Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate weakly. The steel prices still face a risk of decline from a fundamental perspective, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term hot metal production is strong. After the steel mills' replenishment is completed, if the finished product situation weakens after the holiday, the ore price may adjust downward. It is recommended to operate with a light position before the holiday and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory after the holiday [4]. - The price of the black sector may first decline to release the bearish sentiment in the market and then rise with the expectation of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Although the decline may not be deep, the market may trade on the expectations of the "15th Five - Year Plan". In the long - term, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long positions [7]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand structure improves after the holiday [12]. - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term risk of phased decline, and attention should be paid to the support levels of the main contract price and policy changes [14]. - Glass is recommended to be viewed with a slightly bullish bias in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy directions [17]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short term, with limited price fluctuations [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3114 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton (-1.67%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 272,650 tons, a net increase of 1228 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.976545 million lots, an increase of 106,096 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rebar production was basically the same as last week, the pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. However, the overall demand was weak, and the steel price still faced a risk of decline [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 28,314 tons, a decrease of 890 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.391208 million lots, an increase of 21,492 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The hot - rolled coil production declined, the apparent demand was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly. The demand was weak, and the market was in a weak volatile state [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 790.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.92% (-15.50). The position changed by -20,811 lots to 508,900 lots. The weighted position was 830,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.34% [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period. The short - term hot metal production was strong, but the steel mills' profitability declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mills' replenishment was nearly completed. If the finished product situation weakens after the holiday, the ore price may adjust downward [4]. Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On September 26, the main contract (SM601) of manganese silicon dropped significantly, closing down 1.52% at 5834 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures. Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 108 yuan/ton or -1.81%. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance around 6000 yuan/ton and the support around 5600 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. If the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances from the manganese ore end [8]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SF511) of ferrosilicon closed down 2.18% at 5660 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures. Last week, the ferrosilicon price fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 90 yuan/ton or -1.57%. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance around 5800 yuan/ton and the support around 5400 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There are no obvious contradictions and drivers in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon, and it is likely to follow the trend of the black sector [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon was 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.05% (-95). The weighted contract position changed by -17,816 lots to 482,212 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period, with a basis of 340 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of -60 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuated downward on Friday. The supply and demand have not changed significantly in the short term. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand structure after the holiday [11][12]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon was 51,465 yuan/ton, up 0.19% (+100). The weighted contract position changed by -1661 lots to 240,274 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.55 yuan/kg, all unchanged from the previous period. The basis was 1085 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current futures price is at a discount to the spot price. There is no significant progress in capacity integration and downstream price transmission. There is a short - term risk of phased decline in prices, and attention should be paid to support levels and policy changes [14]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1252 yuan/ton, down 1.42% (-18). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1220 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1220 yuan, up 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, a decrease of 1.553 million cases (-2.55%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 30,926 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 19,222 lots [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass futures market showed a wide - range volatile pattern. The terminal demand was weak, and the supply was abundant. The inventory performance varied by region. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias in the short term and pay attention to subsequent policies [17]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1293 yuan/ton, down 1.67% (-22). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1203 yuan, down 22 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons (-2.55%), including a decrease of 83,700 tons in heavy soda ash inventory and a decrease of 20,400 tons in light soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 9095 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 1242 lots [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soda ash market was generally stable with slight fluctuations. The production was stable, and the demand was weak. It is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short term [19].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a projected decline in China's soda ash (sodium carbonate) production in July 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [1] Industry Summary - As of July 2025, China's soda ash production is expected to reach 3.1 million tons, reflecting a decrease compared to previous years [1] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of soda ash in China is reported at 23.202 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 4.4% [1] - The data indicates a trend of fluctuating production levels within the soda ash industry, which may impact market dynamics and investment opportunities [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the soda ash sector include Yuanxing Energy, Sanyou Chemical, Shandong Haihua, Shuanghuan Technology, Chlor-Alkali Chemical, Jinjing Technology, Hubei Yihua, Yuntu Holdings, and Hebang Biotechnology [1] - These companies may be affected by the projected production trends and market conditions outlined in the report, influencing their operational strategies and financial performance [1]

Summary of the Soda Ash Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The soda ash industry experienced a total production increase of 1.8% year-on-year to 28.19 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, but the capacity utilization rate decreased by 100 basis points to nearly 25% [1][2] - Heavy soda ash production decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, while light soda ash production increased by 6%, indicating structural changes in the market [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - The real estate market downturn significantly impacted flat glass demand, leading to an 18% decrease in photovoltaic glass production in 2025, although light soda ash demand grew by 10% [1][4] - Exports of soda ash surged, with a year-on-year increase of over 100% from January to July, while imports nearly stagnated, resulting in an estimated total import-export volume of about 2 million tons for the year [1][5] - The production methods of ammonia soda and joint soda are facing losses, while natural soda still has profit margins [1][6] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to generate over 700,000 tons of additional soda ash demand annually, with policies likely to prevent raw material price increases [1][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The soda ash market is currently under significant supply pressure, despite a reduction in heavy soda ash production and an increase in light soda ash production [3] - The overall demand for flat glass has seen a notable decline, with a 6.6% drop in demand in the first nine months of the year [3][8] - The cumulative glass production in 2025 is expected to decrease by 8%, but monthly production has exceeded the previous year's levels since September, leading to inventory accumulation [8][10] Future Projections - By the end of 2026, new soda ash capacity is projected to reach 6.3 million tons, bringing total capacity to over 47 million tons, indicating significant supply pressure ahead [1][9] - The top five companies in the industry hold a market concentration of 42%, suggesting increased competition [9] Profitability and Cost Structure - Current losses for ammonia soda production are approximately 300 RMB/ton, while joint soda production faces a loss of 100 RMB/ton [6][13] - Natural soda production remains profitable, with a selling price of approximately 900-1,000 RMB/ton against a cost of 700 RMB/ton, yielding a profit of over 200 RMB/ton [6][13] - The production costs for ammonia soda and joint soda differ, with ammonia soda being more cost-effective due to lower raw material prices [13] Inventory and Market Balance - The soda ash market is currently in a state of oversupply, with an excess of 1.39 million tons in 2025, despite an increase in exports to 1.9 million tons [18][28] - The forecast for 2026 indicates a potential supply-demand gap of 4.5 million tons, necessitating production cuts to achieve market balance [19][28] Conclusion - The outlook for the soda ash and glass markets is not optimistic, with a need for supply clearing to restore market balance [20] - The industry faces challenges from high inventory levels and the need for production adjustments to cope with declining demand, particularly from the real estate sector [25][28]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Soda Ash Industry Industry Overview - China has become the world's largest soda ash producer, accounting for 51% of the global market share [1][2] - The industry is entering a new expansion phase with significant new capacity expected in 2023-2024, primarily utilizing low-cost production methods [1][2] - An estimated 5.8 million tons of new soda ash capacity is projected for 2025, with 2.8 million tons from Yuanxing Energy [1][7] Market Dynamics - By the first half of 2025, the soda ash market is expected to experience oversupply, with an operating rate around 80% and inventory levels reaching approximately 3 million tons [1][8] - The price spread of soda ash has adjusted to historical lows since 2009 due to a decrease in coal prices [1][8] - Demand is primarily driven by the glass industry, which accounts for over 70% of consumption, with flat glass applications making up 40% [1][8] Production Methods and Cost Structure - The soda ash industry mainly utilizes two production methods: synthetic and natural soda ash, with synthetic methods dominating at about 70% [4] - Natural soda ash production is more cost-effective, with costs around 600 RMB/ton compared to 1,200 RMB/ton for synthetic methods [3][12] - Companies like Boyuan Chemical, which utilize natural soda ash production, are expected to achieve significant profits due to their cost advantages [3][11] Policy Impact - National policies are driving the upgrade and elimination of outdated production facilities, with 30% of facilities being over 20 years old [9][10] - By 2025, 10% of non-compliant capacity must be phased out, which will enhance industry efficiency and environmental standards [10] Investment Opportunities - Companies with natural soda ash advantages, such as Boyuan Chemical, are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their significant cost advantages and market share potential [11][12] - Boyuan Chemical's total capacity is expected to reach 9.6 million tons by the end of 2025, representing nearly 20% of the domestic market [3][11] Future Trends - The soda ash industry is expected to shift towards low-cost and environmentally friendly production methods, with increased reliance on natural soda ash [15] - China's export ratio for soda ash is currently low at 7%, indicating potential for market expansion through increased exports [15] - Companies like Zhongyan Chemical are also positioned for growth by leveraging low-cost production advantages [16] Coal Price Impact - Fluctuations in coal prices significantly affect the profitability of soda ash producers, with synthetic method producers facing higher cost pressures compared to those using natural methods [17]

Report Overview - **Title**: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - **Date**: September 28, 2025 - **Author**: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Short - term oscillatory market, with a weakening bias in the short - term for single - side trading [2] - Soda Ash: Medium - term oscillatory market [3] 2. Report's Core Views Glass - Short - term, it's an oscillatory market. The market was affected by the denial of production cuts by other industry associations and the approach of the National Day holiday, with weakening support on the futures market. In the medium - term, the high premium of the 01 contract restricts market rise, but the seasonal improvement in the real estate market in the fourth quarter justifies a certain premium. Policy support for anti - involution and anti - deflation should be noted [2]. Soda Ash - It is a medium - term oscillatory market. The high production and high inventory situation persists. Either large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass market can drive a positive feedback. Attention should be paid to the actual improvement in the glass industry and the implementation of anti - involution measures in soda ash [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - There were no water - releasing, ignition, or plate - guiding production lines for float glass during the week, with stable weekly production. As of September 25, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons per day) after excluding zombie lines, including 225 in production and 71 on cold - repair shutdown. The daily output of national float glass was 160,200 tons, the same as on the 18th [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines is 11,680 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines is 13,210 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially new - ignited production lines is 14,790 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially复产 production lines is 10,730 tons; and the total daily melting volume of potentially cold - repaired production lines is 8,100 tons per day [6][7][8][9][11]. - Short - term production reduction space is limited, and capacity is expected to change little in the fourth quarter. The current in - production capacity is about 160,000 tons per day, with a peak of 178,000 tons per day in 2021 [13][14]. Demand - As of September 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.5 days, a 1.0% month - on - month increase and a 2.9% year - on - year increase. Most deep - processing orders in major regions across the country have not improved significantly in September, with most orders being scattered, and the overall profit remaining low [2]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million heavy boxes, a 1.553 - million - heavy - box (2.55%) month - on - month decrease and an 18.56% year - on - year decrease. The inventory days were 25.4 days, 0.6 days less than the previous period. Inventories in North China, Central China, and East China generally decreased [2]. Price and Profit - Transactions were stable, with prices rising by 40 - 80 yuan per ton this week. The price in Shahe was around 1,210 - 1,270 yuan per ton; in Hubei, Central China, it was around 1,180 - 1,240 yuan per ton; and in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, East China, it was around 1,320 - 1,400 yuan per ton. The spot price changed little recently, with the basis and the spread between months strengthening. The profit for petroleum coke was about 61 yuan per ton, and the profits for natural gas and coal fuels were about - 151 and 95 yuan per ton respectively [17][21][26]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The domestic photovoltaic glass market had good overall transactions, with prices oscillating strongly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was about 13 yuan per square meter, flat month - on - month; and the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels was about 20 yuan per square meter, also flat month - on - month [46][48]. Capacity and Inventory - There were little recent changes in capacity, with improved trading and declining inventory. There were 408 in - production photovoltaic glass production lines nationwide, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons per day, flat month - on - month and a 14.28% year - on - year decrease. The sample inventory days were about 14.65 days, a 2.50% month - on - month decrease [50][51][55]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The production facilities of soda ash enterprises were generally stable with minor adjustments, and the supply increased. This week, the domestic soda ash production was 776,900 tons, a 31,200 - ton (4.19%) week - on - week increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 89.12%, a 3.59% week - on - week increase. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash reached 430,000 tons per week [3][62]. Inventory - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was about 1.652 million tons, including 730,000 tons of light soda ash and 922,000 tons of heavy soda ash [64][65]. Price and Profit - The market price changed little. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were around 1,210 - 1,400 yuan per ton. The basis and the spread between months showed that the near - month contracts were under pressure due to high production and high inventory. The profit for the joint - alkali process in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 77 yuan per ton, and the profit for the ammonia - alkali process in North China was - 37 yuan per ton [74][75][80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [3] - Soda Ash: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [3] - Silicomanganese: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [5] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [5] 2. Core Views - **Glass & Soda Ash**: The trading sentiment is high, and prices are expected to be volatile. Glass consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, while soda ash faces supply - demand contradictions, especially with the ignition of Yuanxing's Phase II project [1][2]. - **Silicomanganese & Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment has improved, and alloys are expected to trade in a wide range. The supply - demand situation for both is relatively loose, and prices are likely to follow the sector's fluctuations [4]. 3. Market Analysis Glass - **Futures**: The glass futures on the previous day oscillated upward, with the main 2601 contract rising 3.08%, and near - month contracts rising more than far - month contracts [1]. - **Spot**: Spot trading was mainly for pre - holiday restocking. With the price increase, glass production and sales improved month - on - month. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.01%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 59.355 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 2.55% [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Glass supply is generally stable. Consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, with limited overall inventory changes. The large premium on the futures market stimulates spot - futures purchases. The fundamentals still suppress prices, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and peak - season demand [1]. Soda Ash - **Futures**: The soda ash futures on the previous day oscillated upward, with the main 2601 contract rising 1.15%, and all contracts rising to varying degrees [1]. - **Spot**: Spot trading was mainly for pre - holiday rigid - demand restocking. This week, domestic soda ash production was 776,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.19%; inventory was 1.6515 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.61% [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Supply - demand contradictions in soda ash still exist. With the ignition of Yuanxing's Phase II project, future supply pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to whether speculative demand weakens, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. The current premium on the futures market suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to new capacity production progress and inventory changes [2]. Silicomanganese - **Futures**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures closed at 5,938 yuan/ton on the previous day, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: The silicomanganese spot market performed averagely. The price in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: This week, silicomanganese production decreased month - on - month, while hot metal production increased slightly. Downstream demand for silicomanganese still has resilience, and the inventory of silicomanganese alloy enterprises has increased. In the long term, supply - demand is relatively loose, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [4]. Ferrosilicon - **Futures**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5,786 yuan/ton on the previous day, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: The ferrosilicon spot market sentiment was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,900 - 6,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: This week, ferrosilicon production remained flat, demand declined, and factory inventory decreased month - on - month. The supply - demand in the ferrosilicon industry is still relatively loose. Without industrial policies, profits are still suppressed. Prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations, and attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [4]. 4. Strategies - **Glass**: Expect price oscillations [3] - **Soda Ash**: Expect price oscillations [3] - **Silicomanganese**: Expect price oscillations [5] - **Ferrosilicon**: Expect price oscillations [5] - **Inter - period Spread**: No strategy [3] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No strategy [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Crude oil, methanol, gold, silver, copper, iron ore, corn, lithium carbonate [6] - **Bearish Outlook**: Zinc, cotton, apple, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM) [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The scale of China's public - offering funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with bond funds slightly decreasing due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The US GDP growth rate in Q2 was revised up, and the PCE price index indicated persistent inflation. The market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. - For the stock index, September was more volatile, in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - The SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia will ban diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - The glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash was being digested. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day 3.1.1 International News - The US GDP in Q2 was revised up to an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [7]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce included three US entities in the export control list and three Taiwan - related US entities in the unreliable entity list [8]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed measures to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and relevant departments are studying regulatory measures [9]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, ICE No. 11 sugar, CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, CBOT corn, and CBOT soybean oil all rose, while LME copper and CBOT soybean meal fell [11]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index**: After the decline of US indices, the previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The financing balance increased. In the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has started [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after hitting the bottom. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity. The domestic economic situation was still in adjustment. With the Fed's rate cut, the central bank's policy space has increased, but policy adjustment needs central government deployment. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and neutral on short - term bonds [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia restricted fuel exports, and the global decline rate of oil and gas field production accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the coastal inventory decreased. It is short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell slightly. Supply may increase, the bonded area inventory decreased, and tire production increased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Prices follow the cost, and future demand and supply policies should be monitored. It may fluctuate within a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend paused. The Fed's rate - cut stance was cautious, but the rate - cut prospect was clear. The long - term driver for gold was still there, but there was short - term adjustment [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose slightly at night. The smelting output may increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. It may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased. Inventory was being digested rapidly. It may fluctuate in the short - term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi should be monitored [23]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products improved, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills resumed production, and iron ore demand was supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remained stable, and supply pressure increased. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market is expected to be bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal fell at night, and rapeseed meal was strong. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period ended early. Domestic soybean meal may fluctuate at a low level [28]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils were strong at night. The impact of floods in Malaysia on palm oil production was limited. After digesting the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, oil prices rebounded [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but pressured by imports. Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. International supply pressure still exists, and domestic new - cotton purchase is in focus. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC rebounded. Shipping companies signaled post - holiday price support, but success depends on cargo volume and capacity control. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [32].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-26 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1220元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1315元/吨，基差为-95元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大 ...

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