- The report introduces a "Total Heat Indicator" as a proxy variable for tracking market sentiment. This indicator is defined as the sum of browsing, watchlist additions, and clicks for individual stocks, normalized as a percentage of the total market on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000. The value range is [0, 10,000][7] - A "Broad-based Index Heat Rotation Strategy" is constructed based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of major indices. The strategy involves buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, or staying in cash if the "Others" group has the highest rate. The strategy achieved an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a 2025 return of 24.5%[13][16] - A "Concept Heat Strategy" is developed by selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest weekly heat change rates. Two portfolios are constructed: 1. "TOP Portfolio" includes the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within each concept 2. "BOTTOM Portfolio" includes the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within each concept Historical results show the BOTTOM Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a 2025 return of 33%[31][33]

Group 1 - The stock price of Liren Technology closed at 26.54 yuan on August 15, 2025, down 0.97% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 16,274 hands, with a transaction amount of 0.43 billion yuan [1] - Liren Technology's main business includes the research, production, and sales of small household appliances, covering various categories such as kitchen and living appliances [1] Group 2 - On the evening of August 15, Liren Technology announced that its fourth board of directors' third meeting approved the proposal to use idle raised funds for cash management [1] - The supervisory board meeting held on the same day also approved this proposal [1] - On August 15, the net inflow of main funds was 2.8122 million yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 5.0716 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - "Anti - involution" will alleviate the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profit", with a greater boost to PPI than CPI, and promote the nominal GDP growth rate to approach the real GDP growth rate [5][21]. - The US economy shows signs of weakness, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, with an expected cumulative rate cut of 75bp in 2025 [5][83]. - China's economic growth rate in 2025 may be high in the first half and low in the second half, but it can achieve the 5% target for the whole year [5]. - The A - share market still has a certain degree of sustainability, and the bond market is likely to fluctuate narrowly, while the commodity market will enter a wide - range shock trend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1 "Anti - involution": Alleviate the Dilemma of "Increasing Revenue without Increasing Profit" and Improve Market Performance Expectations - **Overview**: "Anti - involution" aims to promote the economy to return from "scale expansion" to "high - quality growth", improve social overall efficiency, and is a key part of building a unified national market [10][11]. - **Approach**: Different from the previous supply - side reform, it focuses on downstream emerging industries, mainly private enterprises, with more moderate and gradual policies using market - based and legal means [18][19]. - **Impact**: It is expected to have a greater impact on PPI than CPI, and promote the nominal GDP growth rate to approach the real GDP growth rate, but there is uncertainty in the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream [21][24]. - **Style**: From April to September, the market pays more attention to performance, and the "anti - involution" direction has performance release expectations [28]. - **Law**: It may be a key factor supporting the strength of the A - share market, and the current "anti - involution" market is in the policy - expectation stage [32][36]. - **Summary**: It can alleviate the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profit" and improve market performance expectations [46]. 2 Global: The US Economy Shows Signs of Weakness, and the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectation is Rising - **Overseas Tariffs**: The US average effective tariff rate has reached the highest level since 1933, reducing global economic growth potential, and tariffs remain a key variable affecting China's exports [49]. - **Overseas Economy**: The global economy has short - term resilience, but the US economy shows signs of weakness in investment, and the Fed has lowered its economic growth forecast [55][60][66]. - **Overseas Inflation**: The short - term impact of tariffs on US inflation is emerging, and the medium - term inflation trend still faces great uncertainty [69][73]. - **Overseas Liquidity**: The inflection point of non - farm data may have arrived, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, with an expected 75bp rate cut in 2025 [77][83]. - **Summary**: The global economy has short - term resilience but increasing uncertainty, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising [83]. 3 China: The Economic Growth Rate May be High in the First Half and Low in the Second Half, and the Spontaneous Recovery Momentum Needs to be Consolidated - **Economic Overview**: China's economic growth rate in 2025 may be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the GDP growth rate in Q3 and Q4 expected to decline compared with Q1 and Q2 [84]. - **Investment End**: The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continues to bottom out, and real estate investment is still the main drag [85]. - **Consumption End**: Consumption data still has resilience, and service consumption may be the key area of development [27]. - **Export End**: Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs and export over - draw effects [5][28]. - **Liquidity**: The government sector is still the main force for increasing leverage, and the time for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is expected to be postponed [28]. - **Summary**: The annual economic growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half [29]. 4 Market Strategy: Positive Factors are Gradually Accumulating to Strengthen the Foundation for the A - share Market to Improve - **General Trend Judgment**: The subsequent market is expected to have a certain degree of sustainability [30]. - **Policy Trends**: The economic policy in the second half of the year is expected to maintain its stance and act appropriately [32]. - **Allocation Framework**: Gradually increase the allocation of stock assets [33]. - **Investment Advice**: The equity index will run strongly, the bond market may fluctuate narrowly, and the commodity market will enter a wide - range shock trend [5][33].

Core Insights - The non-banking financial sector experienced the highest net inflow of capital today, amounting to 15.498 billion yuan, with a price change of 3.16% and a turnover rate of 3.28% [1][2] - The communication sector faced the largest net outflow of capital, totaling -3.451 billion yuan, with a price change of 0.58% and a turnover rate of 2.47% [1][2] Industry Summary - **Non-banking Financial**: - Trading volume: 136.04 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +45.43% - Turnover rate: 3.28% - Price change: +3.16% - Net capital inflow: 15.498 billion yuan [1] - **Communication**: - Trading volume: 43.20 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -2.82% - Turnover rate: 2.47% - Price change: +0.58% - Net capital outflow: -3.451 billion yuan [1] - **Electric Power Equipment**: - Trading volume: 99.65 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +7.36% - Turnover rate: 3.98% - Price change: +2.85% - Net capital inflow: 5.527 billion yuan [1] - **Metals**: - Trading volume: 73.37 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +3.71% - Turnover rate: 3.34% - Price change: +2.23% - Net capital inflow: 3.690 billion yuan [1] - **Electronics**: - Trading volume: 105.13 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -6.15% - Turnover rate: 3.80% - Price change: +2.05% - Net capital inflow: 2.927 billion yuan [1] - **Household Appliances**: - Trading volume: 26.82 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +28.05% - Turnover rate: 3.53% - Price change: +1.07% - Net capital inflow: 2.014 billion yuan [1] - **Basic Chemicals**: - Trading volume: 69.90 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -10.39% - Turnover rate: 2.58% - Price change: +2.09% - Net capital inflow: 1.612 billion yuan [1] - **Machinery Equipment**: - Trading volume: 101.55 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -10.39% - Turnover rate: 3.74% - Price change: +1.94% - Net capital inflow: 0.746 billion yuan [1] - **Environmental Protection**: - Trading volume: 16.69 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -18.60% - Turnover rate: 1.85% - Price change: +1.11% - Net capital inflow: 0.659 billion yuan [1] - **Computers**: - Trading volume: 103.15 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -10.46% - Turnover rate: 5.78% - Price change: +2.34% - Net capital inflow: 0.598 billion yuan [1] - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: - Trading volume: 20.43 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -0.92% - Turnover rate: 2.15% - Price change: +0.89% - Net capital inflow: 0.363 billion yuan [1] - **Real Estate**: - Trading volume: 47.51 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +0.68% - Turnover rate: 2.19% - Price change: +2.11% - Net capital inflow: 0.361 billion yuan [1] - **Transportation**: - Trading volume: 35.10 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -2.33% - Turnover rate: 0.83% - Price change: +0.68% - Net capital inflow: 0.292 billion yuan [1] - **Comprehensive**: - Trading volume: 4.12 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -15.09% - Turnover rate: 2.44% - Price change: +3.92% - Net capital inflow: 0.165 billion yuan [1] - **Light Industry Manufacturing**: - Trading volume: 25.68 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -0.23% - Turnover rate: 3.10% - Price change: +0.78% - Net capital inflow: 0.141 billion yuan [1] - **Building Materials**: - Trading volume: 22.86 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -2.28% - Turnover rate: 3.07% - Price change: +2.29% - Net capital inflow: 0.088 billion yuan [1] - **Public Utilities**: - Trading volume: 40.81 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -2.88% - Turnover rate: 1.02% - Price change: +0.56% - Net capital inflow: 0.057 billion yuan [1] - **Social Services**: - Trading volume: 14.43 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -21.40% - Turnover rate: 3.24% - Price change: +1.18% - Net capital inflow: 0.051 billion yuan [1] - **Automobiles**: - Trading volume: 64.07 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -13.61% - Turnover rate: 2.90% - Price change: +1.63% - Net capital outflow: -0.018 billion yuan [1] - **Construction and Decoration**: - Trading volume: 42.39 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -13.91% - Turnover rate: 1.51% - Price change: +0.54% - Net capital outflow: -0.113 billion yuan [1] - **Textiles and Apparel**: - Trading volume: 17.67 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -23.78% - Turnover rate: 2.52% - Price change: +0.65% - Net capital outflow: -0.157 billion yuan [2] - **Beauty and Personal Care**: - Trading volume: 2.60 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -25.22% - Turnover rate: 2.63% - Price change: +0.64% - Net capital outflow: -0.184 billion yuan [2] - **Coal**: - Trading volume: 10.82 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -24.60% - Turnover rate: 0.95% - Price change: +0.61% - Net capital outflow: -0.205 billion yuan [2] - **Steel**: - Trading volume: 29.83 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -16.60% - Turnover rate: 1.51% - Price change: +0.65% - Net capital outflow: -0.290 billion yuan [2] - **Retail Trade**: - Trading volume: 22.58 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -22.95% - Turnover rate: 1.88% - Price change: +0.54% - Net capital outflow: -0.292 billion yuan [2] - **Oil and Gas**: - Trading volume: 14.29 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +4.42% - Turnover rate: 0.39% - Price change: +0.93% - Net capital outflow: -0.560 billion yuan [2] - **Food and Beverage**: - Trading volume: 13.67 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -18.05% - Turnover rate: 1.49% - Price change: +0.04% - Net capital outflow: -1.165 billion yuan [2] - **Media**: - Trading volume: 48.82 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -18.65% - Turnover rate: 3.33% - Price change: +0.51% - Net capital outflow: -1.195 billion yuan [2] - **Pharmaceuticals**: - Trading volume: 78.17 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -8.57% - Turnover rate: 2.86% - Price change: +1.16% - Net capital outflow: -1.335 billion yuan [2] - **Defense and Military**: - Trading volume: 32.27 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -22.89% - Turnover rate: 4.00% - Price change: +1.26% - Net capital outflow: -2.553 billion yuan [2] - **Banking**: - Trading volume: 62.53 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +72.06% - Turnover rate: 0.47% - Price change: -1.46% - Net capital outflow: -3.119 billion yuan [2]

导语 二季度，社保基金持仓股票中，增持的主要涉及银行、化工、电子等行业，偏好业绩稳定增长的个股；新进个股行业分布则较为多元，既关注传统优势行 业，也布局新兴成长领域。 在银行板块中，常熟银行成为社保基金较为青睐的个股，截至6月底，共有4个组合出现在该行十大流通股东名单中，合计持股 2.78 亿股，占该行流通股 比例达到8.38%，其中新增持股2379.72万股， 行业分布方面，17只新进个股涵盖了基础化工、家用电器、社会服务、计算机、交通运输等多个行业领域，传统优势行业与新兴成长板块均有涉及。 二季度重仓股有涨有跌 据Choice统计，截至8月14日，社保基金已在近50家上市公司半年报前十大流通股东中现身，合计持股数量超过8亿股，持股市值合计超过151亿元。从持 股变动来看，新进17只个股，增持15只，减持9只，没有变化的共有有8只。 从新进个股来看，涵盖了基础化工、家用电器、社会服务、计算机、交通运输等多个行业领域。业绩表现方面，超过六成上半年净利润实现增长。 从市场表现来，上述二季度社保基金重仓的个股年初至今的平均涨幅超过22%，超过七成个股上涨。 多领域布局17只新进个股 二季度社保基金重仓股超过七成半 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market continues its upward trend, with the cash flow strategy performing well, as evidenced by the 500 cash flow index rising by 2.23% and the free cash flow index increasing by 1.68% as of 1:30 PM on August 15 [1] - Over 300 A-share companies have disclosed their semi-annual reports by August 14, with nearly 200 companies reporting year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, over 30 companies turning losses into profits, and nearly 30 companies achieving a year-on-year profit increase of more than 100% [1] - Key industries such as automotive, electrical equipment, and non-ferrous metals have shown strong performance in the first half of the year among A-share companies [1] Group 2 - The free cash flow ETF (159201) focuses on industry leaders with abundant free cash flow, covering sectors such as home appliances, automotive, non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, and oil and petrochemicals, providing significant industry diversification to mitigate single-industry volatility risks [1] - The fund management annual fee rate is 0.15%, and the custody annual fee rate is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest in the market [1] - The cash flow 500 ETF (560120) targets sectors like non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, transportation, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, combining growth and quality with characteristics of small and mid-cap stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a positive trend with major indices rising, particularly the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, which increased by over 1.1%, led by constituent stocks such as Anfu Technology, Ningbo Huaxiang, and Shanghai Electric [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index gaining more than 1.1% during the trading session [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) followed the index's upward movement, with active trading resulting in a transaction volume exceeding 100 million yuan [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The central bank announced a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - Combined with a previous 700 billion yuan three-month reverse repurchase operation on August 8, the total reverse repurchase operations for the month have exceeded 300 billion yuan, effectively injecting medium-term liquidity [1] - Market expectations suggest that the central bank may also increase the amount of MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) renewals after 300 billion yuan matures this month [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The free cash flow ETF (159201) focuses on industry leaders with abundant free cash flow, covering sectors such as home appliances, automotive, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and oil and petrochemicals, which are characterized by high barriers to entry [1] - The ETF's diversified industry exposure significantly mitigates the risk of volatility in any single sector, making it a favorable choice for core portfolio allocation [1] - The fund management fee is set at 0.15% per year, and the custody fee is 0.05% per year, both of which are the lowest in the market [1]

Overall Consumption Trends - Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.878 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [1] - Online retail sales amounted to 8.6835 trillion yuan from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [1] - Online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 24.9% of the total retail sales of consumer goods [1] Specific Consumption Categories - Retail sales of goods increased by 4% year-on-year, reaching 3.4276 trillion yuan [1] - Catering revenue increased by 1.1% year-on-year, reaching 450.4 billion yuan [1] - Online retail sales of food, clothing, and consumer goods increased by 14.7%, 1.7%, and 5.8% respectively [1] Retail Growth in Specific Sectors - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 30.4% year-on-year [1] - Retail sales of cultural and office supplies increased by 23.7% year-on-year [1] - Retail sales of communication equipment increased by 22.9% year-on-year [1] - Retail sales of furniture increased by 22.6% year-on-year [1] - Retail sales of sports and entertainment products increased by 21.1% year-on-year [1] - Retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry increased by 11% year-on-year [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.5%, while the CSI 300 decreased by 0.1%. The STAR Market 50 rose by 0.7%, the CSI 1000 dropped by 1.2%, the ChiNext Index declined by 1.1%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.4% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors included non-bank financials (+0.6%), banks (-0.0%), food and beverage (-0.2%), home appliances (-0.3%), and real estate (-0.5%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-2.7%), defense and military (-2.2%), telecommunications (-2.1%), steel (-2.0%), and textiles and apparel (-1.7%) [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 22,792 billion, with a net inflow of 1.03 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates a rise in funds and a transition phase, highlighting government leverage and the non-bankization of deposits. The market anticipates a favorable financial data outlook [5] - The credit growth is gradually slowing, reflecting a structural transformation in the economy, leading to a shift in credit demand and a positive substitution for direct financing. Future evaluations of financial support should focus more on the effectiveness of interest rate reductions, indicating a new characteristic of "government increasing leverage, enterprises stabilizing leverage, and residents appropriately deleveraging" [5] - A forward-looking perspective suggests paying attention to new characteristics in financial data and the migration of residents' deposits [5]

二季度社保基金重仓股超过七成半年报业绩上涨 多领域布局17只新进个股 二季度，社保基金持仓股票中，增持的主要涉及银行、化工、电子等行业，偏好业绩稳定增长的个股； 新进个股行业分布则较为多元，既关注传统优势行业，也布局新兴成长领域。 在银行板块中，常熟银行成为社保基金较为青睐的个股，截至6月底，共有4个组合出现在该行十大流通 股东名单中，合计持股 2.78 亿股，占该行流通股比例达到8.38%，其中新增持股2379.72万股， 新进个股方面，截至目前，社保基金二季度共新进了17只个股，其中5只持股超过千万股，其中持股数 量最多的是卫星化学（002648.SZ），为2016.93万股；其次是苏试试验（300416.SZ），持股数量 1486.20万股，另有4个社保基金组合同时进入该公司前十大流通股东名单。 从新进个股的配置比例来看，中触媒（688267.SH）获得社保基金较高配置比例，持股占流通股比例为 3.45%。资料显示，该公司从事特种催化剂及其他化工产品的研发、生产与销售。此外，北鼎股份 （300824.SZ）、苏试试验的配置比例也达到3%左右。 行业分布方面，17只新进个股涵盖了基础化工、家用电器、社会服 ...