1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and provides corresponding strategy views. It points out that due to factors such as the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the tight supply of some metal raw materials, along with the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, most metal prices are expected to run strongly in the short term [3][6][9]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, market sentiment was optimistic. LME copper hit a record high. LME copper 3M contract rose 0.55% to $11,090/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 89,130 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 775 to 135,350 tons, and the domestic spot market had different performance in different regions [2]. - **Strategy View**: With the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Fed's interest rate cut as expected, the copper price is expected to continue to run in a volatile and strong manner. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 88,000 - 89,600 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is $11,000 - 11,200/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.83% to $2,870/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,315 yuan/ton. Domestic and foreign inventories showed different trends, and the market trading was average [5]. - **Strategy View**: Supply disruptions overseas and low domestic inventories, combined with improved global trade situation and Fed's interest rate cut, are expected to drive aluminum prices to run in a volatile and strong manner. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,150 - 21,450 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is $2,840 - 2,900/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rose 0.03% to 17,365 yuan/ton. SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,200 yuan/ton. Domestic and foreign inventories and various price differences had specific values, and domestic social inventory decreased to 2.53 tons [8]. - **Strategy View**: With the de - stocking of lead ore visible inventory and the improvement of demand, combined with the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, SHFE lead is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.55% to 22,440 yuan/ton. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased slightly, and overseas LME zinc had a high structural risk [11]. - **Strategy View**: With the slight increase in zinc ore visible inventory and the decline in smelter profits, combined with the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 29, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. Supply was tight due to slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some fields was weak, but there was marginal improvement in the traditional peak season [14]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the improvement of seasonal demand, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of domestic main contract is 270,000 - 292,000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is $35,500 - 37,000/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The cost of nickel ore was stable and slightly increased, and the price of nickel iron was weak [16]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, high inventory of refined nickel drags down nickel prices, but in the long term, global fiscal and monetary policies will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider building long positions when the price drops enough. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 0.24%, and the LC2601 contract closed at 82,900 yuan, up 1.54% [20]. - **Strategy View**: After continuous rise, the over - expected lithium battery demand has been reflected in the market. The short - term fundamental driving force is limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The operating range of the LC2601 contract is 81,200 - 84,100 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 29, 2025, the alumina index rose 2.16% to 2,890 yuan/ton. The inventory and prices of raw materials and products had specific values [23]. - **Strategy View**: Although the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus and there is a continuous inventory build - up trend, considering the improvement of Sino - US relations and Fed's monetary policy expectations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,805 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. Spot prices in different markets were stable, and raw material prices were mostly stable with a slight decline in high - carbon ferrochrome. Social inventory increased to 102.74 tons, with a 1.33% decrease [26]. - **Strategy View**: Downstream demand is weak, but macro - level factors improve market sentiment. However, the supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, the main AD2512 contract rose 0.56% to 20,690 yuan/ton, and domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the strong cost support, along with the tight supply due to policy adjustments, strengthen the price support [30].

Group 1 - China Aluminum's stock increased by 5.05%, reaching 10.41 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.12 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.33%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 178.59 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on September 10, 2001, and listed on April 30, 2007, is based in Haidian District, Beijing, and its main business includes exploration and mining of bauxite and coal, production and sales of alumina, primary aluminum, and aluminum alloy products, as well as international trade and logistics [1] - The revenue composition of the company shows that 97.41% comes from product sales, 1.56% from other business income, and 1.03% from service provision [1] Group 2 - One fund under Shangyin Fund holds a significant position in China Aluminum, with 103,400 shares, accounting for 3.73% of the fund's net value, making it the seventh-largest holding [2] - The Shangyin National Free Cash Flow Index A fund, established on June 26, 2025, has a current size of 6.564 million CNY and has achieved a return of 11.67% since inception [2] - The fund managers, Lu Yang and Huang Huang, have tenures of 11 years and nearly 2 years respectively, with Lu Yang managing assets totaling 926 million CNY and achieving a best return of 59.02% during his tenure [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The improvement in Sino-US relations and the release of the 15th Five-Year Plan have led to a further improvement in the macro outlook. In the short to medium term, supply disruptions and improved macro expectations are driving the rise of base metals, with copper leading the way. In the long term, potential stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to drive up prices [2]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong due to the restart of Sino-US trade negotiations and the easing of trade tensions. Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to overseas supply disruptions and a relatively low valuation compared to copper. Zinc prices are expected to decline in the long term due to an increase in supply and limited demand growth [2][8][14][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **View**: Copper prices are trending strongly due to the restart of Sino-US trade negotiations [8]. - **Logic**: The release of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the restart of Sino-US trade negotiations have improved market sentiment. Supply disruptions in copper mines and a decline in electrolytic copper production have also supported prices. However, high prices have limited demand, and inventory changes need to be monitored [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the medium term [9]. 3.2 Alumina - **View**: Alumina prices are rebounding due to increased anti-involution sentiment [9]. - **Logic**: High-cost production capacity has fluctuated, but the overall production capacity has increased slightly. Domestic inventory has continued to accumulate, and ore prices have weakened. However, the low valuation has attracted more investors, increasing the possibility of price fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to remain volatile due to an oversupply in the short term and a low valuation [12]. 3.3 Aluminum - **View**: Aluminum prices are rising due to continuous overseas supply disruptions [14]. - **Logic**: The overseas interest rate cut expectation and the release of the 15th Five-Year Plan have improved market sentiment. Although domestic production capacity has increased, overseas supply disruptions have tightened the long-term supply outlook. Demand has remained stable, and inventory depletion has slowed down. The high copper-aluminum ratio has also supported aluminum prices [14][15]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise in the short term and continue to increase in the medium term due to limited supply growth and resilient demand [15]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Aluminum alloy prices are oscillating at a high level due to an increase in warehouse receipts [16]. - **Logic**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum has supported costs. Uncertain policies and weak demand have led to a slight reduction in production, but the overall impact is limited. Demand has shown marginal improvement, and inventory has continued to increase [16]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to strong cost support and weak supply-demand improvement. In the medium term, prices are expected to remain volatile due to uncertain policy implementation and potential raw material disruptions [16][18]. 3.5 Zinc - **View**: Zinc prices are expected to decline in the long term due to an increase in supply and limited demand growth [19]. - **Logic**: The easing of Sino-US economic and trade relations and the clarity of the 15th Five-Year Plan have led to the realization of macro optimism. In the short term, zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelter profitability has improved, leading to strong production willingness. However, domestic consumption has entered the off-season, and demand is expected to be average. Although the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc has not ended, zinc prices are expected to decline in the long term [19]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term and decline in the long term due to an increase in supply and limited demand growth [19]. 3.6 Lead - **View**: Lead prices are expected to remain strongly volatile due to a high virtual-to-physical ratio in the SHFE 2512 contract [21]. - **Logic**: The spot premium has slightly decreased, and the original-to-recycled lead price difference has remained stable. The supply of waste batteries has remained stable, and the profitability of recycled lead smelters has slightly narrowed. However, the resumption of production by previously shut-down smelters has increased production. Demand has remained strong during the peak season, and lead-acid battery factories have maintained a high operating rate [21]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to remain strongly volatile due to a tight supply-demand balance, high costs, and a weak US dollar [21][22]. 3.7 Nickel - **View**: Nickel prices are oscillating due to an increase in inventory [23]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment is still dominating the market, and the static valuation is stable. The supply of nickel mines is relatively loose, and the production of intermediate products has recovered. Nickel salt prices have slightly declined, and the profitability of salt factories has improved slightly. However, the oversupply of electrolytic nickel and the large inventory have put pressure on prices [24]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to an increase in inventory [24]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: Stainless steel prices have slightly increased due to a decrease in warehouse receipts [25]. - **Logic**: Nickel iron prices have weakened, while chromium prices have remained stable. Stainless steel production has increased in September due to higher steel prices and seasonal demand. However, the demand outlook is uncertain, and inventory depletion has slowed down [25]. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to a decrease in warehouse receipts and a slight increase in prices [25]. 3.9 Tin - **View**: Tin prices are oscillating at a high level due to positive macro expectations [27]. - **Logic**: Supply constraints in the tin market have strengthened the bottom support for prices. Production delays in Wa State and a change in the RKAB approval system in Indonesia have tightened the supply outlook. However, the resumption of production by Yunxi has increased the supply of refined tin, and inventory has started to accumulate, limiting the upside potential of prices [27]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile due to continuous supply disruptions [28].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no specific investment rating for the entire industry provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market is influenced by tariff negotiation progress and the 15th Five - Year Plan. For copper, maintain a callback - buying strategy considering the tight supply at the mine end and increasing demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and hold at low prices in the long - term. For zinc, with export opportunities but poor domestic fundamentals, it's advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to different arbitrage opportunities. For nickel, due to weak fundamentals and uncertain policies, it's better to wait and see. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak with uncertain macro and policy support. For lead, prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, and it's necessary to observe the resumption of production and increase in warehouse receipts. For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term. For industrial silicon, prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. For lithium carbonate, the analysis of industrial silicon also applies as the relevant supply and demand situation is similar [1][2][3][6][10][13][16]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market influenced by tariff negotiation and 15th Five - Year Plan. Anhui's scrap copper supply has disturbances, and the uncertainty will increase in Q4 and next year. Overseas, there is no sign of warehouse delivery despite the opened export. Copper cable and aluminum cable have different starts. Maintain a callback - buying strategy, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,300 or building virtual inventory gradually [1]. Aluminum - Operating capacity is flat. PV module production is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased. There is seasonal inventory accumulation during holidays and significant destocking after holidays. The global economy shows signs of recovery, but Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, and a European electrolytic aluminum plant has reduced production. Short - term fundamentals are okay, and hold at low prices in the long - term [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated upward this week. Domestic and imported TC are declining. Domestic mines will be tighter from Q4 to Q1 next year, while overseas mines had an unexpected increase in Q2. The smelting end has a slight recovery in October. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while overseas LME inventory is decreasing. The export window is open. It's advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, gradually take profit on long - short arbitrage, and pay attention to far - month reverse arbitrage and 12 - 02 positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing. There are continuous disturbances in Indonesia's mines, and the policy has a motivation to support prices. It's better to wait and see [3]. Stainless Steel - Steel mills' production in October increased slightly. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome are stable. Inventory remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are weak with uncertain macro and policy support [3]. Lead - Lead prices increased due to spot shortages. Supply from scrap is weak, and the resumption of production of recycled lead is slow. The demand for batteries has increased, and the expected weakening of demand has reversed. The tight supply situation continues due to the lower - than - expected resumption of recycled lead production. Prices are expected to oscillate narrowly between 17,300 - 17,700, and it's necessary to observe the resumption of production and increase in warehouse receipts [6]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated this week. The processing fee at the mine end is low, and the supply has marginally recovered after the end of Yunnan Tin's maintenance. Overseas production has uncertainties. Demand is mainly rigid at high prices. The domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand. Follow the macro sentiment in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [10]. Industrial Silicon - The production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease. In Q4, the supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state with a monthly inventory accumulation of 4 - 5 million tons. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The situation is similar to industrial silicon. The supply - demand in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [16].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1,616,047,079.67 yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.00% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 51,773,291.51 yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 259.65% [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025: 1,616,047,079.67 yuan [2] - Year-on-year revenue growth: 24.00% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 51,773,291.51 yuan [2] - Year-on-year net profit growth: 259.65% [2]

Group 1 - The company has provided specific contact numbers for its investor relations management department, which are 0562-5860148, 0562-5860149, and 0562-5861326 [1] - The company has arranged for dedicated personnel to answer investor inquiries during working hours [1] - There may be instances where calls are not answered due to busy lines or personnel being temporarily unavailable due to meetings or other work commitments [1]

Core Insights - Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.05%, reaching 15.59 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 334 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.91%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 16.726 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Zhuzhou Smelter Group, established on December 20, 1993, and listed on August 30, 2004, is located in Hunan Province, China. The company specializes in the production and sale of zinc and zinc alloys, as well as industrial sulfuric acid [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes: zinc and zinc alloys (38.48%), other products (28.17%), gold ingots (13.94%), silver ingots (10.71%), lead and lead alloys (7.85%), indium ingots (0.51%), sulfuric acid (0.20%), and non-ferrous metal trading (0.14%) [1] Fund Holdings - According to data, one fund under Huaxia Fund has a significant holding in Zhuzhou Smelter Group. The Huaxia CSI 1000 Index Enhanced A (014125) held 196,000 shares in the third quarter, accounting for 0.76% of the fund's net value, making it the eighth largest holding [2] - The fund has generated an estimated floating profit of approximately 147,000 CNY today [2] Fund Performance - The Huaxia CSI 1000 Index Enhanced A (014125) was established on December 7, 2021, with a current scale of 1.09 billion CNY. Year-to-date, it has achieved a return of 31.72%, ranking 1635 out of 4216 in its category. Over the past year, the return is 32.42%, ranking 1330 out of 3877, and since inception, the return is 22.66% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Demand continues to be weak, and cost support is weakening, so stainless - steel prices are predicted to stay in a bottom - level oscillation trend [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 opened at 122,060 yuan/ton and closed at 120,560 yuan/ton, a - 1.44% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 156,296 (+26,763) lots, and the open interest was 115,046 (+6,057) lots [1]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract showed a pattern of opening low and moving lower, with weak oscillation. Although factors such as progress in China - US economic and trade consultations and rising expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut boosted risk appetite, the differentiation in macro - sentiment led to the contract's failure to continue the upward trend of overseas markets and instead pulled back due to domestic fundamentals [2]. - In the nickel ore market, there are price differences, and prices remain stable. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is about to enter the rainy season, and shipping is winding down; northern mines are mostly starting tender sales. Some downstream iron plants have the intention to replenish stocks but are in a price - pressing mindset due to production pressure. In Indonesia, the October (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the mainstream premium remained at +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Affected by the local rainy season and next - year's production preparations, Indonesian factories have recently been actively purchasing raw materials, and some are still tendering in the Philippines [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 930 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various brands mostly declined. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 31,385 (+1,605) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 251,436 (+198) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - With high inventory and a supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operations for unilateral trading, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 28, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,750 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 97,090 (-61,294) lots, and the open interest was 100,253 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The stainless - steel main contract showed a weak - oscillation trend. The market's insufficient digestion of short - term positive factors, combined with fundamental pressure and weak bullish confidence, along with the decline of Shanghai nickel, led to the stainless - steel contract following the downward trend [3]. - Spot prices also declined with the futures market. Due to continued sluggish trading, spot quotes further decreased. According to SMM, affected by the market downturn, many stainless - steel plants announced production cuts, mainly for 200 - series stainless steel. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (-150) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (-100) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was between 225 and 525 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 926.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - Due to weak demand and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. The recommended strategy for unilateral trading is neutral, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall market is influenced by tariff negotiation progress and the 15th Five - Year Plan communique. Different metals have different fundamentals and investment strategies. For copper, maintain a callback - buying idea; for aluminum, hold at low prices in the long - term; for zinc, be cautious in trading; for nickel, observe; for stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak; for lead, observe the regeneration and warehouse receipts; for tin, follow the macro - mood in the short - term and hold at low prices in the long - term; for industrial silicon, prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term; for lithium carbonate, the information about industrial silicon is repeated, and there is no specific core view for lithium carbonate presented separately [1][2][3][6][10][13][16] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai copper spot price decreased by 15, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 203, and LME inventory decreased by 1400 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is affected by tariff negotiations and the 15th Five - Year Plan. There are supply disturbances in waste copper, and the copper cable and aluminum cable start - up rates diverge [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a callback - buying idea, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,300 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price remained unchanged, the domestic alumina price decreased by 4, and LME inventory decreased by 3625 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Operating capacity is flat, photovoltaic component production is stable, there is seasonal inventory accumulation, and the European electrolytic aluminum plant has a 200,000 - ton production reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Keep an eye on terminal demand in the short - term and hold at low prices in the long - term [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the zinc price oscillated upwards, the spot premium decreased by 10, and LME inventory decreased by 1800 [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side TC is declining, demand is seasonally weak domestically and has some resistance overseas, and the export window has opened [2] - **Strategy**: Observe in the short - term, gradually take profit on domestic - foreign positive spreads, look for far - month reverse spreads, and pay attention to the 12 - 02 positive spread opportunity [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 950, and LME inventory increased by 156 [3] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad [3] - **Strategy**: Observe due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro - uncertainty [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, and the waste stainless steel price decreased by 50 [3] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is slightly increasing, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are at a high level [3] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided, but the fundamentals are overall weak [3] Lead - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the lead price increased due to spot tightness, the spot premium increased by 10, and LME inventory decreased by 2700 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side regeneration is slow, demand has reversed the weakening expectation, and the spot is in short supply [6] - **Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate narrowly between 17,300 - 17,700, and observe the regeneration and warehouse receipt increase [6] Tin - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the tin price oscillated, the position decreased by 5024, and LME inventory decreased by 25 [10] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side processing fees are low, and demand is mainly rigid. Overseas production has uncertainties [10] - **Strategy**: Follow the macro - mood in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [10] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the basis of different grades changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 141 [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply will decline in the dry season, but considering polysilicon plant maintenance, Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state with a monthly inventory accumulation of 400,000 - 500,000 tons [13][16] - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [13][16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1950, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 2000, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 404 [16] - **Fundamentals**: No specific fundamentals for lithium carbonate are presented separately, and the information about industrial silicon is repeated [16] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy for lithium carbonate is provided [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the tight supply of copper raw materials, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the main Shanghai copper contract is 87,000 - 88,600 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,900 - 11,150 US dollars/ton [3]. - After the production suspension at the Mozal aluminum plant and the production cut at the Grundartangi aluminum plant, combined with low domestic inventories and improved global trade situation, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 21,120 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,860 - 2,920 US dollars/ton [5]. - With the depletion of lead ore inventory, increased smelting start - up rate, and positive market sentiment, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [7]. - Zinc ore inventory is slightly increasing, and smelting profits are declining. With high structural risks in LME zinc and positive market sentiment, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. - In the short term, tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the improvement in peak - season demand, tin prices may remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, but in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary policies will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions if the price drops enough [16]. - After the continuous rise of lithium prices, there is a fear of high prices. Attention should be paid to supply elasticity and hedging pressure. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 79,400 - 83,200 yuan/ton [19]. - Alumina has over - capacity and continuous inventory accumulation, but with the improvement in Sino - US relations and expected loose monetary policy, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. - Stainless steel has weak demand support and declining raw material prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - With the progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, strong cost support, and tight supply, the price of cast aluminum alloy has strong support [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The LME copper 3M contract rose 0.26% to 11,029 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 87,910 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,400 to 134,575 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts slightly increased to 36,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount to the futures, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved slightly. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and tight copper raw material supply, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the main Shanghai copper contract is 87,000 - 88,600 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,900 - 11,150 US dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum rose 0.54% to 2,894 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,245 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 24,000 to 612,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 66,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The spot in East China was at a discount to the futures, and the downstream procurement willingness was still weak. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 4,000 to 466,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the production suspension at the Mozal aluminum plant and the production cut at the Grundartangi aluminum plant, combined with low domestic inventories and improved global trade situation, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 21,120 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,860 - 2,920 US dollars/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.92% to 17,360 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 4 to 2,013.5 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,225 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 23,100 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased to 25,300 tons [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the depletion of lead ore inventory, increased smelting start - up rate, and positive market sentiment, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [7]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.23% to 22,318 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 3 to 3,035.5 US dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,270 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 68,300 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 163,500 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc ore inventory is slightly increasing, and smelting profits are declining. With high structural risks in LME zinc and positive market sentiment, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 282,780 yuan/ton, down 1.18%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 43 to 5,609 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 to 2,700 tons. The 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan rose 800 to 272,300 yuan/ton. The combined start - up rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased to 29.72% [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the improvement in peak - season demand, tin prices may remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is 34,000 - 36,000 US dollars/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,560 yuan/ton, down 1.50%. The spot premium of Russian nickel was flat, and that of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 150. The price of nickel ore was stable and slightly strong, and the price of nickel iron was weak. The price of MHP was high [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, but in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary policies will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions if the price drops enough. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Five - Mineral Steel Union's lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) rose 1.37% to 81,669 yuan. The LC2601 contract closed at 81,640 yuan, down 0.32% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the continuous rise of lithium prices, there is a fear of high prices. Attention should be paid to supply elasticity and hedging pressure. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 79,400 - 83,200 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 28, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.39% to 2,829 yuan/ton. The spot in Shandong was at a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the 11 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB was 318 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was 11 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 223,400 tons [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Alumina has over - capacity and continuous inventory accumulation, but with the improvement in Sino - US relations and expected loose monetary policy, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.51%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi decreased. The raw material prices such as high - nickel iron decreased. The futures inventory was 73,896 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1,027,400 tons [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stainless steel has weak demand support and declining raw material prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy fell 0.68% to 20,575 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position slightly increased to 23,600 lots, and the volume decreased significantly. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price increased to 20,850 yuan/ton, and the import ADC12 price increased by 100 to 20,470 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased to 48,300 tons [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, strong cost support, and tight supply, the price of cast aluminum alloy has strong support [28].