - The construction industry is at a critical juncture, requiring companies to implement new development concepts, focus on core responsibilities, enhance product research and development, and improve cost control to strengthen core competitiveness [5] - The transformation and upgrading are seen as key measures to address "involution," promoting the conversion of technological achievements and empowering the industry towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [7] Group 3: Market Reactions and Industry Actions - Recent market trends show a surge in sectors like steel and photovoltaics, indicating a positive market sentiment in response to the "anti-involution" call [7] - Industries such as photovoltaics, cement, and steel have initiated production cuts, with leading photovoltaic glass companies collectively reducing output by 30% since July to alleviate "involution-style" competition [9] - The cement industry has also released guidelines to optimize structural adjustments, while some steel mills have received notifications for production limits [9] Group 4: Historical Context and Effectiveness - The current "anti-involution" measures in the steel and cement industries are not new, as previous initiatives have been taken to control production and reduce inventory [11] - The cement industry has shown signs of recovery, with improved prices and profitability, indicating that the "anti-involution" efforts are beginning to yield results [11][12] Group 5: Understanding "Involution" in Economics - "Involution" in the economic context refers to internal competition leading to resource wastage and thin profit margins, often resulting in a vicious cycle of increasing effort with diminishing returns [12] - "Anti-involution" strategies focus on industrial upgrading and innovation, shifting from price competition to competition based on technology, quality, and service [12]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of anti-"involution" competition has been initiated, affecting both traditional industries like steel and cement, as well as emerging sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries. The central government has signaled a commitment to address low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1][4][6]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Central Economic Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition legally and systematically, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity [1][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has held discussions with photovoltaic industry leaders to address the challenges posed by low-price competition and to promote high-quality development within the sector [11][12]. - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, effective from October 15, 2025, aims to provide legal tools to combat "involution" competition, particularly targeting platform operators who enforce below-cost pricing [9][10]. Group 2: Industry Responses - Various industry associations, including those in steel, cement, and battery sectors, have called for a collective response against "involution" competition, advocating for quality over price in market competition [3][16][19]. - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant pressure, with upstream silicon material prices plummeting, leading to a collective financial strain across the entire supply chain [12][14]. - Industry leaders have highlighted the necessity for consolidation and stricter control of production capacity to overcome the challenges posed by "involution" competition, suggesting that cooperation is essential for long-term sustainability [14][19]. Group 3: Economic Context - The current "involution" phenomenon is attributed to two main factors: a cyclical economic adjustment leading to heightened price sensitivity among consumers, and external pressures from a de-globalizing environment that compel companies to compete primarily on price [7][8]. - The imbalance between supply and demand in various sectors, particularly in the steel industry, has resulted in increased production despite declining consumption, exacerbating the "involution" issue [18][19].

Group 1 - The insurance capital is increasingly investing in high-dividend assets, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, with a significant focus on H-shares [1] - The insurance sector's investment in high-dividend assets is expected to strengthen, favoring low-valuation, low-volatility, and high ROE assets [1] - The A-share market is witnessing a surge in the electricity sector due to rising power demand amid high temperatures, with recommendations to focus on various electricity-related segments [2] Group 2 - The securities industry is undergoing a revision of its reputation management regulations, introducing a pre-compensation mechanism to encourage firms to compensate investors for losses [3] - The A-share market is entering a strong half-year reporting season, with expectations of structural opportunities in sectors like finance, gold, new consumption, and AI [4][5] - The first batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs has been launched, raising a total of 30 billion yuan, indicating a significant influx of funds into the tech innovation sector [6] Group 3 - The IPO process is tightening, with an increase in on-site inspections to ensure the quality of listed companies, reflecting a market-driven approach to filter out subpar applicants [7] - The cement and steel industries are facing profitability challenges, prompting calls for long-term mechanisms to stabilize growth and avoid systemic collapse [8] - The QDII funds are experiencing increased demand as new quotas are released, with a notable performance of Hong Kong funds compared to U.S. counterparts [9] Group 4 - The fifth set of listing standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has been reintroduced, allowing companies with significant market potential but currently unprofitable to apply for listing [10] - Insurance capital has made 20 equity stakes this year, matching the total for the previous year, driven by a low-interest environment and policy guidance [11] - The liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market has improved significantly, with around 200 companies applying for IPOs, reflecting a growing interest in the market [12]