Market Overview - As of July 28, Hong Kong's three major indices closed mixed, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.68% at 25,562.13 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.29% at 9,177.15 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.24% at 5,664.02 points [1] - Large tech stocks showed mixed performance, while the pharmaceutical and financial sectors exhibited strong trends [1] - Notable stocks included Tencent Holdings rising nearly 1%, Kuaishou up nearly 0.5%, and Meituan down over 0.5% [1] Southbound Capital - On July 28, southbound funds net bought HK stocks worth 9.253 billion HKD, bringing the cumulative net purchase amount since 2025 to 829.282 billion HKD, surpassing last year's total net inflow of 807.869 billion HKD [2] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices closed mixed overnight, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, the S&P 500 up 0.02%, and the Nasdaq up 0.33%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new historical highs [3] - The Hang Seng Index ADR fell, closing at 25,353.70 points, down 208.43 points or 0.82% compared to Hong Kong's close [3] Key Events - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision on July 31, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining rates unchanged and possibly lowering rates twice within the year [4] - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference concluded with over 300 project procurement demands announced, with an expected procurement amount of 16.2 billion CNY, and 31 major projects signed with investments exceeding 15 billion CNY [4] - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90 points, indicating about an 11% potential upside from last Friday's closing price [4] Short Selling Data - On July 28, a total of 618 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with total short selling amounting to 25.577 billion HKD. The top three stocks by short selling amount were China Ping An at 1.385 billion HKD, Tencent Holdings at 1.274 billion HKD, and Alibaba at 973 million HKD [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities remains optimistic about opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to have significant recovery potential [6] - Recommended sectors include internet (e-commerce, local life), coal, cement, cyclical products, social services, textiles, and aviation, with a focus on high-growth and low-valuation industries [6] - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong remains strong, but attention is needed regarding potential pressure from stock unlocks in Q3 [6] Related ETFs - Key ETFs include the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892), Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), and Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) [7] - Additional ETFs include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive ETF (159323) and Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][29]. Core Insights - The beauty care sector is highlighted with the launch of the world's first "honeycomb collagen" gel product by Jinbo Biological, which shows significant advancements in cell adhesion and collagen retention [3][23]. - The report notes a general increase in the performance of retail, social services, and beauty care sectors, with respective weekly gains of +2.65%, +2.30%, and +5.42% [14][16]. - Key companies such as Proya and Huaxi Hospital are collaborating on mitochondrial anti-aging research, indicating a trend towards scientific advancements in beauty products [3][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - For the week of July 21-25, 2025, the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors saw increases of +2.65%, +2.30%, and +5.42%, ranking 14th, 17th, and 6th among 31 primary industries [14][16]. - Sub-sectors such as personal care products, tourism, and cosmetics experienced notable gains of +7.74%, +3.93%, and +3.39% respectively [16][19]. Key Industry Events and News - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the Hainan Free Trade Port will officially close on December 18, 2025, which is expected to enhance trade conditions [3][23]. - Jinbo Biological launched a new injectable collagen gel product, which is expected to significantly improve skin treatment outcomes [3][23]. - Proya and Huaxi Hospital have partnered to focus on mitochondrial anti-aging research, which may lead to innovative product developments [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry sectors, suggesting specific stocks such as Proya, Giant Biological, and Marubi [5][29]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in these sectors, particularly in light of recent product innovations and market trends [5][29].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight," indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 10% in the next 6-12 months [31]. Core Insights - The weekly average trading volume on the North Exchange reached 31.08 billion yuan, a 42.4% increase compared to the previous week, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 2.85% [5][12]. - Key stocks that performed well included Hengli Drilling Tools (up 184.1%), Tietuo Machinery (up 64.9%), and Jikang Instruments (up 51.1%) [12][15]. - Significant news includes a record-breaking humanoid robot project by UBTECH worth 90.51 million yuan and the commencement of a 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower project in Tibet [14][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The North Exchange's average daily trading volume was 31.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 42.4% week-on-week increase, with a daily turnover rate of 3.3% [5][6]. - The North Exchange 50 index saw a weekly increase of 2.85% [5]. Key News and Policies - A humanoid robot project by UBTECH set a global record with a contract worth 90.51 million yuan, with plans to deliver 500 units within the year [14]. - The 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River has officially commenced, expected to boost the infrastructure sector [16]. Core Driving Factors - Regulatory deepening and institutional optimization are progressing alongside the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC), which showcased advancements in AI and robotics [26]. - The infrastructure sector is gaining momentum due to the Yarlung Tsangpo project, with increased activity in related industries [27]. - Market sentiment is improving with a return of liquidity, although volatility remains low [28]. Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Focus on sectors aligned with new productive forces, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and new energy equipment, prioritizing companies with technological barriers and scarce products in the A-share market [29]. - Emphasize growth companies with revenue and profit growth exceeding 20% and R&D intensity above 5%, while avoiding high-valuation sectors lacking performance support [29]. - Monitor event-driven catalysts, including project announcements and mergers, which may disrupt the current low-volatility environment [29].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the marginal changes in the "heat" (attention) of broad-based indices. By identifying the index with the highest weekly heat change rate, the strategy rotates into that index. If the "Other" group (stocks not included in the four main indices) has the highest heat change rate, the strategy remains in cash[7][13]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly heat change rate for the components of four major indices (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000) and the "Other" group. 2. Smooth the weekly heat change rate using a 2-week moving average (MA2). 3. At the end of each week, invest in the index with the highest MA2 heat change rate. If the "Other" group has the highest rate, remain in cash[13][16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates a clear logic of leveraging market sentiment shifts to generate returns[13]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 8.74% since 2017[16] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.5%[16] - **2025 YTD Return**: 20.9%[16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Total Heat Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: The total heat indicator aggregates the attention metrics (e.g., browsing, watchlist additions, and clicks) of individual stocks. It is normalized as a percentage of the total market and scaled by 10,000. This indicator serves as a proxy for market sentiment[7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Aggregate the browsing, watchlist, and click counts for each stock. 2. Normalize the aggregated value as a percentage of the total market. 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to obtain the total heat indicator, with a range of [0, 10,000][7]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures market sentiment and can be used to identify mispricing due to overreaction or underreaction[7]. 2. Factor Name: Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the weekly change in the total heat indicator, smoothed using a 2-week moving average. It reflects short-term sentiment dynamics[13][20]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly change rate of the total heat indicator for each stock. 2. Smooth the weekly change rate using a 2-week moving average (MA2)[13][20]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is useful for identifying short-term sentiment-driven opportunities in broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[13][20]. 3. Factor Name: Concept Heat Ranking - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor ranks concepts based on their weekly heat change rates. It identifies the top and bottom concepts for constructing portfolios[28][31]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Rank concepts by their weekly heat change rates. 2. Select the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rates. 3. Construct two portfolios: - **TOP Portfolio**: Select the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within each of the top 5 concepts. - **BOTTOM Portfolio**: Select the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within each of the top 5 concepts[31]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor captures the behavioral tendencies of investors, leveraging the rapid price adjustments in high-attention stocks[28][31]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Total Heat Indicator - **No specific backtesting results provided** 2. Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **No specific backtesting results provided** 3. Concept Heat Ranking - **BOTTOM Portfolio Annualized Return**: 15.71%[33] - **BOTTOM Portfolio Maximum Drawdown**: 28.89%[33] - **2025 YTD Return for BOTTOM Portfolio**: 29.2%[33]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for leading companies in the electric bicycle sector due to the new national standards [2][4]. Core Insights - The implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles on September 1 is expected to benefit leading companies in the industry, as it will lead to a market reshuffle and increased demand for compliant products [2][4]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port's upcoming closure on December 18, 2025, is anticipated to benefit sectors such as duty-free and tourism, with significant tax policy changes that will enhance market activity [2][4]. - The consumer sector showed a positive performance in the last week of July, with various sub-sectors experiencing notable gains, indicating a recovery trend in consumer spending [4][6]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw an overall increase, with specific sub-sectors like beauty care (+5.42%) and retail (+2.65%) leading the gains. Notable stocks included ST Xifa (+9.89%) and Rainbow Group (+37.81%) [4][6]. - The new electric bicycle standard is expected to drive demand and push out non-compliant brands, benefiting major players with strong brand recognition and resources [2][4]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance announced a subsidy program for elderly care services, which will begin in select provinces in July 2025, potentially boosting related service providers [15][18]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port's tax policy changes will significantly expand the range of zero-tariff goods, enhancing the competitiveness of local businesses and stimulating trade [17][18]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the home appliance sector, with a projected decrease in air conditioner production due to unmet sales targets during promotional events [15][18].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electric bicycle industry due to the implementation of new national standards, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the sector [2][6]. Core Insights - The new national standard for electric bicycles (GB17761—2024) will be implemented starting September 1, 2025, which will lead to a market reshuffle favoring top-tier companies. The standard imposes stricter safety and performance requirements, prompting the replacement of non-compliant vehicles and stimulating market demand through "old-for-new" subsidy policies [2][6]. - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to benefit sectors such as duty-free and tourism, with significant tax policy changes that will enhance market activity and attract more visitors [2][6]. - The consumer sector has shown positive performance, with various sub-sectors experiencing notable weekly gains, indicating a robust recovery in consumer spending [2][6]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw an overall increase, with specific sub-sectors like beauty care and retail showing significant weekly gains of +5.42% and +2.65%, respectively. Notable stocks included ST Xifa (+9.89%) and Rainbow Group (+37.81%) [2][10]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The implementation of the new electric bicycle standards is anticipated to lead to increased market concentration, benefiting established players with strong brand recognition and technological capabilities [2][19]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port's tax policy changes will expand the range of zero-tariff goods from 1,900 to 6,600 items, significantly enhancing trade facilitation and market dynamics [2][21]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of leading companies in the duty-free and tourism sectors as they are likely to benefit from increased consumer activity and favorable policies [2][19].

60 只公募基金持有转债规模超 10 亿元。截止 2025Q2，持有转债市值超 10亿元的基金（不包含可转债基金）共有60只，合计持有转债市值1709.87 亿元，环比 25Q1 下降 3.41%，占投资转债公募基金市值的 62.71%；持 有转债市值超 1 亿元的基金（不包含可转债基金）共有 311 只，合计持有 转债市值 2494.35 亿元，环比 25Q1 下降 3.30%，占投资转债公募基金市 值的 91.48%。 固定收益点评 可转债基金持有转债市值环比下降 3.42%，转债仓位和杠杆率均小幅上 升。截止 2025Q2，可转债基金（同花顺开放式基金分类中的可转换债券 型基金）共计 40 只，持有转债市值共计 852.33 亿元，较 2025Q1 下降 30.22 亿元，环比下降 3.42%。可转债仓位由 25Q1 的 84.49%上升至 84.99%，环比上季度上升 0.50pcts。由于转债供需趋紧、权益主题行情不 断，可转债基金的转债仓位继续上行。与此同时，可转债基金资产净值下 降速率高于基金资产总值下降速率，转债基金杠杆率由 137%上升至 142%，增长了 5pcts。 供给减少，基金如何调 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - External negative factors are improving faster than expected, suggesting the market may reach new heights in the second half of the year[2] - The Hang Seng Index has the potential to break resistance levels with only a risk sentiment adjustment needed[3] - The third round of the Hong Kong stock market rally may start earlier than previously anticipated, driven by the Hang Seng Technology Index[12] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Focus on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, such as e-commerce and local services, which are showing signs of stabilization[3] - The technology sector is at the intersection of recovery and low valuation, making it suitable for institutional investors to "buy low"[3] - The coal, cement, and cyclical goods sectors may accelerate their recovery due to the "anti-involution" policy[3] Group 3: Capital Flow and Valuation - Southbound trading accounts for 40% of the turnover, indicating a shift in the importance of foreign capital in the Hong Kong market[5] - The AH premium is expected to decrease to around 26% or lower, driven by a weaker dollar and market dynamics[6] - Corporate earnings are improving, with the MSCI China Index's EPS expected to rise for the third consecutive year in 2025[7] Group 4: Long-term Investment Themes - Two long-term investment themes are highlighted: large financials and technology, which are seen as core assets for differentiated allocation in the Hong Kong market[7] - The Hong Kong capital market is undergoing profound changes, with policies supporting its status as an international financial center[7]

Market Overview - The market reached a new high of 3613.02 points, indicating a strong performance in 2023, with increasing discussions about a potential bull market [1] - Private equity funds have shown significant returns, with some achieving nearly double returns in the new consumption sector, while the average return for most funds is around 10-12% [1][2] Sector Performance - The main sectors that saw increased holdings among private equity funds include pharmaceuticals, light industry manufacturing, and computers, with pharmaceuticals contributing over 20% to returns [1][2] - Conversely, sectors like oil and coal have been major detractors from performance [2] Investment Strategies - Many established private equity funds have consistently outperformed the market, with notable managers maintaining strong performance despite market challenges [3] - A shift towards new consumption and technology sectors is evident, with funds increasing allocations to industries like innovative pharmaceuticals and artificial intelligence [2][4] Emerging Trends - New consumption is likened to the wine industry from a decade ago, with a focus on innovative products that create new demand [20] - The investment landscape is evolving, with a growing emphasis on companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences and technological advancements [11][12] Future Outlook - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests continued interest in emerging growth assets, particularly in technology and cyclical industries, as funds seek opportunities amidst economic uncertainties [12][39] - The real estate sector is experiencing significant differentiation, with high-quality properties in prime locations still in demand, while lower-quality assets struggle [21][22] Key Insights from Fund Managers - Fund managers emphasize the importance of understanding market dynamics and maintaining a focus on long-term investment strategies, particularly in sectors with strong growth potential [8][9] - The need for a cautious approach is highlighted, with an emphasis on identifying companies with solid cash flow and sustainable business models [40][41]

Core Insights - As of July 22, the latest market financing balance reached 1,919.613 billion yuan, an increase of 15.048 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Among the 23 primary industries under Shenwan, the electronic industry saw the largest increase in financing balance, rising by 2.381 billion yuan [1] - The industries with notable increases in financing balance also include pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, and machinery, with increases of 1.413 billion yuan, 1.359 billion yuan, and 1.126 billion yuan respectively [1] - Conversely, eight industries experienced a decrease in financing balance, with the computer, home appliance, and retail industries seeing the largest declines of 0.114 billion yuan, 0.095595 billion yuan, and 0.090656 billion yuan respectively [2] Industry Financing Balance Changes - The coal industry had the highest growth rate in financing balance, with a latest balance of 15.839 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.48% increase [1] - Other industries with significant increases include construction decoration, banking, and building materials, with growth rates of 2.25%, 1.70%, and 1.65% respectively [1] - The steel, retail, and home appliance industries reported the largest declines in financing balance, with latest balances of 14.479 billion yuan, 21.545 billion yuan, and 26.662 billion yuan, showing decreases of 0.48%, 0.42%, and 0.36% respectively [2]