Core Insights - The ferroalloy industry is facing significant challenges such as profit margin compression, traditional business models failing, and cyclical demand weakness, prompting companies to innovate with risk management tools like futures and options to achieve counter-cyclical growth [1][2][5] Industry Challenges - The silicon manganese sector has long been plagued by oversupply, making it a focal point for supply-side structural reforms [1] - Profit margins in the silicon iron and silicon manganese industries have been persistently low, except for 2021, with weak long-term demand growth [2] - The first quarter of 2024 saw a downward trend in spot market prices due to excess capacity and declining demand, leading to a downward spiral in silicon manganese prices [1][2] Risk Management Innovations - Companies are exploring new risk management models through the combination of futures and options, which allows for more robust business operations amid market fluctuations [2][3] - The use of options provides significant advantages, such as protecting futures positions and alleviating financial pressure while retaining the potential for profit from price increases [2][3] Operational Strategies - The integration of futures and options not only helps companies manage price risks but also fosters collaboration across the supply chain, enhancing overall industry resilience [3][4] - Companies have shifted their sales strategies from a reliance on long-term contracts with steel mills to a more balanced approach that includes a significant portion of spot trading [3][4] Performance Improvement - The application of a futures-based strategy has allowed companies to stabilize production and improve competitiveness, leading to better cost management [3][4] - The average profit margins of companies utilizing these risk management tools have shown significant improvement compared to previous periods [4] Future Outlook - The trend of adopting financial tools for proactive risk management is transforming ferroalloy companies from traditional manufacturers into risk management experts, enhancing the resilience and collaboration of the entire supply chain [5] - This shift is seen as a crucial pathway for the industry to break the downward spiral of cost and demand, moving towards a greener, more efficient, and sustainable future [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, the latest prices of natural lumps in different regions are as follows: Ningxia 72 is 5150, Inner Mongolia 72 is 5200, Qinghai 72 is 5200, and Shaanxi 72 is 5130. The latest price of Shaanxi 75 is 5700. The prices of qualified lumps in Jiangsu 72 and Tianjin 72 are 5550 and 5500 respectively. The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 are 1030 and 1080 (in US dollars) [2]. - For silicon - manganese ferroalloy, the factory - ex prices in different regions are: Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600, Ningxia 6517 is 5480, Guangxi 6517 is 5570, Guizhou 6517 is 5550, and Yunnan 6517 is 5550. The price of Guangxi 6014 is 5000. The trader prices of Ningxia 6517 and Jiangsu 6517 are 5480 and 5670 respectively [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China shows monthly and weekly production trends from 2021 - 2025. The monthly production of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China ranges from 350,000 to 550,000 tons, and the weekly production of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises (with a capacity share of 95%) shows fluctuations [4]. - The production of silicon - manganese ferroalloy in China shows weekly production trends from 2021 - 2025, with the weekly production ranging from 5500 to 9000 [6]. Demand - The demand data of silicon - manganese ferroalloy in China (according to Steelhome's statistics) shows trends from 2021 - 2025, with the demand ranging from 120,000 to 280,000 tons [7]. - The demand - related data such as the purchase volume and price of silicon ferroalloy by HBIS Group from 2021 - 2025 are also presented, with the purchase volume of FeSi75 - B by HBIS Group ranging from 5000 to 12000 tons per month [4]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi shows weekly trends from 2021 - 2025. The total inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China ranges from 30,000 to 110,000 tons [5]. - For silicon - manganese ferroalloy, the inventory data such as the total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory on CZCE show daily trends from 2021 - 2025. The total number of warehouse receipts on CZCE ranges from 0 to 140,000 [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the cost and profit data such as the production cost in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the profit converted to the main contract in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon ferroalloy show trends from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - For silicon - manganese ferroalloy, the profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (according to Steelhome's statistics) show trends from 2021 - 2025 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 19th, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5642, down 1.16%. The inventory has rebounded rapidly, production at a high level continues to decline slightly, and inventory has risen for 7 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end decreased by 13.4 tons, and the overall demand for hot metal has a seasonal decline. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 19th, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5504, down 1.01%. Coal weakening led to an adjustment in alloys. Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, and inventory has risen for two consecutive weeks. The daily K - line is above the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,642 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5,462 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest: 715,001 lots, up 48,355 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 423,558 lots, up 25,031 lots [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net open interest: - 12,370 lots, up 9,528 lots; Ferrosilicon top 20 net open interest: - 16,726 lots, up 1,826 lots [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 58 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: - 2 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 19,744 sheets, down 119 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 8,396 sheets, down 47 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5,579 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 242 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SM main contract basis: - 142 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port: 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu): 880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 426.3 tons, down 13.4 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 39.59%, down 0.65%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 34.84%, down 1.42% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 199,570 tons, down 2,310 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 109,100 tons, down 5,000 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 349,500 tons, up 30,000 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory: 81,360 tons, up 2,670 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory: 15.7 days, down 0.23 days; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory: 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand: 118,589 tons, down 2,524 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand: 19,073.8 tons, down 739.9 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 82.79%, down 0.36%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization: 88.82%, up 1.03% [2]. - October national crude steel production: 7,199.7 tons, down 149.31 tons; January - October cumulative crude steel production: 81,787.4 tons, down 3.9% year - on - year [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The EU announced import quotas for steel alloys containing manganese or silicon for three years, setting quotas by ferro - alloy category and exporting country to limit duty - free imports in the EU [2]. - Local "state - owned" platforms in Beijing, Guangzhou, Fuzhou, etc. have publicly sold real estate this year, which should not be interpreted as a sell - off [2]. 3.7 Profit and Market Pricing - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 180 yuan/ton; Ningxia spot profit is - 380 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's November silicon - manganese final price is 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. - Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 250 yuan/ton; Ningxia spot profit is - 480 yuan/ton. HeSteel's November 75B ferrosilicon tender price is 5,680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous round [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On November 19, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon ferro - alloy (SF) and manganese silicon (SM) markets both face a situation of weak supply and demand, but the cost side provides some support, leading to an expected bottom - range oscillation [5]. - The trading strategies include: expecting a bottom - range oscillation for single - sided trading; waiting and seeing for arbitrage; and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures - SF main contract: closed at 5504, down 18 for the day and 48 for the week, with a trading volume of 232,237 (down 101,565 from the previous day) and an open interest of 148,169 (up 17,457 from the previous day) [2]. - SM main contract: closed at 5642, down 38 for the day and 120 for the week, with a trading volume of 212,250 (down 183,485 from the previous day) and an open interest of 436,259 (up 31,861 from the previous day) [2]. 3.1.2 Spot - Silicon ferro - alloy: 72%FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin remained stable or had slight weekly declines, with no daily change in most regions [2]. - Manganese silicon: The prices of 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia remained stable, while those in Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton for the day and 30 - 80 yuan/ton for the week [2]. 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - Silicon ferro - alloy: The basis of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai relative to the main contract increased by 18 for the day and 48 for the week; the spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia was 270, with no daily change but a weekly decline of 80; the SF - SM spread was - 138, up 20 for the day and 72 for the week [2]. - Manganese silicon: The basis of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi relative to the main contract increased; the spread between Guangxi and Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 for the day and 30 for the week [2]. 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): The prices of Australian lumps, South African semi - carbonates, and Gabonese lumps were stable for the day, with slight weekly increases in some cases; the prices of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Silicon Ferro - alloy - On November 19, spot prices were generally stable. Supply: More manufacturers in Qinghai are under maintenance, and the weekly start - up rate and production are expected to decline slightly. Demand: After a short - term rebound, future hot metal production will continue to decline. Cost: The electricity prices of ferroalloys in various regions are generally stable with a slight upward trend. Overall, the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with cost support. Affected by the decline of the overall black metal market such as coking coal, it has adjusted accordingly, but its valuation is not high, so short - selling is not advisable [5]. 3.2.2 Manganese Silicon - On November 19, manganese ore spot prices were generally stable, and manganese silicon spot prices were stable with a slight downward trend, with some regional prices decreasing by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. Supply: As prices decline, manganese silicon production has also decreased slightly. Demand: Future hot metal production will decline overall. Cost: Manganese ore port inventories are at a low level for the same period, spot prices are firm, and overseas mine quotes are also rising steadily, leading to an increase in the cost side. Against the background of weak supply and demand and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. 3.3 Important Information - On November 19, the price of semi - carbonate Mn36.7% at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, the price of Gabonese lumps Mn48% was 41 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of Australian lumps Mn42%Fe 3.6% was 40 yuan/ton - degree [7]. - On November 18, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October 2025, China's excavator production was 30,880 units, a year - on - year increase of 13%; from January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 308,062 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% [7]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [8][9][11][13][15][16][18][19][21] - The data sources for these charts are Galaxy Futures and Mysteel [12][14][17][22][24][26]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: November 19, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center of coking coal may decline due to supply guarantee, the downside space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5,300 - 6,000, with a current volatility of 13.22% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.9% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long positions can short - sell SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 15% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 25% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 5,200 - 5,300 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. Market Review - Recently, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising on reduced positions. However, the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. Today, ferroalloys followed coking coal and weakened in a fluctuating manner. The view of a weakly - fluctuating market for ferroalloys persists [4]. Core Logic - The steel mill profitability rate has fallen below 40%, leading to a slight decline in hot metal production, which is expected to continue. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased seasonally, and ferroalloys also have high inventory. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually decreasing, and there is little expectation for continued production increases. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month. This week, ferrosilicon production started to decrease, and silicomanganese production has been decreasing for multiple weeks. Reducing inventory may rely on production cuts [5]. Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.38% week - on - week this week, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 21.96% month - on - month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel market failed to meet expectations during the peak season, and the steel mill profitability rate fell below 40%, increasing the negative feedback pressure. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the past 5 years. Consumption has no driving force, and inventory has increased seasonally. Recently, Thailand launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month, indicating high inventory pressure [9][11]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 38, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was 2. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 47 compared to the previous day [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 308, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was - 58. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 119 compared to the previous day [10][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overall, finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the lower end, but their upward drive is suppressed by inventory and demand. They are expected to trade in a range, with rebar likely between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in steel enterprise profitability [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with total inventory continuously increasing, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. The port inventory is accumulating above the seasonal level, but the inventory of deliverable brand coarse powder is decreasing, supporting the basis to strengthen. The coking coal price decline provides a seesaw support for the ore price, but the subsequent recovery of coking coal valuation may squeeze the iron ore [21]. - In the short term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as the high spot price increase, weak downstream acceptance, and seasonal weakening of demand. In the long - term, the supply elasticity of coking coal will be restricted by policies, and the winter storage demand is expected to limit the downward space of coking coal prices [31]. - Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the downward space is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [44]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, its valuation has limited upward elasticity. The medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - and middle - stream inventory is high, restricting the price, but there is cost support at the lower end [53]. - The glass market has weak production and sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream brings significant spot pressure. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [77]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3070, 3116, and 3162 respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3277, 3281, and 3298 respectively. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices and basis also had corresponding values [4][8][10]. - **Ratio Data**: The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore were all 4, and those to coke were all 2 on November 19, 2025 [18]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 791.5, 755, and 730 respectively. The basis of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 3, 31.5, and 55 respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao also had corresponding values [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 236.88, the 45 - port desulfurization volume was 326.95, and the global shipping volume was 3516.4. The 45 - port inventory was 15129.71 [25]. Coal - Coke - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the coking coal and coke warehouse - receipt costs and basis had corresponding values. The coking profit on the disk was - 72 [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the prices of different types of coking coal and coke in different regions had corresponding values, and the import and export profits also had corresponding values [35][36]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron Data**: On November 19, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron in different regions had corresponding values, and the number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 8396 [45]. - **Silicon Manganese Data**: On November 19, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions had corresponding values, and the number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts was 19744 [46]. Soda Ash - **Price/Month - Spread Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts of soda ash were 1182, 1257, and 1325 respectively. The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding values [53]. - **Spot Price/Spread Data**: On November 19, 2025, the heavy - alkali and light - alkali market prices in different regions had corresponding values, and the heavy - alkali minus light - alkali spreads also had corresponding values [56]. Glass - **Price/Month - Spread Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts of glass were 1009, 1139, and 1225 respectively. The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding values [78]. - **Production and Sales Data**: From November 11 - 17, 2025, the production and sales of glass in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China had corresponding values [78].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has announced final safeguard measures on certain imported ferroalloys to protect its domestic ferroalloy industry, effective until November 17, 2028 [1] Group 1: Safeguard Measures - The safeguard measures will include tariff quotas and minimum import prices for designated imported ferroalloys. If imports exceed the quotas and prices fall below the minimum, additional safeguard duties will be imposed [1] - The measures are a response to a significant increase in ferroalloy imports, which have risen by 17% from 2019 to 2024, leading to a decline in the market share of EU producers from 38% to 24% [1] Group 2: Impact on Industry - Ferroalloys are critical materials used to enhance the hardness, tensile strength, wear resistance, and corrosion resistance of steel, with applications in steelmaking, construction, automotive, aerospace, and military industries [1] - The EU primarily imports ferroalloys from Norway, Iceland, Kazakhstan, and Brazil. To mitigate the impact of the safeguard measures on European supply chains, the EU Commission will hold consultations with Norway and Iceland every three months to assess the effects [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state where price suppression lacks safety - margins, but there is no clear upward driving force. Steel production is expected to gradually decline in the future, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production - cut logic [3]. - The supply - demand situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is poor, and prices are under pressure. Despite stronger cost support, the oversupply pattern persists [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the coking coal auction prices mostly declined. The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and demand is marginally weakening. Coal and coke prices are expected to be weak in November, with limited decline, and may rise again around mid - December [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and although there is strong macro - sentiment, the inventory pressure is high, and the price is difficult to break through the range. It is advisable to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Tuesday, the spot and futures prices remained stable, but the spot trading volume declined, and the market's initiative to chase up prices was weak. The next macro - observation period is after early December [2]. - There are contradictions in the industry: low static valuation of steel futures prices, lack of upward driving force, and unresolved concerns about long - term production cuts in steel mills. Steel production is expected to gradually decline, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production - cut logic [3]. - Investment strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading; consider participating in cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [3]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the pressure on steel prices, steel mill profits have shrunk, iron - water production has decreased, and the direct demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has weakened significantly. The weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. - Although alloy factory profits are poor, production remains high, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure persists. The inventory of alloy factories and the number of warehouse receipts are accumulating. - Despite the strengthening of cost support due to the rise in coking coal and coke prices, the oversupply pattern continues, and prices will be under pressure. - Investment strategy: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulated put options to protect their spot positions [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the domestic market sentiment has weakened. Most coking coal spot auctions have declined, and the port - traded quasi - first - grade coke price has decreased. - On the futures side, coking coal and coke prices dropped sharply at the opening, and after the end of speculation, they returned to the original downward trend. - The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and downstream demand is marginally weakening. High valuations are difficult to sustain. - In November, coal prices are under downward pressure and will be weak in a volatile manner. Considering the limited domestic coal production and low coal mine inventories, the decline is expected to be limited. Around mid - December, prices may rise again if there is a new round of restocking. - Investment strategy: Adopt a short - term approach for single - side trading, wait and see for the long - term, and consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [3]. Iron Ore - In the short term, the arrival of iron ore at ports has weakened slightly, but subsequent shipments are not significantly affected, and inventory will continue to accumulate. - The increase in iron - water production is due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down steel mills and the end of environmental protection restrictions in Hebei. However, steel mill profits are affecting production willingness, and port inventory will continue to rise. - Although the price has rebounded at the bottom of the range, it is difficult to break through the range due to inventory pressure. - Investment strategy: Hold short positions [3]. Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices**: On November 18, for far - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3139.00 yuan/ton, 3295.00 yuan/ton, 757.50 yuan/ton, 1795.00 yuan/ton, and 1232.00 yuan/ton respectively; for near - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3090.00 yuan/ton, 3286.00 yuan/ton, 792.00 yuan/ton, 1649.50 yuan/ton, and 1159.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Changes**: The far - month contracts had price changes of 11.00 yuan/ton, 4.00 yuan/ton, 8.00 yuan/ton, - 47.00 yuan/ton, and - 38.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.35%, 0.12%, 1.07%, - 2.55%, and - 2.99%. The near - month contracts had price changes of 14.00 yuan/ton, 7.00 yuan/ton, 11.00 yuan/ton, - 48.50 yuan/ton, and - 46.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.46%, 0.21%, 1.41%, - 2.86%, and - 3.86% [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: On November 18, the inter - month spreads of RB2601 - 2605, HC2601 - 2605, I2601 - 2605, J2601 - 2605, and JM2601 - 2605 were - 49.00 yuan/ton, - 9.00 yuan/ton, 34.50 yuan/ton, - 145.50 yuan/ton, and - 73.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On November 18, the coil - to - rebar spread was 196.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.90, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.42, the rebar's on - paper profit was - 99.30 yuan/ton, and the coking on - paper profit was 108.03 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 18, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billets, and the Platts Index were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3260.00 yuan/ton, 3420.00 yuan/ton, 2970.00 yuan/ton, and 105.20 respectively [1]. - **Basis**: On November 18, the basis of HC, RB, I, J, and JM were - 16.00 yuan/ton, 160.00 yuan/ton, 30.00 yuan/ton, 84.42 yuan/ton, and 251.00 yuan/ton respectively [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on November 19, 2025, the latest spot prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5150 and 5200 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of -30 and -50. The latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract were 5474, with daily changes of -92 and weekly changes of -14 [2]. - For silicon manganese, on November 19, 2025, the latest ex - factory prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5600, 5500, 5600, 5580, and 5580 respectively. The latest price of the main contract was 5680, with a daily change of -112 and a weekly change of -84 [2]. Supply - The monthly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the weekly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China (with a capacity share of 95%) from 2021 - 2025 is also shown [5]. - The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is provided. The capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are also given [5][7]. Demand - The monthly production forecast of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025, the monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly procurement volume of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5]. - The monthly procurement volume and price of 6517 silicon manganese by HeSteel Group from 2021 - 2025 are provided. The demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025 is also shown [7][8]. Inventory - The weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 is presented. The daily inventory - related data of silicon iron on CZCE, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts from 2021 - 2025, are also shown [6]. - The daily inventory - related data of silicon manganese on CZCE, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts from 2021 - 2025, are provided. The weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is also shown [8]. Cost Profit - The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi for ferroalloys from 2021 - 2025 are presented. The market prices of raw materials such as semi - carbonated manganese ore, manganese ore, and chemical coke from 2021 - 2025 are also shown [6][7]. - The production costs in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the profits of silicon iron converted to the main contract in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the spot profit of silicon iron in Ningxia from 2021 - 2025 are provided. The profits of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region from 2021 - 2025 are also shown [6][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may see a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For the black sector, compared to short - selling, finding positions to go long for a rebound may be more cost - effective. The height of the rebound depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies. The macro factor is more important than the weak fundamentals that have been priced in [9]. - In the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and the steel consumption end still has the basis for gradual recovery [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3090 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 86,672 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.655469 million lots, down 74,279 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3240 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3286 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 120,567 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.217174 million lots, down 46,346 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, unable to effectively absorb production, and inventory continues to increase counter - seasonally [2]. - Affected by the Fed's hawkish remarks, market sentiment declined, and the consumption market cooled down in the short term. But in the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and steel consumption is expected to gradually recover [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 792.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.44% (+3.50), and the open interest changed by - 10,108 lots to 471,300 lots. The weighted open interest was 908,000 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.55 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.33% [4]. Strategy View - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded significantly, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian shipments. On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output was 236,880 tons, up 2,660 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly [5]. - High inventory still suppresses the price, but the short - term increase in pig iron output supports the iron ore demand. In the macro - vacuum period, the market is more likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 18, affected by the weakening external market sentiment, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell 1.93% to close at 5680 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) fell 1.65% to close at 5474 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy View - In the past week, the black sector continued to decline and fluctuate. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectations are expected to have a positive impact on sentiment and prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point [8]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack a major contradiction. If the commodity sentiment recovers and the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore segment. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (SI2601) of industrial silicon closed at 8980 yuan/ton, down 1.10% (-100). The weighted open - interest changed by - 451 lots to 400,728 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9350 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis was 370 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy View: The supply - side contraction trend is emerging. The demand side shows a decline in polysilicon production and a possible reduction in industrial silicon procurement demand due to the planned production cuts in the organic silicon industry. Industrial silicon may face a situation of "both supply and demand being weak". The cost side provides support, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (PS2601) of polysilicon closed at 52,210 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-445). The weighted open - interest changed by +2239 lots to 236,480 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, and the basis was 90 yuan/ton [14]. - Strategy View: Polysilicon is still caught between reality and expectations. The production in November decreased, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is still highly volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1017 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.17% (-12). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 0.18%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 5546 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 32,223 lots [17]. - Strategy View: The supply contraction is limited, and the demand is weak. The enterprise inventory is high, and the spot price is under pressure. Although there is cost support and positive policy expectations, the current supply - demand imbalance and the decline in the futures market intensify the downward pressure on prices, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1214 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.38% (-17). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 858 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 16,055 lots [19]. - Strategy View: The soda ash industry supply is still at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is mediocre. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20].