Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current copper market shows inventory accumulation both at home and abroad, and it is the off - season for domestic demand. The short - term spot market has weak support for copper prices, and copper prices are mainly macro - driven. The weak US dollar and the loose monetary policies of China and the US are conducive to risk assets, so the short - term downside space for copper is limited, and attention should be paid to the support level of 77,000 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market showed a slight increase of 0.08%, with the main contract closing at 78,330 and the spot price rising by 90 to 78,420. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was stable, rising by 5 to 180. The premium of US - dollar copper declined, and the market supply and demand were weak. The LME0 - 3 contango structure remained around 50, and the expectation of inventory accumulation for LME copper was strong [10]. - The domestic and foreign markets are both experiencing inventory accumulation, and it is the off - season for domestic demand. The short - term spot market has weak support for copper prices. Copper prices are mainly influenced by the macro - environment. The weak US dollar and the loose monetary policies of China and the US are favorable for risk assets, and the short - term downside space for copper is limited. Attention should be paid to the support level of 77,000 [10]. 3.2. Industry News - Mitsubishi Materials Corporation is considering reducing the copper concentrate processing volume of its Onahama Smelting Co., Ltd. It plans to reduce the copper concentrate processing volume by shutting down some facilities after the scheduled equipment maintenance from October to November this year, while maintaining the processing volume of electronic waste to improve the utilization ratio of recycled materials and profitability [11]. - Non - formal miners in Peru have suspended negotiations with the government and may resume protests due to differences in the negotiations. Miners who cannot meet the deadline will be excluded from the government's work regularization plan [11]. - Vedant's performance report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 shows that the company's quarterly profit did not meet expectations. Although local demand was strong, it could not offset the negative impacts of falling aluminum and copper prices and increased tax expenditures. The company's total revenue increased by 6.2% year - on - year to 374.34 billion rupees (about 4.3 billion US dollars), but the net profit decreased by 11.7% year - on - year to 31.85 billion rupees [12].

记者丨董鹏 编辑丨骆一帆 未来几年，除了5000亿市值的紫金矿业以外，"紫金系"很可能会再增紫金黄金国际、藏格矿业 两家千亿级别的上市平台。 上周末，藏格矿业发布了紫金矿业入主后的首份半年报。当期，该公司在实现16.8亿元营收的 基础上，扣非后净利润达到18.1亿元，同比增长41.55%。 其中关键，便在于巨龙铜业为其贡献的12.64亿元投资收益，这构成了上市公司当期利润的主 要来源。 更为重要的是， 后续藏格矿业还有其他明确的项目增量。 短期内，包括计划2025年底投产的巨龙铜业二期，投产后其年产量有望翻倍增加至30-35万 吨，中远期则有已经获得采矿许可的麻米错项目、处于"探转采"阶段的老挝钾盐项目。 "2025年7月，老挝发展就地下开采系统充填研究攻关召开启动会，紫金集团副总工程师带队攻 关，项目科研与前期工程正按计划推进。"藏格矿业在业绩说明会上指出。 后续，随着以上项目产能的释放，将显著增厚公司利润规模，近期部分卖方研究员已将其2026 年利润预期值上调至61亿元左右。 截至目前， 藏格矿业总市值已经升至750亿元，如若上述盈利预期能够兑现，后续公司确实存 在冲刺千亿市值的可能性。 此外，加上总资产 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 50% import tariff on semi-finished copper products, while exempting refined copper and copper raw materials, leading to a significant market reaction with New York copper prices dropping over 20% [2][3][4] - Analysts noted that the tariff policy deviated from market expectations, which anticipated a blanket 50% tariff on all forms of copper, causing a sell-off among bullish positions [4][5] - Despite the short-term price drop, the long-term outlook for copper remains positive due to ongoing demand from the renewable energy transition, which is expected to support copper prices [5][6] Group 2 - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum Co. reported minimal impact from the tariff changes, as their copper products fall within the exempt category and are sold globally [6][8] - The majority of copper companies derive significant revenue from domestic markets, with Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous Metals having 87.39% and 74.60% of their revenues from China, respectively [6][7] - Companies with substantial overseas operations, such as Hailiang Co., have proactively adjusted their strategies to mitigate risks from changing international trade environments, maintaining a balanced supply chain [6][8]

品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铜 9646.0 9692.0 9576.0 9641.5 0.40% 【铜市场消息速递】 智利当地时间8月1日凌晨发生地震，导致Codelco旗下El Teniente铜矿发生人员伤亡事故，有消息称地震 导致6人死亡。预计2025年El Teniente铜产量为37万金属吨。 8月1日电解铜现货沪伦比值为8.14，进口盈亏：-249.88元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-161.95元/吨。 8月1日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 北京时间8月4日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格震荡上行，今日开盘报9659.5美元/吨，现报每吨 9661美元/吨，涨幅0.29%，盘中最高触及9666.5美元/吨，最低下探9630美元/吨。 LME铜期货行情回顾： 8月1日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单127475吨。注销仓单14275吨，减少2700吨；铜库存 141750吨，增加3550吨。 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：国内政策仍将积极有为 【市场资讯】1）美国 7 月非农新增就业 7.3 万远低于预期，前两月数据大幅下修 25.8 万； 7 月失业率回升至 4.2%，符合预期，前值 4.1%；时薪同比涨幅从上修后的 3.8%上涨至 3.9%。 美联储官员：就业市场风险可能增加，还没准备提高降息预期。"新美联储通讯社"：非农 就业降温为 9 月降息打开大门，尽管通胀仍令人担忧。2）美国 7 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 48， 创九个月最快萎缩，就业指数创五年多最低。3）特朗普：若不降息，美联储理事会应"接 手掌管"。美联储理事库格勒辞职，特朗普兴奋不已，有望提前插手利率决策、布局鲍威尔 接班人。4）非农数据疲软，特朗普甩锅：拜登任命的官员编制，罢免统计局局长；引发市 场对数据完整性担忧。5）特朗普 2.0 时期首次对俄罗斯军事威胁，称下令将两艘美军核潜 艇部署至相应区域。6）老百姓买国债的利息免税标准：每月不超过 10 万。7）"2025 暑期 档电影总票房突破 70 亿，单日票房创新高。8）欧佩克+同意 9 月增产 54.7 万桶/日，消息 称下月会议或再考虑增产。9）美国贸易代表格里尔：新一轮关税"基 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The decline in copper prices during the week was mainly due to the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy. The US will impose a 50% import tariff on copper tubes, copper fittings, and other semi - finished copper products from this Friday, and expand it to a large number of copper - using finished products such as cables and electrical components. However, the tariff does not cover raw materials. [2] - The price of SHFE copper is still closely linked to LME copper. The weakness in downstream demand is expected to become apparent this week. [2] - The price of SHFE copper is expected to decline slightly, with a weekly price range of 77,700 - 78,500 yuan per ton. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Copper Futures Market - **Price and Volume Data**: The latest price of SHFE copper main contract was 78,400 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.76%. The international copper was at 69,530 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. LME copper 3 - month was at 9,633, down 1.66%, and COMEX copper was at 444.3, down 23.45%. [4] 2. Copper Spot Market - **Spot Price and Premium**: The spot prices of various copper products in Shanghai, Guangdong, and other places all declined. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper was 78,330 yuan/ton, down 1.41%. The premiums of different regions showed different degrees of change, with the Shanghai Non - ferrous premium rising by 40% to 175 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Copper Advanced Data - **Advanced Indicators**: The copper import loss narrowed to - 249.88 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of - 48.21%. The copper - to - aluminum ratio decreased to 3.8095, down 0.45%. The refined - scrap copper price difference dropped to 805.43 yuan/ton, down 4.2%. [8] 4. Copper Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE copper inventory decreased to 72,543 tons, down 1.2%. LME copper inventory increased to 141,750 tons, up 10.33%. COMEX copper inventory rose to 259,681 tons, up 4.44%. [13] 5. Copper Mid - stream Production - **Monthly Output**: In June 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.302 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. The monthly output of copper products was 2.214 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. [17] 6. Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization - **Capacity Utilization Rates**: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 62.32%, that of scrap copper rods was 32.01%, that of copper strips was 68.73%, that of copper bars was 51.52%, and that of copper tubes was 72.25%. [20] 7. Copper Element Imports - **Monthly Import Data**: In June 2025, the import of copper concentrates was 2.34969 million tons, up 2% year - on - year; the import of anode copper was 68,548 tons, up 2% year - on - year; the import of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, up 5% year - on - year; the import of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, up 8% year - on - year; and the import of copper products was 460,000 tons, up 6.5% year - on - year. [24]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, citing national security concerns, which has caused significant volatility in the global copper market [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Copper Market - The announcement of the tariff led to a 20% drop in copper futures prices on July 30, following a period of rising prices due to market speculation about the tariffs [2][3]. - Prior to the tariff announcement, copper futures had reached a record high of $5.8955 per pound, driven by expectations of the tariffs [2]. - The tariff policy has disrupted the previous premium for U.S. copper over London Metal Exchange (LME) prices, which had reached a 28% premium [2][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Inventory Dynamics - U.S. copper inventories at the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) have surged to 232,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21,900 tons, indicating a significant buildup of stock [3]. - The U.S. imported 864,000 tons of copper in the first half of the year, up 514,000 tons from the previous year, reflecting increased demand amid tariff speculation [3]. - The potential for excess inventory in the U.S. market may suppress COMEX copper prices, with concerns about inventory outflows impacting LME prices and domestic prices in China [3]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on copper prices, long-term demand for copper is expected to rise due to trends in electric vehicles, data centers, and grid modernization, which may support higher copper prices [3][5]. - The U.S. is the second-largest consumer of copper globally, with projected consumption of approximately 1.6 million tons in 2024, while domestic production remains limited [5]. - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for refined copper, with 46% of its refined copper needs met through imports, highlighting a critical gap in its supply chain [5]. Group 4: Future Policy Considerations - The U.S. government is considering further tariffs on refined copper, with potential rates of 15% starting in 2027, increasing to 30% in subsequent years, which could impact domestic production and investment [6]. - The proposed export licensing for high-quality copper scrap aims to ensure a stable supply of raw materials while promoting domestic refining capacity [6]. - The effectiveness of the tariff policy in fostering domestic copper industry growth remains uncertain, as significant capital investment and time are required to develop new refining capabilities [6].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 2025/08/02 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The internal and external basis fluctuates strongly, the refined scrap price difference narrows, and the global visible inventory increases, with the copper valuation being slightly on the long side. In terms of drivers, the increase in copper concentrate processing fees has a neutral impact on the copper price, the surge in the US dollar index is bearish, and the improvement in the global manufacturing PMI is bullish [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate has increased slightly, and the processing fee of blister copper has risen month - on - month. The supply of cold materials has marginally eased. In June, Chile's copper production decreased significantly month - on - month and turned from an increase to a decrease year - on - year. The EI Teniente copper mine accident may exacerbate the tight supply situation [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 21,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1,000 tons to 73,000 tons, LME increased by 13,000 tons to 142,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 8,000 tons to 234,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 4,000 tons [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import of domestic electrolytic copper maintained a small loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,000 tons, and the net imports were 258,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1% [11]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and the spot supply was relatively tight. The refined scrap price difference in the domestic market narrowed slightly, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The copper price fluctuated weakly. The main contract of SHFE copper fell 1.07% week - on - week, and LME copper fell 0.66% to $9,633/ton [23]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of copper showed a downward trend. The price difference between different regions and varieties also changed [25]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper price fluctuated weakly, and the basis quotation rebounded. The LME inventory continued to increase, and the Cash/3M maintained a discount [28]. - **Structure**: The near - month structure of SHFE copper futures flattened; the near - month Contango of LME copper shrank, and the far - month Contango structure expanded [31]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate increased slightly, and the sulfuric acid price in East China remained flat, which still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [36]. - **Import and Export Ratio**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import of copper had a small loss [41]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased, and the inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area also increased. The inventory reduction of SHFE came from Jiangsu and Shanghai, and the LME inventory increase came from Asian warehouses [44][47][50]. 4. Supply Side - **Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output**: In July 2025, China's refined copper output increased by nearly 40,000 tons month - on - month, reaching a new high, and it is expected to decline slightly in August [55]. - **Import and Export Situation**: In June 2025, China's copper ore imports decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of refined copper increased year - on - year, and the export increased month - on - month [58][61][64]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: China's manufacturing PMI declined in June, and the manufacturing prosperity of overseas major economies was divided [80]. - **Downstream Industry Output Data**: In June, the output of some downstream industries such as power generation equipment increased year - on - year, while the output of color TVs decreased [83]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to June, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, and the national real estate prosperity index continued to decline in June [86]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate**: The operating rates of most downstream copper enterprises showed a downward trend in June, and some are expected to continue to decline in July [89][92][95]. - **Refined Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined scrap price difference narrowed slightly [100]. 6. Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper decreased by 55,866 to 965,272 lots (bilateral) [105]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of July 22, the CFTC fund position remained net long, but the net long ratio declined. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds rebounded as of July 25 [108].

Group 1 - The company, Northern Copper Industry, reported that as of July 31, 2025, the number of shareholders is expected to reach 120,634 [1]

注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 证券时报•数据宝统计，截至发稿，北方铜业收盘价为10.69元，上涨0.56%，本期筹码集中以来股价累 计下跌1.11%。具体到各交易日，4次上涨，6次下跌。 公司发布的一季报数据显示，一季度公司共实现营业收入68.38亿元，同比增长23.56%，实现净利润 3.71亿元，同比增长57.29%，基本每股收益为0.1950元，加权平均净资产收益率5.77%。（数据宝） （原标题：北方铜业最新股东户数环比下降11.46% 筹码趋向集中） 北方铜业8月1日披露，截至7月31日公司股东户数为120634户，较上期（7月20日）减少15611户，环比 降幅为11.46%。这已是该公司股东户数连续第2期下降。 ...