Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The industry is significantly influenced by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices, suggesting a balanced allocation strategy. Focus is recommended on companies in electronic materials with increasing self-control and energy companies with stable dividend policies [2][11] - The report highlights the importance of demand as a key factor in determining market prices, particularly for products like MDI and butadiene [32][33] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of May 5 to May 11, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 22 saw price increases, 48 saw declines, and 30 remained stable. The average price of WTI crude oil rose by 2.78% to $59.91 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 2.53% to $62.84 per barrel [10][31] - The average price of polymer MDI increased by 5.02% to 15,700 CNY/ton, while butadiene saw a slight increase of 1.39% to 9,125 CNY/ton [32][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a mid to long-term investment focus on sectors such as oil and gas extraction, electronic materials, and new energy materials. Specific companies recommended include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and several technology firms [11][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for high growth in the semiconductor materials sector driven by advancements in AI and packaging technologies [11] Price Trends - The report notes that 22% of tracked products saw month-over-month price increases, while 48% experienced declines. Key products with significant price increases include NYMEX natural gas and urea, while products like aluminum fluoride and potassium chloride saw notable declines [10][30] - The report also indicates that the average price of lithium carbonate for battery-grade material decreased by 2.61% to 67,133.33 CNY/ton [10]

Group 1 - The market sentiment model indicates a recovery in market sentiment, with a positive bias as the sentiment score rose to 1.5 as of May 9, 2025, following a low point on April 18, 2025, marking 12 consecutive trading days of upward recovery [1] - The A-share market continues to show signs of sentiment recovery, with the main capital's sentiment remaining acceptable and the price-volume consistency score increasing compared to the previous week [4] - The total transaction volume of the A-share market saw a significant rebound, reaching a peak of 1.5 trillion RMB on Wednesday [6] Group 2 - The sentiment indicators suggest that the main capital has seen net outflows from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, but there has been a notable recovery in sentiment since mid-April, with net inflows of 1.54 million RMB on May 6 and 3.84 million RMB on May 9 [9] - The degree of price-volume consistency has increased, indicating a higher alignment between industry performance and transaction volume, although the long-term trend score for industry performance remains at zero, suggesting a lack of clear market leadership [12] - The market style is shifting towards growth, with several industries such as oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, light industry manufacturing, and power equipment showing short-term positive signals, while real estate and social services have seen significant declines [14][15] Group 3 - The market style has transitioned from large-cap value to small-cap growth, with the style RSI timing model signaling a clear shift from large-cap value to small-cap growth [21] - The performance of major indices from April to May shows a trend of switching from dividend value to small-cap growth, with the CSI 300 index showing a return of 2.00% from May 6 to May 9 [22] - The timing model indicates that the CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices have short-term positive signals, while the CSI 2000 shows a significant increase in short-term scores [25][26]

这个图做的比较清晰 | | | 主动权益基金持仓行业超配/低配情况 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | | | 基金持仓市值（亿元）板块持股占比（%）沪深300权重（%）低配超配比例 中证800权重(%) 低配超配比例 | | | | | 银行 | 971 | 3.35 | 13.04 | -9 69 | 10.22 | -6.87 | | 非银会融 | 506 | 1.74 | 11.25 | -9 51 | 10.41 | -8 67 | | 食品饮料 | 1.823 | 6.29 | 9.21 | -2.92 | 7.44 | -1.15 | | 公用事业 | 485 | 1.68 | 3.83 | -2.15 | 3.53 | -1.85 | | 建筑装饰 | 214 | 0.74 | 2.03 | -1.29 | 1.76 | -1.02 | | 交通运输 | 681 | 2.35 | 3.51 | -1.16 | 3.17 | -0.82 | | 煤炭 | 264 | 0.91 | 1.56 | -0.65 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is witnessing a significant increase in cash dividends, driven by new policies, with total dividends expected to reach nearly 2.4 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a historical high [2][4]. Summary by Category Dividend Trends - The total dividend amount for A-share listed companies has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, with an overall increase of over 108% in the past seven years [3][4]. - In 2024, 3,751 companies announced or implemented cash dividend plans, with an average payout ratio of 37.78%, and 1,277 companies having a payout ratio exceeding 50% [2][4]. Policy Impact - The policies characterized by "mandatory constraints + market incentives" have significantly enhanced the initiative and enthusiasm of A-share companies towards cash dividends [3][8]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes improving the investment value of listed companies, encouraging them to implement multiple dividends per year [8]. Industry Performance - Key industries such as banking, oil and petrochemicals, food and beverage, and telecommunications maintain high dividend payouts, with major companies like ICBC, CCB, and China Mobile each distributing over 100 billion yuan in dividends [6]. - Nearly 1,000 state-owned enterprises collectively distributed 1.5 trillion yuan in dividends in 2024, accounting for 62.5% of the total market dividends [6]. Changes in Dividend Distribution - The shift from passive to active dividend distribution is evident, with 966 companies announcing mid-year dividends totaling 689.58 billion yuan, representing significant growth compared to the previous year [8]. - Companies are increasingly integrating dividend policies into their strategic planning, which is expected to enhance corporate governance [8].

1.中信证券：聚焦三大不变趋势 中信证券裘翔称，配置上，除短期热点主题轮动，建议聚焦三个大趋势：一是中国自主科技能力的提升 趋势；二是欧洲重建自主防务，提升能源、基建和资源储备的趋势；三是中国势必要走通"双循环"，加 速完善社会保障并激发内需潜力是政策的必选项。 【 机构观点综评 】中信证券称，配置上，除短期热点主题轮动，建议聚焦三个大趋势。中金固收团队 称，建议把握二三季度配置窗口，布局债市牛市行情。 一、焦点锐评 1. 降准、降息加增量政策，三部门发力稳预期！ 5月7日，三部门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期。央行宣布推出十项政策措施，其中包括全面降准 0.5个百分点，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，降低结构性货币政策工具利率和公积金贷款利率0.25个百分 点，设立5000亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"等。金融监管总局将推出八项增量政策，包括加快出台适配 房地产发展新模式的融资制度、再批复600亿元保险资金长期投资试点等。证监会将全力支持中央汇金 发挥好类"平准基金"作用，出台深化科创板、创业板改革政策措施等。 【点评】当前宏观经济面临国内政策变动和经济波动超预期的风险，尤其在中美经贸关系尚未明朗、关 税影响逐步 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 量化周报 市场可逢低布局 市场可逢低布局。本周（5.6-5.9），大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周收涨 1.92%。在此背景下，大部分指数迎来了一波 30 分钟级别回调。当下我 们认为，经历了贸易战的冲击后，市场的底部区间已然探明。短期市场到 了选择方向的时候：1、一方面大部分规模指数和行业的的日线级别下跌 只走了 1 浪结构，日线下跌结构不够充分；2、另一方面经历了近期的震 荡上行后，很多指数和板块马上要形成新的日线级别上涨，比如上证 50、 纺服、轻工、汽车等板块。未来，不论哪种情况出现，投资者都可逢低布 局，因为即便是继续日线级别下跌，空间和时间都有限。中期来看，上证 指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷 纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚开 始；此外，已有 21 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 8 个行业周线上涨只 走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开始，而且还是个普涨格局。 中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 2.1 什么是红利低波100指数 ？ 红利低波100指数 （ 代码 ： 930955 ） 是中证红利低波动100指数的简称 ， 由中证指数有限公司于 2017年5月26日发布 ， 是一只以 " 高股息和低波动 " 为核心逻辑的指数 。 作者： 王博雅投资 来源：雪球 1 引言 红利低波100指数是仅有的2个五星级红利指数之一 。 它可以看做中证红利的升级版 ， 在保持优秀分散性 的情况下实现了更高的收益和更低的波动 ， 因此在市场上备受关注 。 图1 沪深300 、 中证红利与红利低波指数全收益对比 在之前 ， 我已经对追踪中证红利的基金进行了分析。 今天我将对红利低波100指数进行简介 ， 然后从 费用 、 规模 、 流动性 、 收益与分红频率 等几个关键角 度 ， 对红利低波100ETF进行横评 ， 看看谁最好 ！ 2 红利低波100指数简介 红利低波100指数构成逻辑如下 ： 1 中证全指中过去一年日均成交金额前 80%的公司 。 这是为了避免流动性过差 。 2 过去三年连续现金分红 。 这是为了确保公司具有良好的分红 ...

2025 年 5 月 9 日 行业研究 MXD6：国产替代叠加轻量化需求高增，市场空间广阔 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 60 期（20250508） 要点 凭借优异性能，MXD6 主要应用于汽车和无人机轻量化以及阻隔包装材料。 MXD6 作为高性能工程塑料，其产品具有高强度、高刚性、耐高温、耐磨损 和耐老化、耐化学性、阻燃性、高阻隔性能等特点，主要应用于汽车和无人 机轻量化以及阻隔包装材料。在包装应用中，MXD6 可有效防止氧气渗透和 二氧化碳逸散，适用于对气体阻隔性要求较高的产品。其可与 PET、PE、 PP 等材料共挤或共注，制成多层薄膜、片材和瓶体。在工程塑料改性方面， MXD6 可与玻璃纤维、碳纤维及矿物填料复合制成增强材料，具有优异的强 度、刚性及表面光泽性。即使在高填充率下，其表面仍保持光滑、适合喷涂 或金属镀膜，可应用于汽车、电子电器等对结构强度和外观要求较高的金属 替代件。 2024 年 MXD6 市场规模约 4.1 亿美元，在低空经济、机器人等新兴产业高 速扩张背景下市场空间广阔。根据 Business Research Insights 统计及预 测，2024 年至 2033 年期间，全球 ...

行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 2025 年 05 月 09 日 24Q4 及 25Q1 油价同比回落，上 游板块继续维持高景气，下游炼化 和聚酯板块盈利有所修复 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 看好 ——石油化工 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报业绩总结 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 - ⚫ 2024Q4、2025Q1 原油价格先跌后涨，成品油价格先升后降：2024Q4 方面，2024 年 10、11、12 月 Brent 原油均价分别为 75.4、73.4、73.1 美元/桶，波动区间为 71—81 美元；2024Q4 均价为 7 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, the proportion of public fund holdings in the basic chemical sector slightly increased quarter-on-quarter but decreased year-on-year, with a market value proportion of 3.32% [2][13] - The basic chemical stocks accounted for 3.53% of the A-share market, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2][13] - The number of stocks held by public funds in the basic chemical sector reached 146, an increase of 4 stocks year-on-year and 21 stocks quarter-on-quarter [3][20] Summary by Sections 1. Event - Public funds are required to disclose their top ten heavy stocks within 15 days after the end of each quarter, and the report analyzes the top heavy stocks in the basic chemical industry for Q1 2025 [1][12] 2. Holdings Change - The heavy stock holding ratio in the basic chemical sector increased slightly by 0.05 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but decreased by 0.49 percentage points year-on-year [2][13] - The basic chemical industry is underweighted by 0.2%, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.04 percentage points [2][13] - The oil and chemical sector saw a significant increase in public fund holdings since Q3 2020, but the proportion dropped to 0.4% in Q1 2025, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [2][18] 3. Individual Stock Analysis - The top five heavy stocks in Q1 2025 are Wanhua Chemical, Juhua Co., Sailun Tire, Hualu Hengsheng, and Satellite Chemical, with Satellite Chemical replacing China National Petroleum in the top five [4][29] - The number of companies in the agricultural chemical sector remains the highest among the top 50 heavy stocks, with 9 companies, accounting for 18% [4][29] 4. Market Preference Analysis - The proportion of holdings in industry leaders has decreased, with a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks [5] - Stocks with a market capitalization of over 500 billion accounted for 33.7% of the total market value of the top 50 chemical stocks, a decrease of 7.49 percentage points [5]