1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may see a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For the black sector, compared to short - selling, finding positions to go long for a rebound may be more cost - effective. The height of the rebound depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies. The macro factor is more important than the weak fundamentals that have been priced in [9]. - In the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and the steel consumption end still has the basis for gradual recovery [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3090 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 86,672 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.655469 million lots, down 74,279 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3240 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3286 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 120,567 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.217174 million lots, down 46,346 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, unable to effectively absorb production, and inventory continues to increase counter - seasonally [2]. - Affected by the Fed's hawkish remarks, market sentiment declined, and the consumption market cooled down in the short term. But in the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and steel consumption is expected to gradually recover [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 792.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.44% (+3.50), and the open interest changed by - 10,108 lots to 471,300 lots. The weighted open interest was 908,000 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.55 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.33% [4]. Strategy View - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded significantly, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian shipments. On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output was 236,880 tons, up 2,660 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly [5]. - High inventory still suppresses the price, but the short - term increase in pig iron output supports the iron ore demand. In the macro - vacuum period, the market is more likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 18, affected by the weakening external market sentiment, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell 1.93% to close at 5680 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) fell 1.65% to close at 5474 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy View - In the past week, the black sector continued to decline and fluctuate. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectations are expected to have a positive impact on sentiment and prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point [8]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack a major contradiction. If the commodity sentiment recovers and the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore segment. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (SI2601) of industrial silicon closed at 8980 yuan/ton, down 1.10% (-100). The weighted open - interest changed by - 451 lots to 400,728 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9350 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis was 370 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy View: The supply - side contraction trend is emerging. The demand side shows a decline in polysilicon production and a possible reduction in industrial silicon procurement demand due to the planned production cuts in the organic silicon industry. Industrial silicon may face a situation of "both supply and demand being weak". The cost side provides support, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (PS2601) of polysilicon closed at 52,210 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-445). The weighted open - interest changed by +2239 lots to 236,480 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, and the basis was 90 yuan/ton [14]. - Strategy View: Polysilicon is still caught between reality and expectations. The production in November decreased, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is still highly volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1017 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.17% (-12). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 0.18%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 5546 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 32,223 lots [17]. - Strategy View: The supply contraction is limited, and the demand is weak. The enterprise inventory is high, and the spot price is under pressure. Although there is cost support and positive policy expectations, the current supply - demand imbalance and the decline in the futures market intensify the downward pressure on prices, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1214 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.38% (-17). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 858 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 16,055 lots [19]. - Strategy View: The soda ash industry supply is still at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is mediocre. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has announced final safeguard measures on certain imported ferroalloys to protect its domestic ferroalloy industry, effective for three years until November 17, 2028 [1] Group 1: Safeguard Measures - The safeguard measures will include tariff quotas and minimum import prices for designated imported ferroalloys. If imports exceed the quotas and prices fall below the minimum, additional safeguard duties will be imposed [1] - The measures are a response to a significant increase in ferroalloy imports, which have risen by 17% from 2019 to 2024, leading to a decline in the market share of EU producers from 38% to 24% [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - Ferroalloys are critical materials used to enhance specific properties of steel, such as hardness, tensile strength, wear resistance, and corrosion resistance, and are widely applied in industries including steelmaking, construction, automotive, aerospace, and military [1] - The EU primarily imports ferroalloys from Norway, Iceland, Kazakhstan, and Brazil. To mitigate the impact of the safeguard measures on European supply chains, the EU Commission will hold consultations with Norway and Iceland every three months to assess the effects [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy market is facing a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with production profits gradually declining. The market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost center of ferroalloys may move down due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the downward space is limited. It is expected that the ferroalloy will fluctuate weakly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 29.5%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 10.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.9% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Market Review and Core Logic - **Market Review**: Yesterday, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising with a reduction in positions. Today, they followed the decline of coking coal, and the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. The view of weak fluctuations is maintained [4]. - **Core Logic**: The steel mill profitability rate has continued to decline, falling below 40%. The molten iron output has slightly decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased more than seasonally, and the ferroalloy's own inventory is also at a high level. The production profits of ferroalloys are gradually declining, and the market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The inventory pressure is large. Ferrosilicon production has started to decrease this week, and silicomanganese production has decreased for multiple consecutive weeks. The downstream demand is gradually weakening, and inventory reduction may still depend on production cuts [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Ferrosilicon production started to decrease this week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the magnesium ingot production increased by 21.96% month - on - month [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The steel peak season was not prosperous, the steel mill profit rate fell below 40%, and the negative feedback pressure was gradually increasing. The coil and plate segment is still in a situation of high inventory and high production. Although the production has decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. There is no driving force on the consumption side, and the inventory has increased more than seasonally, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Recently, Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month, with large inventory pressure [8][10]. 3.5 Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 26, the 01 - 05 spread was - 10, etc. The spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1141 week - on - week [8]. - **Silicomanganese Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270, the 01 - 05 spread was - 66, etc. The spot prices in different regions decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1750 week - on - week [9][11].

Group 1: Market Information - SF主力合约收盘价5522，日变动-140，周变动-40，成交量333802，日变化38430，持仓量132798，日变化15371；SM主力合约收盘价5680，日变动-112，周变动-84，成交量395735，日变化188526，持仓量404398，日变化45390 [2] - 硅铁现货价格方面，72%FeSi内蒙5280，日变动0，周变动-50；72%FeSi宁夏5250，日变动0，周变动-30等；锰硅现货价格方面，硅锰6517内蒙5600，日变动0，周变动-20；硅锰6517宁夏5500，日变动-50，周变动-60等 [2] - 硅铁基差/价差方面，内蒙-主力-242，日变动140，周变动-10；宁夏-主力-272，日变动140，周变动10等；锰硅基差/价差方面，内蒙-主力-80，日变动112，周变动64；宁夏-主力-180，日变动62，周变动24等 [2] - 锰矿（天津）方面，澳块当日39.7，日变动0，周变动0.5；南非半碳酸当日34.3，日变动0，周变动0等；兰炭小料方面，陕西当日820，日变动0，周变动0；宁夏当日920，日变动0，周变动0等 [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - 11月18日，铁合金期货价格整体下跌，硅铁主力合约5474，下跌1.65%，持仓增加4626手；锰硅主力合约收盘5680，下跌1.93%，持仓增加45390手 [5] - 硅铁基本面供需双弱，成本端有所支撑，18日受焦煤等整体黑色金属大跌拖累跟随调整，但自身估值水平不高，不宜追空 [5] - 锰硅在供需双弱和成本支撑背景下，预计底部震荡为主 [5] - 单边策略预计底部震荡；套利策略观望；期权策略为卖出虚值跨式期权组合 [6] - 青海某合金厂计划17日晚间停2台硅铁炉，剩余2台转产硅钡，累计减少硅铁日产100吨；18日天津港澳块Mn42%Fe3.6%报价40元/吨度，半碳酸Mn37%报价35元/吨度，澳籽Mn40.85%Fe7.14%报价35.6元/吨度 [7] Group 3: Related Charts - 包含铁合金主力合约走势回顾、盘面主力合约sf - sm价差、硅铁月间价差、锰硅月间价差、硅铁基差（主力合约 - 内蒙）、锰硅基差（主力合约 - 内蒙）、硅锰现货价格、内蒙硅锰现货价格、铁合金电价、硅铁成本与利润、硅锰成本与利润、硅铁生产成本、硅锰生产成本、硅铁生产利润、硅锰生产利润等图表 [8][9][11][13] - 硅铁生产成本方面，内蒙5450元/吨，宁夏5631元/吨等；硅铁生产利润方面，内蒙-250元/吨，宁夏-481元/吨等；硅锰生产成本方面，内蒙5742元/吨，宁夏5851元/吨等；硅锰生产利润方面，内蒙-142元/吨，宁夏-291元/吨等 [18][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback of the recent decline in the steel market has ended, and short - term price increases are mainly due to short - sellers taking profits. Steel demand has entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2]. - For iron ore, although the supply has recovered and high inventory suppresses prices, the short - term increase in hot metal production supports demand. In the macro - vacuum period, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. - For the black sector, as the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on sentiment and prices is expected to increase. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The future price increase depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [10][11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3097 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.441%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3655 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 107385 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (1.412%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 6484 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 23505 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, and inventory is accumulating against the season. In the short term, prices are likely to be weak and volatile, but there may be an inflection point in demand later [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 788.50 yuan/ton, up 2.07% (+16.00). The positions increased by 1019 lots to 48.14 million lots. The weighted positions were 90.75 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.38% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume has recovered significantly. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal output has increased, but the steel mill profitability rate is declining. Port inventory is accumulating. In the short term, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - The manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.77% at 5792 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF601) closed up 1.38% at 5566 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 34 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - As the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on the black sector is expected to increase. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9080 yuan/ton, up 0.67% (+60). The weighted contract positions decreased by 2209 lots to 401179 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 52655 yuan/ton, down 2.57% (-1390). The weighted contract positions decreased by 6818 lots to 234241 lots [16]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1029 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (-3). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 11.10 million cases (0.18%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1231 yuan/ton, up 0.41% (+5). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 0.69 million tons (0.18%) [21]. Strategy Viewpoints - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints explicitly stated in the provided content Summary by Directory Price - For silicon ferroalloy on November 18, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5150 and 5200 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 0 and -20. The factory - price converted to the futures market was 5450 and 5550. The main contract price was 5566, with a daily change of 76 and a weekly change of -22 [2]. - The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 US dollars, with a daily and weekly change of -15; Tianjin 75 was 1080 US dollars, with a daily and weekly change of -20 [2]. - For silicon manganese, the factory - ex prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5600, 5550, 5600, 5580, and 5580 respectively. The main contract price was 5792, with a daily change of 44 and a weekly change of -28 [2]. Supply - There are historical data charts on the production, capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, and the production of silicon manganese in China, which can reflect the supply situation of the iron alloy industry over the years [4][6]. Demand - There are data on the demand for silicon manganese in China (Steel Union's data), the production of crude steel and stainless - steel in China, and the procurement volume and price of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, which can reflect the demand side of the iron alloy industry [4][6][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, there are data on the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5]. - For silicon manganese, there are data on the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China and the inventory average available days in China [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, there are data on electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, semi - coke production profit, and the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5]. - For silicon manganese, there are data on the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions, and the profit of silicon manganese converted to the main futures contract in Guangxi and Ningxia [7].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/11/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,792.00 | +44.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,566.00 | +76.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 595,470.00 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 17, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon ferroalloy (SF) main contract closed at 5566, up 1.38% with a decrease of 2684 in open interest; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5792, up 0.77% with a decrease of 2748 in open interest. The fundamentals of both SF and SM show weak supply and demand, with cost increases driving short - term rebounds. They are expected to continue bottom - oscillating [6]. - For trading strategies, in the case of weak supply - demand fundamentals and rising costs, it is expected to be in bottom - oscillation. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Futures - SF main contract: closed at 5662, up 122 for the day and down 30 for the week, with a trading volume of 295372 (up 67133 for the day) and an open interest of 134545 (down 1747 for the day) [2]. - SM main contract: closed at 5792, up 44 for the day and down 28 for the week, with a trading volume of 207209 (up 87774 for the day) and an open interest of 359008 (down 2748 for the day) [2]. Spot - Silicon ferroalloy: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5280, unchanged for the day and down 20 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5250, unchanged for the day and week; in Qinghai, it was 5300, unchanged for the day and up 30 for the week; in Jiangsu, it was 5550, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5600, up 100 for the day and down 80 for the week [2]. - Manganese silicon: 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5600, unchanged for the day and down 20 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5550, unchanged for the day and week; in Guangxi, it was 5600, unchanged for the day and week; in Jiangsu, it was 5720, up 20 for the day and unchanged for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5700, up 20 for the day and unchanged for the week [2]. Basis/Spread - Silicon ferroalloy: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 382, down 122 for the day and up 10 for the week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 412, down 122 for the day and up 30 for the week; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 362, down 122 for the day and up 60 for the week; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 270, unchanged for the day and down 30 for the week; SF - SM spread was - 130, up 78 for the day and down 2 for the week [2]. - Manganese silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 192, down 44 for the day and up 8 for the week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 242, down 44 for the day and up 28 for the week; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 192, down 44 for the day and up 28 for the week; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 0, unchanged for the day and up 20 for the week [2]. Raw Materials - Manganese ore in Tianjin: Australian lump was priced at 39.7, up 0.2 for the day and 0.7 for the week; South African semi - carbonate was 34.3, unchanged for the day and week; Gabonese lump was 40.5, unchanged for the day and up 0.5 for the week [2]. - Lanthanum semi - coke: in Shaanxi, it was 820, unchanged for the day and week; in Ningxia, it was 920, unchanged for the day and week; in Inner Mongolia, it was 810, unchanged for the day and week [2]. Market Judgment Silicon Ferroalloy - On November 17, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price in some regions increased by 100 yuan/ton. The operating rate and output of sample enterprises on the supply side both decreased. Attention should be paid to whether a production - cut trend will form when the price reaches a low level. On the demand side, the steel inventory de - stocking statistics at the beginning of the week were good, and the concern about negative feedback was slightly alleviated. On the cost side, due to the dry season and the strong spot price of coal, the electricity prices of ferroalloys in each production area were generally stable with a slight upward trend. Overall, the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the cost increase drives a short - term rebound. It is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating trend [6]. Manganese Silicon - On November 17, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price of Australian lump in Tianjin increased by 0.2 yuan/ton degree. The manganese silicon spot was also stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price in some regions increased by 20 yuan/ton. The supply side also showed a slight decline. On the demand side, as mentioned above, the steel inventory data at the beginning of the week were good, and the concern about negative feedback was slightly alleviated. On the cost side, the domestic port inventory was at a low level in the same period, the spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the overseas manganese ore quotation also increased steadily. Coupled with a slight increase in the electricity fee in the production area, the cost side increased. Against the background of weak supply and demand and cost support, it is expected to mainly oscillate at the bottom [6]. Important Information - On November 17, the price of Australian lump Mn42.3% in Tianjin was 39.7 yuan/ton degree, the price of Gabonese lump Mn46.6% was 40.5 yuan/ton degree, and the price of semi - carbonate Mn37% was 35 yuan/ton degree [8]. - A ferroalloy plant in Zhongwei, Ningxia, carried out maintenance on one 25500kva silicon ferroalloy furnace on the afternoon of November 16, reducing the daily output by about 70 tons [9]. Related Attachments - There are multiple charts including the trend review of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, the monthly spread of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, the spot price of silicon manganese, the electricity price of ferroalloys, the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon [10][13][14][17][19][22].

Report Date - November 17, 2025 [1][4][8][13][18][21] Investment Ratings for Different Commodities - Iron Ore: Oscillating and fluctuating [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation with narrowing decline in apparent demand data [2][9] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Wide - range oscillation with narrowing decline in apparent demand data [2][9] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation with cost as the bottom support [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation with cost as the bottom support [2][13] - Coke: Following the downward adjustment [2][18] - Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation is declining [2][19] - Logs: Oscillating and fluctuating [2][21] Core Views - Each commodity in the black series has its own market trend characteristics, mainly affected by factors such as fundamentals, macro - economic data, and industry news [2][6][10] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Futures closed at 772.5 yuan/ton with no change; some spot prices remained stable, while the price of Super Special (56.5%) decreased by 2 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: In October, the year - on - year actual growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.17%. From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate was 6.1% [6] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2601, yesterday's trading volume was 769,087 lots, and the position decreased by 20,210 lots. Some spot prices changed slightly, and basis and spread values also changed [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on November 13, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 8.54 tons, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.5 tons. In terms of inventory, rebar decreased by 16.37 tons, and hot - rolled coil increased by 0.07 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 2.15 tons, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.71 tons. In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased by 86 tons month - on - month, etc. [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of some futures contracts decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese and related raw materials changed to some extent, and basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values also changed [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Jupiter and NMT announced the shipment prices of manganese ore to China in December 2025. There were also price and procurement information of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions. From January to October 2025, the total national output of silicomanganese was 903.96 tons, with Inner Mongolia accounting for 48.5% [13][14][16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [17] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. Some spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and basis and spread values also changed [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 to 2026 [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [20] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of some futures contracts changed. Spot prices of different types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable, with only slight changes in a few cases [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of American logs from November 10, 2025 [24] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on November 17, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5150 and 5200 respectively with no daily change and weekly changes of 0 and -20; the prices of Qinghai 72, Shaanxi 72, Shaanxi 75, Jiangsu 72, and Tianjin 72 also had corresponding price and change data [2] - For silicon manganese, on the same date, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, Yunnan 6517, Guangxi 6014, Ningxia 6517, and Jiangsu 6517 were provided with their daily and weekly changes [2] Supply - The report shows historical data of 136 - company silicon iron production in China (monthly and weekly, capacity ratio 95%), capacity utilization rates of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi silicon - iron production enterprises (monthly), and silicon manganese production in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 [4][6] Demand - It includes historical data on the estimated and actual production of Chinese crude steel (monthly, tons), the price and production of magnesium metal, the demand for silicon manganese in China (ten thousand tons, Steel Union caliber), and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 [4][6][7] Inventory - For silicon iron, it presents the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), CZCE silicon - iron warehouse receipt quantity (daily), effective forecast (daily), and inventory average available days in different regions from 2021 - 2025 [5] - For silicon manganese, it shows CZCE silicon - manganese warehouse receipt quantity (daily), effective forecast (daily), warehouse receipt + effective inventory (daily), and inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, tons) from 2021 - 2025 [7] Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, it provides data on electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coking coal, the cost of silicon iron production in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and profit data such as Ningxia silicon - iron discounting the main contract profit, Ningxia silicon - iron spot profit, and 75 - grade silicon - iron export profit from 2021 - 2025 [5] - For silicon manganese, it shows the profit data of Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (Steel Union caliber), Guangxi silicon - manganese discounting the main contract profit, and Ningxia silicon - manganese discounting the contract profit from 2021 - 2025 [7]