细分地区来看，主产区生产积极性高，内蒙古地区最新日均产量为14710吨，较低位累计增加1460吨。 前期检修的工厂复产后负荷不断提升，叠加新增产能投放，预计后续产量在高位继续攀升。同时，近期 宁夏、云南地区产量回升也十分明显，最新产量分别为7060吨/日、2470吨/日，均已创年内新高，且处 于近年来同期高位。其中云南地区产量处于高位主要是因为丰水期电价偏低。目前两地暂无工厂减产计 划，预计产量维持高位。 当前，锰硅需求虽表现尚可，但也存在隐忧，而供应方则维持在高位。 市场情绪迎切换 本轮锰硅价格下行呈现出基差走强的态势。引发期价下行的原因主要有以下两方面： 一方面，市场情绪发生切换，"反内卷"交易逻辑逐渐降温。前期领涨品种开始进行高位调整，乐观情绪 趋于弱化。同时，近期公布的7月国内宏观数据显示，房地产市场延续弱势，而基建投资增速下滑，进 一步加剧了市场情绪的切换。 另一方面，成本端有所松动。前期支撑锰硅价格从低位回升的主要产业逻辑是焦炭价格强势导致成本上 升。然而，自8月中旬以来，焦炭期价出现回落，主力合约价格从高位累计跌幅超过9.7%，进而带动了 锰硅期价的下行。 供应压力偏大 预期交易权重趋弱，锰硅市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for manganese - silicon is cold, showing a weak and volatile trend [1] - The trend strength of both ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of 2511 and 2601 contracts are 5622 and 5600 respectively, down 56 and 52 from the previous trading day; for manganese - silicon, the closing prices of 2511 and 2601 contracts are 5818 and 5836 respectively, down 80 and 78. The trading volumes and open interests of different contracts are also presented [1] - **Spot Data**: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, down 50; the spot price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2; the price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The ferrosilicon spot - futures price difference (spot - 11 futures) is - 272 yuan/ton, up 6; the manganese - silicon spot - futures price difference (spot - 01 futures) is - 86 yuan/ton, up 30. The near - far month price difference of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 is 22 yuan/ton, down 4; that of manganese - silicon 2511 - 2601 is - 18 yuan/ton, down 2. The cross - variety price differences of manganese - silicon 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 and manganese - silicon 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 are 196 and 236 respectively, down 24 and 26 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Product Price Information**: On August 20th, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The northern and southern quotes of silicon - manganese 6517 also decreased by 50 yuan/ton [2] - **Procurement Information**: A steel mill in Fujian set the silicon - manganese price at 6017 yuan/ton on the 19th, up 217 yuan/ton from July, with a procurement volume of 11600 tons. Hengyang Steel Pipe set the ferrosilicon price at 6030 yuan/ton, with a volume of 200 tons. Jinshenglan in Hubei set the 75B ferrosilicon procurement price at 5610 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton from August 14th, with a volume of 600 tons [2] - **Import Data**: In July 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 2743500 tons, a 2.22% increase from June and a 19.61% increase from July last year [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not be able to maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, although the current supply - side pressure is not significant, attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress. If the terminal demand continues to weaken, the short - term iron ore price may be slightly adjusted [6]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, in the short - term disordered market environment affected by emotions, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [8]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to run weakly with fluctuations, and for polysilicon, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - emotions, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment under the "anti - involution" logic [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3132 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.191%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.40%) from the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, inventory accumulation speed increased. Hot - rolled coil demand rebounded significantly, and inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are in a marginal upward state, with high production and insufficient demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 769.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.26% (- 2.00), and the position changed to 44.04 million hands [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. The daily average pig iron output increased. Port inventories increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventories increased significantly. The apparent demand for five major steel products continued to weaken [6]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Prices**: On August 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 1.32% at 5836 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 0.99% at 5622 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Environment**: Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices of related commodities, including ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, have dropped significantly. It is expected that the price will eventually return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8390 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.72% (- 235). The weighted contract position changed to 5.26445 million hands [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand remain. The operating rate is expected to rise in August, and the demand side can provide some support, but the price is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 51875 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.74% (- 385). The weighted contract position changed to 3.37155 million hands [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, and the inventory clearance speed was limited. The supply - demand situation is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1156 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China was 1060 yuan, down 30 yuan. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 2.55% [18]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, it follows macro - emotions, and the price may rise if there are substantial real - estate policies [18]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1205 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8973 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18% [19]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price center may gradually rise under the "anti - involution" logic, but the upward space is limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The manganese - silicon market is biased towards fundamentals and shows a weak and volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Silicon iron futures (2509: closing price 5500, down 210; 2510: closing price 5500, down 188). Manganese - silicon futures (2509: closing price 5842, down 184; 2510: closing price 5850, down 180) [1]. - Silicon iron trading volume (2509: 44,328; 2510: 80,527). Manganese - silicon trading volume (2509: 193,093; 2510: 55,950) [1]. - Silicon iron open interest (2509: 41,200; 2510: 62,082). Manganese - silicon open interest (2509: 114,885; 2510: 59,820) [1]. - **Spot Data**: - Silicon iron (FeSi75 - B, Inner Mongolia) price is 5400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. Silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17, Inner Mongolia) price is 5800 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Manganese ore (Mn44 block) price is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2 yuan/ton - degree. Lanthanum charcoal (small material, Shenmu) price is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spread Data**: - Silicon iron (spot - 09 futures) basis is - 100 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton. Manganese - silicon (spot - 09 futures) basis is - 42 yuan/ton, up 164 yuan/ton [1]. - Silicon iron 2509 - 2601 nearby - far - month spread is - 152 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton. Manganese - silicon 2509 - 2601 nearby - far - month spread is - 72 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [1]. - Manganese - silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 cross - variety spread is 342 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton. Manganese - silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 cross - variety spread is 262 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Silicon Iron Price**: On August 19, 72 silicon iron prices in different regions were: Shaanxi 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton, Ningxia 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton (down 50), Qinghai 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, Gansu 5450 - 5550 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton. 75 silicon iron prices in different regions were: Shaanxi 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton, Ningxia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, Qinghai 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, Gansu 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. Silicon iron FOB prices were: 72 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton, 75 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton [2]. - **Silicon - Manganese Price**: 6517 silicon - manganese northern offer was 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, southern offer was 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Manganese Ore Market**: The manganese ore market was generally stable with narrow fluctuations. In Tianjin Port, demand declined and the silicon - manganese futures market fell, cooling the market's bullish expectations. However, due to the increase in foreign market and steel tender prices and the expected demand in September, traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, limiting the price decline. The port trading atmosphere was stalemate. Tianjin Port semi - carbonate was quoted at 35, Gabon block at 40.5, South African medium - iron block at 36, South32 Australian block at 41, South African high - iron at 30. In Qinzhou Port, ore prices were generally stable, with previous high quotes回调. Semi - carbonate was quoted at 38, Gabon block at 41, South African medium - iron block at 37, South African high - iron at 31. Since the resumption of Australian ore shipments in June, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port has slowly recovered. Last week, the inventory was 368 million tons, still lower than the average of the past three years, and the port inventory accumulation was lower than market expectations, providing some support for ore prices [2][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Silicon iron trend intensity is - 1, and manganese - silicon trend intensity is - 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4].

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/8/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5400 | -80 | -100 | 5700 | 主力合约 | 5678 | -202 | -142 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5400 | -50 | -50 | 5750 | 01合约 | 5652 | -214 | -360 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5400 | -50 | -100 | 5730 | 05合约 | 5780 | -210 | -356 | | | 陕西#72 | 5380 | -70 | -70 | 5680 | 09合约 | 5500 | -210 | -320 | | | 陕西#75 | 5900 | 0 | 100 | | 主力月基差 | 22 | 12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and fluctuating trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain their current levels, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, although the current supply pressure is not significant, the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited, and the futures price may adjust slightly [6]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, due to the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically. In the long - term, the demand for both may weaken marginally [7][8][9]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon is expected to fluctuate widely [13][14]. - For glass and soda ash, both are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. In the long - term, glass prices may follow macro - sentiment, and soda ash prices are expected to have a gradually rising price center, but their upward space may be limited [16][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Price and Inventory Data - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3126 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 15,137 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 1,199 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3416 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.08%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 880 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 17,753 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [2]. b. Fundamental Analysis - Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, with production basically flat compared to last week, and the inventory accumulation rate increased. Hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, with production basically flat compared to last week, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Currently, both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are on the rise marginally, and although the profit of steel mills is good and production remains high, the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore a. Price and Inventory Data - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00), and the positions increased by 674 lots to 449,600 lots. The weighted positions were 863,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.81 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.49% [5]. b. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output increased. In the inventory, port inventories increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventories increased significantly. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Price and Inventory Data - On August 19, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 3.05% at 5842 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 3.44% at 5678 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 100 yuan/ton [7]. b. Fundamental Analysis - Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have dropped significantly. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon has not changed, and its production has increased recently. The demand for both may weaken marginally in the future [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Price and Inventory Data - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8625 yuan/ton, up 0.23% (+ 20). The weighted contract positions decreased by 15,419 lots to 537,492 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52,260 yuan/ton, down 0.04% (- 20). The weighted contract positions increased by 1889 lots to 323,092 lots [11][13]. b. Fundamental Analysis - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not changed. The demand in August can provide some support, but it is expected to fluctuate weakly. For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [12][13][14]. Glass and Soda Ash a. Price and Inventory Data - The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1160 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Central China was 1090 yuan, also unchanged. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, up 2.55% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1230 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8973 million tons, up 0.18% from last Thursday [16][17]. b. Fundamental Analysis - For glass, although the fundamentals are under pressure, the price adjustment space is limited. In the long - term, it follows macro - sentiment. For soda ash, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the upward space is limited [16][17].

Report Overview - The report is a black metal R & D report focusing on ferroalloys, including market information, market analysis, and relevant charts, dated August 19, 2025 [2] 1. Market Information Futures - SF main contract closed at 5678, down 202 for the day and 142 for the week, with a trading volume of 372,552 (up 155,765) and an open interest of 214,474 (up 18,596) [4] - SM main contract closed at 5914, down 206 for the day and 196 for the week, with a trading volume of 193,093 (up 80,701) and an open interest of 114,885 (down 27,813) [4] Spot - For ferrosilicon, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu and Tianjin it remained stable or increased slightly [4] - For silicomanganese, 6517 silicomanganese in most regions decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [4] Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon basis in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai improved, while the SF - SM spread was -236, up 4 for the day and 54 for the week [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore prices in Tianjin decreased slightly, and the price of semi - coke small materials in some regions increased [4] 2. Market Analysis Trading Strategy - On August 19, ferroalloy futures prices dropped significantly. The SF main contract fell 3.44%, and the SM main contract fell 3.37% [7] - For ferrosilicon, spot prices were weak on the 19th. Supply increased rapidly, while steel output growth was limited. After the sharp drop, the futures price is close to the cost in some regions, and short - selling profit - loss ratio is not high, so short positions can be partially reduced [7] - For silicomanganese, manganese ore and spot prices decreased. Supply also increased rapidly, and there are risks on the demand side. Similar to ferrosilicon, short - selling profit - loss ratio is not high, and short positions can be partially reduced [7] - Unilateral: Short positions can be partially reduced; Arbitrage: Consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the basis is low; Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [8] Important Information - Starting from August 19, 2025, Shagang reduced the scrap steel price by 30 yuan/ton [9] - On the 19th, the quotes of manganese ore in Tianjin Port were announced [9] 3. Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing ferroalloy main contract trends, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [11][15][19][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Title - "Supply and Demand Lack Drive, Market Fluctuates Widely - Ferroalloy Weekly Report 20250818" [1] 2. Analyst Information - Research and Consulting Department: Peng Bohan - Contact: 0371 - 58630083 - Email: pengbh_qh@ccnew.com - Professional Certificate Number: F3076814 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0016415 [2] 3. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Views - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The market had wide - range fluctuations last week, with the focus shifting down in the second half of the week. Fundamentally, production increased, demand was in a weak off - season pattern, and the market was mainly driven by macro and coal industry policies, showing a short - term range - bound and center - rising trend [4]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The market had wide - range fluctuations last week, with continuous decline from Tuesday. Fundamentally, production increased, demand was weak in the off - season, and the market was dominated by macro and coal industry policies, also showing a short - term range - bound and center - rising trend [23] 5. Summary by Variety Silicon Ferroalloy - **Supply**: 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises had a weekly output of 11.28 tons (up 3.4% week - on - week and 10.6% year - on - year), and the production increase continued to expand, with the operating rate reaching a 4 - month high [4][6]. - **Demand**: Weak and stable. The consumption of silicon ferroalloy in five major steel products was 2.03 tons (up 0.2% week - on - week and 16.5% year - on - year), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 871.63 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week and 12.04% year - on - year) [7][9]. - **Inventory**: Manufacturers' inventory decreased. Enterprise inventory was 6.52 tons (down 9.18% week - on - week and up 5.44% year - on - year), and the steel mill inventory days in July were 14.25 days (down 1.13 days month - on - month and 0.98 days year - on - year) [10][12]. - **Cost**: Prices remained stable during the week. Although some raw material prices changed slightly, the overall cost and profit situation varied in different regions [13][15]. - **Futures and Spot**: The futures market had a slight premium. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 20,916 (up 1,270 week - on - week and 7,182 year - on - year), and the basis of the 09 contract in Ningxia was - 132 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [16][18]. - **Contract Position and Precipitated Funds**: Data on position and precipitated funds were presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries were not provided in the text [19][20] Manganese Ferroalloy - **Supply**: 121 independent manganese ferroalloy enterprises had a weekly output of 20.7 tons (up 5.7% week - on - week and 3.5% year - on - year), and the production increase continued to expand, with the operating rate in Inner Mongolia rising to the highest level since March [23][25]. - **Demand**: Stable with a slight increase. The weekly consumption of manganese ferroalloy was 12.53 tons (up 0.1% week - on - week and 15.3% year - on - year), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 871.63 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week and 12.04% year - on - year) [26][28]. - **Inventory**: The decline in factory inventory slowed down. Enterprise sample inventory was 15.88 tons (down 1.67% week - on - week and 28.8% year - on - year), and the steel mill inventory days in July were 14.24 days (down 1.25 days month - on - month and 1.19 days year - on - year) [29][31]. - **Cost**: Manganese ore prices fluctuated. The inventory of manganese ore in ports increased slowly, and the cost and profit of manganese ferroalloy production in different regions changed slightly [36][39]. - **Futures and Spot**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased steadily. The number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 74,797 (down 1,248 week - on - week and 60,999 year - on - year), and the basis of the 09 contract in Inner Mongolia was 124 yuan/ton, up 20 week - on - week [32][35]. - **Contract Position and Precipitated Funds**: Data on position and precipitated funds were presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries were not provided in the text [40][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory Price - For silicon ferroalloy, the latest prices for different regions and types on August 19, 2025, are presented, including natural blocks in Ningxia (72 at 5480 yuan), Inner Mongolia (72 at 5450 yuan), etc., with corresponding daily and weekly changes. For silicon manganese, the prices of different regions and types are also given, such as Inner Mongolia 6517 at 5820 yuan, with price changes [2]. - Multiple price - related historical data charts for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including market prices, export prices, and contract closing prices [3][4][6]. Supply - For silicon ferroalloy, data on the production of 136 enterprises in China (monthly and weekly), capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the export volume of China are provided. For silicon manganese, the production in China (weekly), procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are presented [4][6]. Demand - Data on the demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to Steel Union's caliber), the production forecast of crude steel in China (monthly, in ten thousand tons), and the procurement volume of silicon ferroalloy by Hebei Iron and Steel Group are provided [4][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China (weekly), warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days in different regions are provided. For silicon manganese, the warehouse receipt quantity, effective inventory, and inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) are presented [5][7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, data on electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, production cost in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and corresponding profits are provided. For silicon manganese, the profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and different regions, as well as the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract are presented [5][7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. For example, iron ore has support as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined; rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation due to weak sector sentiment; silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a firm spot quotation; coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate at high levels; logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][5][8][9][13][16][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trend strength is 1. On August 15, 2025, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - adding list [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend Forecast**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar futures contract RB2510, the closing price was 3,155 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (- 0.88%); for hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510, the closing price was 3,419 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.20%). In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7% month - on - month, pig iron by 3.2% month - on - month, and steel decreased by 4.1% month - on - month. The trend strength of both is 0 [9][10][12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation due to weak sector sentiment; silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a firm spot quotation [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,710 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the closing price of silicomanganese 2509 was 6,026 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons month - on - month. The trend strength of both is 0 [13][14][15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Both are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal futures contract JM2601, the closing price was 1,187.5 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan (- 3.5%); for coke futures contract J2601, the closing price was 1,702 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan (- 1.6%). The trend strength of both is 0 [16][18]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. - **Fundamental Data**: The price of various log products showed different changes in terms of closing price, trading volume, and position. For example, the closing price of the 2509 log contract decreased by 2.1% week - on - week. In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed. The trend strength is 0 [20][22].