Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188)(01171) experienced weak performance in the first half of the year, with net profit declining by 39% year-on-year, indicating a 49% drop in net profit for the second quarter to RMB 2.021 billion [1] Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.18 per share, with a payout ratio of 38%, slightly higher than the 31% from the same period last year [1] - UBS has adjusted its earnings forecasts for Yanzhou Coal Mining upwards by 7% and 6% for the next two years [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Yanzhou Coal Mining has been raised from HKD 6.8 to HKD 7, while maintaining a "Sell" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Shenhua's (601088)(01088) earnings and dividends for the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with net profit down 15% year-on-year, aligning with the profit forecast median [1] Financial Performance - The company's net profit for the second quarter decreased by 10% year-on-year to 13.3 billion RMB [1] - A mid-term dividend of 0.98 RMB per share was declared, with a payout ratio of 79%, higher than the guidance and last year's 76.5% [1] Earnings Forecast - UBS slightly raised its earnings estimates for China Shenhua by 3% and 7% for the current and next year, respectively [1] - The target price was increased from 27.8 HKD to 29.6 HKD, while maintaining a "Sell" rating [1] Industry Insights - The company's stable earnings are attributed to effective cost control, and the dividend payout ratio exceeded expectations [1] - Seasonal weakness in thermal coal demand is anticipated as summer ends, which may lead to a slightly positive reaction from investors regarding the latest performance [1] - According to recent surveys with industry experts, the anti-involution policies in the coal industry have had limited actual impact on the thermal coal supply side [1]

"反内卷"无疑是今年市场关注的最重要的主题之一。自7月初财经委会议上被再次强调以来，市场已对相 关行业进行了交易定价。那么站在当前时点，反内卷还要关注吗？应该如何调整投资策略呢？ 首先，反内卷的进程不但没有结束，反而正在进入实质性落地的阶段。7月以来从中央政治局会议，到国 务院、发改委、工信部等有关部门均密集发声定调"反内卷"，相应地各行业也有针对性地推出反内卷相关 措施。8月29日国家发改委再次发声表示将会同有关部门依法依规查处低于成本倾销、夸大和虚假宣传的 行为，加快治理部分领域的无序竞争问题。可以说反内卷绝不只是喊喊口号，而是正要加紧将政策落地实 施，助力行业真正实现良性发展。 从投资视角看，本轮反内卷主题交易初期，大家还是习惯性地想到了此前供给侧改革时表现最为突出的钢 铁、煤炭等黑色产业链。因而这些板块也在第一阶段表现出了更强的弹性。但时间走入8月后，光伏异军 突起，弹性明显超过黑色产业链，这是为什么呢？ 核心的问题在于，本轮反内卷不同于此前的供给侧改革，更强调通过市场化手段实现行业调整，而不是依 靠行政干预。因而市场的关注重心从哪些板块更容易被政策敢于，变成关注哪些板块最有可能看到反内卷 的效果，因 ...

今日早参 2025 年 9 月 02 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：人民币加速升值，流动性保持宽松 偏低基数和极端天气扰动退坡下，8 月经济高频指标同比稳健；地产成交边 际企稳，部分可能受北京上海地产政策优化和潜在的财富效应提振；居民暑 期出行景气度较高，但以旧换新补贴对汽车消费的支撑边际退坡；外需方 面，8 月港口高频指标显示出口同比或较 7 月放缓。出行及消费方面，7 月 1 日-8 月 23 日全国铁路累计发送旅客数同比+6.4%，8 月国内/国际航班数同比 走高 0.9%/5.3%；8 月 1-24 日，乘用车日均零售销量同比较 7 月的 7%放缓 至 3%。出口方面，高频指标显示 8 月出口同比增速或较 7 月有所放缓。制 造业开工维持韧性：8 月焦化/高炉开工率高于去年同期 3/4.6 个百分点，水 泥开工率同比回落 7.3 个百分点，建筑钢材成交量亦低于去年同期 10.8%。 地产方面，8 月 1-30 日，44 城新房/22 城二手房成交面积同比增速较 7 月的 -19.8%/-6.1 ...

该行表示，中国神华稳健盈利是受惠于其成本控制，而且派息比率胜预期，不过，由于夏季结束，热煤需求将出现季节性疲弱，因此整体预计投 资者对最新业绩有稍微正面的反应。另外，根据该行最近与行业专家的调查，煤炭行业的反内卷政策迄今对热煤供应端的实际影响有限。 （原标题：瑞银：升中国神华(01088)目标价至29.6港元 派息胜预期） 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，中国神华(01088)上半年的盈利及派息均胜于预期，纯利同比跌15%，处于盈利预告的中位，亦意味着公司 次季盈利同比降10%至133亿元人民币;派中期息0.98元人民币，派息比率为79%，高于指引及去年同期的76.5%水平。该行将中国神华今明两年的 盈测轻微上调3%和7%，并将目标价由27.8港元调升至29.6港元，维持"沽售"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent emergence of Honghu Fund in the top ten shareholders of several listed companies, indicating a strategic investment approach by insurance capital in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Shareholding Situation - Honghu Fund Phase II has entered the top ten shareholders of China Petroleum and China Shenhua, marking its first appearance in these lists with a market value exceeding 18 billion and 21 billion respectively [1][3]. - Honghu Fund Phase III has been listed as the eighth largest shareholder of Sinopec, holding approximately 3.05 billion shares valued at 17.63 billion [5][6]. - As of June 30, 2025, Honghu Fund has appeared in the top ten shareholders of six listed companies, including Shaanxi Coal, Yili, and China Telecom, with stable holdings compared to the previous quarter [3][6]. Group 2: Fund Structure and Management - Honghu Fund consists of three phases with a total scale of 110 billion, managed by Guofeng Xinghua, a joint venture of China Life Asset and Xinhua Asset [6][8]. - Phase I has a scale of 50 billion, fully invested by China Life and Xinhua Insurance, achieving good returns as of March this year [6][8]. - Phase II, with a scale of 20 billion, has completed its main investment positions by the end of Q2 [6][8]. - Phase III, initiated in early July, has a scale of 40 billion, divided into two products, with significant contributions from various insurance companies [6][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Performance - The investment philosophy of Honghu Fund emphasizes long-term, value, and stable investments, focusing on companies with competitive advantages and good governance [8][11]. - The fund targets large-cap A+H shares that exhibit stable dividends and good liquidity, with a preference for blue-chip companies [8][9]. - The average dividend yield of the six listed companies in which Honghu Fund has invested is relatively high, with four energy and coal stocks exceeding 5% [9][10]. - As of June 30, the total assets of Honghu Fund Phase I reached 57.11 billion, with a net profit of 9.68 billion for the first half of the year, indicating strong performance [11][12].

单季度来看，公司Q2 业绩下滑。2025Q2 公司商品煤销量542 万吨，同比-17.6%，其中自产商品煤销量 449 万吨，同比-20.6%。价格方面，平均煤炭售价774 元/吨，同比-23.9%；平均成本623 元/吨，同 比-11.7%，吨毛利151 元/吨，同比-51.6%。 "东引西进出海"战略及资产注入，拓宽公司发展前景。公司计划实施"东引西进出海"战略，竞拍得到新 疆白杨河矿区铁厂沟一号井煤矿勘查探矿权，资源量16.68 亿吨，并收购四棵树煤矿60%股权。此外， 为解决同业竞争问题，集团承诺将焦化、煤炭资产注入给上市公司及其子公司，涉及资产包括首山化 工、京宝化工、中鸿煤化及其他下属焦化企业、夏店矿、梁北二井、瑞平煤电张村矿、庇山矿等。公司 降本增效持续推进，积极推进"万名矿工大转岗"，同时推进主辅分离。2024 年末员工人数42366 人，相 比2020年减少43.0%。 事件：公司发布2025 年中报，2025 年H1 公司实现营业收入101.2 亿元，同比-37.95%；实现归母净利润 2.58 亿元，同比-81.53%。其中Q2 实现归母净利润1.06 亿元，同比-83.82%。 202 ...

近日，公募基金2025年中报披露结束。从行业配置来看，今年上半年，医药生物、银行、电子等板块的 基金持股市值显著增长，而电力设备、食品饮料、煤炭等板块则出现较大下降。截至报告期末，电子、 医药生物、电力设备仍为基金持仓规模最大的三大行业。个股方面（仅统计A股），舒泰神、昂利康、 潍柴重机在基金持股占流通市值比例增长方面包揽前三席，而从基金持股市值增长情况来看，国泰海 通、胜宏科技、紫金矿业排名领先。在基金持股集中度方面，诺诚健华、茂莱光学、德科立位列基金持 股占流通股比例前三名，宁德时代、贵州茅台、招商银行则位居基金持股市值排行榜前三。 ...

事件：公司发布2025 年中报，2025 年H1 公司实现营业收入1381 亿元，同比下降18.34%；归属于上市 公司股东的净利润为246 亿元，同比下降12.03%；其中Q2 公司实现营业收入685 亿元，同比下降 15.36%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为127 亿元，同比下降5.62%。 盈利预测及估值：预计2025-2027 年公司实现营业收入2856/2879/2939 亿元，同 比-15.60%/+0.81%/+2.07%，实现归母净利润为414/441/475 亿元，同比-29.4%/+6.53%/+7.55%，维持公 司"强烈推荐"评级。 长协为主，公司煤炭售价下降幅度较小。1）产销方面，2025 年H1 公司实现商品煤产量1.65 亿吨，同 比-1.7%；煤炭销售量2.05 亿吨，同比-10.9%，其中自产煤销量1.62 亿吨，同比-3.4%，产销基本稳定， 而实现外购煤销量4300 万吨，同比-31.1%。2）售价方面，公司售价随市场煤价下行，2025H1煤炭销售 平均价格（不含税）为493 元/吨，同比下降12.9%，其中自产煤售价478 元/吨，同比下降9.3%。3）成 本方面，贸易 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index futures [1][5] - **Bearish**: Live pigs, eggs [1][40][42] - **Neutral**: Treasury bonds, double cokes, rebar, glass, copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, silver, gold, PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, polyolefins, cotton, cotton yarn, PTA, apples, dates, corn, soybean meal, oils [1][5][7][9][10][11][15][16][17][19][21][24][26][28][29][31][33][34][35][36][42][44][46] Core Views - A shares opened higher in September, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering its August losses and the ChiNext Index hitting a new high. The market is expected to continue to strengthen in the medium to long term due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, the approaching Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and the slight increase in the August PMI [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain stable in the short term, but the upside potential is limited due to the lack of strong support and the potential for an increase in risk appetite [5]. - The coal market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to weak downstream demand and a lack of clear supply - demand signals [7]. - The steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall first and then rise in September. The market is waiting for signs of demand recovery [7]. - The glass market is expected to rebound in the short term due to improved demand and positive macro - sentiment. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with prices likely to rise due to the expected increase in demand during the peak season and the high level of domestic maintenance in September and October [10]. - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to rise due to the approaching peak season and the improvement in downstream demand. It is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - The nickel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall due to the oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or sell on rallies [16]. - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the tight supply of tin ore. It is recommended to trade within a range [16]. - The precious metals market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in September. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to be under pressure due to the high inventory and the uncertain export situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5000 - level pressure [19]. - The caustic soda market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the rigid demand from the alumina industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 - level support [21]. - The styrene market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to be under pressure due to the weakening supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - level pressure [24]. - The rubber market is expected to be strong in the short term, with prices likely to continue to rise due to the high raw material prices and the decline in inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15600 - level support [26]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall first and then rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1680 - 1720 support [28]. - The methanol market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be limited by the high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand situation [30]. - The polyolefin market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the approaching peak season. It is recommended to pay attention to the specified price ranges [31]. - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by the global supply - demand situation and the macro - environment. It is recommended to hedge risks [34]. - The PTA market is expected to be strong in the short term, with prices likely to rise due to the good inventory reduction and the possible suspension of OPEC's production increase in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4900 - level pressure [34]. - The apple market is expected to be strong in the short term, with prices likely to remain high due to the limited supply of high - quality early - maturing apples [36]. - The date market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to remain stable due to the normal progress of the sugar - increasing stage and the stable demand [36]. - The live pig market is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with prices likely to be limited by the large supply. It is recommended to take corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies [38]. - The egg market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to be limited by the high supply. It is recommended to sell on rallies [41]. - The corn market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by the new crop supply and the cost. It is recommended to sell on rallies [42]. - The soybean meal market is expected to have limited upside potential in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the cost. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3030 - level support [44]. - The oil market is expected to be in a high - level adjustment phase in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by various factors. It is recommended to wait for the end of the adjustment and then buy [46]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Index Futures**: The A - share market rose on Monday. The market is expected to strengthen in the medium to long term due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut, policy expectations, and economic data [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market continued to recover on Monday, but the upside potential is limited due to the lack of strong support and the potential increase in risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double Cokes**: The coal market is "mostly down and less up", with weak downstream demand. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to trade within a range [7]. - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fell on Monday. The market is expected to be volatile in September, with prices likely to fall first and then rise. It is recommended to trade in bands [7]. - **Glass**: The supply is stable, and the demand has improved. The market is expected to rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is mainly affected by macro - factors and is expected to remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to hold a moderate long position at low levels [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has increased, and the demand for downstream products is improving. It is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand for semiconductors is expected to recover. It is recommended to trade within a range [16]. - **Silver and Gold**: The prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported by the expected Fed interest rate cut. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The PVC market is expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and uncertain exports. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5000 - level pressure [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the alumina industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 - level support [21]. - **Styrene**: The styrene market is expected to be weak in the short term due to weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - level pressure [24]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is expected to be strong in the short term due to high raw material prices and declining inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15600 - level support [26]. - **Urea**: The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall first and then rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the price support level [28]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to be stable in the short term, with limited upside potential due to high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to supply - demand changes [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the approaching peak season. It is recommended to pay attention to the specified price ranges [31]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving, but the new cotton output is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to hedge risks [34]. - **PTA**: The PTA market has seen good inventory reduction, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4900 - level pressure [34]. - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and the market is expected to remain strong in the short term [36]. - **Dates**: The date market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to remain stable [36]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The live pig market is under pressure due to large supply. It is recommended to take corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies [38]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is expected to be weak in the short term due to high supply. It is recommended to sell on rallies [41]. - **Corn**: The corn market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by new crop supply and cost. It is recommended to sell on rallies [42]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market has limited upside potential in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by cost. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3030 - level support [44]. - **Oils**: The oil market is in a high - level adjustment phase in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the end of the adjustment and then buy [46].